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Abstract
This paper discusses the development and application of an
Excel spreadsheet program for history matching and
forecasting gas production from shale wells in the
Appalachian, Michigan, or Illinois basin. The program is
simulation-based and uses 1,000 to 3,000 simulation runs to a
maximum time of 30 years. The simulation runs are made
using a matrix of key reservoir parameters specific to the area
of study. The output gas and water production from the
simulation runs is incorporated into a worksheet in such a
manner that any single forecast may be easily selected. The
user selects a combination of input parameters from dropdown menus, and graphs of simulated gas and water
production are instantly generated on the main worksheet
screen.
Observed gas and water production data are entered into a
separate worksheet for history matching and are plotted
together with the simulated data. On the main worksheet, the
drop-down menus are used to find the simulation input
parameters that result in the best overall history match. Once
a match is obtained, the user may easily export the 30-year
simulated gas forecast for economic analysis.
This tool provides a simple method to quickly analyze
short-term production data when no other means is available.
Also, this tool can be easily adapted to different geological
settings including shales, coals, and sandstones.
Introduction
Over the past 10 to 15 years spreadsheet software, including
EXCEL, has evolved to such an extent that it is now
possible to create very powerful spreadsheet programs
without tedious line-by-line code development.
These
programs can include high-quality graphics and complicated
mathematical functions.
With the use of macros and display boxes,1 modern
spreadsheet software provides the capability for a userfriendly interface with little or no programming. Hence
commercial application software can be developed in
EXCEL or other spreadsheet products.
In reservoir engineering we often history match single-well
production data using a reservoir simulator. This involves
four steps: preparing an ASCII file with time and daily or
monthly rate and cumulative production of each flowing
phase, setting up an input dataset containing a description of
the reservoir under study, making multiple (often 20 or more)
simulation runs with different combinations of parameters, and
preparing graphs of simulated and actual data. This is, at best,
a very tedious, time-consuming process.
Once this spreadsheet is set up for a particular geologic
setting, it simplifies the process of history matching. A userfriendly interface is provided to allow the engineer to quickly
compare observed gas and water production to simulated data.
A reservoir simulator is not required.
Description of Software
The software we developed is simulation-based and
incorporates the results of several thousand simulations into a
user-friendly Excel spreadsheet for comparison with actual
production data. Specific values of key reservoir parameters
controlling production are defined for making the simulation
runs and FORTRAN pre- and post-processors are used to assist
in generating the simulator input files and in preparing
simulated production forecasts in a convenient format for use
in the spreadsheet.
Each spreadsheet is designed for a specific geologic target.
Some properties are fixed for the simulation runs. These
Area
(acres)
40
80
120
160
Pressure
(psia)
250
350
450
550
Initial
Water
Saturation
(percent)
100
80
Porosity
(percent)
0.1
0.3
1.0
Permeability
(md)
1
2
4
10
20
Natural
Fracture
Spacing
(ft)
1
3
6
12
20
SPE 57439
aooo1.sim
aooo2.sim
:
:
:
:
Reservoir
Simulator
aooo1.out
aooo2.out
:
:
:
:
Params.inp
Template.sim
Fortran
Pre - Processor
Params.prn
RUNSIM.BAT
OUTSIM.BAT
Simulator Input Files
aooo1.sim
aooo2.sim
:
:
:
:
Time.dat
aooo1.out
aooo2.out
:
:
:
:
Fortran
Post - Processing
Summary.out
Simdata.prn
SPE 57439 A SIMULATION SPREADSHEET PROGRAM FOR HISTORY MATCHING AND FORECASTING SHALE GAS PRODUCTION
Excel Spreadsheet
for
History Matching and
Forecasting
Graphic
Rate and Cum
Plots
Forecast.out
Summary
The spreadsheet program described in this paper provides a
practical engineering method for analyzing production data
from shale reservoirs. It is simulator based but does not
require a reservoir simulator. The program may be used to
history match existing data and/or forecast 30-year production
for a specific set of reservoir properties. An economic
summary worksheet that is also provided may be used as a
screening tool for quickly evaluating the potential of new
wells or projects.
We have used spreadsheet programs for the Antrim Shale,
New Albany Shale, and New York Devonian Shale. Each
geologic setting requires a specially developed spreadsheet.
Hence, this is not a substitute for simulation. However, a
geologic-specific spreadsheet program can be extremely useful
for both history matching and estimating future production for
a wide range of reservoir properties.
Acknowledgement
The authors wish to thank the GRI management and member
companies and the New York State Energy Research &
Development Authority for their contribution and support of
this work. We also wish to thank Mr. George W. Voneiff of
MGV Energy, Inc. (formerly with S. A. Holditch &
Associates) for his contribution to the original development of
the menus and dialog boxes used in this spreadsheet
application.
References
1. Chester, Thomas: Mastering Excel 5 for Windows,
SYBEX, Inc. Alameda, CA, 1995.
2. Shalegas, A General Purpose Three-Dimensional,
Three-Phase Petroleum Reservoir Simulator, S. A.
Holditch & Associates, Inc. Users Manual, Version 3.0,
March 1992.
3. Zuber, M. D., et al.: Reservoir Characterization and
Production Forecasting for Antrim Shale Wells: An
Integrated Reservoir Analysis Methodology, paper SPE
28606 presented at the 1994 SPE Annual Technical
Conference and Exhibition, New Orleans, 25-28
September.
4. Zuber, M. D., et al.: Characterization of Michigan
Antrim Shale Reservoirs Based on Analysis of FieldLevel Data, paper SPE 29169 presented at the 1994
Eastern Regional Conference and Exhibition, Charleston,
WV, 8-10 November.
SPE 57439
SPE 57439 A SIMULATION SPREADSHEET PROGRAM FOR HISTORY MATCHING AND FORECASTING SHALE GAS PRODUCTION
550
80
0.01
Simulation File Namesand Input Parameters for all runs in this Database
FILE
Lf
(ft)
Kf
(md)
Km
(md)
Fs
(ft)
Pi
(psia)
Pay
(ft)
Area
(acres)
Swi
(frac)
FBHP
(psia)
Phim
(frac)
Phif
(frac)
VL
(scf/ton)
PL
(psia)
TOC
(%)
a0001
100
1.00E-08
250
100
40
30
0.045
0.001
197
1200
a0002
100
1.00E-08
250
100
40
30
0.045
0.003
197
1200
1000
a0003
a0004
100
100
1
1
1.00E-08
1.00E-08
1
1
250
250
100
100
40
40
1
0.8
30
30
0.045
0.045
0.01
0.001
197
197
1200
1200
9
9
1000
1000
a0005
100
1.00E-08
250
100
40
0.8
30
0.045
0.003
197
1200
1000
a0006
100
1.00E-08
250
100
40
0.8
30
0.045
0.01
197
1200
1000
a0007
a0008
100
100
1
1
1.00E-08
1.00E-08
1
1
250
250
100
100
80
80
1
1
30
30
0.045
0.045
0.001
0.003
197
197
1200
1200
9
9
1000
1000
a0009
100
1.00E-08
250
100
80
30
0.045
0.01
197
1200
1000
C l e a r T h e A c tu a l
P r o d u c ti o n D a ta
A c t u a l P r o d u c t io n ( U p t o 5 0 0 R o w s o f D a t a )
Cum
Gas
Gas
W a te r
T im e
R a te
Cum
R a te
W a te r
Cum
(D a y s)
(M sc f/ d )
(M sc f)
(S T B / d )
(S T B )
6 0 .8
1 6 .5
521
1 8 5 .7
6 ,0 4 5
9 1 .2
3 0 .2
1 ,4 3 9
2 1 9 .5
1 2 ,7 1 7
1 2 1 .6
4 8 .4
2 ,9 1 0
2 2 8 .3
1 9 ,6 5 8
152
7 7 .2
5 ,2 5 8
2 4 2 .5
2 7 ,0 3 1
1 8 2 .4
8 3 .6
7 ,7 9 8
2 0 5 .2
3 3 ,2 6 9
2 1 2 .8
1 1 8 .1
1 1 ,3 8 8
2 2 1 .7
4 0 ,0 0 8
2 4 3 .2
1 1 0 .7
1 4 ,7 5 4
1 9 2 .9
4 5 ,8 7 3
2 7 3 .6
1 2 1 .6
1 8 ,4 5 2
1 9 1 .6
5 1 ,6 9 8
304
8 7 .4
2 1 ,1 1 0
1 4 4 .6
5 6 ,0 9 3
3 3 4 .4
1 3 3 .5
2 5 ,1 6 8
1 5 5 .6
6 0 ,8 2 4
3 6 4 .8
1 4 5 .6
2 9 ,5 9 5
1 8 4 .8
6 6 ,4 4 1
3 9 5 .2
1 8 9 .2
3 5 ,3 4 5
2 2 2 .8
7 3 ,2 1 5
4 2 5 .6
2 1 2 .9
4 1 ,8 1 6
2 0 2 .9
7 9 ,3 8 4
456
2 2 1 .8
4 8 ,5 6 0
1 7 1 .3
8 4 ,5 9 2
4 8 6 .4
2 2 1 .9
5 5 ,3 0 7
1 5 7 .9
8 9 ,3 9 1
5 1 6 .8
2 0 8 .6
6 1 ,6 4 8
1 4 0 .2
9 3 ,6 5 3
5 4 7 .2
2 1 3 .5
6 8 ,1 3 7
1 4 0 .0
9 7 ,9 1 1
5 7 7 .6
2 3 0 .0
7 5 ,1 3 0
9 3 .9
1 0 0 ,7 6 6
608
2 2 6 .0
8 2 ,0 0 1
9 0 .9
1 0 3 ,5 2 9
6 3 8 .4
1 9 7 .7
8 8 ,0 1 2
9 3 .0
1 0 6 ,3 5 6
6 6 8 .8
2 2 4 .7
9 4 ,8 4 2
8 6 .9
1 0 8 ,9 9 9
6 9 9 .2
2 4 7 .7
1 0 2 ,3 7 3
1 0 7 .9
1 1 2 ,2 7 9
7 2 9 .6
2 6 3 .5
1 1 0 ,3 8 3
1 6 7 .5
1 1 7 ,3 7 2
1000
SPE 57439
S im u la tio n -B a s e d S h a le T y p e C u r v e s
S e l e c t y o u r r e s e r v o i r p r o p e r ti e s h e r e
A re a
Pi
Sw i
P h if
Kf
Fs
TOC
(a c r e s)
(p si a )
(% )
(fra c )
(m d )
(ft)
(% )
N et P ay:
120
fe e t
P r in t T h is P a g e
S e le c t Y o u r G ra p h in g O p tio n s H e re
E x p o rt S im u la te d D a ta
E x tr a T e x t o n G ra p h T itle :
E x a m p le N o . 1 (A n trim S h a le )
U P D ATE
Ite m T o G r a p h :
E C O N O M IC S
G a s P ro d u c ti o n R a te
W a te r P r o d u c ti o n R a te
E x a m p l e N o . 1 (A n tri m S h a l e )
E x a m p l e N o . 1 (A n tri m S h a l e )
1 ,0 0 0
1 ,0 0 0
A c tu a l
W a t e r Ra t e ( B BL /D
100
10
A c tu a l
100
S imu la te d
10
1
0 .0
2 .0
4 .0
6 .0
8 .0
1 0 .0
0 .0
2 .0
4 .0
6 .0
8 .0
1 0 .0
T im e ( Y e a r s )
T im e ( Y e a r s )
S im u la t io n - B a s e d S h a le T y p e C u r v e s
S e l e c t y o u r r e s e r v o i r p r o p e r ti e s h e r e
A re a
Pi
Sw i
P h if
Kf
Fs
TOC
( a c r e s)
( p si a )
(% )
( fr a c )
(m d )
( ft )
(% )
N et Pay:
105
fe e t
P r in t T h i s P a g e
S e le c t Y o u r G r a p h in g O p tio n s H e r e
E x p o r t S im u la t e d D a t a
E x tr a T e x t o n G r a p h T itle :
E x a m p le N o . 1 ( A n tr im S h a le )
U PD ATE
I te m T o G r a p h :
E C O N O M IC S
G a s P r o d u c ti o n R a te
Ex a m p le N o . 1
W a te r P r o d u c ti o n R a te
(A n tr i m S h a l e )
Ex a m p le N o . 1
1 ,0 0 0
(A n tr i m S h a l e )
1 ,0 0 0
A c tu a l
(BBL
100
W ate r Rate
(M s c f/
S im u la t e d
G a s Ra te
G a s R a t e ( M s c f /d
S imu la te d
10
A c tu a l
100
S im u la t e d
10
1
0 .0
2 .0
4 .0
6 .0
8 .0
1 0 .0
1
0 .0
2 .0
4 .0
6 .0
T im e ( Y e a r s )
T im e ( Y e a r s )
8 .0
1 0 .0
SPE 57439 A SIMULATION SPREADSHEET PROGRAM FOR HISTORY MATCHING AND FORECASTING SHALE GAS PRODUCTION
S im u la t io n - B a s e d S h a le T y p e C u r v e s
S e l e c t y o u r r e s e r v o i r p r o p e r ti e s h e r e
A re a
Pi
(a c r e s)
(p si a )
Sw i
P h if
(% )
(f r a c )
Kf
Fs
(m d )
N et P ay:
TOC
(f t)
(% )
105
fe e t
P r in t T h is P a g e
S e le c t Y o u r G r a p h in g O p tio n s H e re
E x p o rt S im u la te d D a ta
E x tr a T e x t o n G r a p h T itle :
E x a m p le N o . 1 (A n trim S h a le )
U PD ATE
Ite m T o G r a p h :
E C O N O M IC S
G a s C u m u l a ti v e P r o d u c ti o n
W a te r C u m u l a ti v e P r o d u c ti o n
E x a m p l e N o . 1 (A n tr i m S h a l e )
E x a m p l e N o . 1 ( A n tr i m S h a l e )
1 ,0 0 0 , 0 0 0
1 ,0 0 0 , 0 0 0
A c tua l
1 0 0 ,0 0 0
S im u la te d
(M s c
(BBL
G as C u m
1 ,0 0 0
W ate r C u m
1 0 0 ,0 0 0
1 0 ,0 0 0
100
A c tua l
1 0 ,0 0 0
S im u la te d
1 ,0 0 0
100
10
10
1
0 .0
2 .0
4 .0
6 .0
8 .0
1 0 .0
0 .0
2 .0
4 .0
6 .0
8 .0
1 0 .0
T im e ( Y e a r s )
T im e ( Y e a r s )
E n te r E c o n o m i c P a r a m e te r s
NRI
0 .8 7 5 0 0 0
W e ll C o s t
$ 2 0 0 ,0 0 0
G a s P ric e
2 .5 0 0
O p C o s t/m o
$500
E s c a la to r
1 .0 0 5
F irs t Y e a r
2000
G r o ss
YEA R
NPV 10=
Net
$ 2 3 7 ,0 5 6
D i sc o u n te d
Gas
Gas
Gas
O p e r a ti n g
M sc f
M sc f
P ric e
C o st
Ne t Re ve n ue
C u m u l a ti v e
C u m u l a ti v e
Ne t Re ve n ue
D i sc o u n te d
Ne t Re ve n ue
10%
Ne t Re ve n ue
2000
28706
25118
2.500
6000
-1 4 3 2 0 5
-1 4 3 2 0 5
-1 3 0 1 8 6
-3 3 0 1 8 6
2001
41486
36300
2.513
6,030
85174
-5 8 0 3 1
70392
-2 5 9 7 9 4
2002
54637
47808
2.525
6,060
114657
56626
86143
-1 7 3 6 5 1
2003
51211
44810
2.538
6,090
107623
164250
73508
-1 0 0 1 4 3
2004
46341
40549
2.550
6,121
97293
261543
60411
-3 9 7 3 1
2005
39771
34800
2.563
6,152
83044
344587
46876
7145
2006
34471
30162
2.576
6,182
71514
416101
36698
43843
2007
30613
26786
2.589
6,213
63131
479232
29451
73294
2008
27699
24237
2.602
6,244
56814
536046
24094
97389
10
2009
25452
22271
2.615
6,275
51957
588003
20032
117421
11
2010
23705
20742
2.628
6,307
48201
636204
16894
134315
12
2011
22280
19495
2.641
6,338
45147
681351
14385
148700
13
2012
21004
18379
2.654
6,370
42410
723761
12285
160985
14
2013
20051
17544
2.667
6,402
40397
764158
10638
171622
15
2014
19137
16744
2.681
6,434
38455
802612
9206
180828
16
2015
18326
16036
2.694
6,466
36737
839350
7995
188823
17
2016
17610
15409
2.708
6,498
35224
874574
6969
195792
18
2017
16965
14844
2.721
6,531
33863
908437
6091
201883
19
2018
16379
14331
2.735
6,564
32630
941067
5335
207218
20
2019
15845
13864
2.748
6,596
31510
972577
4684
211902
21
2020
15358
13438
2.762
6,629
30490
1003066
4120
216022
22
2021
14908
13045
2.776
6,663
29551
1032617
3630
219652
23
2022
14495
12683
2.790
6,696
28688
1061305
3204
222856
24
2023
14110
12347
2.804
6,729
27889
1089194
2831
225687
25
2024
13750
12031
2.818
6,763
27140
1116335
2505
228192
26
2025
13415
11738
2.832
6,797
26446
1142781
2219
230411
27
2026
13101
11464
2.846
6,831
25796
1168577
1968
232379
28
2027
12806
11205
2.860
6,865
25187
1193763
1747
234125
29
2028
12526
10960
2.875
6,899
24607
1218371
1551
235676
30
2029
12264
10731
2.889
6,934
24069
1242440
1379
237056
708423
619870
1242440
SPE 57439
S im u la tio n -B a s e d S h a le T y p e C u r v e s
S e l e c t y o u r r e s e r v o i r p r o p e r ti e s h e r e
A re a
Pi
Sw i
P h if
Kf
Fs
TOC
(a c r e s)
(p si a )
(% )
(fr a c )
(m d )
(ft)
(% )
N et Pay:
86
fe e t
P r in t T h is P a g e
S e le ct Y o u r G ra p h in g O p tio n s H e r e
E x p o r t S im u la te d D a ta
E x tr a T e x t o n G r a p h T itle :
E x a m p le N o . 2 (N e w A lb a n y S h a le )
UPDATE
Ite m T o G r a p h :
E C O N O M IC S
W a te r P r o d u c ti o n R a te
G a s P ro d u c ti o n R a te
E x a m p l e N o . 2 (N e w A l b a n y S h a l e )
E x a m p l e N o . 2 (N e w A l b a n y S h a l e )
0 .6
40
0 .5
( B B L /D
30
25
A c tu a l
20
W a te r Ra te
G a s Ra te
(M s c f/d
35
S imu la te d
15
10
0 .4
0 .3
A c tu a l
S imu la te d
0 .2
0 .1
5
0
0 .0
5 .0
1 0 .0
1 5 .0
2 0 .0
2 5 .0
3 0 .0
0 .0
0 .0
2 .0
4 .0
6 .0
8 .0
1 0 .0
1 2 .0
1 4 .0
T im e ( Y e a r s )
T im e ( Y e a r s )
G a s C u m u l a ti v e P r o d u c ti o n
Ex a m p le N o . 2
(N e w A l b a n y S h a l e )
1 8 0 ,0 0 0
1 6 0 ,0 0 0
(M s c
1 4 0 ,0 0 0
1 2 0 ,0 0 0
Gas C u m
1 0 0 ,0 0 0
A c tu a l
8 0 ,0 0 0
S im u la te d
6 0 ,0 0 0
4 0 ,0 0 0
2 0 ,0 0 0
0
0 .0
5 .0
1 0 .0
1 5 .0
2 0 .0
2 5 .0
T im e ( Y e a r s )
3 0 .0