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ince the January Budget, thestates economy has strengthened and revenues
have surged upward, driven by increased capital gains and other income from
highwageearners.
Despite these stronger revenues, thebudget remains precariously balanced and faces the
prospect of deficits in succeedingyears. Thestate hashundreds ofbillions of dollars in
existing liabilities, suchas deferred maintenance on its roads and other infrastructure and
its unfunded liability for future retiree health care benefits for state employees and various
pensionbenefits. Inthis budget, under Proposition2, spikes in capital gains will be used
to prepare for the inevitable next recession by saving money and paying down these
debts andliabilities.
Overall, theMayRevision reflects a $6.7billion increase in GeneralFund revenues
compared to the JanuaryBudget. TheConstitution, reflecting the voters priorities,
directs the use of these revenues asfollows:
Introduction
Proposition2 requires that an additional $633million be saved in the Rainy Day Fund
and an additional $633million be used to pay down debts andliabilities.
Too often in the past, state government has made ongoing commitments based upon
what turned out be temporary spikes in revenues amistake this budget attempts
toavoid. TheMayRevision commits new spending in only three additionalareas:
Creating the firstever California Earned Income Tax Credit to assist the states
lowestincomeworkers. Thecredit will provide $380million in benefits to
2millionCalifornians. Thiscredit combined with increased funding for education
and health care reform, together with an increased minimum wage will provide
increased state support for Californias poorestresidents.
Holding tuition flat at the states universities for California undergraduate students for
two more years by providing increased ongoing funding to California State University
and temporary assistance to the University of California to pay down its unfunded
pensionliability.
Providing health care and other safety net services to currently undocumented
immigrants who gain Permanent Residence Under Color of Law status under the
Presidents executiveactions.
Introduction
Figure INT-01
$20
$10
$0
-$10
-$20
-$30
-$40
-$50
Proposition2 was designed to help the state save when times are good, suchasnow.
Higher revenues from capital gains will both be saved and used to pay downdebts.
Bythe end of the year, thestates Rainy Day Fund will have a total balance of $3.5billion.
Asshown in FigureINT02, theMayRevision also pays down an additional $633million in
debts and liabilities (for a total of $1.9billion) fromProposition2funds.
Slowly but surely, thestate is climbing out from under the budgetary debts accumulated
over the past decade and ahalf. Inthe next three months alone, thestatewill:
Repay the remaining $1billion in deferrals to schools and community colleges (which
once peaked at $10billion).
Make the last payment on the $15billion in Economic Recovery Bonds that were
used to cover budget deficits from as far back as 2002.
Introduction
Figure INT-02
Outstanding
Amount at Start
of 2015-16
Budgetary Borrowing
Loans from Special Funds
Underfunding of Proposition 98Settle-Up
Teacher Pensions 2/
Judges' Pensions
Deferred payments to CalPERS
University of California Retirement Liabilities
University of California Employee Pensions
University of California Retiree Health
Total
Additional
May Revision
Pay Down
$3,028
1,512
$965
256
$537
0
71,773
43,303
0
0
0
0
72,718
3,358
530
0
0
0
0
0
0
Governor's
Budget
Pay Down
7,633
96
14,519
$218,374
$1,221
$633
1/ Entire liability paid off under the 2014 Budget Act revenue trigger.
2/ The state portion of the unfunded liability for teacher pensions is $14.916 billion.
Repay local governments the final mandate reimbursements for activities completed
in 2004 or earlier (totaling $765million).
The elimination of all of these budgetary debts and a healthier Rainy Day Fund balance
will give the state fiscal capacity when the next recessionbegins. Butthese steps alone
will not ensure an enduring balancedbudget. Already, thecommitments that the state
made in the past two years are straining the statesfinances. Under a projection of
current policies, thebudget would be upside down by more than $2billion by 201819.
While forecasts four years into the future are subject to great uncertainty, itis clear that
the state cannot take on new ongoing spending commitments beyond those proposed in
the MayRevision.
Introduction
Figure INT-03
Proposition 98 Funding
2007-08 to 2015-16
$70.0
$68.4
$66.3
Dollars in Billions
$65.0
$58.9
$60.0
$57.9
$56.6
$55.0
$51.7
$49.6
$49.2
$50.0
$47.3
$45.0
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
K14 schools was $56.6billion in 200708 and sank to $47.3billion in 201112. Fromthis
recent low, funding has been at alltime highs since 201213 and is expected to grow
to $68.4billion in 201516, anincrease of $2.7billion compared to the level expected
inJanuary. TheProposition98 maintenance factor anindicator of the past cuts made to
schools and community colleges totaled nearly $11billion as recently as 201112. Under
the MayRevision, thisamount is reduced to $772million.
K12 Education
For K12 schools, funding levels will increase by more than $3,000 per student in 201516
over 201112levels. Thisreinvestment provides the opportunity to correct historical
inequities in school district funding with continued implementation of the Local Control
FundingFormula. Rising state revenues means that the state can implement the
formula well ahead ofschedule. Whenthe formula was adopted in 201314, funding
was expected to be $47billion in 201516. TheMayRevision provides $6.1billion
morewiththe formula instead allocating $53.1billion this comingyear.
Introduction
Higher Education
The MayRevision also invests in the quality and affordability of the states higher
educationsystem. University tuition almost doubled during the recession, creating a
hardship for many students and theirfamilies. Tomaintain affordability, theMayRevision
holds tuition for California undergraduate students flat through 201617. TheMayRevision
commits $38million in ongoing funding for the California State University (CSU), fora
total of $158million in newfunding. Aspart of an agreement with the University of
California (UC), thestate will provide temporary funding from Proposition2 to assist in
paying down UCs unfunded pension liability as UCimposes a pension cap consistent
with the states 2012 reformlaw.
By focusing on reducing the time it takes a student to successfully complete a degree,
rather than just admitting more students, theuniversities can ensure their systems are
financially viable over the longterm. Thecommunity colleges and the university systems
must work together to develop innovative approaches so students can successfully
complete theirdegrees. TheMayRevision provides new funding for CSU and community
colleges to coordinate their provision of basic skills and remedialeducation.
A clear pathway for students to transfer from community colleges to the states
universities is one of the most important features of Californias higher educationsystem.
Formany years, therequirements for transfer to the states universities were a confusing
overlay of individual campus and departmentrules. Overthe past few years, CSUand
the community colleges have greatly simplified and improved the transfer process in
implementing statewide associate degrees for transfer under Chapter428, Statutes of
2010 (SB1440). Overthe next two academic years, UCwill identify specific pathways
for transfer for its 20 most popularmajors. These pathways will be closely aligned to the
SB1440 transferdegrees. Thiswill ease the transfer process for students and contribute
to UCadmitting at least one transfer for every two freshmen by 201718.
Introduction
since the Governors Budget, muchof the gains continue to be made by the states
wealthiestresidents.
California has an extensive safety net for its neediest residents who live in poverty,
andthe state has maintained those core benefits despite therecession. Inthe past two
years, therecovering economy has allowed the state to take even greater steps to assist
the states neediestresidents. These efforts are assistingmillions ofCalifornians.
The implementation of health care reform has extended coverage under MediCal to
an additional fourmillion Californians in just three years and added new services such
as treatment for substance abuse and mentalhealth. Theexpansion has already
increased GeneralFund costs by approximately more than $1billion annually and that
amount will rise to more than $2billion by 201718 as the federal government begins
to reduce its share of costs beginning in 2017. Under the MayRevision, coverage will
also be provided to immigrants who gain Permanent Residence Under Color of Law
status under the Presidents executiveactions. ForMediCal and other programs,
thiswill add GeneralFund costs of an estimated $200million when the federal
changes are fully implemented ($62million in 201516).
The state increased the minimum wage by 25percent, to$10 per hour,
andguaranteed that 6.5million workers are eligible for sickleave. GeneralFund
costs to implement these measures will be nearly $250million by 201617.
Establish the states first Earned Income Tax Credit to help the poorest working
families inCalifornia. Thistargeted credit will provide a refundable tax credit for
wages and would focus on the lowestincome Californians households with
incomes less than $6,580 if there are no dependents or $13,870 if there are three
or moredependents. Theproposed credit would match 85percent of the federal
credit at the lowest income levels, providing an average estimated household benefit
of $460 annually for 825,000 families (representing 2millionindividuals), witha
maximum benefit of $2,653.
Introduction
Establish an amnesty program for those Californians with past due courtordered
debt from trafficinfractions. Participating individuals can reduce their debts by
50percent, reduce the administrative fees they pay from $300 to $50, andhave their
drivers licensesreinstated.
Summary Charts
Summary Charts
Summary Charts
Figure SUM-01
2015-16
$5,589
$2,359
$111,307
$115,033
$116,896
$117,392
Non-Proposition 98 Expenditures
$64,929
$65,892
Proposition 98 Expenditures
$49,608
$49,416
$114,537
$115,308
$2,359
$2,084
Total Expenditures
Fund Balance
Reserve for Liquidation of Encumbrances
$971
$971
$1,388
$1,113
$1,606
$3,460
10
Summary Charts
Figure SUM-02
Special
Funds
$3,394
Bond
Funds
$223
Totals
$6,797
623
807
140
1,570
Transportation
261
8,855
2,091
11,207
2,490
1,513
1,100
5,103
Natural Resources
Environmental Protection
65
3,116
1,762
4,943
31,811
20,788
52,599
10,087
2,581
12,668
K-12 Education
49,285
103
1,063
50,451
Higher Education
14,195
103
390
14,688
215
739
681
281
896
1,027
677
469
1,211
1,861
2,284
574
2
-
2,540
2,753
1,785
$115,308
$46,941
$6,778
$169,027
Figure SUM-03
2015-16
Dollar
Percent
Change
Change
$3,017
843
200
2,558
87
30,046
10,030
49,659
13,267
282
754
$3,180
623
261
2,490
65
31,811
10,087
49,285
14,195
215
739
$163
-220
61
-68
-22
1,765
57
-374
928
-67
-15
5.4%
-26.1%
30.5%
-2.7%
-25.3%
5.9%
0.6%
-0.8%
7.0%
-23.8%
-2.0%
1,500
446
242
677
469
1,211
-823
23
969
-54.9%
5.2%
400.4%
1,606
$114,537
$115,308
-1,606
$771
-100.0%
0.7%
11
Summary Charts
Figure SUM-04
2014-15
Personal Income Tax
Change from
2014-15
Dollar
Percent
Change
Change
2015-16
$75,384
$77,700
$2,316
3.1%
23,684
25,240
1,556
6.6%
Corporation Tax
9,809
10,342
533
5.4%
Insurance Tax
2,486
2,556
70
2.8%
353
360
2.0%
Cigarette Tax
84
82
-2
-2.4%
23
23
0.0%
1,090
584
-506
-46.4%
$112,913
$116,887
$3,974
3.5%
-1,606
-1,854
-248
15.4%
$111,307
$115,033
$3,726
3.3%
Other
Subtotal
Transfer to the Budget Stabilization
Account/Rainy Day Fund
Total
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Figure SUM-05
General
Fund
$77,700
25,240
10,342
2,556
360
82
23
584
$116,887
Special
Funds
$1,806
12,757
4,893
688
6,521
18,963
$45,628
Total
$79,506
37,997
10,342
4,893
2,556
360
770
6,544
19,547
$162,515
Change
From
2014-15
$2,355
1,413
533
-828
70
7
-22
177
-2,264
$1,441
-1,854
1,854
$115,033
$47,482
$162,515
$1,441
12
K thru 12 Education
K thru 12Education
Proposition98
A voterapproved constitutional amendment, Proposition98, guarantees minimum
funding levels for K12 schools and communitycolleges. Theguarantee, which went into
effect in the 198889 fiscal year, determines funding levels according to multiple factors
including the level of funding in 198687, GeneralFund revenues, percapita personal
income, andschool attendance growth ordecline. Therecently adopted Local Control
Funding Formula is the primary mechanism for distributing funding to support all students
attending K12 public schools inCalifornia.
As a result of significant growth in GeneralFund revenues, Proposition98 funding
obligations increase by a total of $6.1billion over the threeyear period of 201314 to
13
K thru 12 Education
14
K thru 12 Education
Special Education
The California Statewide Special Education Taskforce was formed in 2013 to examine
the state of special education in California, analyze and consider best practices within
the state and nation, andultimately propose recommendations for improving thesystem.
Thetaskforce, composed of parents, advocates, teachers, administrators, andexperts
in the field, began meeting in December2013. After more than a year of deliberations,
thetaskforce released its final recommendations in March2015, which focus on the
areas of early learning, evidencebased school and classroom practices, educator
preparation and professional learning, assessments and accountability structures, family
and student engagement, andspecial educationfinancing.
In response to these recommendations, theMayRevision proposes $60.1million
Proposition98 GeneralFund ($50.1million ongoing and $10million onetime) in 201516
to implement selected program changes recommended by the taskforce, andmakes
targeted investments that improve service delivery and outcomes for all disabled
students, witha particular emphasis on earlyeducation.
SignificantAdjustments:
15
K thru 12 Education
16
Improve Outcomes for Children with Exceptional Needs who Participate in State
Preschool TheMayRevision requires State Preschool programsto: (1) provide
parents with information about accessing local resources for the screening and
treatment of developmental disabilities, and(2) within existing professional
development requirements, provide teachers with training on behavioral strategies
and targeted interventions to improve kindergartenreadiness. TheMayRevision
proposes increasing State Preschool reimbursement rates by 1percent (at a cost of
$6million Proposition98 GeneralFund) toreflect thesechanges.
K thru 12 Education
Adult Education
The MayRevision maintains $500million Proposition98 GeneralFund to establish
the Adult Education Block Grant program to provide funds for adult education to
school districts and communitycolleges. Thisproposed program will coordinate
efforts of various entities suchas schools, community colleges, universities, local
workforce investment boards, libraries, social services agencies, public safety agencies,
andemployers toprovide education and training moreeffectively.
The MayRevision strengthens this proposal, substantially informed by feedback received
fromstakeholders.
SignificantAdjustments:
17
K thru 12 Education
18
K thru 12 Education
19
K thru 12 Education
20
Child Care and Development Funds Anet increase of $17.7million federal funds
in 201516 to reflect an increase in ongoing base federal funds of $9million,
anadditional $5.5million in onetime generalpurpose funds from 201415,
andan additional $3.2million in onetime quality funds from 201415. Inaddition,
theMayRevision identifies basic priorities for possible midyear federal Child Care
and Development Block Grant funding adjustments, andestablishes the Infant and
Toddler Quality Rating and Improvement System Block Grant with anticipated federal
quality funds available beginning October1,2016.
K thru 12 Education
21
K thru 12 Education
22
Higher Education
Higher Education
The Master Plan for Higher Education created a model for public education throughout
theworld. Thesegments must serve as leaders to keep the costs of higher education
affordable for students andfamilies. TheAdministration expects segments to continue to
improve efficiencies and innovations, andensure investments are studentcentered to the
benefit of current students and increased access for current and futureCalifornians.
The MayRevision includes total funding of $29.1billion ($16.6billion GeneralFund and
local property tax and $12.6billion otherfunds) forall programs included in theseentities.
23
Higher Education
The significant resources $619million above the Governors Budget and $1billion
over the 2014 BudgetAct level included in the MayRevision for the CCC will enhance
student success, including providing more support to students, increasing fulltime
faculty, andidentifying, developing, andexpanding the use of effectivepractices.
SignificantAdjustments:
24
Higher Education
25
Higher Education
onetime needs, suchas curricula redesign, startup costs for new career technical
educational programs, andother onetimecosts.
26
Higher Education
Fund existing obligations, suchas increased costs for pensions and healthbenefits.
In its annual performance report to the Governor and the Legislature, theCSU indicated
that about 19percent of students who enter as freshmen graduate within fouryears.
Thefouryear rate for lowincome students (12percent) isabout half that of their peers
(24percent), andthat gap persists after six years, when 48percent of lowincome
students will have graduated, compared to 59percent for theirpeers. About half of
CSU students transferred from the community colleges animportant role the CSU
has embraced within Californias higher educationsystem. Nearly 30percent of transfer
students graduate within two years, andlowincome transfer students graduate at close
to the same rates as theirpeers.
Shortening the time it takes undergraduates to graduate and increasing the number who
complete their degrees is critical for students and their families, andimproves access
for futurestudents. TheCSU chancellor has committed to addressing thesechallenges.
TheCSUs Graduation Initiative sets goals to be achieved by the year 2025, including
a fouryear graduation rate for freshman entrants of 24percent and a twoyear rate for
transfer students of 35percent. TheCSU will report publicly on its progress toward these
goals as it aims to meet or exceed these targets andtimelines.
27
Higher Education
SignificantAdjustments:
University of California
Consisting of 10 campuses, theUniversity of California (UC) isthe primary institution
authorized to independently award doctoral degrees and professionaldegrees. The
UCeducates approximately 249,000 undergraduate and graduate students and
receives the highest state subsidy per student among the states three public higher
educationsegments.
Following the UCRegents November action to authorize the UCPresident to increase
student tuition by up to 28percent over five years, theAdministration and the President
undertook a review of UCas part of a select advisory committee established by the
Regents to develop and evaluate proposals to reduce the Universitys cost structure,
while maintaining or improving access, quality, accountability andoutcomes.
28
Higher Education
After months of data review, discussions between the Administration and the Office
of the President, andinterviews with higher education experts, faculty and staff
at UCcampuses, andundergraduate and graduate students, theGovernor and the
UCPresident have agreed that UCwill undertake a number of reforms to manage
its operations more effectively and that the President will strongly recommend the
Academic Senate undertake additionalreforms. Implementation of these reforms will
allow UCto better serve existing students and reduce its future operating costs so that
students will have access to an affordable UCeducation in the years tocome. Under this
framework, tuition for California undergraduate students will remain flat through 201617.
As UCimplements a cap on salary eligible for pensions consistent with the states 2012
pension reform law, thestate will use the dedicated debt funding under Proposition2 to
help reduce the Universitys unfunded pensionliability. Theagreedupon framework is
described in more detailbelow.
29
Higher Education
$25million in onetime Cap and Trade revenues, which would be used for energy
efficiency projects at UCcampuses to reduce greenhouse gasemissions.
30
Higher Education
process, combined with a commitment from UCto reach the twotoone transfer
threshold by 201718 (for all undergraduate campuses except for UCMerced), willopen
up transfer opportunities tothousands more students in the comingyears.
31
Higher Education
Three campuses will pilot alternative pricing models for summer session by 2016.
Currently, thesummer term does not take full advantage of existing infrastructure and
instructionalcapacity. These pilots will identify options to encourage undergraduate
students to take more courses during the summer with the intent to further expand the
use of summer courses in futureyears.
In addition to supporting timely fouryear degrees, eachcampus will develop threeyear
degree pathways for 10 out of its top 15 majors by March1, 2016, which will provide
students with another option to earn a UCdegree. The UChas committed to promoting
and encouraging these accelerated pathways with a goal that 5percent of students will
access these accelerated tracks by the summer of 2017. While accelerated graduation
is not practical for all, improved timetodegree results in significant savings for students
and families, andstudents should have clear, specific options that allow them to graduate
in a timely way that best suits theirneeds. Increasing the number of students who
complete their degrees in less than four years would also open up admission tohundreds
of newundergraduates.
These policy changes can have significant impacts if students receive appropriate
guidance as they move through theirprograms. Therefore, theOffice of the President will
work with campus advisors on how they can help keep students on track for graduation
within four years orless.
32
Higher Education
By pursuing several technologies at each campus, UCcan serve as a laboratory for new
practices in teaching andlearning. Aspart of the agreement with the Administration,
UCRiverside will pilot ABC tools for its College of Humanities, Artsand Social Sciences,
which houses 20departments. Twoadditional campuses will also participate on a smaller
scale, withthree similar departments reflecting the most popular disciplines piloting
ABC in 2016 following a scopingstudy. Campuses will also report on how they are using
other data and technology tools, suchas predictive analytics, toidentify students at risk
of repeating courses, notcompleting on time, orneeding advising or otherinterventions.
These data can be used to close achievement gaps amongstudents. Finally, UCDavis
will lead a multicampus pilot (with at least two othercampuses) ondeploying adaptive
learning technologies, focused on improving instruction and increasing the number of
students who succeed in difficult courses and persist tocompletion.
In addition to understanding costs and outcomes, technology offers new opportunities
for increasing access toUC. Today, students can connect with professors across
campuses, andprofessors can lecture online and spend more time with students
in discussiongroups. During the Administrations review, manyfaculty members
cited hybrid courses as a way to deliver an enhanced learning environment to more
students than in a typical lecturecourse. Supporting the development of hybrid
coursesespecially for bottleneck courses, courses with high failure rates, orcourses
that are needed for popular majors should be a priority of the University, asdoing
so can help enhance student outcomes, lower costs and increaseaccess. Using a
GeneralFund augmentation provided in recent years, UCestablished the Innovative
Learning Technology Initiative, andwith that continued funding, UCwill expand its impact
on students by prioritizing resources on the development of thesecourses.
The UChas also committed to expanding online programs in strategic areas where high
demand exists to help Californians meet the workforce needs ofemployers. Tothat
end, UCwill convene industry leaders and other stakeholders this summer to identify
online certificate and masters degree programs that would provide significant benefit to
the Californiaworkforce. The UCwill also seek to expand enrollment in existing online
programs that have proven to besuccessful.
33
Higher Education
34
Higher Education
Offset CalGrant Costs with Federal Temporary Assistance for Needy Families
(TANF) Reimbursements Anincrease of $247.3million TANF reimbursements
in 201516, which reduces the amount of GeneralFund resources needed for
programcosts. Combined with the TANF reimbursements included in the Governors
35
Higher Education
36
Higher Education
SignificantAdjustments:
37
he Health and Human Services Agency oversees departments and other state
entities such as boards, commissions, councils, andoffices that provide health and
social services to Californias vulnerable and atriskresidents.
39
forImmigrants. Under federal rules, thestatus does not allow individuals to qualify for
Covered California, CalFresh, CalWORKs, orthe California Food AssistanceProgram.
On February16, 2015, afederal district court enjoined implementation of theseactions.
TheObama Administration has appealed and if the Administration prevails, theannual
costs to provide the state benefits would be approximately $200million GeneralFund,
andgrowthereafter. TheMayRevision includes partialyear 201516 costs of $62million
GeneralFund, which presumes the courts allow the federal government to proceed
with implementing the executiveactions. Inconjunction with the Presidents executive
actions, theMayRevision proposes an additional $5million for direct assistance for
immigrant applicants and temporaryworkers.
SignificantAdjustments:
HighCost Drugs
The MayRevision allocates $228million of the $300million that was set aside for
highcost drugs in the Governors Budget to the Department of Health Care Services,
theDepartment of State Hospitals, andthe Department of Corrections andRehabilitation.
Thisamount includes funding for implementing expanded clinical guidelines that are
largely consistent with national clinical recommendations for the treatment of HepatitisC.
Additionally, theCalifornia Health and Human Services Agency has held several meetings
with counties, sheriffs, stakeholders, andstate departments to discuss the clinical,
procurement, andcostbenefit considerations around the new Hepatitis C treatments and
future highcostdrugs.
40
Going forward, theAgency will convene two workgroups with state departments and
local entities to discuss clinical and procurement issues with the goal of developing a
proposal for inclusion in the 201617 GovernorsBudget. Theclinical workgroup will
discuss highcost drugs that are pending federal approval and how they could affect
existing clinicalguidelines. Theprocurement workgroup will examine aspects of relevant
entities pharmacy benefit manager contracts, theavailability of pricing information,
andthe activities and functions of state entities procuring drugs or negotiating prices and
supplementalrebates.
41
42
and the eligibility system stabilizes, thestate and counties will reevaluate the MediCal
county administration budget pursuant to Chapter442, Statutes of 2013 (SB28).
43
44
SignificantAdjustment:
45
Public Safety
Public Safety
47
Public Safety
working faster than previously estimated, theaverage daily adult inmate population is now
projected to decrease by 1.1percent to 133,451 in 201415 and decrease by 3.8percent
to 127,990 in 201516 compared to the Governors Budget projections, asdisplayed in
FigureSAF01.
Figure SAF-01
2015-16
133,558
129,581
-107
-1,591
133,451
127,990
For the May Revision, the Population Reduction Measures include the new parole determination process for non-violent, nonsex registrant second-strike offenders and two-for-one credit earning for minimum custody inmates currently eligible for day-forday credits. The impacts of all other court-ordered population reduction measures, and the effects of Proposition 47, are now
incorporated in the Adult Average Daily Population Projection.
On February10, 2014, thethreejudge court granted the states request for a twoyear
extension of the deadline to meet the 137.5percent population cap and ordered the
state to comply with interim benchmarks of 143percent by June30, 2014(subsequently
extended to August31,2014),141.5percent by February28, 2015, andthe final
population cap by February28,2016. Theprison population is currently below the final
February2016 benchmark by 2,220inmates. However, 201516 presents extraordinary
challenges and uncertainties for the state prisonsystem.
The Governors Budget assumed no reduction to the use of 9,000 outofstate contract
beds, andthe fall projections assumed an average daily population reduction of 1,900
inmates in 201516 related to the Safe Neighborhoods and Schools Act (Proposition47).
Additionally, theGovernors Budget assumed the activation of three prison infill projects
by February2016, which would increase the institution capacity by 3,267. However,
there continues to be risk associated with this assumption as the timeline assumes an
aggressive construction schedule, andthe state is required to meet and confer with
plaintiffs regarding how the infill beds will be counted towardcapacity.
Compared with the Governors Budget, spring population projections show an average
daily population reduction of approximately 5,100 inmates in 201516. Thissignificant
decline is driven primarily by revised Proposition47 estimates showing that the measure
is impacting the prison population sooner than expected in the GovernorsBudget. Given
48
Public Safety
the magnitude of the projected population decline, andthe need to maintain sufficient
capacity compared with the final population cap of 137.5percent, theAdministration has
developed a revised contract bed plan for the MayRevision that focuses on reducing the
use of outofstate contractbeds.
The MayRevision includes savings of $73.3million GeneralFund in 201516 tied to the
reduction of approximately 4,000 outofstate contract beds by June2016. Thereduction
assumes vacating two outofstate facilities and reducing use of other outofstate
facilities to achieve a 2,700bed reduction by December2015 and a further 1,300bed
reduction by June2016.
Further reductions to the use of outofstate beds beyond 4,000 in 201516 could
jeopardize ongoing compliance with the 137.5percent population cap, asthe total inmate
population is projected to increase in 201617 andongoing. Based on this planned
reduction and current population trends, byearly 201718, CDCRs inmate population
could be above the targeted capacity and impact compliance with the courtordered
populationcap. Moreover, since multiple population reduction measures are in early
implementation stages, there is significant uncertainty with the overall populationtrends.
Forexample, thepopulation projections assume an average daily population reduction
of approximately 1,300 inmates in 201516 resulting from the new parole determination
process for nonviolent secondstrikers, anda reduction of another 4,600 inmates due to
the impacts of Proposition47.
Recognizing the extraordinary uncertainties within the current population trends,
theAdministration will develop for the 201617 Governors Budget a longterm plan
which, among other issues, takes intoaccount:
any use of contract beds on an ongoing basis, including instate contract beds,
outofstate contract beds, andthe leasing of the California City correctional facility;
the need for durable population reductions to stay below 137.5percent of design
capacity, suchas the current, courtordered population reduction measures; and
49
Public Safety
SignificantAdjustments:
50
Public Safety
Amnesty Program
The Governors Budget included an 18month amnesty program that authorizes
individuals with past due courtordered debt owed prior to January1, 2013, relating to
traffic infractions, topay outstanding delinquent debt at a 50percent reduction if the
individual meets specified eligibilitycriteria. Overall, theamnesty program is estimated
51
Public Safety
to generate $150million, which will help avoid structural deficits within many of the eight
special funds supported by the State PenaltyFund. Approximately $12million of the
$150million is expected to be deposited in the State PenaltyFund.
The MayRevision updates the Administrations proposed amnesty program by allowing
individuals whose driver licenses have been suspended due to Failure To Appear
or Failure To Pay related to traffic offenses to reinstate their licenses as part of the
programsothey can legally get to work and make their agreed upon payments to
theCourt. These individuals would agree to either make one payment or sign up for
a payment plan, supported by a wage garnishment agreement in the event that the
individual fails to make apayment. Inaddition, the$300 courtimposed assessment fee
pursuant to the Penal Code will be waived for the purposes of the amnesty program
and replaced by a $50 amnesty administrative fee for the courts to recover their costs of
running theprogram.
52
Public Safety
53
Emergency DroughtResponse
55
$50million Cap and Trade funds for the DWR to support state and local water use
efficiency projects that save energy and reduce greenhouse gasemissions.
$35million GeneralFund and special funds for the Water Board to provide grants for
emergency drinking waterprojects.
$20million Cap and Trade funds for the California Department of Food and
Agriculture to invest in irrigation and water pumping systems that reduce water use,
energy use, andgreenhouse gasemissions.
56
Simplifies the review and approval process for voluntary water transfers and
emergency drinking waterprojects.
Requires agricultural water users to report more water use information, increasing
the state's ability to enforce against illegal diversions, waste and unreasonable use
ofwater.
Requires landscapes for new homes and developments to be highly water efficient,
andbans watering of ornamental grass on public streetmedians.
The Executive Order is the fifth order that the Governor has issued since January2014 to
direct emergency droughtresponse.
57
This barrier must be removed in November to avoid the flood season and prevent harm to
migratoryfish. TheMayRevision includes $22million GeneralFund for the removal of the
temporarybarriers.
$1.7billion, available over the next three years, forthe following Water
Boardprograms:
58
Figure DRT-01
Investment
Category
May
Revision
Fund Source
Groundwater Contamination
$784.0
Proposition 1
Water Recycling
$475.0
Proposition 1
$180.0
Proposition 1
$160.0
Proposition 1
$100.0
Proposition 1
$60.0
Proposition 1
$50.0
Proposition 1
Department of Water
Urban Water Conservation
Resources*/Energy Commission
$104.0
Proposition 1/
Cap and Trade
Department of Water
Agricultural Water
Resources*/Department of Food
Conservation
and Agriculture
$75.0
Proposition 1/
Cap and Trade
Department of Water
Resources/Energy Commission
$43.0
Proposition 1/
Cap and Trade
$23.4
General Fund/
Special Funds
$61.8
General Fund
$22.2
General Fund
Removal of Emergency
Salinity Barriers in the Delta
$22.0
General Fund
Department of Community
Services and Development
Farmworker Assistance
$7.5
General Fund
$6.0
General Fund
Water Board
Executive Order
Implementation
$1.4
General Fund
Department
Program
Water Board
Water Board
Water Board
Protecting and
Expanding
Water Board
Local Water
Water Board
Supplies
Water
Conservation
Emergency
Response
Wastewater Treatment
Projects
Stormwater Management
Total
$2,175
* Amounts include funding proposed in Governor's Budget and additional funding in May Revision.
** Proposed in the Governor's Budget
59
Water Conservation
The MayRevision includes $245million to fund programs and projects that save
water,including:
60
$43million ($30million Cap and Trade funds for the Energy Commission and
$13million Proposition1 funds forDWR) toimplement consumer rebate
programs for the replacement of inefficient water consuming appliances,
including dishwashers and toilets, tosave water and energy and reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, consistent with the April1 ExecutiveOrder.
$27million Proposition1 funds to replace lawns in underserved communities
throughout the state with water efficient landscaping, consistent with the April1
ExecutiveOrder.
$20million Cap and Trade funds for the DWR Water Energy Grant Program to
reduce energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions through local projects
that also support water use efficiency andconservation.
$43million for activities that will integrate water conservation into residents
lifestyles, consistent with the Water Action Plan,including:
$30million Cap and Trade funds to begin implementation of the Water Energy
Technology Program, consistent with April1 Executive Order, toprovide funding
for innovative technologies that (1) display significant water and energy savings,
which also reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (2) demonstrate actual operation
beyond the research and development stage, and(3) document readiness for
rapid, large scale deployment inCalifornia.
$13million Proposition1 funds for the DWR to provide technical assistance,
datacollection, andapplied research that supports longterm water use
efficiency in urban and agriculturalsectors.
61
Emergency Response
The MayRevision includes $37.1million GeneralFund to assist droughtimpacted
communities and enforce water use restrictions,including:
62
63
The MayRevision supports the Governors 2030 GHG reduction target by including
a $2.2billion Cap and Trade Expenditure Plan that will further reduce emissions
by providing additional resources for clean transportation and mass transit, energy
efficiency and renewable energy, waste reduction, andecosystem restorationprograms.
(seeFigureCAP01). Eachadministering agency will utilize a public process to
engage stakeholders in the development and implementation of theprograms.
Theincreased resources in the plan reflect a revised auction proceed estimate, aswell
as the establishment of a prudent reserve to account for potential volatility in future
auctionproceeds.
Specifically, theincreased proceeds result in a total of $1.6billion for clean transportation,
masstransit and sustainable communitydevelopment. These resources will provide a
significant investment towards meeting the 2030goals. Seethe Transportation chapter
for moredetail.
64
Figure CAP-01
Investment
Category
Department
Program
Department of Community
Services and Development
Total
$250
$250
$500
$50
$50
$100
$100
$165
$265
$200
$200
$400
$200
$150
$350
Energy Efficiency
Upgrades/Weatherization
$75
$65
$140
Department of General
Services *
$20
$20
$40
University of California/
California State University
$0
$60
$60
Department of Water
Resources/Department of
Food and Agriculture
($30)
$60
$60
Energy Commission/
Department of Water
Resources
$0
$30
$30
Energy Commission/
Department of Water
Resources
$0
$30
$30
$5
$20
$25
$25
$40
$65
Forest Health
$42
$50
$92
Healthy Soils
$0
$20
$20
$35
$60
Energy
Efficiency and
Clean Energy
Jan 10/
Accelerated
May
Drought
Revision
Waste Diversion
$25
$992
$1,245 $2,237
* Shifts administration of Green Buildings and $20 million from the current year from Energy Commission to Department of
General Services.
65
The Expenditure Plan is consistent with the 2013 Cap and Trade Auction Proceeds
Investment Plan and Chapter830, Statutes of 2012 (SB535). Through investment
in the programs identified in the Expenditure Plan, thestate will meet the SB535
disadvantaged communitytargets. TheMayRevision also includes additional resources
to expand the assistance available to disadvantaged communities to increase program
awareness, access to funding, andparticipation.
In addition to reducing GHGs, theprograms and projects funded by the Cap and Trade
Expenditure Plan also support the following several other priority statewideinitiatives.
66
$40million for the California Department of Food and Agricultures existing State
Water Efficiency and Enhancement Program to provide incentives to agricultural
operations to invest in energyefficient irrigation technologies that reduce wateruse.
$30million for the Energy Commission to begin implementation of the Water Energy
Technology Program to provide funding for innovative technologies that (1) display
significant energy and water savings, (2) demonstrate actual operation beyond the
research and development stage, and(3) document readiness for rapid, largescale
deployment inCalifornia.
$20million for the Department of Water Resources existing Water Energy Grant
Program to reduce energy demand and GHGs through local projects that also
support water use efficiency andconservation.
$8million for the Department of General Services for projects that will reduce energy
use through water conservation at state prisons located in the CentralValley.
67
Transportation
Transportation
69
Transportation
Figure TRN-01
$20
Highway Repairs
$18
Trade
Corridors
& Capacity
$16
$14
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
Local
Projects
Highway Repairs
Trade Corridors
& Capacity
Local
Projects*
Highway Repairs
Local
Projects
Air Quality/
Other
Proposition 1B (2006)
Proposition 1A (2008)
Federal Stimulus/One-Time
*Does not include $3.8 billion in local sales tax measure revenues.
70
Transportation
Transit Operations $100million for transit operations in the Low Carbon Transit
OperationsProgram.
Transit Capital $265million for rail and transit in the Transit and Intercity Rail
CapitalProgram.
71
Environmental Protection
Environmental Protection
73
Environmental Protection
protect and balance competing uses of water, including municipal and agricultural
supply, hydropower, fishery protection, andrecreationaluses.
74
Natural Resources
Natural Resources
75
Natural Resources
76
Local Government
Local Government
Redevelopment Agencies
Since the dissolution of Redevelopment Agencies (RDAs) in 201112, $4.2billion
in general purpose property tax revenue has been returned to cities, counties,
andspecialdistricts. These funds are available to these local governments for core
publicservices. Since 201112, K14 schools have received over $4.3billion in additional
property taxrevenue. Thishas generated a roughly commensurate amount of
Proposition98 GeneralFund savings for thestate. Through 201819, annual GeneralFund
savings of over $1billion are anticipated, andthese amounts will grow steadily over the
next three decades as the former RDAs debts are steadily repaid and property taxes in
RDA project areasgrow.
As part of the Governors Budget, theAdministration introduced trailer bill language to
simplify the current RDA dissolution process by (1) providing a pathway for permanent
dissolution with limited state oversight, (2) clarifying and refining various provisions of
the dissolution statutes where there has been perceived ambiguity (thereby making them
operate more successfully for all parties without rewarding prior questionablebehavior),
and(3) minimizing the erosion of property tax residuals being returned to affected local
taxingentities.
77
Local Government
Over the past several months, theDepartment of Finance has met with many local
government entities to discuss the proposedlegislation. Discussions focused on how the
legislation could be amended to meet the needs of the cities and counties that formerly
operated RDAs (the sponsoringentities), while maintaining the continued orderly and
expeditious winddown of the former RDAs and minimizing the fiscal impact on the state
and other affected taxingentities.
Taking into consideration input from stakeholders, theMayRevision includes the
following substantive amendments to the proposed RDA dissolutionlegislation:
78
Local Government
(AB1484) areunauthorized and unenforceable, unless they were for the purpose of
providing administrative supportactivities.
79
Local Government
Prior Years Insufficient ERAF Since 201112, thestate has provided backfills
to cities and counties when there is insufficient revenue in the County ERAF
to reimburse the cities and counties for their VLF Swap and TripleFlipcosts.
Backfills are generally provided two years inarrears. TheMayRevision provides
$5.8million in backfills, which includes $700,000 for shortfalls incurred in 200910
and 201112.
80
Local Government
SignificantAdjustment:
81
his Chapter describes items in the Budget that are statewide issues or related to
variousdepartments.
83
Figure SWE-01
$25
Dollars in Billions
$20
$15
$10
Long-Term
Savings
$5
$0
contributions and investment income similar to how pensions have been funded for
decades thestates annual payment for retiree health care benefits is reduced by more
than $8billion.
Second, theGovernors Budget proposed controlling costs by reducing the employer
subsidy for retiree health care for future state employees and requiring them to work
longer to qualify for retiree health carebenefits. FigureSWE01 illustrates that these
benefit changes, whencombined with the prefunding strategy, willgenerate almost
$240billion in cumulative savings over the next 50years.
Third, theAdministration has requested additional reporting requirements and
informationsharing about state employee and retiree health plans to increase oversight
of the states health care administrator theCalifornia Public Employees Retirement
System (CalPERS) andmore health plan choices for employees through adding
lowercost plans to the benefitmenu. TheAdministrations trailer bill proposal requires
state departments and CalPERS to regularly review the eligibility of dependents enrolling
in the states health care program and ensure that retirees enroll in federally subsidized
Medicare plans when they turn 65. Additionally, thetrailer bill establishes a statutory
84
standard to share prefunding costs with state employees and creates a mechanism to
hold investment income gained from prefunding contributions in a trust fund until the
retiree health care plan is fullyfunded.
Health care benefits remain an important part of the recruitment and retention strategy
for the stateworkforce. TheAdministration recognizes that employees place a high
value on these benefits as part of their total compensation package, andis discussing
these issues through the collective bargainingprocess. Asecond trailer bill concerning
retiree health benefit changes has been introduced as a placeholder pending collective
bargainingnegotiations.
Employee Compensation
The MayRevision reflects a $57million ($43million GeneralFund) increase in employee
compensation and retiree health care costs relative to the GovernorsBudget. These
additional costs are driven primarily by increases in health care premiums andenrollment.
The Administration has begun collective bargaining negotiations with four of the states
bargaining units representing correctional peace officers, engineers, scientists, andcraft
and maintenanceworkers. Eachof these units contracts with the state will expire in early
July2015.
Retirement Contributions
The MayRevision reflects the following adjustments for retirementcosts:
The expected rise in state contributions to CalPERS for pension costs has decreased
by $110million ($56million GeneralFund) relative to the GovernorsBudget.
Ofthis incremental decrease, $19million (GeneralFund) isestimated for California
StateUniversity. Thereduction reflects the impact of employees entering the
system under the reduced benefit formula, pursuant to the Public Employees
Pension Reform Act of 2013, strong investment performance, andgreater than
expected contributions to thesystem. Overall, state contributions will increase by
$338million ($204 GeneralFund) over 201415levels.
85
CSU
CalPERS
CalPERS2
2006-07
CalSTRS
2,765
JRS
959
4
JRS II
LRS
Active
Health &
Retiree
Health &
Dental
Dental3
129
27
1,792
1,006
162
37
1,948
1,114
CSU
Retiree
Health
2007-08
2,999
1,623.
2008-09
3,063
1,133
189
40
2,127
1,183
2009-10
2,861
1,191
184
32
2,101
1,182
2010-11
3,230
1,200
166
54
2,277
1,387
2011-12
3,174
1,259
195
58
2,439
1,505
1,303
160
51
2,567
1,365. 5
222. 5
2012-13
2,948.
2013-14
3,269
474
1,360
188
52
2,697
1,383
225
2014-156
4,042
543
1,486
179
63
2,786
1,521
263
4,338
585
1,935
190
67
2,954
1,622
267
2015-16
449.
1/
The chart does not include contributions for University of California pension or retiree healthcare costs.
2/
In addition to the Executive Branch, this includes Judicial and Legislative Branch employees. Contributions for judges and
elected officials are included in JRS, JRS II, and LRS.
These amounts include health, dental, and vision contributions for employees within state civil service, the Judicial and
Legislative Branches, and CSU.
Includes repayment of $500 million from 2003-04 Supplemental Benefit Maintenance Account withholding/lawsuit loss
(interest payments not included).
Beginning in 2012-13, CSU pension and healthcare costs are displayed separately.
3/
4/
5/
6/
Estimated as of the 2015-16 May Revision. 2015-16 General Fund costs are estimated to be $2,281 million for CalPERS,
$584 million for CSU CalPERS, $1,617 million for Retiree Health & Dental, and $1,385 million for Active Health and Dental.
The remaining totals are all General Fund.
86
Vacant Positions Current law includes a provision that requires the elimination
of positions, thatat the end of a fiscal year, havebeen vacant for six consecutive
months ormore. Intended as a mechanism to maintain accurate numbers of
authorized personnel, reviews by both the Legislative Analysts Office and the
Department of Finance in recent years have recommended its repeal due to its
ineffectiveness and overly bureaucraticapproach. TheMayRevision proposes
abolishing this law and replacing it with a better mechanism to provide monitoring
of and greater transparency into departmentsbudgets. Neither existing law nor
the proposed new mechanism affect how much funding a departmentreceives.
Theoverall goal is to more accurately reflect how departments spend their funds on
personnel versus operationexpenses. Tothis end, Finance will develop a biannual
process for reconciling department budgets, specifically for positions and operating
expenses andequipment. Thisreconciliation process will first take place in the
201516 budget year and the results will be utilized to build departments baseline
budgets in the 201617 GovernorsBudget. Theappropriate mix of funding between
positions and operating budgets will be based on a departments past three years of
expenditures in specifiedcategories.
87
88
Broaden Recruitment Efforts Teams are reviewing the statewide recruitment plan
and reaching out to various groups, including veterans, midcareer professionals,
andthe newest generation of employees (those designated millennials), tobetter
understand how to attract and retain a diverse, multigenerational workforce that
reflects Californiaspopulation. Teams are reviewing the use of social media
and other online career tools to more effectively recruit and communicate with
potentialemployees.
Expand Department Delegation Authority Inthe past several years, CalHR has
delegated authority to departments for multiple tasks, including resolving unlawful
appointments and approving exceptional allocations (which allow individuals to
perform duties different from their assignedclassification). Thisgives departments
greater flexibility to address their management and personnelneeds. Ateam is
Judicial Branch
The Judicial Branch consists of the Supreme Court, courts of appeal, trial courts and
the JudicialCouncil. Thetrial courts are funded with a combination of resources from
the GeneralFund, county maintenanceofeffort requirements, fees, andothercharges.
Allother portions of the Judicial Branch primarily receive funding from the GeneralFund.
TheMayRevision includes total funding of $3.8billion ($1.7billion GeneralFund) forthe
JudicialBranch.
SignificantAdjustments:
89
Debt Service
The MayRevision reflects the following adjustments for debt servicecosts:
Current Year Debt Service GeneralFund debt service expenditures have increased
by $35.3million compared to the Governors Budget, fora total of $5.2billion.
Thisreflects increased General Obligation debt service costs ($4.7billiontotal)
andno change for lease revenue bond debt service costs ($505.3milliontotal).
Theminor increase in General Obligation debt service cost is a result of bond
issuances over the previous years increasing debt service costs at a faster pace than
bonds beingretired.
90
JanuaryPercentageGrowth:2.91%
MayRevisionPercentageGrowth:3.82%
JanuaryPercentageGrowth:0.88%
MayRevisionPercentageGrowth:0.94%
JanuaryPercentageGrowth:0.31%
MayRevisionPercentageGrowth:0.39%
91
Economic Outlook
Economic Outlook
93
Economic Outlook
Figure ECO-01
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
Forecast
4.6%
4.5%
3.5%
3.4%
2.7%
2.2%
1.8%
2.0%
3.0%
2.8%
2.2%
3.1%
2.6% 2.5%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-2.1%
2016:Q4
2016:Q3
2016:Q2
2016:Q1
2015:Q4
2015:Q3
2015:Q2
2015:Q1
2014:Q4
2014:Q3
2014:Q2
2014:Q1
2013:Q4
2013:Q3
2013:Q2
2013:Q1
-3.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; CA Department of Finance May Revision Forecast
After the Governors Budget forecast was finalized, oilprices fell by more than 30percent
before rebounding slightly in April2015. Prices are now expected to rise gradually over
the forecast, butare still lower than the previousforecast. Lower gasoline prices allow
consumers to buy other goods, supportinggrowth. Besides the growth in personal
consumption, investment is also beginning to pick up, bothin the housing sector and
bybusinesses. However, exports are expected to grow more slowly in coming years
due to weaker globalgrowth. TheFederal Reserve has not specified when it will raise
the interest rate, andthe forecast assumes this will begin in the second half of 2015 and
gradually thereafter as the economyimproves.
94
Economic Outlook
Figure ECO-02
California
U.S.
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
2016 as younger workers join the labor force in largenumbers. Inaddition, although the
drought will affect the farm sector in 2015, theforecast assumes the drought does not
continue into 2016. Theimpact on other sectors is expected to be limited, withsmall
overall impacts given Californias diversifiedeconomy.
Personal income also increased in 2014 more than previously estimated, andis consistent
with more people finding work and business profitsrising. Alleleven major industry
sectors added jobs in 2014 thefirst time this has happened since the recovery began
in 2009. Theincrease in wages is offset in part by slower growth in interest and other
investment income, given a more gradual increase in interestrates.
The number of housing permits issued remained unchanged in 2014 compared with
2013. Issuance began to increase in early 2015, andthe forecast expects this trend
tocontinue. Housing prices, asmeasured by the median sales price of existing
singlefamily homes, continue toincrease. Nonresidential permits grew strongly, by
13.4percent on average in 2014, andare expected to maintain solidgrowth.
95
Economic Outlook
Risks to Consider
There are a few key risks in the economy in the shortterm. Forinstance, onepotential
risk is that there could be a correction in the stockmarket. 2014marked the sixth year
of positive growth in the stockmarket. Annual growth averaged more than 12percent in
both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Indices over these six years, amuch
faster rate of increase than in the overalleconomy. Pessimism about economic growth
prospects could lead to a correction in the stockmarket.
In addition, manyof the UnitedStates major trade partners, including China and
European Union countries, haverecently experienced economicslowdowns. Onedirect
impact of global economic slowdowns is that these trade partners purchase fewer
products from the UnitedStates, which could lead to slower economic growth for the
UnitedStates. Thisglobal slowdown could directly impact Californias corporate profits,
employment, andpersonalincome.
96
Economic Outlook
Figure ECO-03
2010
$ 14,964
2011
$
2013
2012
15,518
16,163
2014
16,768
17,419
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
$ 18,964
18,117
2.5%
1.6%
2.3%
2.2%
2.4%
2.8%
2.7%
1.3%
1.6%
1.3%
1.6%
1.7%
2.2%
2.1%
1.7%
0.7%
1.3%
0.8%
0.9%
0.7%
1.2%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.7%
Net exports
Government purchases of goods and services
Personal income, $ billions
0.0%
$ 12,429
-0.7%
$
13,202
-0.3%
$
13,888
-0.4%
$
14,167
0.0%
$
14,729
25.0%
4.0%
11.4%
4.2%
-0.8%
605
624
830
991
1,040
586
612
784
930
1,001
$ 173,100
$ 166,200
$ 177,200
$ 197,400
$ 208,900
0.2%
$
15,302
0.1%
$ 15,983
8.0%
6.5%
--
--
1,121
1,308
--
--
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.3%
1.2%
1.6%
3.2%
2.1%
1.5%
1.6%
0.0%
2.2%
9.6%
8.9%
8.1%
7.4%
6.2%
5.5%
5.2%
153.9
153.6
155.0
155.4
155.9
157.9
160.1
130.3
131.8
134.1
136.4
139.0
141.9
144.0
California
Personal income, $ billions
44
1,579
19.3%
1,686
11.3%
47
1,805
1,857
1,944
2,038
2,144
3.9%
3.6%
--
--
59
86
86
99
111
--
36
36
45
59
69
--
$ 305,010
$ 286,040
$ 319,310
$ 407,150
$ 447,010
--
1.5%
--
1.3%
2.6%
2.2%
1.5%
1.8%
1.0%
2.3%
12.1%
11.6%
10.2%
8.8%
7.5%
6.5%
6.0%
18.3
18.4
18.5
18.6
18.8
19.0
19.1
14.2
14.4
14.7
15.2
15.7
16.1
16.5
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
Construction
3.9%
3.9%
4.0%
4.2%
4.3%
4.5%
4.7%
Manufacturing
8.8%
8.7%
8.5%
8.3%
8.1%
7.9%
7.7%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
2.0%
18.5%
18.6%
18.6%
18.4%
18.4%
18.4%
18.3%
Information
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
Financial activities
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.2%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
14.6%
14.9%
15.2%
15.4%
15.6%
15.7%
15.8%
High technology
Trade, transportation, and utilities
2.2%
2.3%
2.4%
2.4%
2.6%
2.7%
2.9%
High technology
14.5%
14.5%
14.8%
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
10.6%
10.7%
10.9%
11.0%
11.2%
11.3%
11.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.5%
3.6%
3.6%
17.2%
16.7%
16.2%
15.6%
15.4%
15.3%
15.1%
Other services
Government
Forecast based on data available as of April 2015
Percent changes calculated from unrounded data.
97
Revenue Estimates
Revenue Estimates
fter accounting for transfers such as to the Rainy Day Fund, GeneralFund revenues
under the MayRevision forecast are higher than at the Governors Budget by
$700million in 201314, $3.3billion in 201415, and$1.7billion in 201516. Excluding
transfers and the revenue loss associated with the proposed Earned Income Tax Credit,
revenues are $6.7billion higher over theseyears. FigureREV01 compares the revenue
forecasts, bysource, inthe Governors Budget and the MayRevision. Total MayRevision
revenue, including transfers, isprojected to be $111.3billion in 201415 and $115billion in
201516.
The economic forecast has improved somewhat since the GovernorsBudget.
Theimproved economic forecast, along with the strong cash trends through April support
the significant increase inrevenues. Onnet, cashtax receipts are up about $3.2billion
over the forecast through the end ofApril. Cashdata through April suggest that personal
income tax receipts are up about $2.7billion, corporation tax receipts are up almost
$250million, andsales and use tax (salestax) receipts are up $230million.
A cash surplus or shortfall can have different effects on the revenue forecast for all
three open revenue years, depending on the source of the cash and other factors such
asaccruals.
99
Revenue Estimates
B 798
Figure REV-01
Governor's
Budget
Source
Fiscal 13-14: Final
Personal Income Tax
$66,560
Sales and Use Tax
22,263
Corporation Tax
8,858
Insurance Tax
2,363
Alcoholic Beverage
354
Cigarette
86
Other Revenues
1,813
Subtotal
$102,298
Transfers
376
Total
$102,675
Fiscal 14-15
Personal Income Tax
$71,699
Sales and Use Tax
23,438
Corporation Tax
9,618
Insurance Tax
2,490
Alcoholic Beverage
367
Cigarette
84
Other Revenues
1,954
College Access Transfer
600
Subtotal
$110,250
Other Transfers /1
-2,208
Total
$108,042
Fiscal 15-16
Personal Income Tax
$75,213
Sales and Use Tax
25,166
Corporation Tax
10,173
Insurance Tax
2,531
Alcoholic Beverage
374
Cigarette
82
Other Revenues
1,594
College Access Transfer
350
Subtotal
$115,482
Other Transfers /1
-2,102
Total
$113,380
Three-Year Total (including BSA transfer)
May
Revision
Change
$67,025
22,263
9,093
2,363
354
86
1,814
$102,998
376
$103,375
$466
0
234
0
0
0
0
$700
0
$700
0.7%
0.0%
2.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.7%
0.0%
0.7%
$75,384
23,684
9,809
2,486
353
84
1,556
4
$113,361
-2,054
$111,307
$3,686
246
191
-4
-14
0
-398
-596
$3,110
154
$3,265
5.1%
1.0%
2.0%
-0.2%
-3.7%
0.0%
-20.4%
$77,700
25,240
10,342
2,556
360
82
1,652
100
$118,031
-2,999
$115,033
$2,487
74
168
26
-14
0
59
-250
$2,549
-897
$1,653
$5,617
3.3%
0.3%
1.7%
1.0%
-3.7%
0.0%
3.7%
-7.0%
3.0%
2.2%
42.7%
1.5%
100
Revenue Estimates
Sales tax receipts are higher by $246million in 201415 and $74million in 201516.
Muchof the currentyear revenue gain is attributable to lower utilization of the recent
manufacturing sales tax exemption in the first two quarters of 201415.
LongTerm Forecast
The MayRevision economic forecast reflects steady growth over the next fouryears.
Theprojected average growth rate inU.S. realgross domestic product over the next
four years is 2.6percent. While the forecast does not project a recession, thecurrent
expansion has already exceeded the average postwar expansion by over ayear.
FigureREV02 shows the forecast for the largest three GeneralFund revenues from
201314 through 201819. Total GeneralFund revenue from these sources is expected to
grow from $98.4billion in 201314 to $123.5billion in 201819. Theaverage yearoveryear
growth rate over this period is 4.8percent.
Figure REV-02
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
Average
Year-Over-Year
Growth
$67.0
$75.4
$77.7
$81.7
$84.7
$84.2
4.7%
$22.3
$23.7
$25.2
$25.8
$25.9
$27.1
4.0%
Corporation Tax
$9.1
$9.8
$10.3
$11.1
$11.7
$12.2
6.1%
#NUM!
Total
$98.4
$108.9
$113.3
$118.5
$122.2
$123.5
4.8%
Growth
6.1%
10.7%
4.0%
4.6%
3.2%
1.0%
101
Revenue Estimates
102
Revenue Estimates
the gains that individual taxpayers accrued during these years will be realized in 2015 and
2016. Specifically, capital gains income was revised up from $115billion to $120billion
in 2014, $103billion to $116billion in 2015, and$98billion to $109billion in 2016.
Theforecast assumes capital gains return to normal levels in relation to personal income
by 2017 oneyear later than was previouslyestimated. Preliminary actual capital gains
income in 2013 was $79billion compared to the $80billionforecast.
The personal income tax forecast includes Proposition30 revenues, which are estimated
at $6.6billion in 201415 and $6.7billion in 201516.
Corporation Tax
The corporation tax forecast reflects an increase of $234million in 201314, $60million in
201415, and$100million in 201516. Lower utilization of the College Access Tax Credit
increases corporation tax receipts and reduces the GeneralFundtransfer.
Compared to the Governors Budget, therevenue increase in 201314 and 201415 can be
attributed mainly to higher cash receipts through April2015.
Insurance Tax
The insurance tax forecast reflects a decrease of $4million in 201415 and an increase
of $26million in 201516. Therevenue changes are primarily due to a lower refund
estimate related to a Board of Equalization decision in the California Automobile Insurance
Companycase.
103
Revenue Estimates
Property Tax
The MayRevision estimates statewide property tax revenues will increase 6.14percent
in 201415 and 5.52percent in 201516, which is slightly higher than the respective
6.1percent and 5.25percent growth rates estimated at GovernorsBudget. Roughly
41percent ($16.7billion) willgo to K14 schools in 201516. While this includes $1billion
that schools are expected to receive pursuant to the dissolution of the redevelopment
agencies, itexcludes $409million shifted from schools to cities and counties to replace
sales and use tax revenues redirected from those entities to repay the Economic
RecoveryBonds. Italso excludes the $7.2billion shifted to cities and counties to
replace Vehicle License Fee (VLF) revenue losses stemming from the reduced VLF rate
of0.65percent.
104
Staff Assignments
Executive Office
Michael Cohen
Director of Finance
(916)445-4141
Keely Bosler
Chief Deputy Director, Budget
(916) 445-9862
Todd Jerue
Chief Operating Officer
(916)445-4923
Eraina Ortega
Chief Deputy Director, Policy
(916) 445-8582
Kari Krogseng
Chief Counsel
(916) 322-0971
H.D. Palmer
Jacqueline Wong-Hernandez
Deputy Director, External Affairs
Legislative Director
(916) 323-0648 (916) 445-8610
Amy Costa
Diane Cummins
Advisor to the Director on
Special Advisor to the Governor,
Higher Education
State and Local Realignment
(916) 445-4141 (916) 445-4141
Education