Moore’s Law and One-to-One Laptop programs

At some level of usefulness and power almost everyone would consider it a good idea to provide
students with laptops, provided the cost of providing the laptops was reasonable. Circa 2004
relatively few people consider laptops for students to be worth the costs. Most people believe
that laptops need to be significantly more useful and less expensive if they are to be provided to
students. Some people believe that laptops need to be vastly more useful and much less
expensive for one-to-one laptop programs to be considered. The shape of the curve below is a
guess. I don’t have the data needed to create a curve that reflects real opinions, but for our
purposes the estimate below will work just fine.
Likely Attitudes About One-To-One Laptop Programs Circa 2004
Moore’s Law most closely matches the growth curve for Random Access Memory (RAM)
capacity. The data below, with the exception of the RAM bars, is like the curve to the left, an
educated guess. Some technologies may change in the years ahead. Batteries, for instance,
may be replaced or supplemented by micro fuel cells.
Since the screens and batteries of laptops in 2004 are
already satisfactory for student laptops, changes in the
usefulness of laptops will primarily be determined by the
more rapidly developing components like the processor,
RAM and hard drive. Increases in these three components
have the most direct impact on the software that can be
created for a computer. Since software determines the
usefulness of a computer, and software possibilities are
closely tied to components that on average are evolving at a
Moore’s Law pace, it seems reasonable to use Moore’s Law
to predict the future usefulness of laptop computers.

Number
of
People

Laptops are useful Laptops need to be Laptops need to be

and inexpensive significantly more vastly more useful
enough now to useful and less and much less
justify one-to-one expensive to justify expensive to justify
programs. one-to-one programs. one-to-one
(Very Positive) (Neutral) programs.
(Very Negative)

What determines the usefulness of a laptop computer? The short answer is the things you can
do with it. The things you can with it are determined by the software available for the laptop.
The software available for the laptop depends on the underlying hardware components of the
laptop. Things like:

•processor speed
•amount of random access memory
•hard drive capacity
•screen size and resolution
•networking capabilities
•optical drive capacity
•battery life
•number and variety of ports

All of these components are developing at different speeds. Some, like hard drive capacity, are
increasing faster than Moore’s Law predicted 18 month doubling. Some, like screen
resolution, are increasing much more slowly than the rate of Moore’s Law.
 Using Moore’s Law to Predict the Future of Schools
When we combine a graph of current attitudes about the usefulness of one-to-one laptop programs (tipped on its side) with a graph of the predicted future usefulness Why might this analysis not be an accurate
of laptops, it appears that one-to-one computing is likely to become very common in the next ten years. The blue line in the graph below points out that as of 2004 the predictor of the future of one-to-one laptop
current usefulness of laptops matched only those holding very positive opinions about one-to-one programs. With the usefulness of laptops doubling by 2006 - the programs?
purple line - a slightly larger group will have found laptops reaching a level of power justifying the start of one-to-one laptop programs. By 2008, another doubling
should lead to something like ten percent of the population considering laptops a good idea. By 2010 roughly half the population should be wanting one-to-one At a simple level opinions about laptops may
programs. By 2012 the majority of the population will be supporting one-to-one programs. By 2014, ten years from now, almost everyone will be supportive of laptop not be distributed as shown. It may be that
programs in schools. opinions will shift over time, see below, with a
large percentage of people always believing
Very that laptops are just not useful enough yet.
Negative I assume in this chart a roughly constant
laptop price of around $1500. At any given
time lower priced laptops are available but
with fewer features, and thus less usefulness.
(See more about laptop costs on page 11.)
Attitudes About One-To-One Laptop Programs Circa 2004

Alternatively, the distribution of opinions about

laptops might be much more tightly bunched,
leading to much more rapid implementing of
one-to-one programs.

It is also possible that diminishing returns in

Very usefulness will characterize developments in
Positive computer power. More power may not
translate into more usefulness. I think this is
# of people 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 unlikely but it is a possibility
Usefulness of Laptops - Increasing Roughly at the Rate of Moore’s Law - Doubling Every Two Years