Fehmarn Belt Forecast 2014

- Update of the FTC-Study of 2002

- Treatment of Great Belt in the Forecast
(Passenger Traffic) -

for
Femern A/S

2015

Intraplan
Consult GmbH
Orleansplatz 5a
81667 Mnchen
Tel: +49 (0) 89 45911-0
Email: info@intraplan.de

BVU Beratergruppe
Wirtschaft + Verkehr GmbH
Wentzingerstr. 19
79106 Freiburg
Tel: +49 (0) 761 21 77 23 40
Email: post@bvu-verkehr.de

ROLE OF GREAT BELT IN THE NORTH-SOUTH TRAFFIC

The traffic function of the Great Belt Fixed Link (GBFL) is mainly the connection between Eastern and Western Denmark.

At the same time however, it provides an important international connection between Eastern
Denmark/the Scandinavian peninsula and Germany/the continent (North-South traffic),

Therefore the Great Belt had to be considered in the FTC-study

(1)

To be able to capture the total market of the North-South traffic

(2)

To be able to measure the existing market share of this connection and the possible
shift to the FBFL when in operation

Indeed, the results of the FTC-study indicate that a considerable share of the traffic jump
caused by the FBFL is related to shifts from Great Belt to FBFL (around 55 % of the 1,3 million
cars/year).

Although the route via the GBFL is 140 kilometers longer compared to the route via RdbyPuttgarden for most traffic flows, it is a very attractive route:
Considering waiting times and times for access and egress for the ferries the travel times
are approximately the same between the route via GB and via the Rdby Puttgarden ferry-line
However the passage via the Rdby-Puttgarden ferry-line is considerably more expensive
(around 65 per car) than the toll on Great Belt (33 per car) even if taking additional fuel
costs on the GB route into consideration.

And due to rising fares on the ferry compared to stable toll rates on GBFL the attractivity of the
ferry-line is decreasing. This is the main reason for the stagnating car transports on the ferryline and vice versa is one reason for the strong growth of the GBFL transport figures.

TREATMENT OF GREAT BELT IN THE FTC-STUDY

From different sources in Germany (Bundesverkehrswegeplanung, tourism surveys and others)

and Denmark (national transport model, passenger surveys) a reliable database of the traffic
between Germany and Scandinavia could be created for the study, including main traffic flows
(origins and destinations) and modal split. To be able to capture the traffic totals in the NorthSouth traffic reliable road and railway counts and ferry statistics (not only for RdbyPuttgarden but for all other relevant lines) have been used. Among that for GBFL the traffic per
vehicle category is reported regularly and reliably on monthly basis.

Samples of plate counts in summer indicate a share of 5 to 6 % of foreign cars on GBFL. Foreigners use the GBFL mainly on North-South traffic. In winter the share is lower, 2 to 3 %, which
is logical as in winter the price differences between GBFL (no seasonal or daytime variation of
toll rates) and the ferry line Rdby-Puttgarden (much higher prices in peak periods) is lower than
in summer.

Assuming a similar number of Danish cars using GBFL in north-south traffic instead of domestic
traffic between east and west Denmark, in total a share of 8 % of the GBFL traffic can be assigned to international resp. north-south traffic on GB. This is a quite reliable figure for 2011.
In 2014/15 this share should be higher due to a growing price gap between GBFL (stable toll
rates and decreasing fuel costs for longer distance) and Rdby-Puttgarden (raising prices).

The numbers for the GB transports in the north-south traffic (713.000 cars in 2011) have been
added to the transports on the relevant ferry lines (around 2.9 million cars per year in 2011) to
get the totals of north-south traffic. At the same time it has been used in the same way as the
ferry statistics: to calibrate the route choice model for the forecasting.

EFFECTS OF THE FBFL

With FBFL some advantages of the GBFL compared to the existing Rdby-Puttgarden connection will cease to exist: the FBFL toll will stay roughly the same as the ferry line but the FBFL will
be approximately one hour faster. That means it is also one hour faster than the GB route for
most relations. Therefore a big share of traffic will divert from GBFL to FBFL, which is partly a
re-diversion due to the fact that, today, raising prices on the Rdby-Puttgarden ferry line is increasingly pushing traffic from the Rdby-Puttgarden connection to the GB route.