Decline Curves

Decline Curves that plot flow rate vs. time are the most common tools for
forecasting production and monitoring well performance in the field. These curves
quickly show by graphic means which wells or fields are producing as expected or
under producing. Mainly used because they are easy to set up and to use in the
field. They are not based on any of the physics of the flow of oil and gas through
the rock formations, empirical in nature. The most common forms are daily flow
rates vs. the month. Water and gas rates are commonly plotted along with the oil
rate, or GOR and WOR. Cumulative production vs. the months is also very
common, both oil and water can be plotted.
These plots are plotted both on linear plots and semi-log plots with the q on the log
scale.
Exponential decline (constant fractional decline)
Harmonic decline, and
Hyperbolic decline.

1 dq
bq d
q dt

b & d empirical constants based on production data

d= 0 exponential decline d=1 harmonic decline
0<d<1 hyperbolic decline
Exponential Decline
The relative decline rate and production rate decline equations for the exponential
decline model can be derived from volumetric reservoir model. Cumulative
production expression is obtained by integrating the production rate decline
equation.
Relative Decline Rate
Consider an oil well drilled in a volumetric oil reservoir. Suppose the wells
production rate starts to decline when a critical (lowest permissible) bottom hole
pressure is reached. Under the pseudo-steady state flow condition, the production
rate at a given decline time t can be expressed as:

where

kh( pt p cwf )

(2)

0.472re
s
141.2 B0 ln
r
w

= average reservoir pressure at decline time t,

= the critical bottom hole pressure maintained during the production
decline.
pt

c
wf

The cumulative oil production of the well after the production decline time t can be
expressed as:
kh( pt p cwf )

Np

0.472re
0
s
141.2 Bo ln
r
w

dt

(3)

The cumulative oil production after the production decline upon decline time t can
also be evaluated based on the total reservoir compressibility:
Np

where

ct N i
p 0 pt
Bo

(4)

c t = total reservoir compressibility,

N i = initial oil in place in the well drainage area,
p 0 = average reservoir pressure at decline time zero.

Substituting Eq (3) into Eq (4) yields:

t

kh( pt p cwf )

0.472re
0
s
141.2 Bo ln
r
w

dt

ct N i
p 0 pt
Bo

Taking derivative on both sides of this equation with respect to time t gives the
differential equation for reservoir pressure:

(5)

kh( pt p cwf )
0.472re
s
141.2 ln
r
w

ct N i

dpt
dt

(6)

Since the left-hand-side of this equation is q and Eq (2) gives

dq

dt

dpt
0.472re dt
s
141.2 B0 ln
r
w


kh

(7)

Eq (6) becomes
0.472re
s
141.2ct N i ln
r
w
dq

q
kh
dt

(8)

or the relative decline rate equation of

1 dq
b
q dt

(9)

where
b

kh
0.472re
s
141.2ct N i ln
rw

(10)

Production Rate Decline

Equation (6) can be expressed as:
b( pt p cwf )

dpt
dt

(11)

By separation of variables, Eq (8.11) can be integrated

t

pt

p0

bdt

(p

dpt
c
t p wf )

(12)

to yield an equation for reservoir pressure decline:

pt p cwf p0 p cwf

bt

Substituting Eq (13) into Eq (2) gives well production rate decline equation:

(13)

kh( p0 p cwf )
0.472re
s
141.2 Bo ln
rw

e bt

(14)

or
q

bct N i
( p0 p cwf ) e bt
Bo

(15)

which is the exponential decline model commonly used for production decline
analysis of solution-gas-drive reservoirs. In practice, the following form of Eq (15)
is used:
q qi e bt

(16)

where qi is the production rate at t = 0.

It can be shown that

q
q2 q3

...... n e b . That is, the fractional decline is

q1 q2
qn1

constant for exponential decline.

Cumulative Production
Integration of Eq (16) over time gives an expression for the cumulative oil
production since decline of
t

N p qdt qi e bt dt

(17)

i.e.,
Np

qi
1 e bt .
b

(18)

1
qi q .
b

(19)

Since q qi e bt , Eq (18) becomes

Np

8 Determination of Decline Rate

The constant b is called the continuous decline rate. Its value can be determined
from production history data. If production rate and time data are available, the bvalue can be obtained based on the slope of the straight line on a semi-log plot. In
fact, taking logarithm of Eq (8.16) gives:
ln q ln qi bt

(20)

which implies that the data should form a straight line with a slope of -b on the
log(q) versus t plot, if exponential decline is the right model. Picking up any two
points, (t1, q1) and (t2, q2), on the straight line will allow analytical determination of
b-value because
ln q1 ln qi bt1

(21)

and
ln q2 ln qi bt2

(22)

q
1
ln 1 .
t2 t1 q2

(23)

give
b

If production rate and cumulative production data are available, the b-value can be
obtained based on the slope of the straight line on an Np versus q plot. In fact,
rearranging Eq (19) yields:
q qi bN p

(24)

Picking up any two points, (Np1, q1) and (Np2, q2), on the straight line will allow
analytical determination of b-value because
q1 qi bN p1

(25)

and
q2 qi bN p 2

(26)

give
b

q1 q2
.
N p 2 N p1

(27)

Depending on the unit of time t, the b can have different units such as month-1 and
year-1. The following relation can be derived:
ba 12bm 365bd .

where ba, bm, and bd are annual, monthly, and daily decline rates.

(28)

Effective Decline Rate

Because the exponential function is not easy to use in hand calculations,
traditionally the effective decline rate has been used. Since e x 1 x for small xvalues based on Taylors expansion, e b 1 b holds true for small values of b.
The b is substituted by b' , the effective decline rate, in field applications. Thus Eq
(16) becomes
q qi 1 b'

Again, it can be shown that

(29)

q
q 2 q3

...... n 1 b' .
q1 q2
qn1

Depending on the unit of time t, the b' can have different units such as month-1 and
year-1. The following relation can be derived:

1 b'a 1 b'm 12 1 b'd 365 .

(30)

where b' a, b' m, and b' d are annual, monthly, and daily effective decline rates.

Example Problem
Given that a well has declined from 100 stb/day to 96 stb/day during a one-month
period, use the exponential decline model to perform the following tasts:
a) Predict the production rate after 11 more months
b) Calculate the amount of oil produced during the first year
c) Project the yearly production for the well for the next 5 years.
Solution:
a) Production rate after 11 more months:
bm

t1m

q
1
ln 0 m
t 0 m q1m

1 100
ln
0.04082 /month
1 96

Rate at end of one year

q1m q0m e bmt 100e 0.0408212 61.27 stb/day

If the effective decline rate b is used,

b' m

q0 m q1m 100 96

0.04/month .
q0 m
100

From
1 b' y 1 b'm 1 0.04
12

12

one gets
b' y 0.3875/year

Rate at end of one year

q1 q0 1 b' y 1001 0.3875 61.27 stb/day

b) The amount of oil produced during the first year:

by 0.0408212 0.48986/year

N p ,1

q0 q1 100 61.27

365 28,858 stb

by
0.48986

or

100 1
1
bd ln

0.001342
day
96 30.42
N p ,1

100
1 e 0.001342365 28,858 stb
0.001342

c) Yearly production for the next 5 years:

N p,2

61.27
1 e 0.001342365 17,681 stb
0.001342

q2 qi e bt 100e 0.0408212( 2) 37.54 stb/day

N p ,3

37.54
1 e 0.001342365 10,834 stb
0.001342

q3 qi e bt 100e 0.0408212(3) 23.00 stb/day

N p,4

23.00
1 e 0.001342365 6,639 stb
0.001342

q4 qi e bt 100e 0.0408212( 4) 14.09 stb/day

N p ,5

14.09
1 e 0.001342365 4,061 stb
0.001342

In summary,

Year
0
1
2
3
4
5

Rate at End of
Year (stb/day)
100.00
61.27
37.54
23.00
14.09
8.64

Yearly
Production (stb)
28,858
17,681
10,834
6,639
4,061
68,073

Go do,
Celtic #3
Acme Southeast San Andres, Ponderosa Petroleum