PropTiger 2014 Indian Real Estate Market Overview

2014 Hope at the end of year of despair
Jan 2015
Executive Summary
2014 was a mixed bag for Indian real estate market

- At one end real estate market continued to slow down nearly on all parameters
- At other end new government announced multiple policy initiatives to revive the market
Launch of new supply in top markets dropped by 52% whereas sales slowed down only by 37%
which helped bring unsold inventory down from 2013
At present only 14% of unsold stock is more than 3 years old, whereas 69% of unsold stock
consists was launched <2 years old
A distinct focus in the year 2014 was on affordable housing

- Government announced relaxation in FDI rules for affordable housing as well as increased the property
budget to 50 Lakhs to be counted in affordable housing
- > 50% of sales and supply in 2014 was in affordable budget range
Except Mumbai and Gurgaon, most other markets have significant portion of unsold stock in the
affordable housing category
Though recovery in real estate was projected in last 2 quarters of the year driven by stable and
positive government, yet it turns out it will take 2 3 more quarters before impact of economic
recovery is visible in the real estate
Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015
2014 saw new real estate supply declining by 52%

# of units
600,000
New launches in Top-9 cities*

543,511
543,511
500,000
400,000
-52%
300,000
259,660
200,000
100,000
0
CY 2013
CY 2014
Notes: * Top 9 Cities are Mumbai (includes Navi Mumbai & Thane), Pune, Noida (includes Greater Noida & Yamuna Expressway), Gurgaon
(includes Bhiwadi, Dharuhera & Sohna), Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Ahmedabad
Situation has worsened over the quarters

# of units
100,000
New launches in Top-9 cities*

92,465
92,465
90,000
80,000
67,325
70,000
60,431
-57%
60,000
50,000
39,439
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Q1-CY'14
Q2-CY'14
Q3-CY'14
Q4-CY'14
All major cities saw decline in new supply

-40%
-62%
Navi Mumbai Gurgaon
-58%
-68%
Bhiwadi2
Sohna
Chennai
Hyderabad
-61%
4%
-54%
-68%
Ahmedabad
-58%
-61%
CY'13
CY'14
Sohna
Chennai
8,456
Bhiwadi 2
26,593
Gurgaon
3,765
3,928
Navi
Mumbai
20,132
43,326
47,987
Thane
23,837
9,215
Mumbai
22,277
7,148
Pune
22,716
9,454
Noida 1
18,402
20,000
Bangalore
Kolkata
67,623
83,477
40,000
Thane
MMR total new supply

CY13 (114,154 Units)
CY14 (54,010 Units)
43,451
26,154
60,000
58,347
100,000
80,000
Mumbai
Total new unit launches -CY13 vs CY14
40,864
120,000
-46%
107,333
# of units
-51%
Pune
Hyderabad
Kolkata
23,348
9,161
-46%
Noida1
27,778
11,561
Bangalore
36,838
% change in new
launches
(CY13 CY14)
Ahmedabad
Notes: 1. Noida includes: Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressway

2. Bhiwadi includes: Bhiwadi, Rewari, Dharuhera, Behror, Manesar and Neemrana
Large part of new supply was affordable (<50 lakhs)

# of units
300,000
Budget range wise unit launches in Top-9 cities*

(Jan14 to Dec14)
17%
250,000
20%
200,000
9%
23,369
100%
44,142
51,932
150,000
37%
259,660
100,000
50,000
96,074
17%
44,142
0
< 25 Lakhs
25-50 Lakhs
50-75 Lakhs
75-100 Lakhs
1+ Crore
Total Units
Development authorities also launched significant supply of

affordable units in 2014
Developer
Project Name
Project Status
City
Area
Micro-market
Launched
Units
DDA
2014 scheme
Completed
Delhi
Delhi
various
25,034
YEIDA
NA
Under Construction
Noida
Yamuna
Expressway
Sector 22A
2862
CIDCO
Valley Ship
Under construction
Mumbai
Navi Mumbai
Sector 36, Kharghar
1224
MHADA
NA
Completed
Mumbai
Mumbai
Mumbai and Konkan
2641
GLS Infratech
Arawali Homes
Upcoming
Gurgaon
Sohna
Sec-4, Sohna
1,424
Pivotal Infrastructure
Devaan
Upcoming
Gurgaon
Dwarka Expressway
Sec-84
896
MVN
Athens
Upcoming
Gurgaon
Sohna
Sec-5, Sohna
1,078
Signature Developers
Solera
Upcoming
Gurgaon
Dwarka Expressway
Sec-107
1,000
AVL Infrastructure
AVL Infra
Upcoming
Gurgaon
NH8
Sec-36A
1,480
Pivotal Infrastructure
Pivotal Sector 99
Upcoming
Gurgaon
Dwarka Expressway
Sec-99
992
Signature Developers
Synera
Upcoming
Gurgaon
New Gurgaon
Sector 81
824
Supertech
Basera
Upcoming
Gurgaon
SPR
Sector 79
1976
Raheja
Krishna Housing
Upcoming
Gurgaon
Sohna
Sector 14
1660
Under HUDA
affordable
policy
Notes: 1. Price weighed on number of BHK units in respective projects
Unlike new supply, sales have dropped only by 37%

# of units
Unit sales in Top-9 cities*
600,000
500,000
490,356
490,356
400,000
-37%
307,764
300,000
307,764
200,000
100,000
0
CY 2013
CY 2014
This has reduced unsold inventory units over the quarters

# of units
Unsold inventory at quarter end in Top-9 cities*
640,000
623,031
620,000
600,000
580,000
616,317
609,577
606,491
596,633
579,362
568,764
560,000
551,033
540,000
520,000
500,000
Q1-CY'13 Q2-CY'13 Q3-CY'13 Q4-CY'13 Q1-CY'14 Q2-CY'14 Q3-CY'14 Q4-CY'14
Affordable segment contributed more than 50% to sales

Sales in Top-9* cities by budget segment
100%
90%
24%
24%
24%
24%
26%
26%
27%
18%
18%
18%
20%
20%
21%
21%
57%
58%
58%
56%
54%
53%
53%
Q2-CY'13
Q3-CY'13
Q4-CY'13
Q1-CY'14
Q2-CY'14
Q3-CY'14
Q4-CY'14
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Affordable Segment
Notes: 1: Affordable Segment : Units within < 50 Lakhs budget range

2: Mid Segment : Units within 50-75 Lakhs budget range
3: Luxury Segment : Units in +75 Lakhs budget range
Mid Segment
Luxury Segment
Driven by large concentration of demand in 25-50 lakhs

budget range
Budget wise real estate consumer demand3 CY14
% of demand
100%
90%
0%
1%
3%
6%
9%
8%
6%
10%
0%
2%
5%
4%
9%
15%
22%
23%
27%
26%
75-100 Lakhs
44%
16%
13%
58%
70%
50-75 Lakhs
31%
63%
43%
60%
+1 crore
19%
13%
80%
1%
1%
2%
49%
22%
50%
25-50 Lakhs
68%
< 25 Lakhs
40%
48%
35%
65%
59%
30%
45%
67%
29%
24%
39%
20%
37%
34%
10%
0%
18%
16%
4%
7%
16%
15%
14%
4%
2%
1%
2%
2%
0%
1%

3. Based on survey of enquiries received by PropTiger
Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015 10
Drop in sales was severe in Noida, Gurgaon, Bhiwadi, Navi

Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Kolkata and Hyderabad
Annual new home sales (# of units)
City
CY'13
CY'14
Absorption Change
(CY'13 CY'14)
Bangalore
82,423
57,203
-31%
78,872
45,132
-43%
Pune
67,784
43,421
-36%
Mumbai
44,441
31,016
-30%
Thane
36,644
25,204
-31%
Navi Mumbai
24,161
13,881
-43%
Chennai
40,386
25,730
-36%
Hyderabad
24,674
13,561
-45%
Ahmedabad
25,756
14,515
-44%
Kolkata
21,304
16,247
-24%
Gurgaon
24,355
10,887
-55%
Bhiwadi 2
17,146
9,171
-47%
Sohna
2,410
1,796
-25%
Total Sales
490,356
307,764
-37%
Noida

Drop in sales is primarily contributed by new launches

# of units
70,000
60,000
Sales in Top-9* cities New launch vs Old projects

66,636
63,632
63,097
58,652
62,257
52,591
51,198
46,083
50,000
45,640
39,517
41,101
~34% drop in
last 7
quarters
16,896
~75% drop in
last 7
quarters
40,000
30,408
30,000
22,959
20,000
10,000
0
Q2-CY'13
Q3-CY'13
Q4-CY'13
New Launches (Launch date 6 months)
Q1-CY'14
Q2-CY'14
Q3-CY'14
Q4-CY'14
Old Projects ( Launch date > 6 months)
Mumbai and Noida have the most unsold inventory

# of units
Unsold Inventory levels in top 9 cities1 (Dec 2014)
120,000
105,881
100,000
94,872
Unsold Inventory = 127,191

80,000
60,157
60,000
Unsold Inventory = 45,087
58,463
44,084
43,791
40,000
25,652
24,644
25,886
22,516
22,317
20,000
18,472
4,298
Noida 1
Bangalore
Pune
Mumbai
Thane
Navi
Mumbai
Chennai
Hyderabad Ahmedabad
Kolkata
Gurgaon
Bhiwadi
Sohna

~14% of the unsold inventory is > 3 years old

Age of unsold inventory in top-9 cities* (Dec 2014)
% of units
100%
14%
100%
73,532
17%
90%
80%
96,279
37%
70%
60%
50%
551,033
205,814
40%
32%
30%
20%
175,408
10%
0%
1 Yr
1 Yr-2 Yrs
2 Yrs-3 Yrs
> 3 Yrs
Total Units
Notes: * Top 9 Cities are Mumbai (includes Navi Mumbai and Thane), Pune, Noida (includes Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressway), Gurgaon
(includes Bhiwadi, Dharuhera and Sohna), Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Ahmedabad
Noida and Mumbai have the above average level of > 3yrs
old unsold inventory
% of inventory
100%
90%
Age of unsold inventory in top-9 cities (Dec14)

4%
13%
14%
12%
14%
12%
10%
11%
19%
12%
> 3 Yr
24%
12%
80%
22%
70%
11%
23%
13%
18%
19%
24%
2 Yr-3 Yr
21%
35%
16%
42%
60%
37%
40%
50%
1 Yr-2 Yr
47%
35%
41%
41%
31%
35%
< 1 Yr
32%
40%
31%
30%
20%
41%
10%
39%
37%
31%
20%
24%
26%
28%
28%
26%
27%
0%
1
52% of unsold inventory is in affordable (<50 lakhs) category

Budget breakup of unsold inventory in top 9 cities (Dec14)
% of units
100%
19%
100%
1+ Crore
Total Units
90%
9%
80%
20%
70%
60%
37%
50%
40%
30%
20%
15%
10%
0%
< 25 Lakhs
25-50 Lakhs
50-75 Lakhs
75-100 Lakhs
Mumbai and Gurgaon have least share of affordable units

Budget breakup of unsold inventory (Dec14)
% of inventory
100%
8%
90%
4%
7%
8%
5%
12%
13%
19%
12%
19%
8%
10%
8%
8%
9%
12%
80%
12%
70%
16%
49%
24%
7%
11%
59%
25%
23%
+1 crore
75-100 Lakhs
20%
70%
60%
11%
14%
37%
49%
50-75 Lakhs
22%
28%
34%
50%
40%
52%
8%
33%
49%
43%
30%
< 25 Lakhs
40%
16%
42%
45%
16%
26%
10%
13%
0%
42%
7%
8%
36%
20%
35-50 Lakhs
22%
12%
14%
8%
5%
34%
17%
11%
11%

Demand in NCR cities continue to be dominated by investors

Consumer demand3 by consumer profile- CY14
End User Demand
% of demand
Investor Demand
100%
90%
16%
8%
12%
23%
25%
80%
23%
28%
24%
38%
42%
36%
41%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
84%
92%
88%
77%
75%
77%
58%
72%
76%
62%
64%
59%
20%
10%
0%
1

3. Based on survey of enquiries received by PropTiger
Though prices have been stagnant across the cities

Weighted average1 BSP (Rs /sq. ft.) of Apartment units
City
Jan14
Apr14
July14
Oct14
Dec14
Price Change
(Jan'14- Dec14)
Ahmedabad
2,731
2,751
2,772
2,778
2,785
2%
Bangalore
4,295
4,338
4,368
4,444
4,501
5%
Chennai
4,725
4,717
4,737
4,776
4,783
1%
Hyderabad
3,472
3,493
3,516
3,563
3,585
3%
Kolkata
3,817
3,860
3,910
4,037
4,058
6%
Pune
4,737
4,751
4,823
4,897
4,890
3%
Noida
4,482
4,467
4,496
4,467
4,475
0%
Greater Noida
3,434
3,470
3,463
3,440
3,485
1%
Yamuna Expressway
2,936
2,913
2,933
3,025
3,046
4%
Gurgaon
7,613
7,646
7,700
7,736
7,737
2%
Bhiwadi
2,791
2,797
2,781
2,826
2,833
2%
Sohna
3,935
3,991
4,174
3,981
4,113
5%
Mumbai
11,226
11,250
11,590
11,694
11,783
5%
Navi Mumbai
5,250
5,296
5,346
5,389
5,408
3%
Thane
5,530
5,547
5,561
5,639
5,585
1%
Notes: 1. Price weighed on number of units in respective projects in a city
Prices of new launches (<6 months old) have shown strong

increase in MMR
Weighted average1 BSP (Rs /sq. ft.) of units within 6 months of launch
City
Q2-CY'13
Q3-CY'13
Q4-CY'13
Q1-CY'14
Q2-CY'14
Q3-CY'14
Q4-CY'14
Price Change
(Q2-CY'13- Q4-CY14)
Ahmedabad
2,578
2,798
2,797
2,868
3,074
3,269
2,679
4%
Bangalore
4,065
4,194
4,236
4,259
4,134
4,321
4,363
7%
Chennai
4,638
4,617
4,765
4,550
4,642
4,581
4,319
-7%
Hyderabad
3,209
3,262
3,443
3,918
3,860
3,724
3,615
13%
Kolkata
3,442
3,459
3,248
3,388
3,493
3,917
3,805
11%
Pune
4,361
4,353
4,566
4,857
4,557
4,648
4,608
6%
Noida
3,754
3,821
4,546
4,283
4,017
3,707
3,583
-5%
Greater Noida
3,208
3,185
3,237
3,192
3,163
2,190
2,075
-35%
Yamuna Expressway
3,002
3,011
3,075
2,741
2,787
2,807
2,991
0%
Gurgaon
7,927
8,352
8,547
8,137
8,641
7,602
7,160
-10%
Bhiwadi
2,684
2,674
2,725
2,703
2,426
2,349
2,605
-3%
Sohna
3,609
3,609
3,757
3,940
4,736
3,418
3,588
-1%
Mumbai
10,884
12,341
12,076
10,684
10,124
10,867
14,086
29%
Navi Mumbai
4,517
4,012
4,190
4,590
5,069
5,161
4,993
11%
Thane
4,510
4,460
4,455
4,630
5,108
4,975
5,358
19%
Notes: 1. Price weighed on number of units in respective projects in a city
Way forward
Green shoots of recovery are visible
Economic growth has returned to 5%+ region in last 2 quarters
Declining crude prices and inflation has given RBI space to cut interest rates which in turn will bring down
home loan rates
Strong momentum is seen in office space absorption especially in Bangalore, Gurgaon and Pune
Affordable housing has moved into center from fringes

Affordable housing is not a buzzword anymore as many builders such as Mahindra Lifespaces, Shapoorji
Pallonji, Sobha developers have opened their affordable housing arm
Government has modified FDI rules to attract funds into affordable housing in addition to relaxing lending
rules
Development authorities are launching their own housing schemes to increase supply of affordable units
End user driven markets with strong economic growth will recover soon
Bangalore, Pune, Mumbai and Ahmedabad will be the first markets to recover from slowdown
Chennai might take time to recover due to changed political scenario
Investor driven NCR will take time to recover

Economic drivers are presently missing in Noida which is also struggling with oversupply
Gurgaon though is seeing economic recovery yet lack of infrastructure and high prices are hurdle in real
estate recovery
Contact PropTiger for:

Detailed analysis of Individual markets
Micro market surveys
Real estate data
Amit Ojha
Amit.Ojha@PropTiger.com
+91-9819 5215 78

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2014 Hope at the end of year of despair

2014 was a mixed bag for Indian real estate market

A distinct focus in the year 2014 was on affordable housing

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015

2014 saw new real estate supply declining by 52%

New launches in Top-9 cities*

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015

Situation has worsened over the quarters

New launches in Top-9 cities*

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015

All major cities saw decline in new supply

Navi Mumbai Gurgaon

MMR total new supply

Total new unit launches -CY13 vs CY14

Notes: 1. Noida includes: Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressway

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015

Large part of new supply was affordable (<50 lakhs)

Budget range wise unit launches in Top-9 cities*

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015

Development authorities also launched significant supply of

Sector 36, Kharghar

Mumbai and Konkan

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015

Unlike new supply, sales have dropped only by 37%

Unit sales in Top-9 cities*

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015

This has reduced unsold inventory units over the quarters

Unsold inventory at quarter end in Top-9 cities*

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015

Affordable segment contributed more than 50% to sales

Notes: 1: Affordable Segment : Units within < 50 Lakhs budget range

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015

Driven by large concentration of demand in 25-50 lakhs

Notes: 1. Noida includes: Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressway

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015 10

Drop in sales was severe in Noida, Gurgaon, Bhiwadi, Navi

Notes: 1. Noida includes: Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressway

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015 11

Drop in sales is primarily contributed by new launches

Sales in Top-9* cities New launch vs Old projects

New Launches (Launch date 6 months)

Old Projects ( Launch date > 6 months)

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015 12

Mumbai and Noida have the most unsold inventory

Unsold Inventory levels in top 9 cities1 (Dec 2014)

Unsold Inventory = 127,191

Unsold Inventory = 45,087

Notes: 1. Noida includes: Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressway

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015 13

~14% of the unsold inventory is > 3 years old

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015 14

Age of unsold inventory in top-9 cities (Dec14)

Notes: 1. Noida includes: Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressway

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015 15

52% of unsold inventory is in affordable (<50 lakhs) category

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015 16

Mumbai and Gurgaon have least share of affordable units

Notes: 1. Noida includes: Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressway

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015 17

Demand in NCR cities continue to be dominated by investors

Notes: 1. Noida includes: Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressway

Source: PropTiger Data Labs Jan 2015 18

Though prices have been stagnant across the cities

Notes: 1. Price weighed on number of units in respective projects in a city