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Activity 02 Individual (Assessed) 10 points

Identifying Sources of Uncertainty
Overview
Based on the information in the Cantik case study materials you have already read, identify and document 10 sources of
uncertainty i.e. causes that you believe could lead to risk events (either upsides or downsides). Typically sources of
uncertainty/causes of risk events are issues or facts, i.e. they have a probability of 1 or almost 1. Sources of uncertainty
represent the current situation, not possible futures that may be triggered by the current situation.
As part of this assignment you are not required to identify either resulting risk events or consequences (effects on objectives).
Please think widely about all aspects of the case and do not focus only on the aspects you are familiar with. You may choose
to use TECOP or another tool to assist you in your identification.

Activity
Using the template provided, please capture your thoughts on the sources of uncertainty. You should document 10
uncertainties; no more and no less.
The assignment will be marked by considering the breadth of your thinking and understanding of the case.

You should aim to complete this activity in around one hour.

Managing Project Risk - Activity 02

Name: Hussain Abdulla Al-Sada
Date: 26/09/2014
Source of Uncertainty
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The limited experince and low cash flow of PartnerCo and Thorne Petroleum This
could be two risks, also it would be nice to know what type of experience is low.

Intergration of Upstream, Midstream & downstream This doesnt make sense as

you have written even though it is a fact.

The additional business contracts required with the PSC's for midstream and
downstream processing of oil and gas after normal separation of oil, gas, and water
What is it about contracts that is a cause? Is it because the contracts havent been
placed yet?

The Local content minimum percentage (50%) spesified by Mylandian government

The market opportunities for hydrocarbon (crude oil and gas) and refined products.
Where are the market opportuntities?

Challenging construction & development of infra structure in onshore area

Environment comittment lacking Is this true?

Behaviour of Shell Operations Manager (key member) what about his behaviour?

Procedural barriers & approval time approval time for what?

10

Relocation of Key mapower, organizational gaps

Work integration ; Coordination among the construction contractors this is two
risks, both of which would need further explanation.

Grading Criteria
The assignment will be marked by considering the depth of your thinking and understanding of the case.
Maximum number of points 10.

Grading criteria and what is being judged

Maximum
points

You have identified 10 sources of uncertainty.

The uncertainties identified demonstrate a wide understanding of the

case and show thinking beyond the T in TECOP.

When the activity is completed, upload to Moodle as per instructions in the activity link on the home page.