Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
2015
INVESTMENTS
HIGHLIGHTS
Local economy
Real GDP growth in the last quarter of the year (0.5% qoq and 2.6% yoy)
was supported by the acceleration of private consumption (+2.4% qoq).
The performance of gross fixed capital formation remained weak in Q4
(-0.8% qoq, 1.4% yoy), while net exports had a negative contribution to
GDP growth rate in Q4 due to a faster dynamics of imports than of exports.
Consumer prices increased by 0.3% mom in February, mainly determined
by dynamics of fuel prices (+1.9% mom when including both the solid and
the liquid fuels) and also seasonal increase of prices for fruits, vegetables
and eggs (+3.1% mom). The annual inflation rate stood at 0.4% yoy in
February and we expect a level close to 0.5% yoy in the following months
(March-May).
NBR expected to end the key-rate cutting cycle (re)initialized in August,
after delivering a last 25 bp cut (to 2%) at the monetary meeting on 31
March.
Global economy
Content
Local Economy
Global Economy
FX Market
Money and Bond
Market
Equity
Commodities
LOCAL ECONOMY
GDP growth in Q4 driven by private consumption
15
10
2.6
-5
-10
-15
-20
08Q4
10Q2
11Q4
13Q2
14Q4
(pp, %)
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
Feb-10
Feb-11
Food
Feb-12
Nonfood
Feb-13
Services
Feb-14
Feb-15
CPI - Total
March 2015
Inflation dynamics in the first two months of the year erased the chances for a negative print of the annual
inflation rate in the following months. Moreover, inflation rate would remain close to 0.5% yoy during MarchMay before entering on an upward trend. In our baseline scenario, the annual inflation rate would end the
year at 2.0% yoy. However, uncertainty with regard to dynamics of inflation is high due to strong sensitivity to
supply side shocks.
Positive news from real sector indicators at the beginning of the year, with the exception of construction
works
In seasonally adjusted terms, retail sales increased by 1.6% mom in the first month of the year, driven by an
important monthly advance of sales of food products (+3.2% mom). In annual terms, retail sales posted an
advance by 6.8% yoy in January 2015, mainly supported by the acceleration of sales of food products (+7.6%
yoy), while sales of non-food products posted an annual dynamics of 4% yoy and sales of fuels showed an
increase of 5.2% yoy. Industrial production increased by 0.9% mom in January, exclusively driven by
performance of the manufacturing sector (2.9% mom). Our in-house seasonally adjusted data shows that
exports of goods went up by 2.1% mom in January when expressed in EUR equivalent, another positive piece
of information regarding the performance of the economy at the beginning of the year. Imports of goods
increased also in January, but at a slower pace (+0.8% mom in euro equivalent according to our in-house
seasonally adjusted data). Construction works fell by 5.4% mom in January, but negative performance came as
a correction of the surge in the last two months of 2014 (+5.4% mom in November and + 7.0% mom in
December).
Short-term indicators
% mom
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Industrial output
-1.2
1.5
0.5
-0.2
0.1
0.9
Manufacturing output
-0.2
1.5
0.5
1.6
-0.9
2.8
0.2
-0.4
0.5
2.3
0.4
1.6
2.6
-3.9
-1.0
1.4
-2.2
3.3
-0.8
4.2
-2.0
1.3
-0.3
2.1
3.1
7.1
-5.9
5.4
7.0
-5.4
-9.9
2.0
-3.3
5.1
-1.7
11.7
Construction output
New passenger cars sales
Unemployment rate (%)
Feb-15
5.27
5.26
5.19
5.10
5.09
5.09
5.10
101.2
99.9
101.5
101.6
101.8
102.3
102.6
-27.5
-29.4
-26.0
-20.9
-18.6
-15.8
-15.8
NBR to deliver the last 25 bp cut of the key interest rate at the monetary meeting on 31 March
Our baseline scenario assumes the NBR would end the key-rate cutting cycle (re)initialized in August at 2%,
after delivering the last 25 bp cut at the monetary policy meeting scheduled for 31 March. Also, the NBR
should narrow the spread between the interest rates for the permanent credit and deposit facilities to 3.5 pp
(from 4 pp at present). In our view, the inflation outlook (i.e. inflation rate forecasted in one year from now) is
the primary factor shaping the central banks decisions on the monetary policy rate path. The sentiment of
investors towards RON assets and the level of inflation rate at the time of the monetary policy decision are
both weighed by the central bank when setting the monetary policy rate, but not as primary factors. The last
inflation forecast of the NBR for end-2015 is at 2.1% yoy, while it is assumed an inflation rate of 2.3% yoy at
the end of Q1 2016. Therefore, we see this forecast as clearly limiting the room of the central bank to reduce
the monetary policy rate to below 2.0%.
March 2015
GLOBAL ECONOMY
US Labor market remained strong
Non-farm payrolls increased by 295K in February - a
level above market expectations of 235K in a
Bloomberg survey. In this context, the cumulated
downward revision of the increase in the two
preceding months (18k) was easily offset. In the last
twelve subsequent months, more than 200k new jobs
were created every month - a notable dynamics,
previously seen in 1994. Furthermore, the
unemployment rate dipped by 0.2 percentage points to
5.5% in February. If the employment continues to grow
even close to the rate of the past three months, in
which in average 288k new jobs have been created, the
Feds full employment target of 5.35% should be
achieved in Q2 2015 and by the end of 2015, Raiffeisen
Research Analysts expect the rate to lower to 4%.
US labour market
US-ISM Indices
March 2015
March 2015
FX MARKET
The EUR/RON exchange rate continued to trade in a narrow range in the last month, with recent visible signs
of the leu appreciation, due to higher flows, probably influenced by US Fed wording (on 18 March) with regard
to the normalization of the monetary policy rate. However, the leu has retreated close to 4.44, a level around
which we expect fluctuating vs. EUR in the coming days. Flows related to transactions in RON T-securities
should remain the main drivers of the leu exchange rate. The anticipated 25bp key rate cut on 31 March
should not have any tangible impact, neither on market interest rates nor on the leu exchange rate. We think
the move is broadly expected by market participants.
Regional exchange rates
EUR/PLN
EUR/HUF
EUR/CZK
EUR/RON
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Nominal appreciation
96
1Y
20.03.2015
3Y
5Y
10Y
23.02.2015
March 2015
EQUITY
Enel announced officially in February that it suspends the sale of the Romanian assets. We remind that
Electrica and Nuclearelectrica were among the bidders. Also regarding Electrica, Fondul Proprietatea
announced that they hope to reach an agreement by the end of 1Q for the sale of its stakes in Electricas
subsidiaries, so further news should be available soon. Fondul Proprietatea called a GSM on April 27 to
approve among others a sixth buy-back program of 891.8 mn shares (8% of its share capital). Most of the SIFs
have announced their 2014 dividends proposals, to be voted during their annual April GSMs. SIF Banat-Crisana
(SIF1) would resume cash distributions with a 2014 DPS of RON 0.1 (DY 7.5%), while SIF Oltenia (SIF5) would
pay RON 0.12 per share, yielding 7.1%. SIF Moldovas (SIF2) management has submitted a DPS proposal of
RON 0.102 (DY 6.5%), combined with a stock dividend (one free share for every share owned), and a buy-back
program for 1% of outstanding shares, which would be distributed to the management and employees. SIF
Transilvania (SIF3) would resume cash dividend payments this year with a DPS of RON 0.0125 (DY 4.7%),
combined with a buy-back program for 1% of total number of shares, in similar conditions to SIF2. We
calculated dividend yields based on closing prices from March 18.
COMMODITIES
Oil market
After the price of Brent had exceeded USD 60 mark
in late-February, the price entered again on a
downward trend and is trading now close to USD
54. Also, the price of WTI decreased by 17% since
the monthly peak at the beginning of March. The
Kuwait Oil Minister, quoted by Bloomberg, said that
OPEC members do not plan to meet in an
extraordinary session earlier than the next one on
the agenda (in June). In February, OPEC oil
production has slightly exceeded the target of 30
million barrels a day, for the ninth month in a row.
Additional export volumes, which could enter the
market already this year, would be difficult to
absorb by a currently oversupplied oil market, even
though the supply/demand situation would be
significantly more balanced in the second half of the
year than it is now. Raiffeisen Research analysts
consider that during the second half of the year the
growth of shale oil production will slow down
significantly, a move that will help the oil price.
Oil price
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
20-Mar-14
20-Jun-14
20-Sep-14
Brent
20-Dec-14
WTI
March 2015
20-Mar-15
Disclaimer
This document was realized by Raiffeisen Bank S.A. for information purposes only. Raiffeisen Bank S.A. believes all the
information to be reliable, but no representations are made as to their accuracy and completeness. This report is
designed exclusively to Premium Banking customers. Any investment decision must be made on the basis of public
information and on their own responsibility and not on the basis of data selected by bank analysts. Raiffeisen Bank SA
does not assume any responsibility for consequences arising from the use of this report. This document is being
furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed (full or in part) to any other
person. Unless otherwise stated, all views (including statements and forecasts) are solely those of Raiffeisen Bank S.A.
and are subject to change without notice. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or
purchase any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract
or commitment whatsoever.
For more details, please contact Raiffeisen Bank SA.
March 2015