The poll surveyed a random sample of 3,143 Alberta residents by

Interactive Voice Response (IVR) on April 29th, 2015.

Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones.
Margin of error +/- 1.85%, 19/20.

NEW GOVERNMENT INEVITABLE

May 1st, 2015. Mainstreet Technologies final election poll of 3,143 Albertans finds the NDP leading in every
region of the province with the PCs in a clear third. The poll carries a margin of error of +/- 1.85%, 19/20.
"To understand where we are at this stage in the election and context for these numbers, we have to look
back at where we started. The unpopularity of the budget cannot be overstated, all the taxes that polls
suggested were the least popular, except for the PST were brought in. Followed by an early election call
which was equally unpopular. Followed by not a single good news announcement. The plan to campaign
on a budget that an overwhelming majority of the population disliked at a time that an overwhelming
majority of the population did not want, has been a disaster for Jim Prentice." said Quito Maggi, president
of Mainstreet Technologies.
"The dynasty in Alberta will come to an end on Tuesday with the election of an NDP government, what
seemed like the unlikeliest outcome, is now the only possible outcome. We know from our previous polling
that over 75% of Albertans wanted a change in government and they will get it. Few Albertans believed
there was a viable alternative to the PCs as a government. While Brian Jean did his very best to prove most
Albertans right during the leaders debate, Rachel Notley demonstrated that she was that viable
alternative."
"The one factor that we had been seeing in our polling has led to the NDP surge in Calgary and across the
rest of Alberta. Wildrose voters had an overwhelming predisposition to vote NDP as their second choice
despite the apparent ideological divide. That "anything but PC effect" will be felt across Alberta on election
day."
Highlights:
- 73% of decided voters in Edmonton will vote NDP
- 35% of decided voters in Calgary back the NDP, followed by Wildrose at 26%, PCs at 24%
- Outside Edmonton and Calgary the NDP lead 39% to 33% over Wildrose, with PCs at 22%
- 47% of Liberal voters will back the NDP if there is no Liberal candidate in their district
- 39% of Alberta Party voters will back the NDP if there is no Alberta Party candidate in their district
- 32% of Albertans believe the PC Party will win the election, 29% the NDP
-30For more information:
David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreettechnologies.ca
Available for interview from Toronto:
Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreettechnologies.ca
Pour les informations en franais:
Steve Pinkus, steve@mainstreettechnologies.ca

Background
Over the past 4 weeks Mainstreet has polled voting intentions and issues across Alberta. In the
months leading up to the election call, we also polled economic and public policy issues. After the
election, we look forward to continuing our polling on important economic and public policy
issues that affect Alberta. Throughout, and going forward, we maintain a high standard for what
Mainstreet believes is appropriate and responsible sample sizes.
Methodology
As with all our polls, this final poll has a large sample size for Alberta. (3143). Our Interactive Voice
Response (IVR) technology was used to survey Albertans to a combination of land lines and
cellular phones on the night of April 29th 2015. We randomly sampled Alberta within each of three
areas, Calgary, Edmonton and Alberta outside of Calgary or Edmonton. The margin of error is +/1.85 19 times out of 20.
Results
The NDP are up across Alberta by 14% compared with our last poll and now have the support of
44% of voters. The Undecided is down by 7% to 14% and each of the PCs, Wildrose, Alberta Party
and Alberta Liberals are down 2% from our previous poll.
The NDP now lead in every region, Outside Calgary and Edmonton by 5%, in Edmonton by a
staggering 59% and in Calgary by 8% and 9% over Wildrose and PCs.
The NDP now also lead in every age category, the highest lead is among voters 18-34 years of age,
where they lead the Wildrose by 25% and PCs by 30%. The lowest lead is among those over age
65 where they lead PCs by just 3%.
The NDP lead most categories of voters from certain to those who might vote. The Alberta
Liberals lead the NDP among voters who are unlikely to vote. Among those certain to vote, the
NDP leads by 17% over the Wildrose Party and 23% over the PCs, with support of 41%. Among
certain and likely decided voters, the NDP leads with 45% to the Wildrose 27% and the PCs 21%.
Progressive/Protest Vote Coalescing
Two equally substantial groups of voters have now coalesced in support of the NDP. First, the
progressive centre and centre left voters who were previously divided between the Alberta
Party, the Alberta Liberals, the NDP and the PCs have all moved in large numbers to the NDP. Also,
the anybody but PC votes have decided post debate that the NDP is the best option to defeat
the PCs. A base of ideological Wildrose supporters remain, but their support has remained
stagnant for the majority of the campaign, despite leading. The momentum effect of NDP support
that began in Edmonton, is now felt across all regions.

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA NDP
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED
BREAKDOWNS

18%
23%
4%
38%
2%
14%

-2%
-2%
-2%
+14%
-2%
-7%

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA NDP
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64

14%
16%
21%
19%
23% 26%
5%
5%
4%
44% 38% 36%
2%
3%
2%
17%
15%
11%
237
787
1121

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE PARTY
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA NDP
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

EDMONTON
14%
7%
3%
66%
1%
9%
1040

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA NDP
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED

CERTAIN
18%
24%
4%
41%
2%
11%

65+
28%
24%
4%
31%
2%
11%
998

CALGARY
21%
22%
9%
30%
4%
14%
1061

LIKELY
20%
26%
3%
30%
1%
20%

MIGHT
20%
3%
13%
22%
5%
38%

Male
19%
26%
4%
38%
2%
11%
1391

Female
18%
19%
5%
39%
3%
17%
1752

REST OF AB
18%
28%
3%
33%
2%
16%
1042
UNLIKELY
7%
1%
17%
15%
6%
54%

Alberta Final

RECAP - MARCH 29th TO APRIL 29th

40

30

20

10

0
29-Mar

07-Apr

13-Apr

20-Apr

23-Apr

29-Apr

Progressive Conservatives Wildrose Alberta Liberals

Alberta NDP Alberta Party Undecided

REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS

Alberta

PC 18%
Wildrose 23%
Alberta Liberal 4%
Alberta NDP 38%
Alberta Party 2%
Undecided 14%

Edmonton

PC 14%
Wildrose 7%
Alberta Liberal 3%
Alberta NDP 66%
Alberta Party 1%
Undecided 9%

Calgary

PC
Wildrose
Alberta Liberal
Alberta NDP
Alberta Party
Undecided

21%
22%
9%
30%
4%

14%

PC 18%
Wildrose 28%
Alberta Liberal 3%
Rest of Alberta
Alberta NDP 33%
Alberta Party 2%
Undecided 16%

DECIDED ONLY

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE PARTY
ALBERTA LIBERAL PARTY
ALBERTA NDP
ALBERTA PARTY

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA NDP
ALBERTA PARTY

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA NDP
ALBERTA PARTY

EDMONTON
16%
7%
3%
73%
1%

21% -5%
26% -6%
5% -3%
44% +13%
3% -1%

CALGARY
24%
26%
10%
35%
5%

CERTAIN/LIKELY
21%
27%
4%
45%
3%

REST OF AB
22%
33%
4%
39%
3%

MIGHT/UNLIKELY
23%
3%
29%
35%
10%

Alberta Final Decided

DECIDED ONLY

50

40

30

20

10

0
29-Mar

07-Apr

13-Apr

20-Apr

23-Apr

29-Apr

Progressive Conservatives Wildrose Alberta Liberals

Alberta NDP Alberta Party

DECIDED ONLY

Alberta

Edmonton

PC
Wildrose
Alberta Liberal
Alberta NDP
Alberta Party

21%
26%
5%

44%

3%

PC 16%
Wildrose 7%
Alberta Liberal 3%
Alberta NDP 73%
Alberta Party 1%
PC
Wildrose
Alberta Liberal
Alberta NDP
Alberta Party

24%

PC
Wildrose
Rest of Alberta Alberta Liberal
Alberta NDP
Alberta Party

22%

Calgary

26%
10%
35%
5%

33%

4%
39%

3%
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

80

WHICH PARTY ARE YOU LEANING TOWARDS? [UNDECIDED ONLY]

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA NDP
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED

BREAKDOWNS

10%
15%
7%
11%
5%
52%

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA NDP
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

8%
10%
12% 11%
23%
8%
13% 12%
11%
6%
4%
2%
6%
19%
11% 11%
3%
6%
6%
4%
49% 52% 53% 60%

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE PARTY
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA NDP
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED

EDMONTON
4%
9%
3%
20%
8%
56%

CALGARY
15%
15%
6%
11%
7%
46%

Male
8%
20%
10%
16%
6%
39%

Female
11%
12%
5%
8%
4%
60%

REST OF AB
9%
17%
8%
10%
3%
53%

Undecided Question 3

WHICH PARTY ARE YOU LEANING TOWARDS? [UNDECIDED ONLY]

Alberta

Edmonton

Calgary

PC
Wildrose
Alberta Liberal
Alberta NDP
Alberta Party
Undecided

10%

PC
Wildrose
Alberta Liberal
Alberta NDP
Alberta Party
Undecided

4%

PC
Wildrose
Alberta Liberal
Alberta NDP
Alberta Party
Undecided

15%

PC
Wildrose
Alberta Liberal
Rest of Alberta
Alberta NDP
Alberta Party
Undecided

15%
7%
11%
5%
52%

9%

3%
20%
8%
56%

15%
6%
11%
7%
46%

9%
17%
8%
10%

3%
53%

10

20

30

40

50

The Alberta Liberal Party is running candidates in 56 of the 87 electoral districts

in the election. Which Party would you support if there was no Liberal candidate
in your district?
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE
ALBERTA NDP
UNDECIDED
WOULD NOT VOTE

Question 4 Liberals Only

9%

6%
17%
47%
21%
9%

6%

17%
21%

47%

PC Wildrose Alberta NDP Undecided Would Not Vote

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE
ALBERTA NDP
UNDECIDED
WOULD NOT VOTE

EDMONTON
21%
3%
55%
15%
6%

CALGARY
8%
19%
44%
18%
11%

REST OF AB
1%
19%
47%
25%
8%

The Alberta Party is only running candidates in 35 of the 87 electoral districts in

the election. Which Party would you support if there was no Alberta Party
Candidate in your district?
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE
ALBERTA NDP
UNDECIDED
WOULD NOT VOTE

2%
26%
39%
14%
19%

Question 5 Alberta Party Only

2%
19%
26%

14%

39%

PC Wildrose Alberta NDP

Undecided Would Not Vote

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before Election Day? [NDP/WILDROSE/PC]

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
80% STRONG
15% MIGHT CHANGE MIND
5% DONT KNOW

WILDROSE PARTY
71% STRONG
21% MIGHT CHANGE MIND
8% DONT KNOW

ALBERTA NDP
71% STRONG
20% MIGHT CHANGE MIND
9% DONT KNOW

And who would be your second choice among the following options?
[MIGHT CHANGE MIND/DONT KNOW ONLY]

Question 7: Party v Party

Wildrose

PC 46
NDP 23
Liberal 6
Undecided 24

NDP

PC 20
Wildrose 27
Liberal 26
Undecided 26

PC

Wildrose 42
NDP 26
Liberal 10
Undecided 21
0

10

20

30

40

VOTING INTENTION vs SECOND CHOICE

VOTING INTENTION
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE
ALBERTA NDP

PC
x
46%
20%

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE
ALBERTA NDP
ALBERTA LIBERAL
UNDECIDED

EDMONTON
24%
28%
20%
18%
10%

WR
42%
x
27%

NDP
26%
23%
x

CALGARY
28%
17%
18%
21%
15%

LIB
10%
6%
26%

UD
21%
24%
26%

REST OF AB
24%
27%
24%
13%
13%

Question 7: By Region

And who would be your second choice among the following options?
[MIGHT CHANGE MIND/DONT KNOW ONLY]

PC
Wildrose
NDP
Liberal
Undecided

26%

PC
Wildrose
NDP
Liberal
Undecided

26%

PC
Wildrose
NDP
Liberal
Undecided

33%

PC
Wildrose
Rest of Alberta
NDP
Liberal
Undecided

22%

Alberta

Edmonton

Calgary

25%
20%
17%
12%

25%
18%
25%
6%

16%
16%
22%
12%

29%
23%
13%
14%

10

15

20

25

30

And who do you think will win the Election on May 5th?

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA NDP
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED
BREAKDOWNS

32%
19%
3%
29%
1%
16%

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA NDP
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED

18-34 35-49 50-64

31%
33% 33%
20%
17%
19%
4%
3%
3%
28%
31%
29%
1%
1%
1%
16%
14%
16%

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE PARTY
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA NDP
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED

EDMONTON
30%
6%
3%
48%
1%
13%

WHO WILL WIN?

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE PARTY
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA NDP
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED

PC
91%
21%
17%
18%
22%
9%

WR
2%
62%
8%
6%
16%
10%

65+
33%
20%
3%
28%
1%
15%

CALGARY
34%
21%
5%
23%
2%
15%

NDP
1%
5%
26%
65%
25%
11%

Male
32%
20%
3%
30%
1%
13%

Female
33%
18%
3%
28%
1%
18%

REST OF AB
32%
22%
3%
26%
1%
16%

LIB
0%
1%
39%
2%
3%
3%

AB
1%
0%
4%
0%
13%
1%

UD
6%
11%
5%
10%
21%
55%

And who do you think will win the Election on May 5th?

Question 8: May 5th Election win

Alberta

PC 32%
Wildrose 19%
Alberta Liberal 3%
Alberta NDP 29%
Alberta Party 1%
Undecided 16%

Edmonton

PC 30%
Wildrose 6%
Alberta Liberal 3%
Alberta NDP 48%
Alberta Party 1%
Undecided 13%

Calgary

PC
Wildrose
Alberta Liberal
Alberta NDP
Alberta Party
Undecided

34%
21%
5%
23%

2%
15%

PC 32%
Wildrose 22%
Alberta Liberal 3%
Rest of Alberta
Alberta NDP 26%
Alberta Party 1%
Undecided 16%
0

10

20

30

40

And who do you think will win the Election on May 5th?

Question 8: Party v Party

PC

PC
Wildrose
NDP
Liberal
Alberta
Undecided

91%

2%
1%
0%
1%
6%

PC 21%
Wildrose 62%
NDP 5%
Wildrose
Liberal 1%
Alberta 0%
Undecided 11%

NDP

PC 18%
Wildrose 6%
NDP 65%
Liberal 2%
Alberta 0%
Undecided 10%

PC
Wildrose
NDP
Liberal
Liberal
Alberta
Undecided

17%

PC
Wildrose
NDP
Alberta
Liberal
Alberta
Undecided

22%

8%
26%
39%

4%
5%

16%
25%

3%
13%
21%

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

100

Quito Maggi, President

quito@mainstreettechnologies.ca
Learn more about what we do - and how we can work together.
www.mainstreettechnologies.ca

SCRIPT

Q1: How likely are you to vote in the provincial Election?

Absolutely certain to vote or already voted
Likely to vote
Might vote
Unlikely to vote
Not eligible to vote [Thank-you message]
Q2: And if a provincial election were held today, which party would you support?
Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice
Wildrose Party led by Brian Jean
Liberal Party led by David Swann
NDP led by Rachel Notley
Alberta Party led by Greg Clark
Undecided
Q3: Which Party are you leaning toward voting for? [Selected Undecided Q2]
Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice
Wildrose Party led by Brian Jean
Liberal Party led by David Swann
NDP led by Rachel Notley
Undecided
Q4: The Alberta Liberal Party is only running candidates in 56 of the 87 electoral districts in the
election. If there is no Liberal candidate in your district who would you support among the following
options? [Selected Liberal Q2]
Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice
Wildrose Party led by Brian Jean
NDP led by Rachel Notley
Undecided
Would not vote for any party other than the Alberta Liberal Party
Q5:The Alberta Party is only running candidates in 35 of the 87 electoral districts in the election. Which
Party would you support if there was no Alberta Party Candidate in your district?
Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice
Wildrose Party led by Brian Jean
NDP led by Rachel Notley
Undecided
Would not vote for any party other than the Alberta Party

SCRIPT

Q6: Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change
your mind before Election Day? [If they named a party in Q2]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know
Q7: And who would be your second choice among the following options? [Selected Might/Dont Know
Q5]
Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice
Wildrose Party led by Brian Jean
NDP led by Rachel Notley
Liberal Party led by David Swann
Undecided
Q8: And who do you think will win the Election on May 5th?
Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice
Wildrose Party led by Brian Jean
Liberal Party led by David Swann
NDP led by Rachel Notley
Alberta Party led by Greg Clark
Undecided