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THEORETICAL DISTRIBUTION

(STATISTICS)

by :
DR. T.K. JAIN
AFTERSCHO☺OL
centre for social entrepreneurship
sivakamu veterinary hospital road
bikaner 334001 rajasthan, india
FOR – PGPSE PARTICIPANTS
mobile : 91+9414430763

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WHAT IS IT?
When we can allocate probability for different
frequency points/ class intervals, out of the
total frequency, it is called theoretical
distribution. It exists only in theory. The
observed (actual) frequency distribution may
be similar to it. This helps us in prediction,
projections, and in decision making. For
example: we may say that out of 1000 toss of
coins, we will get 500 heads (actually, it may
not be 500).
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Uses of theoretical distribution

It is used in following purpose :


statistical analysis
prediction of future -
prediction of the data on the basis of the the
distribution
data analysis

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Characteristics

Theoretical distribution contains all the


characteristics of population – as it is based on
population data. So it has all the characteristics
of population parameters

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Types of distribution

There are two types of distributions :


discreet – individual values for example :
1,2,3,4
continuous – continuous values for example : 1
to 2, 2 to 3, 3 to 4 etc.

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Discrete distributions

Important ones are :


binomial
poisson

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Continuous distributions

Important ones are :


1. normal
2. chi-square
3. student (or T distribution)
4. F distribution

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Binomial distribution
When only two outcomes are possible,
binomial distribution is prepared – example –
throw of coins – (head or tail)
trials are independent
P = probability of success
Q= probability of failure
finite number of trials – with exclusive and
exhaustive outcomes
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Properties of binomial distribution

Mean = N*P
example : throw coin 100 times
N=100, P=.5, thus mean is 100*.5 = 50
variance =N*p*q
for coins : 100*.5*.5 = 25
standard distribution = sqrt(25) = 5

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Ex: a coin is tossed 8 times, what
is the probability of getting 4
heads?
Formula of probability mass function of
bionmial distribution : Ncr*p^r*q^(n-r)
N=8, P=.5, Q=.5, r=4
8C4*(.5)^4*(.5)^4
=105/512

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Ex: a coin is tossed 8 times, what
is the probability of getting at
least 4 heads?
Formula of probability mass function of
bionmial distribution : Ncr*p^r*q^(n-r)
N=8, P=.5, Q=.5, r=4,5,6,7,8
when r is 4, =8C4*(.5)^4*(.5)^4
when r is 5, =8C4*(.5)^5*(.5)^3
so answer : = 837/1024

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What is the probability of getting
2 sundays out of 15 days selected
at random?

N = 15, R = 2, P = 1/7, because only 1 Sunday


in a week Q = 6/7 (all other days )
=15C2*(1/7)^2*(6/7)^13

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Poisson distribution
We use it when the possibility of success is in a
very small time interval is given. There is very
little possibilty of getting 2 successes. It is
generally used for situations like queue etc.
Formula : e^kt*(kt)^x / x!
Where e=2.71828 k = chance of success
(between 0 to 1)
t = time and x is the value that we want to test.
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Find the mean and standard deviation of X
where X is poisson variate satisfying the
conditions P(x=2) = P (x=3) Options : mean
=3,4,5 standard deviations : sqrt (2), sqrt (3), 2
e^kt*(kt)^x / x!
2.71828^kt*(kt)^3 / 3! = 2.71828^kt*(kt)^2/2!
Kt^3/6 = kt^2/2
kt^3 = kt^2*3
thus kt = mean = 3
standard deviation = square root of mean (in poisson
distribution) so standard deviation is sqrt(3)

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Between 5 to 6 PM the average number of
phone clls per minute is 4. what is the
probability that there is no phone call
during a minute?

e^kt*(kt)^x / x!
E = 2.71828, t = 1 minute, k = 4, x = 0 (no
phone call)
solving we get : = .018 answer

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2% Cars are defective. What is the
probability that out of 150 cars,
there is exactly one defective car?

E =2.71828, KT = 2% of 150 = 3
x = 1.
solving the formula we get : .15 answer

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Normal distribution

Developed by Karl Gauss


perfectly symmetrical, mean=mode=median
values = equally divided from mean
+ or – one sigma = .68
+ or – 2 sigma = .9546
+ or – 3 sigma = .9973 _

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Out of 500 workers mean and standard
deviation of wages are 500 and 48
respectively. What is the number of
workers with more than 600 as wages.

Here 500 is mid point, so it represents .5


we are interested in 600, which is more than 500
600 – 500 / 48 = 100/48 = 2.083
now find the value 2.083 in the table of normal distribution,
which is .4812 add .5 to it : .9812,
so answer : 1 - .9812 = .0188 or 1.8% or 9 workers. Answer.

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What is the standard deviation of
the number of recoveries among
48 patients, the probability of
recovering is .75? Options :
36,81,9,3
Formula : N*P*Q
= 48*.75*.25 = 9 answer

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The incidence of occupational disease in an
industry is such that the workman have a 10%
chance of suffering from it. What is the
probability that out of 5 workmen 3 will
contract the disease?

Formula : NCR*P^r*Q^(n-r)
5C3*(.1)^3*(.9)^2
10*.001*.81
= .0081 answer

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What is the probability of success of the
binomial distribution satisfying the
following condition: 4P(X=4) = P(X=2)
and having other parameter as 6? options :
.25, .33, .4, .5
Here N = 6 (as this is the only parameter missing).
4* 6C4(p)^4*(q)^2 = 6C2*(p)^2*(q)^4
try with options, .33 gives answer so P = .33

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