Chapter 1: Interpretations of Probability

Chance experiment: a process with uncertainty about

resulted outcomes, e.g. drawing a card from a wellshuffled deck
Event: collection of possible outcomes from a chance
experiment, e.g. event where card drawn is an Ace

Long-run relative frequency

For an event to have P=1/4, we expect it to arise one-quarter
of the time. It doesnt necessarily occur once in every block of
4 repetitions. Long-run frequency interpretations is limited to
repeated conditions
HHHHHHHT & HTTHHTTHT just as likely to occur

Degrees of Belief

p
1p
odds against =
1p
p

E.g. given event A and

P( B)
P ( A B ) =P ( A )

Dutch Book A set of odds and bets which guarantees

a profit (or loss) regardless of the outcomes of the
gamble. Associated with incoherent probabilities and
appropriate arrangement of bets

Prosecutors fallacy

P ( A|B ) P(B A)

Multiplication Rule,

P ( A B ) =P ( B| A ) P ( A )

Event A and A
sample space

covers entire

Whenever AB occurs, A (or B)

must occur
The composition of two events is
always less probable than each
individual event
Events A and B are mutually
exclusive if they dont intercept
Mutually
ExclusiveIndependent unless
probability of one is 0

P ( A )+ P ( A )=1
P ( AB ) P ( A )
P ( AB ) P ( B )
P ( A B ) =0
If A B=
P ( A B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )

Positively associated

P ( A|B )=

P ( B| A ) P ( A )
P ( B| A ) P ( A )+ P ( B| A C ) P( A C )

Has disease
Sensitivity

No disease
Type I error (false
+ve)
Specificity

Chapter 4: Computing Probabilities

If first three equations are held, A, B, and, C are pairwise

P ( A ) 0, P ( B ) 0

Bayes
Theorem

Negativ
Type II error (false
e
ve)
Better to have high sensitivity than high specificity,
safe than sorry

is 2 to 1

Chapter 2 + 3: The Rule Book + Conditional

Probability

i=1

Positive

independent
Probability of A given B

P ( B ) = P ( B| A i ) P( A i)

Specificity VS Sensitivity

P(C)
P ( A C )=P( A)

P (B) P(C)
P ( A B C )=P( A)

, odds in favour of A

P ( B ) =P ( B A ) + P ( B A C )
P ( B| A ) P ( A ) + P ( B| A C ) P ( A C )

P ( A|B )=P ( A )

P (C)
P ( B C )=P( B)

Subjective probability OR judgmental probability

2
P ( A )=
3

P ( AB c ) =P ( A ) P( Bc )

Events A, B, and, C are mutually independent IF

Obtaining 6 when rolling a die

Obtaining head when tossing a coin

oddsfavour=

When events A and B are

independent,
so are their complements

Law of Total
Probability

P ( B| A )=P( B)

Interpretations of Probabilities:
Propensities / Classical
e.g
.

P ( AB )=P ( A ) P ( B )

P ( A|B )=

P ( A B)
P(B)

P ( A|B ) P(B)

Laplace experiments:
outcome equally likely

experiments

each

Factorial
Ways of arrangement
Permutati
Order MATTERS
on
Combinati Order doesnt matter
on
Set Identities
Associative
( A B ) C= A ( B C )
Laws

( A B ) C= A (B C )

Negatively associated

Distributive
P ( A|B )> P ( A ) P ( B| A ) > P(B)
P ( A|B )< P ( A ) P ( B| A ) < P(B)
Laws

Inclusion-Exclusion
Formula

P ( A B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )P ( A B )

If events mutually
exclusive
If events are
independent

P ( A B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )

Absorption
Laws

P ( A B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )P ( A ) P (B)

( A B ) C=( A C ) ( B C )
( A B) C=( A C)( B C)
A ( A B)= A
A ( A B)= A

DeMorgans
Laws

( A B)c = A c Bc

P ( A )+ P ( B ) + P ( C )P ( A B )P ( A C )P ( B C )+ P ( A B C)

( A B)c = A c Bc

P ( A B C )

where

Set Difference
Laws
Game of Craps

1
1
1
P ( 1 match )= 4 4
++ 4
1 4 2 4 3
4 4 3 2 1

AB=A B c
5

() ()

1
0

1
1

1
2

Let

()

1 1
1
+
2! 3 ! 4 !

the probability that all six sides show up?

6 ! 7
2
P ( all sides show up )=
7
6

()

Birthday Problem
be the no. of pairs,
n

P ( 1 match )= (1 )

n1

1
n!

P ( distinct birthdaysn )=

Matching Problem
4 vials of blood & 4 name samples, find P of at least
one right match

Chance
Roll a die 6 times, what is the probability that all six
sides show up?

P ( all sides show up )=

6!
66

Roll a die 7 times, what is

365 P n
365n

Inverse Birthday Problem

n people different
364 n
P ( you ) =
365

( )

365 364 ( 365n+1 )

36 5 n