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by Eduardo Petazze
29/04/15
In 1Q2015 US GDP. grew + 3.0% YoY (+ 0.25% QoQ, annualized), in a context of price deflation respect 4th. quarter of 2014.
For 2015 a growth of 2.6% is estimated (from + 2.4% in 2014), driven by the manufacturing industry and the sectors of information, and professional and
business services. The mining sector (including oil and gas), with sharp slowdown, but still maintaining positive GDP contribution.
The purpose of this working paper is to estimate the possible evolution of the value added by economic sector of the United States of America.
The latest press releases from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, are:
Gross Domestic Product by Industry - 4th quarter and annual 2014 pdf, 13 pages
GDP, expenditure approach 1st. Quarter 2015 pdf, 17 pages
Summary
,
Price index
Inflation Constant
2009=100
91.99
3.22% 14,234.2
94.81
3.07% 14,613.8
97.34
2.66% 14,873.7
99.25
1.96% 14,830.4
100.00
0.76% 14,418.7
101.22
1.22% 14,783.8
103.31
2.06% 15,020.6
105.17
1.80% 15,369.2
106.73
1.49% 15,710.3
108.29
1.46% 16,085.6
109.26
0.90% 16,499.8
110.33
0.97% 16,937.6
YoY
3.34%
2.67%
1.78%
-0.29%
-2.78%
2.53%
1.60%
2.32%
2.22%
2.39%
2.57%
2.65%
2013q1
2013q2
2013q3
2013q4
2014q1
2014q2
2014q3
2014q4
2015q1
2015q2
2015q3
2015q4
QoQ,
SAAR
2.74%
1.77%
4.52%
3.50%
-2.11%
4.59%
4.97%
2.22%
0.25%
2.66%
4.05%
3.18%
YoY
1.72%
1.76%
2.26%
3.13%
1.89%
2.59%
2.70%
2.38%
2.99%
2.51%
2.29%
2.53%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
14,418.8 14,783.8 15,020.6 15,369.2 15,710.3 16,085.6 16,499.8 16,937.6
12,353.0 12,650.2 12,871.8 13,185.9 13,482.8 13,829.7 14,241.6 14,649.0
137.7
140.3
134.1
129.5
145.1
134.6
134.4
132.2
290.3
272.7
290.1
319.5
332.7
356.6
364.2
374.0
250.8
274.4
277.9
279.2
281.9
281.7
287.8
294.8
577.3
551.6
548.7
570.9
581.6
577.8
578.7
577.1
1,726.7 1,818.2 1,823.3 1,836.8 1,862.6 1,924.3 2,000.8 2,066.0
874.3
976.1 1,037.6 1,071.1 1,089.3 1,116.8 1,150.9 1,186.0
852.4
843.8
793.4
777.9
786.2
819.5
849.9
880.0
822.8
848.3
866.0
893.6
907.6
930.4
959.8
990.2
842.1
862.2
867.5
881.8
902.8
930.5
955.9
982.5
398.8
421.3
436.5
437.5
440.5
446.8
454.2
460.9
705.3
735.1
736.1
748.5
781.5
808.1
842.7
875.9
2,874.0 2,925.5 2,986.1 3,066.6 3,147.7 3,198.1 3,270.4 3,343.1
1,661.1 1,718.1 1,782.9 1,861.3 1,895.0 1,988.0 2,079.8 2,176.3
1,214.0 1,220.5 1,239.8 1,257.3 1,281.3 1,312.2 1,351.1 1,390.7
522.3
541.3
562.5
574.7
586.1
602.2
618.8
636.2
329.5
323.9
322.7
329.1
331.4
337.2
343.1
349.4
2,065.8 2,079.8 2,071.7 2,062.3 2,049.4 2,042.8 2,040.9 2,038.8
-0.1
53.8
77.1
121.0
178.1
213.2
217.4
249.8
2009
-2.78%
-3.19%
12.85%
14.21%
-6.99%
-12.82%
-7.62%
-14.72%
0.98%
-12.78%
-2.80%
-8.09%
-3.65%
4.02%
-6.57%
2.21%
-6.51%
-5.16%
0.55%
2010
2.53%
2.41%
1.87%
-6.08%
9.42%
-4.46%
5.30%
11.64%
-1.01%
3.10%
2.38%
5.65%
4.23%
1.79%
3.43%
0.54%
3.63%
-1.70%
0.68%
2011
1.60%
1.75%
-4.44%
6.40%
1.26%
-0.53%
0.28%
6.30%
-5.98%
2.09%
0.62%
3.60%
0.14%
2.07%
3.77%
1.58%
3.93%
-0.39%
-0.39%
2012
2.32%
2.44%
-3.39%
10.14%
0.48%
4.05%
0.74%
3.23%
-1.95%
3.19%
1.65%
0.23%
1.69%
2.70%
4.40%
1.42%
2.17%
1.98%
-0.45%
2013
2.22%
2.25%
12.01%
4.12%
0.96%
1.88%
1.40%
1.70%
1.07%
1.56%
2.38%
0.69%
4.41%
2.65%
1.81%
1.90%
1.97%
0.70%
-0.63%
2014
2.39%
2.57%
-7.24%
7.20%
-0.08%
-0.66%
3.31%
2.52%
4.23%
2.52%
3.06%
1.42%
3.40%
1.60%
4.91%
2.42%
2.76%
1.76%
-0.32%
2015
2.57%
2.98%
-0.13%
2.12%
2.17%
0.16%
3.98%
3.06%
3.72%
3.17%
2.74%
1.67%
4.29%
2.26%
4.61%
2.96%
2.76%
1.75%
-0.09%
2016
2.65%
2.86%
-1.64%
2.69%
2.42%
-0.28%
3.26%
3.05%
3.54%
3.17%
2.77%
1.48%
3.94%
2.22%
4.64%
2.93%
2.80%
1.84%
-0.10%
2014
2015
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
15,831.7 16,010.4 16,205.6 16,294.7 16,304.8 16,412.2 16,575.9 16,706.3
13,576.2 13,746.3 13,957.8 14,038.3 14,070.8 14,155.0 14,313.9 14,426.5
129.0
133.4
135.8
140.0
134.2
133.4
134.0
135.9
336.1
345.4
365.6
379.4
358.8
358.2
367.8
371.9
267.7
278.5
290.4
290.0
282.8
283.4
290.6
294.3
570.8
576.6
579.9
583.7
579.7
578.4
577.3
579.2
1,894.3 1,925.6 1,928.0 1,949.3 1,972.7 1,994.6 2,009.4 2,026.6
1,091.2 1,112.4 1,131.3 1,132.2 1,132.9 1,143.4 1,159.6 1,167.8
813.7
824.4
810.3
829.4
839.8
851.2
849.8
858.8
908.8
923.2
939.5
950.0
947.3
952.8
964.2
975.0
917.4
933.6
936.1
934.7
943.3
954.4
961.5
964.5
444.3
444.3
451.5
446.9
450.4
452.4
457.3
456.7
795.9
801.7
814.3
820.3
831.5
836.7
847.1
855.4
3,147.3 3,168.4 3,246.1 3,230.6 3,238.7 3,244.9 3,291.2 3,306.9
1,942.2 1,978.3 2,003.8 2,027.8 2,039.7 2,065.2 2,093.6 2,120.5
1,296.6 1,305.5 1,317.9 1,328.9 1,337.8 1,344.2 1,355.7 1,366.5
594.0
598.2
605.8
610.9
613.0
615.3
620.2
626.8
334.0
333.8
339.8
341.1
340.9
341.1
344.0
346.3
2,045.7 2,041.6 2,043.0 2,040.8 2,042.3 2,040.1 2,040.9 2,040.3
2014
2015
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
15,831.7 16,010.4 16,205.6 16,294.7 16,304.8 16,412.2 16,575.9 16,706.3
10,844.3 10,912.6 10,999.5 11,119.6 11,173.1 11,193.7 11,235.7 11,383.3
3,678.3 3,731.6 3,774.5 3,819.0 3,821.0 3,828.3 3,853.7 3,918.0
1,355.0 1,400.4 1,431.5 1,453.3 1,457.4 1,488.3 1,513.7 1,550.0
385.7
402.9
413.7
417.6
414.5
424.6
435.3
442.8
312.7
322.3
327.1
332.5
335.2
340.6
345.9
351.4
468.3
483.1
501.0
512.4
517.5
526.4
539.9
552.4
198.1
201.5
200.8
203.4
204.6
196.6
192.6
203.4
2,341.9 2,354.6 2,369.4 2,393.4 2,391.9 2,340.0 2,340.0 2,368.0
811.9
809.2
809.0
808.3
803.2
805.9
806.8
806.6
338.3
342.9
343.9
351.8
349.2
349.2
349.9
354.2
274.4
272.1
272.7
278.7
282.5
280.1
279.4
282.1
926.8
941.7
955.6
965.9
968.0
904.8
904.0
925.1
7,165.4 7,181.4 7,225.9 7,301.7 7,352.0 7,365.3 7,382.0 7,465.3
6,857.1 6,870.3 6,908.9 6,987.2 7,046.0 7,051.7 7,062.1 7,143.7
1,996.0 1,979.5 1,970.9 1,980.5 2,004.2 2,003.0 1,998.0 1,999.9
1,798.4 1,815.9 1,836.6 1,871.9 1,896.9 1,893.8 1,903.6 1,927.2
311.4
314.3
316.3
318.9
321.6
323.2
325.0
327.3
406.2
404.4
405.1
408.7
408.6
408.5
408.6
410.3
661.5
670.1
678.2
689.8
692.5
694.5
699.8
708.6
746.2
751.2
764.1
770.6
773.9
778.9
788.7
797.2
937.3
934.5
936.7
946.0
947.9
949.8
938.4
973.2
309.1
312.1
318.3
315.5
306.5
313.6
319.9
321.7
1,159.4 1,172.7 1,187.4 1,210.2 1,214.7 1,215.4 1,223.6 1,239.7
851.3
861.6
870.3
895.4
908.3
901.8
903.7
918.1
2,588.2 2,703.7 2,750.8 2,776.1 2,790.1 2,925.8 2,977.1 2,969.1
2,536.1 2,594.5 2,643.3 2,672.8 2,656.2 2,705.4 2,752.8 2,791.2
2,051.5 2,099.6 2,144.8 2,169.8 2,151.1 2,191.8 2,234.6 2,269.1
441.9
455.2
460.6
467.2
437.6
455.8
468.0
477.6
974.8 1,001.1 1,027.6 1,029.2 1,029.4 1,048.9 1,072.3 1,085.2
298.1
316.2
310.6
325.0
318.2
324.1
324.3
331.7
80.5
85.4
87.3
87.4
80.5
82.1
83.8
84.6
217.6
230.8
223.3
237.6
237.7
241.9
240.5
247.1
209.0
222.0
235.9
226.2
221.6
232.4
245.2
246.9
247.8
249.6
269.1
265.8
280.3
281.2
291.9
296.0
223.6
217.6
215.4
217.1
214.1
211.2
211.0
210.6
636.8
645.4
659.2
675.5
688.3
687.0
694.3
706.3
300.0
303.2
309.7
313.5
317.9
318.1
321.6
325.5
258.2
263.2
269.9
280.8
289.1
288.2
291.5
299.0
78.8
79.1
79.6
80.6
80.4
80.8
81.2
81.9
485.3
495.6
499.6
504.3
505.9
513.6
518.3
522.1
35.2
84.8
82.2
80.0
110.3
220.4
224.3
178.0
2.2
4.8
8.3
6.8
5.9
7.1
9.4
9.4
33.3
80.7
73.7
73.3
105.5
213.3
214.9
168.6
-447.2
-460.4
-431.4
-471.4
-522.1
-611.8
-589.5
-600.5
2,026.9 2,080.7 2,104.0 2,127.1 2,088.0 2,182.1 2,193.1 2,187.9
1,388.1 1,435.4 1,461.6 1,470.4 1,418.9 1,517.8 1,532.4 1,514.3
638.4
644.7
641.6
656.0
667.6
663.5
659.7
672.8
2,474.1 2,541.1 2,535.3 2,598.5 2,610.2 2,793.8 2,782.6 2,788.4
2,017.7 2,077.8 2,071.0 2,123.0 2,127.6 2,308.4 2,296.7 2,290.0
456.3
462.5
463.7
474.9
482.2
484.7
485.3
497.7
2,868.5 2,880.6 2,911.9 2,897.9 2,891.8 2,875.8 2,886.7 2,886.7
1,117.4 1,114.9 1,141.6 1,120.1 1,120.9 1,100.0 1,104.7 1,097.9
693.9
695.4
721.7
698.7
697.4
683.4
691.0
684.4
562.3
559.5
586.7
562.8
563.7
554.7
564.9
558.8
131.1
135.5
134.4
135.5
133.3
128.7
126.1
125.6
423.4
419.4
419.8
421.3
423.3
416.6
413.7
413.5
317.7
314.7
315.4
315.6
316.8
313.2
311.9
311.6
105.5
104.5
104.2
105.6
106.4
103.4
101.8
101.8
1,750.2 1,764.7 1,769.5 1,776.6 1,769.8 1,775.7 1,782.0 1,788.9
1,454.1 1,458.4 1,461.7 1,465.5 1,468.1 1,472.8 1,476.9 1,480.7
295.2
305.4
307.0
310.2
300.9
302.9
305.1
308.2
-45.6
-50.7
-53.1
-60.6
-63.3
28.8
65.9
67.6