UBS Investment Research

13 January 2010

European Telecoms Valuation

European Telecoms Team

Laura Janssens, Analyst +44-20-7568 2312
Nick Lyall, Analyst +44-20-7568 6332
Argiro Papadopoulou, Analyst +44-20-2567 6190
Keval Khiroya, Analyst +44-207568 6005
Violeta Katzova, Analyst +44-20-7568 3264
Marcus Baeumer, Analyst +49 69 1369 8244
Bosco Ojeda, Analyst +34-91-436 9078
Alex Wright, Analyst +44 20 7568 3240
Zoltan Palfi, Analyst +44 20 7567 1682

This material was prepared by UBS Limited

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European Incumbents - (1) Valuation

EV/EBITDA 2008-11E Current Target % Mkt Cap Absolute performance** Relative to DJS Telecoms
Price 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* Price Price diff Rating loc. bn €bn $bn Freefloat 1m 2m 3m 12m YTD 1m 2m 3m 12m YTD
Belgacom € 26.01 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.8 -2.4% 26.0 25.0 -3.9% Neutral € 8.4 8.4 12.2 42% 4.2 -1.6 -2.6 -2.0 -4.83 +5.4 -1.1 -6.1 -9.1 -14.2
BT Group £ 1.46 8.3 5.5 5.4 5.4 13.3% 1.5 1.0 -31.4% Sell £ 11.3 12.63 18.28 100% 2.6 -0.6 7.8 11.3 7.84 +3.8 -0.1 +4.4 +4.2 -1.5
Deutsche Telekom € 10.11 4.5 4.2 4.2 3.9 0.7% 10.1 8.7 -13.9% Sell € 44.0 44.0 63.7 68% -0.6 4.4 8.4 -3.9 -5.78 +0.6 +4.9 +4.9 -11.1 -15.1
France Telecom € 17.46 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.2 -3.0% 17.5 16.0 -8.4% Sell € 45.6 45.6 66.0 73% 1.2 0.3 -1.5 -9.7 -12.53 +2.4 +0.8 -5.0 -16.9 -21.9
KPN € 11.99 6.0 5.9 5.3 4.9 2.1% 12.0 15.0 25.1% Buy € 22.7 22.7 32.8 100% 1.4 -0.7 -0.1 14.5 15.51 +2.6 -0.2 -3.6 +7.4 +6.2
OTE € 10.15 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.5 -1.1% 10.2 11.0 8.4% Neutral € 5.0 5.0 7.2 61% -1.5 -9.1 -17.1 -18.8 -14.71 -0.3 -8.6 -20.6 -25.9 -24.1
Portugal Telecom € 8.45 4.8 5.6 5.1 4.3 2.2% 8.4 8.0 -5.3% Neutral € 7.4 7.40 10.71 100% -0.1 4.7 8.2 35.5 39.19 +1.0 +5.3 +4.7 +28.4 +29.8
Swisscom CHF 391 6.0 6.2 5.8 5.4 -0.8% 390.5 435.0 11.4% Buy CHF 20 14 20 36% -1.9 2.2 6.5 14.5 15.02 -0.7 +2.7 +3.0 +7.4 +5.7
Telecom Italia € 1.05 4.9 4.9 4.6 4.3 -1.7% 1.1 1.2 9.3% Neutral € 18.6 18.57 26.87 76% -1.8 -7.3 -9.4 -6.0 -8.52 -0.6 -6.8 -12.9 -13.1 -17.9
Telecom Italia Savers € 0.77 0.8 0.8 4.3% Neutral 1.0 -1.6 -6.5 -4.1 -2.79 +2.2 -1.0 -9.9 -11.3 -12.1
Telefonica € 18.52 5.4 5.9 5.5 4.9 3.1% 18.5 22.0 18.8% Buy € 88.4 88.4 127.9 100% -4.5 -3.9 -1.5 18.6 16.81 -3.3 -3.3 -5.0 +11.5 +7.5
Telekom Austria € 10.00 6.8 4.5 4.5 4.2 9.6% 10.0 10.35 3.5% Neutral € 4.6 4.6 6.7 73% -0.6 -15.5 -20.4 -6.5 -2.91 +0.6 -15.0 -23.9 -13.6 -12.3
Telenor NOK 79.5 3.6 4.7 5.2 3.8 -1.0% 79.5 85.0 7.0% Neutral NOK 142 17.3 25.1 46% -2.1 2.6 13.2 62.1 71.60 -0.9 +3.1 +9.7 +55.0 +62.3
TeliaSonera SEK 50.4 4.7 5.7 5.2 4.6 3.9% 50.4 54.0 7.2% Neutral SEK 226 22.1 32.0 41% -1.9 0.7 11.9 24.9 29.43 -0.7 +1.3 +8.4 +17.8 +20.1
Vodafone £ 1.37 5.7 5.6 5.3 4.8 -0.1% 1.4 1.3 -5.4% Neutral £ 72.8 81.56 118.06 100% -3.0 0.2 2.7 -1.1 -1.19 -1.8 +0.7 -0.7 -8.2 -10.5
Sector 5.4 5.3 5.1 4.6 0.3% 391.9 567.3 -1.2 -0.6 3.5 7.1 9.35

EV/OpFCF 2008-11E EV/FCF 2008-11E P/E (adj) 2008-11E P/E (adj. pre-licence amortisation) 2008-11E Revenue growth 2008-11E
Price 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR*
Belgacom € 26.01 8.7 7.9 8.1 7.2 -1.6% 11.4 10.2 10.6 9.5 -1.6% 9.7 9.9 10.6 10.6 -2.9% 9.5 9.7 10.2 10.2 -2.5% -1.3% 0.0% -0.5% 0.2% -0.1%
BT Group £ 1.46 24.6 11.3 10.5 10.7 29.7% 33.3 15.3 14.2 14.5 29.7% -64.2 8.7 9.2 9.9 -286.2% 83.5 10.9 11.7 12.9 86.4% 3.3% -3.7% -3.9% -2.8% -3.5%
Deutsche Telekom € 10.11 8.3 8.4 8.0 7.3 -0.5% 11.5 11.9 11.4 10.5 -1.7% 12.8 14.4 15.8 14.9 -4.7% 9.9 10.8 11.6 11.1 -3.6% -1.4% 4.6% -2.3% -0.8% 0.5%
France Telecom € 17.46 9.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 -3.4% 13.8 12.6 12.7 12.5 -3.2% 10.4 10.1 10.3 10.7 -0.8% 9.3 9.0 9.3 9.6 -0.9% -10.2% -3.2% 0.6% 0.8% -0.6%
KPN € 11.99 8.6 9.0 8.0 7.2 1.2% 12.1 12.3 10.9 9.9 2.1% 15.5 12.7 11.5 10.8 13.0% 13.1 10.6 9.6 9.1 13.0% 16.9% -5.7% 0.7% 1.4% -1.2%
OTE € 10.15 10.8 7.7 7.1 5.8 11.5% 15.6 10.3 9.7 7.9 13.8% 7.8 9.1 8.3 7.2 2.5% 7.3 8.5 7.8 6.8 2.3% 1.4% -4.3% -0.2% 0.7% -1.3%
Portugal Telecom € 8.45 9.8 11.8 10.0 8.1 5.1% 13.0 15.7 13.7 11.1 4.1% 12.4 14.9 13.0 12.0 1.0% 10.8 12.5 11.1 10.4 1.2% 9.3% 0.9% 5.3% 2.3% 2.8%
Swisscom CHF 391 11.6 10.4 9.3 8.5 6.2% 14.6 13.1 11.8 10.8 5.9% 11.5 10.3 10.4 9.9 5.2% 11.9 10.1 10.3 10.3 4.8% 10.0% -1.8% 0.4% -0.2% -0.6%
Telecom Italia € 1.05 9.2 8.0 7.2 6.4 5.5% 11.8 13.0 11.6 10.3 -2.1% 8.5 10.4 10.7 9.6 -4.0% 7.6 9.1 9.4 8.5 -3.6% -3.8% -5.4% -5.5% -0.4% -3.8%
Telecom Italia Savers € 0.77 5.7 6.8 7.0 6.4 -3.7%
Telefonica € 18.52 8.4 9.0 8.2 7.2 1.8% 12.0 12.8 11.7 10.2 1.8% 11.6 11.1 10.2 9.2 7.9% 11.0 10.6 9.7 8.8 7.8% 2.7% -1.9% 0.8% 2.0% 0.3%
Telekom Austria € 10.00 18.0 7.5 8.5 7.7 23.5% 23.3 9.9 10.6 9.7 24.7% -104.5 11.4 10.7 9.2 -324.6% 204.9 9.9 9.3 8.1 193.2% 5.1% -6.0% -3.5% -0.6% -3.4%
Telenor NOK 79.5 8.5 10.9 23.3 9.2 -2.2% 11.8 15.2 32.4 12.8 -2.2% 8.9 12.3 12.8 11.3 -7.6% 8.4 10.9 11.7 10.4 -7.1% 4.3% 2.0% -0.2% 2.6% 1.5%
TeliaSonera SEK 50.4 9.3 9.4 8.9 7.6 10.2% 12.9 13.1 12.3 10.5 10.2% 12.0 11.8 11.7 11.0 3.0% 11.8 11.6 11.6 10.8 3.0% 7.5% 5.7% -0.3% 1.8% 2.3%
Vodafone £ 1.37 11.1 9.7 8.9 7.6 6.4% 12.9 12.7 11.6 9.9 2.6% 8.0 9.2 9.1 8.6 -2.3% 7.2 8.1 8.0 7.6 -1.7% 15.6% 6.8% 1.0% 1.4% 3.0%
Sector 9.5 8.9 8.5 7.6 2.9% 13.0 12.7 12.1 10.7 1.7% 10.2 10.8 10.6 10.0 1.4% 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.3 1.3% 1.8% 0.0% -0.8% 0.6% -0.1%

Dividend yield 2008-11E EFCF yield 2008-11E TSR 2008-11E Net debt/EBITDA EPS growth 2008-11E
Price 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010e 2011E CAGR
Belgacom € 26.01 8.4% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% -1.6% 8.9% 9.7% 9.1% 8.7% -2.6% 12.5% 7.9% 8.0% 8.0% -13.8% 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -3.9% -1.5% -6.9% -0.3% -2.9%
BT Group £ 1.46 4.5% 4.7% 4.8% 5.0% 3.7% 7.0% 3.5% 6.6% 6.9% 2.6% 12.6% 2.4% 4.7% 4.9% -27.3% 1.6 3.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 -112.4% 837.1% -5.4% -7.4% -286.2%
Deutsche Telekom € 10.11 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 10.1% 12.0% 10.0% 10.2% -1.7% 9.0% 9.7% 9.8% 9.9% 3.4% 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 16.2% -11.0% -8.9% 6.6% -4.7%
France Telecom € 17.46 8.0% 8.0% 8.3% 8.6% 2.2% 10.9% 11.5% 10.9% 10.1% -5.9% 10.9% 7.0% 8.3% 8.5% -7.7% 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 -29.0% 3.7% -2.4% -3.5% -0.8%
KPN € 11.99 5.0% 5.8% 6.7% 6.7% 10.1% 12.4% 11.9% 10.4% 11.2% -6.3% 9.2% 8.8% 9.6% 9.8% 2.3% 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 -1.2% 22.4% 10.6% 6.8% 13.0%
OTE € 10.15 7.4% 7.9% 8.4% 8.9% 6.3% 9.8% 9.8% 10.8% 13.7% 5.9% 7.0% 7.4% 7.9% 8.4% 6.3% 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 102.5% -14.4% 8.9% 15.5% 2.5%
Portugal Telecom € 8.45 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 9.0% 5.9% 7.7% 9.0% 9.9% 22.9% 19.5% 6.8% 6.8% -33.2% 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 -6.9% -16.6% 14.7% 7.8% 1.0%
Swisscom CHF 391 4.9% 6.5% 6.8% 6.9% 12.4% 12.4% 9.7% 10.5% 10.7% -0.4% 5.2% 4.9% 6.5% 6.8% 9.6% 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.6 -15.4% 11.7% -1.2% 5.6% 5.2%
Telecom Italia € 1.05 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 0.7% 15.1% 14.8% 14.6% 16.1% 2.1% 9.0% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% -14.8% 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.5 -2.4% -18.5% -2.7% 11.4% -4.0%
Telecom Italia Savers € 0.77 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.1% 0.5% -2.3% -17.0% -2.4% 10.2% -3.7%
Telefonica € 18.52 5.4% 6.2% 7.6% 8.4% 15.7% 11.2% 10.4% 11.0% 12.1% 5.1% 7.6% 6.6% 8.3% 9.4% 7.4% 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 -14.4% 4.1% 9.1% 10.5% 7.9%
Telekom Austria € 10.00 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.8% 1.3% 16.3% 14.3% 11.9% 13.0% -9.4% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 2.4 3.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 -109.1% 1018.9% 6.3% 16.0% -324.6%
Telenor NOK 79.5 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 3.1% nm 6.7% 6.0% -0.6% 4.4% 1.4% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% -23.3% 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.8 -6.8% -27.6% -3.7% 13.3% -7.6%
TeliaSonera SEK 50.4 3.6% 4.0% 4.5% 4.6% 8.6% 5.0% 6.2% 6.3% 6.9% 21.0% 7.9% 3.6% 4.0% 4.5% -17.4% 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.8 16.3% 1.9% 0.3% 6.9% 3.0%
Vodafone £ 1.37 5.7% 5.8% 6.1% 6.4% 4.0% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 11.9% 12.0% 6.8% 5.7% 5.9% 6.2% -3.1% 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 37.4% -13.1% 1.6% 5.7% -2.3%
Sector 6.4% 6.0% 6.7% 7.0% 3.9% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 10.8% 3.1% 8.5% 6.5% 7.1% 7.6% -3.7% 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 -7.4% -1.8% 0.9% 5.2% 1.4%

Source: UBS & Reuters. Telecom Italia PE, Dividend and EFCF yield for ordinary shares. * Growth rates for underlying financial quantities, not multiples; **Index is DJS Telecoms (SXKP); Prices are in local currency as of 13/01/10
As of 24 Apr 2008, we started to adjust our SOTP Verizon valuation for the current discount in the share price, when we calculate Vodafone's EV ** Absolute performance returns are the % change in price over the period *** Relative pef is calculated as 'stock return - index return'
European Incumbents - (2) Multiples evolution
Adj. PE 2009 forecasts at month end Sector Adj. PE 1 year forward at month end
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10
Belgacom € 26.01 9.5 9.5 8.8 ▼ 9.1 ▲ 9.4 ▲ 10.3 ▲ 10.1 ▼ 10.3 ▲ 9.8 ▼ 9.7 9.6 9.9 ▲
BT Group £ 1.46 5.2 4.5 ▼ 6.6 ▲ 8.5 ▲ 9.7 ▲ 10.3 ▲ 11.3 ▲ 10.6 ▼ 10.8 ▲ 10.6 10.7 8.7 ▼ 16 MSCI Europe European Incumbents
Deutsche Telekom € 10.11 11.2 10.1 ▼ 12.3 ▲ 10.8 ▼ 12.9 ▲ 13.8 ▲ 14.1 ▲ 14.2 14.1 14.2 14.9 ▲ 14.4 ▼
France Telecom € 17.46 9.4 9.2 ▼ 9.6 ▲ 9.8 ▲ 9.2 ▼ 10.7 ▲ 10.9 10.7 ▼ 9.9 ▼ 10.2 ▲ 10.0 10.1 14
KPN € 11.99 10.7 10.6 9.6 ▼ 10.1 ▲ 10.8 ▲ 12.0 ▲ 11.5 ▼ 12.2 ▲ 13.3 ▲ 12.5 ▼ 12.5 12.7
OTE € 10.15 7.8 8.6 ▲ 8.5 9.0 ▲ 8.7 ▼ 8.8 9.2 ▲ 9.7 ▲ 10.3 ▲ 9.2 ▼ 9.2 9.1 12
Portugal Telecom € 8.45 10.4 10.8 ▲ 10.8 11.9 ▲ 13.0 ▲ 13.3 ▲ 13.4 13.5 14.5 ▲ 15.4 ▲ 15.0 ▼ 14.9
Swisscom CHF 391 10.1 8.7 ▼ 8.4 ▼ 8.4 8.9 ▲ 9.4 ▲ 9.8 ▲ 9.9 9.4 10.3 ▲ 10.4 10.3
10
Telecom Italia € 1.05 8.0 8.4 ▲ 8.5 9.1 ▲ 9.7 ▲ 11.1 ▲ 11.4 ▲ 12.2 ▲ 10.1 ▼ 10.5 ▲ 10.8 ▲ 10.4 ▼
Telefonica € 18.52 9.0 9.2 ▲ 8.7 ▼ 9.2 ▲ 10.0 ▲ 10.7 ▲ 10.8 11.3 ▲ 11.1 11.2 11.7 ▲ 11.1 ▼
8
Telekom Austria € 10.00 9.8 11.3 ▲ 9.9 ▼ 10.7 ▲ 10.9 ▲ 10.5 ▼ 12.0 ▲ 12.5 ▲ 11.3 ▼ 11.7 ▲ 10.1 ▼ 11.4 ▲

Jan-06

Apr-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Oct-09

Jan-10
Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09
Telenor NOK 79.5 6.4 5.4 ▼ 5.8 ▲ 9.5 ▲ 8.9 ▼ 10.2 ▲ 10.5 ▲ 10.9 ▲ 12.1 ▲ 12.6 ▲ 12.6 12.3 ▼
TeliaSonera SEK 50.4 8.4 8.8 ▲ 9.0 ▲ 9.2 ▲ 9.6 ▲ 11.2 ▲ 10.7 ▼ 10.6 11.6 ▲ 11.6 12.1 ▲ 11.8 ▼
Vodafone £ 1.37 7.2 7.3 ▲ 7.4 ▲ 7.8 ▲ 7.9 8.9 ▲ 9.6 ▲ 10.0 ▲ 9.2 ▼ 9.1 9.5 ▲ 9.2 ▼
Aggregate 8.9 8.8 8.9 ▲ 9.2 ▲ 9.7 ▲ 10.7 ▲ 11.0 ▲ 11.3 ▲ 11.0 ▼ 11.1 11.4 ▲ 11.0 ▼ Source: UBS Quantitative Research, Data Solutions Team

Dividend yield 2009 forecasts at month end Sector Dividend yield 1 year forward at month end
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10
Belgacom € 26.01 8.9% 9.2% ▲ 9.9% ▲ 9.2% ▼ 8.9% ▼ 8.1% ▼ 7.8% ▼ 7.6% 8.0% ▲ 8.1% 8.2% ▲ 8.0% ▼
BT Group £ 1.46 8.0% 9.3% ▲ 7.7% ▼ 7.4% ▼ 6.4% ▼ 5.1% ▼ 4.7% ▼ 5.0% ▲ 5.0% 5.0% 5.2% ▲ 4.7% ▼ 10%
Deutsche Telekom € 10.11 8.1% 8.7% ▲ 8.5% ▼ 9.6% ▲ 9.3% ▼ 8.7% ▼ 8.4% ▼ 8.3% 8.4% 7.9% ▼ 7.5% ▼ 7.7% ▲ MSCI Europe European Incumbents
France Telecom € 17.46 8.4% 8.5% 8.6% 8.4% ▼ 9.0% ▲ 8.1% ▼ 8.0% 7.8% ▼ 8.4% ▲ 8.2% ▼ 8.0% ▼ 8.0% 8%
KPN € 11.99 7.1% 7.2% 7.9% ▲ 7.8% 7.3% ▼ 6.6% ▼ 6.5% 6.2% ▼ 5.7% ▼ 5.9% ▲ 5.9% 5.8%
OTE € 10.15 7.8% 7.1% ▼ 6.9% ▼ 7.0% 7.3% ▲ 7.3% 7.5% ▲ 7.1% ▼ 7.0% 7.8% ▲ 7.8% 7.9% 6%
Portugal Telecom € 8.45 7.0% 7.7% ▲ 7.7% 9.1% ▲ 8.2% ▼ 8.1% ▼ 8.0% 7.9% 7.4% ▼ 7.1% ▼ 6.7% ▼ 6.8%
Swisscom CHF 391 7.4% 7.4% 7.7% ▲ 8.1% ▲ 7.6% ▼ 7.3% ▼ 7.0% ▼ 6.9% 6.9% 6.5% ▼ 6.4% 6.5% 4%
Telecom Italia € 1.05 6.2% 5.3% ▼ 5.3% 5.1% ▼ 5.1% 4.6% ▼ 4.4% 4.2% ▼ 4.6% ▲ 4.7% 4.6% 4.8% ▲
Telefonica € 18.52 7.8% 7.7% ▼ 8.0% ▲ 7.6% ▼ 7.1% ▼ 6.6% ▼ 6.5% 6.6% 6.0% ▼ 6.0% 5.9% 6.2% ▲ 2%
Telekom Austria € 10.00 7.2% 6.6% ▼ 7.5% ▲ 6.9% ▼ 6.7% 7.0% ▲ 6.2% ▼ 6.1% 6.7% ▲ 6.5% ▼ 7.5% ▲ 7.5%

Mar-06
May-06

Mar-07
May-07

Mar-08
May-08

Mar-09
May-09
Jan-06

Sep-06
Nov-06
Jan-07

Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08

Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09

Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09
Telenor NOK 79.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TeliaSonera SEK 50.4 6.0% 5.1% ▼ 5.2% ▲ 5.1% 4.9% ▼ 4.3% ▼ 4.3% 4.4% 3.2% ▼ 4.0% ▲ 3.9% ▼ 4.0%
Vodafone £ 1.37 6.8% 6.9% 6.8% 7.2% ▲ 7.1% 6.8% ▼ 6.3% ▼ 5.9% ▼ 6.2% ▲ 6.1% 5.8% ▼ 5.8%
Aggregate 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.2% 6.6% ▼ 6.4% ▼ 6.3% 6.2% 6.1% 5.9% ▼ 6.0% Source: UBS Quantitative Research, Data Solutions Team

EV/EBITDA 2009 forecasts at month end Net debt/EBITDA 2009 forecasts at month end
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10
Belgacom € 26.01 4.7 4.6 ▼ 4.8 ▲ 4.9 ▲ 4.9 5.3 ▲ 5.5 ▲ 5.5 5.6 5.3 ▼ 5.2 ▼ 5.4 ▲ 0.9 0.9 ▲ 0.9 0.9 ▲ 0.9 0.9 ▲ 0.9 ▼ 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 ▲ 0.9
BT Group £ 1.46 3.9 4.0 ▲ 4.6 ▲ 4.5 ▼ 4.7 ▲ 4.9 ▲ 5.1 ▲ 5.0 ▼ 5.0 5.4 ▲ 5.3 5.5 ▲ 2.4 2.4 2.4 ▼ 2.2 ▼ 2.2 ▲ 2.0 ▼ 2.1 ▲ 2.1 2.1 ▲ 2.1 ▼ 2.1 ▲ 2.1 ▲
Deutsche Telekom € 10.11 4.2 4.2 4.7 ▲ 4.5 ▼ 4.2 ▼ 4.2 3.9 ▼ 3.9 4.7 ▲ 4.7 ▼ - 4.2 2.0 2.0 ▲ 2.2 ▲ 2.2 1.9 ▼ 1.9 2.1 ▲ 2.1 2.2 ▲ 2.1 ▼ 2.1 2.1 ▲
France Telecom € 17.46 4.1 4.7 ▲ 4.8 ▲ 4.8 ▼ 4.7 ▼ 4.8 ▲ 5.0 ▲ 5.7 ▲ 5.6 ▼ 5.5 5.6 5.6 1.6 1.7 ▲ 1.8 ▲ 1.8 1.8 1.9 ▲ 1.9 1.9 ▲ 1.9 1.9 1.9 ▼ 1.9
KPN € 11.99 5.0 4.9 ▼ 5.0 ▲ 5.0 5.2 ▲ 5.4 ▲ 5.5 ▲ 5.7 ▲ 6.1 ▲ 5.8 ▼ 5.8 5.9 ▲ 2.0 2.0 2.0 ▲ 2.1 ▲ 2.1 ▲ 2.1 ▼ 2.1 ▲ 2.1 2.1 2.1 ▼ 2.1 2.1
OTE € 10.15 3.8 4.0 ▲ 4.1 4.3 ▲ 4.2 ▼ 4.1 ▼ 4.4 ▲ 4.6 ▲ 4.8 ▲ 4.4 ▼ 4.3 ▼ 4.3 1.9 1.9 ▲ 1.8 ▼ 1.8 ▲ 1.8 ▲ 1.8 2.0 ▲ 2.0 2.0 ▲ 2.0 2.0 2.0
Portugal Telecom € 8.45 5.0 4.8 ▼ 5.1 ▲ 5.8 ▲ 6.0 ▲ 6.1 ▲ 6.1 6.0 6.2 ▲ 5.6 ▼ 5.5 5.6 2.5 2.4 ▼ 2.4 2.4 ▲ 2.4 2.4 2.4 ▼ 2.4 2.4 2.2 ▼ 2.2 ▼ 2.2
Swisscom CHF 391 5.9 5.5 ▼ 5.5 5.7 ▲ 6.0 ▲ 6.1 ▲ 6.3 ▲ 6.2 ▼ 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 2.2 2.1 ▼ 2.1 2.1 ▲ 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 ▼ 2.0 ▼ 1.9 ▼ 1.9 1.9
Telecom Italia € 1.05 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 ▲ 4.6 4.6 4.7 ▲ 5.0 ▲ 4.9 ▼ 4.9 4.9 4.9 2.8 2.8 ▼ 2.8 ▲ 2.8 ▲ 2.8 ▼ 2.8 ▼ 2.8 2.9 ▲ 0.0 ▼ 3.0 ▲ 3.0 3.0
Telefonica € 18.52 4.8 5.0 ▲ 5.1 ▲ 5.2 5.5 ▲ 5.6 ▲ 5.7 5.9 ▲ 5.9 6.0 ▲ 6.0 5.9 ▼ 2.0 2.0 1.9 ▼ 1.9 1.9 ▲ 1.9 ▼ 1.9 1.9 ▲ 1.9 1.9 2.0 ▲ 2.0
Telekom Austria € 10.00 4.1 4.5 ▲ 4.6 ▲ 4.6 4.8 ▲ 5.0 ▲ 5.3 ▲ 4.8 ▼ 4.8 4.8 4.3 ▼ 4.5 ▲ 2.0 2.1 ▲ 2.1 2.1 ▲ 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 ▼ 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 ▲
Telenor NOK 79.5 6.5 3.5 ▼ 3.7 ▲ 4.4 ▲ 4.4 4.6 ▲ 4.9 ▲ 4.6 ▼ 4.9 ▲ 5.4 ▲ 4.8 ▼ 4.7 2.0 1.4 ▼ 1.4 1.8 ▲ 1.8 ▼ 1.8 1.6 ▼ 1.2 ▼ 1.2 1.2 1.0 ▼ 1.0
TeliaSonera SEK 50.4 4.5 4.0 ▼ 4.4 ▲ 4.6 ▲ 4.8 ▲ 5.5 ▲ 5.5 5.3 ▼ 5.4 ▲ 5.6 ▲ 5.8 ▲ 5.7 ▼ 1.3 1.1 ▼ 1.3 ▲ 1.3 1.3 1.3 ▲ 1.2 ▼ 1.2 1.3 ▲ 1.2 ▼ 1.2 1.2
Vodafone £ 1.37 4.4 4.5 ▲ 5.0 ▲ 4.8 ▼ 4.9 5.0 ▲ 5.1 5.6 ▲ 5.7 ▲ 5.6 ▼ 5.7 5.6 1.7 1.9 ▲ 1.9 2.3 ▲ 2.3 2.4 ▲ 2.3 ▼ 2.2 ▼ 2.3 ▲ 2.4 ▲ 2.4 2.4
4.5 4.5 4.8 ▲ 4.8 4.8 5.0 ▲ 5.0 5.2 ▲ 5.4 ▲ 5.4 5.4 5.3 ▼ 2.0 2.0 ▲ 2.0 ▲ 2.1 ▲ 2.0 ▼ 2.1 ▲ 2.1 ▲ 2.1 ▲ 1.8 ▼ 2.1 ▲ 2.1 ▼ 2.1 ▲

Source: UBS estimates & Reuters. PE for BT does not strip out pension income. The arrows show the direction of the multiples change. Prices and data are in local currency; prices as of 13/01/10
European Incumbents - (3) Financials evolution
Revenue 2009 forecasts at month end 2009 Revenue growth over last 6 months
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10
Belgacom € 26.01 5,971 5,947 ▼ 5,947 5,939 ▼ 5,939 5,939 ▲ 5,978 ▲ 5,978 5,978 5,978 5,983 ▲ 5,983
BT Group £ 1.46 20,452 20,452 20,247 ▼ 19,937 ▼ 19,995 ▲ 20,012 ▲ 19,952 ▼ 19,952 19,956 ▲ 20,012 ▲ 19,996 ▼ 20,605 ▲
10%
Deutsche Telekom € 10.11 68,188 68,493 ▲ 67,721 ▼ 67,721 65,636 ▼ 65,636 65,447 ▼ 65,447 65,230 ▼ 64,649 ▼ 64,649 64,493 ▼
8%
France Telecom € 17.46 52,783 52,286 ▼ 52,347 ▲ 52,347 52,347 51,644 ▼ 51,644 46,328 ▼ 46,328 46,328 46,056 ▼ 46,056
6%
KPN € 11.99 14,765 14,765 14,449 ▼ 14,022 ▼ 13,969 ▼ 14,004 ▲ 13,686 ▼ 13,686 13,686 13,613 ▼ 13,613 13,613 3.0%
4% 2.3%
OTE € 10.15 6,519 6,488 ▼ 6,398 ▼ 6,182 ▼ 6,159 ▼ 6,159 6,190 ▲ 6,190 6,134 ▼ 6,134 6,134 6,134 0.7% 0.9%
2% 0.0% 0.3%
Portugal Telecom € 8.45 6,628 6,722 ▲ 6,722 6,778 ▲ 6,778 6,778 6,622 ▼ 6,622 6,622 6,772 ▲ 6,781 ▲ 6,781
0%
Swisscom CHF 391 12,036 12,090 ▲ 12,090 11,934 ▼ 11,934 11,934 11,934 11,945 ▲ 11,934 ▲ 11,975 ▼ 11,975 11,975 . -0.1%
-2% -0.4% -0.7%
Telecom Italia € 1.05 29,346 29,327 ▼ 29,267 ▼ 29,228 ▼ 28,485 ▼ 28,222 ▼ 28,222 28,589 ▲ 28,618 ▲ 28,478 ▼ 28,478 28,478 -1.7% -2.2%
-4% -2.8% -2.9% -2.3%
Telefonica € 18.52 58,263 58,263 57,786 ▼ 57,786 56,893 ▼ 56,907 ▲ 56,907 57,567 ▲ 57,567 57,567 56,832 ▼ 56,832
-6%
Telekom Austria € 10.00 5,189 5,187 ▼ 5,187 4,970 ▼ 4,970 4,970 4,970 4,973 ▲ 4,973 4,973 4,973 4,861 ▼
-8%
Telenor NOK 79.5 103,658 102,990 ▼ 102,990 100,731 ▼ 101,035 ▲ 101,035 97,079 ▼ 98,113 ▲ 98,113 98,113 98,072 ▼ 98,072
-10%
TeliaSonera SEK 50.4 110,557 114,764 ▲ 111,409 ▼ 111,409 111,409 110,183 ▼ 111,061 ▲ 111,061 109,461 ▼ 109,452 ▼ 109,452 109,452 BE BT DT FT KPN OTE PT SCOM TI TEF TA TN TS VOD Agg.
Vodafone £ 1.37 46,352 46,778 ▲ 46,778 45,223 ▼ 45,223 42,816 ▼ 43,575 ▲ 44,324 ▲ 45,896 ▲ 44,104 ▼ 44,104 43,790 ▼
Aggregate (in bn €) 352.5 350.1 ▼ 351.1 ▲ 349.0 ▼ 347.0 ▼ 344.0 ▼ 341.8 ▼ 336.0 ▼ 338.7 ▲ 334.6 ▼ 336.4 ▲ 335.9 ▼

EBITDA 2009 forecasts at month end 2009 EBITDA growth over last 6 months
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10
Belgacom € 26.01 2,007 1,930 ▼ 1,930 1,900 ▼ 1,900 1,900 ▲ 1,936 ▲ 1,936 1,936 1,936 1,946 ▲ 1,946
BT Group £ 1.46 5,293 5,293 5,302 ▲ 5,060 ▼ 5,108 ▲ 5,316 ▲ 5,307 ▼ 5,307 5,300 ▼ 5,493 ▲ 5,439 ▼ 5,520 ▲
15%
Deutsche Telekom € 10.11 21,522 21,604 ▲ 20,278 ▼ 20,278 20,061 ▼ 20,061 20,347 ▲ 20,347 20,293 ▼ 20,708 ▲ 20,708 20,651 ▼
France Telecom € 17.46 19,068 18,900 ▼ 18,000 ▼ 18,000 18,000 17,495 ▼ 17,495 16,747 ▼ 16,747 16,747 16,855 ▲ 16,855
10%
KPN € 11.99 5,307 5,307 5,238 ▼ 5,189 ▼ 5,166 ▼ 5,154 ▼ 5,130 ▼ 5,130 5,130 5,176 ▲ 5,176 5,176 6.7%
5.7% 5.1%
OTE € 10.15 2,379 2,370 ▼ 2,371 ▲ 2,285 ▼ 2,273 ▼ 2,273 2,179 ▼ 2,179 2,154 ▼ 2,154 2,154 2,154 3.8%
5% 2.4% 2.9% 2.8% 3.1%
Portugal Telecom € 8.45 2,330 2,289 ▼ 2,289 2,269 ▼ 2,269 2,269 2,270 ▲ 2,270 2,270 2,361 ▲ 2,399 ▲ 2,399 0.8%
0.4% 0.6% 0.7%
Swisscom CHF 391 4,669 4,667 ▼ 4,667 4,616 ▼ 4,616 4,616 4,616 4,609 ▼ 4,624 ▲ 4,744 ▲ 4,744 4,744 .
0%
Telecom Italia € 1.05 11,683 11,694 ▲ 11,625 ▼ 11,521 ▼ 11,318 ▼ 11,321 ▲ 11,321 11,420 ▲ 11,446 ▲ 11,417 ▼ 11,417 11,417 -0.3%
Telefonica € 18.52 22,447 22,447 22,226 ▼ 22,226 22,013 ▼ 22,116 ▲ 22,116 22,348 ▲ 22,348 22,348 22,047 ▼ 22,047 -5% -3.7%
Telekom Austria € 10.00 1,844 1,817 ▼ 1,817 1,788 ▼ 1,788 1,788 1,788 1,847 ▲
1,847 1,847 1,847 1,798 ▼ -5.2%
Telenor NOK 79.5 25,289 29,391 ▲ 29,391 28,803 ▼ 28,898 ▲ 28,898 28,740 ▼ 29,897 ▲ 29,897 29,897 30,819 ▲ 30,819 -10%
TeliaSonera SEK 50.4 33,518 35,246 ▲ 34,086 ▼ 34,086 34,086 33,722 ▼ 34,796 ▲
34,796 34,329 ▼ 34,759 ▲
34,759 34,759 BE BT DT FT KPN OTE PT SCOM TI TEF TA TN TS VOD Agg.
Vodafone £ 1.37 16,325 15,940 ▼ 15,940 15,038 ▼ 15,038 13,979 ▼ 14,137 ▲ 14,427 ▲ 14,954 ▲ 14,519 ▼ 14,519 14,691 ▲
Aggregate (in bn €) 121.9 120.9 ▼ 119.2 ▼ 117.9 ▼ 117.8 ▼ 116.6 ▼ 116.5 ▼ 115.8 ▼ 116.7 ▲ 116.6 ▼ 117.4 ▲ 117.4 ▼

Adj. EPS 2009 forecasts at month end 2008 EPS growth over last 6 months
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10
Belgacom € 26.01 2.72 2.50 ▼ 2.50 2.43 ▼ 2.43 2.43 ▼ 2.59 ▲ 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.63 ▲ 2.63
BT Group £ 1.46 17.57 17.57 14.26 ▼ 10.29 ▼ 10.49 ▲ 12.28 ▲ 12.24 ▼ 12.24 12.18 ▼ 13.17 ▲ 12.66 ▼ 13.33 ▲
40%
Deutsche Telekom € 10.11 0.86 0.91 ▲ 0.75 ▼ 0.75 0.65 ▼ 0.65 0.66 ▲ 0.66 0.65 ▼ 0.69 ▲ 0.69 0.70 ▲
France Telecom € 17.46 1.90 1.87 ▼ 1.75 ▼ 1.75 1.75 1.63 ▼ 1.63 1.71 ▲ 1.71 1.71 1.74 ▲ 1.74 30%
KPN € 11.99 0.95 0.95 0.95 ▼ 0.92 ▼ 0.91 ▼ 0.88 ▼ 0.93 ▲ 0.93 0.93 0.94 ▲ 0.94 0.94 20% 16.3%
OTE € 10.15 1.32 1.31 ▼ 1.37 ▲ 1.27 ▼ 1.25 ▼ 1.25 1.16 ▼ 1.16 1.12 ▼ 1.12 1.12 1.12 8.5% 8.6% 8.2% 6.2% 7.1% 6.3% 8.0%
10% 2.2% 2.0% 3.8%
1.0%
Portugal Telecom € 8.45 0.62 0.54 ▼ 0.54 0.53 ▼ 0.53 0.53 0.54 ▲ 0.54 0.54 0.52 ▼ 0.57 ▲ 0.57
0%
Swisscom CHF 391 34.74 35.74 ▲ 35.74 37.47 ▲ 37.47 37.47 37.47 37.41 ▼ 37.63 ▲ 37.87 ▲ 37.87 37.87 .
Telecom Italia € 1.05 0.12 0.12 ▼ 0.11 ▼ 0.11 ▼ 0.10 ▼ 0.10 ▼ 0.10 0.10 ▼ 0.11 ▲ 0.10 ▼ 0.10 0.10 -10%
-10.6%
Telefonica € 18.52 1.63 1.63 1.65 ▲ 1.65 1.62 ▼ 1.63 ▲ 1.63 1.67 ▲ 1.71 ▲ 1.71 1.67 ▼ 1.67 -20% -13.7%
Telekom Austria € 10.00 1.06 1.01 ▼ 1.01 1.02 ▲ 1.02 1.02 1.02 0.99 ▼ 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.88 ▼ -30%
Telenor NOK 79.5 5.67 7.10 ▲ 7.10 5.58 ▼ 5.55 ▼ 5.55 5.41 ▼ 6.13 ▲ 6.13 6.13 6.45 ▲ 6.45
-40%
TeliaSonera SEK 50.4 4.31 4.50 ▲ 4.24 ▼ 4.24 4.24 4.12 ▼ 4.31 ▲ 4.31 4.11 ▼ 4.27 ▲ 4.27 4.27 BE BT DT FT KPN OTE PT SCOM TI TEF TA TN TS VOD Agg.
Vodafone £ 1.37 17.46 16.77 ▼ 16.77 14.91 ▼ 14.91 13.82 ▼ 13.82 ▲ 14.00 ▲ 14.70 ▲ 15.10 ▲ 15.10 14.92 ▼

Source: UBS estimates & Reuters. EPS for BT does not strip out pension income. The arrows show the direction of the forecast change. Prices and data are in local currency; prices as of 13/01/10
European Incumbents - (4) Forecasts
Revenue Revenue growth 2008-11E Core EBITDA EBITDA growth 2008-11E EBITDA margin
Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Belgacom € 26.01 6,065 5,985 5,983 5,954 5,965 -1.3% 0.0% -0.5% 0.2% -0.1% 2,077 1,997 1,946 1,878 1,855 -3.9% -2.5% -3.5% -1.2% -2.4% 34.2% 33.4% 32.5% 31.5% 31.1%
BT Group £ 1.46 20,701 21,392 20,605 19,792 19,239 3.3% -3.7% -3.9% -2.8% -3.5% 5,784 3,599 5,520 5,413 5,238 -37.8% 53.4% -1.9% -3.2% 13.3% 27.9% 16.8% 26.8% 27.3% 27.2%
Deutsche Telekom € 10.11 62,516 61,666 64,493 63,017 62,531 -1.4% 4.6% -2.3% -0.8% 0.5% 19,326 19,459 20,651 19,810 19,875 0.7% 6.1% -4.1% 0.3% 0.7% 30.9% 31.6% 32.0% 31.4% 31.8%
France Telecom € 17.46 52,956 47,564 46,056 46,349 46,738 -10.2% -3.2% 0.6% 0.8% -0.6% 19,121 17,841 16,855 16,559 16,297 -6.7% -5.5% -1.8% -1.6% -3.0% 36.1% 37.5% 36.6% 35.7% 34.9%
KPN € 11.99 12,344 14,434 13,613 13,713 13,907 16.9% -5.7% 0.7% 1.4% -1.2% 4,900 5,058 5,176 5,357 5,380 3.2% 2.3% 3.5% 0.4% 2.1% 39.7% 35.0% 38.0% 39.1% 38.7%
OTE € 10.15 6,320 6,407 6,134 6,124 6,169 1.4% -4.3% -0.2% 0.7% -1.3% 2,241 2,321 2,154 2,151 2,244 3.6% -7.2% -0.2% 4.3% -1.1% 35.5% 36.2% 35.1% 35.1% 36.4%
Portugal Telecom € 8.45 6,149 6,721 6,781 7,137 7,300 9.3% 0.9% 5.3% 2.3% 2.8% 2,226 2,436 2,399 2,522 2,598 9.4% -1.5% 5.1% 3.0% 2.2% 36.2% 36.2% 35.4% 35.3% 35.6%
Swisscom CHF 390.50 11,089 12,198 11,975 12,017 11,993 10.0% -1.8% 0.4% -0.2% -0.6% 4,501 4,788 4,744 4,732 4,673 6.4% -0.9% -0.2% -1.2% -0.8% 40.6% 39.3% 39.6% 39.4% 39.0%
Telecom Italia € 1.05 31,290 30,116 28,478 26,914 26,810 -3.8% -5.4% -5.5% -0.4% -3.8% 12,386 11,652 11,417 10,922 11,051 -5.9% -2.0% -4.3% 1.2% -1.7% 39.6% 38.7% 40.1% 40.6% 41.2%
Telefonica € 18.52 56,441 57,946 56,832 57,272 58,399 2.7% -1.9% 0.8% 2.0% 0.3% 22,825 22,919 22,047 22,225 22,853 0.4% -3.8% 0.8% 2.8% -0.1% 40.4% 39.6% 38.8% 38.8% 39.1%
Telekom Austria € 10.00 4,919 5,170 4,861 4,690 4,662 5.1% -6.0% -3.5% -0.6% -3.4% 1,834 1,296 1,798 1,694 1,708 -29.4% 38.8% -5.8% 0.8% 9.6% 37.3% 25.1% 37.0% 36.1% 36.6%
Telenor NOK 79.45 92,211 96,167 98,072 97,912 100,466 4.3% 2.0% -0.2% 2.6% 1.5% 29,058 30,433 30,819 27,416 29,500 4.7% 1.3% -11.0% 7.6% -1.0% 31.5% 31.6% 31.4% 28.0% 29.4%
TeliaSonera SEK 50.35 96,344 103,585 109,452 109,086 111,006 7.5% 5.7% -0.3% 1.8% 2.3% 30,020 31,954 34,759 34,640 35,844 6.4% 8.8% -0.3% 3.5% 3.9% 31.2% 30.8% 31.8% 31.8% 32.3%
Vodafone £ 1.37 35,478 41,017 43,790 44,209 44,822 15.6% 6.8% 1.0% 1.4% 3.0% 13,182 14,490 14,691 14,461 14,460 9.9% 1.4% -1.6% 0.0% -0.1% 37.2% 35.3% 33.5% 32.7% 32.3%
Sector (€bn) 330.1 336.0 336.1 333.6 335.5 1.8% 0.0% -0.8% 0.6% -0.1% 117.7 115.3 117.4 115.3 116.2 -2.0% 1.8% -1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 35.7% 34.3% 34.9% 34.6% 34.6%

EPS EPS growth 2008-11E DPS DPS growth 2008-11E Capex

Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Belgacom € 26.01 2.78 2.68 2.63 2.45 2.45 -3.9% -1.5% -6.9% -0.3% -2.9% 2.18 2.18 2.08 2.08 2.08 0.0% -4.6% 0.0% 0.0% -1.6% 626 764 615 677 629
BT Group £ 1.46 0.18 -0.02 0.17 0.16 0.15 -112.4% -837.1% -5.4% -7.4% -286.2% 0.16 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 -58.9% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.7% 3,303 3,082 2,652 2,601 2,545
Deutsche Telekom € 10.11 0.68 0.79 0.70 0.64 0.68 16.2% -11.0% -8.9% 6.6% -4.7% 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7,293 8,707 8,958 9,505 9,403
France Telecom € 17.46 2.36 1.67 1.74 1.69 1.63 -29.0% 3.7% -2.4% -3.5% -0.8% 1.30 1.40 1.40 1.45 1.49 7.7% 0.0% 3.6% 3.0% 2.2% 6,980 6,414 5,345 5,679 6,005
KPN € 11.99 0.78 0.77 0.94 1.04 1.11 -1.2% 22.4% 10.6% 6.8% 13.0% 0.54 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.80 11.1% 16.7% 14.3% 0.0% 10.1% 1,688 1,925 1,871 1,781 1,704
OTE € 10.15 0.65 1.31 1.12 1.22 1.41 102.5% -14.4% 8.9% 15.5% 2.5% 0.75 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.0% 6.7% 6.3% 5.9% 6.3% 1,100 961 948 950 903
Portugal Telecom € 8.45 0.73 0.68 0.57 0.65 0.70 -6.9% -16.6% 14.7% 7.8% 1.0% 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 899 899 1,243 1,247 1,212
Swisscom CHF 390.50 40.08 33.90 37.87 37.40 39.49 -15.4% 11.7% -1.2% 5.6% 5.2% 20.00 19.00 25.50 26.50 27.00 -5.0% 34.2% 3.9% 1.9% 12.4% 2,025 2,050 1,901 1,801 1,728
Telecom Italia € 1.05 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.11 -2.4% -18.5% -2.7% 11.4% -4.0% 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 -37.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.7% 5,520 5,365 4,536 3,971 3,667
Telefonica € 18.52 1.87 1.60 1.67 1.82 2.01 -14.4% 4.1% 9.1% 10.5% 7.9% 0.75 1.00 1.15 1.40 1.55 33.3% 15.0% 21.7% 10.7% 15.7% 7,205 7,861 7,332 7,155 6,992
Telekom Austria € 10.00 1.05 -0.10 0.88 0.93 1.08 -109.1% -1018.9% 6.3% 16.0% -324.6% 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.78 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 1.3% 851 808 709 795 788
Telenor NOK 79.45 9.57 8.91 6.45 6.21 7.04 -6.8% -27.6% -3.7% 13.3% -7.6% 3.50 0.00 0.00 2.00 2.50 -100.0% mn mn 25.0% mn 19,075 17,465 17,575 21,277 17,350
TeliaSonera SEK 50.35 3.61 4.20 4.27 4.29 4.59 16.3% 1.9% 0.3% 6.9% 3.0% 4.00 1.80 2.00 2.26 2.31 -55.0% 11.1% 12.8% 2.3% 8.6% 13,531 15,795 13,879 14,248 14,230
Vodafone £ 1.37 0.13 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.16 37.4% -13.1% 1.6% 5.7% -2.3% 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 3.5% 3.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4,698 6,968 6,154 5,822 5,398
Sector (€bn) -7.4% -1.8% 0.9% 5.2% 1.4% -0.3% -3.0% 11.4% 3.9% 3.9% 46.1 50.0 46.2 46.4 44.9

EFCF EFCF growth 2008-11E Net debt Net debt growth 2008-11E Capex growth 2008-11E
Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR*
Belgacom € 26.01 979 788 804 759 728 -19.5% 2.0% -5.6% -4.1% -2.6% -1,167 -1,835 -1,744 -1,693 -1,609 57.2% -4.9% -3.0% -4.9% -4.3% 22.0% -19.5% 10.1% -7.1% -6.3%
BT Group £ 1.46 848 753 409 781 814 -11.1% -45.7% 91.0% 4.2% 2.6% -9,390 -12,449 -11,815 -11,278 -11,016 32.6% -5.1% -4.5% -2.3% -4.0% -6.7% -13.9% -1.9% -2.2% -6.2%
Deutsche Telekom € 10.11 6,045 4,716 5,264 4,397 4,478 -22.0% 11.6% -16.5% 1.8% -1.7% -38,687 -41,399 -43,381 -42,254 -41,119 7.0% 4.8% -2.6% -2.7% -0.2% 19.4% 2.9% 6.1% -1.1% 2.6%
France Telecom € 17.46 4,763 5,665 5,308 5,079 4,726 18.9% -6.3% -4.3% -7.0% -5.9% -37,980 -35,218 -32,459 -31,581 -29,796 -7.3% -7.8% -2.7% -5.7% -5.4% -8.1% -16.7% 6.2% 5.7% -2.2%
KPN € 11.99 2,655 2,437 2,346 1,949 2,002 -8.2% -3.7% -16.9% 2.7% -6.3% -10,950 -10,900 -10,646 -10,886 -11,068 -0.5% -2.3% 2.3% 1.7% 0.5% 14.0% -2.8% -4.8% -4.4% -4.0%
OTE € 10.15 521 595 509 558 708 14.4% -14.5% 9.5% 27.0% 5.9% -4,212 -4,620 -4,414 -4,150 -3,794 9.7% -4.5% -6.0% -8.6% -6.4% -12.6% -1.3% 0.2% -4.9% -2.1%
Portugal Telecom € 8.45 628 577 504 657 766 -8.0% -12.7% 30.4% 16.6% 9.9% -4,382 -5,571 -5,221 -5,085 -4,848 27.1% -6.3% -2.6% -4.7% -4.5% 0.0% 38.3% 0.3% -2.8% 10.5%
Swisscom CHF 390.50 1,575 2,183 1,940 2,106 2,154 38.6% -11.2% 8.6% 2.3% -0.4% -11,357 -10,834 -9,090 -8,251 -7,384 -4.6% -16.1% -9.2% -10.5% -12.0% 1.2% -7.3% -5.3% -4.1% -5.5%
Telecom Italia € 1.05 2,001 3,066 2,995 2,954 3,260 53.2% -2.3% -1.4% 10.3% 2.1% -35,873 -34,526 -33,848 -29,675 -27,824 -3.8% -2.0% -12.3% -6.2% -6.9% -2.8% -15.5% -12.5% -7.6% -11.9%
Telefonica € 18.52 7,696 8,474 8,776 9,150 9,841 10.1% 3.6% 4.3% 7.6% 5.1% -47,241 -46,695 -43,263 -41,715 -40,188 -1.2% -7.4% -3.6% -3.7% -4.9% 9.1% -6.7% -2.4% -2.3% -3.8%
Telekom Austria € 10.00 725 774 634 527 576 6.7% -18.0% -17.0% 9.4% -9.4% -4,407 -4,042 -3,692 -3,518 -3,339 -8.3% -8.6% -4.7% -5.1% -6.2% -5.1% -12.2% 12.0% -0.9% -0.8%
Telenor NOK 79.45 5,489 5,574 8,027 -816 5,808 1.5% 44.0% -110.2% -811.7% 1.4% -39,881 -45,547 -30,105 -28,421 -24,473 14.2% -33.9% -5.6% -13.9% -18.7% -8.4% 0.6% 21.1% -18.5% -0.2%
TeliaSonera SEK 50.35 12,220 8,904 14,311 14,480 15,767 -27.1% 60.7% 1.2% 8.9% 21.0% -33,838 -48,614 -43,231 -36,291 -29,176 43.7% -11.1% -16.1% -19.6% -15.6% 16.7% -12.1% 2.7% -0.1% -3.4%
Vodafone £ 1.37 5,949 6,456 6,485 6,372 9,076 8.5% 0.5% -1.7% 42.4% 12.0% -25,147 -34,223 -34,902 -34,373 -31,339 36.1% 2.0% -1.5% -8.8% -2.9% 48.3% -11.7% -5.4% -7.3% -8.2%
Sector (€bn) 36.6 38.2 38.6 36.8 41.9 4.5% 0.9% -4.6% 13.8% 3.1% -239 -255 -245 -234 -222 6.4% -3.8% -4.4% -5.3% -4.5% 8.4% -7.6% 0.4% -3.3% -3.6%

Source: UBS estimates & Reuters. Prices and data are in local currency; prices as of 13/01/10
European Incumbents - (5) Financial ratios
Dividend payout (% adj. earnings) Dividend payout (% EFCF) Dividend cover (adj. earnings) Interest cover: EBIT / Interest Interest cover: OpFCF / Interest
Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Belgacom € 26.01 78.3% 81.5% 79.0% 84.8% 85.1% 74.9% 89.6% 83.5% 88.6% 92.4% 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 17.8 11.4 9.0 8.7 9.3 20.3 11.8 9.6 8.9 9.8
BT Group £ 1.46 86.4% -286.4% 40.8% 44.4% 49.4% 150.4% 66.6% 129.6% 70.2% 69.8% 1.2 -0.3 2.5 2.3 2.0 7.6 1.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 6.5 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.3
Deutsche Telekom € 10.11 115.1% 99.1% 111.3% 122.2% 114.6% 56.2% 72.0% 64.5% 77.2% 75.8% 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.4
France Telecom € 17.46 55.2% 83.7% 80.7% 85.6% 91.4% 66.5% 87.4% 59.2% 74.4% 82.4% 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 4.2 3.8 4.4 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.1 5.0 5.3 5.2
KPN € 11.99 69.2% 77.8% 74.1% 76.6% 71.8% 36.7% 42.2% 49.0% 64.2% 59.3% 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 4.5 3.7 4.4 4.6 4.7 6.0 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.7
OTE € 10.15 116.2% 57.4% 71.5% 69.8% 64.0% 62.6% 58.4% 72.3% 70.5% 59.0% 0.9 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 6.5 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.7 4.5 3.6 4.7 4.9 5.9
Portugal Telecom € 8.45 78.5% 84.3% 101.1% 88.1% 81.7% 88.1% 92.4% 99.9% 76.7% 65.7% 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 -9.5 8.8 -10.5 8.6 10.9 -11.4 9.2 -12.2 9.7 12.4
Swisscom CHF 390.50 49.9% 56.0% 67.3% 70.9% 68.4% 65.8% 45.1% 68.1% 65.2% 64.9% 2.0 1.8 1.5 0.7 1.5 13.7 5.5 8.4 9.0 9.9 10.9 5.0 8.4 9.5 10.7
Telecom Italia € 1.05 62.9% 40.3% 49.4% 50.8% 46.5% 77.1% 31.4% 32.2% 32.6% 30.2% 1.6 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 3.2 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.3 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.4
Telefonica € 18.52 40.1% 62.4% 69.0% 77.0% 77.1% 46.5% 55.5% 59.7% 68.7% 69.1% 2.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.5 6.3 5.4 5.3 5.5 6.0 6.8
Telekom Austria € 10.00 71.6% -784.1% 85.3% 80.3% 72.0% 46.7% 42.8% 52.3% 63.0% 59.9% 1.4 -0.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 4.9 0.7 3.3 3.5 4.6 6.5 2.4 4.7 4.4 5.5
Telenor NOK 79.45 36.6% 0.0% 0.0% 32.2% 35.5% 107.1% 0.0% 0.0% -411.8% 72.3% 2.7 nm nm 3.1 2.8 10.0 9.4 7.9 10.2 12.3 4.7 5.2 6.0 3.5 7.4
TeliaSonera SEK 50.35 110.8% 42.9% 46.8% 52.6% 50.3% 147.0% 90.8% 62.8% 69.9% 65.7% 0.9 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.0 29.7 13.4 11.6 13.6 17.4 18.2 7.2 7.6 8.2 10.6
Vodafone £ 1.37 60.1% 45.2% 53.6% 55.4% 54.5% 67.0% 63.8% 65.4% 69.9% 51.0% 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.8 7.8 10.9 11.5 10.7 11.6 6.5 4.6 8.9 8.1 8.7
Sector 60.6% 65.2% 64.4% 71.2% 70.2% 65.1% 62.1% 59.7% 69.7% 63.6% 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 5.1 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.3 5.2 4.2 4.9 5.0 5.4

Net debt / EBITDA Net debt / EV Net debt / Market cap Depreciation / Capex Capex / sales
Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Belgacom € 26.01 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 9.0% 16.4% 16.6% 17.5% 18.2% 10.4% 20.5% 20.7% 20.1% 19.1% 123.6% 98.6% 115.3% 103.2% 109.5% 10.3% 12.8% 10.3% 11.4% 10.5%
BT Group £ 1.46 1.6 3.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 24.1% 41.7% 39.2% 38.8% 38.9% 41.7% 119.5% 104.4% 99.2% 96.4% 87.5% 93.8% 113.2% 114.0% 113.6% 16.0% 14.4% 12.9% 13.1% 13.2%
Deutsche Telekom € 10.11 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 nm 46.8% 49.5% 51.4% 53.6% 59.1% 88.6% 98.6% 96.0% 93.4% 154.1% 122.2% 130.1% 118.7% 117.8% 11.7% 14.1% 13.9% 15.1% 15.0%
France Telecom € 17.46 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 33.7% 34.0% 34.2% 34.9% 35.0% 59.3% 67.6% 70.2% 67.8% 63.7% 116.2% 115.0% 127.7% 119.7% 113.6% 13.2% 13.5% 11.6% 12.3% 12.8%
KPN € 11.99 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 31.8% 35.7% 35.1% 38.3% 41.8% 46.5% 55.5% 54.0% 58.1% 62.2% 142.1% 127.8% 122.4% 132.0% 137.9% 13.7% 13.3% 13.7% 13.0% 12.2%
OTE € 10.15 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 25.0% 44.1% 47.8% 48.4% 48.6% 34.0% 79.1% 88.6% 83.3% 76.1% 106.5% 126.2% 123.0% 115.9% 119.7% 17.4% 15.0% 15.5% 15.5% 14.6%
Portugal Telecom € 8.45 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 31.3% 47.8% 39.0% 39.9% 43.1% 49.5% 104.8% 70.5% 68.7% 65.5% 124.9% 141.1% 112.5% 108.8% 110.7% 14.6% 13.4% 18.3% 17.5% 16.6%
Swisscom CHF 390.50 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.6 31.0% 37.9% 30.8% 30.2% 29.4% 45.3% 61.6% 44.9% 40.8% 36.5% 98.1% 104.8% 103.1% 111.0% 114.6% 18.3% 16.8% 15.9% 15.0% 14.4%
Telecom Italia € 1.05 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.5 46.6% 60.0% 61.1% 59.3% 59.1% 94.3% 172.6% 182.3% 159.8% 149.9% 106.3% 110.2% 129.1% 134.5% 139.8% 17.6% 17.8% 15.9% 14.8% 13.7%
Telefonica € 18.52 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 29.6% 37.4% 33.3% 34.2% 35.8% 42.9% 61.7% 51.3% 50.2% 49.5% 131.0% 115.1% 120.6% 120.8% 121.9% 12.8% 13.6% 12.9% 12.5% 12.0%
Telekom Austria € 10.00 2.4 3.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 33.5% 46.1% 45.5% 46.2% 47.0% 50.4% 85.4% 83.5% 79.6% 75.5% 128.5% 143.6% 145.4% 122.2% 118.8% 17.3% 15.6% 14.6% 16.9% 16.9%
Telenor NOK 79.45 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.8 15.7% 41.5% 20.8% 19.8% 21.9% 17.2% 54.9% 22.6% 21.3% 18.3% 74.8% 80.8% 100.3% 71.6% 92.0% 20.7% 18.2% 17.9% 21.7% 17.3%
TeliaSonera SEK 50.35 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.8 14.5% 32.3% 22.0% 20.1% 17.9% 12.5% 27.8% 19.1% 16.1% 12.9% 87.8% 76.6% 89.8% 87.1% 87.9% 14.0% 15.2% 12.7% 13.1% 12.8%
Vodafone £ 1.37 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 24.0% 41.2% 42.4% 44.6% 45.4% 24.3% 46.4% 48.0% 47.2% 43.1% 127.3% 97.9% 134.1% 141.6% 145.9% 13.2% 17.0% 14.1% 13.2% 12.0%
Sector 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 35.2% 41.0% 39.4% 40.1% 41.2% 43.1% 68.4% 63.8% 61.3% 58.4% 120.0% 110.1% 123.5% 119.6% 121.5% 14.0% 14.9% 13.7% 13.9% 13.4%

ROE ROA Pre-tax RoCE EV / IC FCF / Sales

Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Belgacom € 26.01 37.9% 36.8% 35.8% 31.6% 30.0% 67.6% 66.8% 66.9% 62.9% 62.6% 27.6% 26.5% 25.5% 24.5% 24.7% 2.9 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 18.5% 16.3% 17.1% 15.3% 15.6%
BT Group £ 1.46 39.9% 5.1% 1518.5% 208.8% 82.1% 36.6% 8.3% 27.1% 28.3% 28.8% 21.7% 4.8% 16.1% 16.6% 16.4% 2.6 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 8.8% 4.2% 9.6% 10.3% 10.2%
Deutsche Telekom € 10.11 6.4% 8.0% 8.8% 9.3% 9.7% 18.4% 20.6% 21.8% 20.5% 20.8% 7.4% 8.3% 8.7% 8.5% 8.8% nm 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 11.4% 12.5% 11.5% 11.4% 11.7%
France Telecom € 17.46 21.7% 15.2% 16.5% 16.0% 15.2% 51.1% 52.7% 60.3% 66.0% 67.3% 15.1% 15.1% 15.4% 15.4% 15.2% 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 15.0% 15.8% 16.4% 15.4% 14.5%
KPN € 11.99 33.5% 33.0% 46.9% 56.7% 68.5% 42.6% 46.9% 54.6% 54.3% 53.4% 14.4% 14.3% 16.8% 18.2% 19.3% 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 37.3% 17.5% 18.1% 19.0% 19.3%
OTE € 10.15 23.8% 38.4% 38.9% 37.3% 38.8% 19.9% 21.7% 22.4% 22.9% 23.7% 14.2% 15.0% 15.1% 15.5% 15.8% 2.3 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 7.6% 10.5% 14.5% 14.5% 16.1%
Portugal Telecom € 8.45 42.8% 80.8% 150.2% 126.9% 116.3% 58.6% 62.8% 47.0% nm nm 13.4% 13.8% 10.9% 12.3% 12.9% 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 16.0% 13.3% 12.6% 13.0% 13.9%
Swisscom CHF 390.50 525.7% 203.1% 33.4% 29.0% 26.6% 112.4% 69.7% 34.1% 34.4% 34.9% 25.2% 19.0% 15.9% 16.1% 16.4% 3.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 15.1% 16.1% 18.8% 19.3% 19.4%
Telecom Italia € 1.05 9.4% 9.2% 7.3% 6.9% 7.4% 51.6% 48.4% 49.2% 59.9% 80.3% 10.2% 9.2% 9.0% 9.2% 10.0% 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 12.9% 16.2% 15.0% 16.0% 17.1%
Telefonica € 18.52 45.8% 40.5% 43.5% 45.1% 41.2% 63.8% 69.9% 82.1% 120.9% 120.3% 17.5% 18.8% 19.0% 20.0% 20.5% 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.5 19.0% 17.9% 17.8% 18.2% 18.8%
Telekom Austria € 10.00 17.6% -1.8% 18.9% 20.7% 22.8% 28.0% 6.4% 44.1% 39.6% 39.0% 11.4% 2.1% 12.9% 12.9% 14.0% 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 16.4% 7.3% 16.8% 15.3% 15.6%
Telenor NOK 79.45 25.4% 20.0% 13.7% 12.7% 11.7% 33.4% 36.4% 27.8% 21.1% 17.7% 17.7% 17.9% 13.0% 12.9% 12.4% 2.1 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 7.8% 9.7% 9.7% 4.5% 8.7%
TeliaSonera SEK 50.35 12.7% 15.1% 15.0% 13.8% 13.5% 36.6% 44.4% 50.3% 50.6% 52.7% 14.7% 15.4% 16.0% 16.7% 17.1% 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 12.3% 11.2% 13.7% 13.5% 14.0%
Vodafone £ 1.37 9.1% 11.0% 8.9% 8.7% 8.8% 66.3% 59.7% 52.0% 67.3% 109.4% 9.7% 14.2% 8.1% 8.2% 8.6% 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 17.0% 15.8% 14.8% 15.0% 15.6%
Sector 16.3% 14.9% 14.8% 14.7% 14.6% 49.1% 43.9% 45.7% 50.3% nm 12.5% 13.1% 11.9% 12.1% 12.5% 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 15.1% 14.2% 14.6% 14.5% 15.0%

Source: UBS estimates & Reuters. Prices and data are in local currency; prices as of 13/01/10
Other EMEA telecoms - (1) Valuation
EV/EBITDA 2008-11E Current Target % Mkt Cap Absolute performance Rel to DJS Telecoms
Price 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* Price Price diff Rating loc. bn €bn $bn Freefloat 1m 2m 3m 12m YTD 1m 2m 3m 12m YTD
Bezeq ILS 9.44 5.8 6.3 6.7 6.9 8.5% 9.4 12.0 27.1% Buy (CBE) ILS 25.1 4.7 6.8 66% 8.5% 11.8% 13.6% 55.8% 55.0% 9.8% 12.5% 10.2% 48.8% 45.8%
Cellcom $ 32.30 2.2 5.9 6.5 6.8 1.0% 32.3 32.0 -0.9% Buy $ 11.7 2.2 3.2 20% 2.6% 5.0% 2.2% 51.1% 46.2% 3.9% 5.7% -1.1% 44.1% 36.9%
Magyar Telekom HUF 747.0 3.3 4.4 5.0 5.4 -3.7% 747.0 600.0 -19.7% Sell HUF 774.8 2.9 4.2 41% 1.4% -1.2% -11.6% 35.3% 39.1% 2.6% -0.5% -14.9% 28.3% 29.9%
Millicom $ 562.00 4.9 6.5 5.8 5.2 7.7% 562.0 460.0 -18.1% Neutral (CBE) $ 8.7 6.0 8.6 64% 4.7% 13.7% 9.6% 62.9% 56.3% 5.9% 14.3% 6.2% 55.9% 47.1%
Mobily SAR 46.50 8.0 9.6 8.1 7.3 13.9% 46.5 49.0 5.4% Buy SAR 32.6 6.0 8.7 40% 11.2% 5.4% 12.0% 52.0% 50.0% 12.5% 6.1% 8.7% 45.0% 40.8%
MobiNil EGP 237.73 4.2 5.7 5.6 5.8 6.6% 237.7 250.0 5.2% Neutral (CBE) EGP 23.8 3.01 4.36 30% -0.1% 19.6% 8.1% 71.3% 61.9% 1.2% 20.3% 4.7% 64.3% 52.7%
MTS $ 50.91 2.8 6.4 5.0 4.9 1.1% 50.9 65.0 27.7% Buy (CBE) $ 20.3 14.0 20.3 47% 6.7% 1.5% -0.8% 88.1% 90.8% 7.9% 2.1% -4.1% 81.1% 81.6%
Orascom $ 25.50 4.4 4.5 4.2 3.8 2.3% 25.5 24.0 -5.9% Sell (CBE) $ 4.5 3.1 4.4 49% -6.6% -19.2% -24.8% -2.3% -6.6% -5.3% -18.5% -28.1% -9.3% -15.8%
Partner Comms ILS 74.6 4.9 5.9 7.4 7.7 -2.9% 74.6 73.0 -2.1% Neutral (CBE) ILS 11.2 2.1 3.0 48% 2.2% 7.8% 0.2% 19.7% 20.7% 3.4% 8.5% -3.1% 12.7% 11.5%
Q-Tel QAR 147 5.6 5.8 5.2 4.9 9.4% 147.0 200.0 36.1% Buy R 21.6 4 6 45% 2.5% 0.3% 1.3% 34.2% 33.6% 3.8% 0.9% -2.0% 27.2% 24.4%
Saudi Telecom SAR 44.7 6.5 5.6 5.8 6.1 5.4% 44.7 45.0 0.7% Neutral SAR 89.4 16.4 23.8 17% 1.6% -4.3% -11.0% -14.4% -9.0% 2.9% -3.6% -14.4% -21.5% -18.2%
Telecom Egypt EGP 19.3 3.8 3.5 3.5 4.0 6.2% 19.3 24.0 24.4% Buy EGP 32.9 4.2 6.0 20% 5.6% 10.1% 4.6% 25.4% 18.6% 6.9% 10.8% 1.3% 18.4% 9.4%
Telefonica O2 CR CZK 432.8 4.8 5.2 6.2 6.8 -4.2% 432.8 430.0 -0.6% Neutral CZK 139.4 5.3 7.7 31% 2.3% 1.4% -1.1% -4.2% 1.8% 3.6% 2.1% -4.5% -11.3% -7.4%
Telkom ZAX 3335.0 6.7 2.9 3.9 3.7 -6.4% 3,335.0 3,500.0 4.9% Sell ZAX 17.0 1.6 2.3 55% -2.8% -18.2% -20.7% -45.3% -44.1% -1.5% -17.5% -24.0% -52.3% -53.3%
TPSA PLN 16.5 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.9 -7.2% 16.5 16.0 -2.7% Neutral PLN 22.7 5.6 8.1 49% -0.7% 0.2% -0.3% -19.0% -14.3% 0.6% 0.9% -3.7% -26.0% -23.5%
Turk Telekom TRY 5.1 4.5 5.4 5.5 5.9 -5.1% 5.1 3.5 -31.4% Sell TRY 17.9 8.5 12.3 15% 17.0% 10.4% 9.9% 37.1% 46.6% 18.3% 11.1% 6.6% 30.1% 37.3%
Turkcell $ 19.3 3.8 7.2 7.2 7.2 -5.3% 19.3 17.0 -11.9% Neutral (CBE) $ 17.0 11.7 17.0 34% 22.2% 16.5% 6.5% 50.5% 32.4% 23.5% 17.2% 3.2% 43.5% 23.2%
Vimpelcom $ 20.3 3.1 6.2 5.2 5.0 2.6% 20.3 26.0 28.2% Buy (CBE) $ 20.5 14.2 20.5 25% 12.4% -2.8% 5.0% 163.0% 183.2% 13.6% -2.2% 1.7% 156.0% 174.0%
Vodacom ZAX 5384.0 nm 5.3 5.1 4.9 8.8% 5,384.0 6,200.0 15.2% Buy ZAX 8011.1 7.4 10.8 35% 0.0% -3.9% 1.6% nm nm 1.3% -3.2% -1.8% nm nm
Wataniya KWD 1.5 5.9 4.5 4.8 5.0 2.7% 1.5 1.5 -5.8% Neutral KWD 0.8 1.9 2.7 28% 1.3% 10.0% 1.3% -12.5% -18.1% 2.6% 10.7% -2.0% -19.5% -27.3%
Zain KWD 1.0 8.2 6.6 5.8 5.2 23.0% 1.0 1.1 8.1% Buy KWD 4.3 10.3 14.8 63% -2.9% -4.8% -27.2% 19.3% 17.9% -1.7% -4.1% -30.6% 12.3% 8.6%
Zain KSA SAR 10.2 -21.7 -78.3 3,395.4 21.7 nm 10.2 10.0 -2.0% Sell SAR 14.3 2.6 3.8 45% 0.5% -2.4% -6.4% -9.7% -4.2% 1.8% -1.7% -9.8% -16.7% -13.4%
Sector 4.5 5.7 5.5 5.4 3.3% 138 199 -1.3% -0.7% 3.3% 7.0% 9.2%

EV/OpFCF 2008-11E EV/FCF 2008-11E Revenue growth EBITDA growth 2008-11E OpFCF growth 2008-11E
Price 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR*
Bezeq ILS 9.44 10.2 10.3 9.3 8.8 20.8% 14.2 14.4 12.6 11.7 23.0% -11.2% 3.6% 1.8% 0.9% 2.1% -1.1% 10.4% 8.1% 7.0% 8.5% -19.7% 18.7% 27.8% 16.2% 20.8%
Cellcom $ 32.30 2.9 7.5 8.9 9.3 -1.0% 4.0 9.9 11.8 12.2 1.0% 6.1% 1.0% 1.4% 2.0% 1.5% 15.6% 3.5% -2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 24.0% 4.4% -8.9% 2.1% -1.0%
Magyar Telekom HUF 747.0 5.9 7.5 8.4 9.3 -3.0% 7.4 9.5 10.7 11.8 -3.1% -0.5% -4.0% -2.8% -1.1% -2.6% 10.0% -5.8% -3.5% -1.8% -3.7% 8.2% -2.3% -3.6% -3.2% -3.0%
Millicom $ 562.00 -1,613.3 13.6 10.6 8.9 nm -2,684.0 19.1 14.7 12.4 nm 30.0% -1.8% 9.2% 5.2% 4.1% 32.9% 5.5% 12.4% 5.4% 7.7% 74.9% 16552.4% 27.6% 14.3% 524.0%
Mobily SAR 46.50 -36.8 29.9 21.4 15.9 nm -36.9 30.7 22.0 16.3 nm 27.9% 18.4% 15.3% 14.0% 15.9% 29.0% 8.8% 17.2% 15.8% 13.9% -388.4% 261.1% 38.2% 41.1% 91.7%
MobiNil EGP 237.73 -57.8 11.6 12.9 9.6 nm -72.4 14.5 16.1 12.0 nm 22.0% 8.3% 9.1% 7.7% 8.4% 26.5% 8.7% 6.8% 4.2% 6.6% -175.5% 837.3% -5.1% 43.3% 133.6%
MTS $ 50.91 nm nm 9.2 8.4 2.0% nm nm 11.7 10.6 3.8% 24.1% -16.3% 32.1% 5.1% 5.1% 21.7% -22.3% 28.2% 3.9% 1.1% 8.5% -21.3% 21.7% 10.9% 2.0%
Orascom $ 25.50 16.6 9.0 8.1 6.0 36.2% 29.8 14.1 12.8 9.4 42.3% 12.9% -4.2% 6.7% 6.4% 2.8% 16.7% -5.7% 6.1% 6.8% 2.3% 66.9% 76.6% 9.1% 31.1% 36.2%
Partner Comms ILS 74.6 6.2 9.1 9.7 10.0 -3.6% 8.7 12.2 13.0 13.2 -1.8% 3.1% -5.0% 1.6% 1.0% -0.8% 21.1% -9.3% -1.7% 2.7% -2.9% 29.5% -25.1% 14.9% 4.0% -3.6%
Q-Tel QAR 147 19.4 14.0 11.8 10.2 29.4% 26.7 17.9 15.1 13.2 32.2% 95.9% 20.3% 11.5% 9.0% 13.5% 95.9% 15.3% 8.6% 4.7% 9.4% 260.2% 63.2% 17.1% 13.3% 29.4%
Saudi Telecom SAR 44.7 33.7 8.7 9.0 9.5 57.5% 36.3 9.4 9.7 10.2 57.4% 37.7% 10.8% 3.6% 3.1% 5.8% 21.4% 11.4% 3.0% 2.0% 5.4% -53.1% 268.7% 3.9% 1.9% 57.5%
Telecom Egypt EGP 19.3 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.6 1.7% 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.8 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% 5.5% -4.1% 0.8% -11.1% 20.8% 5.7% -6.0% 6.2% -9.6% 10.8% 3.1% -8.0% 1.7%
Telefonica O2 CR CZK 432.8 6.4 7.2 8.8 9.8 -6.7% 8.4 9.3 11.5 12.8 -6.1% 2.6% -7.3% -3.2% -1.5% -4.0% -0.7% -6.1% -6.5% 0.1% -4.2% -6.6% -8.8% -10.0% -1.0% -6.7%
Telkom ZAX 3335.0 -275.9 11.8 14.2 12.9 nm -384.5 19.9 20.8 18.6 nm -36.1% 4.8% -1.2% 2.3% 1.9% -38.5% -22.5% 1.6% 4.3% -6.4% -103.4% 897.8% 11.9% 10.6% 131.1%
TPSA PLN 16.5 8.1 6.3 8.6 9.3 -7.4% 9.6 7.8 10.6 11.4 -8.7% -0.4% -8.7% -3.6% -2.1% -4.8% -1.2% -17.0% -3.0% -0.7% -7.2% -14.5% 7.6% -24.8% -2.0% -7.4%
Turk Telekom TRY 5.1 7.2 9.9 9.0 9.6 -5.7% 9.4 13.7 11.2 12.1 -4.2% 9.0% -13.4% 1.7% 0.7% -3.9% 4.1% -15.5% 2.5% -1.4% -5.1% -9.1% -26.1% 15.7% -1.9% -5.7%
Turkcell $ 19.3 4.9 29.2 12.8 10.2 -8.0% 6.5 36.5 16.0 12.8 -6.5% 10.1% -16.7% 1.3% 3.8% -4.3% -1.8% -22.4% 5.5% 3.7% -5.3% -4.1% -75.0% 140.9% 29.3% -8.0%
Vimpelcom $ 20.3 5.4 8.5 8.1 7.8 6.3% 7.8 10.9 10.3 9.9 11.4% 41.1% -13.7% 21.2% 7.3% 3.9% 35.1% -14.0% 19.0% 5.7% 2.6% 21.8% 10.4% 3.3% 5.3% 6.3%
Vodacom ZAX 5384.0 nm 8.2 8.7 8.3 62.1% nm 12.9 12.8 11.9 69.7% 14.5% 8.9% 5.2% 6.7% 6.9% 1.7% 15.9% 5.1% 5.8% 8.8% -66.4% 314.8% -3.8% 6.7% 62.1%
Wataniya KWD 1.5 16.4 10.0 11.5 8.9 19.3% 19.2 12.0 12.1 9.4 23.6% 16.8% 5.3% 5.4% 4.9% 5.2% 24.7% 3.5% -0.3% 4.9% 2.7% 127.6% 29.4% -7.2% 41.6% 19.3%
Zain KWD 1.0 -50.8 13.4 11.8 11.6 nm -58.9 15.7 13.9 13.6 nm 19.4% 19.8% 11.0% 14.3% 15.0% -0.5% 46.3% 11.8% 13.7% 23.0% -67.2% 544.7% 13.0% 4.4% 96.6%
Zain KSA SAR 10.2 -7.3 -15.5 -18.5 -55.9 nm -7.3 -15.5 -18.5 -55.9 nm nm nm 65.4% 41.8% nm nm 70.8% 102.5% 16360.5% 728.8% nm 50.3% 9.6% 65.3% 39.6%
Sector 11.5 10.2 9.7 9.2 18.3% 11.5 10.2 9.7 9.2 18.3% 14.8% -0.8% 7.9% 5.0% 4.0% 11.9% -2.4% 8.1% 4.4% 3.3% -10.4% 39.8% 8.8% 8.7% 18.3%

P/E (adj) 2008-11E Dividend yield 2008-11E EBITDA margin Net debt/EBITDA EPS growth 2008-11E
Price 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR*
Bezeq ILS 9.44 13.8 11.4 11.1 9.2 14.3% 9.4% 14.5% 13.1% 10.8% 5.0% 33.4% 37.2% 39.7% 42.1% 44.6% 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 34.3% 20.9% 2.9% 20.2% 14.3%
Cellcom $ 32.30 12.0 9.9 9.9 9.3 8.8% 9.3% 9.6% 9.6% 10.2% 3.2% 34.8% 38.0% 38.9% 37.6% 37.4% 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 10.5% 21.8% -0.3% 6.1% 8.8%
Magyar Telekom HUF 747.0 8.4 10.1 9.8 9.8 -5.0% 9.9% 9.9% 9.6% 9.6% -0.9% 36.0% 39.9% 39.1% 38.8% 38.6% 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 54.6% -16.7% 2.7% 0.3% -5.0%
Millicom $ 562.00 14.3 15.4 13.7 13.2 2.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 6.6% 39.7% 40.6% 43.6% 44.9% 45.0% 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 -0.2 30.3% -7.5% 12.2% 3.8% 2.5%
Mobily SAR 46.50 11.1 17.6 14.0 11.5 -1.2% 1.1% 1.6% 2.8% 7.1% 87.9% 34.9% 35.2% 32.4% 32.9% 33.4% 2.8 2.2 1.7 1.2 0.9 51.6% -36.8% 25.5% 21.6% -1.2%
MobiNil EGP 237.73 12.0 11.7 10.1 9.8 7.0% 4.3% 5.1% 5.1% 8.0% 22.8% 45.1% 46.8% 47.0% 46.0% 44.5% 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 18.6% 3.3% 15.9% 2.2% 7.0%
MTS $ 50.91 10.8 14.1 10.1 9.1 5.7% 5.5% 5.6% 4.3% 6.0% 3.1% 51.2% 50.2% 46.6% 45.2% 44.6% 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.5 -6.7% -23.3% 40.0% 10.0% 5.7%
Orascom $ 25.50 10.6 15.3 15.1 10.8 -0.5% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 4.6% 7.9% 43.3% 44.7% 44.1% 43.8% 44.0% 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.7 -0.1% -30.4% 1.1% 39.7% -0.5%
Partner Comms ILS 74.6 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.0 0.8% 7.3% 8.4% 16.4% 10.0% 11.1% 32.6% 38.3% 36.6% 35.4% 36.0% 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 21.6% -2.2% -0.8% 5.7% 0.8%
Q-Tel QAR 147 9.5 9.2 7.8 7.1 10.2% 2.6% 6.8% 3.3% 3.8% 14.5% 47.4% 47.4% 45.4% 44.2% 42.5% 3.7 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.6 36.0% 3.3% 17.1% 10.7% 10.2%
Saudi Telecom SAR 44.7 8.1 8.6 8.3 8.3 -0.9% 8.4% 10.5% 10.8% 10.8% 8.8% 48.5% 42.8% 43.0% 42.8% 42.3% 0.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 -8.1% -6.0% 3.6% -0.2% -0.9%
Telecom Egypt EGP 19.3 11.8 10.5 9.1 9.2 8.6% 5.6% 6.7% 10.4% 11.4% 26.4% 50.0% 43.9% 52.3% 52.4% 51.3% 0.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 9.9% 12.5% 14.7% -0.8% 8.6%
Telefonica O2 CR CZK 432.8 12.5 12.7 13.7 13.1 -1.6% 11.6% 11.6% 10.4% 10.4% -3.5% 44.5% 43.0% 43.6% 42.1% 42.7% 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 7.3% -1.6% -6.9% 4.2% -1.6%
Telkom ZAX 3335.0 3.2 6.7 6.3 6.3 -20.5% 3.4% 3.7% 4.0% 4.3% 7.9% 36.9% 35.5% 26.2% 27.0% 27.5% 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 -35.7% -52.2% 5.9% -0.6% -20.5%
TPSA PLN 16.5 10.1 15.9 16.4 16.0 -14.2% 9.3% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% -0.7% 42.3% 42.0% 38.2% 38.4% 39.0% 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 -0.9% -36.5% -3.0% 2.3% -14.2%
Turk Telekom TRY 5.1 9.8 10.4 10.3 9.7 0.3% 16.9% 9.3% 8.3% 9.1% -18.6% 44.6% 42.6% 41.6% 41.9% 41.0% 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 -34.7% -5.9% 0.8% 6.2% 0.3%
Turkcell $ 19.3 9.2 13.0 12.3 12.1 -8.5% 3.3% 4.2% 4.6% 4.9% 14.2% 41.5% 37.0% 34.5% 35.9% 35.9% -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 36.0% -29.0% 5.9% 1.7% -8.5%
Vimpelcom $ 20.3 34.0 14.9 10.1 8.6 58.2% 2.9% 0.0% 4.0% 5.9% 27.5% 50.2% 48.0% 47.9% 47.0% 46.3% 0.5 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.6 -56.3% 128.4% 47.6% 17.4% 58.2%
Vodacom ZAX 5384.0 12.9 10.2 8.8 8.4 15.6% 0.0% 4.3% 5.1% 5.4% nm 34.0% 30.2% 32.2% 32.1% 31.9% 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 -21.0% 26.2% 15.5% 5.9% 15.6%
Wataniya KWD 1.5 9.4 10.7 10.1 8.9 1.8% 3.2% 3.2% 9.3% 9.9% 45.1% 34.5% 36.8% 36.2% 34.3% 34.3% 0.9 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 2.1% -12.2% 6.4% 13.0% 1.8%
Zain KWD 1.0 11.8 14.5 10.2 8.4 12.0% 4.4% 5.0% 5.6% 6.8% 15.8% 41.0% 34.2% 41.7% 42.0% 41.8% 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.1 0.8 -27.1% -18.2% 41.5% 21.3% 12.0%
Zain KSA SAR 10.2 -7.7 -5.8 -6.5 -13.3 nm 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% nm nm -250.4% -8.2% 0.1% 14.4% nm -10.0 -39.7 1844.8 12.3 nm -32.6% 11.2% 50.9% -16.7%
Sector 11.2 12.0 10.4 9.6 5.1% 5.7% 5.8% 6.7% 7.4% nm 42.6% 41.5% 40.8% 40.9% 40.6% 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 -5.5% -6.9% 14.9% 8.5% 5.1%

Source: UBS estimates, unless otherwise stated. * Growth rates for underlying financial quantities, not the multiples; prices as of 13/01/10 ** Relative performance is calculated as 'stock return - index return' *** Absolute performance returns are the % change in price over the period
Other EMEA telecoms - (2) Valuation evolution
Adj. PE 2009 forecasts at month end Sector Adj. PE 1 year forward at month end
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10
Bezeq ILS 9.44 12.1 12.4 ▲ 12.7 ▲ 14.5 ▲ 10.3 ▼ 10.6 ▲ 10.5 10.5 10.8 ▲ 10.4 ▼ 11.6 ▲ 11.4
Cellcom $ 32.30 9.7 9.8 ▲ 10.0 ▲ 10.6 ▲ 9.8 ▼ 10.0 10.2 ▲ 10.4 ▲ 10.3 9.7 ▼ 10.1 ▲ 9.9 ▼
Magyar Telekom HUF 747.0 6.3 6.2 6.7 ▲ 7.8 ▲ 7.7 9.2 ▲ 10.4 ▲ 10.8 ▲ 10.9 9.8 ▼ 9.9 10.1 ▲
Millicom $ 562.00 6.8 6.4 ▼ 8.4 ▲ 10.3 ▲ 9.6 ▼ 13.4 ▲ 12.5 ▼ 13.0 ▲ 12.7 ▼ 14.3 ▲ 14.4 15.4 ▲
Mobily SAR 46.50 13.4 13.1 ▼ 14.4 ▲ 13.8 ▼ 13.3 ▼ 14.4 ▲ 14.2 15.7 ▲ 16.7 ▲ 16.1 ▼ 16.4 ▲ 17.6 ▲
MobiNil EGP 237.73 8.9 8.7 ▼ 12.1 ▲ 11.2 ▼ 11.4 ▲ 12.7 ▲ 12.6 9.8 ▼ 9.3 ▼ 8.6 ▼ 11.8 ▲ 11.7 17
MSCI Europe Alternative carriers
MTS $ 50.91 8.6 11.0 ▲ 10.8 ▼ 13.5 ▲ 12.0 ▼ 13.7 ▲ 13.6 14.9 ▲ 11.3 ▼ 13.8 ▲ 13.5 ▼ 14.1 ▲
15
Orascom $ 25.50 8.6 12.1 ▲ 14.6 ▲ 15.4 ▲ 13.9 ▼ 18.0 ▲ 17.2 ▼ 17.7 ▲ 19.4 ▲ 14.4 ▼ 13.8 ▼ 15.3 ▲
Partner Comms ILS 74.6 10.3 10.6 ▲ 11.7 ▲ 10.5 ▼ 10.5 11.4 ▲ 10.4 ▼ 10.2 9.5 ▼ 9.9 ▲ 10.7 ▲ 10.4 ▼ 13
Q-Tel QAR 147 6.7 6.5 ▼ 6.7 ▲ 7.9 ▲ 8.6 ▲ 9.3 ▲ 9.5 ▲ 9.3 10.1 ▲ 9.3 ▼ 9.0 ▼ 9.2 ▲
11
Saudi Telecom SAR 44.7 7.0 7.7 ▲ 9.5 ▲ 10.1 ▲ 9.9 9.7 ▼ 9.1 ▼ 9.7 ▲ 8.9 ▼ 9.0 ▲ 8.5 ▼ 8.6
Telecom Egypt EGP 19.3 8.7 10.6 ▲ 11.3 ▲ 10.4 ▼ 9.2 ▼ 10.5 ▲ 10.7 ▲ 10.3 ▼ 9.9 ▼ 8.7 ▼ 9.9 ▲ 10.5 ▲ 9
Telefonica O2 CR CZK 432.8 10.4 11.3 ▲ 12.1 ▲ 12.5 ▲ 12.6 14.6 ▲ 14.7 12.7 ▼ 12.7 12.5 ▼ 12.3 12.7 ▲
Telkom ZAX 3335.0
7
3.0 3.2 ▲ 3.3 ▲ 2.2 ▼ 5.5 ▲ 5.6 6.3 ▲ 6.3 6.3 6.7 ▲ 6.7 6.7

May-07

Nov-07

May-08

Nov-08

May-09

Nov-09
Jan-07

Mar-07

Jul-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

Mar-09
Jul-08

Jul-09

Sep-09

Jan-10
TPSA PLN 16.5 10.9 11.5 ▲ 20.4 ▲ 19.3 ▼ 17.8 ▼ 15.8 ▼ 17.1 ▲ 16.7 ▼ 17.8 ▲ 16.8 ▼ 15.3 ▼ 15.9 ▲
Turk Telekom TRY 5.1 6.5 8.2 ▲ 9.7 ▲ 9.7 11.0 ▲ 10.7 ▼ 10.7 8.9 ▼ 9.0 8.5 ▼ 9.0 ▲ 10.4 ▲
Turkcell $ 19.3 8.6 9.3 ▲ 11.5 ▲ 12.0 ▲ 12.5 ▲ 14.3 ▲ 10.9 ▼ 12.1 ▲ 11.1 ▼ 10.4 ▼ 11.8 ▲ 13.0 ▲
Vimpelcom $ 20.3 9.6 11.9 ▲ 13.5 ▲ 18.4 ▲ 16.6 ▼ 19.1 ▲ 13.4 ▼ 16.2 ▲ 12.4 ▼ 14.0 ▲ 13.7 ▼ 14.9 ▲
Vodacom ZAX 5384.0 7.8 8.6 ▲ 8.8 ▲ 8.6 ▼ 8.4 ▼ 9.7 ▲ 9.7 9.6 10.2 ▲
Wataniya KWD 1.5 8.3 10.8 ▲ 10.7 11.2 ▲ 11.9 ▲ 11.7 ▼ 11.0 ▼ 10.6 ▼ 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.7
Zain KWD 1.0 6.7 7.3 ▲ 8.2 ▲ 10.6 ▲ 13.4 ▲ 14.3 ▲ 17.2 ▲ 15.1 ▼ 13.5 ▼ 11.2 ▼ 14.9 ▲ 14.5 ▼
Zain KSA SAR 10.2 -6.2 -5.8 ▲ -6.2 ▼ -7.1 ▼ -6.7 ▲ -6.2 ▲ -6.0 ▲ -6.2 ▼ -6.1 -5.9 ▲ -5.8 ▲ -5.8 Source: UBS Quantitative Research, Data Solutions Team
Sector 7.8 8.8 ▲ 10.4 ▲ 11.4 ▲ 11.2 ▼ 12.3 ▲ 12.0 ▼ 12.1 11.3 ▼ 11.2 11.6 ▲ 12.0 ▲

Dividend yield 2009 forecasts at month end Sector Dividend yield 1 year forward at month end*
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10
Bezeq ILS 9.44 10.1% 9.8% ▼ 9.4% ▼ 8.3% ▼ 9.7% ▲ 9.4% ▼ 9.4% 9.5% 9.1% ▼ 15.9% ▲ 14.3% ▼ 14.5% ▲
Cellcom $ 32.30 9.8% 9.7% ▼ 9.5% ▼ 9.0% ▼ 9.7% ▲ 9.5% 9.3% ▼ 9.1% ▼ 9.2% 9.7% ▲ 9.4% ▼ 9.6% ▲
Magyar Telekom HUF 747.0 13.5% 13.8% ▲ 14.5% ▲ 12.4% ▼ 13.0% ▲ 10.9% ▼ 9.6% ▼ 9.2% ▼ 9.1% 10.1% ▲ 10.1% 9.9% ▼
Millicom $ 562.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% ▲ 1.6% ▲
Mobily SAR 46.50 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.6% ▲ 10%
MobiNil EGP 237.73 2.1% 2.0% 1.5% ▼ 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% ▼ 1.4% 5.6% ▲ 5.9% ▲ 6.4% ▲ 5.1% ▼ 5.1% MSCI Europe Alternative carriers
MTS $ 50.91 5.9% 4.8% ▼ 4.3% ▼ 6.9% ▲ 7.7% ▲ 6.8% ▼ 6.6% ▼ 5.9% ▼ 6.3% ▲ 5.7% ▼ 5.8% 5.6% ▼ 8%
Orascom $ 25.50 5.8% 4.1% ▼ 3.4% ▼ 3.3% ▼ 3.6% ▲ 2.8% ▼ 2.9% 5.6% ▲ 5.1% ▼ 3.5% ▼ 3.6% ▲ 3.3% ▼
6%
Partner Comms ILS 74.6 7.7% 7.5% ▼ 6.8% ▼ 7.8% ▲ 7.6% ▼ 7.0% ▼ 7.7% ▲ 7.8% 8.3% ▲ 8.9% ▲ 8.2% ▼ 8.4% ▲
Q-Tel QAR 147 10.3% 10.6% ▲ 9.5% ▼ 8.1% ▼ 7.3% ▼ 6.8% ▼ 6.6% ▼ 6.7% 6.2% ▼ 6.7% ▲ 6.9% ▲ 6.8% 4%
Saudi Telecom SAR 44.7 12.9% 11.7% ▼ 9.5% ▼ 8.9% ▼ 9.1% 9.3% ▲ 9.9% ▲ 9.3% ▼ 10.2% ▲ 10.0% ▼ 10.6% ▲ 10.5%
2%
Telecom Egypt EGP 19.3 7.0% 8.8% ▲ 8.2% ▼ 8.4% ▲ 9.5% ▲ 8.4% ▼ 8.2% ▼ 8.4% ▲ 5.6% ▼ 8.1% ▲ 7.1% ▼ 6.7% ▼
Telefonica O2 CR CZK 432.8 13.3% 12.2% ▼ 11.5% ▼ 11.9% ▲ 11.8% 10.2% ▼ 10.1% 11.7% ▲ 11.7% 11.9% ▲ 11.9% 11.6% ▼ 0%
Telkom ZAX 3335.0 3.7%

May-07

Nov-07

May-08

Nov-08

May-09

Nov-09
Jan-07

Mar-07

Mar-09
Jul-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Jan-10
TPSA PLN 16.5 8.5% 8.0% ▼ 8.5% ▲ 9.0% ▲ 13.0% ▲ 10.1% ▼ 9.3% ▼ 9.5% ▲ 8.8% ▼ 9.3% ▲ 9.5% 9.1% ▼
Turk Telekom TRY 5.1 15.1% 14.9% ▼ 12.6% ▼ 12.5% 11.1% ▼ 11.4% ▲ 11.4% 10.8% ▼ 10.7% 11.3% ▲ 10.7% ▼ 9.3% ▼
Turkcell $ 19.3 7.0% 10.4% ▲ 9.9% ▼ 9.4% ▼ 9.0% ▼ 7.9% ▼ 5.0% ▼ 4.5% ▼ 4.9% ▲ 5.3% ▲ 4.6% ▼ 4.2% ▼
Vimpelcom $ 20.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vodacom ZAX 5384.0 5.7% 5.2% ▼ 5.1% 5.2% 5.3% 4.6% ▼ 4.6% 4.7% 4.3% ▼
Wataniya KWD 1.5 7.3% 5.6% ▼ 5.7% 5.4% ▼ 5.1% ▼ 3.0% ▼ 3.2% ▲ 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
Zain KWD 1.0 6.0% 7.1% ▲ 6.3% ▼ 4.9% ▼ 4.2% ▼ 3.9% ▼ 3.3% ▼ 3.8% ▲ 4.2% ▲ 5.1% ▲ 4.9% ▼ 5.0%
Zain KSA SAR 10.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Source: UBS Quantitative Research, Data Solutions Team
Sector 7.6% 7.5% 6.6% ▼ 6.5% 6.7% ▲ 6.1% ▼ 5.8% ▼ 5.8% 5.8% 6.2% ▲ 6.1% 5.8% ▼

EV/EBITDA 2009 forecasts at month end Net debt/EBITDA 2009 forecasts at month end
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10
Bezeq ILS 9.44 5.5 5.7 ▲ 5.7 6.0 ▲ 5.3 ▼ 5.6 ▲ 5.5 5.4 ▼ 5.8 ▲ 5.7 ▼ 5.9 ▲ 6.3 0.8 0.8 1.0 ▲ 1.0 1.0 ▲ 1.0 1.1 ▲ 1.1 ▼ 1.1 0.5 ▼ 0.5 ▼ 0.5
Cellcom $ 32.30 7.0 5.9 ▼ 5.6 ▼ 6.0 ▲ 5.6 ▼ 5.9 ▲ 6.0 ▲ 5.8 ▼ 5.7 ▼ 5.9 ▲ 5.9 5.9 1.3 1.4 ▲ 1.4 1.3 ▼ 1.3 ▼ 1.3 1.3 ▼ 1.2 ▼ 1.2 1.3 ▲ 1.3 1.3
Magyar Telekom HUF 747.0 3.8 3.8 ▼ 3.5 ▼ 3.8 ▲ 3.8 ▼ 4.1 ▲ 4.6 ▲ 4.6 4.7 ▲ 4.4 ▼ 4.4 4.4 ▲ 1.0 1.0 ▼ 1.0 ▲ 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Millicom $ 562.00 4.1 3.7 ▼ 4.2 ▲ 4.9 ▲ 5.1 ▲ 6.2 ▲ 6.2 6.1 ▼ 5.5 ▼ 6.3 ▲ 5.9 ▼ 6.5 ▲ 0.9 0.9 ▲ 0.9 0.9 0.8 ▼ 0.9 ▲ 0.9 0.9 0.9 ▼ 0.8 ▼ 0.3 ▼ 0.3
Mobily SAR 46.50 7.9 7.8 0.0 8.1 0.0 8.0 7.7 ▼ 8.1 ▲ 8.1 8.4 ▲ 9.4 ▲ 8.9 ▼ 9.2 ▲ 9.6 ▲ 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.7 ▲
MobiNil EGP 237.73 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 5.3 ▼ 5.2 ▼ 5.4 ▲ 5.5 ▲ 5.2 ▼ 5.2 4.8 ▼ 5.7 ▲ 5.7 1.1 1.0 ▼ 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 ▼ 1.0 1.0 1.0 ▲ 1.0
MTS $ 50.91 3.1 3.9 ▲ 4.0 ▲ 4.2 ▲ 4.3 4.6 ▲ 4.9 ▲ 5.1 ▲ 5.1 6.3 ▲ 6.1 ▼ 6.4 ▲ 0.5 0.6 ▲ 0.6 ▼ 0.7 ▲ 0.7 0.7 0.7 ▲ 0.7 0.7 ▼ 1.1 ▲ 1.1 1.1
Orascom $ 25.50 3.8 4.6 ▲ 4.8 ▲ 5.3 ▲ 4.8 ▼ 5.2 ▲ 5.5 ▲ 5.1 ▼ 5.3 ▲ 4.4 ▼ 4.5 4.5 2.1 2.3 ▲ 2.3 ▲ 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 ▼ 2.3 2.3 ▲ 2.3 2.3
Partner Comms ILS 74.6 5.9 6.2 ▲ 6.4 ▲ 6.1 ▼ 6.1 6.4 ▲ 6.1 ▼ 6.1 6.3 ▲ 5.6 ▼ 5.8 ▲ 5.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 ▼ 0.8 ▲ 0.8 0.7 ▼ 0.7 0.8 ▲ 0.8 ▼ 0.8 0.8
Q-Tel QAR 147 4.8 3.6 ▼ 4.9 ▲ 5.0 ▲ 5.4 ▲ 5.6 ▲ 5.5 ▼ 5.6 5.7 ▲ 5.5 ▼ 5.5 5.8 ▲ 1.9 1.9 2.2 ▲ 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 ▲ 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
Saudi Telecom SAR 44.7 5.3 5.4 ▲ 5.8 ▲ 6.1 ▲ 6.3 ▲ 6.1 ▼ 5.8 ▼ 6.0 ▲ 5.9 ▼ 5.8 ▼ 5.6 ▼ 5.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Telecom Egypt EGP 19.3 3.8 5.1 ▲ 5.0 ▼ 5.0 4.2 ▼ 4.4 ▲ 4.9 ▲ 4.2 ▼ 4.1 ▼ 2.4 ▼ 3.2 ▲ 3.5 ▲ 0.0 0.0 ▼ 0.0 -0.2 ▼ -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 ▲ -0.2 ▼ -0.3 ▼ -0.3 -0.3
Telefonica O2 CR CZK 432.8 5.3 5.3 4.9 ▼ 5.1 ▲ 5.1 5.7 ▲ 5.9 ▲ 5.3 ▼ 5.2 ▼ 5.0 ▼ 5.1 ▲ 5.2 ▲ -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 ▲ -0.1
Telkom ZAX 3335.0 3.8 3.7 4.0 ▲ 2.3 ▼ 2.8 ▲ 2.9 ▲ 2.9 ▲ 3.0 ▲ 3.0 3.2 ▲ 2.9 ▼ 2.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 ▲ 0.8 ▲ 0.7 ▼ 0.5 ▼ 0.5 0.5 0.5 ▼ 0.9 ▲ 0.9 0.6 ▼
TPSA PLN 16.5 4.5 4.4 ▼ 4.0 ▼ 4.5 ▲ 4.3 ▼ 4.4 4.4 4.3 ▼ 4.7 ▲ 4.2 ▼ 4.2 4.3 ▲ 0.5 0.5 0.7 ▲ 0.7 0.8 ▲ 0.7 ▼ 0.7 0.7 0.6 ▼ 0.6 0.6 ▼ 0.6
Turk Telekom TRY 5.1 4.3 ▲ 4.4 ▲ 5.0 ▲ 5.2 ▲ 4.9 ▼ 5.2 ▲ 4.8 ▼ 5.1 ▲ 4.6 ▼ 4.7 ▲ 5.4 ▲ 0.6 0.7 ▲ 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 ▼ 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Turkcell $ 19.3 4.3 4.7 ▲ 4.7 5.3 ▲ 5.8 ▲ 6.1 ▲ 6.3 ▲ 6.3 6.2 ▼ 5.5 ▼ 5.9 ▲ 7.2 ▲ -1.2 -0.8 ▲ -0.8 ▼ -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -1.0 ▼ -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0
Vimpelcom $ 20.3 3.2 3.5 ▲ 4.2 ▲ 4.6 ▲ 4.6 4.8 ▲ 5.3 ▲ 5.5 ▲ 5.5 6.0 ▲ 6.0 6.2 ▲ 1.5 1.5 1.4 ▼ 1.5 ▲ 1.5 1.5 1.2 ▼ 1.2 1.2 1.3 ▲ 1.3 1.3
Vodacom ZAX 5384.0 5.3 0.5 0.5 ▼ 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 ▲ 0.8 ▲ 0.8 1.0 ▲
Wataniya KWD 1.5 4.7 ▲ 5.0 ▲ 5.0 5.3 ▲ 4.8 ▼ 4.6 ▼ 4.5 ▼ 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 ▼ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Zain KWD 1.0 5.4 ▲ 5.3 ▼ 5.8 ▲ 7.5 ▲ 7.8 ▲ 8.8 ▲ 7.7 ▼ 7.2 ▼ 6.7 ▼ 6.6 6.6 0.9 1.4 ▲ 1.4 ▲ 1.4 1.5 ▲ 1.5 1.5 1.5 ▲ 1.5 1.5 1.6 ▲ 1.6
Zain KSA SAR 10.2 -79.6 ▲ -80.7 -86.8 ▼ -85.1 ▲ -81.4 ▲ -79.8 ▲ -80.8 -81.2 -79.1 ▲ -78.1 -78.3 -40.2 -40.2 -40.2 -40.2 -40.2 -39.7 ▲ -39.7 -39.7 -39.7 -39.7 -39.7 -39.7
Sector 5.7 5.6 ▼ 5.6 5.5 ▼ 5.5 5.7 ▲ 1.0 1.1 ▲ 1.1 ▲ 1.1 ▼ 1.1 ▲ 1.1 ▼ 1.1 ▼ 1.1 ▼ 1.1 ▲ 1.1 ▲ 1.1 ▼ 1.0 ▼

Source: UBS estimates and Reuters, unless otherwise stated; prices as of 13/01/10
*: The charts do not include Middle East Telcos and Telecom Egypt
Other EMEA telecoms - (3) Forecasts evolution
Revenue 2009 forecasts at month end 2008 Revenue growth over last 12 months
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10
Bezeq ILS 8.19 12,265 12,265 12,181 ▼ 12,181 12,322 ▲ 12,322 12,499 ▲ 12,489 ▼ 12,489 11,411 ▼ 11,411 11,411
Cellcom $ 29.20 6,158 6,177 ▲ 6,177 6,126 ▼ 6,126 6,126 6,299 ▲ 6,335 ▲ 6,335 6,484 ▲ 6,484 6,484
4% 2.5% 2.9%
Magyar Telekom HUF 760.0 650,542 650,542 646,172 ▼ 646,172 646,172 646,172 646,172 646,172 646,172 646,172 646,172 646,172 na
8% 6.8%
Millicom $ 470.00 3,899 3,899 3,896 ▼ 3,896 3,584 ▼ 3,348 ▼ 3,348 3,348 3,296 ▼ 3,357 ▲ 3,357 3,357 0% 5.3%
Mobily SAR 45.40 12,776 12,776 12,776 12,776 12,776 12,776 12,776 12,776 12,776 12,776 12,776 12,776 -0.1% -0.8% -0.2%
3.3%
4%
-4% -2.2%
MobiNil EGP 204.34 10,995 11,839 ▲ 11,839 11,839 11,839 11,839 11,839 11,252 ▼ 11,252 11,252 10,831 ▼ 10,831 -3.1%
MTS $ 47.96 7,608 7,910 ▲ 8,310 ▲ 8,310 8,310 8,310 8,465 ▲ 8,465 8,465 8,580 ▲ 8,580 8,580 -8% -6.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
0% -8.8%
Orascom $ 32.55 5,652 5,180 ▼ 5,051 ▼ 5,051 5,051 5,051 5,051 5,153 ▲ 5,153 5,102 ▼ 5,102 5,102 -12% -9.4%
-0.7% -0.2%
-0.8%
Partner Comms ILS 70.9 6,221 6,221 6,221 5,627 ▼ 5,563 ▼ 5,563 5,772 ▲ 5,772 5,860 ▲ 5,989 ▲ 5,989 5,989 na
-16%
-4% -2.5%
Q-Tel QAR 156 25,361 25,361 25,278 ▼ 25,278 25,278 25,278 24,448 ▼ 24,448 24,448 24,448 24,448 24,448 -3.7% -3.6%
Saudi Telecom SAR 45.8 52,586 52,586 52,586 52,586 52,586 52,586 52,586 52,586 52,586 52,586 52,586 52,586 -20% .
-17.7%
-5.6%
-8% -7.0% -6.3%
Telecom Egypt EGP 17.2 10,211 9,864 ▼ 9,864 10,158 ▲ 10,158 10,158 10,158 10,498 ▲ 10,498 10,254 ▼ 10,254 10,254
-24%
Telefonica O2 CR CZK 423.0 63,454 63,454 63,454 61,761 ▼ 61,761 61,761 61,761 61,761 61,761 61,761 59,921 ▼ 59,921 -9.7%
Telkom ZAX 4185.0 71,293 71,293 71,293 70,673 ▼ 38,066 ▼ 37,914 ▼ 37,914 37,914 37,473 ▼ 38,553 ▲ 38,553 38,018 ▼ -28%
-12%

TPSA PLN 16.7 17,705 17,705 16,764 ▼ 16,764 16,764 16,764 16,764 16,764 16,862 ▲ 16,862 16,586 ▼ 16,586 -32%
-13.9%
Turk Telekom TRY 4.6 6,524 6,151 ▼ 6,151 6,151 6,151 6,151 6,151 6,740 ▲ 6,740 6,740 6,740 6,740 -16%
-36%
Turkcell $ 16.7 5,853 5,331 ▼ 5,122 ▼ 5,122 5,122 5,122 5,806 ▲ 5,806 5,806 5,806 5,806 5,806
Vimpelcom $ 18.8 8,170 8,170 8,644 ▲ 8,907 ▲ 8,907 8,907 8,921 ▲ 8,921 8,921 8,728 ▼ 8,728 8,728 -40%
-20%

Vimpelcom
TPSA

Telkom
Bezeq

Partner

MobiNil

Turkcell

MTS
Cellcom

Millicom

Orascom
Magyar

O2 CR

Vimpelcom

Turk Telekom
TPSA

Saudi Telecom

Telecom Egypt
Bezeq

Partner

MobiNil

Turkcell

MTS

Q-Tel
Cellcom

Millicom

Orascom
Magyar

Zain

Zain KSA
O2 CR

Mobily
Wataniya
Vodacom ZAX 5178.0 66,828 ▼ 66,828 66,828 66,828 66,828 60,408 ▼ 62,464 ▲ 62,464 60,101 ▼
Wataniya KWD 1.5 514 514 514 514 514 501 ▼ 501 501 501 501 501 501
Zain KWD 1.2 2,406 2,686 ▲ 2,673 ▼ 2,673 2,430 ▼ 2,430 2,430 2,415 ▼ 2,415 2,415 2,400 ▼ 2,400
Zain KSA SAR 10.7 4,482 4,482 4,482 4,482 4,482 4,482 4,482 4,482 4,482 4,482 4,482 4,482
Sector 79.2 76.4 ▼ 77.7 ▲ 80.0 ▲ 77.3 ▼ 76.6 ▼ 76.8 ▲ 76.0 ▼ 74.6 ▼ 73.9 ▼ 76.9 ▲ 75.9 ▼
Source: UBS Estimates

EBITDA 2009 forecasts at month end 2008 EBITDA growth over last 12 months
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10
Bezeq ILS 8.19 4,347 4,347 4,263 ▼ 4,263 4,919 ▲ 4,919 5,004 ▲ 5,003 ▼ 5,003 4,525 ▼ 4,525 4,525
Cellcom $ 29.20 2,136 2,159 ▲ 2,159 2,225 ▲ 2,326 ▲ 2,326 2,373 ▲ 2,469 ▲ 2,469 2,521 ▲ 2,521 2,521 20% 15.6%
30%
Magyar Telekom HUF 760.0 262,962 262,962 254,066 ▼ 254,066 252,936 ▼ 252,936 252,936 252,936 252,936 252,936 252,936 252,936
Millicom $ 470.00 1,643 1,643 1,642 ▼ 1,642 1,556 ▼ 1,476 ▼ 1,476 1,476 1,434 ▼ 1,465 ▲ 1,465 1,465 10%
25% 5.3%
Mobily SAR 45.40 4,137 4,137 4,137 4,137 4,137 4,137 4,137 4,137 4,137 4,137 4,137 4,137 2.7% 2.0%
20% 18.0% na
MobiNil EGP 204.34 4,288 4,617 ▲ 4,617 4,617 4,617 4,617 4,617 5,176 ▲ 5,176 5,176 5,091 ▼ 5,091 0%
14.9%
MTS $ 47.96 3,634 3,734 ▲ 3,925 ▲ 3,925 3,925 3,925 3,934 ▲ 3,934 3,934 3,994 ▲ 3,994 3,994 15% -2.3% -1.8% -2.1%
Orascom $ 32.55 2,156 2,156 ▲ 2,130 ▼ 2,130 2,130 2,130 2,130 2,199 ▲ 2,199 2,248 ▲ 2,248 2,248 11.0% -4.5% 10.1%
-10% 9.9%
Partner Comms ILS 70.9 1,973 1,973 1,973 2,008 ▲ 1,991 ▼ 1,991 2,106 ▲ 2,106 2,216 ▲ 2,191 ▼ 2,191 2,191 10% 7.0%
-10.8%
Q-Tel QAR 156 11,073 11,073 11,077 ▲ 11,077 11,077 11,077 11,103 ▲ 11,103 11,103 11,103 11,103 11,103 5%
4.1% -15.4% 4.3% .
-20%
Saudi Telecom SAR 45.8 22,607 22,607 22,607 22,607 22,607 22,607 22,607 22,607 22,607 22,607 22,607 22,607 . 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Telecom Egypt EGP 17.2 5,015 3,943 ▼ 3,943 4,875 ▲ 4,875 4,875 4,875 5,248 ▲ 5,384 ▲ 5,364 ▼ 5,364 5,364 0%
-30% -0.4%
Telefonica O2 CR CZK 423.0 26,768 26,768 26,768 26,294 ▼ 26,294 26,294 26,294 26,294 26,294 26,294 26,120 ▼ 26,120 -2.3%
-5% -2.4%
Telkom ZAX 4185.0 23,598 23,598 23,390 ▼ 23,034 ▼ 11,518 ▼ 11,281 ▼ 11,281 11,281 11,336 ▲ 10,389 ▼ 10,389 9,977 ▼ -3.8% -4.5%
TPSA PLN 16.7 7,260 7,260 6,307 ▼ 6,307 6,307 6,357 ▲ 6,357 6,357 6,408 ▲ 6,408 6,336 ▼ 6,336 ▲ -40%
-10%
Turk Telekom TRY 4.6 2,811 2,650 ▼ 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,801 ▲ 2,801 2,801 2,801 2,801 -10.8%
-15% -12.7%
Turkcell $ 16.7 2,097 1,887 ▼ 1,719 ▼ 1,719 1,719 1,719 2,002 ▲ 2,002 2,002 2,002 2,002 2,002 -50%

Magyar

Partner

Telkom

Turkcell
Bezeq

Cellcom

MobiNil

Orascom
TPSA

MTS
Millicom
O2 CR

Vimpelcom
Vimpelcom $ 18.8 3,636 3,636 3,847 ▲ 3,964 ▲ 3,964 3,964 4,272 ▲ 4,272 4,272 4,179 ▼ 4,179 4,179 -20%

Saudi Telecom

Turk Telekom
Telecom Egypt
Magyar

Partner

Turkcell

Q-Tel

Mobily
Bezeq

Wataniya
Cellcom

MobiNil

Orascom
TPSA

MTS

Zain KSA
Zain
Millicom
O2 CR

Vimpelcom
Vodacom ZAX 5178.0 21,532 ▼ 21,870 ▲ 21,870 21,870 21,870 19,444 ▼ 20,073 ▲ 20,073 19,339 ▼
Wataniya KWD 1.5 186 186 186 186 186 181 ▼ 181 181 181 181 181 181
Zain KWD 1.2 909 1,024 ▲ 1,017 ▼ 1,017 971 ▼ 971 971 1,029 ▲ 1,029 1,029 1,001 ▼ 1,001
Zain KSA SAR 10.7 -369 -369 -369 -369 -369 -369 -369 -369 -369 -369 -369 -369
Sector 31.6 30.5 ▼ 30.8 ▲ 31.4 ▲ 30.7 ▼ 30.4 ▼ 30.8 ▲ 30.7 ▼ 30.2 ▼ 29.8 ▼ 31.0 ▲ 30.6 ▼
Source: UBS Estimates

Adj. EPS 2009 forecasts at month end 2008 EPS growth over last 12 months
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10 27.31%
30%
Bezeq ILS 8.19 0.53 0.53 0.52 ▼ 0.52 0.71 ▲ 0.71 0.75 ▲ 0.77 ▲ 0.77 0.82 ▲ 0.83 ▲ 0.83 17.73%
Cellcom $ 29.20 8.62 9.05 ▲ 9.05 9.88 ▲ 10.65 ▲ 10.65 10.53 ▼ 10.97 ▲ 10.97 12.06 ▲ 12.08 ▲ 12.08 30%
8.23%
Magyar Telekom HUF 760.0 87.05 85.97 ▼ 76.75 ▼ 76.75 74.29 ▼ 74.29 74.29 74.29 74.29 74.29 74.29 74.29 10% 19.88% 3.98%
20%
Millicom $ 470.00 5.88 5.88 5.88 ▲ 5.88 5.86 ▼ 5.61 ▼ 5.61 5.61 5.15 ▼ 5.15 ▲ 5.15 5.15
10.84%
Mobily SAR 45.40 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64 -10% -2.98% -4.33% 6.62%
10% 3.98%
MobiNil EGP 204.34 15.65 17.01 ▲ 17.01 17.01 17.01 17.01 17.01 22.25 ▲ 22.25 22.25 20.40 ▼ 20.40 -9.20%
0.00% -11.09% 0.00% 0.00%
MTS $ 47.96 2.74 2.70 ▼ 3.07 ▲ 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.18 ▲ 3.25 ▲ 4.00 ▲ 3.62 ▼ 3.62 3.62 0%
-30% -0.45%
Orascom $ 32.55 1.97 1.85 ▼ 1.92 ▲ 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.75 ▼ 1.75 1.67 ▼ 1.67 1.67
-10% -5.71% -4.29%
Partner Comms ILS 70.9 5.96 5.96 5.96 6.58 ▲ 6.38 ▼ 6.38 6.95 ▲ 6.95 7.50 ▲ 7.14 ▼ 7.14 7.14 .
Q-Tel QAR 156 14 14 16 ▲ 16 16 16 16 ▲ 16 16 16 16 16 -12.30%
-50%
-20% -14.66% -46.21%-15.51%
Saudi Telecom SAR 45.8 5.19 5.19 5.19 5.19 5.19 5.19 5.19 5.19 5.19 5.19 5.19 5.19 .
Telecom Egypt EGP 17.2 1.73 1.40 ▼ 1.40 1.71 ▲ 1.71 1.71 1.71 1.72 ▲ 1.75 ▲ 1.84 ▲ 1.84 1.84 -30%
-70% -29.98%
Telefonica O2 CR CZK 423.0 36.10 36.10 36.10 33.59 ▼ 33.59 33.59 33.59 33.59 33.59 33.59 34.04 ▲ 34.04
-40% -36.48%
Telkom ZAX 4185.0 1,728.09 1,728.09 1,686.52 ▼ 1,633.15 ▼ 684.84 ▼ 691.32 ▲ 691.32 691.32 703.98 ▲ 557.57 ▼ 557.57 499.44 ▼
TPSA PLN 16.7 1.63 1.63 0.87 ▼ 0.87 0.87 0.94 ▲ 0.94 0.94 0.96 ▲ 0.96 1.04 ▲ 1.04 -90%
-50%

Vimpelcom
Partner Magyar

Partner

Cellcom

Orascom
Bezeq

Millicom

MobiNil
TPSA
Cellcom O2 CR

Turkcell

MTS
Turk Telekom TRY 4.6 35.37 28.53 ▼ 28.53 28.53 28.53 28.53 28.53 33.85 ▲ 33.85 33.85 33.85 33.85
Turkcell $ 16.7 1.43 1.29 ▼ 1.11 ▼ 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.48 ▲ 1.48 1.48 1.48 1.48 1.48 -60%

Saudi Telecom

Telecom Egypt

Zain KSA
Magyar

Orascom
Bezeq

Millicom

Turk Telekom

Mobily
MobiNil

Wataniya

Zain
TPSA
O2 CR

Turkcell

Q-Tel
MTS
Vimpelcom $ 18.8 0.54 0.54 0.70 ▲ 0.71 ▲ 0.71 0.71 1.15 ▲ 1.15 1.44 ▲ 1.36 ▼ 1.36 1.36
Vodacom ZAX 5178.0 666.04 ▼ 666.04 666.04 666.04 666.04 562.86 ▼ 588.22 ▲ 588.22 526.80 ▼
Wataniya KWD 1.5 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 ▼ 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14
Zain KWD 1.2 0.10 0.10 ▼ 0.09 ▼ 0.09 0.09 ▼ 0.09 0.09 0.09 ▼ 0.09 0.09 0.07 ▼ 0.07
Zain KSA SAR 10.7 -1.76 -1.76 -1.76 -1.76 -1.76 -1.76 -1.76 -1.76 -1.76 -1.76 -1.76 -1.76
Sector
Source: UBS Estimates
Source: UBS estimates, unless otherwise stated. * Values are in local curreny; prices as of 13/01/10
Other EMEA Telecoms - (4) Forecasts
Revenue Revenue growth 2008-11E Core EBITDA EBITDA growth 2008-11E EBITDA margin
Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Bezeq ILS 9.44 12,400 11,015 11,411 11,621 11,720 -11.2% 3.6% 1.8% 0.9% 2.1% 4,145 4,098 4,525 4,891 5,231 -1.1% 10.4% 8.1% 7.0% 8.5% 33.4% 37.2% 39.7% 42.1% 44.6%
Cellcom $ 32.30 6,050 6,417 6,484 6,576 6,707 6.1% 1.0% 1.4% 2.0% 1.5% 2,107 2,435 2,521 2,472 2,510 15.6% 3.5% -2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 34.8% 38.0% 38.9% 37.6% 37.4%
Magyar Telekom HUF 747.0 676,661 673,056 646,172 628,070 620,959 -0.5% -4.0% -2.8% -1.1% -2.6% 243,907 268,378 252,936 243,974 239,555 10.0% -5.8% -3.5% -1.8% -3.7% 36.0% 39.9% 39.1% 38.8% 38.6%
Millicom $ 562.00 2,631 3,419 3,357 3,666 3,856 30.0% -1.8% 9.2% 5.2% 4.1% 1,045 1,388 1,465 1,647 1,736 32.9% 5.5% 12.4% 5.4% 7.7% 39.7% 40.6% 43.6% 44.9% 45.0%
Mobily SAR 46.50 8,440 10,795 12,776 14,731 16,799 27.9% 18.4% 15.3% 14.0% 15.9% 2,946 3,801 4,137 4,847 5,614 29.0% 8.8% 17.2% 15.8% 13.9% 34.9% 35.2% 32.4% 32.9% 33.4%
MobiNil EGP 237.73 8,200 10,003 10,831 11,817 12,732 22.0% 8.3% 9.1% 7.7% 8.4% 3,700 4,681 5,091 5,436 5,666 26.5% 8.7% 6.8% 4.2% 6.6% 45.1% 46.8% 47.0% 46.0% 44.5%
MTS $ 50.91 8,252 10,245 8,580 11,336 11,910 24.1% -16.3% 32.1% 5.1% 5.1% 4,223 5,140 3,994 5,119 5,317 21.7% -22.3% 28.2% 3.9% 1.1% 51.2% 50.2% 46.6% 45.2% 44.6%
Orascom $ 25.50 4,720 5,327 5,102 5,443 5,790 12.9% -4.2% 6.7% 6.4% 2.8% 2,043 2,384 2,248 2,386 2,549 16.7% -5.7% 6.1% 6.8% 2.3% 43.3% 44.7% 44.1% 43.8% 44.0%
Partner Comms ILS 74.6 6,114 6,302 5,989 6,086 6,147 3.1% -5.0% 1.6% 1.0% -0.8% 1,995 2,416 2,191 2,154 2,212 21.1% -9.3% -1.7% 2.7% -2.9% 32.6% 38.3% 36.6% 35.4% 36.0%
Q-Tel QAR 147 10,373 20,319 24,448 27,250 29,703 95.9% 20.3% 11.5% 9.0% 13.5% 4,918 9,634 11,103 12,054 12,626 95.9% 15.3% 8.6% 4.7% 9.4% 47.4% 47.4% 45.4% 44.2% 42.5%
Saudi Telecom SAR 44.7 34,458 47,445 52,586 54,485 56,192 37.7% 10.8% 3.6% 3.1% 5.8% 16,716 20,289 22,607 23,293 23,769 21.4% 11.4% 3.0% 2.0% 5.4% 48.5% 42.8% 43.0% 42.8% 42.3%
Telecom Egypt EGP 19.3 9,993 10,117 10,254 10,821 10,377 1.2% 1.4% 5.5% -4.1% 0.8% 4,999 4,442 5,364 5,670 5,327 -11.1% 20.8% 5.7% -6.0% 6.2% 50.0% 43.9% 52.3% 52.4% 51.3%
Telefonica O2 CR CZK 432.8 63,033 64,654 59,921 58,017 57,147 2.6% -7.3% -3.2% -1.5% -4.0% 28,033 27,827 26,120 24,417 24,430 -0.7% -6.1% -6.5% 0.1% -4.2% 44.5% 43.0% 43.6% 42.1% 42.7%
Telkom ZAX 3335.0 56,765 36,283 38,018 37,557 38,414 -36.1% 4.8% -1.2% 2.3% 1.9% 20,940 12,880 9,977 10,136 10,576 -38.5% -22.5% 1.6% 4.3% -6.4% 36.9% 35.5% 26.2% 27.0% 27.5%
TPSA PLN 16.5 18,244 18,165 16,586 15,993 15,660 -0.4% -8.7% -3.6% -2.1% -4.8% 7,721 7,630 6,336 6,146 6,100 -1.2% -17.0% -3.0% -0.7% -7.2% 42.3% 42.0% 38.2% 38.4% 39.0%
Turk Telekom TRY 5.1 7,139 7,782 6,740 6,853 6,902 9.0% -13.4% 1.7% 0.7% -3.9% 3,185 3,314 2,801 2,871 2,831 4.1% -15.5% 2.5% -1.4% -5.1% 44.6% 42.6% 41.6% 41.9% 41.0%
Turkcell $ 19.3 6,329 6,970 5,806 5,881 6,107 10.1% -16.7% 1.3% 3.8% -4.3% 2,627 2,580 2,002 2,113 2,191 -1.8% -22.4% 5.5% 3.7% -5.3% 41.5% 37.0% 34.5% 35.9% 35.9%
Vimpelcom $ 20.3 7,171 10,117 8,728 10,583 11,354 41.1% -13.7% 21.2% 7.3% 3.9% 3,597 4,860 4,179 4,971 5,256 35.1% -14.0% 19.0% 5.7% 2.6% 50.2% 48.0% 47.9% 47.0% 46.3%
Vodacom ZAX 5384.0 48,178 55,187 60,101 63,251 67,488 14.5% 8.9% 5.2% 6.7% 6.9% 16,404 16,687 19,339 20,318 21,503 1.7% 15.9% 5.1% 5.8% 8.8% 34.0% 30.2% 32.2% 32.1% 31.9%
Wataniya KWD 1.5 408 476 501 528 554 16.8% 5.3% 5.4% 4.9% 5.2% 141 175 181 181 190 24.7% 3.5% -0.3% 4.9% 2.7% 34.5% 36.8% 36.2% 34.3% 34.3%
Zain KWD 1.0 1,677 2,003 2,400 2,664 3,046 19.4% 19.8% 11.0% 14.3% 15.0% 688 684 1,001 1,119 1,272 -0.5% 46.3% 11.8% 13.7% 23.0% 41.0% 34.2% 41.7% 42.0% 41.8%
Zain KSA SAR 10.2 505 4,482 7,414 10,516 nm 787.1% 65.4% 41.8% 175.1% -1,265 -369 9 1,516 nm 70.8% 102.5% 16360.5% 728.8% nm -250.4% -8.2% 0.1% 14.4%
Sector 66.0 75.8 75.2 81.1 85.2 14.8% -0.8% 7.9% 5.0% 4.0% 28.1 31.4 30.7 33.2 34.6 11.9% -2.4% 8.1% 4.4% 3.3% 42.6% 41.5% 40.8% 40.9% 40.6%

EPS EPS growth 2008-11E DPS DPS growth 2008-11E Capex

Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Bezeq ILS 9.44 0.51 0.69 0.83 0.85 1.02 34.3% 20.9% 2.9% 20.2% 14.3% 0.98 0.89 1.37 1.23 1.02 -9.9% 54.8% -9.9% -17.1% 5.0% 1,246 1,769 1,762 1,359 1,126
Cellcom $ 32.30 8.97 9.92 12.08 12.04 12.78 10.5% 21.8% -0.3% 6.1% 8.8% 13.90 11.06 11.43 11.44 12.14 -20.4% 3.4% 0.1% 6.1% 3.2% 573 534 535 663 664
Magyar Telekom HUF 747.0 57.69 89.19 74.29 76.31 76.54 54.6% -16.7% 2.7% 0.3% -5.0% 142.72 73.96 74.00 72.00 72.00 -48.2% 0.1% -2.7% 0.0% -0.9% 103,097 116,039 104,034 100,491 100,595
Millicom $ 562.00 4.27 5.57 5.15 5.78 6.00 30.3% -7.5% 12.2% 3.8% 2.5% 2.40 1.24 1.29 1.45 1.50 -48.3% 3.9% 12.2% 3.8% 6.6% 1,062 1,393 765 753 714
Mobily SAR 46.50 2.76 4.18 2.64 3.32 4.03 51.6% -36.8% 25.5% 21.6% -1.2% 0.00 0.50 0.75 1.32 3.32 nm 50.0% 76.2% 150.9% 87.9% 2,661 4,623 2,813 3,018 3,033
MobiNil EGP 237.73 16.66 19.75 20.40 23.65 24.18 18.6% 3.3% 15.9% 2.2% 7.0% 15.80 10.34 12.17 12.17 19.13 -34.6% 17.7% 0.0% 57.1% 22.8% 3,252 5,019 2,599 3,072 2,279
MTS $ 50.91 5.05 4.72 3.62 5.06 5.57 -6.7% -23.3% 40.0% 10.0% 5.7% 1.90 2.78 2.85 2.17 3.04 46.2% 2.8% -23.9% 40.0% 3.1% 1,539 2,227 1,702 2,330 2,225
Orascom $ 25.50 2.40 2.39 1.67 1.69 2.36 -0.1% -30.4% 1.1% 39.7% -0.5% 0.64 0.94 0.83 0.84 1.18 46.3% -11.1% 1.1% 39.7% 7.9% 1,660 1,743 1,117 1,152 932
Partner Comms ILS 74.6 6.01 7.30 7.14 7.08 7.49 21.6% -2.2% -0.8% 5.7% 0.8% 4.77 5.43 6.26 12.22 7.44 13.9% 15.2% 95.2% -39.1% 11.1% 532 521 771 523 515
Q-Tel QAR 147 11.42 15.53 16.04 18.78 20.80 36.0% 3.3% 17.1% 10.7% 10.2% 6.61 3.75 10.00 4.81 5.64 -43.3% 166.7% -51.9% 17.1% 14.5% 6,666 6,834 6,534 6,705 6,563
Saudi Telecom SAR 44.7 6.01 5.52 5.19 5.38 5.37 -8.1% -6.0% 3.6% -0.2% -0.9% 5.00 3.75 4.67 4.84 4.83 -25.0% 24.6% 3.6% -0.2% 8.8% 8,335 16,357 8,108 8,232 8,415
Telecom Egypt EGP 19.3 1.49 1.64 1.84 2.11 2.10 9.9% 12.5% 14.7% -0.8% 8.6% 0.76 1.09 1.30 2.00 2.20 44.1% 19.3% 53.8% 10.0% 26.4% 978 805 1,333 1,515 1,505
Telefonica O2 CR CZK 432.8 32.25 34.60 34.04 31.68 33.01 7.3% -1.6% -6.9% 4.2% -1.6% 50.00 50.00 50.00 45.00 45.00 0.0% 0.0% -10.0% 0.0% -3.5% 5,654 6,916 7,041 7,252 7,429
Telkom ZAX 3335.0 1,624.23 1,044.34 499.44 528.88 525.70 -35.7% -52.2% 5.9% -0.6% -20.5% 657.75 114.98 124.74 134.60 144.57 -82.5% 8.5% 7.9% 7.4% 7.9% 11,657 13,191 7,496 7,360 7,506
TPSA PLN 16.5 1.65 1.63 1.04 1.01 1.03 -0.9% -36.5% -3.0% 2.3% -14.2% 1.42 1.53 1.50 1.50 1.50 7.7% -2.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.7% 2,998 3,591 1,990 2,879 2,897
Turk Telekom TRY 5.1 55.13 35.97 33.85 34.13 36.26 -34.7% -5.9% 0.8% 6.2% 0.3% 51.34 59.39 32.50 29.14 32.02 15.7% -45.3% -10.4% 9.9% -18.6% 913 1,250 1,276 1,107 1,100
Turkcell $ 19.3 1.53 2.09 1.48 1.57 1.60 36.0% -29.0% 5.9% 1.7% -8.5% 0.52 0.63 0.81 0.89 0.94 21.7% 28.0% 9.8% 5.9% 14.2% 565 604 1,508 922 652
Vimpelcom $ 20.3 1.36 0.60 1.36 2.01 2.36 -56.3% 128.4% 47.6% 17.4% 58.2% 0.32 0.58 0.00 0.82 1.20 81.3% -100.0% nm 47.6% nm 1,312 2,077 1,108 1,798 1,916
Vodacom ZAX 5384.0 528.51 417.41 526.80 608.70 644.54 -21.0% 26.2% 15.5% 5.9% 15.6% 0.00 0.00 231.79 273.91 290.04 nm nm 18.2% 5.9% nm 7,487 13,691 6,909 8,361 8,747
Wataniya KWD 1.5 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.15 0.17 2.1% -12.2% 6.4% 13.0% 1.8% 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.14 0.15 -28.6% 0.0% 187.3% 6.4% 45.1% 113 113 100 106 83
Zain KWD 1.0 0.11 0.08 0.07 0.10 0.12 -27.1% -18.2% 41.5% 21.3% 12.0% 0.06 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 -26.6% 15.7% 10.5% 21.3% 15.8% 753 794 513 567 697
Zain KSA SAR 10.2 -1.33 -1.76 -1.56 -0.77 nm -32.6% 11.2% 50.9% 4.2% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 nm nm nm nm nm mn 2,498 1,500 1,700 2,103
Sector -5.5% -6.9% 14.9% 8.5% 5.1% -13.6% 1.3% 15.5% 10.4% 29.1% 14 19 13 14 14

OpFCF OpFCF growth 2008-11E Net debt Net debt growth 2008-11E Capex growth 2008-11E
Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR*
Bezeq ILS 9.44 2,899 2,329 2,763 3,532 4,105 -19.7% 18.7% 27.8% 16.2% 20.8% -5,559 -5,171 -2,399 -3,657 -3,747 7.0% 53.6% -52.4% -2.5% -31.9% 42.0% -0.4% -22.9% -17.1% -14.0%
Cellcom $ 32.30 1,534 1,901 1,986 1,809 1,846 24.0% 4.4% -8.9% 2.1% -1.0% -2,581 -3,300 -3,185 -3,055 -2,995 -27.9% 3.5% 4.1% 1.9% 3.0% -6.8% 0.2% 23.8% 0.1% 7.5%
Magyar Telekom HUF 747.0 140,810 152,339 148,902 143,483 138,959 8.2% -2.3% -3.6% -3.2% -3.0% -268,124 -263,783 -265,389 -264,621 -265,104 1.6% -0.6% 0.3% -0.2% 0.1% 12.6% -10.3% -3.4% 0.1% -4.6%
Millicom $ 562.00 -17 -4 700 894 1,022 74.9% 16552.4% 27.6% 14.3% 524.0% -645 -1,484 -490 -232 325 -129.9% 66.9% 52.7% 240.2% 127.9% 31.1% -45.1% -1.5% -5.2% -20.0%
Mobily SAR 46.50 285 -822 1,324 1,830 2,581 -388.4% 261.1% 38.2% 41.1% 91.7% -8,220 -8,526 -7,010 -5,756 -5,170 -3.7% 17.8% 17.9% 10.2% 14.0% 73.7% -39.2% 7.3% 0.5% -13.1%
MobiNil EGP 237.73 447 -338 2,491 2,363 3,387 -175.5% 837.3% -5.1% 43.3% 133.6% -4,095 -5,025 -5,091 -5,311 -5,335 -22.7% -1.3% -4.3% -0.5% -2.4% 54.3% -48.2% 18.2% -25.8% -23.1%
MTS $ 50.91 2,684 2,913 2,293 2,789 3,092 8.5% -21.3% 21.7% 10.9% 2.0% -2,767 -3,016 -4,575 -3,834 -2,871 -9.0% -51.7% 16.2% 25.1% 20.6% 44.7% -23.6% 36.9% -4.5% 0.0%
Orascom $ 25.50 383 640 1,131 1,233 1,617 66.9% 76.6% 9.1% 31.1% 36.2% -4,623 -5,084 -5,116 -4,814 -4,246 -10.0% -0.6% 5.9% 11.8% 8.8% 5.1% -35.9% 3.2% -19.1% -18.8%
Partner Comms ILS 74.6 1,463 1,895 1,420 1,632 1,697 29.5% -25.1% 14.9% 4.0% -3.6% -1,953 -1,997 -1,702 -2,450 -2,456 -2.3% 14.8% -44.0% -0.2% -25.2% -2.1% 47.9% -32.2% -1.4% -0.4%
Q-Tel QAR 147 -1,748 2,800 4,569 5,349 6,063 260.2% 63.2% 17.1% 13.3% 29.4% -18,375 -20,130 -24,648 -22,807 -20,803 -9.6% -22.4% 7.5% 8.8% 8.1% 2.5% -4.4% 2.6% -2.1% -1.3%
Saudi Telecom SAR 44.7 8,381 3,932 14,500 15,062 15,354 -53.1% 268.7% 3.9% 1.9% 57.5% -5,962 -23,845 -25,601 -25,572 -25,309 -300.0% -7.4% 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 96.2% -50.4% 1.5% 2.2% -19.9%
Telecom Egypt EGP 19.3 4,021 3,637 4,031 4,155 3,822 -9.6% 10.8% 3.1% -8.0% 1.7% -3,224 -465 1,410 2,131 2,435 85.6% 403.1% 51.2% 14.2% 31.4% -17.7% 65.6% 13.6% -0.7% 23.2%
Telefonica O2 CR CZK 432.8 22,379 20,911 19,079 17,165 17,001 -6.6% -8.8% -10.0% -1.0% -6.7% 355 3,957 2,811 2,155 1,314 1014.6% -29.0% -23.4% -39.0% -31.6% 22.3% 1.8% 3.0% 2.4% 2.4%
Telkom ZAX 3335.0 9,283 -311 2,481 2,776 3,070 -103.4% 897.8% 11.9% 10.6% 131.1% -14,827 -16,494 -5,977 -5,823 -5,394 -11.2% 63.8% 2.6% 7.4% 4.9% 13.2% -43.2% -1.8% 2.0% -17.1%
TPSA PLN 16.5 4,723 4,039 4,345 3,268 3,203 -14.5% 7.6% -24.8% -2.0% -7.4% -6,666 -5,408 -3,822 -3,315 -2,880 18.9% 29.3% 13.3% 13.1% 13.2% 19.8% -44.6% 44.6% 0.6% -6.9%
Turk Telekom TRY 5.1 2,271 2,064 1,525 1,764 1,731 -9.1% -26.1% 15.7% -1.9% -5.7% -736 -1,703 -1,859 -1,587 -1,402 -131.3% -9.2% 14.6% 11.6% 13.1% 36.9% 2.1% -13.2% -0.7% -4.2%
Turkcell $ 19.3 2,062 1,977 494 1,191 1,539 -4.1% -75.0% 140.9% 29.3% -8.0% 2,333 2,470 1,919 1,852 2,247 5.8% -22.3% -3.5% 21.3% 8.2% 6.9% 149.8% -38.8% -29.3% 2.6%
Vimpelcom $ 20.3 2,285 2,782 3,071 3,173 3,341 21.8% 10.4% 3.3% 5.3% 6.3% -1,763 -7,528 -5,460 -4,345 -3,354 -327.0% 27.5% 20.4% 22.8% 21.6% 58.3% -46.7% 62.3% 6.6% -2.7%
Vodacom ZAX 5384.0 8,917 2,996 12,430 11,957 12,756 -66.4% 314.8% -3.8% 6.7% 62.1% -8,338 -17,312 -18,391 -16,097 -13,987 -107.6% -6.2% 12.5% 13.1% 12.8% 82.9% -49.5% 21.0% 4.6% -13.9%
Wataniya KWD 1.5 28 63 81 75 107 127.6% 29.4% -7.2% 41.6% 19.3% -128 -43 1 18 15 66.3% 102.2% 1745.0% -18.2% 288.6% -0.4% -10.9% 5.4% -21.3% -9.6%
Zain KWD 1.0 -66 -110 488 551 575 -67.2% 544.7% 13.0% 4.4% 96.6% -1,743 -1,534 -1,612 -1,219 -998 12.0% -5.1% 24.4% 18.1% 21.2% 5.4% -35.4% 10.6% 22.8% -4.3%
Zain KSA SAR 10.2 -3,763 -1,869 -1,691 -587 nm 50.3% 9.6% 65.3% 39.6% -12,592 -14,654 -16,989 -18,571 nm -16.4% -15.9% -9.3% -12.7% nm -39.9% 13.3% 23.7% -5.6%
Sector 13.8 12.3 17.2 18.8 20.4 -10.4% 39.8% 8.8% 8.7% 18.3% -23.9 -32.8 -31.3 -27.8 -23.9 -37.6% 4.8% 11.0% 14.1% 12.5% 33.2% -29.6% 7.2% -1.3% -9.4%

Source: UBS estimates, unless otherwise stated. * Growth rates for underlying financial quantities, not the multiples; prices as of 13/01/10
Other EMEA Telecoms - (5) Financial ratios
Dividend payout (% adj. earnings) Dividend payout (% EFCF) Dividend cover (adj. earnings) Interest cover: EBIT / Interest Interest cover: OpFCF / Interest
Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Bezeq ILS 9.44 192.5% 129.1% 165.4% 144.9% 100.0% 131.9% 138.9% 180.5% 123.2% 86.6% 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 6.8 18.9 -127.3 9.3 19.7 8.3 16.6 -117.6 10.0 21.9
Cellcom $ 32.30 154.9% 111.5% 94.7% 95.0% 95.0% 119.6% 80.6% 75.2% 83.7% 85.9% 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 9.1 5.4 8.3 12.8 14.9 10.4 6.1 9.2 13.3 15.3
Magyar Telekom HUF 747.0 247.4% 82.9% 99.6% 94.3% 94.1% 143.6% 63.9% 65.6% 66.2% 68.4% 0.4 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 4.3 5.4 4.0 4.6 5.0 4.7 5.0 3.9 4.4 4.8
Millicom $ 562.00 56.2% 22.3% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 0.0% -10151.7% 0.0% 42.6% 21.3% nm 2.3 nm 2.3 4.2 6.5 6.0 5.5 7.5 16.1 -0.2 0.0 4.4 7.0 17.3
Mobily SAR 46.50 0.0% 12.0% 28.4% 39.9% 82.2% 0.0% -30.5% 40.7% 51.9% 92.2% nm 8.4 3.5 2.5 1.2 3.4 5.7 4.4 5.8 7.6 0.5 -1.9 2.4 3.7 5.9
MobiNil EGP 237.73 94.8% 52.3% 59.7% 51.5% 79.1% 458.2% -382.4% 60.9% 64.2% 70.4% 1.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.3 25.6 5.5 4.9 5.9 5.9 4.7 -0.6 3.8 4.0 5.5
MTS $ 50.91 37.6% 58.9% 78.9% 42.9% 54.5% 38.4% 50.7% 62.8% 39.3% 49.6% 2.7 1.7 1.3 2.3 1.8 -72.0 26.7 7.0 5.8 7.9 -70.7 24.2 7.5 5.1 7.3
Orascom $ 25.50 26.7% 39.1% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 38.0% 46.7% 20.3% 18.8% 20.1% 3.8 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.7 3.5 2.3 2.3 2.8 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.4 3.4
Partner Comms ILS 74.6 79.3% 74.3% 87.6% 172.6% 99.5% 58.0% 68.3% 72.8% 154.3% 89.2% 1.5 1.2 1.4 0.6 1.0 11.1 9.6 10.5 10.6 10.1 11.6 10.3 9.2 10.8 10.2
Q-Tel QAR 147 57.9% 24.2% 62.3% 25.6% 27.1% -56.5% 9.9% 40.8% 16.9% 17.7% 2.2 11.4 1.6 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.9 4.2 -2.0 1.8 2.7 3.2 3.6
Saudi Telecom SAR 44.7 83.2% 67.9% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 129.8% 234.4% 66.0% 68.7% 67.9% 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 -38.0 -9.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 -25.2 -2.6 6.7 6.7 6.9
Telecom Egypt EGP 19.3 50.8% 66.6% 70.6% 94.7% 105.0% 38.6% 60.5% 66.3% 99.0% 118.4% 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.0 6.0 17.6 126.9 -118.8 -51.0 6.6 18.3 133.3 -114.0 -45.9
Telefonica O2 CR CZK 432.8 155.1% 144.5% 146.9% 142.0% 136.3% 93.6% 101.8% 109.6% 109.7% 110.7% 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 154.5 480.5 73.0 95.3 129.2 254.3 674.5 96.4 122.1 157.8
Telkom ZAX 3335.0 40.5% 11.0% 25.0% 25.5% 27.5% 57.7% -262.1% 42.8% 35.9% 34.4% 2.4 8.9 4.0 3.9 3.6 8.3 2.7 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 -0.1 2.2 2.7 3.1
TPSA PLN 16.5 86.3% 93.9% 144.8% 149.2% 145.8% 51.7% 60.3% 56.9% 75.7% 77.2% 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 8.1 6.6 5.0 4.8 4.8 11.7 8.0 10.1 7.4 7.2
Turk Telekom TRY 5.1 93.1% 165.1% 96.0% 85.4% 88.3% 106.8% 61.0% 90.7% 77.5% 82.4% 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 -20.4 -94.4 17.4 12.9 15.3 -23.9 -94.1 15.9 12.9 15.1
Turkcell $ 19.3 33.9% 30.3% 54.6% 56.6% 59.0% 27.6% 37.0% 180.3% 82.2% 67.4% 3.0 3.3 1.8 1.8 1.7 7.8 -6.6 -15.3 -22.9 -24.5 8.5 -6.5 -5.0 -16.5 -22.3
Vimpelcom $ 20.3 23.5% 97.5% 0.0% 40.6% 51.1% 20.2% 30.8% 0.0% 32.9% 46.2% 4.3 1.0 nm 2.5 2.0 13.9 6.0 4.1 5.6 8.3 14.4 6.6 5.1 5.6 8.1
Vodacom ZAX 5384.0 0.0% 0.0% 44.0% 45.0% 45.0% 101.3% 271.1% 42.3% 50.8% 55.9% 1.3 1.3 2.4 2.2 1.9 20.5 8.9 7.9 10.6 11.7 14.6 2.2 9.0 8.6 9.9
Wataniya KWD 1.5 43.7% 30.6% 34.8% 94.0% 88.5% 181.6% 42.5% 37.4% 101.1% 76.0% 1.6 3.6 2.9 1.1 1.1 4.8 9.9 21.3 -840.1 -50.5 1.8 6.4 18.9 -782.0 -60.0
Zain KWD 1.0 51.2% 51.5% 72.9% 56.9% 56.9% -284.9% -176.9% 46.2% 45.4% 52.8% 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.8 1.8 4.9 3.5 3.6 4.7 5.5 -0.7 -1.1 3.3 4.3 4.5
Zain KSA SAR 10.2 nm 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% nm 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% nm nm nm nm nm nm -10.6 -2.9 -1.5 0.0 nm -23.5 -2.9 -1.9 -0.6
Sector 69.9% 11.0% 25.0% 25.5% 27.5% 57.7% -262.1% 42.8% 35.9% 34.4% 2.4 8.9 4.0 3.9 3.6 8.3 2.7 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 -0.1 2.2 2.7 3.1

Net debt / EBITDA Net debt / EV Net debt / Market cap Depreciation / Capex Capex / sales
Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Bezeq ILS 9.44 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 21.5% 21.9% 8.4% 11.1% 10.4% 29.8% 30.3% 9.6% 14.8% 15.2% 1.4 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 10.0% 16.1% 15.4% 11.7% 9.6%
Cellcom $ 32.30 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 45.5% 60.3% 21.4% 19.1% 17.5% 83.3% 151.8% 27.2% 25.8% 25.3% 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.1 9.5% 8.3% 8.3% 10.1% 9.9%
Magyar Telekom HUF 747.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 21.2% 29.5% 23.7% 21.9% 20.4% 28.7% 47.4% 34.3% 34.0% 34.0% 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 15.2% 17.2% 16.1% 16.0% 16.2%
Millicom $ 562.00 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 -0.2 5.0% 21.6% 5.2% 2.4% -3.6% 5.4% 29.9% 5.7% 2.7% -3.8% 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 40.4% 40.7% 22.8% 20.5% 18.5%
Mobily SAR 46.50 2.8 2.2 1.7 1.2 0.9 18.3% 28.2% 17.7% 14.7% 12.6% 22.4% 39.3% 21.5% 17.7% 15.9% 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 31.5% 42.8% 22.0% 20.5% 18.1%
MobiNil EGP 237.73 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 16.8% 25.7% 17.6% 17.5% 16.4% 20.1% 34.7% 21.4% 22.4% 22.5% 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.9 39.7% 50.2% 24.0% 26.0% 17.9%
MTS $ 50.91 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.5 6.3% 21.0% 17.9% 14.9% 11.1% 6.8% 28.4% 22.5% 18.9% 14.1% 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.9 18.6% 21.7% 19.8% 20.6% 18.7%
Orascom $ 25.50 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.7 20.7% 48.0% 50.3% 48.1% 44.0% 27.1% 103.5% 114.8% 108.0% 95.3% 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3 35.2% 32.7% 21.9% 21.2% 16.1%
Partner Comms ILS 74.6 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 12.6% 16.9% 13.2% 15.5% 14.4% 14.5% 20.6% 15.3% 21.4% 21.4% 1.1 1.3 0.7 1.1 1.0 8.7% 8.3% 12.9% 8.6% 8.4%
Q-Tel QAR 147 3.7 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.6 30.2% 37.1% 38.4% 36.2% 33.6% 64.7% 124.8% 114.3% 105.8% 96.5% 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 64.3% 33.6% 26.7% 24.6% 22.1%
Saudi Telecom SAR 44.7 0.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 3.4% 18.0% 20.3% 18.9% 17.4% 3.6% 24.3% 28.6% 28.6% 28.3% 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 24.2% 34.5% 15.4% 15.1% 15.0%
Telecom Egypt EGP 19.3 0.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 11.0% 2.7% -7.5% -10.7% -11.3% 9.0% 1.7% -4.3% -6.5% -7.4% 3.0 3.4 2.0 1.6 1.5 9.8% 8.0% 13.0% 14.0% 14.5%
Telefonica O2 CR CZK 432.8 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2% -3.0% -2.1% -1.4% -0.8% -0.2% -2.9% -2.0% -1.5% -0.9% 2.6 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 9.0% 10.7% 11.8% 12.5% 13.0%
Telkom ZAX 3335.0 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 15.4% 19.2% 20.4% 14.8% 13.6% 20.2% 27.7% 35.1% 35.0% 32.4% 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 20.5% 36.4% 19.7% 19.6% 19.5%
TPSA PLN 16.5 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 17.3% 16.5% 14.0% 11.8% 9.7% 21.4% 20.4% 16.8% 15.1% 13.1% 1.5 1.2 2.1 1.4 1.4 16.4% 19.8% 12.0% 18.0% 18.5%
Turk Telekom TRY 5.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 nm 11.5% 12.3% 10.0% 8.4% nm 14.0% 15.1% 12.9% 11.4% 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 12.8% 16.1% 18.9% 16.2% 15.9%
Turkcell $ 19.3 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -10.9% -25.4% -13.3% -12.1% -14.3% -9.6% -19.2% -11.3% -10.9% -13.2% 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 8.9% 8.7% 26.0% 15.7% 10.7%
Vimpelcom $ 20.3 0.5 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.6 3.9% 50.5% 20.9% 16.8% 12.9% 4.1% 103.9% 26.6% 21.2% 16.3% 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.9 18.3% 20.5% 12.7% 17.0% 16.9%
Vodacom ZAX 5384.0 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 nm nm 18.1% 15.5% 13.2% nm nm 23.0% 20.1% 17.5% 0.5 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.7 15.5% 24.8% 11.5% 13.2% 13.0%
Wataniya KWD 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 83.6% 4.2% -0.1% -2.0% -1.5% 5406.0% 4.5% -0.1% -2.3% -1.9% 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 27.7% 23.6% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0%
Zain KWD 1.0 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.1 0.8 23.1% 27.5% 24.6% 18.7% 15.0% 30.9% 42.8% 37.9% 28.8% 23.5% 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 44.9% 39.6% 21.4% 21.3% 22.9%
Zain KSA SAR 10.2 nm -10.0 -39.7 1,844.8 12.3 nm 45.8% 50.6% 54.3% 56.5% nm 84.5% 102.6% 119.0% 130.1% nm 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 nm 494.4% 33.5% 22.9% 20.0%
Sector 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 11.0% 23.1% 17.9% 15.3% 12.7% 12.6% 32.0% 23.1% 20.6% 17.7% 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 21.7% 25.2% 17.9% 17.8% 16.7%

ROE ROA Pre-tax RoCE EV / IC FCF / Sales

Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Bezeq ILS 9.44 25.1% 38.6% 38.5% 38.3% 56.1% 29.1% 35.1% 44.1% 51.5% 60.7% 21.8% 25.4% 30.2% 34.4% 40.4% 2.4 2.3 2.9 3.5 4.1 15.7% 15.1% 17.4% 22.5% 26.4%
Cellcom $ 32.30 122.0% 160.5% 281.1% 242.5% 235.2% 0.0% 59.3% 61.2% 60.2% 63.6% 36.1% 47.4% 48.9% 47.9% 50.2% 1.7 1.5 4.1 4.5 4.8 18.7% 21.2% 23.3% 20.6% 20.9%
Magyar Telekom HUF 747.0 11.6% 17.7% 14.4% 14.7% 14.7% 27.1% 33.2% 30.4% 29.3% 28.5% 15.4% 19.1% 17.6% 17.0% 16.6% 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 15.3% 17.9% 18.2% 18.0% 17.7%
Millicom $ 562.00 48.2% 40.5% 24.5% 20.5% 18.7% 68.7% 47.8% 40.2% 42.5% 41.9% 41.1% 34.1% 27.2% 28.9% 28.5% 6.4 2.2 2.9 2.8 2.8 -0.5% -0.1% 14.8% 17.6% 19.1%
Mobily SAR 46.50 26.4% 26.7% 18.4% 22.3% 27.1% 85.7% 57.6% 42.7% 54.6% 68.5% 13.9% 15.4% 13.7% 17.1% 20.9% 3.2 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.6 3.3% -7.6% 10.1% 12.1% 15.0%
MobiNil EGP 237.73 98.4% 90.5% 69.7% 63.4% 56.0% 67.2% 65.7% 66.8% 61.9% 56.3% 50.7% 44.9% 40.1% 39.7% 37.7% 4.2 2.6 3.5 3.2 3.3 4.3% -2.7% 18.4% 16.0% 21.3%
MTS $ 50.91 43.8% 39.6% 34.3% 40.9% 36.9% 43.2% 49.4% 30.5% 37.9% 38.3% 36.7% 41.8% 24.1% 29.1% 29.6% 5.4 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.3 23.9% 21.3% 21.1% 19.4% 20.5%
Orascom $ 25.50 11.4% 10.6% 9.9% 9.6% 12.6% 23.6% 24.5% 23.6% 23.4% 28.1% 15.3% 16.3% 14.6% 14.5% 17.1% 2.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 7.3% 6.7% 14.1% 14.4% 17.7%
Partner Comms ILS 74.6 64.6% 67.0% 60.6% 73.0% 105.5% 58.6% 70.6% 67.5% 69.3% 73.4% 39.1% 47.4% 43.8% 44.3% 46.8% 4.2 3.1 3.5 4.4 4.7 17.6% 21.6% 17.7% 20.1% 21.0%
Q-Tel QAR 147 26.2% 17.2% 12.1% 13.1% 13.3% 99.9% 55.0% 34.1% 35.4% 37.4% 16.2% 12.3% 10.2% 10.7% 11.5% 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 -13.2% 10.0% 14.7% 15.3% 15.8%
Saudi Telecom SAR 44.7 26.0% 21.2% 18.3% 17.9% 17.5% 36.9% 33.8% 32.9% 32.9% 32.2% 25.5% 19.4% 17.9% 18.0% 17.9% 3.0 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 23.5% 7.7% 25.6% 25.6% 25.3%
Telecom Egypt EGP 19.3 10.1% 10.6% 11.6% 13.2% 13.3% 9.9% 9.3% 12.8% 15.7% 15.8% 12.4% 12.5% 14.4% 17.0% 17.2% 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 33.5% 30.4% 32.6% 31.9% 30.6%
Telefonica O2 CR CZK 432.8 12.1% 13.8% 14.5% 14.4% 15.9% 21.2% 26.7% 29.2% 29.3% 32.9% 15.7% 19.0% 20.0% 19.6% 21.4% 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.6 27.3% 24.5% 24.5% 22.8% 22.9%
Telkom ZAX 3335.0 25.2% 15.2% 6.8% 6.5% 6.2% 41.4% 19.0% 12.8% 12.6% 11.7% 32.8% 15.4% 11.2% 10.7% 10.1% 2.0 1.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 10.4% -0.6% 3.9% 5.1% 5.6%
TPSA PLN 16.5 12.6% 12.5% 8.2% 8.2% 8.8% 18.6% 19.9% 14.0% 15.5% 17.2% 12.8% 13.6% 9.5% 10.1% 10.9% 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.6 20.8% 18.8% 21.2% 16.5% 16.6%
Turk Telekom TRY 5.1 31.1% 23.3% 27.7% 27.7% 29.0% 35.3% 40.3% 35.9% 37.9% 38.5% 26.2% 29.0% 25.9% 27.5% 28.1% nm 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.7 27.5% 20.3% 16.4% 20.6% 20.1%
Turkcell $ 19.3 27.5% 32.9% 23.1% 22.4% 20.9% 80.6% 80.4% 52.3% 44.3% 41.5% 56.2% 61.0% 43.7% 38.1% 35.8% 5.9 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.3 26.2% 21.6% 6.8% 16.2% 20.2%
Vimpelcom $ 20.3 29.7% 12.3% 28.7% 36.2% 36.7% 40.5% 33.3% 30.2% 42.4% 47.0% 32.3% 25.9% 21.8% 29.2% 32.5% 6.0 1.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 22.6% 18.9% 27.4% 23.7% 23.2%
Vodacom ZAX 5384.0 75.5% 48.9% 54.1% 51.4% 42.0% 89.0% 66.7% 50.6% 59.5% 53.0% 70.5% 45.7% 32.8% 41.1% 38.9% nm nm 3.0 2.8 2.6 12.2% 3.3% 13.1% 12.9% 13.2%
Wataniya KWD 1.5 27.4% 23.9% 19.6% 20.8% 23.5% 23.4% 38.0% 51.0% 54.4% 63.2% 14.9% 20.9% 21.0% 20.0% 22.5% 0.3 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.4 6.8% 11.3% 13.5% 13.6% 18.3%
Zain KWD 1.0 21.8% 16.9% 11.6% 15.5% 17.3% 34.0% 24.8% 36.1% 37.8% 41.0% 15.9% 9.0% 13.2% 15.1% 17.8% 2.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 -3.5% -4.7% 17.4% 17.6% 16.1%
Zain KSA SAR 10.2 nm -15.2% -21.5% -22.9% -13.6% 0.0% -95.9% -68.1% -31.9% -0.5% nm -6.8% -7.3% -5.2% -0.1% nm 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 nm -744.8% -41.7% -22.8% -5.6%
Sector 25.1% 21.7% 19.4% 20.9% 21.5% 44.5% 42.4% 38.0% 40.4% 42.4% 24.3% 21.7% 18.7% 20.6% 21.7% 2.6 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.9 20.8% 16.3% 22.9% 23.1% 23.9%

Source: UBS estimates, unless otherwise stated. * Growth rates for underlying financial quantities, not the multiples; prices as of 13/01/10
 Others - (1) Valuation
EV/EBITDA 2008-11E Current Target % Mkt Cap Absolute performance*** Relative to DJS Telecoms
Price 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* Price Price diff Rating loc. bn €bn $bn Freefloat 1m 2m 3m 12m YTD 1m 2m 3m 12m YTD
Fastweb € 18.50 5.6 4.9 4.7 4.3 5.4% 18.5 19.5 5.4% Neutral € 1.5 1.5 2.1 18% -6.8% -3.4% -10.9% -5.5% -6.7% -5.5% -7.4% -6.7% -23.3% -20.1%
___ISP___

Freenet € 9.24 4.7 4.8 3.4 2.8 2.9% 9.2 15.5 67.7% Buy € 1.2 1.2 1.7 49% -3.1% -0.4% 122.7% -1.9% -3.8% -1.9% -0.3% -3.8% 96.5% 113.4%
Iliad € 84.03 7.6 7.7 6.1 5.5 17.3% 84.0 74.0 -11.9% Neutral (CBE) € 4.6 4.6 6.6 26% 3.8% 12.0% 35.5% 5.1% 8.6% 5.1% 7.8% 8.6% 30.0% 26.3%
United Internet € 9.82 5.1 7.0 6.2 5.2 5.7% 9.8 16.0 62.9% Buy (CBE) € 2.3 2.3 3.3 55% 8.7% -5.8% 56.1% 10.0% -9.2% 10.0% 7.0% -9.2% 52.9% 46.9%
Virgin Media $ 16.61 6.1 5.8 5.1 4.5 5.3% 16.6 nm nm Buy $ 5.5 3.8 5.5 94% -0.8% 20.9% 232.9% 0.5% 17.5% 0.5% 2.7% 17.5% 264.6% 223.7%
Cable & Wireless £ 1.46 4.8 3.9 3.6 3.2 10.1% 1.5 1.4 -3.8% Neutral £ 3.6 4.0 5.8 100% 2.5% 3.9% -7.0% 3.8% 0.6% 3.8% 8.3% 0.6% -11.3% -16.2%
____telecoms & cable_____

Elisa € 15.55 5.9 6.9 6.1 5.2 -0.6% 15.6 9.5 -38.9% Sell € 2.6 2.6 3.7 90% 4.3% 10.8% 26.4% 5.6% 7.4% 5.6% 10.6% 7.4% 19.5% 17.2%
Inmarsat £ 6.83 8.6 10.9 9.2 8.3 9.2% 6.8 7.2 5.4% Buy £ 3.1 3.5 5.1 72% 3.6% 28.0% 44.9% 4.9% 24.7% 4.9% 5.9% 24.7% 64.0% 35.6%
Sonaecom € 1.97 4.6 6.4 6.1 5.5 7.7% 2.0 2.5 27.0% Buy € 0.7 0.7 1.0 20% 8.8% -4.3% 95.9% 10.1% -7.7% 10.1% 5.9% -7.7% 75.1% 86.7%
ZON Multimedia € 4.50 7.9 8.4 7.1 6.1 7.1% 4.5 5.5 22.2% Buy € 1.4 1.4 2.0 22% 7.7% -7.3% 21.3% 8.9% -10.6% 8.9% 4.9% -10.6% 4.1% 12.1%
Telenet € 20.52 6.7 7.1 6.4 5.9 9.0% 20.5 20.0 -2.5% Buy € 2.3 2.3 3.3 40% 6.7% 13.4% 66.8% 8.0% 10.0% 8.0% 10.7% 10.0% 50.5% 57.6%
Tele2 SEK 110.20 5.3 5.7 5.3 4.1 9.9% 110.2 110.0 -0.2% Neutral SEK 53.9 5.3 7.6 72% -1.1% 17.1% 59.7% 0.2% 13.8% 0.2% 2.4% 13.8% 44.0% 50.5%
Mobistar € 46.00 5.9 5.6 5.3 5.0 -3.4% 46.0 45.5 -1.1% Neutral € 2.9 2.9 4.1 26% -5.1% -2.3% -10.9% -3.9% -5.7% -3.9% -2.7% -5.7% -23.3% -20.1%
Bouygues € 37.52 3.9 5.7 6.4 5.8 -3.7% 37.5 31.0 -17.4% Sell € 12.9 12.9 18.6 65% 9.3% 2.6% 24.2% 9.3% 2.6% 9.3% 6.7% 2.6% 26.2% 24.2%
Sector 5.3 6.1 5.8 5.2 3.5% 48.7 70.6 -1.3% 3.3% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0%

EV/OpFCF 2008-11E EV/FCF 2008-11E Revenue growth 2008-11E EBITDA growth 2008-11E OpFCF growth 2008-11E
Price 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR*
Fastweb € 18.50 36.0 20.9 11.6 9.1 52.8% 283.5 38.3 21.3 15.0 157.8% 19.2% 8.6% 4.0% 3.0% 5.1% 26.2% 8.6% 3.9% 3.7% 5.4% 161.9% 65.1% 77.0% 22.1% 52.8%
___ISP___

Freenet € 9.24 8.5 5.7 3.9 3.3 19.2% 8.5 6.9 4.4 3.7 14.3% 63.5% 19.2% -0.5% -1.6% 5.3% 40.7% 10.3% 1.9% -3.1% 2.9% 2480.0% 67.0% 5.1% -3.4% 19.2%
Iliad € 84.03 28.5 25.5 14.1 10.9 45.8% 43.3 38.9 21.6 16.5 45.6% 29.1% 25.9% 7.8% 4.5% 12.3% 18.5% 25.8% 21.3% 5.8% 17.3% 84.3% 42.2% 75.4% 24.2% 45.8%
United Internet € 9.82 5.9 10.4 7.1 5.9 6.3% 5.9 14.1 10.2 8.5 -5.8% 10.9% 1.7% 0.8% 4.5% 2.3% 9.9% 8.8% 1.1% 7.3% 5.7% 18.5% -15.8% 31.5% 8.4% 6.3%
Virgin Media $ 16.61 9.8 10.6 9.3 7.7 2.4% 9.8 10.6 9.3 7.7 2.4% -7.3% 0.2% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.9% 0.5% 8.0% 7.6% 5.3% 11.2% -12.0% 8.7% 12.3% 2.4%
Cable & Wireless £ 1.46 10.9 7.9 6.9 6.1 17.0% 11.7 8.6 7.9 7.0 14.5% 15.7% 2.6% 3.7% 3.4% 3.2% 39.4% 18.7% 8.0% 4.2% 10.1% 106.2% 33.6% 14.0% 5.1% 17.0%
____telecoms & cable_____

Elisa € 15.55 9.4 10.9 10.0 8.5 -1.3% 12.1 14.7 13.5 11.5 -3.0% -5.3% -5.2% -0.9% -1.9% -2.7% -1.6% -1.7% 1.0% -1.1% -0.6% 5.8% -0.6% -3.2% -0.2% -1.3%
Inmarsat £ 6.83 14.3 15.9 11.6 10.3 20.3% 20.3 22.5 16.3 14.6 20.6% 72.9% 5.0% 7.6% 5.5% 6.0% 36.9% 10.2% 11.4% 6.1% 9.2% 83.2% 25.3% 29.1% 7.6% 20.3%
Sonaecom € 1.97 -23.4 nm nm 19.5 nm -23.4 nm nm 26.0 nm 9.4% -3.7% 0.6% 1.7% -0.5% -1.0% 8.4% 3.9% 10.8% 7.7% -3862.5% 144.5% 108.7% 90.4% 113.3%
ZON Multimedia € 4.50 23.0 28.1 15.2 10.5 27.2% 33.1 37.9 20.6 14.3 29.7% 8.5% 6.3% 5.0% 4.9% 5.4% 11.0% 8.0% 6.7% 6.5% 7.1% 19.2% -5.5% 66.5% 31.0% 27.2%
Telenet € 20.52 13.1 15.0 11.2 9.6 15.7% -41.5 30.8 18.7 15.0 nm 9.3% 14.4% 6.9% 4.5% 8.5% 14.0% 17.7% 6.7% 3.2% 9.0% 10.8% 8.6% 27.6% 11.8% 15.7%
Tele2 SEK 110.20 13.9 11.4 12.5 9.4 15.3% 14.5 14.3 15.6 12.0 7.6% 2.9% 0.7% 2.3% 2.9% 2.0% 35.9% 20.6% 0.4% 9.6% 9.9% 874.3% 59.8% -14.7% 12.4% 15.3%
Mobistar € 46.00 8.1 7.7 10.3 7.3 -5.3% 12.0 11.6 15.1 10.8 -5.2% 1.7% 0.8% 4.4% 0.7% 1.9% -0.1% -4.7% -2.6% -2.9% -3.4% -3.1% -5.2% -30.5% 29.1% -5.3%
Bouygues € 37.52 7.8 9.4 11.5 10.3 0.0% 10.7 12.5 15.1 14.0 0.2% 9.6% -3.9% -4.1% 1.3% -2.3% 4.1% -5.2% -12.0% 7.0% -3.7% 3.0% 15.2% -19.0% 7.0% 0.0%
Sector (€) 10.8 11.2 10.5 8.9 9.5% 15.2 15.3 14.1 12.0 11.1% 11.4% 0.4% -0.8% 1.8% 0.4% 12.5% 4.9% 0.3% 5.3% 3.5% 31.9% 16.3% 2.1% 10.5% 9.5%

P/E (adj) 2008-11E Dividend yield 2008-11E EBITDA margin Net debt/EBITDA EPS growth 2008-11E
Price 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR*
Fastweb € 18.50 -105.1 30.4 29.7 14.7 nm 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% nm 28.6% 30.3% 30.3% 30.3% 30.5% 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.0 91.8% 445.9% 2.2% 102.4% 124.3%
___ISP___

Freenet € 9.24 15.4 12.6 9.8 9.4 17.9% 0.0% 2.2% 3.8% 4.3% nm 13.5% 11.6% 10.7% 11.0% 10.8% 0.1 3.7 2.7 1.9 1.3 -38.2% 22.2% 27.7% 5.0% 17.9%
Iliad € 84.03 37.8 23.5 16.3 14.7 37.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 33.0% 36.2% 33.2% 33.2% 37.3% 37.8% 0.3 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 -11.6% 61.1% 43.7% 11.1% 37.0%
United Internet € 9.82 14.4 12.8 10.8 9.5 14.8% 0.0% 2.0% 2.7% 3.6% nm 19.5% 19.3% 20.7% 20.8% 21.3% 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.3 -0.1 9.8% 12.6% 18.6% 13.3% 14.8%
Virgin Media $ 16.61 -9.1 -13.4 -243.6 21.9 nm 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 14.0% 30.8% 33.9% 34.0% 35.9% 37.9% 4.5 4.8 4.5 3.9 3.3 20.4% 32.0% 94.5% 1210.8% 222.9%
Cable & Wireless £ 1.46 11.7 11.5 10.6 10.0 5.5% 5.8% 6.5% 6.9% 7.0% 6.2% 18.3% 22.1% 25.6% 26.6% 26.8% -0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 65.2% 1.5% 8.5% 6.4% 5.5%
____telecoms & cable_____

Elisa € 15.55 13.4 14.0 12.6 10.9 7.0% 3.9% 4.3% 4.7% 5.0% 8.8% 31.3% 32.5% 33.7% 34.4% 34.7% 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 -12.5% -4.5% 11.2% 15.4% 7.0%
Inmarsat £ 6.83 14.3 29.8 21.6 18.4 -8.1% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 3.2% 5.0% 67.3% 53.3% 55.9% 57.9% 58.2% 3.8 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.7 266.4% -52.0% 37.8% 17.3% -8.1%
Sonaecom € 1.97 138.7 132.4 41.4 22.0 84.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 2.3% nm 18.1% 16.4% 18.5% 19.1% 20.8% 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 -85.8% 4.7% 219.9% 88.3% 84.8%
ZON Multimedia € 4.50 28.3 20.5 17.3 14.2 25.8% 5.6% 3.6% 5.1% 5.1% -3.1% 30.8% 31.5% 32.0% 32.5% 33.0% 1.0 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.5 -33.1% 38.3% 18.1% 21.9% 25.8%
Telenet € 20.52 124.7 30.2 18.1 17.6 91.9% 0.0% 2.4% 2.9% 3.2% nm 47.6% 49.6% 51.0% 50.9% 50.3% 4.3 4.4 3.6 3.1 2.8 -17.4% 312.3% 66.9% 2.7% 91.9%
Tele2 SEK 110.20 22.5 14.3 12.3 10.2 30.0% 3.2% 3.6% 4.1% 4.5% 12.6% 14.7% 19.4% 23.2% 22.8% 24.3% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 500.2% 57.6% 16.0% 20.2% 30.0%
Mobistar € 46.00 10.1 10.6 11.0 11.5 -4.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 38.5% 37.8% 35.7% 33.3% 32.1% 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 -0.8% -4.2% -4.1% -4.5% -4.3%
Bouygues € 37.52 8.8 10.1 12.1 11.8 -9.5% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 1.0% 12.2% 11.6% 11.4% 10.5% 11.1% 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.0 7.6% -13.4% -16.2% 2.2% -9.5%
Sector (€) 16.1 15.8 14.1 12.6 8.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 7.0% 18.1% 18.3% 19.1% 19.3% 20.0% 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.3 36.2% 1.7% 12.0% 12.0% 8.5%

Source: UBS estimates & Reuters. * Growth rates for underlying financial quantities, not the multiples. Prices and data are in local currency; prices as of 13/01/10 ** Rel perf is calculated as 'stock return - index return' *** Absolute perf returns are the % change in price over the period
 Others - (2) Multiples evolution
Adj. PE 2009 forecasts at month end Sector Adj. PE 1 year forward at month end
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10
_________telecoms & cable_________ _____ISP______

Fastweb € 18.50 215.0 178.0 ▼ 211.4 ▲ 205.7 ▼ 193.3 ▼ 212.7 ▲ 30.3 ▼ 31.5 ▲ 31.8 ▲ 31.6 ▼ 31.7 ▲ 30.4 ▼
Freenet € 9.24 3.5 5.2 ▲ 5.3 ▲ 7.0 ▲ 8.0 ▲ 9.7 ▲ 10.9 ▲ 10.9 ▼ 10.5 ▼ 13.0 ▲ 12.8 ▼ 12.6 ▼
MSCI Europe Other
Iliad € 84.03 18.7 20.8 ▲ 23.7 ▲ 23.3 ▼ 20.5 ▼ 22.2 ▲ 21.2 ▼ 21.5 ▲ 20.6 ▼ 22.4 ▲ 23.3 ▲ 23.5
United Internet € 9.82 7.2 8.0 ▲ 10.2 ▲ 11.7 ▲ 10.7 ▼ 11.5 ▲ 12.9 ▲ 13.5 ▲ 11.8 ▼ 11.7 ▼ 12.0 ▲ 12.8 ▲ 40
Virgin Media $ 16.61 -6.3 -6.3 ▼ -10.3 ▼ -12.4 ▼ -13.3 ▼ -13.5 ▼ -14.1 ▼ -17.1 ▼ -17.9 ▼ -21.1 ▼ -13.3 ▲ -13.4
Cable & Wireless £ 1.46 7.7 7.8 ▲ 8.4 ▲ 7.7 ▼ 7.6 ▼ 9.9 ▲ 10.1 ▲ 9.8 ▼ 10.0 ▲ 9.8 ▼ 9.8 ▼ 11.5 ▲ 20
Elisa € 15.55 7.9 9.7 ▲ 8.9 ▼ 9.2 ▲ 10.3 ▲ 11.3 ▲ 12.1 ▲ 12.6 ▲ 11.9 ▼ 13.0 ▲ 14.4 ▲ 14.0 ▼
Inmarsat £ 6.83 5.5 6.2 ▲ 6.3 ▲ 6.2 ▼ 6.4 ▲ 6.6 ▲ 6.4 ▼ 9.1 ▲ 9.0 ▼ 10.2 ▲ 11.5 ▲ 29.8 ▲
0
Sonaecom € 1.97 8.9 11.9 ▲ 15.1 ▲ 15.1 ▲ 14.0 ▼ 14.7 ▲ 14.6 ▼ 126.1 ▲ 120.2 ▼ 119.7 ▼ 129.9 ▲ 132.4 ▲

May-07

May-08

May-09
Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09
Jan-07

Mar-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

Jul-09

Jan-10
Nov-07

Nov-08

Nov-09
ZON Multimedia € 4.50 12.4 13.2 ▲ 15.6 ▲ 15.1 ▼ 14.3 ▼ 15.0 ▲ 15.7 ▲ 22.2 ▲ 20.7 ▼ 19.4 ▼ 19.7 ▲ 20.5 ▲
Telenet € 20.52 17.5 20.6 ▲ 23.8 ▲ 21.1 ▼ 22.7 ▲ 24.2 ▲ 24.5 ▲ 26.6 ▲ 26.8 ▲ 26.7 ▼ 29.4 ▲ 30.2 ▲
Tele2 SEK 110.20 8.2 8.8 ▲ 11.2 ▲ 11.0 ▼ 11.3 ▲ 13.5 ▲ 13.1 ▼ 12.6 ▼ 14.3 ▲ 14.5 ▲ 14.3 ▼ 14.3
Mobistar € 46.00 10.7 10.4 ▼ 11.0 ▲ 10.6 ▼ 10.7 ▲ 10.9 ▲ 10.4 ▼ 10.9 ▲ 10.8 ▼ 10.8 ▼ 11.0 ▲ 10.6 ▼
Bouygues € 37.52 7.9 9.0 ▲ 10.4 ▲ 10.5 ▲ 9.7 ▼ 9.5 ▼ 9.8 ▲ 10.1 ▲
Sector 17.5 20.6 ▲ 23.8 ▲ 21.1 ▼ 22.7 ▲ 24.2 ▲ 24.5 ▲ 26.6 ▲ 26.8 ▲ 26.7 ▼ 29.4 ▲ 15.8 ▼ Source: UBS Quantitative Research, Data Solutions Team

Dividend yield 2009 forecasts at month end Sector Dividend yield 1 year forward at month end
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10
_________telecoms & cable_________ _____ISP______

Fastweb € 18.50
Freenet € 9.24 5.8% 4.3% ▼ 4.1% 3.2% ▼ 2.8% ▼ 2.3% ▼ 2.1% ▼ 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 8% MSCI Europe Other
Iliad € 84.03 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% ▼ 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
6%
United Internet € 9.82 3.6% 3.2% ▼ 2.5% ▼ 2.2% ▼ 2.4% ▲ 2.2% ▼ 2.0% ▼ 1.9% 2.3% ▲ 2.2% 2.2% 2.0%
Virgin Media $ 16.61 2.6% 2.5% 1.6% ▼ 1.4% ▼ 1.3% 1.0% ▼ 0.9% 0.8% ▼ 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 1.0% ▲ 4%
Cable & Wireless £ 1.46 7.5% 7.4% 6.9% ▼ 7.7% ▲ 7.8% 6.7% ▼ 6.5% ▼ 6.8% ▲ 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% 6.5% ▼
Elisa € 15.55 7.7% 6.2% ▼ 6.8% ▲ 6.5% ▼ 5.8% ▼ 5.3% ▼ 5.0% ▼ 4.7% ▼ 5.0% ▲ 4.6% ▼ 4.2% ▼ 4.3%
2%
Inmarsat £ 6.83 11.1% 9.8% ▼ 10.2% ▲ 10.5% ▲ 10.1% ▼ 10.1% 10.4% ▲ 9.2% ▼ 9.3% 8.2% ▼ 7.4% ▼ 2.9% ▼ 0%
Sonaecom € 1.97

May-07

May-08

May-09
Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09
Jan-07

Mar-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

Jul-09

Jan-10
Nov-07

Nov-08

Nov-09
ZON Multimedia € 4.50 11.4% 10.7% ▼ 5.6% ▼ 5.8% ▲ 6.1% ▲ 5.8% ▼ 5.6% ▼ 4.0% ▼ 4.3% ▲ 4.4% ▲ 4.3% 3.6%
Telenet € 20.52 3.9% ▲ 3.4% ▼ 3.6% ▲ 3.3% ▼ 3.1% ▼ 3.0% 2.8% ▼ 2.8% 2.8% 2.5% ▼ 2.4%
Tele2 SEK 110.20 5.9% 5.8% ▼ 5.2% ▼ 5.3% 5.1% 4.1% ▼ 4.0% 4.3% ▲ 3.8% ▼ 3.7% 3.6% 3.6%
Mobistar € 46.00 6.1% 6.3% ▲ 6.4% 6.6% ▲ 6.6% 6.5% 6.5% 6.1% ▼ 6.2% 6.2% 6.1% 6.3%
Bouygues € 37.52 6.1% 5.5% 4.8% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8% 4.4% 4.3%
Sector 5.1% 5.1% 4.5% ▼ 4.6% 4.6% 4.2% ▼ 4.0% 3.8% ▼ 3.8% 3.9% 3.7% ▼ 3.4% ▼ Source: UBS Quantitative Research, Data Solutions Team

EV/EBITDA 2009 forecasts at month end Net debt/EBITDA 2009 forecasts at month end
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10
_________telecoms & cable_________ _____ISP______

Fastweb € 18.50 5.3 4.8 ▲ 5.0 ▲ 4.9 4.8 ▼ 5.0 ▲ 5.0 5.0 5.1 ▲ 5.0 ▼ 5.1 4.9 ▼ 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 ▼ 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Freenet € 9.24 3.8 4.5 ▲ 3.8 ▼ 3.9 ▲ 4.2 ▲ 4.5 ▲ 4.7 ▲ 4.7 4.8 4.9 ▲ 4.9 4.8 ▼ 2.2 2.7 ▲ 2.7 2.5 ▼ 2.5 2.5 2.4 ▼ 2.4 2.4 2.7 ▲ 2.7 2.7
Iliad € 84.03 7.3 8.0 ▲ 6.9 ▼ 6.8 ▼ 6.3 ▼ 6.7 ▲ 6.5 ▼ 6.9 ▲ 6.8 ▼ 7.4 ▲ 7.6 ▲ 7.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 ▲ 1.0 1.0 1.0 ▲ 1.0 1.1 ▲ 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
United Internet € 9.82 4.4 5.2 ▲ 5.6 ▲ 6.1 ▲ 6.2 6.5 ▲ 7.1 ▲ 6.8 ▼ 6.5 ▼ 6.5 6.6 ▲ 7.0 ▲ 0.9 0.9 ▲ 1.0 ▲ 1.1 ▲ 1.1 1.1 ▼ 0.7 ▼ 0.7 0.9 ▲ 0.8 ▼ 0.8 0.8
Virgin Media $ 16.61 3.6 4.1 ▲ 4.5 ▲ 4.4 ▼ 4.7 ▲ 5.2 ▲ 5.2 5.4 ▲ 5.5 ▲ 5.8 ▲ 5.9 5.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 ▼ 4.6 ▲ 4.6 4.6 ▲ 4.5 ▼ 4.5 4.5 ▼ 4.5 4.5 4.5 ▼
Cable & Wireless £ 1.46 3.3 2.9 ▲ 3.6 ▲ 3.1 ▼ 3.1 ▼ 3.4 ▲ 3.5 ▲ 3.4 ▼ 3.5 ▲ 5.2 ▲ 5.1 ▼ 3.9 ▼ 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 ▲ 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 ▲
Elisa € 15.55 4.7 4.8 ▲ 5.1 ▲ 5.0 5.6 ▲ 5.8 ▲ 6.3 ▲ 6.3 6.3 6.6 ▲ 6.9 ▲ 6.9 1.4 1.5 ▲ 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 ▲ 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Inmarsat £ 6.83 6.5 7.1 ▲ 8.0 ▲ 8.8 ▲ 9.6 ▲ 9.6 9.1 ▼ 9.4 ▲ 9.6 ▲ 10.7 ▲ 10.6 10.9 ▲ 1.7 1.7 1.9 ▲ 2.0 ▲ 2.0 2.0 ▲ 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 ▼ 2.2 ▲
Sonaecom € 1.97 4.1 4.8 ▲ 5.6 ▲ 5.9 ▲ 5.4 ▼ 5.5 5.6 ▲ 6.3 ▲ 6.2 ▼ 6.1 ▼ 6.0 6.4 ▲ 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 ▲ 2.3 2.4 ▲ 2.4 2.4
ZON Multimedia € 4.50 6.5 5.9 ▲ 7.8 ▲ 7.8 7.5 ▼ 7.7 ▲ 7.9 ▲ 8.6 ▲ 8.3 ▼ 8.2 ▼ 8.3 ▲ 8.4 2.5 2.5 3.0 ▲ 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 ▲ 3.1 3.1 ▲ 3.1 3.1
Telenet € 20.52 5.6 5.8 ▲ 6.2 ▲ 6.1 ▼ 6.3 ▲ 6.5 ▲ 6.4 6.6 ▲ 6.7 ▲ 6.7 6.8 ▲ 7.1 ▲ 3.2 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
Tele2 SEK 110.20 3.9 4.0 ▲ 4.5 ▲ 4.5 4.7 ▲ 5.3 ▲ 5.2 ▼ 4.9 ▼ 5.5 ▲ 5.7 ▲ 5.7 5.7 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Mobistar € 46.00 5.5 5.1 ▲ 5.6 ▲ 5.5 5.3 ▼ 5.3 5.5 ▲ 5.8 ▲ 5.6 ▼ 5.7 ▲ 5.8 ▲ 5.6 ▼ 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Bouygues € 37.52 6.0 6.4 ▲ 7.0 ▲ 7.0 7.0 6.1 ▼ 5.5 ▼ 5.7 ▲
Sector 5.1 5.2 5.5 ▲ 5.6 5.7 ▲ 6.0 ▲ 6.2 ▲ 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.1 ▼ 6.1 1.9 2.0 ▲ 2.1 ▲ 2.1 ▲ 1.5 ▼ 1.5 ▲ 1.4 ▼ 1.4 ▼ 1.4 ▲ 1.4 ▼ 1.4 ▼ 1.4 ▲

Source: UBS estimates & Reuters. The arrows show the direction of the multiples change. Prices and data are in local currency; prices as of 13/01/10
 Others - (3) Forecasts evolution
Revenue 2009 forecasts at month end 2009 Revenue growth over last 6 months
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10
Fastweb € 18.50 1,798 1,798 1,798 1,798 1,798 1,798 1,854 ▲ 1,854 1,854 1,854 1,854 1,854
Freenet € 9.24 3,962 3,858 ▼ 3,858 3,793 ▼ 3,793 3,793 3,639 ▼ 3,639 3,639 3,633 ▼ 3,633 3,633 15%
_________telecoms & cable_________ ___ISP___

Iliad € 84.03 1,940 1,940 1,956 ▲ 1,956 1,956 1,969 ▲ 1,969 1,970 ▲ 1,970 1,970 1,970 1,970
United Internet € 9.82 1,729 1,718 ▼ 1,719 ▲ 1,719 1,719 1,708 ▼ 1,675 ▼ 1,675 1,675 1,677 ▲ 1,677 1,677
Virgin Media $ 16.61 5% 3.1%
4,013 4,013 3,865 ▼ 3,778 ▼ 3,778 3,778 3,766 ▼ 3,766 3,786 ▲ 3,786 3,786 3,786 1.5% 1.5%
0.1% 0.2%
Cable & Wireless £ 1.46 4,430 4,430 4,430 4,362 ▼ 4,362 3,932 ▼ 3,932 3,932 3,939 ▲ 3,939 3,939 3,741 ▼
Elisa € 15.55 1,508 1,436 ▼ 1,436 1,436 1,436 1,436 1,436 1,408 ▼ 1,408 1,408 1,408 1,408
Inmarsat £ 6.83 1,074 1,074 1,047 ▼ 1,047 1,047 1,047 1,047 1,047 1,047 1,047 1,047 1,047 -5% -1.8% -2.5% -2.6%
Sonaecom € 1.97 991 991 991 991 991 991 991 929 ▼ 929 940 ▲ 940 940 -4.2% -4.8% -5.1% -5.2%
-6.6%
ZON Multimedia € 4.50 857 857 847 ▼ 847 847 847 847 822 ▼ 822 825 ▲ 825 825
Telenet € 20.52 1,146 1,148 ▲ 1,148 1,149 ▲ 1,149 1,149 ▼ 1,165 ▲ 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 -15%

Inmarsat

Tele2
Fastweb

Iliad

Internet

Telenet
Media

Sonae
Elisa
Freenet

ZON

Mobistar
Tele2 SEK 110.20 39,618 39,989 ▲ 40,793 ▲ 40,793 40,793 40,663 ▼ 39,814 ▼ 39,206 ▼ 39,206 39,206 38,541 ▼ 38,541

C&W
Virgin
United
Mobistar € 46.00 1,555 1,555 1,556 ▲ 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,599 ▲ 1,599 1,599 1,599 1,579 ▼ 1,579
Bouygues € 37.52 31,244 ▼ 31,199 ▼ 31,199 31,199 31,199 31,512 ▲ 31,174 ▼ 31,174
Sector 29.33 28.89 ▼ 29.21 ▲ 29.08 ▼ 60.55 ▲ 60.17 ▼ 59.75 ▼ 59.23 ▼ 59.35 ▲ 59.48 ▲ 59.44 ▼ 59.12 ▼

EBITDA 2009 forecasts at month end 2009 EBITDA growth over last 6 months
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10
Fastweb € 18.50 549 549 549 549 549 549 562 ▲ 562 562 562 562 562
Freenet € 9.24 527 412 ▼ 412 415 ▲ 415 415 414 ▼ 414 414 390 ▼ 390 390
_________telecoms & cable_________ ___ISP___

Iliad € 84.03 657 657 657 ▲ 657 657 657 ▼ 657 653 ▼ 653 653 653 653 15%
United Internet € 9.82 332 332 ▼ 332 ▲ 332 332 332 ▲ 337 ▲ 337 337 ▼ 347 ▲ 347 347 8.3%
7.1%
Virgin Media $ 16.61 1,280 1,280 1,279 ▼ 1,277 ▼ 1,277 1,277 1,259 ▼ 1,259 1,285 ▲ 1,285 1,285 1,285 4.5%
Cable & Wireless £ 1.46 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,091 ▼ 1,091 1,010 ▼ 1,010 1,010 1,010 ▼ 1,010 1,010 956 ▼
2.5%
0.7%
Elisa € 15.55 505 477 ▼ 477 477 477 477 477 475 ▼ 475 475 475 475 0%
Inmarsat £ 6.83 663 663 643 ▼ 643 643 634 ▼ 634 634 634 634 652 ▲ 586 ▼ -0.6%
Sonaecom € 1.97 184 184 184 184 184 184 184 178 ▼ 178 174 ▼ 174 174 -5.4% -5.1%
-4.0%
-5.9% -6.0%
ZON Multimedia € 4.50 278 278 267 ▼ 267 267 267 267 259 ▼ 259 264 ▲ 264 264
Telenet € 20.52 555 564 ▲ 564 570 ▲ 575 ▲ 575 ▼ 595 ▲ 595 595 595 595 595 -15% -11.6%
-14.1%

Inmarsat

Tele2
Fastweb

Iliad

Internet

Telenet
Media

Sonae
Elisa
Freenet

ZON

Mobistar
C&W
Virgin
Tele2 SEK 110.20 8,254 8,221 ▼ 8,449 ▲ 8,449 8,449 8,625 ▲ 8,789 ▲ 8,662 ▼ 8,662 8,662 8,938 ▲ 8,938

United
Mobistar € 46.00 587 587 562 ▼ 562 562 562 ▼ 563 ▲ 563 563 563 564 ▲ 564
Bouygues € 37.52 3,062 ▼ 3,017 ▼ 3,017 3,017 3,017 3,319 ▲ 3,554 ▲ 3,554
Sector 8.12 7.88 ▼ 7.96 ▲ 7.96 ▲ 11.10 ▲ 11.00 ▼ 10.96 ▼ 10.82 ▼ 10.88 ▲ 11.11 ▲ 11.50 ▲ 11.36 ▼

Adj. EPS 2009 forecasts at month end 2009 EPS growth over last 6 months
Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 13-Jan-10
Fastweb € 18.50 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.61 ▲ 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61
6.3% 7.3% 5.7%
Freenet € 9.24 0.97 0.91 ▼ 0.91 0.89 ▼ 0.89 0.89 0.86 ▼ 0.86 0.86 0.74 ▼ 0.74 0.74
_________telecoms & cable_________ ___ISP___

2.1%
Iliad € 84.03 3.37 3.37 3.37 ▲ 3.37 3.37 3.37 ▼ 3.37 3.58 ▲ 3.58 3.58 3.58 3.58
0%
United Internet € 9.82 0.78 0.78 ▲ 0.78 ▲ 0.78 ▼ 0.78 0.78 ▲ 0.77 ▼ 0.77 0.75 ▼ 0.77 ▲ 0.77 0.77 -1.6% -1.1% -2.6%
Virgin Media $ 16.61 -0.76 -0.76 -0.75 ▲ -0.70 ▲ -0.70 -0.77 ▼ -0.81 ▼ -0.81 -0.78 ▲ -0.78 -0.78 -0.76 ▲
Cable & Wireless £ 1.46 17.83 17.83 17.83 17.55 ▼ 17.55 14.63 ▼ 14.63 14.63 14.45 ▼ 14.45 14.45 12.62 ▼ -15%
-13.7%
Elisa € 15.55 1.29 1.14 ▼ 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.11 ▼ 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 -17.4% -17.4%

Inmarsat £ 6.83 0.55 0.55 0.52 ▼ 0.52 ▼ 0.52 0.50 ▼ 0.50 0.38 ▼ 0.38 0.38 0.37 ▼ 0.37 -25.6%
-30%
Sonaecom € 1.97 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.02 ▼ 0.02 0.01 ▼ 0.01 0.01
ZON Multimedia € 4.50 0.30 0.30 0.27 ▼ 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.21 ▼ 0.21 0.22 ▲ 0.22 0.22
Telenet € 20.52 0.79 0.62 ▼ 0.62 0.67 ▲ 0.67 0.66 ▼ 0.68 ▲ 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 -45%

Inmarsat

Tele2
Iliad

Internet

Telenet
Media

Sonae
Elisa
Freenet

ZON

Mobistar
C&W
Virgin
United
Tele2 SEK 110.20 8.23 7.93 ▼ 6.90 ▼ 6.90 6.90 7.19 ▲ 7.52 ▲ 7.37 ▼ 7.37 7.37 7.72 ▲ 7.72
Mobistar € 46.00 4.59 4.59 4.12 ▼ 4.12 4.12 4.12 ▼ 4.34 ▲ 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.35 ▲ 4.35
Bouygues € 37.52 3.40 ▼ 3.32 ▼ 3.32 3.32 3.32 3.48 ▲ 3.71 ▲ 3.71
Sector

Source: UBS estimates & Reuters. The arrows show the direction of the forecast change. Prices and data are in local currency; prices as of 13/01/10
 Others - (4) Forecasts
Revenue Revenue growth 2008-11E Core EBITDA EBITDA growth 2008-11E EBITDA margin
Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Fastweb € 18.50 1,433 1,708 1,854 1,928 1,986 19.2% 8.6% 4.0% 3.0% 7.8% 410 518 562 584 606 26.2% 8.6% 3.9% 3.7% 8.2% 28.6% 30.3% 30.3% 30.3% 30.5%
___ISP___

Freenet € 9.24 1,863 3,047 3,633 3,613 3,555 63.5% 19.2% -0.5% -1.6% 8.0% 252 354 390 398 385 40.7% 10.3% 1.9% -3.1% 4.3% 13.5% 11.6% 10.7% 11.0% 10.8%
Iliad € 84.03 1,212 1,565 1,970 2,125 2,219 29.1% 25.9% 7.8% 4.5% 19.1% 438 519 653 792 839 18.5% 25.8% 21.3% 5.8% 27.1% 36.2% 33.2% 33.2% 37.3% 37.8%
United Internet € 9.82 1,487 1,650 1,677 1,690 1,767 10.9% 1.7% 0.8% 4.5% 3.5% 290 319 347 351 376 9.9% 8.8% 1.1% 7.3% 8.7% 19.5% 19.3% 20.7% 20.8% 21.3%
Virgin Media $ 16.61 4,074 3,777 3,786 3,871 3,941 -7.3% 0.2% 2.3% 1.8% 2.2% 1,255 1,279 1,285 1,389 1,495 1.9% 0.5% 8.0% 7.6% 8.1% 30.8% 33.9% 34.0% 35.9% 37.9%
Cable & Wireless £ 1.46 3,151 3,647 3,741 3,879 4,010 15.7% 2.6% 3.7% 3.4% 4.9% 578 806 956 1,033 1,076 39.4% 18.7% 8.0% 4.2% 15.6% 18.3% 22.1% 25.6% 26.6% 26.8%
____telecoms & cable_____

Elisa € 15.55 1,568 1,485 1,408 1,394 1,368 -5.3% -5.2% -0.9% -1.9% -4.0% 491 483 475 480 474 -1.6% -1.7% 1.0% -1.1% -0.9% 31.3% 32.5% 33.7% 34.4% 34.7%
Inmarsat £ 6.83 577 997 1,047 1,126 1,188 72.9% 5.0% 7.6% 5.5% 9.2% 388 531 586 652 692 36.9% 10.2% 11.4% 6.1% 14.1% 67.3% 53.3% 55.9% 57.9% 58.2%
Sonaecom € 1.97 893 976 940 946 962 9.4% -3.7% 0.6% 1.7% -0.7% 162 160 174 181 200 -1.0% 8.4% 3.9% 10.8% 11.8% 18.1% 16.4% 18.5% 19.1% 20.8%
ZON Multimedia € 4.50 716 777 825 867 909 8.5% 6.3% 5.0% 4.9% 8.2% 220 245 264 282 300 11.0% 8.0% 6.7% 6.5% 10.8% 30.8% 31.5% 32.0% 32.5% 33.0%
Telenet € 20.52 932 1,019 1,165 1,246 1,302 9.3% 14.4% 6.9% 4.5% 13.0% 443 506 595 635 655 14.0% 17.7% 6.7% 3.2% 13.8% 47.6% 49.6% 51.0% 50.9% 50.3%
Tele2 SEK 110.20 37,186 38,272 38,541 39,420 40,575 2.9% 0.7% 2.3% 2.9% 3.0% 5,457 7,414 8,938 8,977 9,843 35.9% 20.6% 0.4% 9.6% 15.2% 14.7% 19.4% 23.2% 22.8% 24.3%
Mobistar € 46.00 1,540 1,567 1,579 1,649 1,660 1.7% 0.8% 4.4% 0.7% 2.9% 592 592 564 549 533 -0.1% -4.7% -2.6% -2.9% -5.1% 38.5% 37.8% 35.7% 33.3% 32.1%
Bouygues € 37.52 29,588 32,426 31,174 29,896 30,277 9.6% -3.9% -4.1% 1.3% -3.4% 3,601 3,750 3,554 3,127 3,347 4.1% -5.2% -12.0% 7.0% -5.5% 12.2% 11.6% 11.4% 10.5% 11.1%
Sector (€) 51,856 57,768 57,971 57,485 58,513 11.4% 0.4% -0.8% 1.8% 0.6% 9,383 10,551 11,067 11,102 11,691 12.5% 4.9% 0.3% 5.3% 5.3% 18.1% 18.3% 19.1% 19.3% 20.0%

EPS EPS growth 2008-11E DPS DPS growth 2008-11E Capex

Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Fastweb € 18.50 -2.16 -0.18 0.61 0.62 1.26 91.8% 445.9% 2.2% 102.4% nm 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 nm nm nm nm nm 540 438 430 350 320
___ISP___

Freenet € 9.24 0.97 0.60 0.74 0.94 0.99 -38.2% 22.2% 27.7% 5.0% 28.0% 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.35 0.40 nm nm 75.0% 14.3% nm 260 159 65 56 56
Iliad € 84.03 3 2.22 3.58 5.14 5.72 -11.6% 61.1% 43.7% 11.1% 60.4% 0.31 0.34 0.50 0.70 0.80 9.7% 47.1% 40.0% 14.3% 53.4% 364 381 457 448 412
United Internet € 9.82 0.62 0.68 0.77 0.91 1.03 9.8% 12.6% 18.6% 13.3% 23.0% 0.20 0.00 0.20 0.27 0.35 -100.0% nm 35.0% 29.6% nm 56 42 114 44 44
Virgin Media $ 16.61 -1.41 -1.13 -0.76 -0.04 0.47 20.4% 32.0% 94.5% 1210.8% nm 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.13 34.0% 22.5% 10.0% 10.0% 21.7% 536 480 581 624 636
Cable & Wireless £ 1.46 7.52 12.42 12.62 13.69 14.57 65.2% 1.5% 8.5% 6.4% 8.3% 7.50 8.50 9.50 9.98 10.17 13.3% 11.8% 5.0% 2.0% 9.4% 405 449 479 489 505
____telecoms & cable_____

Elisa € 15.55 1.33 1.16 1.11 1.23 1.42 -12.5% -4.5% 11.2% 15.4% 10.7% 0.80 0.60 0.66 0.74 0.77 -25.0% 10.7% 11.2% 4.8% 13.6% 204 179 173 187 182
Inmarsat £ 6.83 0.21 0.77 0.37 0.51 0.60 266.4% -52.0% 37.8% 17.3% -11.9% 0.29 0.30 0.32 0.33 0.35 4.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.6% 214 212 185 135 135
Sonaecom € 1.97 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.09 -85.8% 4.7% 219.9% 88.3% 151.2% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 nm nm nm 489.1% nm 163 192 160 151 144
ZON Multimedia € 4.50 0.24 0.16 0.22 0.26 0.32 -33.1% 38.3% 18.1% 21.9% 41.1% 0.50 0.25 0.16 0.23 0.23 -50.0% -36.0% 42.4% 0.0% -4.5% 150 161 185 150 128
Telenet € 20.52 0.20 0.16 0.68 1.13 1.16 -17.4% 312.3% 66.9% 2.7% 165.8% 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.60 0.66 nm nm 20.0% 10.0% nm 209 246 313 275 253
Tele2 SEK 110.20 0.82 4.90 7.72 8.95 10.76 500.2% 57.6% 16.0% 20.2% 48.2% 4.70 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 -25.5% 14.3% 12.5% 11.1% 19.5% 5,169 4,608 4,454 5,151 5,544
Mobistar € 46.00 4.58 4.54 4.35 4.17 3.98 -0.8% -4.2% -4.1% -4.5% -6.3% 2.80 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 147 160 155 265 166
Bouygues € 37.52 3.98 4.28 3.71 3.11 3.18 7.6% -13.4% -16.2% 2.2% -13.9% 1.50 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.65 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 1.6% 1,787 1,882 1,401 1,383 1,481
Sector (€) 36.2% 1.7% 12.0% 12.0% 8.5% -23.7% -26.1% 9.6% 2.8% -5.9% 5,447 5,362 5,034 4,943 4,883

OpFCF OpFCF growth 2008-11E Net debt Net debt growth 2008-11E Capex growth 2008-11E
Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR* 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR*
Fastweb € 18.50 -129 80 132 234 286 161.9% 65.1% 77.0% 22.1% 88.8% -1,265 -1,457 -1,429 -1,354 -1,185 -15.2% 1.9% 5.3% 12.4% -9.8% -18.9% -1.7% -18.6% -8.6% -9.9%
___ISP___

Freenet € 9.24 -8 195 325 342 330 2480.0% 67.0% 5.1% -3.4% 30.2% -37 -1,304 -1,059 -753 -503 -3410.0% 18.8% 28.9% 33.1% -37.9% -38.6% -59.0% -14.2% -1.0% -29.6%
Iliad € 84.03 75 138 196 344 427 84% 42% 75% 24% 76% -121 -882 -695 -449 -121 -631.5% 21.2% 35.3% 73.1% -63.0% 4.9% 19.9% -1.9% -8.2% 2.6%
United Internet € 9.82 234 277 233 307 333 18.5% -15.8% 31.5% 8.4% 9.6% -312 -489 -277 -121 36 -57.0% 43.5% 56.2% 130.1% nm -26.0% 172.8% -61.4% -0.5% 1.5%
Virgin Media $ 16.61 719 799 704 765 859 11.2% -12.0% 8.7% 12.3% 3.6% -5,631 -6,127 -5,742 -5,415 -4,989 -8.8% 6.3% 5.7% 7.9% -9.8% -10.5% 21.2% 7.3% 2.0% 9.9%
Cable & Wireless £ 1.46 173 357 477 544 572 106.2% 33.6% 14.0% 5.1% 26.5% 243 -377 -506 -589 -645 -255.1% -34.2% -16.5% -9.5% 30.8% 10.9% 6.8% 2.0% 3.2% 4.0%
____telecoms & cable_____

Elisa € 15.55 287 304 302 293 292 5.8% -0.6% -3.2% -0.2% -2.0% -738 -812 -706 -619 -542 -9.9% 13.0% 12.3% 12.5% -18.3% -12.0% -3.5% 8.2% -2.5% 0.6%
Inmarsat £ 6.83 175 320 401 517 557 83.2% 25.3% 29.1% 7.6% 32.0% -1,462 -1,418 -1,297 -1,246 -1,176 3.0% 8.5% 4.0% 5.6% -8.9% -0.9% -12.6% -27.0% 0.0% -13.9%
Sonaecom € 1.97 -1 -32 14 29 56 -3862.5% 144.5% 108.7% 90.4% nm -310 -399 -411 -400 -373 -28.7% -2.9% 2.6% 6.6% -3.3% 18.0% -16.8% -5.3% -4.7% -9.1%
ZON Multimedia € 4.50 70 84 79 132 172 19.2% -5.5% 66.5% 31.0% 43.5% -225 -764 -811 -797 -758 -239.2% -6.2% 1.7% 4.8% -0.3% 7.2% 15.0% -18.9% -15.0% -7.4%
Telenet € 20.52 234 260 282 359 402 10.8% 8.6% 27.6% 11.8% 24.4% -1,923 -2,217 -2,130 -1,980 -1,828 -15.2% 3.9% 7.0% 7.7% -9.2% 17.6% 27.3% -12.1% -8.0% 1.0%
Tele2 SEK 110.20 288 2,806 4,483 3,826 4,300 874.3% 59.8% -14.7% 12.4% 23.8% -5,220 -5,187 -2,734 -2,148 -728 0.6% 47.3% 21.4% 66.1% -62.5% -10.9% -3.3% 15.6% 7.6% 6.4%
Mobistar € 46.00 445 432 409 284 367 -3.1% -5.2% -30.5% 29.1% -7.8% 0 -312 -316 -395 -390 -155850.0% -1.3% -25.2% 1.3% 11.9% 8.9% -3.2% 71.2% -37.3% 1.2%
Bouygues € 37.52 1,814 1,868 2,153 1,744 1,866 3.0% 15.2% -19.0% 7.0% -0.1% -4,009 -4,915 -3,814 -3,754 -3,482 -22.6% 22.4% 1.6% 7.2% -15.8% 5.3% -25.5% -1.3% 7.1% -7.7%
Sector (€) 3,935 5,189 6,033 6,159 6,808 31.9% 16.3% 2.1% 10.5% 14.5% -14,706 -20,300 -17,901 -16,628 -14,704 -38.0% 11.8% 7.1% 11.6% -14.9% -1.6% -6.1% -1.8% -1.2% -3.1%

Source: UBS estimates & Reuters. * Growth rates for underlying financial quantities, not the multiples. Prices and data are in local currency; prices as of 13/01/10
 Others - (5) Financial ratios
Dividend payout (% adj. earnings) Dividend payout (% FCF) Dividend cover (adj. earnings) Interest cover: EBIT / Interest Interest cover: OpFCF / Interest
Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Fastweb € 18.50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% nm 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% nm nm nm nm nm 0.4 1.2 2.4 2.5 4.0 -1.9 0.9 2.1 3.9 5.2
___ISP___

Freenet € 9.24 0.0% 0.0% 27.2% 37.3% 40.6% nm 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 15.4% nm nm 3.7 2.7 2.5 -12.7 2.3 2.3 3.1 4.0 0.7 3.4 3.9 5.3 6.9
Iliad € 84.03 12.3% 15.3% 14.0% 13.6% 14.0% 29.8% 18.6% 14.4% 12.1% 13.6% 8.1 6.5 7.2 7.3 7.1 60.9 10.4 6.6 11.4 23.7 21.5 7.1 3.7 8.4 20.3
United Internet € 9.82 32.2% 0.0% 26.1% 29.7% 34.0% 28.0% 16.6% 0.0% 21.5% 26.8% 3.1 nm 3.8 3.4 2.9 49.7 11.2 19.7 34.4 86.4 50.6 12.1 16.7 34.1 83.2
Virgin Media $ 16.61 -4.6% -7.7% -13.9% -279.0% 27.6% 3.0% 3.7% 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% -21.7 -12.9 -7.2 -0.4 3.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.1
Cable & Wireless £ 1.46 99.7% 68.4% 75.3% 72.9% 69.8% 96.7% 44.3% 49.1% 51.4% 52.3% 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 14.6 10.1 7.4 7.7 8.2 7.9 7.8 6.8 7.3 7.6
____telecoms & cable_____

Elisa € 15.55 60.2% 51.6% 59.9% 59.9% 54.4% 180.9% 120.6% 41.6% 47.6% 53.0% 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.8 17.5 7.4 6.5 8.5 10.3 17.1 8.2 7.1 8.4 10.0
Inmarsat £ 6.83 137.0% 39.2% 85.6% 65.2% 58.4% 93.2% 57.8% 52.8% 42.1% 39.6% 0.7 2.6 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.9 4.5 2.0 2.6 3.3 4.5 5.2
Sonaecom € 1.97 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 50.0% nm 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% nm nm nm 6.3 2.0 1.0 0.2 1.3 2.3 3.8 0.0 -1.8 1.0 2.1 3.6
ZON Multimedia € 4.50 210.3% 157.3% 72.8% 87.8% 72.0% 297.2% 132.6% 84.5% 72.6% 63.3% 0.5 0.6 1.4 1.1 1.4 26.5 3.9 5.7 5.6 7.9 19.0 3.2 5.3 6.6 9.6
Telenet € 20.52 0.0% 0.0% 73.7% 53.0% 56.7% 279.6% 0.0% 40.1% 30.6% 28.2% nm nm 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.2 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.3
Tele2 SEK 110.20 575.8% 71.4% 51.8% 50.3% 46.5% -15.5% 129.7% 61.4% 79.1% 59.1% 0.2 1.4 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.1 4.2 5.1 22.0 120.8 0.4 3.1 4.4 16.3 89.8
Mobistar € 46.00 61.1% 63.8% 66.7% 69.5% 72.8% 94.3% 144.0% 99.6% 121.1% 93.8% 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 4195.1 nm nm 25.8 24.7 4366.7 nm nm 19.1 24.7
Bouygues € 37.52 37.7% 37.4% 43.2% 51.5% 52.0% 30.9% 37.3% 33.6% 42.2% 40.3% 2.7 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.9 10.3 nm nm 5.7 6.3 7.7 nm nm 5.1 5.6
Sector (€) 126.6% 49.3% 52.4% 21.7% 56.5% 119.0% 61.8% 37.9% 40.2% 37.5% -2.3 -0.5 0.4 1.9 1.9 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.9 5.7 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.9 5.7

Net debt / EBITDA Net debt / EV Net debt / Market cap Depreciation / Capex Capex / sales
Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Fastweb € 18.50 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.0 42.1% 50.5% 51.6% 49.7% 45.5% 63.4% 88.2% 97.2% 92.1% 80.6% 70.8% 94.5% 95.5% 123.9% 120.8% 37.7% 25.6% 23.2% 18.2% 16.1%
___ISP___

Freenet € 9.24 0.1 3.7 2.7 1.9 1.3 2.4% 78.8% 56.9% 56.4% 46.4% 2.4% 245.4% 89.5% 63.6% 42.5% 37.0% 139.9% 309.0% 352.9% 353.0% 13.9% 5.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6%
Iliad € 84.03 0.3 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.9% 22.5% 13.9% 9.2% 2.6% 3.0% 26.1% 15.2% 9.8% 2.6% 62.3% 82.9% 66.4% 72.0% 83.0% 30.0% 24.4% 23.2% 21.1% 18.6%
United Internet € 9.82 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.3 -0.1 8.1% 30.1% 11.4% 5.5% -1.9% 8.0% 33.9% 12.3% 5.4% -1.6% 111.2% 127.2% 48.0% 123.5% 117.6% 3.8% 2.5% 6.8% 2.6% 2.5%
Virgin Media $ 16.61 4.5 4.8 4.5 3.9 3.3 76.9% 78.4% 77.0% 76.2% 75.0% 167.8% 182.6% 170.0% 159.6% 146.3% 230.9% 247.8% 194.6% 160.9% 149.3% 13.2% 12.7% 15.4% 16.1% 16.1%
Cable & Wireless £ 1.46 -0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 -6.5% 9.7% 13.5% 15.6% 18.6% -5.6% 9.7% 14.0% 15.5% 17.0% 73.8% 84.5% 96.0% 95.7% 93.9% 12.9% 12.3% 12.8% 12.6% 12.6%
____telecoms & cable_____

Elisa € 15.55 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 17.5% 28.4% 21.5% 21.1% 21.8% 21.2% 39.7% 27.3% 25.6% 25.1% 97.0% 117.6% 115.4% 99.3% 95.2% 13.0% 12.1% 12.3% 13.4% 13.3%
Inmarsat £ 6.83 3.8 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.7 22.9% 31.1% 20.3% 20.8% 20.4% 29.7% 45.0% 25.5% 25.5% 24.0% 101.5% 120.3% 157.4% 150.0% 142.6% 36.7% 18.6% 12.9% 12.0% 11.4%
Sonaecom € 1.97 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 20.8% 53.8% 37.1% 36.5% 34.2% 25.6% 108.4% 56.9% 55.4% 51.8% 86.0% 82.0% 97.6% 97.9% 97.6% 18.2% 19.7% 17.0% 16.0% 15.0%
ZON Multimedia € 4.50 1.0 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.5 7.1% 39.6% 36.6% 39.8% 41.8% 7.6% 66.6% 58.3% 63.2% 63.6% 81.4% 87.3% 96.1% 112.6% 123.2% 21.0% 20.7% 22.4% 17.3% 14.0%
Telenet € 20.52 4.3 4.4 3.6 3.1 2.8 49.5% 65.4% 50.5% 49.1% 47.3% 89.7% 163.8% 94.4% 87.8% 81.0% 113.7% 106.6% 99.3% 102.4% 110.2% 22.4% 24.1% 26.9% 22.1% 19.4%
Tele2 SEK 110.20 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 7.6% 13.3% 5.3% 4.5% 1.8% 8.3% 15.4% 5.6% 4.4% 1.6% 90.5% 76.3% 82.2% 74.0% 73.2% 13.9% 12.0% 11.6% 13.1% 13.7%
Mobistar € 46.00 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.0% 8.9% 10.0% 13.5% 14.5% 0.0% 9.7% 11.1% 14.3% 14.1% 111.9% 108.3% 105.2% 62.6% 100.2% 9.5% 10.2% 9.8% 16.1% 10.0%
Bouygues € 37.52 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.0 17.6% 33.5% 18.9% 18.7% 18.0% 20.7% 47.4% 29.6% 28.1% 26.0% 80.5% 82.6% 122.7% 112.1% 104.0% 6.0% 5.8% 4.5% 4.6% 4.9%
Sector (€) 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.3 19.6% 36.4% 26.4% 25.7% 24.3% 23.2% 52.1% 36.5% 33.9% 30.4% 91.0% 100.2% 112.3% 107.8% 107.2% 10.5% 9.2% 8.6% 8.6% 8.3%

ROE ROA Pre-tax RoCE EV / IC FCF / Sales

Price 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Fastweb € 18.50 -15.4% -1.5% 5.3% 5.3% 10.0% 1.8% 6.6% 8.9% 8.8% 13.0% 1.2% 4.6% 6.4% 6.5% 9.6% 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 36.6% 0.6% 3.9% 6.7% 8.8%
___ISP___

Freenet € 9.24 16.5% 11.5% 11.5% 13.2% 12.2% 172.5% 418.7% 259.8% 204.7% 151.4% 38.7% 10.5% 9.4% 10.9% 11.3% 3.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 -0.2% 6.4% 7.4% 8.3% 8.2%
Iliad € 84.03 30.3% 21.7% 28.7% 31.6% 27.0% 48.7% 22.9% 28.4% 37.7% 40.6% 40.2% 19.2% 23.9% 32.1% 34.6% 6.4 2.7 3.4 3.3 3.3 4.0% 5.8% 6.5% 10.6% 12.6%
United Internet € 9.82 42.1% 61.5% 68.1% 45.3% 37.6% -147.7% -160.9% -186.8% -172.4% -200.2% 41.1% 38.4% 42.4% 46.3% 50.7% 5.5 2.6 3.6 3.2 2.8 10.2% 16.8% 10.3% 12.6% 13.1%
Virgin Media $ 16.61 -15.2% -15.7% -14.6% -0.9% 9.9% 0.3% 2.0% 3.6% 9.7% 14.5% 0.4% 1.3% 2.2% 5.6% 8.2% 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 17.6% 21.2% 18.6% 19.8% 21.8%
Cable & Wireless £ 1.46 10.8% 17.6% 17.3% 18.4% 18.7% 37.6% 46.7% 42.7% 44.3% 44.8% 17.7% 20.6% 18.6% 19.6% 19.8% 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 4.5% 9.1% 11.7% 12.3% 12.4%
____telecoms & cable_____

Elisa € 15.55 18.6% 20.8% 19.8% 18.3% 16.5% 41.8% 40.9% 42.7% 40.5% 37.0% 17.2% 16.4% 16.9% 17.2% 16.7% 2.5 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.3 14.1% 15.9% 15.9% 15.5% 15.8%
Inmarsat £ 6.83 11.6% 37.7% 18.8% 27.2% 32.3% 25.2% 28.7% 38.3% 47.6% 58.6% 9.3% 13.8% 16.6% 21.3% 24.9% 2.7 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 23.4% 22.6% 27.1% 32.6% 33.3%
Sonaecom € 1.97 4.0% 0.6% 0.6% 1.9% 3.4% 3.3% 0.4% 2.2% 4.0% 7.3% 1.8% 0.2% 1.3% 2.4% 4.4% 1.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 -0.1% -3.2% 1.2% 2.3% 4.4%
ZON Multimedia € 4.50 16.4% 102.2% -56.1% 50.5% 58.9% 14.6% 19.2% 12.8% 11.9% 15.5% 14.6% 18.5% 12.7% 11.8% 15.4% 4.6 5.0 2.3 2.1 2.0 7.3% 7.5% 7.1% 11.2% 14.0%
Telenet € 20.52 4.7% 10.6% 52.9% 88.1% 64.5% 31.2% 31.1% 36.8% 51.0% 59.0% 10.0% 10.9% 12.3% 16.1% 17.9% 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 25.1% -8.0% 11.8% 17.3% 19.8%
Tele2 SEK 110.20 1.4% 7.9% 12.2% 13.8% 14.7% 0.0% 21.8% 29.4% 30.4% 32.2% 2.4% 11.9% 16.5% 16.7% 18.1% 2.1 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.2 -14.2% 7.0% 9.3% 7.8% 8.3%
Mobistar € 46.00 37.9% 45.9% 58.5% 56.0% 52.3% 115.1% 105.7% 93.1% 81.9% 72.4% 58.3% 54.6% 52.8% 47.7% 43.1% 5.1 4.6 4.2 3.4 3.2 19.6% 18.7% 17.4% 11.7% 15.0%
Bouygues € 37.52 22.0% 20.2% 16.0% 12.6% 12.2% 42.8% 33.9% 26.0% 22.1% 24.2% 21.2% 19.6% 16.3% 14.2% 15.0% 1.9 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.4 4.4% 4.2% 5.2% 4.4% 4.5%
Sector (€) 12.0% 15.5% 15.4% 15.9% 16.5% 27.7% 44.1% 31.3% 30.2% 26.4% 14.2% 14.5% 14.4% 15.2% 16.7% 2.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 4.8% 6.4% 7.6% 8.0% 8.6%

Source: UBS estimates & Reuters. * Growth rates for underlying financial quantities, not the multiples. Prices and data are in local currency; prices as of 13/01/10
 Price Performance - One-week

Incumbents EMEA

TEF Telkom
BZQ
TNOR Partner
TI Cellcom
VOD MobiNil
Mobily
DT MTS
TELIA VCOM
BELG Zain
Wataniya
OTE Stel
FT TEF O2
SCOM Q-Tel
TPSA
TI (Saving) Zain KSA
PT Magyar
Turkcell
KPN Millicom
TA TE
BT Orascom
Turk Telekom
DJS Telecoms DJS Telecoms
DJ Stoxx 600 DJ Stoxx 600
S&P 500 S&P 500

-15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%

Others Indices

Virgin Media DJS Telecoms

Mobistar MADX (Madrid)
Fastweb
Inmarsat DAX 30
Elisa BEL 20
Tele2
IndicesEuronext 100
Freenet
United Internet SMI (Swiss Market)
Sonaecom
MSCI Europe
Iliad
Telenet DJ Stoxx 600
Cable & Wireless FTSE 100
ZON Multimedia
DJS Telecoms CAC 40
DJ Stoxx 600 S&P 500
S&P 500
-4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0%
-8.0% -4.0% 0.0% 4.0%

Note: The charts show price movements

Source: UBS and Bloomberg

 Price Performance - YTD
Incumbents EMEA

Telkom
Wataniya
OTE
TPSA
FT Stel
TI Orascom
DT Zain KSA
TEF O2
BELG
Zain
TA TE
TI (Saving) Partner
VOD Turkcell
Q-Tel
BT
Magyar
SCOM Turk Telekom
KPN Cellcom
TEF Mobily
BZQ
TELIA
Millicom
PT MobiNil
TNOR MTS
DJS Telecoms VCOM
DJS Telecoms
DJ Stoxx 600
DJ Stoxx 600
S&P 500 S&P 500

-30.0% 0.0% 30.0% 60.0% 90.0% -60.0% 0.0% 60.0% 120.0% 180.0% 240.0%

Others Indices

Fastweb DJS Telecoms

Mobistar
C&W SMI (Swiss Market)
ZON CAC 40
Elisa
Iliad DAX 30
ISAT FTSE100
UI
Tele2 S&P 500
Telenet Euronext 100
Sonae
MADX (Madrid)
Freenet
Virgin MSCI Europe
DJS Telecoms
DJ Stoxx 600
DJ Stoxx 600
S&P 500 BEL 20

-15.0% 20.0% 55.0% 90.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%

Note: The charts show price movements

Source: UBS and Bloomberg

 -20
-10
10
20
30

0
Feb-00
May-00
Aug-00
Nov-00
Feb-01
May-01
Aug-01
Nov-01
Feb-02
May-02
Aug-02
Nov-02
Feb-03
May-03
Aug-03
Nov-03
Telecoms Earnings Momentum

Feb-04
May-04
Aug-04

Source: UBS European Equity Strategy Team; IBES, Thomson Financial Datastream
Nov-04
Feb-05

3-MONTH Relative Earnings Momentum

May-05
Aug-05
Nov-05
Feb-06
May-06
Aug-06
Nov-06
Feb-07
Relative Performance (rhs)

May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Calendar
Date Company Event Region

January
22-Jan Bharti Airtel Q3 10 results Asia
26-Jan KPN Q3 10 results Europe
26-Jan Verizon Q4 09 results US
28-Jan AT&T Q4 09 results US
28-Jan Time Warner Cable Q4 09 results US
28-Jan Taiwan Mobile Q4 09 results Asia

February
02-Feb Vodacom Q3 10 results EMEA
03-Feb Vodafone Q3 10 results Europe
03-Feb Comcast Q4 09 results US
04-Feb Portugal Telecom Q4 09 results Europe
04-Feb TPSA Q4 09 results Europe
04-Feb Starhub Q4 09 results Asia
09-Feb Tele2 Q4 09 results Europe
09-Feb Singtel Q3 10 results Asia
10-Feb Telenor Q4 09 results Europe
10-Feb Sprint Q4 09 results US
10-Feb Millicom Q4 09 results Europe
11-Feb TeliaSonera Q4 09 results Europe
11-Feb BT Group Q3 10 results Europe
11-Feb Mobistar Q4 09 results Europe
11-Feb Telstra Q2 10 results Asia
12-Feb Elisa Q4 09 results Europe
16-Feb Qwest Q4 09 results US
17-Feb Rogers Communications Q4 09 results Canada
17-Feb Qwest Q4 09 results US
18-Feb Swisscom Q4 09 results Europe
24-Feb Telekom Austria Q4 09 results Europe
24-Feb American Tower Q4 09 results US
24-Feb Frontier Q4 09 results US
25-Feb France Telecom Q4 09 results Europe
25-Feb Deutsche Telekom Q4 09 results Europe
25-Feb Telecom Italia Q4 09 results Europe
25-Feb Telefonica O2 CR Q4 09 results Europe
26-Feb Telefonica Q4 09 results Europe
26-Feb Belgacom Q4 09 results Europe

March
03-Mar Bouygues Q4 09 results Europe
03-Mar Turkcell Q4 09 results EMEA
09-Mar Inmarsat Q4 09 results Europe
Definitions

Valuation Highlights:

Enterprise value (EV) is stripped of non-core assets and is based on forecast year-end values; the market cap, included in the calculation, is based on
our forecasts of the future number of shares outstanding and is reduced by the expected dividend payments

EV = Market Cap + Net Debt + Minorities + Other liabilities – Non-core assets – Dividend payments

Operating free cash flows (OpFCF) = EBITDA adj – Capex

Free cash flows (FCF) = OpFCF x (1 – normalised tax rate)

Equity free cash flow (EFCF): = EBITDA adj - Cash Capex - Cash Interest - Minorities + Associates - normalised Tax
Market cap is adjusted for the resulting tax credits/liabilities

adj. P/E excludes pre- and post-tax exceptional items such as write downs, goodwill amortisation, discontinued operations, etc.

adj. P/E (pre licence amortisation) as above, but adj. net income excludes licence amortisation

Dividend yield = Gross DPS / price

Total shareholder return (TSR) = (Dividend + Share buyback) / Market cap adj. for forecast number of shares

Sector averages are based on aggregated values translated in euros at current FX rates and as such are affected by movements in exchange rates.
Sector "EPS" and "DPS" growth is earnings and dividend growth in €.

Historic valuation is based on historic market cap.

Earnings momentum definitions:

Earnings momentum chart compares the MSCI Europe Telecoms index vs. the broader MSCI Europe index. The earnings momentum is a three-month
average of the one-month earnings momentum estimates. I/B/E/S data

1-month Absolute Earnings Momentum (%) = (# of upgrades of the 12-month forecasts - # of downgrades) / total number of estimates

3-month Absolute Earnings Momentum (%) = 3-month average of the 1-month Absolute Earnings Momentum

Relative Earnings Momentum = Sector (Absolute momentum) – Market (Absolute momentum)

Contacts in the EMEA region
Analyst's name Location Phone Email Stock coverage

Laura Janssens London +44-20-7568 2312 laura.janssens@ubs.com Vodafone, Deutsche Telekom, KPN, Belgacom,
Mobistar, Telenet

Nick Lyall London +44-20-7568 6332 nick.lyall@ubs.com France Telecom, Telecom Italia, BT, Cable &
Wireless, Virgin Media

Argiro Papadopoulou London +44-20-7567 6190 argiro.papadopoulou@ubs.com Telefonica, OTE, Portugal Telecom, Telekom
Austria

Keval Khiroya London +44-20-7568 6005 keval.khiroya@ubs.com Telenor, TeliaSonera, Tele2, Elisa, Swisscom

Violeta Katzova London +44-20-7568 3264 violeta.katzova@ubs.com Belgacom, Mobistar, Telenet

Marcus Baeumer Frankfurt +49-69-1369 8244 marcus.baeumer@ubs.com Freenet, Iliad, QSC, Tiscali, United Internet,
Mobilcom, Millicom, Thus, KCOM

Bosco Ojeda Madrid +34-91-436 9078 bosco.ojeda@ubs.com Sonaecom, Zon Multimedia

Valentina Romitelli Milan +39-02-7210 0257 valentina.romitelli@ubs.com Fastweb

Alexander Wright London +44-20-7568 3240 alexander.wright@ubs.com Orascom Telecom, Turkcell, Bezeq, Partner
Comms., Cellcom, VimpelCom, MTS, Saudi
Telecom, Watnaiya, Qatar Telecom, Turk
Telekom, Zain KSA

Zoltan Palfi London +44 20 7567 168'2 zoltan.palfi@ubs.com TPSA, Magyar Telekom, Telefonica O2 Czech
Republic, Cyfrowy Polsat, Telecom Egypt,
Multimedia Polska, Mobinil

Igor Goncharov Moscow +7-495-648 2364 igor.goncharov@ubs.com Golden Telecom, Rostelecom, Comstar,
Uralsvyazinform, Volga Telecom, Siberia Telecom,
South Telecom, Northwest Telecom, Far East
Telecom, Center Telecom, MGTS, Sistema

John Slettevold Johannesburg +27-11-322 7317 john.slettevold@ubs.com MTN, Telcom

We would like to thank Pratyush Kumar for his assistance.*

Footnote: *Pratyush Kumar is not employed by UBS.

Disclaimers and Disclosures

Required Disclosures
This report has been prepared by UBS Limited, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as UBS.
For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its research product; historical performance information; and certain additional disclosures
concerning UBS research recommendations, please visit www.ubs.com/disclosures. Additional information will be made available upon request.
UBS Investment Research: Global Equity Rating Allocations
UBS 12-
Month
Rating Rating Category Coverage1 IB Services2
Buy Buy 48% 4%
Neutral Hold/Neutral 40% 35%
Sell Sell 13% 26%

UBS Short-
Term
Rating Rating Category Coverage3 IB Services4
Buy Buy less than 1% 17%
Sell Sell less than 1% 67%
1:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the 12-month rating category.
2:Percentage of companies within the 12-month rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months.
3:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the Short-Term rating category.
4:Percentage of companies within the Short-Term rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months.
Source: UBS. Rating allocations are as of 31 Dec 2009.
UBS Investment Research: Global Equity Rating Definitions
UBS 12-
Month
Rating Definition
Buy FSR is > 6% above the MRA.
Neutral FSR is between -6% and 6% of the MRA.
Sell FSR is > 6% below the MRA.

UBS Short-
Term
Rating Definition
Buy Buy: Stock price expected to rise within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event.
Sell Sell: Stock price expected to fall within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event.

KEY DEFINITIONS
Forecast Stock Return (FSR) is defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12 months.
Market Return Assumption (MRA) is defined as the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for, and not a forecast of, the equity risk premium).
Under Review (UR) Stocks may be flagged as UR by the analyst, indicating that the stock's price target and/or rating are subject to possible change in the near term,
usually in response to an event that may affect the investment case or valuation
Short-Term Ratings reflect the expected near-term (up to three months) performance of the stock and do not reflect any change in the fundamental view or investment case.
EXCEPTIONS AND SPECIAL CASES
UK and European Investment Fund ratings and definitions ar Buy: Positive on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount;
Neutral: Neutral on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount; Sell: Negative on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount.
Core Banding Exceptions (CBE): Exceptions to the standard +/-6% bands may be granted by the Investment Review Committee (IRC). Factors
considered by the IRC include the stock's volatility and the credit spread of the respective company's debt. As a result, stocks deemed to be very
high or low risk may be subject to higher or lower bands as they relate to the rating. When such exceptions apply, they will be identified in the
Company Disclosures table in the relevant research piece.

Global Disclaimer
This report has been prepared by UBS Limited, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its
subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as UBS. In certain countries,
UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA.

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