CAN FORMER INSURGENT CPN/MAOIST LEAD

NEW NEPAL FOR THE BETTER DIRECTION?

A GENERAL WEEKLY SITUATION ANALYSIS REPORT

RAJ K PANDEY, MBS, MA (RURAL DEVELOPMENT)

GPO BOX: 19862
JAWALAKHEL, LALITPUR
KAHTMANDU, NEPAL
Mobile: 977-01-98510 86884
rajkpandey2000@yahoo.com, rajkpandey2000@gmail.com rajkpandey2000@hotmail.com

2008

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General Context
Nepal is again a hot topic because of the former insurgent Communist Party of Nepal (CPN/Maoist)
unexpected victory in the CA elections (April 10, 2008) on both math and ideology after being
introduced by the 10-year protracted People's War and 2-year long post-conflict flexible security
situations and instabilities. International communities that followed the Big House Media propaganda
that the Maoists would be lost have been astounded. The suspended king Gyanendra, who used to pay
visits to the generals for dinners with smiling face, is now quivering. Nepali Congress (NC), ruling for
almost 18-years after popular movement I 1990, has become a fish out of water, although NC has been
demanding CA polls 60-year back. Madhav Nepal, who regarded himself strong founder of the
CPN/UML, has resigned from the post of General Secretary on the moral background of party's defeat
and it has been approved, but is trying his best to win heart and mind of UML leaders and cadres to be
the President of the party soon.

The 97,000 NGO activists, mostly affiliated to UML and NC, who joined the election observation to
tag the Maoists' for rigging the CA polls have been flabbergasted. The security mechanism, which is
incapable to assess the defeat of its Minister of Home, is amazed. The Army Chief, who used to send
his Generals to Prachanda for informal meetings and performed tug-of-war with the Maoists from afar,
has become hushed like a snake in front of a mongoose. About 1,000 strong International Observer
Team, which assessed that Maoists would face a defeat prior to the polls, now is in a quandary. It
seemed a consensus amongst all the mainstream political parties during the casting and counting of
votes. However, as the results were unanticipated, they now are seeking to clamor that Young
Communist League (YCL)–fusion of military and political force of Maoists had manipulated the votes.

Combining both the First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) and party's closed list Proportional Representation
System, Maoists
Table 1: Party wise CA result status in FPTP
received 38% votes
Candidate Elected representative
whereas NC 19%,
UML 18% and S Female Male Total Female Male Total
Party Name
Madhesi Janadhikar N No % No % No % No %
Forum (MJF) 9% 1 CPN - Maoist 42 11.41 198 5.53 240 23 79.31 97 45.97 120
(Table-1). Against 2 Nepali Congress 26 7.07 214 5.98 240 2 6.90 35 16.59 37
the communist 3 CPN - UML 27 7.34 212 5.93 239 1 3.45 32 15.17 33

forces had received 4 Forum 3 0.82 100 2.79 103 2 6.90 28 13.27 30
5 TMLP 4 1.09 90 2.52 94 1 3.45 8 3.79 9
40 percent result in
6 Sadhvawana 4 1.09 83 2.32 87 0 0.00 4 1.90 4
last April 1999
7 Janamorcha Nepal 28 7.61 175 4.89 203 0 0.00 2 0.95 2
Parliamentary
8 Workers and Peasants 27 7.34 71 1.98 98 0 0.00 2 0.95 2
election.Communist 9 Independent 42 11.41 774 21.63 816 0 0.00 2 0.95 2
groups for the CA 10 Rastriya Janamorcha 15 4.08 107 2.99 122 0 0.00 1 0.47 1
polls have 11 Others 150 40.76 1554 43.43 1704 0 0.00 0 0.00
accumulated 61 12 Total 368 100 3578 100 3946 29 100 211 100 240
percent (excluding
26 nominees by
cabinet) and thus borne the prime responsibility to draft and ratify new Constitution on consensus and
cooperation of Seven-Party Alliance and other factions.

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Total out of 240, women from FPTP consisted of 12% (29), of which Maoists comprise 10% (23-
member) alone (See table 1). This result is evident that younger, clean image, fresh and dynamic were
elected rather than old ideologies, attitudes, methods along with ill-famous leaders. The representatives
between 25-40 year age group of Maoist are 60%, whereas NC 8%, UML 12%, MJF 47%, etc.

The Attributes of the Result

• Bahun and Chhetri are the most over-represented group proportionately

comprising 42.08% of the elected representatives in 30.89 percent of the population.

• Elected Tarai and hill Janajatis candidates are to some extent under-
represented in proportion Table 2: Caste/Ethnicity and region-wise results of FPTP in CA polls
Mid- Far- Grand Member Census
of 7.50 percent in 8.69 Caste/Ethnicity East Central West
West West total (%) 2001 (%)
percent of the last census Bahun/Chhetri 16 25 21 23 16 101 42.08 30.89
and 24.58% of the elected Dalit (hill) 1 1 2 2 6 2.50 7.11
candidates in 27.74% of Dalit (tarai) 1 1 0.42 4.66
Janajatis (hill) 18 24 15 2 59 24.58 27.74
population respectively. Janajatis (tarai) 6 3 4 5 18 7.50 8.69
Madhesi 14 28 11 2 55 22.92 19.12
• Total 56 81 49 33 21 240 100 98.21

Madhesis, representation of
Terai comparatively have over-represented (22.92 percent of the elected candidates) in terms of their
19.12% population.

• Both hill and tarai Dalits are under-represented among elected candidates
where hill comprises of 2.50 percent in compared to their 7.11 percent population in the last census
and tarai consists of only one (0.42%) elected candidate as compared to their 4.66 percent of the
population all from the CPN-Maoist. There was no single Dalits elected from the Far Western
Region. Out of 7 sub-groups, Kami and Sarki elected three in each and one Paswan from tarai.

• Many urban elite voters (the pillars of the political instability, ineffective
governance and administration, inequality - distribution of resources and opportunities, inadequate
service delivery system, injustice to identities and beliefs, inefficient socio-cultural and political-
economy transformation), along with high-profile diplomats who have much trust upon bIG House
Media had a hypothesis that Maoists would reduce the votes of UML and other communist groups
resulting NC to be the largest winner Table 3: Age Group of FPTP results in CA polls
again. As a result, they continued all 25-30 31-40 41-50 51-60
Political Party 60+ yr Total
types of support (economic, moral yr yr yr yr

and political) to them. CPN (Maoist) 21 51 32 13 3 120

NC 3 14 11 9 37
CPN (UML) 4 22 7 33
• On the MJF 4 10 9 5 2 30
other side, the leaders of NC and TMLP 4 3 1 1 9
UML leaders were experienced, Sadhbhavana 2 2 4
Janamorcha
vocal and cunning to mislead the Nepal 1 1 2
NMKP 1 1 2
RJM 1 1
Independent 1 1 2
Total Page 3/11
25 75 84 38 18 240
 poor people in compared to Maoists, MJF and others. People were familiarized their permanent
election symbols of their parties too.
• However, those analyses went vain, because UML lost 10 percent votes
while NC lost 15 percent in compared to the last parliamentary elections 1999. As the diplomats
failed to analyze the ground reality of Nepal and they become futile in front of their bosses, they are
now seeking to neutral and academic analysts albeit supporting (financial and moral) to the media.

• This election showed that the people are more aware than the political
party leadership and that they are for forward looking evolutionary or revolutionary trend for their
peace, progress and prosperity. Even though, 5 percent votes were disqualified due to lack of voter
education. In 1951, the NC had shadowed the RPP, whereas in 1990 elections UML presented as the
second largest party.

• This time for CA polls too, Maoists have become a hot issue of debate
and discussion everywhere how Maoists bagged such huge votes. First, during the People's War,
common people were empowered. Second, the FPTP candidates were inclusive. Third, they were the
force putting the agendas for republic, federal structure government with autonomy and CA polls in
priority since a long. They were the one to raise the voices of the poor, marginalized and vulnerable
people. The MJF also raised these issues prominently, which resulted them to become the fourth
power in the CA. Every election, people seek forward-looking change against Nepal's traditional
development model, leader and party.
Table 4: FPTP and PRS Results of CA
FPTP PRS
# Organization Member
• Member % Votes % Member % Votes % Total (%)
The agendas and
1 CPN - Maoist 120 50 3,145,519 30.52 100 27.70 3,144,204 29.28 220 36.61
issues raised
by NC and 2 NC 37 15.42 2,348,890 22.79 73 20.22 2,269,883 21.14 110 18.30

UML were 3 CPN – UML 33 13.75 2,229,064 21.63 70 19.39 2,183,370 20.33 103 17.14
ambiguous 4 Forum 30 12.5 634,154 6.15 22 6.09 678,327 6.32 52 8.65
lagged behind
5 TMLP 7 2.92 345,587 3.35 11 3.05 338,930 3.16 18 3.00
the new trend
and waves. 6 Sadbhawana 4 1.67 - 0.00 5 1.39 167,517 1.56 9 1.50

Twelve 7 Janamor.Nepal 4 1.67 - 0.00 5 1.39 164,381 1.53 9 1.50

percent Maoist
8 Majdor Kisan 2 0.83 - 0.00 2 0.55 74,089 0.69 4 0.67
elected
candidates 9 Un. Janamorcha 1 0.42 - 0.00 3 0.83 106,224 0.99 4 0.67
10 Independent 2 0.83 - 0.00 0 0.00 - 0.00 2 0.33
bagged three- Cabinet
times more 11 Nomination 0 0 - 0.00 26 7.20 - 0.00 26 4.33

12 RPP 0 0 - 0.00 8 2.22 110,519 1.03 8 1.33

13 CPN – ML 0 0 - 0.00 8 2.22 243,545 2.27 8 1.33

14 CPN - United 0 0 - 0.00 5 1.39 154,968 1.44 5 0.83

15 RPP - Nepal 0 0 - 0.00 4 1.11 263,431 2.45 4 0.67

16 Janashakti 0 0 - 0.00 3 0.83 102,147 0.95 3 0.50

17 Other parties 0 0 1,602,906 15.55 16 4.43 737,543 6.87 16 2.66

Total 240 100 10,306,120 100 361 100 10,739,078 100 601 100

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 votes than their counterparts, and most of those are from hills and mountains, except Bardiya and
Kailali.

• Although India's role to wipe out Maoists from tarai seemed quite tough,
their presence in those areas is strong. Although, the CA poll was more peaceful than the past
parliamentary elections, there were many reports of violence in the media. The YCL was on the
headlines of election rigging, however 65 percent of those killed during the election campaign
belonged to them. Why the Maoists became the largest party? There are three aspects that caused
people to cast vote for the Maoists. First, they received votes from their cadres and affiliated people.
Second, voters who wanted peace, prosperity and security. Last, poor and marginalized groups who
were attracted by their slogans and manifesto.

• During the People's War, UML and NC concentrated in the cities,

whereas the Maoists spread their influence not only in the rural areas but also in the cities and towns.
The poster of Madhav Kumar Nepal bowing in front of Gyanendra, during his coronation ceremony
and begging the position of Prime Ministry through request letter to Gyanendra was widely posted
throughout the country. This also smeared UML's image. UML rejected the Maoist proposal of 60:40
since they thought that the latter feared of defeat.

• Maoist cadres claimed that India is spending huge amount of money for
the defeat of Maoists. Nevertheless, neither any parties alleged nor the Indian government, which
aroused suspicion amongst the voters, disclaimed it. Anti-USA sentiment is quite strong in Nepal.
People consider NC and UML close to the USA and that reduced their voters. The US strategy to
'observe India, encircle China', has become a flop after the CA polls result. Its spy mechanism shall
also be returned back along with not extending the time of invited institution.

• Maoists still face difficulties in convincing the international communities

that they believe in competitive multi-party system guaranteeing all fundamental human rights. The
seven political parties are being polarized for and against YCL and ex-combatants. The group of NC
leaders likes Sher Bahadur Deuba (former PM) et. al. are putting pressure not to let go the political
power, which is against the verdict of the people. The proposal of Prachanda for repelling of all past
unequal bilateral treaties and agreements with India is in itself a challenge. Some left Indian
intellectuals are also pressurizing for revision of the unequal treaties to which the new Indian
Ambassador has given positive signals, but Indian Hindu fundamentalists are campaigning to keep
the Hindu kingdom.

• Because of unsure about Maoists' Public-Private Partnership policy,

capital is being transmitted abroad. It would be difficult for the Maoists to work with the bureaucracy
and diplomats over whom UML and NC have had strong hold. The declaration and implementation
of republic by the first meeting of CA is itself a big challenge. If bitter relationship develops between
UML-NC-Maoists, the possibilities of the formers to align with the king exist by marginalizing
other.

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• Similarly, consensus building for federal structures and formulation of
new constitution by two-third majority are also huge obstacles on their road ahead. MJF's proposal to
include other mainstream parties, emerged after the elections, along with the Seven Party Alliance in
the Interim Constitution also requires two-third majority in the house. Implementing of the
Agreements and Understandings with different parties/groups is also of serious concern. If those are
not taken with due gravity, the security situation would become more vulnerable than in past.

• The Maoists' also have challenges within their strategies and action
plans. It has advanced the revolutionary drive, but it is not very easy for them to continue their
'revolutionary reformism' – Marxism-Leninism-Maoism-Prachandapath –at present the state
mechanism as well as international phenomena. The past has shown that 'left' forces are radical
revolutionary when outside the power, but turn into 'ultra right' as they ascend to power. There is the
challenge of slipping to repeat the past. The forthcoming government headed by Maoists is at the
edge of a sticky situation. Unless the Maoists pursue honesty, integrity, transparency, accountability
and belief in the people, it will be difficult for them to surmount these obstacles.

• The Nepal Army (NA) and the security mechanism did not win over the
Maoists and peace process was based on 'neither/nor'. Hence, possibilities for them are: (i) comply
with the government decisions; (ii) resign; and (iii) stage a coup. The third option will again plunge
the country into devastation, but it is not possible against the verdict of people now. Not only
academic qualification but also skills, techniques and bravery are important for military personnel.
Therefore, there is needed to have an integration between ex-combatants and NA.

• The writers/analysts producing reports focusing the political ground

reality of Nepal in the past labeled as "Maoists" and shaved to a corner by anti-Maoists national and
international forces. Now the scenario has been changed due to ground reality coincided with the
people's mandate and Maoists commitment to democracy and economic liberalism. Those earlier
anti-Maoist national and international forces are flabbergasted because their analysis burst as soap
bubbles.

• It is quite certain that Maoists will lead the government soon, as it is the
largest party in the CA. The Central Committee meeting of CPN (Maoist), has decided to form
government under Prachanda's leadership, as head of the state and demonstrating flexibility, decided
to offer Premiership and Chairperson of CA either to NC or the UML. If both do not agree in the
consensus, it took the decision to form 'minority government'. It also planned to stage 'People's
Revolt' if the incumbent NC-lead government does not step down based on the fresh people's
mandate. The biggest challenge is to write and declare new constitution than the free and fair CA
polls, because more than 25 national, regional and cultural based political parties are participating in
the CA, as compared to 13 in the past.

Conclusion

• Similarly, there is no possibility to disband People's Liberation of Army

(PLA) as they are backbone and shield of the Maoists. Will be able to move ahead rallying NC,
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 UML, MJF and other parties together? Sustainable peace, security and equitable development rely on
confident building measures and alliance with all concerned parties instead of SPA amending the
Interim Constitution. People's desire is to end hunger, ill health, unemployment, injustice,
exploitation and discrimination, and thus mandated the political parties to work unison towards it. In
the CA is election, although mathematically some have won and some have lost, but all have won in
the qualitative sense. This is a victory of NC and UML too, since, NC was the 'first in the history' to
demand for the CA and UML, under late General Secretary Madan Bhandari, had proposed for it.

APPENDIX-A: WEEKLY SECURITY SITUATION (27April-4 May 2008)

 27 April, Kathmandu, CPN UML central working committee approved the resignation tendered
by its General Secretary Mr. Madhav K. Nepal on the moral ground.

 27 April, Siraha, Police arrested Chairman of underground Terai Aajad (Freedom) Party.

 27 April, Makawanpur, Hetaunda, Transport entrepreneurs and employees have demanded the
removal of tax collection posts set up by District Development Committee all across the
country. Four different transportation employee unions said that they would take to the streets
if the government filed to address their demands soon.

 27 April, Dolpa, Protesting against water scarcity, hospital halted service for half an hour since
the hospital is suffering due to water shortage for the past several months.

 28 April, Parsha, Nepali Congress CA Candidate has filed a case at the CA Court challenging
the victory of a CPN/UML candidate from Parsha Contitient-4 with a charge of an unfair poll.

 28 April, Pythan, Dharmawati VDC, a group of seven Maoist cadres vandalized a Nepal Red
Cross ambulance and also beat up driver as he failed to stop the ambulance at their bidding.

 28 April, Lalitpur, Ekantakuna, An irate group vandalized a microbus which was carrying the
journalists working for the National Dailies – The Himalaya Times and Annapurna.

 28 April, Kapilvastu, Mahendrakot VDC, Maoist thrased two Nepali Congress cadres reasoning
that they did not vote for the CPN/Moaist in poll.

 28 April, Bara, Rampur-Tokani, Production work at Dabur Nepal, a multinational company,

has been halted after locals created obstructions by padlocking the entrance gate of the factory
demanding job opportunity for them. The company has filed an application at the District
Administration Office seeking security

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 28 April, Siraha, Silowarpachhari, An armed group abducted a government employee in Siraha
who was working with the GoN/Survey Office.

 28 April, Kathmandu, Top four parties – CPN/Maoist, Nepali Congress (NC), CPN/UML and
MPRF – have agreed in principal to scrap a provision in the interim constitution that requires
two-third majority to both form and oust the government.

 28 April, Kathmandu, The CPN/Moaist, however, has put a condition that there should be a
presidential system and that the president should be from the party if the amendment is brought
in consensus with all other parties.

 28 April, Kathmandu, Manamaiju VDC, a former army personnel currently working as a

private security guard has been found dead under mysterious circumstances in capital. His body
was found drenched in a pool of blood on the road with serious injuries in the back of his head.
Police, however, have detained a couple from nearby residence on suspicion of their
involvement in the incident.

 28 April, Dhading, Ree VDC, CPN/UML two cadres have been abducted from Ree VDC in
Dhading by YCL.

 29 April, Ramechap, Bijulkot, At least 8 persons were injured in a scuffle after Dalit stepped
into the kitchen of higher cast people.

 29 April, Parsha, Birgunj, At least 4 persons were injured in a bomb explosion by SJTMM.

 29 April, Rautahat, Bariyarpur, local has been seriously injured from the bullets fired by an
unknown group.

 30 April, Surkhet, Police investigating the murder of CPN/UML candidate said that they are
trying to find out the motive behind the killing as police bodyguard recently admitted that he
accidentally shot dead the CA poll candidate.

 30 April, Bhojpur, Kulung, At least 4 UML cadres including district leader were injured when
Maoist activists allegedly attacked them. Protesting the beating, the UML district committee
organized a protest rally at district headquarters.

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 30 April, Parsha, Birgunj, a team of businesspersons of Birgunj Chamber of Commerce and
Industry (CCI) called on District Police Office and demanded security in industrial sector. The
business community is often targeted by criminal gangs and underground outfits for extortion.

 30 April, Siraha, Lahan, Epidemic of diarrhea is spreading rapidly across the district flowing
the sudden climb of the temperature. Around 10 patients are visiting local hospital daily which
is speedily growing since last week.

 30 April, Sunsari, Sonapur-2,Property worth at least NRs. 1.5 million was damaged when fire
engulfed Pashupati Edible Oil Factory in industrial corridor of the district.

 30 April, Morang, Biratnagar, A shortage of petroleum products has been felt in the eastern
region after the stock in the depots of Nepal Oil Corporation started depleting following a cut in
supply by Indian Oil Corporation, which wants the NOC pay its dues first before resuming
fully regular supply.

 1 May, Rupandehi, Bhairahawa, An unidentified gang detonated a bomb inside the house of
Moaist lawmaker killing one person. Locals informed that the gang fled toward India.

 1 May, Chitawan, Narayanghat, CPN/Maoist cadres severely beat up Assistant Health Worker
after he refused to abide by a kangaroo court verdict.

 1 May, Saptari, Rajbiraj, An unidentified gang opened fire on a senior left party leader at his
residence. He was heat in the chest when he refused to rent room for them.

 1 May, Kathmandu, Nepal Police arrested nearly 70 Tibetan protestors trying to demonstrate in
front of the Chinese Embassy. And, security at China bordering districts has been beefed up at
late due to the Free Tibet Movement in China.

 1 May, Siraha, Maoist cadre injured when an unidentified gang shot at him.

 2 May, Saptari, Rajbiraj, Thirty-two houses of 13 families were destroyed by fire that broke out
on night. Property worth NRs. 4 million was damaged and 16 domestic animals were killed.

 2 May, Rautahat, Chandranigahapur, An unidentified group abducted VDC Secretary from his
residence at Jayanagar of the district.

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 2 May, Siraha, A group of eight-ten armed robbers made away with properties worth NRs.
300,000 from three houses in Laminiya-8 of the district.

 2 May, Parsha, Birgunj, Police arrested a youth with 70 fake Indian currency notes of Rs. 500
denomination and the case is under investigation.

 2 May, Kailali, Clash between police and land less dwellers took place where nearly 11 persons
injured. Police tried to relocate them as the forest has been encroachment illegally.

 2 May, Kathmandu, NEFIN threatens for the protest as political parties failed to ensure
representation in the CA of at least 20 marginalized groups, thereby violating the agreement.

 2 May, Humla, At least sixteen persons were injured in a clash that took place between police
and students, as the latter tried to lock up the District Administration Office and Telecom
Office in protest against the alleged irregularities in the distribution of mobile sim cards.
 3 May, Kathmandu, The US, which still regards the CPN/Maoist as a terrorist organization, has
indicated it would seek ‘legitimate reconciliation and reintegration politically’ in Nepal after
the Maoists’ election victory which indicated by the Senior US Officials.
 3 May, Sunsari, Ramgunj, JTMM-J abducted a hilly person who is originally from Kathmandu,
in the charge of women trafficking to India.
 3 May, Nawalparashi, An unidentified gang looted a local businessman including other locals.
 3 May, Sunsari, Jhumka, Police arrested one person with weapons who has been accused for
the involvement of looting in the different places of the district.
 4 May, Kathmandu, The GoN has decided to provide NRs. 100,000 to each family who lost
their member due to a decade long insurgency in Nepal. It will be burden of 3 billion to the
Ministry of Finance. It is expected that the number may roughly 14,000 across the country. The
support will also be distributed to Nepal army and Police.
 4 May, Bardia, Fire has been raging in National Park and National and Community forest even
in Banke since two weeks and is yet to be brought under control as it is spreading rapidly.
 4 May, Furnishing their preliminary reports, at the Election Commission, nine national and four
international poll observer organizations, however, said that despite the very volatile security
situation and poor law enforcement, all must be satisfied with the poll.
 4 May, Jhapa, Damak, Several Bhutanese refugees in the camps are receiving threats of killing
by the unidentified underground group called ‘Black Cat’.
 4 May, Lalitpur, Nakhipot, it has been theft nearly worth 60,000 from a residence in Lalitpur
which occurred mainly during load shedding period.
 4 May, Saptari, According to source, nearly 6 persons, in an average, have been kidnapped by
the different underground and unsocial armed groups across the district.

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 4 May, Rupendehi, Narayanghat-Butwal sector was bandha due to chakkajam caused by raod
accident imposed by locals.
 4 May, Kapilbastu, Ramnagar, Nearly 1 dozen locals have been beten up by Terai Madhesh
Democratic Party (TMDP) for not casting vote for them in the CA poll. Dozens of local people
have been displaced to other parts of district due to fear of action by TMDP.
 4 May, Banke, JTMM groups killed a Maoist cader at Bethani-3 by shooting him up.
 4 May, Bhaktapur, Thimi-Sankhadhowor sector of Arniko highway was disturbed due to a
motorbike accident and locals interrupted the movement for some hours.
 4 May, Saptari, Locals have killed JTMM-J cadre by beating up him at Tikulia VDC.
 4 May, Parsha, The physicians of Narayani Hospital at Birgunj organized a strike and shut all
the services including emergency for not supporting the hospital management as it was a
conflict between doctors and management.

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