Energy Research in the ETH Domain

Executive Summary

Science and Technology for

Sustainable Energy
2 Motivations for Energy Research
Motivations for Energy
Research
The research community in the ETH domain* con-
siders ubiquitous access to affordable energy as one of
the primary goods for any modern society. Energy pow-
ers industrial processes and enables widespread serv-
ices for every citizen, e.g. transportation, heating and
numerous household services. Furthermore, electricity
drives lighting and most information services that are so
important that electricity is called the “key-energy”.
The vision has been formulated in a detailed report
Energy Research in the ETH Domain (100 pages) that is
addressed to the research community, graduate stu-
dents, and the public interested in energy research. The
present Executive Summary highlights the challenges,
possible solutions and contributions from the ETH
domain, summarizes the main research areas presented
in the detailed report, and focuses on the goals, roadmap,
and recommendations for future research.
The Challenges
Not so much energy use by itself, but the associated
material flows are primarily causing problems to mankind
and threaten to trigger global alterations, as e.g. they give
rise to dangerous change of the earth‘s climate. This in-
sight is derived from the simple fact that the present pri-
mary energy use of mankind corresponds to only 0.1‰ of
the solar energy flux impinging onto the earth. As a conse-
quence, any direct effect of human energy use on the
global surface temperature is negligible. However, there
are indirect effects where human activities have already
significantly altered the pre-industrial state of relevant in-
dicators. The best known example is the atmospheric CO2
concentration that has been increased by 1/3 due to the
anthropogenic burning of fossil fuels, giving rise to warm-
ing by the greenhouse effect (reflection of infrared radia-
tion by the earth‘s atmosphere).
* The ETH domain comprises the two Swiss Federal Institutes
of Technology at Zürich and Lausanne (ETH Zürich and EPFL),
and the four research institutions Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI),
Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Research and Test-
ing (EMPA), Swiss Federal Institute for Water Resources and
Water Pollution Control (EAWAG), and Swiss Federal Re-
search Institute for Forestry, Snow and Landscape (WSL).
Resource scarcity represents a second challenge.
Even though the volume of remaining oil resources is a
subject of heated debate, there is consensus that we are
approaching the peak production point in the near future.
Other examples include the deforestation of large (on a
global scale) geographical areas, the depletion of fish
populations in the oceans and the deposition of solid, liq-
uid, and gaseous waste materials that have changed the
state of ecosystems and the atmosphere (e.g. the ozone
hole endangering all forms of life existing on the earth’s
surface).
As a consequence, to realize a sustainable energy
system means to close the material flows associated with
human energy use into cycles. This is even the case for
nuclear energy, despite its extremely small mass flows.
Here one reason to further decrease the material flows is
social acceptance, in addition to the ecological incentives.
The total amount of carbon released into the atmosphere
is given by the product of world population (cap), produc-
tivity (GDP/cap), energy intensity (energy/GDP), and
carbon intensity (carbon/energy). Hence, while a focus
on the carbon intensity is important, the global energy
intensity will also be decisive for achieving the climate
protection and mitigation goals for CO2 and other green-
house gases. The total energy demand will rise due to a
growing world population, and particularly due to eco-
nomic development in highly populated world regions,
representing more than 85% of world population.
Solutions and Rewards
Energy scenarios (EU 2005) that take into account
the ecological concerns, and aim at avoiding dangerous
climate change (stabilizing the atmospheric CO2 concen-
tration at 450 ppm, restricting the global mean tempera-
ture rise to 2 °C in the 21st century, or to 0.2 °C per dec-
ade), often postulate that the global primary energy
demand should not more than double by the end of this
century (from 400 to 800 EJ), and that the share of fossil
fuels should drop to 25% by 2100.
There are essentially three elements that can con-
tribute towards limiting the overall primary energy de-
mand and the related carbon emissions:
– substitution of fossil fuels by CO2-free primary energies
– efficiency increases (with respect to energy, material,
and processes)
– demand-side management.
Motivations for Energy Research
Full energy chains can be viewed in both directions.
In the economic sciences, it is usual to start with the
demand for energy services and scrutinize the amount of
useful energy required to provide the service. Then one
analyzes the efficiency of generating useful energy from
end energy, and in turn end energy from primary energy,
and finally one determines which primary energy options
should be used. With the results of such analysis availa-
ble, the present brochure traces full energy chains in the
opposite direction, which is more appropriate in physical
sciences, i.e. from primary energy to energy services.
In this ordering, the first element of a CO2 mitiga-
tion strategy is primary energy substitution. Substitution
of coal and oil by natural gas and also CO2-removal and
sequestration from centralized coal-fired power plants
are considered as important first steps. In the long term,
CO2-free primary energies will have to provide for the
major part of the world‘s energy demand. It is here where
renewables and nuclear energy (including fusion) will
have to play an important role. Renewables hold a large
potential, the portfolio ranging from hydropower, tradi-
tional and advanced technological options of biomass
utilization, to the so-called new renewables including
solar energy, wind energy, geothermal heat and power
generation, wave and tidal energy. Nuclear fission is a
major component of the CO2-free energy mixes of the
future. The development of a more sustainable version of
nuclear energy systems, with respect to resource pres-
ervation, safety, waste reduction, proliferation resistance
and cost, is key to the improvement of its social accept-
ance, that would allow a more intensive use of this option
to significantly reduce CO2 emissions. The focus of the
ETH domain in fusion research within the European and
international framework, complements this effort.
Primary energy substitution is important not only in
view of climate protection, but also for enhancing the
security of supply of the Swiss energy system. It is also
a well-known fact that oil (and, to some extent, also natu-
ral gas) reserves are concentrated in politically less stable
parts of the world. With further depletion of resources, a
re-concentration of oil production in the Middle East is
unavoidable. A strategy targeted at partial alleviation of
the dependence on imported fossil fuels will hence also
improve Switzerland‘s energy independence.
There are even wider implications of an energy
strategy that combines a reduction of per capita primary
energy consumption with fossil fuel substitution. First,
3
there are important secondary benefits for a country,
ranging from positive health effects (resulting from re-
duced air pollution) via competitive economic advantages
(strengthening the economy by technological innova-
tions as a first mover in developing ecologically compat-
ible technologies) to the creation of employment by tap-
ping domestic primary energy resources. Second, it is
widely recognized that global climate protection will, in
the long run, only be possible if the effort is joined (apart
from all industrialized nations) by nations with large
populations (such as China and India) that are presently
undergoing rapid economic development. It is likely that
the willingness of these nations to adopt mitigation goals
will depend on whether industrial countries are willing to
play a paragon role, and implement significant CO2 reduc-
tions on their own behalf.
The second strategic element of a sustainable en-
ergy path is an increase of the energetic efficiency for a
given material flow. In fact, the technical potential for the
reduction of primary energy for the same energy services
has been found to range from 20 to 80%, depending on
the application. A related strategic lever resides in the
material and utilization efficiency of products and devices.
For example, as we learn to produce machines, buildings,
vehicles or everyday products with less amounts of en-
ergy-intensive materials such as steel, aluminum, or
concrete, both the consumption of mineral resources and
the need for process energy will decline. Where it is ap-
plicable, the recycling and reprocessing of materials usu-
ally requires only a fraction of the energy input needed for
the production of virgin materials from primary mineral
feedstocks. The leasing rather than single user ownership
of heavy equipment (in industry, construction, and agricul-
ture) can enhance the utilization efficiency, and decrease
resource consumption accordingly.
The third element, demand-side management, is
based on the concept of providing energy services, rather
than final or useful energy. For example, the demand for
heating energy can be drastically reduced by well-insu-
lated houses with passive solar architecture and heat re-
covery; the need for artificial illumination is alleviated by
advanced daylight illumination systems; and the demand
for mechanical propulsion energy in transportation is de-
creased by telecommunication and by higher utilization
intensity (load factor, number of passengers, car sharing).
In the future, energy demand will increasingly be influ-
enced by information and communication technologies,
4 Motivations for Energy Research
e.g. the trend towards portable wireless devices equipped
with sensors (pervasive computing) will stimulate the
development of portable energy systems. The general
trend towards a global information society will have com-
plex positive and negative impacts on energy demand and
requires systematic observance in energy research.
Finally, another important aspect are consumer
habits and preferences, intimately linked to the concept
of sufficiency at a high level of comfort. The latter issues
are very important for the success of a sustainability
strategy in industrialized countries. Selected socio-eco-
nomic aspects are investigated within the ETH domain.
On a wider scope, they are pursued in collaboration with
partners from universities and other research institutions
for social sciences.
Related to the above strategies is the issue of re-
ducing the emissions of solid, liquid, and gaseous wastes.
In this context, the term waste is used in its most gen-
eral sense, ranging from the combustion end product
released to the atmosphere, via gaseous and particulate
atmospheric pollutants, to waste emissions into water,
landfills, solid and toxic waste repositories, and the inter-
mediate and final storage of radioactive waste. Hence, if
we are talking e.g. of a zero emission combustion system
below, the avoidance of both, net CO2 and pollutant emis-
sions, will be implied.
The Contribution of the Research
Community of the ETH Domain
Energy research within the ETH domain is oriented
towards contributing to the global goals outlined above.
Scientists and engineers are working in international col-
laborations, and have oriented their research to be in line
with some of the overarching trends mentioned above.
The present survey on research activities in the ETH do-
main is organized along the energy chain from primary to
useful energy. Hence, in chapters 2–15 of the full text of
the main report, the reader will find a highly condensed
account of the following elements of a strategy towards
sustainability of energy consumption and supply:
– fossil fuel substitution by renewables (chapter 3), nu-
clear energy by fission (chapter 4) and in the long term
by fusion (chapter 5)
– storage, transport and distribution of electricity (chapter 6)
– fostering of low-carbon fuels like methane and hydro-
gen (chapter 7)
– efficiency increases and emission reductions along
energy conversion chains (chapter 8)
– tailoring of advanced materials and technologies and
their application in energy systems (chapter 9 and 10)
– providing process heat for industrial processes (ch. 11)
– rational use of energy, by providing more energy serv-
ices and higher material use efficiency with less end
energy and useful energy input (chapter 12)
– assessment of the consequences of energy use on hu-
mans, ecosystems, and material structures (ch. 13–15)
New energy systems will only be accepted if they
create more opportunities and offer more services than
presumed risks for society, both for business and for the
individual consumer. Therefore an assessment of oppor-
tunities and risks in terms of environmental and socio-
economic impact, and of acceptability and acceptance of
new energy technologies must be part of the research
strategy. This can be achieved by methods of technology
assessment or innovation and technology analysis (chap-
ter 15). In a global perspective, these approaches must
address the feasibility and accessibility of energy options
for all regions of the globe and their impacts on develop-
ment and societies.
As mentioned in the above paragraphs, hydrogen
as an energy carrier offers many advantages. However,
one should strictly avoid promoting hydrogen as the
“silver bullet” that would solve the problems of the en-
ergy system, and quit discussing the hydrogen economy.
One should in particular argue against the misconception
of the general public that hydrogen is an energy source.
It is just an energy carrier, that has to be produced before
being used. Therefore, hydrogen production needs en-
ergy sources. For an effective introduction of hydrogen,
one needs to balance supply and demand technology
development. What is needed is a comprehensive analy-
sis that includes advantages and disadvantages, the
merits of hydrogen relative to other energy carriers for a
specific application, the location and scale of production,
the price relative to other options of achieving CO2 reduc-
tions, as well as intergenerational issues of resource
depletion.
Key issues are balancing relative strengths in pro-
duction, delivery and consumption. As mentioned, the
efficiency of the chain from primary energy to energy
services is of key importance, and a balanced develop-
ment all along the energy chain is required (Figure 1).
Hydrogen will, therefore, be one among several energy
Motivations for Energy Research 5

Fig. 1 Energy flow diagram

Projected Energy Flow Diagram 2050 for Switzerland showing the
vision of the 2000 Watt society
for 2050. Required energy
Energy services Useful energy of 5 PJ
Plastics, services (left) are satisfied
final energy sectors
Heated rooms asphalt Non-energetic with a primary energy input
(in m2) Space heat consumption (right) that is reduced by a
Industrial products Process heat factor of 2.5 compared to the
(in tons)
Primary Energy present value (source:
Mobility Motive power
~ 460 PJ novatlantis).
(in passenger km) Other drives
Automation, cooling Illumination Final Energy ~ 365 PJ
Illuminated areas Information, Industry ~ 85 PJ Transformation losses
(in m2) (incl. 23 PJ distribution losses)
communication Transportation ~ 160 PJ
PC-, phone- and Private households ~ 70 PJ 20 %
internet use Trade, commerce, etc. ~ 50 PJ ~ 90 PJ

Useful energy 52 % 27 % Losses for generating

~ 240 PJ ~ 125 PJ useful energy

carriers within a diversified energy system and must be
part of an integrated vision of sustainability.
The Vision of the ETH Domain
Towards a Sustainable Energy Path
The ETH domain has developed the vision of the
2000 Watt society as a roadmap for future energy R&D
policy and innovation of energy systems within the next
decades. The use of 2000 Watt per capita (or 65 GJ per
capita and year) corresponds to about one third of today’s
energy use in Western Europe. Authors from the ETH
domain have shown that although ambitious, the vision
is technically feasible. Of course, the overall energy con-
sumption of 2000 Watt per capita is not the most impor-
tant measure for global sustainability. In view of climate
change, an indicator based on carbon release per capita
and per year would be more relevant.
From a basic point of view, our planet earth is a
closed system with respect to materials, but receives
continuous energy input from the sun and loses an
equivalent energy flux by infrared radiation (Figure 2). In
such a system, the maintenance of a state of low entropy,
which might be taken as synonymous to sustainability, is
possible in principle. This means that intelligent control-
ling of material flows can avoid a future state of complete
disorder, where all materials are homogeneously mixed.
It implies curbing material flows and realizing closed
material cycles, whereby the necessary energy input is
derived from the external source of the sun or from abun-
dant planetary sources (geothermal heat, nuclear). In the
realization of this vision, the ETH domain engages in:
– science and technology development, implying materi-
als, technical systems and methodologies
– creation of knowledge as a basis for decision makers
in politics, industry, and society, including knowledge
of societal impacts of technologies
– establishment of facts, data, data bases, modeling
tools, engineering platforms
– technical applications, demonstrations and implementa-
tions, which are based on and made possible by continu-
ous pursuit of excellence in the fundamental sciences
– education in all energy related issues.
The main report is completed by a brief statistical
section giving facts and figures for energy research in the
ETH domain (chapter 16), and a selection of a few ac-
counts of highly successful ETH domain projects in en-
ergy research (chapter 17). Finally, an outlook and some
recommendations are given (chapter 18).
Fig. 2 The concept of a global energy system with closed material
cycles, in which a sustainable state of low entropy can be
maintained based on continuous energy input from the sun and
planetary sources (source: PSI).
6 Main Research Areas
Main Research Areas
Primary Energy
Today by far the largest source of primary energy
stems from burning Fossil Fuels (coal, oil, natural gas).
The emission of CO2, SO2, NOx and particulates affects
the climate and human health. Even in the most ambi-
tious environmentally driven scenarios, the share of
fossil fuels in global primary energy demand is not ex-
pected to fall below 50% before 2050, and to 25% be-
fore 2100. As a consequence, one response of science
must be to use fossil fuels as efficiently as possible.
Nevertheless the substitution of the fossil fuels
must be a long term goal. Several options of Renewable
Primary Energies (hydroelectricity, geothermal energy,
wind energy, biomass, solar energy) exist with different
size and prospective market shares. In the next 20 years
the hydro-power plants in the Alps have to be renewed,
optimized and refurbished, requiring investments of 10
to 20 billion CHF. Frequent start-stop cycles ask for ad-
vanced fluid mechanics, material development and com-
putational efforts. Geothermal energy may be deployed
in selected sites in Switzerland, and investigations for
drilling technology and energy conversion have started.
Regarding wind power the ETH domain, aside from con-
sidering the questions related to the management of a
network of many small and medium size independent
power producers, is not active in this relatively mature
field of mechanical engineering. Biogas, fermentation of
biomass to ethanol, woody biomass gasified to syn-
thetic natural gas and hydrothermal gasification of wet
biomass are actively pursued in the ETH domain. Solar
energy has several facets: photovoltaics with silicon
based thin film technology; potentially much cheaper
polymer solar cells; solar thermal power, and the produc-
tion of hydrogen with a solar chemical process are routes
towards a substitution of part of the fossil fuels. A frac-
tion of 39% of Switzerland‘s electricity is from Nuclear
Energy. Research in Fission concentrates on topics of
high burn-up, thermal-hydraulics modeling, safety is-
sues, and high temperature material development for
future high temperature reactors for electricity and hy-
drogen production. In the distant future Nuclear Fusion
will also be an option. Research in the physics of plasmas
with related material research is going on as an interna-
tional endeavor.
Efficient Energy Conversion and Storage
Electricity can not be stored in large quantities, and
roughly half of the price of electricity originates from its
transport and distribution. Storage, Transport, and Distribu-
tion of Electricity is therefore an important field of research.
Topics like pump storage plants, power electronics, ad-
vanced high power batteries, super capacitors for mobile
applications, energy storage by electrolytic hydrogen pro-
duction are examples of technical challenges, and their
solutions together with scenarios for transmission and
distribution will provide information for policy makers. Hy-
drogen is an alternative energy carrier. Like electricity it is
not a primary energy source and should be produced in a
sustainable manner. Its production from fossil fuels bears
no advantage, although this option may play a role in the
short term and as an element of carbon capture and stor-
age. Efforts are being made to derive it using renewable
energy and from process heat generated by solar or nu-
clear energy. Hydrogen transport or storage in an eco-
nomically affordable manner is still far from solved, with
competing technology paths for storage in the forms of
liquid, compressed gas, or metal hydride. But hydrogen is
already used today in many industrial processes. Future
additional applications are in fuel cells or as additive in gaso-
line driven passenger cars or turbo machinery. It is a law of
nature, that in all Conversions from Primary to Useful En-
ergy a fraction of the input energy is lost in the process.
Optimizations can only reduce these losses to a minimum.
Other requirements for future energy converters are the
ultra-low emission capability concerning locally and region-
ally acting pollutants (such as NOx, SOx, unburnt hydrocar-
bons) and the long-term target of minimizing globally rele-
vant greenhouse gas emissions (usually expressed in
CO2-equivalents). Sophisticated equipment and simulation
tools are necessary to investigate the combustion proc-
esses in detail. Research into high and low temperature fuel
cells calls for large efforts in material science. The scale-up
to realistic hybrid cars with fuel cells and super capacitors
helps to understand the path to economically manufactur-
ing for a mass market. Also fuel reforming needs research
in ceramics and other high temperature materials.
Demand for Energy Services
Efficient use of energy for providing the desired serv-
ices is key for decreasing per capita energy demand. The
Main Research Areas
building sector currently demands more than 40% of total
energy use in the EU as well as in Switzerland. The biggest
impact on CO2-reduction is therefore possible in the field of
Low Temperature Heat and Buildings including air condition-
ing. The ETH domain plays an important role in merging new
technologies and knowledge in new fields such as building
design, construction and operation. Large-scale spreading
of new energy savings and renewables technologies in the
building sector requires the generation of scientific knowl-
edge and technologies appropriate to the urban context.
Links exist even to new discoveries in nano-science
and nano-technology in terms of new materials. The im-
plementation of knowledge is most pressing in the light
of long reinvestment cycles. Life cycle analysis has be-
come an important issue when evaluating new technolo-
gies, and the unique international database for life cycle
inventories (ecoinvent) built up in the ETH domain is an
essential tool for modelers and decision makers. Thou-
sands of technologies are operated in the sector of Proc-
ess Heat and Industrial Processes, their energy relevance
very often being unknown due to their variety and hetero-
geneity. Education in waste heat recovery, coupled proc-
esses, industrial batch processes, and extended lifetimes
belongs to the portfolio of an engineering school.
Society enjoys a growing number of Appliances
using only small amounts of portable energy. Research
in the ETH domain focuses on the Lithium-ion battery,
conversion between AC-DC-AC in portable power sup-
plies and various projects in micro turbines, micro fuel
cells, thermo-electric generators, etc.
In 1960 we lived in Switzerland in a 2000 W society,
with large differences to today‘s increased energy need
resulting from the Heated Areas and the Transportation
sector. Mobility has also a social dimension. Work on one
hand has to concentrate on the demand side (modal split,
public transportation, urban planning) and on the other side
on more efficiency and less pollutants in individual trans-
portation means. The technological route investigated
goes in the direction of hybrid cars, light weight construc-
tion, and fuel cell power trains. The combustion research
for more efficient vehicles is an important ingredient.
Assessment and Cross Cutting Issues
Energy technologies produce by-products which
harm the environment. Environmental Effects of Energy
Technologies are a central topic. Global warming from the
7
emission of greenhouse gases could be reduced by se-
questration of carbon dioxide, atmospheric pollutants from
the combustion of fossil fuels should be reduced as much
as possible, and the retention and migration of nuclear
waste in long-term repositories on a molecular and macro-
scopic level should be fully understood and controlled, to
name a few issues. The best strategy is always to reduce
harmful waste at the source. However, the measurement
of impacts and the development of Tools and Methods for
Integration are also looked at in the ETH domain. Systems
for power generation, transport, storage, conversion and
efficient use of appropriate forms of energy can be ex-
tremely complex in that they interlink several components
and processes with a scale of space and time varying
across many orders of magnitude. It needs sensors, so-
phisticated models and software to control processes.
Multi-scale problems are also difficult topics in computa-
tional science. Energy Systems Analysis provides a global
view of energy issues and a comprehensive assessment
of energy systems. Given the technological background of
the ETH domain, socio-economic research topics in col-
laboration with cantonal universities are also relevant.
Process driven, risk driven, or economically driven solu-
tions are combined to give the global view. Acceptance in
society is also a very important boundary condition. Given
the long timescales to introduce new or to replace current
technologies, the education of students, orientation of the
policy makers in politics and industry and the information
of the general public are important missions of the ETH
domain. One should underline that the expected market is
of several 100 billions of CHF in a not so distant future.
Achievements and Success Stories
Of all energy research activities in Switzerland, by
far the largest fraction (> 50%) is carried out in the ETH
domain, which spends about 6 % of its federal budget on
energy-related issues. The output of energy research is,
on the one hand, documented by peer reviewed publica-
tions, patents and spin-offs. On the other hand, talented
young persons are studying energy related topics across
the ETH domain. PhD students, working on their thesis
within the institutions, will carry cutting-edge knowledge
into society and industry.
Fundamental research is a long-term process that
often receives less attention than spectacular events of
daily life. Yet science can proudly boast of its Success Sto-
8 Goals, Roadmap and Recommendations
ries. Just a few selected examples are presented in the
main report for illustration. They include advances in hydro-
electricity and solar energy utilization, reduction of waste
by more efficient burn-up of nuclear fuel, and the heating
of fusion plasmas to temperatures well beyond 100 million
Kelvin. Fundamental understanding of combustion proc-
esses has led to the development of efficient, low-NOx gas
engines that pave the way for “zero-impact” methane
based mobility. Fuel cells have demonstrated their poten-
tial both for portable power and for transport technology
with unprecedented efficiency. In the building sector, the
combination of low-energy houses with passive and active
solar systems can lower the energy demand far below to-
day‘s best practice. The improvements of the energy sec-
tor are verified by atmospheric measurements, assessed
in terms of ecological inventories, and translated into sce-
narios for a more sustainable energy future.
Goals, Roadmap and
Recommendations
Strategic Goals
According to the introductory thoughts mentioned
above, we summarize the major challenges that the glo-
bal energy system faces in the 21st century as follows:
– Secure the coverage of energy needs, both in the in-
dustrial world and in developing countries or emerging
economies.
– Combat climate change, in particular minimize CO2-
release into the atmosphere.
– Reduce dependence on unreliable supply and import
of limited primary energy resources.
– Minimize energy-induced local and regional atmos-
pheric pollution (zero-emission systems).
– Decrease energy system cost by higher efficiency.
Energy Research in the ETH domain should ad-
dress these issues with continuity and dedication, while
fulfilling the criteria that world-class academic institu-
tions recognize as essential, i.e.
– Creation of new knowledge (pushing science fron-
tiers).
– International competitiveness (world is a benchmark).
– Relevance for society (in our particular case: intensify
the co-operation with the Swiss industry; on a global
scale, go beyond Kyoto requirements).
A Hierarchy of Priorities –
Towards a Robust Roadmap for
Energy Research
Given the complexity of the energy sector as a
whole and the challenges it faces during this century, a
successful energy research strategy must be long-term
oriented, considering the long time scales of innovation,
diffusion and substitution processes. Due to the global
character of energy related problems, a strategy can
only be developed within an international vision. It should
then derive strategic priorities out of a robust scenario
approach, that recognizes and adequately considers not
only multiple interconnections among energy sectors and
technologies along the energy conversion chain, but also
chances and risks of expected technical or economic
break-throughs and of public acceptance.
From such a perspective, a list of seven major steps
for establishing a sustainable energy system within the
next 50 years and beyond could read as follows:
A. Contributions will have to come from all sectors of
energy use and conversion, as well as from changes
in material use efficiency and in the behavior of a mul-
titude of actors in society. The technical potentials are
based on two principles: reducing losses of energy
along the energy conversion chain and decreasing the
share of fossil fuels by substitution of the energy
sources. A key action for decreasing the transforma-
tion losses of thermal conversion processes is the
increase of the process temperatures, which raises
many R&D issues, e.g. in materials development.
B. Enable a gradual, but fast transition of the electricity
generation system from coal to natural gas to “CO2-
free“ (which will be a mix of renewables and nuclear
fission and, in a longer term, fusion energy). Replac-
ing (old) coal-fired power plants with advanced com-
bined-cycle gas turbines (later perhaps: hybrid fuel
cell/gas turbine cycles) is the fastest and most cost-
efficient path to achieve significant CO2-reductions in
the power generation sector. As this strategy of trans-
formation still involves release of CO2 into the atmos-
phere, CO2 removal from centralized power stations,
refineries, oil and gas fields and subsequent storage
in exploited gas fields and aquifers may be necessary
as an intermediate technology in this century.
C. Decarbonize as fast as possible the low-temperature
heating sector (buildings), predominantly through
Goals, Roadmap and Recommendations
heat pumps (electrification of heat storage and trans-
port) and modern bio-fuels as well as support through
solar-thermal technologies. Low-energy-demand
buildings, according to already established technolo-
gies, need to – and can – in parallel penetrate the
market fast. Probably the most significant contribu-
tions to primary energy savings and CO2-emission
reductions in Switzerland during the next 30 years
can be achieved in this energy sector, the scientific
and engineering basis for that being mature and the
economics at the break even point in the case of new
buildings and low temperature heat systems.
D. In parallel, R&D should be devoted to major efficiency
increases in transportation technology and should
address the large-scale decarbonization of the trans-
portation system in the long term as well. This is,
however, only meaningful after a significant share of
low-temperature heat and electricity generation be-
comes and stays CO2-free, respectively. Candidate
technologies are hydrogen-based electrochemical
converters (fuel cells) and direct electric propulsion
(electric motors, batteries). The outcome of the com-
petition for the two technologies will depend on
technology breakthroughs in storage and transport of
these energy carriers and on the mix of available band
or intermittent, renewable and/or nuclear electricity
generation sources. Once an electricity path has been
chosen, direct electric propulsion is superior in terms
of conversion efficiency. For the final transportation
service, this advantage holds only for equal vehicle
weights, i.e. the weight of the batteries must be re-
duced compared to today’s standards. For the next
two to three decades, improvements towards an
environmental-friendly mobility will include zero local
emission (mostly chemo-thermo-mechanical) con-
verters, hybridization and partial electrification as well
as transfer of technology breakthroughs from auto-
motive to large-size converters (a field of paramount
importance for Swiss industry with world-leading
companies in power generation and marine propul-
sion). Freight transportation (of which 90% relies on
ships!) is presumably the one sector, where liquid
fossil fuels may survive longest.
E. Parallel to research and technology development in the
individual energy sectors, bio-fuels and designer-fuels
on a synthetic basis should be introduced where
meaningful and cost-efficient, so that combat against
9
climate change is supported through carbon-free or
CO2-neutral conversion cycles. Biomass availability is
by far not enough to cover all energy needs, but it can
have a supportive function. Stationary applications of
bio-fuels for electricity generation are promising,
whereas specific situations and economic benefits
may justify their introduction to transportation. An im-
portant issue in this context is that intelligent co-firing
(coexistence of fossil and renewable primary energy
sources feeding the same final energy demand) may
be essential in enabling a cost-efficient transition to
sustainability (e.g. wind energy and hydroelectric or
combined-cycle plants, decentralized biogas and natu-
ral gas cogeneration, solar-thermal and fossil electric-
ity, etc.). Synthetic fuels – partially based on reforming
processes – are also emerging and show promise for
performance improvement of energy converters.
F. More efficient use of materials, additional recycling
of energy-intensive and lighter materials for the same
purpose will all contribute to reducing the quantity of
materials produced and hence, the energy demand.
The fact that advances in material science and mod-
ern information and control technology help to
achieve energy demand reductions is often over-
looked, although it is an essential factor in achieving
a sustainable energy system. Entrepreneurial innova-
tions and new services (e.g. car sharing, outsourcing)
will support these options; pooling will intensify the
use of machinery, plants, and vehicles.
G. Long-term, coherent, fundamental and systems orient-
ed research is necessary to create a clear picture of the
potential of the hydrogen economy. Storage, transporta-
tion and conversion may be important targets for im-
provement, but the decisive issue will be CO2-free hy-
drogen production at much higher efficiency than current
cycles involving electrolysis. Nuclear thermo-chemical
cycles are promising options for centralized hydrogen
production that need to be pursued. Solar-chemical or
solar-thermal cycles are the ultimate goal, if a hydrogen-
production efficiency much higher than is possible with
today’s technology can be demonstrated.
Key Scientific Disciplines
Technology breakthroughs follow long-term funda-
mental research in key scientific disciplines. The follow-
ing areas, directly related to the above mentioned tech-
10
nology targets, should be supported with high priority on
a balanced long-term research portfolio:
– Materials science (materials withstanding very high
temperatures, being flexible, adaptive, and intelligent,
having a very high mechanical strength-to-weight ratio,
being nano-manufactured for optimal thermal, me-
chanical and electric properties).
– Reactive flows (complex coupling of flow- and chemi-
cal time scales, heterogeneous and homogeneous
reactions in microstructures of porous media, model
reduction techniques).
– More selective, but high performance membranes,
substituting thermal separation processes, new im-
proved biotechnological processes substituting high
temperature and high pressure synthesis.
– Catalyst development for fuel synthesis, processing,
and exhaust gas purification; active fuel cell electro-
catalysts requiring less noble metals; design of cata-
lytic process alternatives with drastically lowered
quantities of input energy, solvents, and by-products.
– Advanced computational methods for multi-scale sim-
ulations from the atomic or molecular to the full sys-
tems level, including novel optimization techniques
(genetic algorithms, design of experiments, etc.).
– New micro-fabricated, robust, miniaturized, low cost
sensors for in-situ, online monitoring and diagnostics
as well as model-based and remote control methods.
An issue of increasing importance is the adequate
consideration of socio-economic aspects and the early
involvement of social science in energy related research.
The core competence of the ETH domain being natural
science and technology, this means that the existing
nucleus of social and economic scientists within the ETH
domain must be significantly extended through collabo-
rations with universities in Switzerland and abroad.
Areas that received little attention so far in the ETH
domain energy research portfolio are geothermal energy
(cf. initiatives started in Zürich and Basel), wind energy
(less important for Switzerland than for Europe as a whole
and rather mature in terms of scientific challenges), and
health science related to energy systems (links to technol-
ogy experts need to be strengthened). The development
of a strategic scenario platform, which will be able to incor-
porate knowledge within the ETH domain for global sys-
tem optimization and long-term, coherent strategy defini-
tion is very important in order to increase the efficiency of
the R&D process by target orientation and self reflection.
Goals, Roadmap and Recommendations
Co-operations as a Means to Increase
Efficiency and Thrust
Wide-scale co-operation between different institu-
tions of the ETH domain, as well as within departments
of each institution, are instrumental for creating critical
mass, wherever necessary adequate interdisciplinarity,
and securing a competitive position in the international
landscape. This position is granted by equal access of
Swiss research to the EU funding system, and needs to
be strengthened in the future. Energy related research is
multifaceted, requires significant investments and no
single institution can provide the resources and expertise
for first-rate research alone. Examples of recently started
initiatives include the ETH domain Center for Energy and
Sustainable Mobility, and the Energy Science Centers at
ETHZ and EPFL. The concept of the 2000 Watt society, as
outlined in the White Book for R&D of Energy-Efficient
Technologies, may form the basis for a long-term vision for
sustainable energy supply and sustainable development.
These steps need to be complemented by addi-
tional co-operations both within Switzerland (including a
coordinated effort with BfE, KTI, National Science Founda-
tion, industry) and on an international scale (predominantly
in view of upcoming European Framework Programs) but
also worldwide, such as the established Alliance for Global
Sustainability or the Generation IV International Forum.
Finally, in view of the increasing future importance
of environment-friendly energy services and products all
over the world, a strategic alliance between the ETH
domain and Swiss export industry is urgently called for
and should be actively pursued.
Final Recommendations
Recommendation 1
The ETH domain should continue to have a broad re-
search portfolio, addressing a wide variety of energy related
problems. It should pursue world class basic science and
technological R&D. It should, however, continuously screen
activities to ensure that mature areas (research commodi-
ties) are outsourced, while focusing on the most promising
and challenging scientific and technological research areas.
Recommendation 2
Define a robust portfolio of overarching research
priorities according to the criteria of relevance both for
Goals, Roadmap and Recommendations
the mid and long term (as this presumably evolves during
the next decades) and scientific-technological challenge.
To that end, use patent analysis, expert surveys, and road
mapping as methods for adaptive learning and strategic
decision making, but encourage bottom-up initiatives and
individual researchers’ creativity.
Recommendation 3
Maintain a practically CO2-free electricity produc-
tion in Switzerland. Research in hydro-, new renewables
and nuclear energy should be an important part of the
portfolio. Heat utilization should be implemented wher-
ever possible, both for centralized and for decentralized
electricity generation. Advanced gas-fired, combined-
cycle power plants make sense where they replace less
efficient, high CO2-output use of fossil fuels, for example
to substitute old, low-efficiency coal power plants (at a
European level) or burners for domestic heating.
Recommendation 4
In the low-temperature sector concentrate on im-
plementation and rapid diffusion of our knowledge (pri-
marily to educate architects, engineers and implement-
ers) for promoting decarbonization through electrification
(heat pumps) supported by solar-thermal processes. The
potential of geothermal heat retrieval and electricity gen-
eration should be looked at in more detail.
Recommendation 5
Research in environmentally-friendly future trans-
portation systems should allow for intense competition
among thermo-electro-mechanical, electrochemical and
direct electric propulsion systems. Multiple links of this
sector with future electricity demand and associated
meaningful transition periods should be carefully consid-
ered. In this sector, with its present almost 100% oil de-
pendence, fossil (liquid) fuels will survive the longest.
Recommendation 6
Energy systems analysis with assessment of tech-
nology potential and performance, impacts on environ-
ment and costs, needs a continuous effort and enables
orientation within the maze of options. This is a field for
interdisciplinary research, where the ETH domain should
be a partner to large-scale activities in social sciences at
universities. These in turn are invited to contribute their
expertise in collaborative programs, where the ETH do-
11
main internal nucleus of social scientists provides a
strong link.
Recommendation 7
Explore ways to substitute fossil fuels by CO2-neu-
tral (biomass) or carbon-free fuels (hydrogen) investing in
production, storage and distribution networks. Here and
in all radically new technologies, go as far as large-scale
(pilot) tests in co-operation with industry partners.
Recommendation 8
Benefit from leverage through national and interna-
tional collaborations. Through high-level contributions of
the ETH domain we first gain influence on how the energy
system develops on a global scale (climate change affects
mankind) and second, get access to world-wide produced
knowledge that should be transferred to Swiss industry.
Recommendation 9
Continue collaborations within and among the insti-
tutions driven primarily by scientific interest. Within this
frame, balance thereby strategic top-down initiatives
with cultivation of bottom-up generated research; the
latter is usually the motor of innovation and, if successful,
needs some but not too tight coordination. Act however
in a coherent way (communication) to the outside world
and understand the creation of competence centers in
this way.
Recommendation 10
A robust, economical and globally sustainable en-
ergy system will continue to provide the backbone for
the well-being of future societies. As about 8% of the
GNP is directly related to energy services and products,
at least a similar, if not higher fraction of the ETH domain
budget should be spent in research and education on
energy related issues, in view of increased importance
in the future.
Recommendation 11
Education of scientists, engineers and architects in
energy and energy relevant issues is an important com-
ponent of any energy policy and R&D strategy. Effort
should be promoted in this field to recruit new talents.
This effort will indirectly be beneficial to the orientation
of policy makers and to the information available to the
public.
 Impressum
Scientific Editors
K. Boulouchos, ETH Zürich
J.- M. Cavedon, PSI
R. Eichler, ETH Board
F. Gassmann, PSI
L. Schlapbach, EMPA
M.Q. Tran, EPF Lausanne
A. Wokaun, PSI

Design
M. Schlapbach, PSI

Print
Paul Scherrer Institut

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E-mail: christina.daum@psi.ch

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May 2005

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