Cd-Te Solar PV Companies in Fray

How does that additional 72 MW of cadmium-telluride thin-film PV module-making

capacity planned by First Solar for its Perrysburg, OH, facilities stack up against the rest
of the CdTe competition's current production levels? According to recent data compiled
by NREL and presented at Intersolar North America/Semicon West, First's extra chunk of
factory output would exceed the total megawatt-nameplate of AVA Solar, PrimeStar,
Calyxo/Q-Cells, Antec, Avendi, and ASP combined. The same data show the CdTe Gang
of Six Followers projected to reach 280 MW by 2010--by which time First will have
passed the gigawatt mark.
One of those CdTe wannabe players, Calyxo, has apparently hit some bumps in its
manufacturing ramp, according to information revealed in Q-Cells' first-half 2008
financial report issued last week. The German company, better known for its crystallinesilicon solar cell prowess, owns 93% of Calyxo (bought from US-based Solar Fields a
few years ago, although the American unit still does R&D).
The CdTe concern makes up part of Q-Cells' overall thin-film technology platform that
also includes equity interest and ownership in associated companies working on copper
indium gallium (di)selenide (Solibro), micromorph silicon (Sontor), crystalline silicon on
glass (CSG), and a-Si on flexible plastic (VHF-Technologies/Flexcell).
Q-Cells said in its ad hoc announcement (still don't get what's ad hoc about such carefully
worded releases) that "with regard to the new technologies, a total production volume in
all thin-film subsidiaries of between 10 and 20 MWp is expected for 2008 (previously
[projected] between 25 and 50 MWp) due to the delayed production start-up, particularly
at Calyxo" [emphasis added]. The company noted in its most recent overview report that
the "optimization of [Calyxo's] first line" will continue "until the end of 2008," with the
"ramp-up of the next line (60 MWp) starting from mid-2009."
The same report shows the efficiency of CdTe cells manufactured using Calyxo's
atmospheric (as in nonvacuum) vapor deposition process still badly trail First Solar's
module numbers. Although the Q-Cells' quasi-unit has seen lab efficiencies around 16%,
its "current best own modules" aperture area figure is 6.5% and its short- to midterm
module target range is 7-10%, as long as "normal expected" yields, uptimes, throughputs,
and generally stable operating conditions prevail.
Calyxo figures it can break even with about 6% efficiencies, but what good is that if your
big, market-leading competitor can achieve at least that level of conversion prowess on
its worst factory-performance day? First Solar's chairman/CEO Michael Ahearn said in
the most recent conference call that the company's average module conversion
efficiencies were up to 10.7% for the quarter.

It doesn't take an Olympic gymnastics judge to see that 4.2% is a huge conversionefficiency gap to overcome for Calyxo--and food for thought for any other CdTe early
stager trying to get into the game.
Q-Cells capacity ramp plans for the next few years are aggressive on both its core cSi
business and its thin-film forays. By the end of 2010, the company says it will have more
than 2.5 GWp of total capacity, of which over 400 MW will come from the various TFPV
concerns--including at least 85 MW from Calyxo. But as long as there are delays in
qualifying the manufacturing process at its 25-MW pilot line, the likelihood of Calyxo
adding its first volume plant (60 MW) by the end of 2009 remains in doubt.
As for other CdTe followers, AVA Solar claims it will have its pilot line up and running
the second half of this year, with its volume production facility ready to go in 2009.
PrimeStar, flush with resources from its now-majority owner General Electric, hasn't
offered specifics of the company's production roadmap, other than to say it's in a "rapid
ramp." Other players, such as Antec and Avendi, have been missing in action of late.
So the question remains: which of the CdTe Gang of Followers will be the first to offer a
serious, production-worthy, commercial alternative to First Solar?