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Documenti di Cultura
Market Enterprise
Cap
Value
EUR b
EUR b
Telecom Italia (TI)
76.04
114.87
Deutsche Telekom (DT)
67.91
119.06
France Telecom (FTE)
54.41
100.94
British Telecom (BTY)
23.92
37.61
Swisscom (SCM)
18.00
18.79
Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN 15.99
23.61
Telekom Austria (TKA)
5.89
9.91
Average
Source:finance.yahoo.com - March 5, 2004
P/E
12.01
12.01
11.11
10.17
15.04
12.8
27.54
14.38
EV/Sales EV/EBITD
A
3.62
1.98
2.14
1.32
2.03
1.91
2.45
2.21
34.55
6.12
5.7
4.14
7.64
4.71
6.76
9.95
Beta
EV/MktCap
0.79
1.43
2.00
1.37
0.53
1.73
0.64
1.21
1.51
1.75
1.86
1.57
1.04
1.48
1.68
1.56
RF
MKT RISK P
Beta
Assets
0.52
0.82
1.08
0.87
0.51
1.17
0.38
0.76
4%
5%
7.82%
Assumptions
Growth rates
fix
mobile
intl
Depreciation
Income Statement
Sales
EBITDA
1%
1%
1%
0%
Cost of debt
Tax rate
Payout ratio
5%
34%
50%
2003
5,454
2004
5,509
2005
5,455
2006
5,510
2007
5,456
2008
5,511
Depreciations
Provisions
EBIT
Interest
Taxes
Minority interest
Net Income
1,109
1,113
28
2,250
787
0
1,463
27
208
154
1,074
1,120
1,124
28
2,273
787
0
1,486
26
496
156
808
1,131
1,135
29
2,295
787
0
1,508
26
504
157
821
1,143
1,147
29
2,318
787
0
1,531
26
512
159
835
1,154
1,158
29
2,341
787
0
1,554
26
520
160
848
1,166
1,170
29
2,365
787
0
1,578
26
528
162
862
1,074
808
821
835
848
862
154
156
157
159
160
162
787
0
733
1,282
485
797
440
787
0
0
1,750
787
963
404
78
-1,000
0
-1,482
-518
787
0
0
1,765
787
978
411
79
0
0
-489
489
787
0
0
1,780
787
993
417
79
0
0
-497
497
787
0
0
1,796
787
1,009
424
80
0
0
-504
504
787
0
0
1,811
787
1,024
431
81
0
0
-512
512
4,381
78
110
4,569
4,381
78
-408
4,051
4,381
78
81
4,540
4,381
78
577
5,036
4,381
78
1,082
5,541
4,381
78
1,594
6,053
2,548
446
1,050
525
4,569
1,952
524
1,050
525
4,051
2,362
602
1,050
525
4,540
2,780
682
1,050
525
5,036
3,204
762
1,050
525
5,541
3,635
843
1,050
525
6,053
Fix
Mobile
Intl
EBITDA
Minority interest
Depreciation
Provisions
WCR
Cash flow from operation
Capex
Free cash flow
Dividend
Dividends to minority
Equity
D Debt
Cash flow from financing
Change in cash
Balance sheet
Fixed Assets
WCR
Cash & ST invest.
Book equity
Minority interest
Provisions and pensions
Debt (interest bearing)
0
0
-440
=
+
FCF
DIV
Var Equity
Var Debt
Var Cash
100
100
0
0
0
100
50
0
-20
30
100
50
-50
0
0
-100
50
-150
-100
50
150
0
0
# shares
Earnings
RF
Mkt Risk Premiupm
Beta Assets
Cost of capital
400 m
808 m
4%
5%
0.76
7.800%
10,359
25.90
Payout
RORE
Div
g
Value
Price/share
50%
8%
404
4.00%
10,632
26.58
1.2164
Market Cap Enterprise P/E forw EV/Sales EV/EBITDA Beta
92.5
139.73
12.01
3.62
34.55
0.79
82.6
144.82
12.01
1.98
6.12
1.432
66.18
122.78
11.11
2.14
5.7
1.999
29.1
45.75
10.17
1.32
4.14
1.365
21.9
22.86
15.04
2.03
7.64
0.528
19.45
28.72
12.8
1.91
4.71
1.733
7.16
12.06
27.54
2.45
6.76
0.638
P/E
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Beta
12.01
12.01
11.11
10.17
15.04
12.80
27.54
14.38
3.62
1.98
2.14
1.32
2.03
1.91
2.45
2.21
34.55
6.12
5.7
4.14
7.64
4.71
6.76
9.95
0.79
1.43
2.00
1.37
0.53
1.73
0.64
1.21
EV/MktCap
1.51
1.75
1.86
1.57
1.04
1.48
1.68
EV/MktCap
1.51
1.75
1.86
1.57
1.04
1.48
1.68
1.56
Beta Asset
0.52
0.82
1.08
0.87
0.51
1.17
0.38
0.76
2001
2002
2003 Source
6422
1085
5337
3188
2075
625
5888
551
5337
5454
0
5454
3108
2181
626
5915
461
5454
F-3
F-3
F-3
p 52
p 55
p 57
Inter-segments
Revenues recurrent
5467
0
5467
3422
2077
606
6105
638
5467
EBITDA
Fixed line
Mobile
International
EBITDA recurrent
Non recurrent expenses
EBITDA
1136
853
37
2026
62
1964
1008
1006
6
2020
764
2341
1109
1113
28
2250
897
1353
p 52
p 55
p 57
829
859
787
EBIT
EBIT recurrent
EBIT
1197
1135
1161
1482
1463
566
Financial costs
Consolidation
26
25
25
12
1146
1084
1124
1445
1432
535
429
102
203
99
208
154
615
553
822
1143
1070
173
Revenues
Revenues total
Non recurrent revenues
Revenues recurrent
Fixed line
Mobile
International
Sum
p 52, 55, 57
33.2%
41.1%
6.1%
31.6%
48.5%
1.0%
39.6%
14.0%
F-3
27 F-3
4 F-3
400
401
402
1.5375 2.049875 2.661692
35.7%
51.0%
4.5%
38.9%
2001
5,127
1,230
808
7,165
2002
4,601
1,084
1,612
7,297
2003
4,381
1,518
110
6,009
Book equity
Minority interests
LT Interest bearing debt
Pensions
Provisions
Other LT debt
ST interest bearing debts
Other ST debts
2,630
205
827
1,252
195
54
474
1,528
7,165
2,978
293
547
1,545
209
61
78
1,586
7,297
2,548
446
371
840
210
49
154
1,391
6,009
Fixed Assets
WCR
Cash and ST investment
5,127
-352
808
5,583
4,601
-563
1,612
5,650
4,381
78
110
4,569
Book equity
Pensions
Provisions
Minority interests
Interest bearing debt
2,630
1,252
195
205
1,301
5,583
2,978
1,545
209
293
625
5,650
2,548
840
210
446
525
4,569
Fixed Assets
Current Assets (non cash)
Cash
2002
88
99
2003
153
154 in balance sheet
in balance sheet
2001
2002
2003
1687
1062
1030
0
62
1749
1085
764
741
0
897
1927
Variation WCR
Cash flow from operation
29
1658
-310
1372
733
297
-1104
710
-485
554
2082
-188
Dividend
D Capital
D Minority interest
D Debt
296
0
28
313
45
663
0
-11
-605
-1279
440
-325
0
-57
-822
599
601
-2
599
803
521
281
802
-1010
-764
-246
-1010
D cash
D ST investment
Number of shares
400,000,000
Cancellation of 2003
buyback
Shareholders
Belgian State
ADSB
Dexia
KBC
Sofina
Belgacom
Public
Total
200,000,001
177,619,040
3,750,000
3,750,000
2,500,000
12,380,950
0
399,999,991
9
399,932,160
67,840
187,619,040
50.00% 200,000,001
44.40% 177,619,040
0.94%
3,750,000
0.94%
3,750,000
0.63%
2,500,000
3.10%
0
0.00%
0
387,619,041
51.60%
45.82%
0.97%
0.97%
0.64%
0.00%
0.00%
Telecom Italia
Deutsche Telecom
France Telecom
British Telecom
Swisscom
KPN
Telekom Austria
Average
0%
Beta Equity EV/MktCap
0.79
1.51
1.43
1.75
2
1.86
1.37
1.57
0.53
1.04
1.73
1.48
0.64
1.68
1.21
D/E
0.51
0.75
0.86
0.57
0.04
0.48
0.68
BetaAsset
0.52
0.82
1.08
0.87
0.51
1.17
0.38
0.76
2.5
BetaEquity
TaxRate
1.5
0.5
0
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
EV/MktCap
1.6
1.4
1.5
EV/MktCap
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
Valuation
Risk-free interest rate
Market risk premium
Beta asset
rA
# shares
Earnings 2004
Payout
EPS 2004
Value as cash cow
g min
DPS 2004
Value as cash cow
g min + 1%
Value
5%
6%
0.87
10.22%
400 m
808 m
50%
2.02
19.77
5.11%
1.01
19.77
5.61%
21.91
Assumptions:
Risk-free interest rate
Market risk premium
Beta asset
rA
Long term growth rate
5%
6%
0.87
10.22%
3%
12,931
179
13,110
1,000
1,050
525
1,639
8,896.10
22.24
V
Share buy back
Pension & prov
Financial debt
Minority
Equity value
Price per share
13,450
1,000
1,050
525
1,681
9,193.60
22.98
34%
5%
6%
Sales
EBITDA
Earnings
2004
980
13,272
5,509
2,273
808
2005
995
13,633
Comparables
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
P/E
2006
1,011
14,016
2.35
5.69
11.02
Beta asset
2007
1,026
14,423
2008
1,041
Beta asset
rA
Long term growth rate
Leverage L=D/V
0.87
10.22%
3%
25%
WACC calculation
Using MM
rE
WACC traditional
9.35%
11.37%
9.35%
14,686
1000
1050
525
1,836
10,275.11
25.69
2004
980
15,079
2005
995
15,493
2006
1,011
15,932
2007
1,026
16,396
2008
1,041
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
3%
34.70
25.35
19.50
15.50
4%
43.07
29.78
22.18
17.26