Article Impact of Smart Grid Technologies On Peak Load IEA

2011
Impact of Smart Grid

Technologies on
Peak Load to 2050
International Energy Agency

Steve Heinen, David Elzinga,
Seul-Ki Kim and Yuichi Ikeda
WO R K I N G PA P E R
August
2011
Impact of Smart Grid

Technologies on
Peak Load to 2050
The views expressed in this working paper are those of

the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policy
of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Secretariat or of its
individual member countries. This paper is a work in progress,
designed to elicit comments and further debate; thus, comments
are welcome, directed to the author at: steve.heinen@iea.org

Steve Heinen, David Elzinga,
Seul-Ki Kim and Yuichi Ikeda
WO R K I N G PA P E R
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974.
Its primary mandate was and is two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member
countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative
research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member
countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among
its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports.
The Agencys aims include the following objectives:
Secure member countries access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular,
through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions.
Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection
in a global context particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute
to climate change.
Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of
energy data.
Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies
and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy
efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies.
Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and
dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international
organisations and other stakeholders.
OECD/IEA, 2011
9 rue de la Fdration
75739 Paris Cedex 15, France
www.iea.org
IEA member countries:

Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea (Republic of)
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
Please note that this publication

is subject to specific restrictions
that limit its use and distribution.
The terms and conditions are available
online at www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp
The European Commission

also participates in
the work of the IEA.
OECD/IEA2011
ImpactofSmartGridTechnologiesonPeakLoadto2050
TableofContents
Acknowledgments............................................................................................................................5
Summary...........................................................................................................................................6
Introduction......................................................................................................................................7
ScopeoftheAnalysis......................................................................................................................10
Peakloadasasystemdesignmetric.......................................................................................10
Scenarioplanningforsmartgriddeployment.........................................................................10
DevelopmentofPeakLoadReferenceCase..................................................................................12
Peakloadestimationapproach...............................................................................................12
Estimationprocedure......................................................................................................13
BaselineandBLUEMapScenariosfordemandto2050..................................................13
EstimationofregionalpeakloadfortheBaselineandBLUEMapCase.................................14
Correlationbetweenhistoricalannualpeakloadandgenerationdemand....................14
Considerationofsectorchangesinfuturedemand........................................................16
Regionalreferencecasepeakloadestimation................................................................18
QuantificationofSmartGridCases(SG0,SGMIN,SGMAX)................................................................19
Modellingapproach(casesandsystemboundaries)..............................................................19
Modeldescriptionandparameterassumptions.....................................................................20
AMIpenetrationrate.......................................................................................................20
Generationdemand.........................................................................................................22
EV/PHEVconsiderations..................................................................................................23
Demandresponseconsiderations...................................................................................26
Resultantpeakloadequation..........................................................................................27
Overviewofsmartgridcases...........................................................................................27
DiscussionofResults......................................................................................................................28
Overviewofpeakloadevolutionintheanalysedregions......................................................28
OECDEurope....................................................................................................................28
OECDNorthAmerica........................................................................................................29
OECDPacific.....................................................................................................................30
China................................................................................................................................31
Sensitivityanalysis...........................................................................................................32
Qualitativecomparisonofsmartgriddrivermetricsbetweenregions..................................32
BLUESGMINandBLUESGMAXcases...................................................................................34
Conclusions.....................................................................................................................................36
Acronymsandabbreviations.........................................................................................................37
References......................................................................................................................................38
Page|3
OECD/IEA2011
ListofFigures
Figure1Peakcoefficientindifferentcountries,19982009..........................................................12
Page|4 Figure2Generationdemand,excludingEVgenerationdemand,fortheBaseline
andBLUEMapScenarios.................................................................................................14
Figure3Peakcoefficientinfunctionofshareofresidentialandservicedemand........................16
Figure4OECDPACgenerationdemandbysector.........................................................................16
Figure5Peakcoefficientswithsectordemandchangesconsidered............................................17
Figure6PeakloadreferenceestimatesfortheBaselineandBLUEMapScenarios......................18
Figure7Smartgriddeploymentcasesmatrix................................................................................20
Figure8AMIpenetrationinfunctionofgrowthrate....................................................................21
Figure9EstimatedpeakloadevolutioninOECDEUR,20102050................................................28
Figure10EstimatedpeakloadevolutioninOECDNA,20102050................................................29
Figure11EstimatedpeakloadevolutioninOECDNA
withoutusingdemandresponse,20102050................................................................29
Figure12EstimatedpeakloadevolutioninOECDPAC,20102050..............................................30
Figure13EstimatedpeakloadevolutioninChina,20102050.....................................................31
Figure14SensitivityanalysisforOECDNABLUEMapSGMAXcase................................................32
Figure15SmartgriddriversintheBLUESGMINandBLUESGMAXcasesacross
allanalysedregionscomparedto2011.........................................................................35
ListofTables
Table1Compositionofanalysedregions......................................................................................11
Table2OECDEUR..........................................................................................................................15
Table3OECDNA............................................................................................................................15
Table4OECDPAC..........................................................................................................................15
Table5China..................................................................................................................................15
Table6Overviewofsmartmeterrolloutplans.............................................................................21
Table7Losscoefficients................................................................................................................22
Table8Dischargingpowerofthevehiclebattery.........................................................................24
Table9FractionofvehiclesconnectedduringpeakloadfEV.........................................................25
Table10FractionofresidentialandservicedemandtoalldemandsectorsfDR...........................26
Table11Summaryofthemodelledsmartgridscenarios.............................................................27
Table12Smartgriddrivermetricsforgraphicalrepresentation(%)............................................33
ListofBoxes
Box1EnergyTechnologyPerspectives(ETP)scenariodescriptions................................................7
Box2Characteristicsofsmartgrids.................................................................................................8
OECD/IEA2011
Acknowledgments
ThisworkingpaperwaspreparedbytheInternationalEnergyAgencyundertheguidanceofBo
Diczfalusy,DirectoroftheDirectorateofSustainableEnergyPolicy,andPeterTaylor,Headofthe
EnergyTechnologyPolicyDivision.SteveHeinenisleadauthor.TheothermainauthorsareDavid
Page|5
Elzinga,SeulKiKimandYuichiIkeda.
ManyIEAcolleaguesprovidedimportantcontributions,inparticularLewFulton,HiroyukiKaneko,
UweRemmeandTaliTrigg.
Theexternalvolunteerswhoreviewedtheworkingpaperhelpedconsiderablyinimprovingthe
quality of the analysis: Diana Bauer (United States Department of Energy), David Beauvais
(Canmet ENERGY), Russell Conklin (United States Department of Energy), Yves Gagnon
(Universit de Moncton), Saskia Jaarsma (KEMA), Bruno Meyer (Rseau de transport
dlectricit), Peter Vaessen (KEMA), Frits Verheij (KEMA) and Manuel Welsch (KTH Royal
InstituteofTechnology).LarryToddWilson(InstituteofElectricalandElectronicsEngineers)also
supportedthereviewingprocess.
The authors would also like to thank Kristine Douaud for editing the manuscript as well as the
IEAsCommunicationandPublicationOffice,especiallyMarilynSmith,JaneBarbire,Madeleine
Barry,CorinneHayworthandAngelaGosmann.
This working paper is a first IEA effort in an evolving modelling process of smart grids. All
questionsandcommentsareappreciatedandshouldbesentto:
SteveHeinen
IEAsecretariat
Tel+33140576682
Email:steve.heinen@iea.org
DavidElzinga
IEAsecretariat
Tel+33140576693
Email:david.elzinga@iea.org
OECD/IEA2011
Summary
Peakloaddefinesthegenerationtransmissionanddistributioncapacityofanelectricitysystem,
andalsoservesasimportantdesignmetricforcurrentandfutureelectricityinfrastructureneeds.
As electricity load changes throughout the day and the year, electricity systems (including
Page|6 generation,transmissionanddistribution)mustbeabletodeliverthemaximalloadatalltimes.
Inreality,theinfrastructureisthusunderutilisedduringnonpeaktimes.
Thisworkingpaperanalysestheevolutionofpeakloaddemandbetweennowand2050infour
keyregions:OECDEurope,OECDNorthAmerica,OECDPacificandChina.Demandforelectricity
isrisinginallanalysedregionsasadditionalelectricendusetechnologiesareadoptedinvarious
sectorssuchastransport,heatingandcooling,andcouldpotentiallyincreasepeakload
Smartgridtechnologiesshowstrongpotentialtooptimiseassetutilisationbyshiftingpeakload
to offpeak times, thereby decoupling electricity growth from peak load growth. This working
paperpresentsanongoingefforttodevelopapeakloadmodellingmethodologyandestimate
thepotentialofsmartgridtechnologiestoreduceit.
Usingascenarioplanningapproach, possibleprojectionsare madeforthefourcasesbasedon
twomainuncertainties:technologyandpolicysupport.TechnologyismodelledusingtheEnergy
TechnologyPerspectives2010(ETP2010)BaselineandBLUEMapScenarios(IEA,2010a).Smart
gridpolicysupportisassumedtobeeitherminimum(SGMIN)ormaximum(SGMAX).
The evolution of peak load is estimated for all cases by taking into account smart grid
technologies. At this stage, smart grid functionalities are limited to the integration of electric
vehicles and the deployment of demand response in the residential and service sectors. The
technologiesconsideredaregridtovehicle(G2V)andvehicletogrid(V2G)technologies,aswell
asadvancedmeteringinfrastructure.
TheresultsrevealthatintheBLUEMapSGMIN,casepeakloadwillincreaseuntil2050by28%in
OECDEUR,15%inOECDNA,25%inOECDPACandby200%inChinawhiledemandincreasesby
23%,25%,32%and152%.Assumingthesamedemandgrowth,theBLUESGMAXcaseshowsthat
smartgridscansubstantiallyoffsettheincreasesinpeakloadthedifferentregionsto13%,1%,
12% and 176%. These finding indicate that smart grids can considerably lower peak load and
therefore optimise the asset utilisation. Asset modernisation can therefore compensate
extensionprojectstomeetfuturedemandneeds.
OECD/IEA2011
Introduction
Smartgridsareakeysuiteoftechnologiestodealwithpressingcurrentandfutureneedsinthe
electricitysectorandtoenabletheeffectiveadoptionoflowcarbonenergytechnologiessuchas
variablerenewableenergiesandelectricvehicles.
TheIEAhasidentifiedfivesmartgridspecificdriversintheelectricitysector:
demandincrease
penetrationofelectricvehicles(EVs)andpluginhybridvehicles(PHEVs)
deploymentofvariablerenewableenergysources
peakloadincrease
ageinginfrastructure
The first three drivers have been examined in the Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 (ETP
2010) Baseline and BLUE Map Scenarios (IEA, 2010a), but these scenarios have not taken into
considerationtheimpactsofsmartgridtechnologiesontheelectricitysysteminfrastructure.
Box1EnergyTechnologyPerspectives(ETP)scenariodescriptions
TheETPBLUEMapScenarioassumesthatglobalenergyrelatedcarbondioxide(CO)emissionsare
reducedtohalftheircurrentlevelsby2050.Thisscenarioexamineswaysinwhichtheintroductionof
existingandnewlowcarbontechnologiesmightachievethisatleastcost,whilealsobringingenergy
securitybenefitsintermsofreduceddependenceonoilandgas,andhealthbenefitsasairpollutant
emissions are reduced. The BLUE Map Scenario is consistent with a longterm global rise in
temperatureof2Cto3C,butonlyifthereductioninenergyrelatedCO2emissionsiscombinedwith
deepcutsinothergreenhousegas(GHG)emissions.TheBaselineScenarioconsidersthebusinessas
usual case, not reducing emission levels to any predetermined goal by 2050. The BLUE Map and
BaselineScenariosarebasedonthesamemacroeconomicassumptions.
According to results from ETP 2010, worldwide electricity demand increases by 151% in the
Baseline Scenario and 117% in the BLUE Map Scenario between 2007 and 2050. The demand
increaseisnotequallyspreadacrossregionsandthereforerequirementsforgridmodernisation
andextensionwillvarybetweenareaswithlowandhighgrowth.OECDmembercountriesexhibit
low growth in demand, ranging from 30% to 37%, but have expansive and ageing networks
where the modernisation and expansion is constrained by highly complex regulatory regimes.
NonOECDcountriesorregionssuchasChina,IndiaandAfrica,andtheMiddleEastshowgreater
growth,rangingfrom104%to509%.Thepriorityintheseregionsismorefocusedonbuildingup
anewelectricitysysteminfrastructure,whichisalreadybeingundertakeninsomeregions.
Continued investment is required in all electricity systems in order to maintain reliability and
powerquality,buttheregionaldifferencesmustbetakenintoaccount.Indevelopingcountries
andemergingeconomies,theneedstoreducecommercialandtechnicallossesandtoincrease
rural electrification are often of greater importance in addition to the high growth rates in
demand. In other regions largescale deployment of variable renewable energies (wind,
concentrated solar power and solar photovoltaics) is occurring in order to reduce the
dependenceonfossilfuelsandreducecarbonemissions.Systemoperatorsareconfrontedwith
increasing difficulties of balancing supply and demand as variable generation assets increase
uncertaintyandcomplexityofoperation.Smartgridtechnologiesenablehigherpenetrationrates
of variable renewable energy sources (VRE) by increasing system flexibility through advanced
Page|7
OECD/IEA2011
generation and demandside management. Further, improved management and monitoring

through smart grids can maximise the utilisation of the existing infrastructure and address
existingissueswithinpowersystems.
Inadditiontothechangesinelectricitygeneration,theETP2010BLUEMapScenarioestimated
that the share of electricity used by the transportation sector will increase to 11% of overall
Page|8 demandby2050,whileitismarginaltoday.Thisincludesallmodesoftransport,butthemajor
reason for this increased electrification is the adoption of electric and plugin hybrid electric
vehicles (EVs and PHEVs). This additional demand must be managed in a strategic fashion by
smart grids to minimise the impact on peak load. Over the long term, smart grids also enable
electric vehicles to act as energy storage devices and support the grid operation. The use of
electricity for heating and cooling is also expected to increase with the deployment of new
technologiessuchasheatpumps.
ThisreportanalysestheimpactofthechangesdescribedinETP2010ontheelectricitysystem,
andtheroleofsmartgrids.Asafirststep,peakdemandwillbemodelledinthecontextofthe
ETP 2010 Baseline and BLUE Map Scenarios. In this case, the impact of variable renewable
energieswillnotbeconsidered,butwillbeexaminedinsubsequentanalyses.Thisworkingpaper
analyses the evolution of peak load in four key regions: OECD Europe, OECD North America,
OCEDPacificandChina.
Annualpeakloadisdefinedinthispaperasthemaximumloadofthesystemthatoccurswithina
oneyear period. The load on the electricity system changes over the course of the day and
through the year according to electricity consumption. Peak load has been considered for this
analysis because the generation and network capacity are dimensioned to meet the maximum
load requirement, plus reserves, during a year. Peak load is increasing at a faster rate than
averagedemand,resultinginincreasedinfrastructureinvestmentincomparisontotheamount
ofelectricitybeingconsumedonanannualbasis.Theincreaseduseofelectricdevices(suchas
EVs/PHEVs)couldintensifyloadcurvepeaking.
Smartgridscanbeakeyenableroftechnologiestoshift,tostoreortoshapeelectricitydemand
accordingtotheavailablecapacityofproduction,transmissionanddistributionassets.Thus,they
canprovidesolutionstoreduceexistingandfuturepeakdemandlevels.Thisanalysiswillexplore
thepotentialbenefitsofsmartgridsinvariedregionalcontexts.
Box2Characteristicsofsmartgrids
The worlds electricity systems face a number of challenges, including ageing infrastructure,
continued growth in demand, the integration of increasing numbers of variable renewable energy
sources and electric vehicles, and the need to improve the security of supply and reduce CO2
emissions. Smart grid technologies offer ways not just to meet these challenges, but to do so in a
moreaffordableandmoresustainablemanner.
Smartgridscharacteristically
enableinformedparticipationbycustomers
accommodateallgenerationandstorageoptions(includingVRE)
enablenewproducts,servicesandmarkets(includingDR,EVs)
providethepowerqualityfortherangeofneeds
optimiseassetutilisationandoperatingefficiency
provideresiliencytodisturbances,attacksandnaturaldisasters
Source:IEA,2011.
OECD/IEA2011
The IEA Smart Grid Technology Roadmap,1 released in April 2011, provides a complete
descriptionofsmartgridtechnologyandpolicy.Theroadmapstressestheneedformoreregional
analysis of electricity systems. There is no onesizefitsall solution to address the challenges in
the electricity sector, and priorities differ among regions. Other related IEA efforts have
estimated the prospects for largescale storage in decarbonised power grids (IEA, 2009b) and
modelled load shifting using electric vehicles in a smart grid environment (IEA, 2010b). This Page|9
workingpaperpresentsthemethodologychosentomodeltheannualpeakloaddevelopmentto
2050intheIEASmartGridTechnologyRoadmap.
Section 2 introduces the scope of the problem. A reference case for peak load is developed in
Section 3, and several smart grid deployment cases and the impact on peak load in section 4.
Section5summarisesthemainresultsfromtheanalysis,whilesection6drawssomeconclusions.
TheIEASmartGridsTechnologyRoadmapisavailableat:www.iea.org/papers/2011/smartgrids_roadmap.pdf.
OECD/IEA2011
ScopeoftheAnalysis
Peakloadasasystemdesignmetric
Page|10
The evolution of peak load can be considered an important system design metric for grid
operators and planners. The scope of this study is limited to peak load, but in preparation for
futurework,otherdriverswillbepartiallydiscussed.
Overall electricity demand and the daily schedules of electricity usage are currently major
influencesonpeakload.Inthefuture,peakloadwillbeinfluencedbyneworincreaseddemands
suchasthepenetrationofcleanenergytechnologies,suchaselectricvehiclesandpluginhybrid
electricvehicles(EVs/PHEVs)andtheincreaseduseofelectricityforheatingandcoolingthrough
technologies such as heat pumps. A high penetration of EVs/PHEVs will affect the peak load
significantly if the charging is not controlled. In fact many EV/PHEV users might charge their
EVs/PHEVs simultaneously in the early evening when peak system demand already exists, and
further stress the grid capacity. Scheduled charging, however, can shift some load from the
evening to the early morning and thus flatten the load curve. In a more advanced deployment
stage, EVs/PHEVs could provide socalled vehicletogrid (V2G) services and could be used as
electricstoragetoreducepeakgenerationcapacitybydischargingelectricityfromthebatteryto
thegrid.
Smart grid technology, through the use of advanced monitoring and control equipment, could
reduce peak demand and thus prolong and optimise use of the existing infrastructure.
Investmentsingeneration,transmissionanddistributionmightbedeferredthroughtheadoption
of smart grids, and smart grid investment might be partially facilitated by using synergies
betweengridrenewalandmodernisation.
Scenarioplanningforsmartgriddeployment
Scenario planning is a method of making decisions under high uncertainty by developing
plausible future scenarios (Schoemaker, 1995). In the preparation of this study and the IEA
Technology Roadmap: Smart Grids, scenario planning was adopted to develop deployment
scenariosforsmartgrids.Thefollowingsimplifiedscenarioplanningmethodwasusedtodevelop
areferencecaseandseveralanalysiscases,althoughmanyvariationsexist:
1. Setthescopeandtimehorizonoftheanalysis.
2. Decideondriversforthechangeanddefinevariousassumptions.
3. Identifyscenariosbasedonthereferencecases.
4. Developquantitativemodels.
In the following, the process to develop the smart grid deployment cases is explained step by
step.Brainstormingplaysanessentialroleinalltheabovestepsexceptthelast.
First,thescopeandtimehorizonoftheanalysisarefixedinordertodeveloptheframeworkof
theanalysis.Theanalysisfocusesonadeploymentcaseforsmartgridsinfourregions:thethree
regionsformedbymembercountriesoftheOECD(OECDEurope,OECDNorthAmericaandOECD
Pacific)andChina.Table1presentsthecompositionoftheanalysedregions,whichisconsistent
withpreviousIEAstudies.Thetimehorizon,i.e.theperiodoftheanalysis2010to2050was
adaptedtoETP2010.
OECD/IEA2011
Table1Compositionofanalysedregions
Region
Country
China
China
OECD EUR
Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland,
Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, Turkey, UK
OECD NA
Canada, Mexico and United States
OECD PAC
Australia, Japan, Korea, New Zealand
In the second step, the drivers for change in the electricity system are set and various
assumptionsareelaborated.Fivedriversaredefined:demandincrease,peakdemandincrease,
increased use of VRE, integration of EVs/PHEVs, and ageing infrastructure. These drivers are
interlinkedbutrequiredifferentactions.Peakloadischosenasakeymetricsinceitisnotheavily
analysedintheETP2010scenariosandisstronglylinkedtotheotherfourdrivers.
Simplificationsaremadeanddeploymentcasesaredevelopedbasedonasinglereferencecase.
Thereferencecasefordemandincreases,peakdemandandintegrationofEVs/PHEVsinallfour
regions is derived from ETP 2010 Baseline and BLUE Map Scenarios. The reference case shows
the basic trends without smart grid technologies and is presented in detail in the section
EstimationofregionalpeakloadfortheBaselineandBLUEMapScenarios.
A quantitative model is developed by focusing on peak load as a metric for grid operation and
analysing the interrelated drivers described above. Although the methodology of system
dynamicsiswidelyusedinordertoanalysethedynamicalbehaviourofthesystem(Ford,1997),
the IEA developed the simpler static model as a firstcut analysis. The quantitative model is
presentedindetailinthesectionQuantificationofsmartgridcases(SG0,SGMIN,SGMAX).
Page|11
OECD/IEA2011
DevelopmentofPeakLoadReferenceCase
Thissectionpresentsthepeakloadreferencecaseforeachofthefourregionsanalysed,based
on the Baseline and BLUE Map Scenarios. The reference case is intended to be used to
demonstrate the evolution of the electricity system that does not consider smart grid
Page|12 deployment. The reference case for each region will then be used in the following section to
examinethechangeinpeakloadduetoseveralsmartgridscasesupto2050.
Peakloadestimationapproach
A basic concept of the analysis is that the annual peak load in a country or region tends to be
correlatedwithitsannualgenerationdemand.AnnualpeakloadPL(GW)isdefinedhereasthe
maximumloadofthesystemthatoccurswithinaperiodofoneyear.Itshouldbenotedthatthe
annualpeakloadrepresentsthehighestloadvaluewhichismarkedatonepointwithinayear
and is not a function of time as opposed to power load in daily load curves. Electric power
systems,whichcomprisegenerationplants,transmissionanddistributionnetworks,aredesigned
onthebasisoftheirabilitytosustainthepeakloadandcontingencyreserves.
Inthisworkingpaper,annualaverageloadLAVEisdefinedastheaverageelectricpowerloadina
countryorregionoveraoneyearperiod.It canbe obtainedby dividing the annualgeneration
demandDGENbythetotalhoursofayear,i.e.8760hours:
1000
8760
ThepeakcoefficientCPLisdefinedasaratio2ofannualpeakloadtoannualaverageloadandisan
indicationfortheflatnessoftheloadcurve.
Historical peak coefficients calculated from historical statistical data of annual peak load and
annualaverageloadinseveralcountriesshowaconstanttrend(Figure1).
Figure1Peakcoefficientindifferentcountries,19982009
1.80
1.70
UnitedStates
1.60
Mexico
1.50
Australia
1.40
Japan
1.30
India
1.20
UnitedKingdom
1.10
France
1.00
Poland
Thiscoefficientiscorrelatedwiththeutilisationfactorusedinpowersystemplanning.UF=1/CPL.
OECD/IEA2011
Figure 1 shows CPL ranging from 1.2 to 1.7. These values are coherent with utilisation factors
measuredbypowersystemsoperator,from59%3inpowersystemspeakingwithairconditioning
to86%inpowersystempeakingwithairconditioningandwithalargeindustrialbaseload.Itis
noteworthythatthisfiguredoesnotreflectsomewinterpeakingpowersystems,forexamplein
Canada(i.e.Quebec,Manitoba,NewBrunswick)andNorway,wherehighpenetrationofelectric
baseboardheatingcausesaCPLfactorof2(utilisationfactorofassetsofonly50%).
Page|13
Sector changes in future demand are expected to alter the peak coefficients of regions. In
general, residential and service sector demand fluctuates more over the course of the day and
between seasons than industrial sector demand. Secondly, contractual arrangements with
industrialsectorsareoftenputinplacetocurtailtheirdemandincircumstanceswherethegrid
needstoreducepeakdemand.Therefore,agrowingfractionofresidentialandservicedemandis
expected to increase the peak coefficient, as the intraday demand profile amplifies its peak
behaviour.Thisapproachconsiderssuchpatternchangesinsectordemand.
Estimationprocedure
Foreachregion:
1. Thepeakcoefficientbetweenannualpeakloadandannualaverageloadfromhistoricaldata
isdetermined.
2. ThepeakcoefficientisextrapolatedbyconsideringfuturesectordemandchangesintheETP
2010BaselineandBLUEMapScenarios.
3. The annual average load is determined from the generation demand projections of the ETP
2010BaselineandBLUEMapScenarios.
4. The peak load reference case is derived up to 2050 by multiplying the regional peak
coefficientandannualaverageloadprojection.
BaselineandBLUEMapScenariosfordemandto2050
ElectricitygenerationdatafromETP2010BaselineandBLUEMapScenarioshavebeenusedfor
estimatingpeakload.Worldwideelectricitydemandisexpectedtomorethandoubleby2050.In
theBaselineScenario,thereisabroadlycommensurateincreaseinelectricitydemandacrossall
sectors.ElectricitydemandintheBLUEMapScenariois13%lowerthanintheBaselineScenario
owingtoincreasedefficiencyintheendusesectors.Someoftheincreasedefficiencyinindustry
andbuildingsis,however,offsetbyhigherdemandforelectricityforadditionaluses,suchasheat
pumps and EVs/PHEVs. The ETP2010 figures for the year 2010 are calibrated in this study with
theWorldEnergyOutlook2010CurrentPolicyScenario(IEA,2010c).
TheimpactofEVdemandistreatedseparatelyinthesectionQuantificationofSmartGridCases
(SG0, SGMIN, SGMAX), and EV demand is subtracted from future generation demand in the
developmentofthisreferencecaseforbothBaselineandBLUEMapScenariosinordertoavoid
doublecounting.Figure2presentstheregionalgenerationdemandexcludingEVgenerationfor
theBaselineandBLUEMapScenarios.
1/1.7=0.59or59%|1/1.2=0.83or83%.
OECD/IEA2011
Figure2Generationdemand,excludingEVgenerationdemand,fortheBaselineandBLUEMapScenarios
Baseline
OECDNA
OECDPAC
BLUEMap
OECDEU
China
OECDNA
OECDPAC
14000
14000
12000
12000
10000
10000
8000
8000
6000
6000
4000
4000
OECDEU
China
(TWh)
Page|14
2000
0
2000
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
EstimationofregionalpeakloadfortheBaseline
andBLUEMapCase
Correlationbetweenhistoricalannualpeakloadandgenerationdemand
Peakloadcoefficientsareestablishedfromhistoricaldatasourcesforthefourregionsanalysed:
OECD NA,4 OECD EUR,5 OECD PAC6 and China.7 For the analytical approach of the paper, it is
assumedthatthepeakloadswithineveryanalysedregioncoincidedespiteageographicalspan
though different time zones and climates. Future projections and historical profiles of annual
peak load and generation demand are considered at the supply side. Transmission and
distribution losses are included in those historical values and are consequently higher than the
demandsidevalues.
For OECD NA and OECD PAC, data covering a tenyear period are used to obtain the historical
peakloadcoefficientfortheregions.Asdataareonlyavailableupto2008,peakloadcoefficients
foryears2009and2010areestimatedasaveragevaluesoverthelatest10years.ForOECDNA,
dataareonlyavailablefrom1987to1996andareusedforCanada.ForOECDEUR,thetotalpeak
anddemand upto2010 isavailable.ForChina,historicalpeakloaddataarenotavailable. The
peak coefficient is considered as an average of OECD Pacific and India.8 Thus, the following
presentshowthevariousvariablesweregathered.
Totalpeakload(GW)=sumofannualpeakloadofallcountriesinaregion
Totaldemand(TWh)=sumofannualgenerationofallcountriesinaregion
Source:EIAstatisticsforUS,IEAstatisticsforMexicoandCanadadata.
Source:Eurelectric2008PowerStatistics.
6
Source:IEAStatistics.
7
Source:IEAStatisticsforhistoricalgenerationdemand,nodataavailableforhistoricalpeakload.
8
Source:IEAstatisticsofhistoricalgenerationdemand,17thElectricPowerSurveyofIndiaforpeakload.
5
OECD/IEA2011
Annualaverageload(GW)=Totaldemand(TWh)10008760(h)
Peakcoefficient=totalpeakloadannualaverageload
Table2OECDEUR
Total peak (GW)
Total demand (TWh)
1980
1990
2000
2005
2006
2010
333
432
505
530
473
605
1 915
2 526
3 131
3 218
2 897
3 728
Average load (GW)
219
288
357
367
331
426
Peak load coefficient
1.53
1.50
1.41
1.44
1.43
1.42
Table3OECDNA
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
756
785
781
805
804
805
864
906
882
858
4 307
4 452
4 403
4 522
4 551
4 657
4 773
4 797
4 908
4 888
Average load (GW)
492
508
503
516
520
532
545
548
560
558
1.54
1.55
1.55
1.56
1.55
1.51
1.59
1.65
1.57
1.54
Total peak (GW)

Total demand (TWh)
*(year):ForCanada,onlydatafrom1987to1996wereavailable.
Table4OECDPAC
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
244
253
266
266
256
268
276
279
287
288
1 434
1 512
1 525
1 571
1 572
1 636
1 685
1 708
1 761
1 738
Average load (GW)
164
173
174
179
179
187
192
195
201
198
1.49
1.47
1.53
1.48
1.42
1.43
1.43
1.43
1.43
1.45
Total peak (GW)

Total demand (TWh)
Table5China
2009
2010
1.41
1.41
Considerationofsectorchangesinfuturedemand
In order to quantify influence of sector demand changes on peak coefficient, this paper makes
thefollowingassumptions:9
1. Peakcoefficientofresidentialandservicesectordemandis2.0.
2. Peakcoefficientofindustry,transformationandotherssectordemandis1.0.
3. Theimpactoftransportationismodelledseparatelyinthesmartgridscenariossection.
TheseassumptionsweredevelopedbycomparingpeakcoefficientsofJapanandAustraliainFigure1and2007sharesofthe
residentialandservicedemandinFigure4.
Page|15
OECD/IEA2011
Figure3illustratestheinfluenceofthecompositionoftheendusesectoronthepeakcoefficient.
The peak coefficient is determined by the percentage share of residential and service sector
demand. Accordingly, the assumptions indicate that a 10% increase in the share of residential
andservicedemandinaregionwillbringaboutanincreaseof0.1inpeakcoefficient;conversely,
adecreaseof10%willcauseadecreaseof0.1.
Page|16
Figure3Peakcoefficientinfunctionofshareofresidentialandservicedemand
RegionalsectordemandchangesareobtainedfromETP2010.InOECDPAC,theresidentialand
service sector accounted for 57% of total generation demand in 2007. It is increasing in the
Baseline Scenario to 59% by 2030 and decreasing to 55% by 2050, whereas in the BLUE Map
Scenarioitisdecreasingto56%by2030andfurtherto44%by2050(Figure4).Suchchangesin
sector demand contribute to reduce the peak coefficient in the BLUE Map Scenario, indicating
thatdemandprofileswillpeakless.Onthecontrary,intheBaselineScenariothepeakcoefficient
doesnotshowconsiderablechangeandthepeakloadbehaviourofthedemandpatternswillnot
significantly improve (Figure 5). Similar comparisons were made for OECD NA, OECD EUR and
China.
Figure4OECDPACgenerationdemandbysector
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Other
Services
Residential
Transport
Industry
Transformation
2007
2030
2050
2007
2030
Baseline
BLUEMap
2050
OECD/IEA2011
Figure5Peakcoefficientswithsectordemandchangesconsidered
OECDEUR
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
Baseline
BLUEMap
1.3
OECDNA
1.7
Page|17
Baseline
1.3
BLUEMap
1.2
1.2
2010
2020
2030
2040
OECDPAC
1.7
2010
2050
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
Baseline
2030
2050
Baseline
BLUEMap
1.3
BLUEMap
1.2
2040
China
1.7
1.6
1.3
2020
1.2
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Regionalreferencecasepeakloadestimation
Annual average load of each region was calculated from generation demand projections of
ETP2010 for the Baseline and BLUE Map Scenarios (Figure 2). Each regions peak load to 2050
was estimated on a yearly basis by multiplying the peak coefficient of each region with the
annualaverageload.Inotherwords,peakloadcurvesinFigure6weredeterminedbyusingthe
average load obtained from Figure 2 and the peak coefficients of Figure 5.10 In the BLUE Map
Scenario,peakloadincreasesataslowerratethanintheBaselineScenario,sincethechanging
patternofsectordemandwillgraduallyreducethepeakcoefficient.
10
ItshouldbeagainnotedthatthecontributionofEVs/PHEVshavenotbeenconsideredinthesepeakloadestimates,
asEV/PHEVdemandhasbeenexcludedfromgenerationdemandprojections.
OECD/IEA2011
Figure6PeakloadreferenceestimatesfortheBaselineandBLUEMapScenarios
OECDNA
OECDPAC
2500
2500
2000
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
500
500
(GW)
(GW)
Page|18
OECDEU
CHINA
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
OECDEU
OECDPAC
CHINA
0
2010
OECDNA
2020
2030
2040
2050
OECD/IEA2011
QuantificationofSmartGridCases
(SG0,SGMIN,SGMAX)
Modellingapproach(casesandsystemboundaries)
Thereferencecasethathasbeenoutlinedintheprevioussectiondoesnotconsidertheimpacts
of smart grid technology deployment. Future scenarios must especially take into account the
technological evolutions in the electricity sector and adapt the reference case accordingly. This
sectionpresentsthemodellingapproachusedtodevelopthesmartgridcases.
Theobjectiveistoillustratetheevolutionofpeakloadbetween2010and2050andtomodelthe
interactionsofthedifferentdemandsidedriversonpeakloadinordertodemonstratetheneed
for,andpotentialof,smartgridtechnologies.Therationaleforthisapproachisasfollows:
Peak demand determines the operational capacity of infrastructure at the generation,
transmissionanddistributionlevels,bothtechnicallyandfinancially.Operationofthenetwork
mustalwaysbalancegenerationanddemandwithinthecapacityoftheoverallnetwork.Fora
systemoperatorandplanner,peakloadisconsequentlyacriticaldesignmetric.
Peakdemandanalysisassessesoptimisationpotentialsforsystemoperation.
TheIEAsGridIntegrationofVariableRenewables11projectcouldbeconsideredinfuturework
toquantifytheimpactsofsmartgridsonvariablegenerationdeployment.
Inordertodevelopsimplifiedbutrealisticandmeaningfulscenarios,thisanalysisbuildsbasedon
twomainuncertainties:technologyandpolicy.TheETP2010BaselineandBLUEMapScenarios
forecast two potential paths for major technology evolutions until 2050. The Baseline Scenario
assumes that no new energy and climate policies are introduced. The BLUE Map Scenario uses
existing and new lowcarbon technologies to cut CO2 emissions by half their current levels by
2050andatleastcost.TheETPscenariosincludesocioeconomicfactorssuchaspopulationand
wealthgrowth.Smartgridsareconsideredtobeakeyenablertoachievethetargetsdefinedby
theBLUEMapScenario,butarenotconsideredintheETP2010analysis.
Inordertoincentivisetheintroductionofsmartgridtechnologies,policiesmustbedevelopedto
supportbothsmartgridtechnologydevelopmentandtorevisethecurrentregulationandmarket
organisation needed for smart grid deployment. It is in this context that the quantification of
smartgridcasesiscarriedout.
A scenario without any smart grid support and no smart grid deployed, SG0, is considered as a
reference case to fully demonstrate the need for smart grids in the electricity system. The
smarteningofthegridisanevolvingprocessandnotaonetimeevent(IEA,2011);thequestion
isnotwhetheritwillhappen,butwhenandtowhichextent.Twopolicysupportscenarioshave
beendevelopedtoadoptsmartgrids:ataminimumlevel,SGMIN,andatamaximumlevel,SGMAX.
Bycombiningallvariationsfromtheseuncertainties,fourscenarioscanbederived(Figure7).
11
The IEA GIVAR project aims to establish a flexibility assessment method for variable renewable energy sources; see
HarnessingVariableRenewablesAGuidetotheBalancingChallenge,May2011.
Page|19
OECD/IEA2011
Figure7Smartgriddeploymentcasesmatrix
Page|20
Source:IEA,2011.
Modeldescriptionandparameterassumptions
The goal of the modelling is to capture the main driving forces and interactions within the
electricitysysteminordertoquantifytheimpactonpeakloadPL(GW)ofbothcleanenergyand
smartgridtechnologiesandofpolicysupport.Inthisanalysis,themodellingisgovernedbythree
maindrivers:
Generationdemand
NumberofEVs/PHEVs
Demandresponseenabledbysmartgriddeployment
The parameters in this mathematical description are estimated using empirical values and are
presented in the following paragraphs. All the coefficients are assumed to be identical
throughouttheregionsofinterestifnotstatedotherwise.
AMIpenetrationrate
Theautomatedmeteringinfrastructure(AMI)describesinthispaperthecapabilityofthesystem
toactivelymanagethedemandside.TheAMIpenetration(%)representstheshareofendusers
connectedtotheelectricitygridthroughsmartmeters.Thisequipmentenablesdynamicpricing
ofelectricitybymeasuringtheconsumptioninhourlyorsmallerintervals.Thisdevicecouldalso
communicate with inhome display within the customer premises and display realtime
consumption and price of the electricity. Smart meters without dynamic electricity rates,
however,providenoincentivetomanagepeak.Thisstudyassumesthatdynamicpricingwillbe
adoptedfollowingtheinstallationofsmartmetersandAMI.
Inordertoevaluatethepotentialimpactonpeakdemand,theshareofsmartmetersinstalledis
introducedasanauxiliaryvariabletomeasurethedeploymentofAMI.
Aggressive smart meter adoption programmes are being launched throughout all analysed
regions. The implementation of smart meters can be assumed to follow the shape of a logistic
curve with exponential growth initially, followed by a slowing growth and finally reaching
maturityasmosthouseholdsareequippedwithsmartmeters.Thus,deploymentofAMIcanbe
representedbythefollowingequations:
OECD/IEA2011
r STEP TDR
TL
Thecoefficientristhegrowthrate.ThestepfunctionSTEPisassumedtotriggeratafixedtime
interval (TLag) before the moment at which demand response (TDR) is in operation, with TLag
assumedtobefiveyears.TheSTEPfunctionintheabovediscussionisdefinedas:
Page|21
0
1
Most governments of the regions analysed have recently launched smart meter deployment
programmes(Table6).
Table6Overviewofsmartmeterrolloutplans
Regions
Countries
OECD EUR
Italy
Smart meter projections
100% today
Finland
80% by 2014
United Kingdom
France
Ireland
95% by 2016
100% by 2017
European Union
OECD NA
United States
Canada
OECD PAC
100% by 2019
80% by 2020
40 million33% by 2015
Ontario: 100% by 2010
British Columbia: 100% by 2012
H,I
Australia
100% by 2015
Japan
Korea
100% by 2020
100% by 2020
China
100% by 2020/2025
Note:Ifnosourceisgiven,thenumbersareunofficialannouncements.
Sources:(A)ENEL(n.d.);(B)MinistryofTradeandIndustry,Finland,2009;(C)DepartmentofEnergyandClimateChange,UK,2011;
(D) Ministry of Ecology and Energy, France, 2010; (E) Commission for Energy Regulation, Ireland, 2011; (F) European Commission,
2009;(G)Ernst&Young(n.d.);(H)MinistryofEnergy,Ontario(n.d.);(I)BCHydro,2011;(J)Budde,2010;(K)MKE,2010.
Figure8AMIpenetrationinfunctionofgrowthrate
1
AMIpenetrationrate(/)
0.9
0.8
0.7
r=0.5
0.6
r=0.6
0.5
r=0.7
0.4
r=0.8
0.3
r=0.9
0.2
0.1
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Note:risthegrowthrateofthelogisticcurve.
OECD/IEA2011
AccordingtoTable6,smartmetersshouldbeinstalleduniversallyinmostcountriesinthefirst
halfofthe2020s.Accordingly,agrowthraterof0.7waschosenfromFigure8.
Generationdemand
Page|22
Generation demand (DGEN = (TWh)) indicates electricity consumption as estimated by the

ETP2010 projections. These ETP 2010 scenarios consider energyefficiency improvements that
are therefore not influenced by smart grids deployed in this model. Demand response
programmesarenotexpectedtoreducedemandbutsimplytoshiftconsumptionfrompeakto
off peak time. Smart grids can reduce generation demand by reducing T&D losses though
advanced control and monitoring tools. Hence the ETP numbers are adjusted by an efficiency
coefficientasfollows:
,
ThispaperassumesthatallregionswillreduceT&DlossestotodaysbestpracticevalueLBESTif
smartgridtechnologiesaresuccessfullyimplementedalongthevaluechain.AccordingtotheIEA
energy balances, grid losses represent 7% of generation demand in OECD EUR, OECD NA and
China,butonly5%inOECDPAC.OECDPACisthereforeusedasLBEST.Astheremaininglossesare
mainlyduetophysicallossesintheconductivematerial,thepotentialofsmartgridstoreduce
thoselossesislimited.AllanalysedregionshaveannouncedambitiousT&Dmodernisationplans;
thefirstlossreductionsareexpectedasearlyas2015.Thelossreductionscanonlybeachievedif
thenecessaryequipmenthasbeeninstalled.Theselossreductionsareanongoingprocessthat
ismodelledbyusingtheAMIpenetrationratewherethesharesofAMIareusedasametricfor
smartgridpenetrationingeneral:
,
AMI(t)
5%
Table7Losscoefficients
Coefficient
Value
LBEST
0.05 (OECD PAC)
LETP
0.07 (rest of OECD and China)
EV/PHEVconsiderations
EVs/PHEVsarepoweredbyanelectricbatterythatmustbechargedfromthegrid,referredtoas
gridtovehicle(G2V).Ifconnectedduringpeakhoursandiftheaccesstothegridisnotmanaged
inanappropriatemanner,EVs/PHEVswillincreasepeakload.EVs/PHEVshoweveralsohavethe
potentialtoactasgridstoragedevicesandfeedelectricitybackintothegridatpeakhours.This
function is referred to as vehicletogrid (V2G) and relies on a smart grid that enables greater
participationofdemandsideforbalancing,peakreductionofcontingencyactions.12Hence,the
actual potential of storage available from EVs/PHEVs in this model depends on smart grid
implementation, which is in turn determined by the share of EVs/PHEVs in combination with
advancedmeters(AMI)andtimeofusepricing.
ThenumberofEVs/PHEVs(NEV/PHEV=(#))determinesthetotalstressonthegridresultingfromall
individual vehicle load. It is assumed that no other factor will interact with the number of
EVs/PHEVsdeployedandthattheETP2010scenariosforEVs/PHEVsarenotinfluencedbysmart
12
Otherstorageoptionsarenotconsideredinthisanalysisatthistime.
OECD/IEA2011
gridpolicysupport.ETP2010projectionsshowEVs/PHEVdeploymentintheBLUEMapScenario
onlyandnotintheBaselineScenario.Theseambitiousprojectionsexpectaround100millionEVs
andPHEVstobesoldperyearin2050andcanonlybeenabledbyadoptingsmartgrids.
Theactualloadofabatteryconnectedtothegrid whilechargingordischargingisdiscussedin
thefollowingparagraphs.
Page|23
Chargingpower
A normal household plug has between 1.8kW in Northern America (110V at 16A) and 3.7kW
(230Vat16A)inEurope.ManyexistingbatteryvehiclechargersusetheNationalElectricalCode
(NEC)Level2standardof6.6kW.ThefirstautomotivepowerelectronicsunitdesignedforG2V
(in production by AC Propulsion) provides 80A in either direction. Thus, by Joules law (Power
(W)=potentialdifference(V)*electriccurrent(I)),itprovides19.2kWataresidence(240V)or
16.6kWatacommercialbuilding(208V)(Kempton,2005).Inaddition,industrialchargers(orso
calledfastchargingstations)havecapacitiesof43kW(Circontrol,2010)to200kW(ABB,2010).
TheFrenchutilityEDFusesthefollowingcategorisationlevelsforchargers:3kW,6kW,24kW,
43kW, 150kW (Legrand, 2009). The US Department of Energy uses three classification levels:
1.44kW,3.3kWand60kWto150kW(DOE,2008).Thelastlevelisforfastcharging.
Fast charging can reduce battery life and it is not assumed to become the preferred charging
mode. The best fastcharging mode will potentially be battery swapping, where the discharged
battery is replaced within a few minutes by a fully charged one. The batteryswapping station
wouldratheruseslowchargingtooptimisebatterylife.
France expects that 90% of vehicles will be charged using slow charging and 10% using quick
charging (RWTH, 2010). By using this distribution and assuming 3.7kW for slow charging and
40kWforfast,anaveragechargingloadPCHGof7.3kWisassumed.
Dischargingpower
The charging power is governed by the charger, which determines the load of the charging
processonthegrid(G2V).IfavehicleprovidesV2Gservicestothegrid,itisuncertainwhether
thedischargingpowerislimitedbythechargerorthebattery.Itshouldbenotedthatthispaper
onlyconsidersV2Gservicesthatprovideenergyfromthebatteryandnotfromtheengineofa
PHEV(whichcanbeoperatedasagenerator).
The power that a vehicle can deliver can be approximated with the following formula
(Kempton,2005):
/
where PVEH is maximum power from V2G (kW); ES the stored energy available as direct current
(kWh)totheinverter;dDthedistancedriven(km)sincebatterywasfull;dRBthedistance(km)of
therangebufferrequiredbythedriver;VEHthevehicleelectricdrivingefficiency(kWh/km);INV
theelectricalconversion efficiencyof the directto alternatingcurrentinverter(dimensionless);
andtDISPisthetimethevehicle'sstoredenergyisdispatched(hours).
TheIEAsEV/PHEVTechnologyRoadmapassumesthatEVswillhaveabatterystoragecapacityES
of about 30 kWh while PHEVs will have approximately 8kWh. It also assumes an average
efficiency VEH of 0.15kWh/km to 0.2kWh/km, with some additional reserve battery capacity
(IEA,2009a).
OECD/IEA2011
Thedistancedrivensincethebatterywasfull,dD,dependsonvariouscharacteristics:thedriving
pattern, the vehicle type, and the driver's strategies for being prepared to provide power. The
average daily vehicle distance travelled per driver in the United States is 51.2km. Kempton
(2005) assumes that half the average daily vehicle distance has been travelled when the driver
parksthevehicleandplugsittothegrid,thusDD=26km.ThedistanceoftherangebufferdRBis
Page|24 the minimum remaining range required by the driver as a reserve. The range buffer is
determined by the V2G service company or the driver, and does not depend on the vehicle
characteristics.AstudywithCaliforniandriversfoundthat32kmwassufficientformostdrivers
(Kurani, Turrentine and Sperling, 1994). This paper uses a range buffer dRB of 32km for EVs.
PHEVs can be fully discharged, as they can always be operated with the combustion engine
poweredbyfuel.ThusdRBissetto0forPHEVs.AninverterefficiencyINVof0.93isassumed.
Theelectricitymarketdetermineshowlongthevehiclecanbedispatched.Thetimedispatched
(tDISP)canbeafewminutesforspinningreservesuptoseveralhoursforpeakpower.
Table8presentsthecalculationsoftheavailablepowerfromthebatterybyusingtheequation
presentedabove.
Table8Dischargingpowerofthevehiclebattery
EV
PHEV
EV
PHEV
EV
PHEV
EV
PHEV
tDISP (h)
DD (km)
25.6
25.6
25.6
25.6
25.6
25.6
25.6
25.6
dRB (km)
32
32
32
32
ES (kWh)
30
30
30
30
INV (/)
0.93
0.93
0.93
0.93
0.93
0.93
0.93
0.93
EV/PHEV (kWh/km)
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
PVEH (kW)
17.18
2.67
8.59
1.33
5.72
0.89
4.29
0.66
PEV/PHEV (kW)
9.93
4.96
3.31
2.48
AccordingtoIEAdata,thenumberofEVsandPHEVsisprojectedtobesimilar,sothepowerof
battery vehicles PEV/PHEV (EVs and PHEVs) can be calculated by averaging the power for EVs and
thepowerofPHEVs.Peakinghoursoccurbetween3and5hoursperday.Abatterycapacityfora
tdispbetween3and4hoursisthereforechosen,andforsimplificationadischargingload(PDISCHG)
of3kWisassumed.
Thedischargingload(PDISCHG)ofthebatteryislowerthanthepowerofthechargingstation(PCHG),
andasaresultisthelimitingfactorfordischarging.
Theshareofvehiclesconnectedtothegridduringpeakload(fEV)willstronglyinfluencetheload
ofthetotalvehiclefleetonthegrid.IntheUnitedStates,vehiclesareparked96%ofthetime.
Thefractionofvehiclesconnectedduringpeakhoursisexpectedtobelower,sincevehicleuseis
alsohigherduring peakhours.Thispaperassumes that50%of thevehiclesareconnectedand
chargefromthegridduringpeakhours.Thesmartgrid,however,canactivelycontroltheloadby
partially disconnecting some vehicles and thus throttle peak demand. Managed charging is
expectedtopenetratethemarketsoon,asitisalowcostandmaturetechnologythatisavailable
today. It only requires a communication device in the charger that transmits relevant battery
information to the grid operator who, by remote control, can partially disconnect a certain
number of charging vehicles if the grid capacity is saturated. Passenger car electrification is
underwayandtheadditionalloadmustbemanagedtoacertaindegree.
OECD/IEA2011
V2G is a less confirmed concept, because it is more costintensive and it requires building up
considerablymoreinfrastructuretoenablebidirectionalflow.Thebatterymanagementforgrid
support might be different than for vehicle propulsion and thus degrade the battery. The
degradationshouldbeincludedinthepricecompensationfromtheutilitytothecustomer,but
might be difficult to monetise. Moreover, consumer acceptance can be expected to be much
greaterforG2VthanforV2G,asitmaybeeasiertoacceptuncommittedchargingthanreducing Page|25
drivingrangebydischargingtothegrid.Finally,electriccarandbatterywarrantyissueswiththe
carmanufacturermaynotsupportV2G.ThemarketpotentialofV2GislimitedcomparedtoG2V.
Thetariffstructurewillstronglyinfluencethetimingofcharging/discharging.Thispaperexpects,
therefore, that the fraction of EVs connected during peak load will be smaller. The share of
vehiclesconnectedtothegrid,fEVG2V,issetto50%intheSG0Scenario.Aneffectivepricingpolicy
discourages peak charging (G2V), but encourages peak discharging to support the grid (V2G).
Hence, fEV G2V decreases through effective smart grid policy support. It is assumed that
uncommittedandmanagedcharginginanoptimisedelectricitygridcandisconnectanadditional
40%and60%oftheEVsconnectedduringpeaktimeintheSGMINandSGMAXcasesrespectively,
compared to SG0. The fraction of vehicles connected, fEV V2G, increases as the smart grid policy
scenariobecomesmoresupportive:theshareofvehiclesavailableis5%intheSGMINand15%in
theSGMAXcases.ThismaybeconservativecomparedtoastudyfromTurtonandMoura(2008),
whichexpectsvehiclestobeavailableforV2Gelectricityservicesfor50%ofthetime.
Table9FractionofvehiclesconnectedduringpeakloadfEV
fEV
G2V
V2G
SG0
50%
0%
SGMIN
30%
5%
SGMAX
20%
15%
EV/PHEVequations
The impact on peak load of EVs/PHEVs connected to the grid can therefore be modelled as
follows:
/
where the coefficient depends on the fraction of vehicles connected to the grid for charging
during peak load fEV (0 < fEV < 1) and on the load of one vehicle that is being charged PCHG.
dependsonthefractionofEVsconnected,fEV,andtheaveragedischargingpowerPDISCHG.
Fortheentirevehiclefleetandovertime,anaveragevalueforfEVandPCHGisassumed:
fEV SG
/MIN/MAX
PCHG
EVsconnectedtothegridcanserveasstoragedevicesandreducepeakdemandfromthegridby
providing electricity from the battery. For the entire vehicle fleet and over time, this paper
assumesanaveragevalueforfEVandPDISCHG:
fEV SG
/MIN/MAX
PDISCHG STEP TDR
AsmostofthesmartgridfunctionalitiesareonlyfeasibleifDRisavailable,TDRisdefinedasthe
yearDRcapabilitiesareenabled.
OECD/IEA2011
Demandresponseconsiderations
Demandresponse(DR)programmescan,intime,shifttheelectricityuseofcustomersfrompeak
tooffpeakperiodstosupportgridoperationbyreducingpeakload.DRisassumedtohavethe
samepotentialintheresidentialandservicesectortopartiallyreducepeakloads.
Page|26
The coefficient is defined by the fraction of residential and service demand to all demand
sectorsfDR(asderivedfromETP2010),bythepotentialofdemandresponserDR andtheshareof
AMI:
AMI STEP TDR
The fraction of residential and service demand to all demand sectors fDR was derived from
ETP2010.Valuesfromtheyear2030werechosenforthewholetimeintervalbetween2010and
2050. The analysed regions present very diverse sector energy uses; thus, it was necessary to
makearegionaldifferentiation.
Table10FractionofresidentialandservicedemandtoalldemandsectorsfDR
fDR (2030)
Baseline
BLUE Map
OECD EUR
59%
55%
OECD NA
59%
70%
OECD PAC
59%
56%
China
27%
23%
ThepotentialofDRisestimatedtobebetween5%and22.9%dependingonthetechnologyand
policies(Faruquietal.,2007).Forthescopeofthisstudy,theminimalandmaximalpotentialsof
rDRweresetto5%and15%respectively.Itwasassumedthatthereisnointerrelationbetween
DR and G2V/V2G. Hence the impact of DR on peak load can be described by the following
equation
Resultantpeakloadequation
The peak load reference case presented in the section Development of Peak Load Reference
Caseisanextrapolationofpeakloadusingnosmartgridtechnologies.Futuretechnologiesare
expected to influence electricity consumption behaviour and will affect peak load accordingly.
EVs/PHEVs and demand response (DR) are two key areas that are included in the modelling of
thepeakloadscenarios.
Peakloadcanbemodelledusingthefollowingequation:
/
Overviewofsmartgridcases
Withafullydefinedsetofequationsandcoefficients,thecasescanbequantified(Table11).It
should be highlighted that there are no EVs in the Baseline Scenario and that consequently
neithertheeffectofV2GnorthatofG2VisconsideredintheBaselineScenario.
OECD/IEA2011
Table11Summaryofthemodelledsmartgridscenarios
SG0
SGMAX
Baseline
DRresid/serv low
DRresid/serv high
BLUE Map
G2V unmanaged
DRresid/serv low
G2V managed low
V2G low
DRresid/serv high
G2V managed high
V2G high
SGMIN
Page|27
OECD/IEA2011
DiscussionofResults
Inthissection,thepotentialofsmartgridtechnologyisevaluatedwiththepeakloadestimations
upto2050forallregions.Inaddition,keysmartgriddriversarecomparedqualitativelyacrossall
regions.13
Page|28
Overviewofpeakloadevolutionintheanalysedregions
OECDEurope
ThegrowingshareofVREisakeychallengeforgridintegrationinEurope.InEurope,electricity
demandgrowsuntil2050by46%intheBaseSG0,andby23%intheBLUEMapSGMAXcase.The
peak load increase has been estimated at between 67% and 13% respectively for those cases.
Theincreasedenergyuseintheresidentialandservicesectorsmakesdemandresponseinthose
sectorsmuchmoreeffectiveinOECDEuropecomparedtoChina.ManyEuropeangovernments
aimtohavesmartmetersinstalledineveryhouseholdby2020toenableefficientdemandside
management.
TheBLUEMapSG0caseillustratesthatthedeploymentofEVs/PHEVssignificantlyincreasespeak
load,whereasintheBLUEMapSGMAXcase,theneedforadditionalcapacitycanbeshifteduntil
2025byemployingbothDRandusingstoredelectricityinEVs/PHEVstoreducepeakload.The
capitalinvestmentssavedbynotexpandingthegridcouldbeusedtoupgradetheexistinggrid
withsmartgridtechnologies.IntheBLUEMapSGMAXcase,peakdemandcanbereducedby12%
comparedtotheBLUEMapSGMINcase.
Figure9EstimatedpeakloadevolutioninOECDEUR,20102050
1000
900
800
700
600
BaselineSG0
BaselineSGMIN
BaselineSGMAX
BLUEMapSG0
BLUEMapSGMIN
BLUEMapSGMAX
500
400
300
(GW)
200
100
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
13
The ETP2010 figures for the year 2010 are calibrated with the World Energy Outlook 2010 Current Policy Scenario (IEA,
2010c)inthisstudyandthereforetheslightlydifferfromtheresultspresentedintheIEASmartGridsTechnologyRoadmap
(IEA,2011).
OECD/IEA2011
OECDNorthAmerica
OECDNAiscurrentlythelargestelectricitymarketintheworld.ThepeakloadscenarioinOECD
NAgenerallyhasthesamecharacteristicsasinEurope.Itisalowgrowthregionwithanageing
gridthatneedstobemodernisedtoguaranteeresilientoperation.Focussingonthetransmission
network in the United States, a smart grid approach could enhance operation through
Page|29
transmission system monitoring and management. The potential of shifting the need for
additionalcapacityintimeispromising,andthecurrentgridcanhandlepeakloadcapacityuntil
2050ifasmartgridisfullydeployed.ThisisdemonstratedintheBLUEMapSGMAXcaseinwhich
thepeakloadincreasesonly1%by2050,evenastheoveralldemandforelectricityincreasesby
25%.IncomparisonwiththeSG0case,thisistheperfectopportunitytoreinvestsavingsinthe
deployment of smart grid technologies. Many efforts are therefore expected to incorporate
demandsidemanagementtoincreasesystemflexibilityandavoidcapacityexpansion.
Figure10EstimatedpeakloadevolutioninOECDNA,20102050
1600
1400
1200
BaselineSG0
1000
BaselineSGMIN
800
BaselineSGMAX
600
BLUEMapSG0
(GW)
400
200
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Figure11EstimatedpeakloadevolutioninOECDNAwithoutusingdemandresponse,20102050
1400
1200
1000
800
BLUEMapSG0
600
BLUEMapSGMIN
BLUEMapSGMAX
400
(GW)
200
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
OECD/IEA2011
To highlight the effect of electricity storage from EVs/PHEVs, V2G and G2V services alone
(withoutdemandresponsecapabilities)arealsoanalysedforOECDNA.Figure11showsthatin
the BLUE Map SG0 case, total peak load increases by 29% over the 2010 value by 2050. When
G2VandV2Gservicesareapplied,peakloadincreaseisreducedto19%and12%inBLUEMap
SGMINandBLUEMapSGMAXrespectively.Allfouranalysedregionsshowsimilartrends.
OECDPacific
OECDPacificisalowgrowthregionforelectricity.Until2050,demandisexpectedtoincreaseby
52%intheBaseSG0and32%intheBLUEMapSGMAXcase.Inaddition,peakloadwillriseby50%
in the Base SG0 and 11% in the BLUE Map SGMAX case. Smart grids can potentially reduce peak
loadin2050by11%intheBLUESGMAXcasecomparedtotheBLUESGMINcase.Themodellingof
OECD Pacific requires special consideration: although modelled as a single region, the various
countries of OECD Pacific are not highly interconnected. The potential for interregional T&D
systems is limited because the region is geographically fragmented. Further analysis must be
carriedouttodeterminehowthiswillimpacttheareasofconcerndemonstratedinthemodel.
OpportunitiestointerconnectwithcontiguousnonOECDcountriesshouldalsobeconsidered.
Figure12EstimatedpeakloadevolutioninOECDPAC,20102050
500
450
400
350
BaselineSG0
300
BaselineSGMIN
250
BaselineSGMAX
200
BLUEMapSG0
150
BLUEMapSGMIN
100
BLUEMapSGMAX
(GW)
Page|30
50
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
China
China is expected to be the largest electricity market in the world in 2050. The high demand
growth(152%intheBLUEMapScenarioto209%intheBaselineScenario)from2010to2050in
China results in high peak load growth in all scenarios. To meet the significant growth in peak
load (Figure 13) until 2050, the current grid must be expanded and huge infrastructure
investmentswillbeneededalongthewholeelectricityvaluechain(i.e.generation,transmission,
distribution and enduse). A longterm strategic smart grid plan would allow China to leapfrog
towards a smart grid that operates efficiently and integrates new cleanenergy technologies to
minimisethefinancialandenvironmentalburdens.
InboththeSGMINandSGMAXintheBaselineandBLUEMapcasestheeffectofdemandresponseis
modest, as the residential and service sector portions of total energy enduse (fDR) is low. The
OECD/IEA2011
industrial sector is by far the dominant sector. China could further investigate the load curve
profilesofitsindustries,categorisethemanddeterminesubsectorsthatpresentpeakbehaviour,
anddevelopaspecificdemandresponseprogrammeforthoseindustries.IntheBLUEMapSGMAX
case, peak load can be lowered by 8% compared to the BLUE Map SGMIN case. This reflects
potentiallylargecapitalsavingsinthegridinfrastructureinvestmentsneededtosupportgrowth.
Considering that the impact of DR is low, this number essentially highlights the potential of Page|31
EVs/PHEVs in supporting grid operation. China is pushing for the introduction of EVs and is
leading in technology development. China is a key market, expected to have more than
100millionEVsandPHEVsontheroadsin2050.
Figure13EstimatedpeakloadevolutioninChina,20102050
2500
2000
BaselineSG0
1500
BaselineSGMIN
BaselineSGMAX
1000
BLUEMapSG0
BLUEMapSGMIN
500
(GW)
BLUEMapSGMAX
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Sensitivityanalysis
A sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to recognise uncertainty in the parameters
considered. The impact on peak load is analysed by increasing every parameter individually by
10% and reiterating the calculations. The relative error in peak load between the initial and
increasedvalueiscomparedforeveryparameterinordertodetecthowsensitivetheresultsare
totheassumedparameters.Thefollowingparameterswereanalysed:
maximalDRpotential(rDR)
fractionofresidentialandservicesectorscomparedtoallsectors(fDR)
dischargingcapacity(PDISCHG)
chargingcapacity(PCHG)
fractionofvehiclesconnectedG2VandV2G(fG2V,fV2G)
AMIgrowthrate(r)
TheresultsarepresentedforOECDNABLUEMapSGMAXinFigure14.Therelativeerrorisinthe
rangeof0.3%to1.1%,exceptfortheAMIgrowthratewheretherelativeerroris0%.Thegrowth
ratedeterminesthesaturationspeedofthelogisticcurve,butdoesnotinfluencethesaturation
level, which is achieved by 2050 for both the initial and increased growthrate values. A
sensitivity analysis between 2011 and 2050 has indicated that the highest relative error of the
OECD/IEA2011
growth rate is 1.4% in 2019. The chosen parameters are relatively insensitive to +10%
fluctuations.
Figure14SensitivityanalysisforOECDNABLUEMapSGMAXcase
Page|32
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
rDR
fDR
PDISCHG
PCHG
fG2V
fV2G
r
relativeerrorin2050
Qualitativecomparisonofsmartgriddrivermetrics
betweenregions
Peak load and the three smart grid drivers discussed in ETP2010 (demand, VRE and EVs) are
comparedqualitativelyinordertoderiveprioritiesanddifferencesforsmartgriddeploymentin
each region. The goal of the deployment scenario presented in the Smart Grids Technology
Roadmapistoidentifykeypriorities,actionitemsandmilestonesintechnologyandpolicytoa
broad range of stakeholders, including policy makers, regulators, equipment manufacturers,
utilitiesandgridoperators.
TheresultsfromthemodellingdevisedinthispaperandETP2010aredisplayedgraphicallyto
illustratethedifferingsystemneedsofthefourregions.Differentcolourswereassignedtolow,
medium,highandveryhighlevelsforthedrivers(Table12)todemonstratethedifferentimpacts
on the various regional electricity systems from 2010 to 2050 in each scenario. This approach
aims to show where regional focus is needed to achieve a considerable reduction in CO2
emissions;theanalysisisthereforelimitedtotheBLUESGMINandSGMAXcases.
Thefollowingsmartgriddrivermetricsweremodelledinthisstudy:
Increaseindemand:Comparedwith2010levels(TWh).
Peakloadincrease:Comparedwith2010levels(GW).Thisincludesallcontributionstopeak
loadincreases,suchasEV/PHEVdeploymentandhigherelectricityuseinbuildings.
The following drivers derive directly from ETP 2010 analysis and therefore show no difference
betweentheSGminandSGmaxScenarios:
VRE deployment: Portion of overall demand produced by variable renewable resources to
totalgeneratingcapacity.
EV/PHEVportionofpeakdemand:PortionofpeakdemandasaresultofEV/PHEV
deployment.
OECD/IEA2011
Table12Smartgriddrivermetricsforgraphicalrepresentation(%)
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Increase in demand
0 <x 50
50 <x 100
100<x 150
150 < x
Peak load increase
0 <x 5
5 <x 20
20 <x 35
35 < x
VRE deployment
5 <x 10
10 <x 20
20 <x 35
35 < x
EV/PHEV portion of peak demand
1 <x 5
5 <x 10
10 <x 15
15 < x
Thisapproachisnotmeanttoindicatedefinitivelythatanyonedriverisindispensibleforreliable
and secure operation of the grid; rather it provides a relative comparison between regions to
show where focus could initially be placed to address longerterm concerns. For example, the
impactofEVs/PHEVsinChinaandEuropeisverysimilar,butsinceChinasgridanddemandare
much larger than Europes by 2050, the number of vehicles deployed for the same impact is
twiceashigh.Althoughthereisasignificantdifferenceinthescaleofdeploymentrelativetothe
respectivesystemsizes,bothregionscouldplacethesameemphasisonthisareaforsmartgrid
deployment.
Figure15comparesallkeysmartgriddriversqualitativelyforallfourregionsintheBLUESGMIN
andBLUESGMAXScenarios.Thedeploymentofsmartgridswillallowforconstructionofelectricity
infrastructure that can be better planned and designed to meet the needs of today and the
futurewhilereducingthenegativeimpactsonpeakdemandwiththedeploymentofEVs/PHEVs.
BLUESGMINandBLUESGMAXcases
In the BLUE SGMIN case, cleanenergy technologies are deployed significantly, although policy
supportforsmartgridsismodest.OECDcountriesdemonstratesimilartrendswithrespecttoall
drivers(Figure15),butOECDEuropemustaddressalldriversearlier.OECDNAcan,andindeed
must, benefit significantly from the deployment of smart grids, given that it is the largest
electricity market in the world at this time and has an ageing infrastructure, especially at the
transmissionsystemlevel.Inthisrespect,focussinglargelyonthedemandresponsebenefitsof
smart grids and transmission system monitoring and management could be highly valuable.
OECD Pacific, although modelled as a single region, comprises countries that are not highly
interconnected. Further analysis must therefore be carried out to determine how this
fragmentation will impact the areas of concern demonstrated in the model. Furthermore, the
OECDPACgridisthenewestgridamongthethreeOECDregionsandmodernisationmightbeless
urgentfromanelectricityreliabilityperspective.
Ahighdemandgrowth,dominatedbyeconomicgrowth,requirescapacityexpansionsinChina.
EV/PHEV integration is an important concept that must be prepared, but that will not have a
considerable impact on the grid before 2030 at the earliest, when the number of vehicles
becomessignificant.Itisessential,however,thattheinfrastructuretoassureG2VandV2Gbein
placebythen.
In the BLUE Map SGMAX case, cleanenergy technologies are deployed significantly and are
stronglysupportedbysmartgridpolicies.Thisstrongpolicysupportisreflectedinthehighuseof
demand response in the residential and service sector, controlled EV/PHEV charging and
increased use of V2G services. The BLUE Map SGMAX Scenario can only be achieved by
considerable consumer engagement: the regulator must develop a pricing scheme that
incentivisestheadoption ofsmartgridservices.Aparticularchallengeistointernaliseexternal
benefits such as environmental protection and energy efficiency into a tariff structure
guaranteeingaffordableaccesstoelectricity.
Page|33
OECD/IEA2011
Smart grid technologies reduce peak load, which determines the capacity of the T&D
infrastructure. Thus, they may make it possible to delay capacity expansions and their
concomitant financial investments. The peakload bar in Figure 15 illustrates how a smart grid
candefergridexpansionsinOECDcountriesbetweentheBLUESGMINandBLUESGMAXScenarios,
ifthenecessarymodernisationsareperformedtoenablesmartgrids.
Page|34
OECD/IEA2011
Figure15SmartgriddriversintheBLUESGMINandBLUESGMAXcasesacrossallanalysedregions
comparedto2011
LowMediumHighVeryHigh
BLUESGMIN
BLUESGMAX
Page|35
Increaseindemand
OECDEUR
Peakloadincrease
VREdeployment
EV/PHEVportion
ofpeakdemand
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Increaseindemand
OECDNA
Peakloadincrease
VREdeployment
EV/PHEVportion
ofpeakdemand
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Increaseindemand
OECDPAC
Peakloadincrease
VREdeployment
2010
2020
2030
2040
EV/PHEVportion
ofpeakdemand
2050
Increaseindemand
China
Peakloadincrease
VREdeployment
EV/PHEVportion
ofpeakdemand
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
OECD/IEA2011
Conclusions
Recognising the difficulty of developing a unique smart grid deployment indicator by scenario
planning,thispaperhasanalysedthesmartgriddriversinthecontextofpeakload.Thefirststep
of the methodology was to determine smart grid drivers. Generation demand, peak load, the
Page|36 shareofVRE,transportelectrificationandtheageofthegridareallincreasingandpressingfor
the adoption of smart grid technologies that manage the grid in an efficient and resilient way.
With this prospect in mind, smart grid deployment is expected to be an economical and
environmental solution to meet the goals set in the ETP 2010 BLUE Map Scenario concerning
demand,VREandEV/PHEVadoption.Helpingtosupportanageinginfrastructurewasconsidered
butnotincludedatthisstageinthequantitativeanalysisbecauseofmissingdata.
Themodellingestimatedpeakloadevolutionbetween2010and2050forOECDEUR,OECDNA,
OECDPACandChinawiththedeploymentofsmartgridsataminimal(SGMIN)ormaximal(SGMAX)
level.Theanalysisisfocusedonthedemandside,inparticulardemandresponseintheservice
andresidentialsector,aswellastheintegrationofEVs/PHEVs.EVs/PHEVsconnectedtothegrid
during peak time further stress the grid, but the impact can be diminished through controlled
charging, which would automatically disconnect select vehicles, according to objective criteria
transparently applied. In the longer term, EVs/PHEVs will provide V2G services by supplying
electricity stored in the battery to the grid and lowering peak load. The potential of V2G is
limited, as it is technologically more complex and expensive. As has been mentioned, the
introduction of AMI and smart meters alone has no or a limited impact on peak demand, but
should be accompanied by the adoption of dynamic pricing to provide the appropriate price
signalstothecustomer.
Theresultsrevealthat,dependingontheregion,smartgridscanlowerpeakloadconsiderably,
by 8% to 12% in 2050 in the BLUE Map SGMAX case compared to that of the BLUE Map SGMIN.
OECD countries are lowgrowth regions with more or less ageing grids. The deployment of a
smart grid could considerably postpone investments in grid expansion and use saved funds to
leverage smart grid investments. OECD EUR is strongly deploying VRE and plans to achieve a
shareof37%intermsofcapacityintheBLUEMapScenarioby2050.Afirstpriorityforsmartgrid
deploymentcouldbetheimplementationofanadvancedgridmanagementsystem.Smartgrid
technologiescouldenableOECDNAintheBLUESGMAXcasetokeeppeakloadattodayslevels
until 2050 to delay grid expansions. Chinas strong demand growth leads to high peak load
increasesinallcases.Thegridwillneedtobeenlargeddramatically,providingtheopportunity
for the country to build up a modern, efficient and resilient grid. EVs/PHEVs have been
characterisedasadoubleedgedswordthatcouldbothstressandsupportthegridduringpeak
load,dependingonthedeploymentlevelofasmartgrid.
The methodology presented has demonstrated its ability to develop a smart grid deployment
scenario that quantifies the impact of smart grids and compares different regions. Further
refinements will include the modelling of supplyside flexibility and a detailed analysis of the
impact of cleanenergy technologies (such as distributed and embedded renewable energy
generation) on the load curve. It would also be valuable to discuss electricity storage more
generally,includingothertechnologies(e.g.gridbatteries,hydrostorageandcompressedair).
OECD/IEA2011
Acronymsandabbreviations
AMI
CO2
CPL
dD
DGEN
DR
dRB
EIA
ES
ETP2010
EUR
EV
fDR
fEV
IEA
L
LAVE
NA
NEV/PHEV
OECD
PAC
PCHG
PDISCHG
PHEV
PL
PVEH
r
rDR
SG
STEP
T&D
tDISP
TDR
VRE
INV
VEH
advancedmeteringinfrastructure
carbondioxide
peakcoefficient
Page|37
distancedrivensincebatterywasfull(km)
annualgenerationdemand(TWh)
demandresponse
distanceoftherangebufferrequiredbythedriver(km)
EnergyInformationAdministration
storedenergyavailableasdirectcurrenttotheinverter(kWh)
EnergyTechnologyPerspectives,2010(IEApublication)
Europe(countriespartoftheanalysedregionarelistedinTable1)
electricvehicles
fractionofresidentialandservicedemandtoalldemandsectors(%)
shareofvehiclesconnectedtothegridduringpeakload(%)
InternationalEnergyAgency
T&Dlosses(%)
annualaverageload(GW)
NorthAmerica(countriespartoftheanalysedregionarelistedinTable1)
numberofEVsandPHEVs
OrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment
Pacific(countriespartoftheanalysedregionarelistedinTable1)
chargingpower(kW)
dischargingpower(kW)
pluginhybridelectricvehicles
peakload(GW)
maximumpowerfromV2G(kW)
growthrate
reductionpotentialofdemandresponse(%)
smartgrid
stepfunction
transmissionanddistribution
momentavehicle'sstoredenergyisdispatched(hours)
timeatwhichdemandresponseisinoperation
variablerenewableenergysources
electricalconversionefficiencyofthedirecttoalternatingcurrentinverter(%)
vehicleelectricdrivingefficiency(kWh/km)
OECD/IEA2011
References
ABB(2010),ElectricVehicleInfrastructure:DCFastChargeStation,ABB,Turgi,Switzerland.
BCHydro(2011),SmartMetering&InfrastructureProgramBusinessCase,BCHydro,Vancouver.
Page|38
Budde,P.(2010),Australia:SmartGridMarketin2011,PaulBuddeCommunication,Bucketty,
Australia.
CER(CommissionforEnergyRegulationIreland)(2011),CostBenefitAnalysis(CBA)fora
NationalElectricitySmartMeteringRolloutinIreland,CER,Dublin.
Circontrol(2010),ElectricVehicleCharging:How,WhenandWhere?,
http://circarlife.circontrol.com/en/news/electricvehiclecharginghowwhenandwhere.
DECC(DepartmentofEnergyandClimateChangeUK)(2011),SmartMeteringImplementation
Programme:ResponsetoProspectusConsultation,DECC,London.
DOE(USDepartmentofEnergy)(2008),PluginHybridElectricVehicleChargingInfrastructure
Review,DOE,Idaho.
EC(EuropeanCommission)(2009),Directive2009/72/EC,EC,Brussels.
Enel(n.d.),SmartMeteringSystem,Enel,Italy,http://www.enel.com/en
GB/innovation/project_technology/zero_emission_life/smart_networks/smart_meters.aspx?i
t=0.
Ernst&Young(n.d.),TheUS:SignificantFundingforSmartInitiatives,
http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Industries/PowerUtilities/Seeingenergydifferently
GeographicaldifferencesTheUSsignificantfundingforsmartinitiatives.
Faruqui,A.,R.Hladik,S.NewellandH.Pfeiffenberger(2007),ThePowerof5Percent,The
ElectricityJournal,ElsevierInc,Vol.20,pp.6877.
Ford,A.(1997),SystemDynamicsandtheElectricPowerIndustry,SystemDynamicsReview,
Vol.13,No.1,pp.5785.
IEA(InternationalEnergyAgency)(2009a),EV/PHEVTechnologyRoadmap,OECD/IEA,Paris.
IEA2009b),ModellingLoadShiftingUsingElectricVehiclesinaSmartGridEnvironment,
OECD/IEA,Paris.
IEA(2010a),EnergyTechnologyPerspectives,OECD/IEA,Paris.
IEA(2010b),ProspectsforLargeScaleEnergyStorageinDecarbonisedPowerGrids,OECD/IEA,
Paris.
IEA(2010c),WorldEnergyOutlook2010,OECD/IEA,Paris.
IEA(2011),SmartGridsTechnologyRoadmap,OECD/IEA,Paris.
Kempton,W.(2005),VehicletoGridPowerFundamentals:CalculatingCapacityandNet
Revenue,JournalofPowerSources,ElsevierInc.,Vol.144,pp.268279.
Kurani,K.,T.TurrentineandD.Sperling(1994),DemandforElectricVehiclesinHybrid
Households:AnExploratoryAnalysis,TransportationPolicy,Vol.1,pp.244256.
Legrand,J.L.(2009),Groupedetravailsurlesinfrastructuresderechargepourlesvhicules
lectriquesouhybridesrechargeables,workshoppresentation.
MinistryofEcologyandEnergy,France(2010),Decreen20101022onSmartMeters,
GovernmentofFrance,Paris.
OECD/IEA2011
MinistryofEnergy,Ontario(n.d.),SmartMeters,
http://www.mei.gov.on.ca/en/energy/electricity/?page=smartmeters.
MinistryofTradeandIndustry,Finland(2009),ElectricityMarketAct66/2009.
MKE(MinistryofKnowledgeEconomy,RepublicofKorea)(2010),KoreaNationalSmartGrid
RoadMap,MKE,RepublicofKorea.
RWTH(RheinischWestflischeTechnischeHochschuleAachen)(2010),GridforVehicles,
www.g4v.eu/datas/Parameter_Manual_WP1_3_RWTH_101216.pdf.
Schoemaker,P.J.H.(1995),ScenarioPlanning:AToolforStrategicThinking,SloanManagement
Review,Vol.36,No.2,pp.2540.
Turton,H.andF.Moura(2008),VehicletoGridSystemsforSustainableDevelopment:An
IntegratedEnergyAnalysis,TechnologicalForecasting&SocialChange,ElsevierInc.,Vol.75,
pp.10911108.
Page|39

9 rue de la Fdration
75739 Paris Cedex 15
www.iea.org

Article Impact of Smart Grid Technologies On Peak Load IEA

Caricato da

Informazioni sul documento

Titolo originale

Copyright

Formati disponibili

Condividi questo documento

Condividi o incorpora il documento

Opzioni di condivisione

Hai trovato utile questo documento?

Questo contenuto è inappropriato?

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

Article Impact of Smart Grid Technologies On Peak Load IEA

Caricato da

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

2011

Impact of Smart Grid

International Energy Agency

Impact of Smart Grid

The views expressed in this working paper are those of

International Energy Agency

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

IEA member countries:

Please note that this publication

The European Commission

generation and demandside management. Further, improved management and monitoring

Canada, Mexico and United States

Australia, Japan, Korea, New Zealand

Average load (GW)

Peak load coefficient

Average load (GW)

Peak load coefficient

Total peak (GW)

Average load (GW)

Peak load coefficient

Total peak (GW)

Smart meter projections

Generation demand (DGEN = (TWh)) indicates electricity consumption as estimated by the

0.05 (OECD PAC)

0.07 (rest of OECD and China)

PDISCHG STEP TDR

Peak load increase

EV/PHEV portion of peak demand

International Energy Agency

Potrebbero piacerti anche