The development of students' mathematical reasoning through the study of probability is

essential in daily life. Probability represents real-life mathematics. Probability also connects
many areas of mathematics, particularly counting and geometry (NCTM, 1989). Moore (1990)
stated, Probability is the branch of mathematics that describes randomness. The conflict between
probability theory and students' view of the world is due at least in part to students' limited
contact with randomness. We must therefore prepare the way for the study of chance by
providing experience with random behavior early in the mathematics curriculum. According to
Newman, Obremski, & Schaeffer (1987) ,the most important use of probability is to help us
make decisions as we go through life.
The implementation of the new curriculum is to ensure all primary and lower secondary
school pupils have the achievement in basic literacy skills. The content and learning standards
that are outlined in the new curriculum were specifically aim towards ensuring pupils to acquire
knowledge, skill and values to carry out real life tasks of a touristic nature then effectively
express views and hold ones own social discourse ,finally able to participate in professional and
academic life. The education ministry also emphasis on practicing Higher Order Thinking Skill
( HOTS) questions for every subject starting from primary school to the secondary so that the
pupils prepared for carrying out real life situation problems in their competitive life in the
future.Current and past recommendations for the mathematics curriculum identify experimental
probability as one of several critical basic skill areas that should occupy a more prominent place
in the school curricula than in the past (National Council for Supervisor of Mathematics
(NCSM), 1989; Mathematical Sciences Education Board [MSEB], 1990; Willoughby, 1990;
NCTM, 2000).
Along with the reports, our ministry of Education might wishes to introduce teaching
probability as it needs a higher order thinking skills in Form 1 Mathematics Curriculum because
the advantages of teaching probability is that students naturally have some understanding of the
topic from their real life experiences - from hearing weather reports, to rolling a die to try to win
a game. This will build on students past experience and engage them in a variety of games,
activities and investigations in which theyre encouraged to predict outcomes and then test their

predictions through their first hand experiences and to enhance their science inquiry method.
Pupils can be taught experimental probability at this level.Experience with probability can
contribute to students' conceptual knowledge of working with data and chance (Pugalee,
1999).
For an example, pupils will be forecasting weather and find the probability for a week.
Then, for the inquiry to know the actual climate, pupils will be carrying out observation of the
weather for a week. Finally , pupils will be comparing and analyzing the result with the
prediction done by them earlier. From there, they will make conclusion and prediction for the
day after.

Indirectly, this will increase the pupils interest in

collecting, analyzing and

interpreting data as a fundamental of science inquiry practice. Pupils will be introduced

identifying possible outcomes of a probability experiment which prepared them to determine
the theoretical probability and comparison of the both type of probability.
According to Bruner , he believes concepts should be revisited at increasing levels of
complexity as students move through the curriculum rather than encountering a topic only once
(Schunk, 1991). This would also apply to teaching probability. If students are to understand
probability at a deeper level in high school and college, then the skills necessary for its mastery
must begin in the elementary grades (NCTM, 2000), as early in the school year as possible. The
kind of reasoning used in probability is not always intuitive, and so it may not be developed in
young children if it is not included in the curriculum (NCTM, 2000). Recommendations
concerning school curricula suggest that statistics and probability be studied as early as lower
secondary school (MSEB, 1990; NCTM, 2000). The learning of probability in early grades will
provide students with a stronger foundation for further study of statistics and probability in high
level of education.
Besides these, there are also disadvantages of learning probability in lower secondary
level. Probability has long been a difficult subject to learn and teach. It is replete with intuitive
challenges and even paradoxes, it utilizes a language and terminology that is demanding even for
those with some statistical background, and it moves very quickly from simple calculation into

the realms of complicated mathematics. Little wonder that students at university also struggle of
the topic probability.
Students may appear to have difficulties developing correct intuition about fundamental
ideas of probability. Students may have an underlying difficulty with rational number concepts
and proportional reasoning which are used in calculating, reporting and interpreting probabilities.
Students were generally weak in rational number concepts and had difficulties with basic
concepts involving fractions, decimals, and percents (carpenter, corbitt & kepner, 1981).
Besides this, the shortage of qualified teachers and teaching resources also one of the
disadvantages to teach the topic probability in form 1. Teachers have had very little or no
exposure to probability. Even if they have received some exposure to probability in either preservice or in-service training, the programme is usually dominated by theory, with no experience
with activities or simulations. Furthermore, there are very limited teaching resources, such as
textbooks, activities and materials (dice, marbles) provided by schools.
Probability is difficult to teach, because we should not only present different models and
show their applications, but we have to go deeper into wider questions, consisting of how to
obtain knowledge from data, why a model is suitable and how to help students develop correct
intuitions in this field.

Recent curriculum developments in primary school mathematics have seen a much

greater emphasis on the, role of probability in the classroom. The importance of understanding
probabilistic concepts in modem technological societies is now well established but the inclusion
of probability into the mathematics curriculum is a relatively recent development. Furthermore
the teaching of the topic is "a very difficult task, fraught with ambiguity and illusion" (Garfield
& Ahlgren, 1988, p. 57) and studies have shown that the content knowledge of topics in
probability and statistics for both primary and secondary teachers is often deficient.