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Superhighway(APIS):
NewAvenuetoRevenue
AbuSaeedKhan
SeniorPolicyFellow
LIRNEasia
@ESCAP,Bangkok
December23,2014
Technologyshapespolicyanddevelopment(1997)
Oslo2006
Ubiquitous UniversalAccess
EffectiveRegulation
License
Spectrum
Interconnection
InternetBandwidth
Operator1
UniversalService
Operator2
Operatorn
1997
2015
Ubiquitous voice/data
Ubiquitous broadband
Reducepovertyby50%
Brazildid
itin
2008!
PPPinMDG#8
Incooperationwiththe
privatesector, make
availablethebenefitsof
newtechnologies,
especially informationand
communications.
PPPinMDG#8
Incooperationwiththe
privatesector, make
availablethebenefitsof
newtechnologies,
especially informationand
communications.
AsianHighwaycandeliverMDG#8
Anetworkof141,000km ofstandardizedroadways
crisscrossing32countries connectingAsiawithEurope.
AtotalofUS$26billion hasalreadybeeninvestedinthe
improvementandupgrades.
However,thereisstillashortfallofUS$18billion.
MoredetailsinESCAPswebsite
Q:WhyAsianHighway
strugglesforfund?
A:Telecomshasnot beenconsidered.
Richispayinglesswhilepoorpaysmore.
WhoistobeblamedforcolonizingInternet?
Source:GlobalInternetGeography2014,TeleGeography.
2012
2013
2014
Hong Kong
$12.00
$8.20
$7.00
$6.00
-14%
-21%
Seoul
$13.50
$15.00
$13.50
$12.00
-17%
-4%
Singapore
$17.00
$8.60
$7.00
$6.25
-11%
-28%
Taipei
$14.33
$17.00
$15.55
$12.00
-27%
-6%
Tokyo
$13.50
$9.00
$9.00
$8.00
-29%
-16%
$23.00
$22.00
$13.00
$12.06
-7%
-19%
Kuala Lumpur
$20.67
$11.00
$12.45
$8.00
-36%
-27%
Mumbai
$24.00
$24.00
$19.00
$19.00
0%
-7%
Sydney
$60.00
$25.00
$21.00
$19.00
-10%
-32%
Source:GlobalInternetGeography2014,TeleGeography.
Bandwidthforecast:ShifttowardsEurope
MiddleEast toEuropehasgrown
from51%(2003)to85%(2013).
NorthAfricatoEuropehasgrown
from61%(2003)to94%(2013).
72%ofbandwidthconnectedto
SubSaharanAfrica,upfrom39%a
decadeago.
SouthAsia toEuropehasgrown
fromlessthan6%(2003)toover
46%(2013).
Wehavetwo
majorconcerns
Source:CienaandTeleGeography
ChinagoestoEuropeviaRussia
MEEuropegetsterrestrial
JeddahAmmanDamascus
Istanbul(JADI)
RegionalCableNetwork(RCN)
BypassEgypt
Dodgethepirates
EuropePersia
ExpressGateway
IranandOmanalsodetour
EPEGisnowtheInternetsfastestpathbetweentheGulfand
Europe,shavingatleasttenpercentoff thebestsubmarinecable
roundtriptimefromDubaitoFrankfurt.JimCowie,Renesys.26
Sep,2013.
APAC toEuropeviaMiddleEast?
1) 2008:RelianceandChinaMobile terrestriallink.
2) 2009:TataandChinaMobile terrestriallink.
3) 2010:BhartiandChinaMobile terrestriallink.
Solution:FiberalongtheAsianHighway
Russia,India,China,Turkey,CentralAsia,SAARC,ASEAN+2
AsiaPacificInformationSuperhighway(APIS)
forIntraAsianandEurasianbroadband.
AsianHighwayhasalreadylinkedtheborders.
Afullymeshed terrestrialAPISiswaiting.
TargetsofAPIS:Openaccess
1) DiversityandRedundancytoallsubmarinecableslinkingAsiawith
EuropeandtheUSAviaJapanthroughaTerrestrialConsortium.
2) MigrateSEAMEWE3&SEAMEWE4fromoffshoretoonshore.
Alsoletallprivatecarrierstomigrate.
3) Noregulatorydisruption.Onlythelicensedcarrierswillaccess
LION.
AdvantagesofAPIS
Presumedunfriendlycountriesarealreadyinterlinked.
Submarine:SEAMEWE3andSEAMEWE4.
Terrestrial:SinoIndianlinks(Reliance/Tata/Bharti +ChinaMobile).
Highlyresilientduetobeingmeshed.
Reroutingthetrafficmeanszerodowntime.
Installationandmaintenancecrew/materialsavailableeverywhere.
Createsmoreopportunitiesforsubmarinecables.
InvestmentsintranspacificratherthanintraAsia.
Lower latencyandhigher SLAatlesser costforinternationalbandwidth.
Openaccessguaranteed
ImpactsofAPIS
Investmentsinbroadbandwillincrease.
TherewillbehigherROIinFTTx.
MoreinternationalanddomesticPoPs/accessnodeswillemerge.
Landlockedcountrieswillhavebandwidthatequalcost.
Subregionaltelecomsinitiativeshavenotdeliveredthat.
Pacificislandswillenjoyreducedbandwidthcostinthemainland.
InternationalGateway(IGW)reformswillbeaccelerated.
Usageofsubmarinecablespurchasedcapacitywillbemaximized.
Carrierswillcommitlongercontracts.
Nationalbroadbandbackbones
willrequirelessersubsidies.
APISandAsianHighway
TurnAsianHighwayintoAsianInformationHighway
ESCAPremainsthecommonproponent.
MillenniumDevelopmentGoals.
Localemploymentgeneration.
PublicPrivatePartnership.
Boostinglocalbusinesses.
Enablingsectoralreforms.
Respectivecountry'sroadauthoritieswillowntheirportionoffiber
network.
MayrequiretoobtainInfrastructureProviderlicenseforregulatory
compliance.
HugesavingsfromthenonpaymentofROW.
AccesswillbegiventotheInternationalGatewayoperatorsforregulatory
compliance.
AdjustedMarginwillbepaidtoeachcountryproportionately(Regular
contributiontotheroadmaintenancebudget).
November5,2013:TigerWoodsinIstanbul
tohit10golfballsfromAsiatoEurope.
ProfessorCharlesKKao(),FatherofOpticalFiber,
NobelLaureateinPhysics(2009)
Sandfromcenturiespast;
Sendfuturevoicesfast.
Nextsteps:Inclusiveengagement
RoutesurveyoftheentireAsianHighway.
Design,budgetandimplementationschedule.
Fundingoftheproject.