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2015-03-24
Presentation Outline
FY2014 Economic Performance
GDP growth
Inflation
External sector
Fiscal and monetary developments
2015-03-24
FY2014 Overview
Industry
Agriculture
Percentage
points
6
5.2
4.6
4.3
Favorable monsoon
Agricultural growth at
4.7%
3.8
4
3.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015-03-24
Inflation
Annual average inflation stayed
high at 9.1% in FY2014
Monthly inflation
% change
20
Overall
15
10
0
Aug20 Feb20
10
11
Aug
Feb20
12
Aug
Feb20
13
Aug
Feb20
14
Aug
Jan
Supply-side bottlenecks
persisted
Food inflation worsened in India
2015-03-24
Oil imports
Tourism and travel
Current account balance
% of GDP
40
30
20
10
-10
-20
-30
-40
2010
2015-03-24
2011
2012
2013
2014
% of GDP
30
Grants
Capital expenditure
%
15
10
20
10
0
0
-5
-10
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
BE
-10
Jul2012
Jan2013
Jul
Jan2014
Jul
Jan
2015-03-24
10
11
FY2015: 4.6%
Unfavorable monsoon
Natural disasters (floods
& landslides)
Political uncertainty
(Improved business
confidence and reformoriented budget)
2015-03-24
FY2016: 5.1%
Normal monsoon
Timely full budget &
effective budget
execution
High remittance inflows
Normalization of political
uncertainties
Strong investor
confidence
12
FY2015: 7.7%
FY2016: 7.3%
2015-03-24
13
Slowdown in remittance
inflows
2015-03-24
14
2015-03-24
15
120
100
120
80
100
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
120
100
70
60
OECD avg
80
50
60
40
40
30
20
20
10
0
Bhutan
(2009)
2015-03-24
Sri Lanka
(2011)
Nepal
(2013)
Bangldesh
(2013)
India
(2014)
Pakistan
(2007)
PRC
(2012)
16
Fairly stable finance sector compared the time when real estate and housing
prices collapsed.
Banking sector troubles surfaced prompting proactive role of the central bank
2015-03-24
17
2015-03-24
18
2015-03-24
19
% of GDP
Budgeted
10
Insufficient capital
investment to bridge
infrastructure gap
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015-03-24
20
100
82.6
80
71.8
74.9
71.6
70.8
60
40
20
0
FY2009
FY2010
FY2012
Recurrent
2015-03-24
FY2013R
FY2014P
Capital
21
100
80
24.1
60
3.1
40
8.4
4.9
3.5
3.3
20
0.6
2.0
2.2
Nov
Dec
6.6
5.0
Apr
May
0.1
0
Aug-13
Sep
Oct
Recurrent
2015-03-24
Jan-14
Feb
Capital
Mar
Jun
Jul
Financing
22
2015-03-24
23
2015-03-24
Innovation
Business
sophistication
Market size
Technological
readiness
Financial market
development
Minimum
Labor market
efficiency
Goods market
efficiency
Maximum
Higher education
and training
Macroeconomic
environment
Infrastructure
Institutions
GCI 2014-2015
More competitive
24
25
Structural issues
Limited capacity of line ministries (planning & implementation)
Lack of strong pipeline of projects ready for implementation
Legislation hurdles (procurement & processes)
Detailed design
Land acquisition
Project staff and offices
Procurement plans
Weak contractors capacity & construction management
Political instability
Poor quality at entry affects budget allocation efficiency as well
2015-03-24
26
2015-03-24
27
4.6
5.1
Inflation
7.7
7.3
2.7
3.5
THANK YOU!
2015-03-24
28