Homework 6 - Suggested Problems 2005 - Solutions

1. The population is the integers from 1 to 20.

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20}.
A = {1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 16, 18, 19} B = {2, 4, 5, 7, 13, 16} C = {2, 6, 9, 12, 15, 16, 17, 18}
(a) Draw the Venn Diagram of this sample space and events A, B, C.

A B

1, 3, 19 4, 5, 7, 13

16

6, 9, 12, 18 2

15, 17 8, 10, 11, 14, 20

(b) Find the following sets:

i. Ac
Ac is all of the points in the sample space, S, which are not also in A.

Ac = {2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 20}

T
ii. A B
T
A B is all the points that are in both A and B.
\
A B = {16}
S
iii. A B
S
A B is all of the points that are in either A or B.
[
A B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 12, 13, 16, 18, 19}
T T
iv. A B C
T T
A B C is all the points that are in A and B and C.
\ \ \ \ \
A B C = (A B) C = {16} C = {16}
S S
v. A B C
S S
A B C is all of the points that are in either A or B or C.
[ [ [ [ [
A B C = (A B) C = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 12, 13, 16, 18, 19} C
= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19}

Leah Jager, Department of Statistics, University of Washington, 2005 1

 vi. (A B)c
T

(A B)c is all of the points that aren’t in A B.

T T
\
(A B)c = {16}c = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20}

vii. (B C)c
S

(B C)c is the set of all points that aren’t in B C. B C is the set of all points which are
S S S

either in B or in C.
[
B C = {2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17, 18}
[
(B C)c = {2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17, 18}c = {1, 3, 8, 10, 11, 14, 19, 20}

2. Flipping coins:
(a) Write out the sample space for flipping two coins and rolling one die.
Let H designate flipping a head and T designate flipping a tail. Let the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
designate the number rolled. Then the sample space for flipping two coins and rolling one die is
given below (in the order 1st coin, 2nd coin, die):

HH1 HH2 HH3 HH4 HH5 HH6

HT 1 HT 2 HT 3 HT 4 HT 5 HT 6
T H1 T H2 T H3 T H4 T H5 T H6
TT1 TT2 TT3 TT4 TT5 TT6

(b) What is the probability of seeing 2 heads? an even number? at least 1 head and an odd number?
Looking at the sample space above to find the probabilities. The probability of seeing 2 heads is
# of elements in the sample space with 2 heads 6
P (2 heads) = = = 0.25.
total # of elements in the sample space 24
The probability of seeing an even number is
# of elements in the sample space with an even number 12
P (even number) = = = 0.5.
total # of elements in the sample space 24
The probability of seeing at least 1 head and an odd number is

P (at least 1 head, odd number) = P (1 head, odd number) + P (2 heads, odd number)
# of elements in the sample space with 1 head, odd number
=
total # of elements in the sample space
# of elements in the sample space with 2 heads,odd number
+
total # of elements in the sample space
6 3 9
= + = = 0.375.
24 24 24
Another way to look at this problem is as
# elements in the sample space with at least 1 head, odd #
P (at least 1 head, odd number) =
total # elements in the sample space
9
= = 0.375.
24

Leah Jager, Department of Statistics, University of Washington, 2005 2

3. Picking Cards:
(a) What is the probability of picking a heart?
# of cards that are ♥s in a deck 13
P (♥) = = = 0.25
total # of cards in a deck 52
(b) What is the probability of picking a heart or a 6?
# of cards that are ♥s or 6s in a deck 13 (♥s) + 3 (additional 6s) 16
P (♥ or 6) = = = = 0.3077
total # of cards in a deck 52 52
(c) What is the probability of picking a club and a 10?
# of cards that are both ♣s and 10s in a deck 1 (10 of ♣s) 1
P (♣ and 10) = = = = 0.0192
total # of cards in a deck 52 52
(d) What is the probability of picking a spade or a J or a Q?
# of cards that are ♠s or Js or Qs in a deck
P (♠ or J or Q) =
total # of cards in a deck
13 (♠s) + 3 (additional Js) + 3 (additional Qs) 19
= = = 0.3654
52 52
4. Back to the General Social Survey. Below is the table for Religion and Voting.

Religion/Vote Republican Democrat Other Nonvoter

F.P. 0.121 0.116 0.034 0.062
M.P. 0.042 0.053 0.020 0.021
L.P. 0.065 0.061 0.030 0.014
Cath 0.082 0.090 0.039 0.037
Jewish 0.005 0.016 0.002 0.003
Other 0.013 0.037 0.017 0.020

(a) What is the probability of being Jewish and a Republican?

This probability is just the percentage of Jewish Republicans. So

P (Jewish & Republican) = 0.005.

(b) Given that you voted Democrat, what is the probability of being Catholic?
There are two ways to think about this problem. The first restricts the sample space. Given that
you voted Democrat, you only need to look at the column for Democrats. Then look at the
proportion of the Democrates who are Catholic. That is,
percentage of Catholic Democrats
P (Catholic | Democrat) =
percentage of all Democrats
0.090 0.090
= = = 0.2413.
0.116 + 0.053 + 0.061 + 0.090 + 0.016 + 0.037 0.373

Leah Jager, Department of Statistics, University of Washington, 2005 3

 The second way to look at this problem uses the Conditional Probability Rule. The Conditional
Probability Rule says that for events A and B
P (A and B)
P (A | B) = .
P (B)
In this case, event A is being Catholic and event B is voting Democrat. So
P (Catholic and Democrat)
P (Catholic | Democrat) = .
P (Democrat)
P (Catholics and Democrat) = 0.090 (the percentage of Catholic Democrats).
P (Democrat) = 0.116 + 0.053 + 0.061 + 0.090 + 0.016 + 0.037 = 0.373 (the percentage of all
Democrats). So
0.090
P (Catholic | Democrat) = = 0.2413.
0.373
(c) Given that you’re Protestant, what is the probability that you didn’t vote?
Again, there are two ways to think about this problem. First, restrict the sample space to look only
at those who are Protestant (since that is the given information). Then look at the proportion of
Protestants who didn’t vote. Since Protestants encompasses the F.P., M.P., and L.P. groups, first we
find the percentage of those who are protestant. That is,

P (Protestant) = P (F.P.) + P (M.P.) + P (L.P.)

= (0.121 + 0.116 + 0.034 + 0.062) + (0.042 + 0.053 + 0.020 + 0.021)
+(0.065 + 0.061 + 0.030 + 0.014) = 0.639.

So then
percentage of Protestant non-voters
P (did not vote | Protestant) =
percentage of all Protestants
0.062 + 0.021 + 0.014 0.097
= = = 0.1518.
0.639 0.639
The second way to look at this problem uses the Conditional Probability Rule. The Conditional
Probability Rule says that for events A and B
P (A and B)
P (A | B) = .
P (B)
In this case, event A is not voting and event B is being Protestant. So
P (did not vote and Protestant )
P (did not vote | Protestant) = .
P (Protestant)
P (did not vote and Protestant) = 0.062 + 0.021 + 0.014 = 0.097 (the percentage of Protestant
non-voters). P (Protestant) = 0.639 (the percentage of Protestants). So
0.097
P (Jewish | did not vote) = = 0.1518.
0.639

Leah Jager, Department of Statistics, University of Washington, 2005 4