AIAA 20014540

A SURVEY OF SERVICEABLE
SPACECRAFT FAILURES
Brook R. Sullivan and David L. Akin
University of Maryland Space Systems Laboratory, College Park, MD 20742
This paper summarizes a survey of on-orbit spacecraft failures since 1981. A preliminary assessment of telerobotic serviceability is also included. A comprehensive
database of spacecraft launch attempts and failures was compiled from a number of
open sources. The main focus of the analysis is the categorization of earth orbiting
commercial, military, and scientic satellites which suered from signicant on-orbit
failures. To characterize the telerobotic servicing opportunities, additional technical
and economic information was also developed. Each of the candidate spacecraft failures was evaluated against a series of increasingly capable telerobotic servicer types.
This analysis should enable better understanding of future applications of servicing,
requirements for on-orbit servicing operations, eects of servicing on spacecraft mission assurance, and the overall question of the economic viability of on-orbit servicing.
It is expected that this survey of historical failures will provide a useful starting point
for future evaluations of on-orbit servicing mission models and servicing architectures.

Acronyms & Abbreviations

Avg
BOL
COSPAR
ETS
FTO
ISS
JEM
MFD
MSS
NASA
NGO
NORAD
Pct
RMS
ROTEX
RTSX
SRMS
SSRMS
TSX
Yr

Introduction
Future on-orbit telerobotic systems will be able
provide a number of spacecraft services including onorbit assembly, inspection, reboost, reconguration,
refuel, repair, resupply, and upgrade. Prospects
for on-orbit telerobotic satellite servicing are increasing steadily. A number of robotic systems
have own successfully both in research (ROTEX,1
MFD,2 ETS-VII,3 AerCAM4 ) and operational roles
(SRMS,5 SSRMS6 ). Systems with expanded capabilities (ISS-MSS,7 JEM-RMS,8 Ranger TSX,9 Robonaut,10 Orbital Express11 ) are in development and
should see deployment in the near term.
Many of these telerobotic systems are ISS related,
but other servicing opportunities exist. More than
100 spacecraft are launched every year. Most of
these perform their missions with no major problems. A number experience anomalies and failures
of various degrees of severity. In order to quantify
these annual failure related servicing opportunities,
a database of satellite failure events was constructed.
Examination of the database shows that servicing
opportunities occur on a regular basis.

Average
Beginning Of Life
Committee on Space Research
Engineering Test Satellite
Failed To Orbit
International Space Station
Japanese Experiment Module
Manipulator Flight Demonstration
Mobile Servicing System
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration
Non-Governmental Organization
North American Aerospace Defense
Command
Percent
Remote Manipulator System
Robotic Technology Experiment
Ranger TSX
Shuttle RMS
Space Station RMS
Telerobotic Shuttle Experiment
Year

Database Development
Doctor

of Philosophy Candidate, AIAA Student Member

Associate Professor, Department of Aerospace Engineering and the Institute for Systems Research, AIAA Senior
Member
c 2001 by the University of Maryland Space SysCopyright

tems Laboratory, Brook R. Sullivan, and David L. Akin. Published by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics,
Inc. with permission.

Three databases were constructed, including

Satellite Information, Orbital Information, and Failure Information. The Satellite Information database
includes launch information, spacecraft bus parameters, transponder counts, launch costs, spacecraft
costs, and other satellite specic information. The

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American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Paper 20014540

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
21
22
23
24
25
26

Source
Aerospace Source Book12
Dowa Insurance13
Group Task Force Report14
INTEC Study15
Isakowitz16
ISIR17
Satellite News Digest18
Stockwell19
Waltz20
JSR GEO Info21
Celestrak TLEs22
NSSDC Satellite Situation Report23
Aerospace Source Book12
Celestrak Satellite Catalog22
Hibbard24
Hughes25
Intelsat26
Isakowtiz16
Jonathans Space Report21
Mission Spacecraft Library27
NSSDC Master Catalog23
PanAmSat28
Satellite Today Database29
AGI Spacecraft Digest30
The Satellite Encyclopedia31
Table 1

1
2
3

Databases
Satellite Information
Orbital Information
Failure Information
Table 2

Records
5,774
5,394
854

Earliest
1998
1984
1970
1980
1958
1993
1991
1977
1977
1963
1962
1957
1984
1957
1976
1963
1980
1965
1957
1957
1957
1985
1980
1960
1957

Latest
2000
1996
1991
1990
1999
1999
1999
1988
1988
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
1990
2000
1998
1999
2000
1997
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000

Records
31
24
47
22
346
85
26
26
16
640
802
26,691
672
5,383
125
195
30
2,967
6,407
5,107
5,604
22
247
595
2,043

Fields
14
7
8
7
9
7
13
9
7
17
11
12
23
7
14
11
15
21
11
19
16
17
8
24
64

Content
Failure Info
Failure Info
Failure Info
Failure Info
Failure Info
Failure Info
Failure Info
Failure Info
Failure Info
GEO Sat Info
Orbit Info
Orbit Info
Satellite Info
Satellite Info
Satellite Info
Satellite Info
Satellite Info
Satellite Info
Satellite Info
Satellite Info
Satellite Info
Satellite Info
Satellite Info
Satellite Info
Satellite Info

Satellite Database Sources

Fields
73
37
38

Sample ID
1900-001A
1900-001A.01

Databases

Orbital Information database includes spacecraft orbital elements from a variety of sources and epochs.
The Failure Information database includes failure
type, date, level, description, insurance claim, and
other failure related details. Each database record
includes references to the sources from which it was
derived.
The key eld for these databases is based on the
COSPAR international identier. An extension of
this naming scheme was developed to keep track
of payloads that failed to separate and satellites on
launches that failed to orbit. For the Satellite Failures database an additional sux was added to the
satellite identier to indicate satellite failure events
in chronological order.
The various sources for the Satellite Information database included dierent means of identifying satellites. While the international identier

Where
1900
001
A
.01

Meaning
Successful Launch, Payload A
(Standard COSPAR Identier)
Successful Launch,
Payload Failed to Separate,
Payload Component .01
Launch Year
Launch identier
Payload identier
Payload Component identier

Table 3
Identication Scheme for Successful
Launches

(COSPAR) was used by many of the data sources,

the NORAD ID was used by others. Still others
sources used only the satellite name, which varied widely. To compound this unique identier issue, there is no standard identication scheme for
launches that failed to orbit. Nor is there a standard
method to call out payloads that failed to separate. To meet these needs, the identication schemes
shown in Table 3 and Table 4 were adopted.

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American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Paper 20014540

Sample ID
FTO-1900-12-01
FTO-1900-12-01.01
FTO-1900-12-01A
FTO-1900-12-01A.01
Where
FTO
1900
12
01
A
01
Table 4

Meaning
Single Payload Failed To Orbit
Multiple Payload Launch Failed To Orbit
Multiple Rockets With Single Payloads Failed on same date
Multiple Rockets With Multiple Payloads Failed on same date
Failed To Orbit
Launch Year
Launch Month
Launch Day
Dierentiates rockets that failed on the same launch date
Identier for payloads that failed to separate

Identication Scheme for Missions that Failed To Orbit

The databases were constructed from a number

of open sources. These are shown in Table 1. This
table shows the source, the year of the earliest information, the year of the latest information, the
number of records, the number of elds, and the content or focus of the source. Additional sources3235
were used to cross check in a number of cases.
The record and eld counts of the nal databases
are shown in Table 2. The databases include all
civilian, military, commercial, and NGO spacecraft
launched from 1957 through 2000. A number of
United States and Russian reconnaissance related
subsatellites were omitted.

Launches and Payloads

Table 5 is a summary of Launches and Payloads
from 1981 through 2000. The rst two columns
indicate the year and the number of launches attempted. Vehicle explosions on the launch pad and
other ground damage events were not included in
launch attempts. The Failed To Orbit column
includes launch vehicles that left the pad, but did
not reach orbit. Failures modes here include self
destruct, commanded destruction by Range Safety,
inight breakup, and low launch vehicle performance
resulting in suborbital ight. Launches that successfully made it to orbit are listed in the next column.
Launch vehicles often carry multiple payloads, and
the yearly totals of these successful payloads are
indicated in the Payloads To Orbit column. Upper stages, fairings, and other launch vehicle orbital
debris are not included. Of the spacecraft that arrived in orbit, some were ltered out of the set of
payloads of interest. Filtered satellites include Amateur Radio satellites, ASAT related payloads, human
spaceight vehicles, satellites that exploded in orbit,
spacecraft beyond earth orbit, simulated satellite
test masses, and others. After ltering out these
spacecraft, the nal column includes the remaining

Payloads Of Interest. These will serve as a basis

for the various BOL satellite failure rates developed
later.
This table and the subsequent failure tables include totals and annual averages for the last 20,
the last 10, and the last 5 years. These three sets
of gures are presented to illustrate trends. Overall, launches per year are trending down, while the
payloads to orbit have decreased but are trending
back up. Part of the reason for the payloads-to-orbit
surge in 1997 and 1998 was the deployment of the
Iridium constellation. Iridium satellites launched in
groups of 2, 5, or 7, depending if they were on Long
March, Delta II, or Proton rockets. This table also
includes a percent chance for a launch attempt to fail
to orbit. This percentage has increased from 3.7%
to 4.9%.

BOL Failures
Satellite failures occurring in the rst 30 mission
days were considered beginning of life (BOL) failures. A summary of these is shown in Table 6.
The columns in this table include the launch year,
the number of payloads of interest, the number of
satellites that experienced BOL total failures, the
number of satellites that experienced BOL partial
failures, and the combined total. Satellites experiencing total failure had no productive life. Satellites
with partial failures were able to perform at least
part of their missions. The cause of the surge in
failures for the late 1990s is unclear. Part of the explanation could be that detailed information on the
recent launches is more readily available. Note that
for successfully launched satellites, there is a 3% to
4% chance of BOL total failure and an additional
3% to 4% chance of BOL partial failure.
The BOL case is of particular interest, because
these spacecraft have produced no return and are at

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American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Paper 20014540

Year
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
20 Yr
Total
Avg
Pct
10 Yr
Total
Avg
Pct
5 Yr
Total
Avg
Pct

Launch
Attempts
126
129
128
129
125
110
114
121
102
121
91
97
83
93
80
77
89
82
78
85

Failed To
Orbit
3
8
1
0
4
7
4
5
1
5
3
2
4
4
6
4
3
5
5
3

Successful
Launches
123
121
127
129
121
103
110
116
101
116
88
95
79
89
74
73
86
77
73
82

Payloads
To Orbit
162
152
160
170
170
144
140
149
138
172
142
132
113
130
113
107
156
173
131
125

Filtered
24
25
15
21
24
16
17
21
16
29
16
18
22
31
32
25
22
33
15
26

Payloads Of
Interest
138
127
145
149
146
128
123
128
122
143
126
114
91
99
81
82
134
140
116
99

2,060
103

77
3.9
3.70%

1,983
99.2

2,879
144

448
22.4

2,431
121.6

855
85.5

39
3.9
4.60%

816
81.6

1,322
132.2

240
24

1,082
108.2

411
82.2

20
4
4.90%

391
78.2

692
138.4

121
24.2

571
114.2

Table 5

Launches and Payloads

the beginning of their design life. A low cost servicing mission to one of these vehicles would produce
the longest payback period. Conversely, if the satellite failed with little or no nominal telemetry, the
prospects for salvage may be somewhat dim. This
table shows that 5 to 10 BOL failures can be expected per year. The breakout of which type of
failures are occurring is presented in the next section.

vicing opportunities, ranging from the low case (only

total failures) to the high case (all failures).

Failure Breakouts

The information available to ascertain the severity

of partial failures varied considerably. In some cases
specic quantitative information was reported, such
as a reduction in transponders available, or expenditure of a known fraction of lifetime maneuvering
fuel to complete the transfer to geostationary orbit.
Other cases simply reported the impact as minor,
partial, or major with little technical detail.

Table 7 and Table 8 summarize the annual occurrence of satellite failure types. Table 7 addresses
only total failures, while Table 8 addresses both total and partial failures. These two tables provide a
bound on the number of annual failure related ser-

Both of the breakout tables include the failure

year, the newly launched payloads of interest, the
payloads that were placed in incorrect orbits, BOL
failures, midlife failures, and the yearly total servicing opportunities. Mechanism failures include

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American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Paper 20014540

Payloads

BOL

BOL

BOL

Of

Total

Partial

Combined

Year

Interest

Failures

Failures

Failures

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
20 Yr
Total
Avg
Pct
10 Yr
Total
Avg
Pct
5 Yr
Total
Avg
Pct

138
127
145
149
146
128
123
128
122
143
126
114
91
99
81
82
134
140
116
99

2
4
0
5
3
1
5
4
1
5
3
0
3
0
3
7
5
3
7
1

0
0
2
1
0
0
0
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
4
5
14
3
2

2
4
2
6
3
1
5
6
2
7
4
1
4
2
4
11
10
17
10
3

2,431
121.6

62
3.1
2.6%

42
2.1
1.7%

104
5.2
4.3%

1,082
108.2

32
3.2
3.0%

34
3.4
3.1%

66
6.6
6.1%

571
114.2

23
4.6
4.0%

28
5.6
4.9%

51
10.2
8.9%

Table 6

to 20 opportunities per year for the near term.

Servicing Opportunities
Determining the mission requirements for an onorbit servicing system is a complex process. A number of approaches are conceivable. For this preliminary analysis, four servicer types were considered,
ranging from simple to complex. The four types are
inspection only, reboost only, basic dexterous, and
complex dexterous.
For the inspection only case, all of the unknown
failure events were assigned. AerCAM is an example
of an inspection-only servicer which has been demonstrated on-orbit. A reboost vehicle, or Boost as it
shown in Table 9, would complete the orbital transfer of the low orbit spacecraft. Its mission would be
rendezvous, inspection, docking, reboost, and separation. The next section includes a quick look
at a specic reboost mission. The Dex or basic
dexterous servicer would attempt to repair external
mechanism failure cases. Finally, the complex dexterous servicer would handle the remaining missions.
A free ight version of Ranger TSX is an example of
this type of servicer.
A summary of the results of this approach is
shown in Table 9. Again, there is the familiar surge
in the late 1990s. Note that the reboost case and
the complex dexterous case occur almost every year.
The inspection vehicle case can also be augmented
by using it for preliminary assessment before a more
capable servicer is dispatched. The capability breakpoint between a basic and complex dexterous servicer appears to need additional renement.

Reboost Servicing Example

BOL Failures

events such as separation failures (failure to separate

from the upper stage or from a co-manifested spacecraft), solar arrays deployment failures, and antenna
deployment failures. Component failures include
transponder failures, spacecraft control processor
failures, and payload instrument failures. Other failures include damage from collision (typically with
fairings or upper stages), software errors, operations
errors, and inadvertent consumables depletion.
An examination of these tables shows that
there are regularly occurring servicing opportunities.
Again, there is an increase in occurrences in the late
1990s that bears further investigation. Part of the
reason is probably improved reporting. In any case,
a reasonable servicer trac model might include 10

The economic aspects of on-orbit servicing include

trading the cost of a servicing mission versus replacing the failed satellite. Servicer costs such as development, manufacturing, launch, and operations
must be traded against potential returns from the
serviced satellite. These returns can take the form
of revenue, scientic data, or continued on-orbit capability.
For example, the Orion 3 geostationary commercial communications satellite failed to achieve operational status during the Spring of 1999. On May
4th the satellite was placed in an incorrect orbit due
to a Delta III launch failure. The second burn of the
second stage was prematurely terminated after 1 of
ring. The reported costs included the satellite cost
of $150M and a launch cost of $80M. The satellite
was declared a total loss, and the insurance payout
was $265M.

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American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Paper 20014540

Payloads

BOL

BOL

BOL

BOL

Midlife

Midlife

Of

Low

Mechanism

Component

Unknown

Other

Component

Unknown

Other

All

Year

Interest

Orbit

Failure

Failure

Failure

Failure

Failure

Failure

Failure

Failures

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
20 Yr
Total
Avg
10 Yr
Total
Avg
5 Yr
Total
Avg

138
127
145
149
146
128
123
128
122
143
126
114
91
99
81
82
134
140
116
99

1
1
0
4
2
1
4
4
1
1
1
0
2
0
1
3
2
0
3
1

0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
0
0
0

0
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
0

0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
1
0
0
1
2
2
1
0

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0

0
0
0
1
1
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
3
5
5
1
3

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
2
0
0
5
2
0

0
1
0
0
2
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
6
3
8
4
6

2
5
0
6
6
2
5
6
2
7
4
2
5
1
7
16
13
21
14
10

2,431
121.6

32
1.6

7
0.4

8
0.4

11
0.6

4
0.2

23
1.2

12
0.6

37
1.9

134
6.7

1,082
108.2

13
1.3

4
0.4

5
0.5

7
0.7

3
0.3

19
1.9

11
1.1

31
3.1

93
9.3

571
114.2

9
1.8

3
0.6

3
0.6

6
1.2

2
0.4

17
3.4

7
1.4

27
5.4

74
14.8

Table 7

Satellite Failure Breakout, Total Failures Only

Orion 3 had 10 C-band and 33 Ku-band transponders and was intended to provide voice, data and
Internet service to Hawaii and the Asia-Pacic region. The design life for the spacecraft, a Hughes
HS 601HP, was 15 years, and a typical revenue per
transponder is $1M/year. This implies that Orion
3 could have been grossing on the order of $43M
per year. By abandoning the satellite, a potential
revenue stream of $645M over 15 years was also
abandoned.
Mounting a telerobotic salvage mission would have
entailed launching a reboost servicer with the ability
to attach a new upper stage to the otherwise fully
functional Orion 3. No other repairs would have
been required. In order to transfer the 4,300 kg satellite from its 29.1deg inclined orbit of 421 x 1,294 km
to geostationary orbit, a very capable upper stage
would have been required. A notional servicer could

include an upper stage, a spacecraft bus, and RTSX.

Although not yet conrmed by detailed analysis, it
seems likely that a servicing mission could be conducted for considerably less than $645M.

Conclusion
The satellite failure rates derived from the
database indicate that there are regularly occurring
opportunities for satellite servicing missions. Given
these regular opportunities and the possible returns
from a salvage mission, it seems probable that telerobotic on-orbit spacecraft servicing will become a viable option as the cost of servicing options decreases
and the robustness of servicing system designs increases.
It is important to note that this analysis only addresses failure related servicing. There are a number
of other promising areas interest. On-orbit refueling

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American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Paper 20014540

Payloads

BOL

BOL

BOL

BOL

Midlife

Midlife

Of

Low

Mechanism

Component

Unknown

Other

Component

Unknown

Other

All

Year

Interest

Orbit

Failure

Failure

Failure

Failure

Failure

Failure

Failure

Failures

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
20 Yr
Total
Avg
10 Yr
Total
Avg
5 Yr
Total
Avg

138
127
145
149
146
128
123
128
122
143
126
114
91
99
81
82
134
140
116
99

1
1
1
5
2
1
4
5
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
4
4
7
3
1

0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
3
2
3
1
1

0
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
2
3
2
0

0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
1
0
0
2
2
4
2
0

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
2
1

0
1
0
2
1
1
0
2
1
0
1
1
2
2
4
5
15
20
6
8

0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
2
0
0
5
2
0

0
1
1
0
2
1
0
0
2
2
2
1
2
1
2
6
4
11
7
8

2
6
3
8
7
3
5
8
5
10
7
4
8
6
12
22
29
53
25
19

2,431
121.6

52
2.6

15
0.8

15
0.8

16
0.8

6
0.3

72
3.6

13
0.7

53
2.7

242
12.1

1,082
108.2

28
2.8

12
1.2

10
1.0

11
1.1

5
0.5

64
6.4

11
1.1

44
4.4

185
18.5

571
114.2

19
3.8

10
2.0

8
1.6

10
2.0

4
0.8

54
10.8

7
1.4

36
7.2

148
29.6

Table 8

Satellite Failure Breakout, Total and Partial Failures

represents another substantial class of opportunities,

as seen in Hibbards24 1996 analysis. Pre-planned
on-orbit upgrades were investigated by Leisman36 in
2000 . Additionally, a version of the reboost servicer
could be used to perform the retirement maneuver
for a geostationary satellite, allowing it to expend all
of its maneuvering fuel for lifetime stationkeeping.
It is anticipated that this database will be useful
for a variety of analyses. The goals include a more
detailed analytical examination of the database to
yield a comprehensive view of the technical and
economic feasibility of telerobotic on-orbit satellite
servicing.

Acknowledgments
This research is supported as part of the Ranger
Telerobotic Shuttle Experiment (NCC5-243), which
is funded by the Space Telerobotics Program of

the NASA Headquarters Oce of Space Science,

Advanced Technology & Mission Studies Division
(Code SM).

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Inspect

Complex

Servicing

Year

Only

Boost

Dex

Dex

Opportunity

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
20 Yr
Total
Avg
10 Yr
Total
Avg
5 Yr
Total
Avg

0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
5
0
1
1
1
2
2
2
9
4
0

1
1
1
5
2
1
4
5
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
4
4
7
3
1

0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
3
2
3
1
1

1
3
2
3
4
2
0
3
3
2
5
2
4
3
7
13
21
34
17
17

2
6
3
8
7
3
5
8
5
10
7
4
8
6
12
22
29
53
25
19

29
1.5

52
2.6

15
0.8

146
7.3

242
12.1

22
2.2

28
2.8

12
1.2

123
12.3

185
18.5

17
3.4

19
3.8

10
2.0

102
20.4

148
29.6

Table 9

Servicer Opportunities

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