Gold Sector

September 3, 2014

Mid-term Report Card; Digesting Sector Cost Trends in 1H14

Company

Ticker Rating Risk

(1)

Senior Producers
Barrick Gold Corp.
ABX
Goldcorp Inc.
G
Kinross Gold Corp.
K
Intermediate Producers
Agnico-Eagle
AEM
Eldorado Gold Corp.
ELD
IAMGOLD Corp.
IMG
New Gold Inc.
NGD
Detour Gold Corp.
DGC
Randgold Resources
GOLD
Yamana Gold Inc.
YRI
Junior Producers
Alamos Gold Inc.
AuRico Gold Inc.
B2Gold Corp.
Dundee Precious Metals
Kirkland Lake Gold
Marlin Gold Mining Ltd.
Perseus Mining Ltd.
Primero Mining
Timmins Gold Corp.
Developers/Explorecos
Belo Sun Mining
Continental Gold Ltd.
Premier Gold Mines Ltd.
Torex Gold Resources
Royalty
Osisko Gold Royalties

Target
Price

Analyst
(2)

N
N
B

High
High
High

$24.00
$33.00
$5.00

JW
JW
JW

B
N
S
B
N
B
S

High
$47.00
High
$8.50
High
$3.75
High
$7.50
High
$15.00
High US$100.00
High
$8.00

JW
JW
JW
JW
JF
JW
JW

AGI
AUQ
BTO
DPM
KGI
MLN
PRU
P
TMM

N
N
B
NR
B
B
N
B
B

High
High
High
N/A
High
Spec
High
High
High

$11.00
$5.25
$3.75
N/A
$5.25
$1.70
$0.45
$9.50
$2.50

JW
JF
JF
JW
JF
JF
JW
JF
JF

BSX
CNL
PG
TXG

B
B
B
B

Spec
Spec
Spec
Spec

$0.50
$6.00
$4.25
$2.00

JF
JF
JF
JW

OR

High

$14.50

JF

Year over year to September 1, the XAU gold index has decreased by 1%,
comparing favourably to the prior year's 39% plunge. Although equity prices
are largely unchanged from one year prior, material underlying corporate shifts
have evolved in 1H14, analyzed on page 2-5. A review of 2Q results, guidance,
and upcoming catalysts is provided on pages 6-12.

1H Fully Loaded Costs Down $228/oz, Predominantly Due to Capex Cuts

In conjunction with gold's precipitous decline in 2013, gold companies

have realized material cost savings in 1H14, both from active cost cutting
and from mine optimization and sequencing to accelerate cash flow.

In 1H14, implied costs by cash flow statements were $1,195/oz for

companies under coverage, a considerable $228/oz decrease from 1H13's
$1,423/oz. Compared to average gold prices over the same period,
margins have been stable at 7% (from $101/oz in 1H13 to $96/oz in 1H14).

Of the $228/oz reduction in 1H costs, an overwhelming 75% of savings can

be explained by $171/oz from reductions in sustaining capex. Other factors
include savings of $53/oz from processing higher grade ore and $27/oz
from lower taxes, offset by $38/oz from higher per tonne unit costs.

Companies which have demonstrated the greatest cost improvement in

1H14 compared to 1H13 include IAMGOLD and Kinross, while those which
have demonstrated the least improvement include Alamos and Primero.
The lowest 1H14 cost producers have been Eldorado and Randgold, while
the highest have been AuRico and Perseus.

(1) B - Buy, N - Neutral, S - Sell, NR- Not Rated. Refer to

disclosures for more information.
(2) JF - Joe Fazzini, JW -Josh Wolfson.

2Q Yields Lower Earnings, 2H Guidance Updates & Upcoming Catalysts

In 2Q14, companies under coverage reported earnings which decreased

54% year-over-year, largely explained by 9% lower gold prices and 3%
higher total cash costs, offset by 1% higher production.

Of the 17 producing companies which reported CY2Q14 earnings, 3

companies reported revised guidance which was stronger (Agnico Eagle,
Barrick, and Eldorado), and 3 companies reported weaker revised
guidance (Detour, DPM, and Yamana). To achieve guidance, 9/17
companies are required to report a stronger 2H than 1H. While seasonal
trends and mine ramp-ups explain a portion of this, we see the greatest
pressure to deliver better results from Alamos and DPM, and the least
pressure from Timmins, Kinross, AuRico, and Agnico.

Heading into a season of typically busier corporate activity and upcoming

industry conferences, announcements are anticipated to increase.
Companies where we expect meaningful catalysts to be delivered in 2H
include Alamos, B2Gold, Goldcorp, IAMGOLD, Kirkland Lake, and Perseus.

Josh Wolfson, CFA / (416) 350-5045

jwolfson@dundeecapitalmarkets.com
Joseph Fazzini, CPA, CA, CFA/ (647) 428-8248
jfazzini@dundeecapitalmarkets.com
Jon French / (416) 350-3311
jfrench@dundeecapitalmarkets.com
Kent Neale/ (416) 350-3337
kneale@dundeecapitalmarkets.com

Please see Disclosures and Disclaimers at the end of this report.

A division of Dundee Securities Ltd.
Dundee Capital Markets is a registered trademark of Dundee Corporation, used under license.

Gold Sector

September 3, 2014

A CHANGE IN GOLD PRICE HAS BRED FEAR, BUT ALSO OPPORTUNITY

To better understand industry changes, Dundee evaluated gold producers under coverage
which in total operated a combined 86 gold mines that generated output of 10.8 MMoz in
1H14, representing approximately 25% of industry production. When accounting for every
cost of operating a mine which relates to cash flow, costs in 1H14 were $1,195/oz, a $228/oz
decrease from 1H13's $1,423/oz. Overwhelmingly, cost savings have been driven by a
considerable reduction in capital expenditure, resulting in a savings of $171/oz, which can
be explained by lower incentives to invest in operations at lower gold prices as well as some
genuine cost cutting, such as mine optimization. However, this also reflects deferred capital
spending which is likely required to be spent in future periods. Other material factors
affecting cost changes include 8% higher processed grades, resulting in a savings of $53/oz,
and lower cash taxes paid, resulting in a savings of $27/oz. This is partially offset by 5%
higher total per tonne unit costs, resulting in higher costs of $38/oz.

100
38
10

17

Other

Interest Exp.

50

-11

-6

-5

Exploration Exp.

G&A + Share Exp.

Recoveries

0
-27

-50
-53
-100
-150

Per Tonne Costs

Cash Taxes

-171

Grade

-200

Capex

Contribution to Cost Changes (US$/oz)

Changes in Key Items Impacting Fully Loaded Costs from 1H13 to 1H14 (Co-Product)

Source: Company reports, Dundee Capital Markets estimates

Changes in Key Mining Trends from 1H13 to 1H14

1H14 vs. 1H13 Changes

Dundee evaluates costs for

gold producers in an allencompassing manner,
defined as movement of
cash. This is a more
comprehensive metric than
typically quoted AISC. For
details on calculations,
please refer to our June 19
Sector Note

In 2013, the gold price collapsed, having closed the year down 28% to $1,206/oz. With 2013
marking the first annual gold prices decrease in 12 years, reasonable and genuine concerns
emerged related to profitability, growth plans, and even solvency in certain cases. Although
gold prices have yet to materially rebound (currently $1,266/oz, +5% YTD), meaningful
sector changes have occurred to accommodate operating in a lower gold price environment.

10.0%

7.9%

7.5%

5.2%
5.0%
2.5%

-1.4%

0.7%

0.0%
-2.5%

Throughput

Recoveries

Per Tonne Costs

Grade

Source: Company reports, Dundee Capital Markets estimates

DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page | 2

Gold Sector

September 3, 2014

COST REVIEW & OUTLOOK

To avoid relying on inconsistencies included in All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) reporting,
Dundee analyzes reported cash flow statements to better understand the true costs of
production by company and on a basis which is equally comparable. Below we outline the
reported costs of production in 1H14 based on actual reported cash flow information, which
we refer to as Sustaining Production Costs per ounce. Key conclusions we would highlight
include:

The lowest cost producers in 1H14 have been Agnico Eagle, Eldorado, Randgold, and
Timmins, both when accounting for and when excluding the impact of working capital
adjustments.

AuRico, IAMGOLD, Perseus, and Primero have been the highest cost producers over
this period, before working capital changes.

Of the 17 companies which have reported financial results, 13 reported costs in 2H14
which were lower than in 1H13, while 3 reported costs that were higher. The greatest
demonstrated cost improvement in 1H14 from 1H13 has been realized by Kinross,
Eldorado, and New Gold, all three of which are due to declining capital spending at
operations. The greatest cost increase has occurred at Alamos (higher costs attributable
to underground mining transition) and Primero (inclusion of higher cost Black Fox
operations).

Sustaining Production Costs Per Ounce 1H14 (Co-Product)

Sustaining cash flow,
defined as cash flow from
operations, less a more
inclusive definition of capital
expenditure, provides the
most accurate
representation of costs in
terms of cash movement for
gold companies.

Company

Sustaining Production Cost

Before Working Capital

Company

Sustaining Production Cost

After Working Capital

Working
Capital

1 Eldorado
2 Randgold

969
1,001

1 Agnico
2 Timmins

941
1,088

151
1

3 Timmins
4 Agnico
5 New Gold

1,089
1,092
1,136

3 Eldorado
4 Randgold
5 Goldcorp

1,101
1,126
1,152

(132)
(125)
(12)

6 Goldcorp
7 Barrick

1,140
1,203

6 New Gold
7 Kinross

1,202
1,242

(66)
(2)

8 Alamos
9 Kinross
10 B2Gold

1,208
1,239
1,252

8 Barrick
9 DPM
10 Alamos

1,318
1,326
1,377

(116)
(57)
(169)

11 DPM
12 Detour Gold

1,269
1,313

11 Yamana
12 IAMGOLD

1,386
1,407

(57)
(23)

13 Yamana
14 IAMGOLD

1,328
1,384

13 B2Gold
14 Perseus

1,414
1,426

(162)
27

15 Primero
16 Perseus
17 AuRico

1,414
1,453
1,583

15 Detour Gold
16 AuRico
17 Primero

1,534
1,661
1,692

(221)
45
(278)

18 Kirkland Lake

n/a

18 Kirkland Lake

n/a

n/a

Kirkland Lake has not yet reported financial results for CY2Q14.

Source: Company reports, Dundee Capital Markets estimates

DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page | 3

Gold Sector

September 3, 2014

Sustaining Production Costs per Ounce (Co-Product), Sorted By 1H14 - 1H13 vs. 1H14
$2,000

Overall, companies have

been successful in reducing
1H14 sustaining production
costs per ounce from 1H13.

$1,800
$1,600

Costs (US$/oz)

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800

$600
$400
$200
$0

ELD GOLD TMM AEM NGD

ABX

AGI

1H13 Costs

BTO DPM DGC

YRI

IMG

PRU AUQ

1H14 Costs

Source: Company reports, Dundee Capital Markets estimates

Sustaining Production Cost Variance - 1H13 vs. 1H14 (Co-Product)

$300

Variance Per Oz (US$/oz)

$200

$100

$0
IMG

TMM

AEM

DPM GOLD NGD

ELD

PRU

ABX

YRI

BTO

AUQ

AGI

-$100

-$200

-$300

-$400

Source: Company reports, Dundee Capital Markets estimates

DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page | 4

Gold Sector

September 3, 2014

Calculating a Sustaining Production Cost estimate is useful to determine actual historical

reported costs. To forecast future cost figures, Dundee utilizes an estimate called Fully
Loaded Costs. Fully Loaded costs seek to accurately forecast the true free cash flow
generation of a company's operating asset base. This figure incorporates all cash flowrelated costs of production matched with the operating assets over that period, but
excludes the impact of growth capital expenditure related strictly to new project
development which contributes to growth. This method results in figures which are accurate
and consistent, while also being comparable across our coverage universe.
Below we exhibit our Fully Loaded cost forecasts by company under coverage. Based on a
Fully Loaded cost analysis, Dundee forecasts an improvement in costs under coverage, from
$1,310/oz in 2013 to $1,190/oz in 2014 and $1,182/oz in 2015. Key conclusions we would
highlight include:

The lowest cost producers over the 2014-2015 period are forecast to be Randgold,
Goldcorp, B2Gold, Eldorado, and Agnico Eagle.

The highest cost producers over the 2014-2015 period are forecast to be Kirkland Lake,
IAMGOLD, AuRico, Detour Gold, and Perseus.

We forecast that the greatest cost improvement over the 2013 to 2015 period will be
delivered by Detour, AuRico, Kirkland Lake, and Perseus, while we forecast that the
least cost improvement will be delivered by Alamos, Goldcorp and Timmins.

Dundee Fully-Loaded Costs 2013-2015 (Co-product), Sorted by 2015 - At Spot Gold

$2,000
2013

2014

2015

Co Product Fully-Loaded Costs (US$/oz)

$1,750

$1,500

$1,250

$1,000

$750

$500

$250

$0

GOLD BTO
DPM NGD
G
YRI
AEM
P
AUQ
AGI
ELD
ABX
TMM
2013 $1,126 $1,173 $1,346 $1,302 $1,089 $1,317 $1,211 $1,264 $1,663 $1,053 $1,301 $1,293 $1,252

MLN
$0

K
PRU
$1,518 $1,602

DGC
$0

IMG
KGI
$1,625 $2,218

2014 $1,009 $1,194 $1,268 $1,256 $1,029 $1,235 $1,178 $1,291 $1,419 $1,209 $1,060 $1,243 $1,123 $1,186 $1,209 $1,439 $1,400 $1,277 $1,765
2015 $938 $1,045 $1,103 $1,133 $1,146 $1,149 $1,162 $1,171 $1,200 $1,202 $1,211 $1,216 $1,227 $1,247 $1,271 $1,276 $1,317 $1,337 $1,421

Source: Company reports, Dundee Capital Markets estimates

DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page | 5

Gold Sector

September 3, 2014

2Q14 EARNINGS RECAP

Below we provide an overview of 2Q14 operating results for companies under coverage.
Overall, companies under coverage reported equity production which decreased 1% from
last quarter and increased 1% from last year, while co-product total cash costs increased 2%
from last quarter and 3% from last year.
2Q14 Operating Results Comparison
2Q14
Actual Dundee
Seniors
Barrick
Goldcorp
Kinross

Production (koz)
2Q13A
% Var
% Var

1Q14A
% Var

2Q14
Actual Dundee

Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)

2Q13A
% Var
% Var

1Q14A
% Var

1,485
649
680

1,524 O
645 648 P

-3%
1%
5%

1,811
713
655

-18%
-9%
4%

1,588
646
665

-6%
0%
2%

$615
$643
$742

$620 $673 P
$769 P

-1%
-4%
-4%

$579
$713
$737

6%
-10%
1%

$605
$673
$727

2%
-4%
2%

Intermediates
Agnico
Detour
Eldorado
IAMGOLD
New Gold
Randgold
Yamana

326
117
201
206
90
277
332

350 O
106 P
200 205 90 286 O
334 -

-7%
10%
0%
0%
-1%
-3%
-1%

224
58
184
214
102
196
296

45%
102%
9%
-4%
-13%
41%
12%

366
107
197
172
91
284
272

-11%
9%
2%
20%
-2%
-2%
22%

$626
$941
$549
$881
$682
$701
$622

$626 $1,011 P
$556 $869 $646 O
$695 $588 O

0%
-7%
-1%
1%
6%
1%
6%

$785
n/a
$536
$787
$713
$795
$577

-20%
n/a
2%
12%
-4%
-12%
8%

$537
$976
$577
$886
$658
$685
$640

17%
-4%
-5%
-1%
4%
2%
-3%

Juniors
Alamos
Aurico
B2Gold
DPM
Kirkland Lake
Marlin
Primero
Perseus
Timmins

33
56
86
44
n/a
n/a
63
43
33

41 O
53 P
92 O
44 n/a
n/a
64 35 P
33 -

-20%
6%
-7%
0%

53
38
82
38
n/a
n/a
39
48
28

-38%
47%
4%
14%

-11%
4%
-1%
44%

$617 P
$814 P
$715 $556 P
n/a
n/a
$619 O
$1,311 P
$749 P

$448
$655
$782
$340
n/a
n/a
$677
$1,274
$705

33%
22%
-8%
19%

-1%
-3%
4%

$617
$870
$635
$595
n/a
n/a
$686
$1,158
$703

-4%
-8%
13%
-32%

59%
-3%
-7%

$595
$801
$720
$405
n/a
n/a
$672
$1,232
$730

-4%
-2%
1%
-27%

62%
-11%
18%

37
54
86
30
n/a
n/a
40
44
35

Total Average

4,644

4,576

1%

4,691

-1%

$689

$669

3%

$673

2%

Beat
Miss

-1%
21%
0%

9%
-6%
-3%

-2%
6%
4%

P
O

Notes
Results based on equity production unless otherwise noted.
Results based on co-product total cash costs unless otherwise noted.
ELD results based on consolidated production.
AEM, AUQ, DPM, and TMM results based on by-product total cash costs, BTO based on operating cash costs.
K, P, YRI results based on gold equivalent ounces.
GOLD results based on group production
Total average costs based on equity gold production and co-product total cash costs.

Source: Company reports, Dundee Capital Markets estimates

Key points we highlight:

Of the group of 17 producing companies which have reported 2Q14 results, 4 reported
production results which were better than expected, 5 reported results which were
weaker, and 8 reported results which were in line.

The greatest production beat relative to Dundee expectations was delivered by Perseus
(+8 koz, +21%; lower impact than expected from a plant fire and electricity downtime)
and Detour (+11 koz, +10%; higher than anticipated grades), while the greatest
production miss was delivered by Alamos (-11 koz, -20%; lower heap leach grades and
lower contribution from high grade mill feed) and Agnico Eagle (-24 koz, -7%; lower
contribution than expected at LaRonde and Meadowbank).

Companies which demonstrated the greatest production increase year over year include
Detour (+59 koz, +102%; ramp-up progressing, increasing grades) and Randgold (+81
DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page | 6

Gold Sector

September 3, 2014

koz, +41%; Kibali ramp-up progressing, improvement in Loulo/Gounkoto grades), while

those with the greatest production decrease include Alamos (-20 koz, -38%; lower heap
leach grades, substantially lower contribution from higher grade mill feed) and Barrick (326 koz, -18%; year over year decrease at Cortez due to lower grades, sale of various
operations).

8 companies reported cost results which were better than expected, 3 reported results
which were weaker, and 6 reported results which were in line. The greatest cost beat
relative to Dundee expectations was delivered by DPM (-$151/oz, -27%; lower unit costs
at Chelopech and Kapan), while the greatest cost miss was delivered by Primero
(+$53/oz, +9%; lower grades and throughput at Black Fox).

Companies which demonstrated the greatest cost decrease year over year include
Agnico Eagle (-$159/oz, -20%; cost reduction initiatives, 2Q13 impacted by by-product
metal realized pricing) and Randgold (-$94/oz, -12%; improving performance of
Loulo/Gounkoto complex), while those with the greatest cost increase include Alamos
(+147/oz, 33%; lower contribution from higher grade mill feed) and AuRico (+$146/oz,
+22%; higher costs from open pit mining nearing completion).

Below we provide an overview of 2Q14 financial results for companies under coverage.
Overall, companies under coverage reported earnings which decreased 24% from last
quarter and 54% from last year. The decrease in earnings YoY is largely explained by 9%
lower gold prices, but also influenced negatively by 3% higher costs and offset by 1% higher
production.
Earnings Report Card
Actual
Seniors
Barrick
Goldcorp
Kinross

2Q adj. EPS
Dundee

Cons.

Commentary Re: Beat/Miss

$0.14
$0.20
$0.03

$0.12 P
$0.14 P
$0.06 O

Intermediates
Agnico
Detour
Eldorado
IAMGOLD
New Gold
Randgold
Yamana

$0.26
-$0.12
$0.05
$0.02
$0.02
$0.54
$0.05

$0.31 O
-$0.17 P
$0.05 $0.03 O
$0.03 O
$0.76 O
$0.01 P

$0.28 O
-$0.09 O
$0.05 $0.03 O
$0.03 O
$0.76 O
$0.03 P

- fewer ounces sold

- higher grade
- higher depr., offset by lower G&A, expl.
- fewer ounces sold
- fewer ounces sold, higher depr.
- Lower Kibali prod'n
- lower taxes

Juniors
Alamos
Aurico
B2Gold
DPM
Kirkland Lake
Marlin
Primero
Perseus
Timmins

$0.01
-$0.07
$0.00
$0.07
n/a
n/a
$0.01
n/a
$0.02

$0.02 O
-$0.04 O
$0.02 O
$0.06 P
n/a n/a $0.05 O
n/a $0.03 O

$0.01 -$0.05 O
$0.02 O
$0.08 O
n/a n/a $0.05 O
n/a $0.05 O

- lower gross margins

- higher depr.
- higher depr., taxes & G&A
- higher depr., lower gross margins
- n/a
- n/a
- higher costs at Black Fox
- n/a
- higher G&A

Beat
Miss

$0.15 O - lower taxes, depreciation

$0.14 P - more ounces sold, lower taxes
$0.04 O - higher depr. & interest, lower gross margins

P
O

Source: Company reports, Dundee Capital Markets estimates

DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page | 7

Gold Sector

September 3, 2014

1H14 PERFORMANCE AND IMPLIED 2H14 OUTLOOK

With half of the year complete, a number of companies in 2Q revised corporate guidance to
reflect realized results to date. Key points we highlight:

Of the 17 producing companies under coverage, three companies reported an

improvement in corporate guidance. Barrick reported a decrease in its total cash cost
and AISC cost guidance. Agnico Eagle incorporated the joint venture acquisition of
Osisko, resulting in higher net corporate production guidance, but updated guidance
also reflected an improvement in both production and costs for the company's preacquisition assets. Eldorado reported production expectations at the high end of its
existing range, while the company meaningfully reduced its cost guidance.

Three companies reported weaker corporate guidance. Yamana incorporated the joint
venture acquisition of Osisko, resulting in higher net corporate production guidance, but
updated guidance reflected a reduction of production at the company's pre-acquisition
assets. Dundee Precious Metals reduced its production forecasts, reflecting challenges
experienced at its Kapan mine. Detour lowered the top end of its production guidance
range due to weaker than expected mining rates, and cost guidance was increased.

Kinross announced its production would be at the high end of its stated range, while
costs would be at the low end of its stated range.

2014 Guidance Revisions

Company

2014 Guidance Update

Production Costs
Capex

Current Guidance
Production (koz)
TCC (US$/oz)

Seniors
Barrick

6,000

6,500

$580

$630

Goldcorp

2,950

3,100

$550

$600

Kinross

2,500

2,700

$730

$780

Agnico

1,350

1,370

$650

$675

Detour

450

480

$900

$975

Eldorado

IAMGOLD

835

900

$825

$875

New Gold

380

420

$320

$340

Randgold

1,130

1,200

$650

$700

Yamana

Alamos

150

170

$700

$740

Aurico

210

240

$675

$775

B2Gold

395

420

$667

$695

155

174

$335

$505

Kirkland Lake

Marlin

Primero

225

245

$650

Perseus

Timmins

115

125

Intermediates

790

$495

1,420

n/a

Juniors

DPM

$700
-

$800

Notes
Guidance based on equity gold production & by-product total cash costs unless otherwise noted.
ELD results based on consolidated production.
K, P, YRI guidance based on gold equivalent ounces.

Source: Company reports, Dundee Capital Markets estimates

DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page | 8

Gold Sector

September 3, 2014

Based on realized results in 1H14 for companies under coverage, we have calculated implied
results required in for 2H14 to achieve full year corporate guidance.

Of the 17 producing companies under coverage, we highlight that 9 are required to

report better 2H results to achieve outlined guidance. Typically, seasonality and project
ramp-ups can weight production for some companies towards 2H14.

Companies where production is not 2H weighted include Barrick, Kinross, Agnico Eagle,
Eldorado, Detour, AuRico, and Timmins. In our view, these companies are better
positioned to achieve full year results.

Companies whose production is weighted to 2H14 and where we see a greater

requirement to deliver better production outside of seasonality includes Alamos and
Dundee Precious Metals.

Implied 2H14 Production

Company

1H14 Production
koz
US$/oz

Implied 2H14 Prod'n

koz
US$/oz

2H14
Wtd

Reason for 2H14 weighting

Seniors
Barrick

3,073

$588

2,930

3,430

$572

$668

No

1H14 Cortez weaker sequencing

Goldcorp

1,329

$490

1,621

1,771

$599

$683

Yes

Cerro Negro ramp-up in 2H

Kinross

1,338

$735

1,162

1,362

$724

$824

No

n/a

692

$579

Intermediates
Agnico
excl. Malartic

658

678

$725

$773

No

n/a

530

560

$695

$786

No

n/a

225

255

$844

$994

No

Ramp-up at Detour Lake

No

n/a

Detour

225

$956

Eldorado

397

$504

IAMGOLD

378

$883

457

522

$777

$869

Yes

Essakane/Rosebel 1H Seasonality

New Gold

181

$253

199

239

$381

$406

Yes

Mesquite/CSP weaker 1H sequencing

Randgold

561

$693

569

639

$608

$706

Yes

Kibali 1H weaker from ramp-up commissioning

Yamana

604

$630

n/a

Yes

Weak 1H corporate performance, Brazil ramp-up operations slow

n/a

Yes

n/a

excl. Malartic

393

$486

816
687

697

Juniors
Alamos

70

$641

80

100

$752

$809

Yes

Weak 1H Mulatos performance

Aurico

110

$834

100

130

$499

$725

No

Ramp-up at Y/D

B2Gold

182

$675

213

238

$660

$710

Yes

Masbate mill change in 1H

DPM

63

$402

92

111

$289

$563

Yes

Weak 1H Chelopech/Kapan performance

Kirkland Lake

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Marlin

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Primero

100

$677

Yes

Ramp-up at Black Fox

Perseus

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Timmins

68

$715

$885

No

n/a

125

145

$628

n/a
47

57

$716

Notes
Based on equity gold production & by-product total cash costs unless otherwise noted.
ELD results based on consolidated production.
Guidance based on gold equivalent ounces.

Source: Company reports, Dundee Capital Markets estimates

DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page | 9

Gold Sector

September 3, 2014

CATALYST CALENDAR
Company

Milestone or Potential Catalyst

Agnico-Eagle
Agnico-Eagle
End 3Q14 Corporate update on 2015 guidance
Agnico-Eagle
3Q14 Malartic updated technical report and optimization
Agnico-Eagle
Kittila small scale expansion completion (to 3,750 tpd)
End 2014
Agnico-Eagle
Potential Kittila large scale expansion study results
2014
Agnico-Eagle
La India sulphides and Tarachi metallurgical testwork
Agnico-Eagle
Meliadine project certificate issued for construction
1Q15
Agnico-Eagle
Early 2015 Technical study results on satellite zones at Goldex
Agnico-Eagle
Meliadine updated feasibility study
Agnico-Eagle
LaRonde conveyor system completion
Late 2015
AuRico
Aurico
Q3/14 production & financials
4Q14
Aurico
2014 Y/D expansion updates
Aurico
Ongoing exploration updates
Alamos
Alamos 3Q14
Escondida ore depletion and San Carlos commencement of production
Alamos 4Q14 Kirazli injunction decision
Alamos
A Da forestry and operating permit approval
2015
Alamos
amyurt resource conversion
Alamos
Esperanza EIA approval and construction decision
Alamos
Kirazli forestry and operating permit approvals
Alamos
Initial production at Esperanza
Late 2016
Alamos
Initial production at Mulatos' La Yaqui satellite deposit
2016
Alamos
Initial production at Mulatos' Cerro Pelon satellite deposit
2017
B2Gold
B2Gold 4Q14 Otjikoto Construction Completion
B2Gold
Closing of Papillon acquisition
B2Gold
Ongoing Exploration Updates
2014
B2Gold
2015 Masbaste expansion decision
B2Gold 1Q15 New Feasibility study on Kiaka
Barrick
Barrick
Goldstrike thiosulphate project completion
4Q14
Barrick
Zaldivar fines processing feasibility study
Barrick
Late 2014 Turquoise Ridge shaft evaluation PFS (75% higher production for 5-8 years)
Barrick
Pueblo Viejo ramp-up to full capacity
2H14
BarrickMid 2015 Goldrush pre-feasibility study completion
Barrick
Late 2015 Jabal Sayid first production
BarrickOct 2015
Argentina presidential elections
Barrick
Late 2015 Cortez Hills Lower Zone PFS
Barrick
Dominican Republic presidential elections
2016
Detour
Detour
Ongoing updates on Detour Lake ramp-up
2014
Detour
Q3 prod & financial results
4Q14
Detour
1Q15 Block A Reserve Estimate
Dundee Precious Metals
Dundee Precious
Kapan preliminary underground expansion study results
3Q14 Metals
Dundee
Precious
Namibia presidential elections
Oct
2014 Metals
Dundee Precious Metals
Bulgaria federal elections
Dundee Precious
Tsumeb capacity permanently fully restored
2H14 Metals
Dundee Precious
Krumovgrad construction permits
2014 Metals
Dundee Precious
Tsumeb acid plant completion
1Q15 Metals

DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page | 10

Gold Sector

September 3, 2014
Eldorado Gold
Eldorado
Romania presidential elections
NovGold
2014
Eldorado
Tocantinzinho feasibility optimization study results
EndGold
2014
Eldorado Gold
Certej permitting appeals and final land acquisition, feasibility study results
Eldorado Gold
Commencement of Skouries underground optimization study
2014
Eldorado Gold
2015 Potential approval of Perama Hill EIS
Eldorado Gold
Potential Hong Kong Exchange listing of Chinese asset base
Eldorado Gold
4Q16 Skouries commercial production
Eldorado Gold
2017 Olympias phase II production and declaration of commercial production
Goldcorp
Goldcorp 4Q14 Cerro Negro commercial production
Goldcorp
First production at Eleonore
Goldcorp
Penasquito concentrate enrichment study completion (copper & pyrite)
Goldcorp
Cochenour initial production from development ore
Goldcorp 2H14
Penasquito long term tailings solution study completion
Goldcorp
Pueblo Viejo ramp-up to full capacity
Goldcorp
Mid-2015 Camino Rojo pre-feasibility study
Goldcorp 3Q15
Cochenour initial production from production stopes
Goldcorp
Argentina presidential elections
Oct 2015
Goldcorp 2015 Los Filos crushing/agglomeration expansion results
Goldcorp 2016
Dominican Republic presidential elections
IAMGOLD
IAMGOLD3Q14 Westwood initial commercial production results
IAMGOLD 2H14
Niobec expansion permitting
IAMGOLD 2015
Cote Gold permitting
IAMGOLD
Rosebel expansion feasibility study completion
IAMGOLD
Sadiola deep sulphides construction decision
IAMGOLD 2016
Cote Gold feasibility study completion and construction decision
Kinross
KinrossOct 2014
Brazil presidential elections
Kinross
Potential scoping economics for La Coipa's Phase 7 / Pompeya development
2014
Kinross
2015 Potential Tasiast mill expansion decision
New Gold
New Gold 3Q14
El Morro Supreme Court permitting injunction decision
New Gold 2H14
Cerro San Pedro resoution of municipality dispute
New Gold
End 2014 Rainy River EIA Approval and construction decision
New Gold
New Afton C-Zone resource update
New Gold 1H15
New Afton C-Zone preliminary economic evaluation
New Early
Gold 2015
Blackwater EIA approval
New Gold 2017
Blackwater initial production
Primero
Primero 4Q14
Q3 Operating and Financial results
Primero
Exploration Updates in Canada & Mexico
Primero 1Q15
Cerro del Gallo Optimization Results
Perseus
Perseus 3Q14 Edikan reserves & resources update
Perseus
Initial reserve at Bokitsi South satellite deposit
Perseus 2014 Updated Edikan LOM plan
Perseus 2015
Sissingue updated capital costs and construction decision
Perseus
Sissingue reserve update
Marlin
Marlin
Q3 Production & Financial Results
4Q14
Marlin
Exploration & Production Updates
2014
Kirkland Lake
Kirkland Lake
fQ1/15 Financial Results
3Q14
Kirkland Lake
Operational optimization updates
2014
Kirkland Lake
fQ2/15 Production Results
4Q14
Randgold Resources
Randgold Resources
DRC legislative elections
2014
Randgold Resources
DRC updated mining code
Randgold
Gounkoto Underground feasibility study
EndResources
2014
Randgold Resources
2014 Cote d'Ivoire windfall tax resolution
Randgold Resources
Tongon rougher flotation circuit completion
1Q15
Randgold Resources
Cote d'Ivoire presidential elections (October)
4Q15
Randgold
Cote d'Ivoire presidential elections
OctResources
2015
DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page | 11
Randgold Resources
DRC presidential elections
2016

Gold Sector

September 3, 2014
Timmins
Timmins 4Q14
Timmins 2014
Torex
Torex Aug 2014
Torex
4Q15
Torex
2H15
Torex
2Q16
Yamana
Yamana 3Q14
Yamana
Yamana
Yamana
Oct 2014
Yamana
End 2014
Yamana
Yamana 2014
Yamana 2016

Q3/14 Production & Financial results

Ongoing Exploration Results on Local Mexican Targets

Updated El Limon-Guajes resource estimate

Morelos initial production
Media Luna PEA completion
Morelos commercial production

C1 Santa Luz commercial production

Malartic updated technical report and optimization
Pilar commercial production
Brazil presidential elections
Cerro Moro production decision
Corpo Sul startup of operations at Chapada
Chapada recovery improvement study
Initial production at Cerro Moro

Source: Company reports, Dundee Capital Markets estimates

DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page | 12

Gold Sector

September 3, 2014

Comparable Tables - at Spot Gold and Silver

Spot gold priced at US$1,266/oz and spot silver at US$19.17/oz, as of September 2, 2014.
Company
Ticker
Price
Rating Target Basic Mkt
2-Sep-14
(1)
Price
Cap
(MM US$)

Enterprise
NAV at
P/NAV
Value
Spot Gold at Spot
(MM US$)
(2) (3) (4)

% NAV in
Develop.
(5)

P/CF at Spot
(CY)
(4)
2014E

FCF Yield at EV/EBITDA (CY) 2014E (CY) Analyst

Spot (CY) (6) (7)
at Spot (6)
Dividend
(9)
Yield
(%)
2015E
2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E

Senior Producers
Barrick Gold Corp.
Goldcorp Inc.
Kinross Gold Corp.
AVERAGE

ABX CN
G CN
K CN

C$19.52
C$29.24
C$4.22

N
N
B

$24.00
$33.00
$5.00

$20,800
$21,754
$4,418

$30,949
$24,272
$5,790

$7.14
$11.39
$2.56

2.50x
2.35x
1.51x
2.29x

17%
28%
1%

7.6x
16.7x
5.9x
9.8x

6.8x
12.7x
6.7x
8.6x

1.0%
-3.4%
1.3%
-0.7%

3.4%
1.9%
0.6%
2.5%

8.5x
11.8x
5.5x
9.1x

6.9x
9.7x
7.0x
7.8x

1.1%
2.2%
-

JW
JW
JW

AEM CN
DGC CN
ELD CN
IMG CN
NGD CN
GOLD US
YRI CN

C$40.36
C$12.99
C$8.63
C$4.20
C$6.75
US$81.96
C$9.00

B
N
N
S
B
B
S

$47.00
$15.00
$8.50
$3.75
$7.50
$100.00
$8.00

$7,743
$1,875
$5,655
$1,448
$3,112
$7,593
$7,226

$8,934
$2,373
$5,712
$1,799
$3,498
$7,616
$9,057

$14.37
$6.86
$4.52
$3.15
$2.74
$40.27
$3.09

2.57x
1.73x
1.75x
1.22x
2.25x
2.04x
2.67x
2.12x

15%
0%
50%
39%
20%
1%
17%

13.8x
17.2x
16.7x
5.2x
11.4x
14.5x
12.6x
13.0x

14.1x
18.3x
20.0x
5.8x
10.7x
13.1x
10.1x
12.5x

0.9%
-3.2%
-1.7%
-7.8%
-1.6%
1.9%
-1.4%
-0.7%

1.7%
-1.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-7.5%
4.0%
1.4%
-0.2%

12.9x
57.3x
13.1x
4.8x
11.4x
14.1x
12.5x
12.5x

11.6x
25.3x
14.5x
5.2x
9.6x
12.9x
9.7x
11.1x

0.8%
0.3%
0.2%
0.6%
2.1%

JW
JF
JW
JW
JW
JW
JW

AGI CN
AUQ CN
BTO CN
DPM CN
KGI CN
MLN CN
PRU CN
P CN
TMM CN

C$9.89
C$4.71
C$2.71
C$5.43
C$5.66
C$0.91
C$0.43
C$7.13
C$1.76

N
N
B
NR
B
B
N
B
B

$11.00
$5.25
$3.75
N/A
$5.25
$1.70
$0.45
$9.50
$2.50

$1,152
$1,071
$1,686
$698
$363
$67
$207
$1,043
$263

$760
$1,263
$1,917
$810
$473
$68
$156
$1,092
$219

$8.01
$2.50
$2.09
$4.11
$2.82
$1.29
$0.38
$4.97
$1.36

1.13x
1.73x
1.18x
1.21x
2.01x
0.71x
1.11x
1.31x
1.18x
1.28x

42%
0%
22%
21%
0%
17%
0%
5%
0%

21.6x
16.6x
11.3x
7.6x
13.8x
8.7x
11.4x
5.2x
11.9x

23.4x
8.8x
8.5x
8.3x
6.8x
8.3x
4.3x
10.2x
8.5x
9.4x

-0.2%
-8.2%
-7.1%
-13.6%
-10.7%
-18.1%
-14.6%
-5.0%
9.9%
-7.0%

-0.2%
0.0%
1.5%
2.3%
-0.6%
10.6%
7.7%
1.3%
5.3%
1.3%

12.8x
20.1x
13.9x
7.4x
21.0x
8.7x
13.2x
4.4x
12.4x

11.1x
8.9x
6.8x
6.9x
9.0x
6.7x
3.6x
9.4x
5.5x
7.7x

2.2%
1.6%
-

JW
JF
JF
JW
JF
JF
JW
JF
JF

TXG CN

C$1.71

$2.00

$1,225

$933

$1.41

1.21x
1.21x

99%

NM

- -32.2% -32.1%
NM -32.2% -32.1%

NM

NM

JW

BSX CN
CNL CN
PG CN

C$0.22
C$3.44
C$2.69

B
B
B

$0.50
$6.00
$4.25

$59
$399
$374

$52
$306
$329

$0.68
$4.76
$4.82

0.32x
0.66x
0.56x
0.54x

100%
100%
100%

NM

- -29.2% -193.3%
- -16.7% -43.7%
- -4.1% -5.1%
NM -11.9% -36.8%

NM

NM

JF
JF
JF

CDE US
EDR CN
FR CN
FVI CN
SVL CN
THO CN

US$7.70
C$5.76
C$10.82
C$5.41
C$2.13
C$27.27

N
N
B
B
B
B

$8.00
$6.75
$14.00
$7.75
$2.75
$33.50

$792
$526
$1,158
$620
$212
$3,645

$1,003
$511
$1,195
$560
$186
$3,668

$1.79
$1.64
$3.07
$3.18
$1.37
$12.51

4.30x
3.22x
3.23x
1.56x
1.42x
1.99x
2.26x

8%
0%
0%
0%
66%
0%

9.6x
15.8x
11.8x
13.9x
20.4x
19.3x

16.0x
11.9x
12.1x
16.2x
23.7x
21.4x

-9.5% -10.6%
1.6%
0.7%
-2.2%
0.4%
3.1% -1.0%
-8.7%
5.4%
2.2%
3.5%
-0.4%
0.5%

21.1x
8.5x
11.9x
9.6x
10.5x
18.3x
14.7x

22.9x
15.0x
9.5x
8.0x
9.1x
21.1x
15.2x

MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO

FNV CN
OR CN
SLW CN

C$60.53
C$14.83
C$26.64

UR
N
UR

UR
$14.50
UR

$8,150
$650
$8,711

$7,448
$507
$9,570

$25.86
$9.99
$13.76

2.14x
1.48x
1.77x
1.91x

21%
0%
28%

28.0x
9.9x
19.6x
21.9x

28.7x
33.0x
19.7x
23.5x

-2.9%
37.9%
1.8%
0.8%

0.1%
3.9%
4.6%
2.7%

22.2x
5.0x
21.9x
19.9x

21.5x
16.6x
21.2x
21.1x

1.4%
1.1%

0
JF
0

12.6x

11.6x

-1.1%

1.1%

11.4x

9.9x

Intermediate Producers
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.
Detour Gold Corp.
Eldorado Gold Corp.
IAMGOLD Corp.
New Gold Inc.
Randgold Resources Ltd.
Yamana Gold Inc.
AVERAGE
Junior Producers
Alamos Gold Inc.
AuRico Gold Inc.
B2Gold Corp.
Dundee Precious Metals Inc.
Kirkland Lake Gold
Marlin Gold Mining Ltd.
Perseus Mining Ltd.
Primero Mining
Timmins Gold Corp.
AVERAGE
Advanced Developers
Torex Gold Resources Inc.
AVERAGE
Explorers
Belo Sun Mining
Continental Gold Ltd.
Premier Gold Mines Limited
AVERAGE
Silver
Coeur Mining
Endeavour Silver
First Majestic Silver Corp
Fortuna Silver Mines
SilverCrest Mines
Tahoe Resources
AVERAGE
Royalty
Franco Nevada
Osisko Gold Royalties
Silver Wheaton
AVERAGE
TOTAL AVERAGE

2.02x

(1) B - Buy, N - Neutral, S - Sell, NR - Not Rated, NC - Not Covered, R - Restricted, UR - Under Review. Refer to disclosures for more information
(2) Discount rate varies by company. Generally 5% for gold assets, higher for base metal assets or high technical/political risk
(3) NAVPS at spot calculated at spot gold prices, spot silver prices, and base metal forward curves. P/NAV adjusted at spot FX rates.
(4) Average weighted according to market capitalization
(5) Percent of NAV attributed to mining assets/investments that are not currently in production
(6) Average weighted according to enterprise value
(7) Adjusted free cash flow = operating cash flow before working capital changes, less capital spending and preferred dividends
(8) Average weighted according to ounces of production. Total Acquisition Cost = Breakeven cost of acquisition per oz = (EV + LOM capital spending - Other Assets)/(LOM production) + LOM co-product total cash costs
(9) JF - Joe Fazzini, JW -Josh Wolfson, MO-Matthew O'Keefe

Source: Bloomberg, Dundee Capital Markets

DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page | 13

Gold Sector

September 3, 2014

APPENDIX
Changes to Targets
Company
Gold Companies
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.
Alamos Gold Inc.
AuRico Gold Inc.
Barrick Gold Corp.
B2Gold Corp.
Belo Sun Mining
Continental Gold Ltd.
Dundee Precious Metals Inc.
Detour Gold Corp.
Eldorado Gold Corp.
Goldcorp Inc.
IAMGOLD Corp.
Kinross Gold Corp.
Kirkland Lake Gold
Marlin Gold Mining Ltd.
New Gold Inc.
Osisko Gold Royalties
Perseus Mining Ltd.
Primero Mining
Randgold Resources Ltd.
Timmins Gold Corp.
Torex Gold Resources Inc.
Yamana Gold Inc.

Ticker

Rating
(1)

Risk

AEM CN
AGI CN
AUQ CN
ABX CN
BTO CN
BSX CN
CNL CN
DPM CN
DGC CN
ELD CN
G CN
IMG CN
K CN
KGI CN
MLN CN
NGD CN
OR CN
PRU CN
P CN
GOLD US
TMM CN
TXG CN
YRI CN

B
N
N
N
B
B
B
NR
N
N
N
S
B
B
B
B
N
N
B
B
B
B
S

High
High
High
High
High
Speculative
Speculative
N/A
High
High
High
High
High
High
Speculative
High
High
High
High
High
High
Speculative
High

New Target
(2)

Old Target
($)

$47.00
$11.00
$5.25
$24.00
$3.75
$0.50
$6.00
N/A
$15.00
$8.50
$33.00
$3.75
$5.00
$5.25
$1.70
$7.50
$14.50
$0.45
$9.50
$100.00
$2.50
$2.00
$8.00

$46.00
$12.00
$5.25
$23.00
$3.75
$0.50
$6.00
N/A
$15.00
$8.00
$31.00
$3.75
$5.50
$5.25
$1.70
$7.25
$14.50
$0.50
$9.50
$100.00
$2.50
$2.00
$7.75

Target Multiples (3)

Analyst
NAVPS
'14-16 CFPS
1.7x
1.2x
1.5x
1.3x
1.4x
0.7x
1.0x
N/A
1.4x
1.3x
1.6x
0.9x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.3x
1.6x
0.8x
1.5x
1.7x
1.3x
1.2x
1.2x

17x
16x
10x
N/A
17x
16x
4x
7x
15x
4x
18x
0x
10x

JW
JW
JF
JW
JF
JF
JF
JW
JF
JW
JW
JW
JW
JF
JF
JW
JF
JW
JF
JW
JF
JW
JW

(1) B - Buy, N - Neutral, S - Sell, NR - Not Rated, NC - Not Covered, RES - Restricted, T - Tender, U/R - Under Review. Refer to disclosures for more information.
(2) JF - Joseph Fazzini, JW - Josh Wolfson, LC - Laurence Curtis.
(3) JF target price methodology based on a NAVPS multiple; JW target price methodology based on a blend of NAVPS and 2014-2016 CFPS multiples.
(4) Calculated at price deck gold forecasts: 2014=$1,301/oz, 2015=$1,394/oz, 2016=$1,413/oz, Long Term=$1,325/oz.
(5) PRU fiscal year end is June 30; KGI fiscal year end is April 30.

Source: Dundee Capital Markets estimates

Changes to Estimates
Company

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.

Alamos Gold Inc.
AuRico Gold Inc.
Barrick Gold Corp.
B2Gold Corp.
Belo Sun Mining
Continental Gold Ltd.
Detour Gold Corp.
Dundee Precious Metals Inc.
Eldorado Gold Corp.
Goldcorp Inc.
IAMGOLD Corp.
Kinross Gold Corp.
Kirkland Lake Gold
New Gold Inc.
Osisko Gold Royalties
Perseus Mining Ltd.
Randgold Resources Ltd.
Timmins Gold Corp.
Torex Gold Resources Inc.
Yamana Gold Inc.

Ticker

AEM CN
AGI CN
AUQ CN
ABX CN
BTO CN
BSX CN
CNL CN
DGC CN
DPM CN
ELD CN
G CN
IMG CN
K CN
KGI CN
NGD CN
OR CN
PRU CN
GOLD US
TMM CN
TXG CN
YRI CN

NAVPS (1) (2)

CY 2014 EPS (1) (2)

CY 2015 EPS (1) (2)

CY 2014 CFPS (1) (2)

Prev

New

Prev

New

Prev

New

Prev

New

$18.00
$10.20
$3.34
$9.83
$2.51
$0.76
$5.40
$9.93
$4.30
$5.29
$14.55
$4.71
$3.63
$4.72
$3.32
$10.41
$0.50
$46.20
$1.79
$1.56
$4.48

$17.99
$9.38
$3.34
$10.34
$2.51
$0.76
$5.40
$9.93
$4.91
$5.40
$14.24
$4.26
$3.49
$4.72
$3.36
$10.41
$0.55
$46.20
$1.79
$1.58
$4.28

0%
-8%
0%
5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
14%
2%
-2%
-10%
-4%
0%
1%
0%
10%
0%
0%
1%
-4%

$1.09
$0.09
-$0.10
$0.66
$0.03
-$0.06
-$0.06
-$0.59
$0.17
$0.22
$0.79
$0.20
$0.18
-$0.16
$0.16
$0.32
-$0.04
$3.15
$0.11
-$0.03
$0.15

$1.09
$0.09
-$0.10
$0.66
$0.03
-$0.06
-$0.06
-$0.59
$0.21
$0.20
$0.92
$0.20
$0.13
-$0.16
$0.14
$0.32
-$0.04
$3.15
$0.11
-$0.03
$0.16

0%
-1%
NM
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
21%
-11%
16%
0%
-29%
0%
-12%
0%
1%
0%
0%
-3%
6%

$1.45
$0.28
$0.10
$1.39
$0.12
-$0.02
-$0.07
-$0.17
$0.38
$0.27
$1.18
$0.34
$0.23
$0.21
$0.31
$0.51
$0.04
$4.65
$0.12
-$0.05
$0.29

$1.45
$0.28
$0.10
$1.43
$0.12
-$0.02
-$0.07
-$0.17
$0.39
$0.22
$1.27
$0.30
$0.21
$0.21
$0.31
$0.51
$0.02
$4.65
$0.12
-$0.05
$0.28

0%
2%
0%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
-16%
8%
-10%
-8%
0%
-2%
0%
-56%
0%
0%
5%
-2%

$2.80
$0.45
$0.28
$2.38
$0.23
-$0.05
-$0.04
$0.73
$0.57
$0.48
$1.57
$0.84
$0.76
$0.41
$0.56
$1.50
$0.03
$5.89
$0.33
-$0.04
$0.72

$2.80
$0.44
$0.28
$2.44
$0.23
-$0.05
-$0.04
$0.73
$0.67
$0.49
$1.66
$0.78
$0.69
$0.41
$0.55
$1.50
$0.05
$5.89
$0.33
-$0.04
$0.69

%
0%
-3%
0%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
17%
1%
6%
-7%
-8%
0%
-2%
0%
57%
0%
0%
5%
-4%

CY 2015 CFPS (1) (2)

Analyst

Prev

New

(3)

$3.40
$0.50
$0.61
$3.23
$0.34
-$0.01
-$0.04
$1.06
$0.70
$0.52
$2.44
$1.01
$0.79
$0.94
$0.71
$0.51
$0.13
$7.53
$0.25
-$0.05
$1.06

$3.40
$0.50
$0.61
$3.24
$0.34
-$0.01
-$0.04
$1.06
$0.75
$0.49
$2.54
$0.86
$0.77
$0.94
$0.70
$0.51
$0.13
$7.53
$0.25
-$0.04
$1.05

0%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
8%
-7%
4%
-15%
-2%
0%
-1%
0%
1%
0%
0%
5%
-1%

JW
JW
JF
JW
JF
JF
JF
JF
JW
JW
JW
JW
JW
JF
JW
JF
JW
JW
JF
JW
JW

(1) Calculated at price deck gold forecasts: 2014=$1,301/oz, 2015=$1,394/oz, 2016=$1,413/oz, Long Term=$1,325/oz.
(2) PRU fiscal year end is June 30; KGI fiscal year end is April 30
(3) JF - Joe Fazzini, JW - Josh Wolfson

Source: Dundee Capital Markets estimates

DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page | 14

Gold Sector

September 3, 2014

Quarterly Earnings and Cash Flow Estimates

Company

Ticker

2014E Adj. EPS At Price Deck (1) (2) (3)

1Q14A 2Q14A 3Q14E 4Q14E

Gold
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.
Alamos Gold Inc.
AuRico Gold Inc.
Barrick Gold
B2Gold Corp.
Belo Sun Mining
Continental Gold Ltd.
Detour Gold Corp.
Dundee Precious Metals Inc.
Eldorado Gold Corp.
Goldcorp
IAMGOLD Corp.
Kinross Gold
Kirkland Lake Gold
Marlin Gold Mining Ltd.
New Gold Inc.
Osisko Royalties Corp
Perseus Mining Ltd.
Primero Mining
Randgold Resources Ltd.
Timmins Gold Corp.
Torex Gold Resources Inc.
Yamana Gold Inc.

Company

AEM CN
AGI CN
AUQ CN
ABX CN
BTO CN
BSX CN
CNL CN
DGC CN
DPM CN
ELD CN
G CN
IMG CN
K CN
KGI CN
MLN CN
NGD CN
OR CN
PRU CN
P CN
GOLD US
TMM CN
TXG CN
YRI CN

$0.57
$0.03
-$0.03
$0.20
-$0.04
-$0.01
-$0.03
-$0.20
-$0.02
$0.05
$0.26
$0.03
$0.03
-$0.03
$0.00
$0.04
$0.12
-$0.01
-$0.02
$0.78
$0.05
-$0.01
$0.01

Ticker

$0.26
$0.01
-$0.06
$0.14
-$0.02
-$0.01
$0.01
-$0.12
$0.07
$0.05
$0.20
$0.02
$0.03
-$0.06
-$0.01
$0.02
$0.00
$0.00
$0.01
$0.54
$0.02
-$0.01
$0.05

$0.10
-$0.02
-$0.02
$0.13
$0.01
-$0.02
-$0.03
-$0.14
$0.04
$0.06
$0.18
$0.07
$0.02
-$0.06
-$0.01
$0.03
$0.10
-$0.02
$0.02
$0.84
$0.02
-$0.01
$0.04

$0.16
$0.07
$0.01
$0.19
$0.01
-$0.02
-$0.02
-$0.13
$0.12
$0.04
$0.28
$0.08
$0.05
-$0.02
$0.00
$0.06
$0.10
-$0.01
$0.00
$0.98
$0.02
-$0.01
$0.06

AEM CN
AGI CN
AUQ CN
ABX CN
BTO CN
BSX CN
CNL CN
DGC CN
DPM CN
ELD CN
G CN
IMG CN
K CN
KGI CN
NGD CN
OR CN
PRU CN
P CN
GOLD US
TMM CN
TXG CN
YRI CN

$1.09
$0.09
-$0.10
$0.66
$0.03
-$0.06
-$0.06
-$0.59
$0.21
$0.20
$0.92
$0.20
$0.13
-$0.16
-$0.02
$0.14
$0.32
-$0.04
$0.01
$3.15
$0.11
-$0.03
$0.16

CY14
Cons.

$1.25
$0.09
-$0.15
$0.74
$0.08
-$0.05
-$0.09
-$0.39
-$0.15
$0.23
$0.89
$0.14
$0.15
-$0.13
-$0.06
$0.13
$0.24
$0.02
$0.05
$3.13
$0.12
-$0.06
$0.21

2014E CFPS At Price Deck (1) (2) (3)

1Q14A 2Q14A 3Q14E 4Q14E

Gold
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.
Alamos Gold Inc.
AuRico Gold Inc.
Barrick Gold
B2Gold Corp.
Belo Sun Mining
Continental Gold Ltd.
Detour Gold Corp.
Dundee Precious Metals Inc.
Eldorado Gold Corp.
Goldcorp
IAMGOLD Corp.
Kinross Gold
Kirkland Lake Gold
New Gold Inc.
Osisko Royalties Corp
Perseus Mining Ltd.
Primero Mining
Randgold Resources Ltd.
Timmins Gold Corp.
Torex Gold Resources Inc.
Yamana Gold Inc.

CY14
Dundee

$1.11
$0.13
$0.05
$0.81
$0.06
-$0.01
-$0.01
$0.12
$0.11
$0.13
$0.28
$0.17
$0.17
$0.10
$0.18
$0.22
$0.01
$0.05
$1.42
$0.12
$0.00
$0.12

$0.75
$0.10
$0.05
$0.47
$0.04
-$0.01
-$0.01
$0.26
$0.19
$0.13
$0.42
$0.13
$0.16
$0.03
$0.09
$0.43
$0.02
$0.17
$1.31
$0.08
-$0.01
$0.14

$0.41
$0.06
$0.07
$0.52
$0.06
-$0.01
-$0.02
$0.17
$0.13
$0.13
$0.41
$0.27
$0.17
$0.02
$0.15
$0.10
$0.01
$0.17
$1.50
$0.06
-$0.02
$0.20

$0.53
$0.15
$0.10
$0.64
$0.06
-$0.01
-$0.01
$0.18
$0.24
$0.09
$0.55
$0.22
$0.19
$0.26
$0.13
$0.10
$0.01
$0.16
$1.67
$0.07
-$0.01
$0.24

CY14
Dundee

$2.80
$0.44
$0.28
$2.44
$0.23
-$0.05
-$0.04
$0.73
$0.67
$0.49
$1.66
$0.78
$0.69
$0.41
$0.55
$1.50
$0.05
$0.62
$5.89
$0.33
-$0.04
$0.69

CY14
Cons.

$3.29
$0.47
$0.28
$2.29
$0.24
-$0.04
-$0.04
$0.79
$0.83
$0.51
$1.82
$0.75
$0.86
$0.28
$0.60
$0.31
$0.11
$0.54
$4.95
$0.29
-$0.06
$0.85

At Spot
(4)
CY14E
Dundee

$0.99
$0.07
-$0.12
$0.61
$0.03
-$0.06
-$0.06
-$0.63
$0.20
$0.19
$0.83
$0.16
$0.08
-$0.16
-$0.03
$0.13
$0.31
-$0.04
-$0.01
$2.95
$0.10
-$0.03
$0.13

At Spot
(4)
CY14E
Dundee

$2.68
$0.42
$0.26
$2.35
$0.22
-$0.05
-$0.04
$0.69
$0.66
$0.47
$1.60
$0.74
$0.65
$0.41
$0.54
$1.50
$0.05
$0.57
$5.67
$0.31
-$0.04
$0.65

2015E Adj. EPS At Price Deck (1) (2) (3)

1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E

$0.28
$0.06
$0.02
$0.32
$0.02
-$0.01
-$0.02
-$0.11
$0.07
$0.04
$0.26
$0.07
$0.04
$0.08
-$0.01
$0.06
$0.12
$0.00
$0.02
$1.04
$0.03
-$0.01
$0.05

$0.32
$0.07
$0.02
$0.33
$0.03
-$0.01
-$0.02
-$0.08
$0.10
$0.06
$0.29
$0.07
$0.05
$0.03
$0.02
$0.07
$0.12
$0.00
$0.02
$1.10
$0.03
-$0.01
$0.06

$0.39
$0.06
$0.03
$0.38
$0.03
$0.00
-$0.02
$0.00
$0.10
$0.07
$0.33
$0.08
$0.06
$0.04
$0.03
$0.09
$0.13
$0.01
$0.05
$1.21
$0.03
-$0.01
$0.08

$0.45
$0.09
$0.04
$0.40
$0.03
$0.00
-$0.01
$0.02
$0.11
$0.05
$0.38
$0.08
$0.07
$0.06
$0.04
$0.09
$0.13
$0.01
$0.02
$1.30
$0.03
-$0.01
$0.09

CY15E CY15E
Dundee Cons.

$1.45
$0.28
$0.10
$1.43
$0.12
-$0.02
-$0.07
-$0.17
$0.39
$0.22
$1.27
$0.30
$0.21
$0.21
$0.08
$0.31
$0.51
$0.02
$0.11
$4.65
$0.12
-$0.05
$0.28

$1.28
$0.19
-$0.02
$1.11
$0.15
-$0.03
-$0.09
$0.31
$0.40
$0.26
$1.15
$0.21
$0.19
$0.28
$0.20
$0.21
$0.53
$0.03
$0.23
$3.89
$0.12
-$0.02
$0.38

2015E CFPS At Price Deck (1) (2) (3)

1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E

$0.74
$0.10
$0.13
$0.74
$0.08
$0.00
-$0.01
$0.18
$0.15
$0.11
$0.53
$0.24
$0.19
$0.28
$0.18
$0.12
$0.03
$0.19
$1.72
$0.06
-$0.01
$0.23

$0.79
$0.13
$0.14
$0.76
$0.08
$0.00
-$0.01
$0.23
$0.19
$0.12
$0.62
$0.18
$0.19
$0.19
$0.15
$0.12
$0.03
$0.19
$1.83
$0.06
-$0.01
$0.25

$0.88
$0.12
$0.16
$0.85
$0.09
$0.00
-$0.01
$0.31
$0.20
$0.15
$0.66
$0.25
$0.19
$0.22
$0.21
$0.13
$0.04
$0.21
$1.93
$0.06
-$0.01
$0.27

$0.99
$0.16
$0.18
$0.89
$0.10
$0.00
-$0.01
$0.34
$0.21
$0.11
$0.73
$0.19
$0.20
$0.25
$0.16
$0.13
$0.04
$0.18
$2.05
$0.06
-$0.01
$0.29

CY15E CY15E
Dundee Cons.

$3.40
$0.50
$0.61
$3.24
$0.34
-$0.01
-$0.04
$1.06
$0.75
$0.49
$2.54
$0.86
$0.77
$0.94
$0.70
$0.51
$0.13
$0.77
$7.53
$0.25
-$0.04
$1.05

$3.62
$0.58
$0.45
$2.84
$0.35
-$0.02
-$0.05
$1.45
$0.93
$0.56
$2.59
$0.90
$0.91
$0.82
$0.70
$0.64
$0.11
$0.83
$6.76
$0.24
$0.01
$1.13

At Spot
(4)
CY15E
Dundee

$0.75
$0.16
$0.01
$0.96
$0.07
-$0.02
-$0.07
-$0.58
$0.25
$0.15
$0.80
$0.12
$0.04
$0.14
$0.02
$0.18
$0.45
$0.00
-$0.02
$3.50
$0.07
-$0.05
$0.08

At Spot
(4)
CY15E
Dundee

$2.61
$0.39
$0.49
$2.63
$0.29
-$0.01
-$0.04
$0.65
$0.60
$0.40
$2.11
$0.66
$0.57
$0.83
$0.58
$0.45
$0.10
$0.64
$6.26
$0.19
-$0.04
$0.82

(1) Calculated at price deck gold forecasts: 2014=$1,301/oz, 2015=$1,394/oz, 2016=$1,413/oz, Long Term=$1,325/oz.
(2) Consensus values based on Bloomberg reported information.
(3) PRU fiscal year end is June 30; KGI fiscal year end is April 30

Source: Bloomberg, Company reports, Dundee Capital Markets

DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page | 15

Gold Sector

September 3, 2014

Disclosures & Disclaimers

This research report (as defined in IIROC Rule 3400) is issued and approved for distribution in Canada by Dundee Securities
Ltd. (Dundee Capital Markets), an investment dealer operating its business through its two divisions, Dundee Capital
Markets and Dundee Goodman Private Wealth. Dundee Capital Markets is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection
Fund, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and an investment fund manager registered with the
securities commissions across Canada. Dundee Capital Markets is a subsidiary of Dundee Corporation.
Research Analyst Certification: Each Research Analyst involved in the preparation of this research report hereby certifies that:
(1) the views and recommendations expressed herein accurately reflect his/her personal views about any and all of the
securities or issuers that are the subject matter of this research report; and (2) his/her compensation is not and will not be
directly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the Research Analyst in this research report. The
Research Analyst involved in the preparation of this research report does not have authority whatsoever (actual, implied or
apparent) to act on behalf of any issuer mentioned in this research report.
U.S. Residents: Dundee Securities Inc. is a U.S. registered broker-dealer, a member of FINRA and an affiliate of Dundee Capital
Markets. Dundee Securities Inc. accepts responsibility for the contents of this research report, subject to the terms and
limitations as set out above. U.S. residents seeking to effect a transaction in any security discussed herein should contact
Dundee Securities Inc. directly. Research reports published by Dundee Capital Markets are intended for distribution in the
United States only to Major Institutional Investors (as such term is defined in SEC 15a-6 and Section 15 of the Securities
Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) and are not intended for the use of any person or entity.
UK Residents: Dundee Securities Europe LLP, an affiliate of Dundee Capital Markets, is authorized and regulated by the
United Kingdoms Financial Conduct Authority (No 586295) for the purposes of security broking & asset management.
Research prepared by UK-based analysts is under the supervision of and is issued by its affiliate, Dundee Capital Markets.
Dundee Securities Europe LLP is responsible for compliance with applicable rules and regulations of the FCA, including Chapter
12 of the FCAs Conduct of Business Sourcebook (the FCA Rules) in respect of any research recommendations (as defined in
the FCA Rules) in reports prepared by UK-based analysts. Dundee Capital Markets and Dundee Securities Europe LLP have
implemented written procedures designed to identify and manage potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with
the preparation and distribution of their research. Dundee Capital Markets is responsible (i) for ensuring that the research
publications are compliant with IIROC Rule 3400 Research Restrictions and Disclosure Requirements. And (ii) including all
required conflict of interest disclosures.
General:
This research report is provided, for informational purposes only, to institutional investor and retail clients of Dundee Capital
Markets in Canada. This research report is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any of the securities
discussed herein.
The information contained in this research report is prepared from publicly available information, internally developed data
and other sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by Dundee Capital Markets and Dundee
Capital Markets makes no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy, correctness or completeness of such
information and they should not be relied upon as such. All estimates, opinions and recommendations expressed herein
constitute judgments as of the date of this research report and are subject to change without notice. Dundee Capital Markets
does not accept any obligation to update, modify or amend this research report or to otherwise notify a recipient of this
research report in the event that any estimates, opinions and recommendations contained herein change or subsequently
becomes inaccurate or if this research report is subsequently withdrawn.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made
regarding future performance of any security mentioned in this research report. The price of the securities mentioned in this
research report and the income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by market factors or exchange rates,
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own independent judgment in making an investment decision and, prior to acting on any of contained in this research report,
investors are advised to contact his or her investment adviser to discuss their particular circumstances.
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September 3, 2014

Non-client recipients of this research report should consult with an independent financial advisor prior to making any
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Dundee Capital Markets Research is distributed by email, website or hard copy. Dissemination of initial research reports and
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Certain discretionary client portfolios are managed by portfolio managers and/or dealing representatives in its private client
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and may in the future have, long or short positions in the securities discussed in this research report and, from time to time,
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Should this research report provide web addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, third party web sites, Dundee has not
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Unless publications are specifically marked as research publications of Dundee Capital Markets, the views expressed therein
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Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts and projections based on beliefs and
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Dundee Securities Ltd. Any reproduction or distribution in whole or in part of this research report without permission is
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Informal Comment: Informal Comments are analysts informal comments that are posted on the Dundee website. They generally
pertain to news flow and do not contain any change in analysts' opinion, estimates, rating or target price. Any rating(s) and target
price(s) in an Informal Comment are from prior formal published research reports. A link is provided in any Informal Comment to all
company specific disclosures and analyst specific disclosures for companies under coverage, and general disclosures and disclaimers.
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Please refer to formal published research reports for valuation methodologies used in determining target prices for companies
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Idea of Interest: Dundee Capital Markets has not initiated formal continuing coverage of Idea of Interest companies. Dundee
Capital Markets from time to time publishes reports on Idea of Interest securities for which it does not and may not choose to
provide formal continuous research coverage. All opinions and estimates contained in an Idea of Interest report are subject to
change without notice and are provided in good faith but without the legal responsibility that would accompany formal
continuous research coverage. The companies may have recommendations and risk ratings as per our regular rating system
and may have target prices, see Explanation of Recommendations and Risk Ratings for details. Any recommendations, ratings,
target prices and/or comments expire 30 days from the published date, and once expired should no longer be relied upon as
DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page | 17

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September 3, 2014

no assurance can be given as to the accuracy or relevance going forward. Dundee does not accept any obligation to update,
modify or amend any Idea of Interest report or to otherwise notify a recipient of an Idea of Interest report in the event that
any estimates, opinions and recommendations contained in such report change or subsequently become inaccurate. Dundee
clients should consult their investment advisor as to the appropriateness of an investment in the securities mentioned.
IIROC Rule 3400 Disclosures and/or FCA COBS 12.4.10 Disclosures: A link is provided in all research reports delivered by electronic
means to disclosures required under IIROC Rule 3400. Disclosures required under IIROC Rule 3400 for sector research reports
covering six or more issuers can be found on the Dundee Capital Markets website at www.dundeecapitalmarkets.com in the
Research Section. Other Services means the participation of Dundee in any institutional non-brokered private placement exceeding
$5 million. Where Dundee Capital Markets and its affiliates collectively beneficially own 1% or more (or for the purpose of FCA
disclosure 5% or more) of any class of the issuers equity securities, our calculations will exclude managed positions that are
controlled, but not beneficially owned by Dundee Capital Markets.
Explanation of Recommendations and Risk Ratings
Dundee target: represents the price target as required under IIROC Rule 3400. Valuation methodologies used in determining the price
target(s) for the issuer(s) mentioned in this research report are contained in current and/or prior research. Dundee target N/A: a price
target and/or NAV is not available if the analyst deems there are limited financial metrics upon which to base a reasonable valuation.
Recommendations: BUY: Total returns expected to be materially better than the overall market with higher return
expectations needed for more risky securities. NEUTRAL: Total returns expected to be in line with the overall market. SELL:
Total returns expected to be materially lower than the overall market. TENDER: The analyst recommends tendering shares to
a formal tender offer. UNDER REVIEW: The analyst will place the rating and/or target price Under Review when there is a
significant material event with further information pending; and/or when the analyst determines it is necessary to await
adequate information that could potentially lead to a re-evaluation of the rating, target price or forecast; and/or when
coverage of a particular security is transferred from one analyst to another to give the new analyst time to reconfirm the
rating, target price or forecast.
Risk Ratings: risk assessment is defined as Medium, High, Speculative or Venture. Medium: securities with reasonable liquidity
and volatility similar to the market. High: securities with poor liquidity or high volatility. Speculative: where the company's
business and/or financial risk is high and is difficult to value. Venture: an early stage company where the business and/or
financial risk is high, and there are limited financial metrics upon which to base a reasonable valuation.
Investors should not deem the risk ratings to be a comprehensive account of all of the risks of a security. Investors are
directed to read Dundee Capital Markets Research reports that contain a discussion of risks which is not meant to be a
comprehensive account of all the risks. Investors are directed to read issuer filings which contain a discussion of risk factors
specific to the companys business.
Medium and High Risk Ratings Methodology: Medium and High risk ratings are derived using a predetermined methodology
based on liquidity and volatility. Analysts will have the discretion to raise but not lower the risk rating if it is deemed a higher
risk rating is warranted. Risk in relation to forecasted price volatility is only one method of assessing the risk of a security and
actual risk ratings could differ.
Securities with poor liquidity or high volatility are considered to be High risk. Liquidity and volatility are measured using the
following methodology: a) Price Test: All securities with a price <= $3.00 per share are considered high risk for the purpose of
this test. b) Liquidity Test: This is a two-tiered calculation that looks at the market capitalization and trading volumes of a
company. Smaller capitalization stocks (<$300MM) are assumed to have less liquidity, and are, therefore, more subject to
price volatility. In order to avoid discriminating against smaller cap equities that have higher trading volumes, the risk rating
will consider 12 month average trading volumes and if a company has traded >70% of its total shares outstanding it will be
considered a liquid stock for the purpose of this test. c) Volatility Test: In this two step process, a stocks volatility and beta are
compared against the diversified equity benchmark. Canadian equities are compared against the TSX while U.S. equities are
compared against the S&P 500. Generally, if the volatility of a stock is 20% greater than its benchmark and the beta of the
stock is higher than its sector beta, then the security will be considered a high risk security. Otherwise, the security will be
deemed to be a medium risk security. Periodically, the equity risk ratings will be compared to downside risk metrics such as
Value at Risk and Semi-Variance and appropriate adjustments may be made. All models used for assessing risk incorporate
some element of subjectivity.
SECURITY ABBREVIATIONS: NVS (non-voting shares); RVS (restricted voting shares); RS (restricted shares); SVS (subordinate
voting shares).

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September 3, 2014

Dundee Capital Markets Equity Research Ratings

73%

77%
% of companies covered by Dundee Capital Markets in
each rating category

66%
55%
44%

% of companies within each rating category for which

Dundee Capital Markets has provided investment banking
services for a fee in the past 12 months.

35%

33%

24%

22%

17%
12%

11%

3%

0%
Buy

Neutral

Sell

As at June 30, 2014

Source: Dundee Capital Markets

DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page | 19