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percent using mathematical modeling.3 In this article I take a common-
sense approach using simple arithmetic, contemporary epidemiology,
and other historical studies of epidemics in pre-modern societies to
come up with an informal indicator of the plague’s magnitude.
Contemporary ancient literary sources are few, the standouts in
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plague struck in 166 AD, though he soon departed, probably because
of the risk of infection. His references to the plague are sporadic, and
primarily intended as a professional review of how to treat the disease.
On the basis of his description of the symptoms of the disease, Littman
/LWWPDQKDYHFRQYLQFLQJO\LGHQWLÀHGWKHDJHQWDVVPDOOSR[4 Dio’s
record of the initial outbreak of plague in 164-166 AD is lost, but he
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Dio does not speak of the total impact of the disease, or contribute to
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occurred at Rome at the height of this outbreak, a point which will be
revisited later. Though it is impossible to assess the real impact of the
plague on the basis of the historical and archaeological record alone,
we should be able to cautiously apply our knowledge about smallpox
to the Roman situation. On this basis, we can construct a basic model
of the epidemic centered on the initial outbreak in the mid-160s and
draw tentative conclusions on the plague’s total impact on the Roman
population.
3
Roger S. Bagnall, “P. Oxy. 4527 and the Antonine Plague in Egypt: Death
or Flight?” Journal of Roman Archaeology 7KH GLIÀFXOW\ ZLWK
Bagnall’s approach is that, like so many other arguments grounded in papyrological
evidence, it makes global generalizations about the empire on the basis of
extremely local and potentially idiosyncratic evidence. Zelener’s unpublished
dissertation, “Smallpox and the Disintegration of the Roman Economy after 165
AD,” develops a comprehensive model of the epidemic based on the critical mass
needed to change a low level of infection into an epidemic at different places
and different times, and accounts for disease cycles, population replacement,
changing levels of immunity, and most importantly different population densities
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25%; for a full discussion of his calculations see p. 84-111 of the dissertation.
4
R.J. Littman and M.L. Littman, “Galen and the Antonine Plague,” The
American Journal of PhilologyQR$XWXPQ7KHLULGHQWLÀFDWLRQ
on the grounds of differential diagnosis among epidemic diseases exhibiting skin
rash is found in Ibid., 250-251.
5
Cassius Dio 73.14.3-4.
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ability to remain lethal for 500 years, a disease with no cure whose tide
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basis of this simple arithmetical approach, we can no longer doubt that
the impact of the Antonine plague on the Rome was substantial, and
any serious study of the decline and fall of the empire must reckon
with contagion as a major contributing factor to the unraveling of the
ancient world.