What Caused The Crime Decline?

How these findings apply to work in your state

Inimai Chettiar, Director, Justice Program

Dr. Oliver Roeder, Economics Fellow, Justice Program
Lauren-Brooke Eisen, Counsel, Justice Program
Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law

Did Mass Incarceration Cause the

Crime Drop?

Since 1990 incarceration rate nearly doubled.

And crime rate was cut in half.
Did incarceration cause the crime drop? If not, what
did?

Quantifying Crime & Incarceration

Report Methodology
Examined 14 popular theories for crime decline
20 months of research
An interdisciplinary team: criminal justice
attorneys, economist, economics researchers
Comprehensive data sets from 50 states and 50
biggest cities
Used a statistical regression model
Informed by large body of economics,
criminology, and law.

Our Findings Quantified

Our Findings
The growth in incarceration played a limited role in the
crime drop.
Increases in incarceration were responsible for roughly 5% of
the crime decline.
They had essentially zero effect in the 2000s.

Other factors also played a role:

Introduction of CompStat (a policing technique): 10% reduction
in crime
Higher income: 7.5% of crime decline
Decreased alcohol consumption: 7.5% of crime decline
Increased police numbers: 2.5% of crime decline
Aging population: 2.5% of crime decline
Lower unemployment: 1.5% of crime decline

The Effect of Mass Incarceration on

Crime

How Could Incarceration Have Had

Such a Low Effect?

Diminishing returns: The more we use, the less it works.

At astronomical levels, additional incarceration is not effective.

Why are there Diminishing Returns to

Incarceration?
Offenders are less dangerous/habitual on average
Too many low-level offenders
Each additional prisoner becomes less dangerous/habitual
on average

Prison may be criminogenic

Prison-as-school
Stigma effect

Incarcerating the first million people is more effective

than incarcerating the second million.
Our regression model captures these diminishing
returns. So we see a lower effect.

The Inefficiency of Incarceration

High Costs
Fiscal: $260 billion on criminal justice each year
Economic: Countrys poverty rate would have
been 20% lower without mass incarceration.
Social: 2.7 million children with incarcerated
parent.

Low Benefits
Incarceration at todays levels is ineffective at
reducing crime.

Can you decrease incarceration &

decrease crime?

Yes!

New York
Reduced prison
population by 26% and
crime fell by 28% since
2000.
In 2009, repealed the
Rockefeller Drug laws,
and reduced felony
arrests.

California
Reduced its prison
population by 26% and
crime fell by 18% since
2000.
U.S. Supreme Court
order to reduce
imprisonment in 2011.

Texas
Reduced its prison
population by 20% and
crime fell by 26% since
2000.
In 2007, in lieu of
building prisons,
appropriated $200
million to treatment
programs.

What is CompStat?
Management
technique
System of
accountability &
results
Relies on data
Originated in
NYPD in 1994.
Used in 41 of 50
biggest cities.

City Examples

What works in policing?

Takeaway: More police, better managed, can
bring down crime.
Introduction of CompStat is associated with a
10% decline in crime.
Increasing numbers of police officers
contributed to 5% of the crime drop.

What do all these numbers mean

for bills in my state?

Support Reforms to:

Reducing bail amounts

Reclassifying felonies to misdemeanors
Removing incarceration for low-level crimes
Reducing sentences for marijuana possession
Reducing mandatory minimums

Support Reforms to: (contd.)

Expanding treatment and reentry
Expanding parole/likelihood of release
Raising the age of criminal responsibility

Findings do not support:

Increasing bail amounts

Increasing sentences for drug offenders
Increasing mandatory minimums
Restricting parole/likelihood of release

Thank You & Questions

Resource Page:
https://www.brennancenter.org/what-causedcrime-decline
Report, What Caused the Crime Decline?
State Fact Sheets
Legislative Strategy Document
PowerPoint

Contact: LB Eisen, Counsel, lbeisen@nyu.edu;

646-292-8320