Geomorphology 118 (2010) 167175

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Geomorphology
j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s ev i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / g e o m o r p h

Relationship between the initiation of a shallow landslide and rainfall

intensityduration thresholds in Japan
Hitoshi Saito a,b,, Daichi Nakayama a, Hiroshi Matsuyama a
a
b

Department of Geography, Graduate School of Urban Environmental Sciences, Tokyo Metropolitan University, 1-1, Minami-Osawa, Hachioji, Tokyo 192-0397, Japan
Research Fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Japan

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history:
Received 18 September 2009
Received in revised form 15 December 2009
Accepted 23 December 2009
Available online 4 January 2010
Keywords:
Shallow landslides
ID threshold
Rescaling
Quantile regression
East Asian summer monsoon

a b s t r a c t
The empirical rainfall intensity and duration (ID) threshold for the initiation of shallow landslide is newly
dened for Japan where heavy rainfalls frequently occur during the East Asian summer monsoon season. The
rainfall causes sediment-related disasters annually. This paper presents an examination of 1174 rainfallinduced shallow landslides that occurred during 20062008. Their ID conditions were analyzed objectively
from rainfall data (Radar-Raingauge Analyzed Precipitation) to derive the ID threshold using the quantileregression method: I = 2.18 D 0.26, where I is measured in millimeters per hour and D in hours, as
measured from the beginning of rainfall to the landslide occurrence. Rainfall events are separated by the
absence of rainfall for 24 h. We then established a rescaled ID threshold by dividing the rainfall intensity by
the mean annual precipitation (MAP), as IMAP = 0.0007 D 0.21, where IMAP is the rescaled average per-hour
rainfall intensity. These thresholds were dened by the second percentile regression line for D of 3537 h.
The new thresholds are considerably lower than those previously reported for the world, humid subtropical
regions, the Asian monsoon region, and Japan. The result suggests that Japan is highly prone to rainfallinduced shallow landslides because of its high-relief topography, geologic conditions, human interference,
and rainfall characteristics during the East Asian summer monsoon season.
2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Rainfall-induced landslides often cause considerable damage to
society. To analyze the primary causes of landslides, it is necessary to
understand the relation between rainfall and the initiation of landslides
(Ibsen and Casagli, 2004; Hong et al., 2005; Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008).
Therefore, many studies have developed rainfall thresholds for landslide
initiation using an empirical model or a physical (process-based) model
(Onodera et al., 1974; Caine, 1980; Larsen and Simon, 1993;
Montgomery and Dietrich, 1995; Crozier, 1999; Glade et al., 2000;
Gabet et al., 2004; Aleotti, 2004; Chien-Yuan et al., 2005; Hong et al.,
2005; Matsushi and Matsukura, 2007; Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008;
Marques et al., 2008; Cannon et al., 2008; Crosta and Frattini, 2008;
Dahal and Hasegawa, 2008; Coe et al., 2008; Dahal et al., 2009; Chiang
and Chang, 2009). The empirical thresholds refer to statistical analysis of
the relation between rainfall and landslide occurrence (Caine, 1980;
Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008; Dahal and Hasegawa, 2008). For example,
Guzzetti et al. (2007) summarized rainfall, climatic variables, and their
empirically based thresholds for the whole world and various parts of it.

Corresponding author. Department of Geography, Graduate School of Urban

Environmental Sciences, Tokyo Metropolitan University, 1-1, Minami-Osawa, Hachioji,
Tokyo 192-0397, Japan. Tel.: +81 42 677 1111x3871; fax: +81 42 677 2589.
E-mail address: saitou-hitosi@ed.tmu.ac.jp (H. Saito).
0169-555X/$ see front matter 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2009.12.016

In the studies described above, rainfall intensity and duration,

cumulative event rainfall, and antecedent rainfall were the most
commonly investigated variables. Landslide initiation caused by heavy
rainfall has been related to rainfall intensity and duration (ID) (Caine,
1980; Aleotti, 2004; Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008; Cannon et al., 2008;
Dahal and Hasegawa, 2008; Coe et al., 2008). Antecedent rainfall also
plays an important role in landslide initiation (Guzzetti et al., 2007,
2008; Dahal and Hasegawa, 2008). Although it is important to observe
not only the amount of precipitation but also the (largely unknown)
amount of water that inltrates and moves into the ground (Caine,
1980; Reichenbach et al., 1998), ID thresholds are often used to predict
landslide occurrence and to warn appropriate authorities of potential
landslide hazards (Keefer et al., 1987; Aleotti, 2004; Hong et al., 2005;
Dahal and Hasegawa, 2008; Guzzetti et al., 2008; Coe et al., 2008;
Cannon et al., 2008).
Japan is situated in the East Asian monsoon region. The Japanese
archipelago is characterized by its high-relief topography and
complex geological conditions. Heavy rainfalls frequently occur in
Japan, especially during the summer monsoon season (Matsumoto,
1989, 1993; Matsumoto and Takahashi, 1999), causing sedimentrelated disasters such as shallow landslides and debris ows (Japan
Sabo Association, 2001). Many studies have therefore analyzed the
relation between rainfall and landslide initiation in Japan using
empirical and physical models, e.g. the tank model, which is a
conceptual rainfallrunoff model (Suzuki et al., 1979), the effective

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H. Saito et al. / Geomorphology 118 (2010) 167175

rainfall-hourly rainfall relation (Ministry of Construction, 1984), the

modied effective rainfall (Yano, 1990; Hiura et al., 2005), Soil Water
Index (Okada et al., 2001), the rainfall index Rf (Sasaki et al., 2001),
and the new rainfall index R (Nakai et al., 2006). For example,
Onodera et al. (1974) investigated slope failures caused by heavy
rainfall in Chiba and Kanagawa prefectures, and proposed three
empirical thresholds (lower, intermediate, and upper) to predict
slope failures from cumulative event rainfall and maximum rainfall
intensity.
Hong et al. (2005) identied the ID threshold of landslides in
Shikoku Island, Japan. They assessed the activity of four crystallineschist landslides using on-site monitoring of rainfall. Their results
indicate that rainfall thresholds are applicable as an empirical
standard to evaluate landslide hazards quantitatively. Matsushi and
Matsukura (2007) discussed the initiation of shallow landslides in the
Boso Peninsula, Japan, based on the ID relation, geotechnical
properties of hillslope materials and slope hydrological processes.
Dahal et al. (2009) compared ID values that triggered shallow
landslides on Shikoku with ID thresholds proposed by previous
studies. They found that the ID values were slightly higher than the
threshold established by Larsen and Simon (1993) for the humid
tropical region and those by Dahal and Hasegawa (2008) for the Asian
monsoon region (Table 1).
However, these studies in Japan analyzed only limited locations
and events (e.g., a mountainous debris torrent, a landslide event, or
an individual rainfall event). Few studies have addressed the
regional relation between the initiation of landslides and rainfalls in
Japan, although landslides are densely distributed throughout Japan
both spatially and temporally. Since rainfall-induced shallow landslides frequently occur in Japan, the relation between landslide
initiation and ID conditions is important for both scientic and social
interest.
The objective of this study is to analyze the rainfall conditions
responsible for shallow landslides, and to establish regional ID
thresholds for all of Japan. Shallow landslides reect not only rainfall
conditions but also topographic, geologic, and other circumstances.
Among these, rainfall conditions are a primary trigger and are
inuenced by regional climatic systems such as the East Asian
monsoon. This study therefore specically investigates the effect of
rainfall conditions on shallow landslides.
This examination included 1174 rainfall-induced shallow landslides
that occurred throughout Japan during 20062008 to determine the ID
and IMAP (I rescaled by mean annual precipitation: MAP) D thresholds
using the quantile-regression method (Koenker and Hallock, 2001;
Koenker, 2009). New thresholds were compared with those that had
been proposed for the world (Caine, 1980; Guzzetti et al., 2008), for
humid (sub)tropical and Asian monsoon regions (Chien-Yuan et al.,

2005; Guzzetti et al., 2008; Dahal and Hasegawa, 2008), and for Japan
(Jibson, 1989; Hong et al., 2005).
2. ID thresholds in previous studies
In this section, we review previously proposed ID thresholds. A
threshold is the minimum or maximum level of some quantity needed
for a process to take place or for a state to change (Reichenbach et al.,
1998; Guzzetti et al., 2007; Dahal and Hasegawa, 2008). For rainfallinduced landslides, a threshold is denable by rainfall conditions that
are likely to trigger landslides. The ID thresholds are usually obtained
by drawing minimum-level lines to the rainfall intensity (Y-axis) and
duration condition that causes landslides (X-axis) shown in Cartesian
semi-logarithmic, or double logarithmic coordinates (Guzzetti et al.,
2007).
Caine (1980) rst established a global ID threshold for shallow
landslides and debris ows based on 73 cases. The threshold curve is
expressed as
0:39

I = 14:82D

0:167bDb240;

where D is expressed in hours, and I is expressed in millimeters per hour

(Table 1). Recently Guzzetti et al. (2007) reviewed rainfall thresholds
worldwide; Guzzetti et al. (2008) proposed a new threshold curve
as
I = 2:20D

0:44

0:1bDb1; 000;

using 2626 rainfall events associated with shallow landslides and

debris ows. They also obtained thresholds for six different climate
regions of Kppen's system: Cfa, Cfb, Csa, Csb, Cwa, and H. Their
global threshold is lower than those of Caine (1980) or of other
previous studies, which is attributable to their larger dataset.
Regional ID thresholds were also identied in various parts of the
world: Taiwan (Chien-Yuan et al., 2005), the Nepal Himalayas (Dahal
and Hasegawa, 2008), Colorado and southern California (Coe et al.,
2008; Cannon et al., 2008), as well as Italy particularly and Europe in
general (Aleotti, 2004; Guzzetti et al., 2007). The ID threshold curve
for debris ows in Taiwan (Chien-Yuan et al., 2005) is expressed as
I = 115:47D

0:80

1bDb400;

and that for landslides in the Nepal Himalayas (Dahal and Hasegawa,
2008) is
0:79

I = 73:90D

5bDb720:

Table 1
ID threshold equations for the world, humid tropical regions, and Japan.
Reference

Area

Equation

Range (h)

Number in Fig. 7

Caine (1980)
Jibson (1989)
Guzzetti et al. (2008)

World
World
World
World
World

I = 14.82D 0.39
I = 30.53D 0.57
I = 2.20D 0.44
I = 2.28D 0.20
I = 0.48D 0.11

0.167 b D b 240
0.5 b D b 12
0.1 b D b 1000
0.1 b D b 48
48 D b 1000

1
2-W
3-1
3-2
3-3

Guzzetti et al. (2008)

Larsen and Simon (1993)
Chien-Yuan et al. (2005)
Cannon et al. (2008)
Dahal and Hasegawa (2008)

Cfa
Cfa
Puerto Rico
Taiwan
Southern California
Nepal Himalaya

I = 10.30D 0.35
I = 6.90D 0.58
I = 91.46D 0.82
I = 115.47D 0.80
I = 14.0D 0.5
I = 73.90D 0.79

0.1 b D b 48
0.1b D b 1000
2 b D b 312
1 b D b 400
0.167 b D b 12
5 b D b 720

3-4
35
4
5
6
7

Jibson (1989)
Hong et al. (2005)
This study

Japan
Shikoku Island, Japan
Japan

I = 39.71D 0.62
I = 1.35 + 55D 1.00
I = 2.18D 0.26

0.5 b D b 12
24 b D b 300
3 b D b 537

2-J
8

Cfa corresponds to the climate of humid subtropical east coast in Kppen's system.

H. Saito et al. / Geomorphology 118 (2010) 167175

Similar local scale ID thresholds for Japan were also proposed

(Table 1), such as
0:62

I = 39:71D

0:5bDb12

by Jibson (1989), and

1:00

I = 1:35 + 55D

24bDb300

by Hong et al. (2005) and Guzzetti et al. (2007).

3. Study area and data collection
3.1. Study area
Japan includes large and small islands, mainly Hokkaido, Honshu,
Shikoku, and Kyushu Islands (Fig. 1). It is situated along an active
tectonic belt, where four major plates (Pacic, Eurasian, Philippine
Sea, and North American) interact. The island chain is characterized
by a narrow and elongated shape, with mountains and hills occupying
a large share of the land (Fig. 1). The mountain ranges are often
bordered by faults with high vertical displacement rates, or are
heavily deformed by tight folds with a short wavelength (Kaizuka,
1987; Research Group for Active Faults of Japan, 1991). Consequently,
the local topographic relief in Japan is generally much greater than
that of other parts of the world (Katsube and Oguchi, 1999; Kawabata
et al., 2001; Oguchi et al., 2001a,b; Saito et al., 2009).
Heavy rainfall occurs frequently in Japan, where MAP is 500
7000 mm (Fig. 2). The southern part of Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu
Islands (western Japan) are characterized by high MAP values because
heavy rainfalls frequently occur during the East Asian summer
monsoon season (Matsumoto, 1989; Matsumoto and Takahashi,

169

1999). Two factors, the polar front and typhoons, account for such
heavy rainfalls (Mizukoshi, 1965; Okuta, 1968, 1970; Oguchi et al.,
2001a). The polar front persists over Japan generally in June and July,
the main rainy season (Bai-u). Typhoons usually hit Japan between
August and October, and often cause heavy rainfall. Fig. 2 shows that
MAP is also high on the northwest (Sea of Japan) side of Honshu
Island. In these areas, however, the high annual precipitation is
explained by heavy snowfall during the winter monsoon season
(Matsuyama, 1998; Shimamura et al., 2006).
Matsumoto (1993) examined the global distribution of daily
maximum precipitation records, noting that most of the Japanese
Islands and their surroundings have experienced a daily precipitation
of more than 300 mm at least once since the beginning of modern
meteorological observations. Some Japanese meteorological stations
have recorded daily precipitation of more than 1000 mm. Sustained
maximum daily rainfall at this level has seldom been recorded in
Europe and North America. The combination of such heavy rainfall
and steep topography in Japan results in widespread hillslope failures
and landslides (Oguchi et al., 2001a).

3.2. Landslide data

This study analyzed 1174 rainfall-induced shallow landslide
events that occurred during 20062008 (Fig. 3). We collected
landslide disaster data with the courtesy of the Erosion and Sediment
Control Department, River Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,
Transport and Tourism, Japanese Government.
The collected data include precise addresses of sites or villages
where shallow landslides occurred. To acquire geographic coordinates
(latitude and longitude) of these places, we used the CSV Address
Matching Service (Center for Spatial Information Science at the

Fig. 1. Elevation of Japan. Source: Digital Map 1 km Grid (Elevation), the Geographical Survey Institute of Japan.

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H. Saito et al. / Geomorphology 118 (2010) 167175

Fig. 2. Distribution of mean annual precipitation (MAP) compiled from the Radar-Raingauge Analyzed Precipitation during 20062008.

University of Tokyo, 2009). The data also include the exact or

approximate time of landslide occurrence.
A clear latitudinal gradient was found in the distribution of shallow
landslides (Fig. 3) which roughly corresponded to the distribution of
MAP (Fig. 2). Fig. 4 shows that most landslides occurred during June
September, i.e. the summer monsoon season in Japan (Matsumoto,
1989; Matsumoto and Takahashi, 1999).

data have precise site information (e.g., sometimes only the name of a
village). Okada et al. (2001) also reported that the Analyzed
Precipitation with a spatial resolution of 5 km is appropriate for
analyzing the relation between the initiation of landslides and rainfall
conditions.

3.3. Rainfall data

Both I and D were dened as the average rainfall intensity (mm h 1)

and the duration (h) from the beginning of a rainfall event to landslide
occurrence. Following methods used by the Ministry of Construction
(1984), we dened one rainfall event as the rainfall period delimited by
a non-rainfall period of more than 24 h.
We rst plotted ID values in double-logarithmic coordinates, and
dened the rainfall threshold as the level above which one or more
than one shallow landslide can be triggered (Guzzetti et al., 2007,
2008). A threshold curve in the form of I = D , where and are
constants, was used to determine the threshold, as in many previous
studies (Table 1, Caine, 1980; Aleotti, 2004; Chien-Yuan et al., 2005;
Hong et al., 2005; Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008; Cannon et al., 2008; Coe
et al., 2008; Dahal and Hasegawa, 2008).
The quantile-regression method (Koenker and Hallock, 2001;
Koenker, 2009) was adopted to determine the ID threshold
objectively. The data that were used might contain some errors.
Therefore, it is important to employ statistical methods (e.g.
quantiles) that are robust and resistant against errors and outliers
(Wilks, 2006). We performed quantile regressions in the 2nd, 5th,
10th, 20th, 30th, 40th, 50th, 60th, 70th, 80th, and 90th percentiles
following the method described for Guzzetti et al. (2007, 2008), using
the R package (ver. 2.8.0, R Development Core Team, 2009; Koenker,
2009). We emphasized the 50th and 2nd percentile regressions
among the analyses. The 50th percentile regression line was used to

We used Radar-Raingauge Analyzed Precipitation data (hereinafter designated as Analyzed Precipitation), obtained using the RadarAMeDAS (Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System) of the
Japan Meteorological Agency. Data were produced using radar
estimates and observation by raingauges densely distributed all
over Japan. The temporal resolution is 1 h, with spatial resolution of
5 km (19882000), 2.5 km (20012005), or 1 km (2006 to date). Not
only the resolution, but also the quality of the data has improved since
2006 because of the usage of more radar and raingauge data. For this
reason, this study specically examines the shallow landslide events
that occurred during 20062008.
The Japan Meteorological Agency and many previous studies have
already veried the accuracy of the Analyzed Precipitation (Yamamoto, 1991; Forecast Division, Forecast Department of the Japan
Meteorological Agency, 1995; Makihara et al., 1996; Makihara, 1996,
2007; Shimpo, 2001a,b). To evaluate rainfall conditions during 2006
2008, we compared MAP during 20062008 (Fig. 2) with that of
19892008. The ratio of the former to the latter is 0.93 (averaged over
the land), indicating that MAP in 20062008 was close to the average
condition of the past 20 years.
In this study, we changed the resolution of the Analyzed
Precipitation from 1 to 5 km before analysis because not all landslide

4. Identication of ID thresholds

H. Saito et al. / Geomorphology 118 (2010) 167175

171

Fig. 3. Distribution of 1174 rainfall-induced shallow landslide events that occurred during 20062008.

determine the general trend of rainfall ID conditions associated with

shallow landslides. The rainfall ID threshold was then determined by
the 2nd percentile regression line, based on Guzzetti et al. (2007,
2008).
A limitation of regional ID thresholds is that the threshold
determined for a specic region cannot be exported easily to
neighboring regions or similar areas because not only morphological

and lithological differences but also because of meteorological and

climatological variation (Jakob and Weatherly, 2003) other than I and
D of individual rainfall events (Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008). To offset
the latter effects, it is important to rescale rainfall intensity using MAP
(Aleotti, 2004; Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008; Dahal and Hasegawa,
2008). Therefore, we divided I by MAP to obtain rescaled I (IMAP) and
analyzed IMAPD conditions and thresholds by adopting the same
procedure as that used for the non-rescaled one.
5. Results
5.1. ID conditions and threshold
Fig. 5 depicts ID conditions associated with shallow landslides in
Japan (circles) and quantile-regression lines in double-logarithmic
coordinates. Values of D range from 3 to 537 h, and I from 0.17 to
32.6 mm h 1. Visual inspection of Fig. 5 reveals that many shallow
landslides occur when rainfall persists for 10200 h from the
beginning of rainfall.
The 50th percentile regression line
0:45

I = 22:1D

3bDb537 h

describes the trend of the relation between the initiation of shallow

landslides and rainfall conditions. Eq. (7) shows that, with an increase
in rainfall duration, the intensity that is likely to initiate shallow
landslides decreases. The same applies to the other quantileregression lines in which the value of the exponent () is between
0.16 and 0.53 (Fig. 5).
The ID threshold for Japan (2nd percentile regression line) is
Fig. 4. Monthly frequency of rainfall-induced shallow landslide events that occurred
during 20062008.

0:26

I = 2:18D

3bDb537 h:

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H. Saito et al. / Geomorphology 118 (2010) 167175

in lower quantile-regression lines (Fig. 6). The 50th percentile

regression line is expressed as
0:52

IMAP = 0:0114D

3bDb537 h:

As in Fig. 5, a decrease in IMAP with increasing D is apparent for all

quantile-regression lines, with exponent values of 0.18 to 0.64.
The IMAPD threshold for Japan (2nd percentile regression line) is
0:21

IMAP = 0:0007D

3bDb537 h:

10

This equation indicates that rainfall intensities of 0.20.610 3 of

MAP have the potential to initiate shallow landslides.
6. Discussion
6.1. Comparison with previously proposed ID thresholds

Fig. 5. ID conditions of shallow landslides in Japan (circles) and quantile regression

lines (2nd, 5th 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th, 50th, 60th, 70th, 80th, and 90th percentiles from
bottom to top). The 2nd percentile regression line depicts the ID threshold in this
study.

This threshold indicates that for rainfall events of shorter duration

(e.g. b 10 h), a rainfall intensity of 2.0 mm h 1 has the potential to
initiate shallow landslides. For a longer duration (e.g., N100 h), rainfall
intensity of about 0.5 mm h 1 also has the potential to cause
landslides.
5.2. IMAPD conditions and threshold
Fig. 6 presents IMAPD conditions in Japan. The range of rescaled
rainfall intensity is 8.60 10 5 to 1.00 10 2 (h 1) of MAP. The
rescaling slightly reduced the variation of rainfall intensity and result

Fig. 6. IMAPD conditions of shallow landslides in Japan (circles) and quantile regression
lines (2nd, 5th 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th, 50th, 60th, 70th, 80th, and 90th percentiles from
bottom to top). The 2nd percentile regression line depicts the IMAPD threshold in this
study.

The new ID thresholds for Japan were compared with those that
were proposed earlier (Figs. 7 and 8; Tables 1 and 2). These studies
determined ID and IMAPD thresholds using methods that mutually
differed. However, most thresholds were determined as the lower
boundary of rainfall conditions, permitting a direct comparison of
these thresholds (e.g. Aleotti, 2004; Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008;
Cannon et al., 2008; Dahal and Hasegawa, 2008). For this study, I and
D were dened as the average rainfall intensity (mm h 1) and the
duration (h) from the beginning of a rainfall event, which was
delimited by a non-rainfall period of more than 24 h, to landslide
occurrence.
Fig. 7 shows that the new ID threshold for Japan is lower than
other global, regional, and local thresholds. In particular, it is
signicantly lower than the thresholds of Jibson (1989) for Japan
and Hong et al. (2005) for Shikoku. The new threshold is also lower
than those for climatically similar regions such as humid tropical
(Larsen and Simon, 1993), Cfa (humid subtropical east coast)
(Guzzetti et al., 2008), and Asian monsoon regions (Chien-Yuan

Fig. 7. ID thresholds determined by this study (red one) and those of various studies
(presented in Table 1). Thick lines (black and gray): global thresholds. Thin lines (black
and gray): thresholds for humid (sub)tropics or Asian monsoon regions. Dashed line:
other regional thresholds. Blue lines: thresholds for Japan. 1, Caine (1980); 2-J and 2-W,
Jibson (1989); 3-1, Guzzetti et al. (2008); 0.1 b D b 1000; 3-2, Guzzetti et al. (2008),
0.1 b D b 48. 3-3, Guzzetti et al. (2008), 48 D b 1000; 3-4, Guzzetti et al. (2008), Cfa
(climate of humid subtropical east coast in Kppen's system), 0.1 b D b 48; 3-5, Guzzetti
et al. (2008), Cfa, 0.1 b D b 1000; 4, Larsen and Simon (1993); 5, Chien-Yuan et al.
(2005); 6, Cannon et al. (2008); 7, Dahal and Hasegawa (2008); 8, Hong et al. (2005).

H. Saito et al. / Geomorphology 118 (2010) 167175

173

Japan. In addition, these characteristics were determined using a

dataset larger than that of previous studies for Japan or the humid
(sub)tropical and Asian monsoon region (Hong et al., 2005; ChienYuan et al., 2005; Dahal and Hasegawa, 2008; Guzzetti et al., 2008).

6.2. Factors affecting ID conditions in Japan

Fig. 8. IMAPD thresholds determined by this study (red) and those of various studies
(presented in Table 2). Thick lines (black and gray): global thresholds. Thin lines (black
and gray): thresholds for humid (sub)tropics or Asian monsoon regions. Dashed line:
other regional thresholds. Blue lines: thresholds for Japan. 2-J and 2-W, Jibson (1989);
3-1, Guzzetti et al. (2008) 0.1b D b 1000; 3-2, Guzzetti et al. (2008) 0.1 b D b 48; 3-3,
Guzzetti et al. (2008) 48 D b 1000; 7, Dahal and Hasegawa (2008); 9, Cannon (1988)
2 b D b 24; 10, Bacchini and Zannoni (2003); 11-1 and 11-2, Aleotti (2004); 12-1,
Guzzetti et al. (2007) Central and Southern Europe; 12-2, Guzzetti et al. (2007) Mild
mid-latitude climates.

et al., 2005; Dahal and Hasegawa, 2008). The difference is greatest for
shorter durations and decreases with increasing duration, which is
attributed to the larger dataset used for this study: it includes both
large and small landslide events.
The new threshold is also lower than the global thresholds of Caine
(1980) and Jibson (1989), but resembles those of Guzzetti et al. (2008,
line No. 3-2 in Fig. 7) for the rainfall duration of 3 to 48 h. Fig. 8 shows
that the new IMAPD threshold is 10 to 103 times lower than those in
other studies, such as that for the world (Jibson, 1989; Guzzetti et al.,
2008), central and southern Europe, and the mild mid-latitude
climate (Guzzetti et al., 2007), Italy (Bacchini and Zannoni, 2003;
Aleotti, 2004), the Nepal Himalayas (Dahal and Hasegawa, 2008), and
Japan (Jibson, 1989). The difference between our ID (or IMAPD)
threshold and that of Guzzetti et al. (2008) is particularly large for
shorter duration (D 48); for longer durations, it is small.
The results presented above indicate that rainfall intensity with a
potential to initiate shallow landslides in Japan is the lowest in the
world. This is important information for assessing landslide hazards in

Fig. 5 shows that shallow landslide events are mainly associated

with rainfall durations of 10200 h. In particular, many shallow
landslides also occurred when rainfall persisted for more than 100 h.
These durations are longer than those of similar climatic regions such
as Cfa (humid subtropical east coast, Fig. 8a in Guzzetti et al., 2008).
This result is partly attributable to the denition of the rainfall
duration used in our study. In Japan, however, rainfall durations
sometimes exceed a week during the summer monsoon season.
Although some other studies dened rainfall thresholds for durations
longer than 100 h (Figs. 7 and 8), the landslide events for these longer
durations are few (e.g. Aleotti, 2004; Chien-Yuan et al., 2005; Guzzetti
et al., 2007, 2008).
Shallow landslide events occur predominantly during the summer
monsoon season in Japan (Fig. 4). Fig. 3 depicts that shallow landslide
events are mainly distributed in southwestern Japan, where heavy
rainfall is frequented by the polar front and typhoons (Mizukoshi,
1965; Okuta, 1968, 1970; Matsumoto, 1989, 1993; Matsumoto and
Takahashi, 1999), resulting in a high MAP (Fig. 2). Occurrence of
shallow landslides therefore corresponds to climatic characteristics of
Japan.
Factors other than climate are also responsible for the low ID
thresholds for Japan. Japan, located in an active tectonic belt, is
characterized by high-relief mountainous and hills (Fig. 1, Japan Sabo
Association, 2001; Oguchi et al., 2001a,b). Katsube and Oguchi (1999)
reported that the hillslope angle in the Japanese mountains tends to
be around 35, which is sufciently steep to initiate shallow landslides
(Yanai, 1989; Iida, 1999; Saito et al., 2009). Surveys of hillslopes in
steep ranges in central Japan revealed that most hillslope units were
created by shallow and deep landslides (Oguchi, 1996; Katsube and
Oguchi, 1999). Because of the frequent landslide occurrence, sediment
yields from Japanese mountains were equivalent to the world
maximum (e.g. Yoshikawa, 1974; Ohmori, 1983). Therefore, the ID
thresholds reect the topography of Japanese mountains and hills.
Geologic inuences on frequent landslides in Japan have also been
reported; rocks susceptible to landslides include granite (Chigira,
2001), pyroclastic ow deposits (Chigira et al., 2002; Chigira, 2002;
Chigira and Yokoyama, 2005), and sedimentary rocks (Chigira, 1992;
Chigira and Oyama, 2000). Rocks can be well-weathered under a
humid Japanese climate, favoring landslides and debris ows.
Furthermore, rocks in Japanese mountains are often deformed by
mass rock creep that forms folds, faults and fractures (Chigira, 1992),

Table 2
IMAPD threshold equations for the world, regional scales, and Japan.
Reference

Area

Equation

Range(h)

Number in Fig. 8

Jibson (1989)
Guzzetti et al. (2008)

World
World
World
World

IMAP = 0.02D 0.65

IMAP = 0.0016D 0.40
IMAP = 0.0017D 0.13
IMAP= 0.0005D 0.13

0.5 b D b 12
0.1 b D b 1,000
0.1 b D b 48
48 D b 1,000

2-W
3-1
3-2
3-3

Cannon (1988)
Bacchini and Zannoni (2003)
Aleotti (2004)

Dahal and Hasegawa (2008)

San Francisco
Cancia, Dolomites, Italy
Piedmont, Italy
Piedmont, Italy
Central and Southern Europe
Mild mid-latitude climates
Nepal Himalaya

D = 46.13.6 103IMAP + 7.4 104 (IMAP)2

IMAP = 0.74D 0.56
IMAP = 0.76D 0.33
IMAP = 4.62D 0.79
IMAP = 0.0064D 0.64
IMAP = 0.0194D 0.73
IMAP = 1.10D 0.59

2 b D b 24
0.1 b D b 100
2 b D b 150
2 b D b 150
0.1 b D b 700
0.1 b D b 700
5 b D b 720

9
10
11-1
11-2
12-1
12-2
7

Jibson (1989)
This study

Japan
Japan

IMAP = 0.03D 0.63

IMAP = 0.0007D 0.21

1 b D b 12
3 b D b 537

2-J

Guzzetti et al. (2007)

174

H. Saito et al. / Geomorphology 118 (2010) 167175

Such deformations also favor landslides (Chigira, 1992; Chigira and

Kiho, 1994).
Human-related factors also account for landslides in Japan. Many
mountainous and hilly areas in Japan have been developed for human
use. The resultant disturbances such as road construction often
engender shallow landslides (Ayalew and Yamagishi, 2005).
In summary, high-relief topography, geologic conditions, human
disturbances and rainfall characteristics during the East Asian summer
monsoon season together account for the notably low ID threshold
for Japan. In other words, Japan is highly prone to shallow landslides
compared to other regions of the world.

6.3. Limitations of the rainfall ID analysis

Figs. 5 and 6 show that ID conditions for Japan are characterized
by long rainfall duration, such as that longer than 100 h. However, ID
plots represent only average conditions of the rainfall event, and do
not necessarily reect high rainfall intensity at the time of shallow
landslide occurrence.
Fig. 9 depicts the relation between peak rainfall intensity and
rainfall duration from the beginning of a rainfall event to shallow
landslide occurrence. Although I and D show clear negative correlations (Figs. 5 and 6), the peak rainfall intensity is high for both short
and long durations, with an average peak of 40.7 mm h 1 (Fig. 9).
Heavy hourly rainfall frequently occurs in Japan (Onodera et al., 1974;
Suda, 1991; Dahal et al., 2009), and such an event is critical for
initiation of shallow landslides from both short and long rainfall
events.
Antecedent rainfall plays an important role in the gradual
saturation of the soil (Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008; Dahal and Hasegawa,
2008). Figs. 5 and 9 show that several shallow landslides occur during
low-intensity long-term rainfall events. Some rainfall events in the
summer monsoon season in Japan are characterized by their lowintensity but long duration. The role of antecedent rainfall in
triggering landslides in Japan therefore seems clear and important.
The observations described above point to some limitations of ID
analysis in relation to landslide initiation in humid climatic regions such
as Japan. Further studies are necessary to establish local-scale ID
thresholds considering the variation of rainfall intensity, antecedent
rainfall conditions and other variables such as topography and geology.

Fig. 9. Relation between rainfall duration and peak rainfall intensity from beginning of a
rainfall event to occurrence of a shallow landslide.

7. Conclusions
The empirical ID thresholds for initiating shallow landslides in
Japan were determined and compared with previously proposed
global, regional, and local thresholds. We examined 1174 rainfallinduced shallow landslides that occurred during 20062008 using
rainfall data of the Radar-Raingauges Analyzed Precipitation. The ID
thresholds were identied quantitatively using the quantile-regression method, which is robust and resistant to errors and outliers. To
compare the new ID threshold with those of other studies, we
rescaled I by dividing it by MAP. The results indicate that rainfall
intensities of 1.640.42 mm h 1 have the potential to initiate shallow
landslides in Japan, with rainfall duration of 3537 h. This threshold is
lower than those reported in almost all previous studies, meaning that
Japan is highly prone to landslides. The low threshold reects highrelief topography, geologic conditions, human interference, and shortbut-heavy, or gentle-but-long rainfall events that occur during the
East Asian summer monsoon season.
Acknowledgments
We thank the Erosion and Sediment Control Department, River
Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism,
Japanese Government, for allowing us to use their landslide disaster
data. We also thank Profs. Takashi Oguchi, David Alexander, and Nel
Caine for their valuable comments. This study was partially supported
by a Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Research Fellows, the Ministry of Education,
Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japanese Government (No.
20-6594).
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