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INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
Contents
Hatch
Overview of FeNi market
Demand analysis
Supply analysis
Conclusions
HATCH
S
E
R
V
I
C
E
S
SECTORS
Hatch Associates Limited, 2009
HATCH
700
600
(Yellow indicates regional hub)
India
Delhi
China
Beijing
Shanghai
120
Australia
Brisbane
Gladstone
Mackay
Melbourne
Newcastle
2300
Perth
Sydney
Townsville
Whyalla
Wollongong
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
Hatch counts many of the worlds major mining and steelmaking companies
and financial institutions among its core client base
Mining
Steel
Financial institutions
Alcan
ArcelorMittal
ADB
Alcoa
BlueScope Steel
Bank of America
Anglo American
Celsa
Bear Stearns
Assmang
CMC
CIBC
BHP Billiton
Tata/Corus Group
Citibank
De Beers
Evraz Group
Commonwealth Bank
ENRC
Gerdau Group
Credit Lyonnais
Falconbridge
Mechel
CSFB
Impala Platinum
Metalloinvest
Deutsche Bank
Lonmin
Metinvest
EBRD
Newmont Mining
Nucor
HSBC
Norilsk
POSCO
IFC
Placer Dome
Ruukki
JP Morgan Chase
QIT
Severstal
Mellon Bank
Rio Tinto
Shougang
SUAL
TMK
RBS
Vale Inco
U.S. Steel
UBS Warburg
Xstrata
voestalpine
World Bank
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
Contents
Hatch
Overview of FeNi market
Demand analysis
Supply analysis
Conclusions
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
Annual FeNi production is typically ~250kt, with BHP and Eramet the
largest producers in 2009
Global FeNi production by producer
1,600
-0.4%
5.9%
1,400
BHP
21%
Others
19%
-3.5%
1,200
1,000
Antam
5%
800
600
SMM
8%
2009
240kt
Eramet
17%
400
2.7%
-13%
-7%
Anglo
American
8%
200
0
2006
2007
FeNi
2008
Posco
9%
2009
Other
7
Pamco
13%
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
Ni demand by end-use
Foundry
3%
Other
6%
30
Plating
12%
Stainless steel
57%
25
6.95
8.18
Non-ferrous
14%
6.03
20
Alloy steel
8%
7.28
6.44
6.60
15
18.58
Alloy st eel
2%
10
16.23
15.39
16.09
15.35
2.31
2.38
2.67
3.23
2.95
2.60
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
14.47
5
Stainles s steel
98%
0
200
300
400
Other
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
Contents
Hatch
Overview of FeNi market
Demand analysis
Supply analysis
Conclusions
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
kt
09
2001
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
05
5,000
01
10
97
10,000
93
15
89
15,000
85
20
81
20,000
77
25
73
25,000
69
30
65
30,000
20 02
2003
2004
300
2005
400
2006
200
2007
Other
2008
2009
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
50
Taiwan
Kg per capita
40
30
South
Korea
20
Japan
10
Malaysia
China
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
kt
Appliances Industrial
& C atering applications
40,000
ABC
Tubemaking
Transport
0
0-1%
35,000
1-5%
30,000
5-10%
-20
25,000
5-10%
10-15%
-40
C hange 2001 - 20 08
20,000
300-series ratio
80%
15,000
10,000
60%
5,000
20
2001
20
12
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
20
20
01
40%
20 03
2005
2007
% 300-series
2009
2020
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
FeNi faces substitution threats from other refined nickel products and
secondary sources of nickel i.e. scrap
Breakdown of nickel consumption
by stainless steel mills
100%
NPI
90%
70%
80%
Scrap
60%
FeNi
70%
50%
60%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
Primary
20%
Nickel
Metal
20%
10%
10%
0%
Nickel units by source
0%
2001
2002
Global
13
2003
2004
USA
2005
Europe
2006
2007
China
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
Contents
Hatch
Overview of FeNi market
Demand analysis
Supply analysis
Conclusions
14
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
09
20
05
20
01
20
97
Investment
phase
19
93
19
89
85
19
81
Investment
phase
19
77
19
65
19
09
20
05
20
01
20
97
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
93
0
89
0.0
85
10
81
0.5
77
20
73
1.0
69
30
65
1.5
Investment
phase
19
40
Investment
phase
69
Investment
phase
19
Investment
phase
73
Mt
2.0
$000/
tonne
19
Ni production, mined
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
Capacity
Ambatovy
Laterite HPAL
60kt
Barro Alto
Laterite RKEF
36kt
Eagle (?)
Sulphide
10kt (?)
Fenix (?)
Laterite RKEF
23kt
Gladstone (?)
Laterite HPAL
63kt
Goro
Laterite HPAL
60kt
Koniambo
Laterite RKEF
60kt
Nonoc (?)
Laterite - HPAL
40kt (?)
Nunavik
Sulphide
12kt
Onca Puma
Laterite RKEF
52kt
Ramu
Laterite HPAL
31kt
Shevchenko
Laterite Heap
22kt
Tagaung Taung
Laterite RKEF
23kt
Vermelho (?)
Laterite HPAL
46kt
Laterite HPAL
60kt
16
2010
2011
2012
2013+
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
100%
Sulphides
27%
80%
60%
40%
Laterites
73%
20%
0%
19
9
19 2
9
19 3
9
19 4
9
19 5
9
19 6
9
19 7
9
19 8
9
20 9
0
20 0
0
20 1
0
20 2
0
20 3
0
20 4
0
20 5
0
20 6
07
20
0
20 8
09
Sulphides
Sulphides
Source: Hatch
Laterites
17
Lateri tes
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
18
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
Ni
Co
Fe
MgO
Oxides
High Fe, low MgO, low SiO2
Limonite
0.8 1.5
0.1 0.2
40 50
0.5 5
Transition
zone
1.5 4
0.02 0.1
25 40
5 15
Processing Dependent on
presence of clay minerals.
Typically hydrometallurgy
(HPAL, Heap, Caron)
5.5m
Silicates
Low Fe, high MgO, high SiO2
Saprolite
1.8 3
0.02 0.1
10 25
15 35
Processing Pyrometallurgy.
End product (FeNi, matte)
dependent on mineralogy
10m
Bedrock
0.3
0.01
19
35 45
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
Nickel ore
Laterites
Sulphides
Limonites
Source: Hatch
Saprolites
Surface mining
Surface mining
Proven technology
Unproven technology
Proven technology
Protracted startup
Large-scale operations
Expensive materials of
construction
Vulnerable to energy
costs
Slag disposal
20
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
Inputs
>1.5% saprolite
Saprolite = proven
processing technology
Hydrocarbons
Project management
Project phasing
Project team continuity
New technologies
Infrastructure
Ore mineralogy
Transportation
Road / Sea / Air
Magnesium content
Lower = less acid consumption
in hydrometallurgy
Conveyors / Pipelines
Difficulty of terrain / climate
Accommodation
Source: Hatch
Permits / Compensation
21
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
Contents
Hatch
Overview of FeNi market
Demand analysis
Supply analysis
Conclusions
22
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
Conclusions
Demand
Supply
Unproven technologies
23
INFORMA MINING & METALS 2ND EURO NICKEL CONFERENCE, 18-19TH MARCH 2010
Robert Cartman
Consultant
Fax
Mobile
+44 7813808240
rcartman@hatch-europe.com
24