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Student Guide

Modification History

Version

Date

Revision Description

V1.0

May 2011

For Release

All Rights Reserved

The copyright in this document is vested in NCC Education Limited. The document must not be

reproduced by any means, in whole or in part, or used for manufacturing purposes, except with the

prior written permission of NCC Education Limited and then only on condition that this notice is

included in any such reproduction.

Published by: NCC Education Limited, The Towers, Towers Business Park, Wilmslow Road,

Didsbury, Manchester M20 2EZ, UK.

Tel: +44 (0) 161 438 6200 Fax: +44 (0) 161 438 6240 Email: info@nccedu.com

http://www.nccedu.com

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CONTENTS

1.

2.

3.

Syllabus ....................................................................................................................... 7

4.

5.

5.1

Lectures........................................................................................................................ 9

5.2

Tutorials ........................................................................................................................ 9

5.3

6.

7.

Assessment .............................................................................................................. 11

Topic 1:

1.1

1.2

Timings ....................................................................................................................... 13

1.3

1.4

Topic 2:

2.1

2.2

Timings ....................................................................................................................... 19

2.3

2.4

Topic 3:

3.1

3.2

Timings ....................................................................................................................... 25

3.3

3.4

Topic 4:

4.1

4.2

Timings ....................................................................................................................... 29

4.3

4.4

Topic 5:

Differentiation 1 ........................................................................................................ 33

5.1

5.2

Timings ....................................................................................................................... 33

5.3

5.4

Topic 6:

Differentiation 2 ........................................................................................................ 37

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6.1

6.2

Timings ....................................................................................................................... 37

6.3

6.4

Topic 7:

7.1

7.2

Timings ....................................................................................................................... 41

7.3

7.4

Topic 8:

8.1

8.2

Timings ....................................................................................................................... 45

8.3

8.4

Topic 9:

9.1

9.2

Timings ....................................................................................................................... 49

9.3

9.4

Topic 10:

Linear Programming................................................................................................. 55

10.2 Timings ....................................................................................................................... 55

10.3 Private Study Exercises .............................................................................................. 56

10.4 Tutorial Exercises ....................................................................................................... 58

Topic 11:

11.2 Timings ....................................................................................................................... 59

11.3 Private Study Exercises .............................................................................................. 60

11.4 Tutorial Exercises ....................................................................................................... 62

Topic 12:

12.2 Timings ....................................................................................................................... 63

12.3 Private Study Exercises .............................................................................................. 64

12.4 Tutorial Exercises ....................................................................................................... 66

Equations and Statistical Tables ................................................................................................. 67

Management Statistics ........................................................................................................ 67

Probability ........................................................................................................................... 68

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Hypothesis Testing .............................................................................................................. 69

Fitting Data .......................................................................................................................... 70

Differentiation ...................................................................................................................... 71

Time Series ......................................................................................................................... 72

Probabilities under the Normal Distribution Curve ............................................................... 73

Percentage Points of the Student Distribution ..................................................................... 75

Critical Values for the 2 Distribution.................................................................................... 76

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Overview

1.

Mathematical models and data analysis are foundational within numerous disciplines of

management thought. Whether the focus is on understanding the broad economic environment,

carrying out market research, optimising the supply chain, diversifying financial risk or another area

of business practice, the requirement to be able to use analytical techniques is vital.

This module advances existing quantitative skills to a level in which students can formulate, use and

interpret mathematical models within a business context. An appreciation of the use of computer

software to support such models is also developed.

2.

Learning Outcomes

Assessment Criteria

statistics to inform business

decisions

1.2 Use index numbers when reviewing data

1.3 Compare and contrast sampling methods and techniques

1.4 Use confidence intervals to indicate the reliability of

estimates

1.5 Apply significance testing to business hypotheses

Analyse management

decisions using optimisation

techniques

2.2 Formulate a linear programme

2.3 Interpret the optimal and sensitivity results from the

solution of a linear programme.

approaches to business

forecasting

3.2 Perform a simple regression analysis

3.3 Evaluate results from a multiple regression analysis

3.4 Use time series analysis to predict future business

performance

Evaluate sequential

management decisions

decision

4.2 Solve a decision tree

3.

Syllabus

Syllabus

Topic No

Title

Introductory

management

statistics

Proportion

1/12

Content

Summary statistics

Data types

Index numbers

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2

Probability

distributions

1/12

Standard scores (Z-scores)

Probability distributions

Inferential statistics

1

1/12

Sampling distributions

Point estimates and confidence intervals

Introduction to hypothesis testing

Inferential statistics

2

1/12

Sampling approaches

Two sample t-test

Significance, error types, power

5

Differentiation 1

1/12

Rules of differentiation

Differentiation 2

1/12

Partial differentiation

The total derivative

Regression

analysis 1

1/12

Pearson correlation

Simple linear regression

Spearman correlation

Regression

analysis 2

1/12

Further regression models

Time series

analysis

1/12

Time series decomposition

o Additive and multiplicative models

o Centred moving averages

o Seasonal adjustment

Forecasting with time series

Exponential smoothing

10

Linear

Programming

1/12

Graphical solution of a linear programme

Sensitivity analysis

11

Linear

Programming with

Solver routines

1/12

Solving linear programmes with software

Interpreting the output

Extensions of linear programming: the integer

programme

12

Decision tree

analysis

1/12

Solving decision trees with rollback

Posterior probabilities within decision trees

Uncertainty

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4.

The UK National Occupational Standards describe the skills that professionals are expected to

demonstrate in their jobs in order to carry them out effectively. They are developed by employers

and this information can be helpful in explaining the practical skills you have covered in this module.

Related National Occupational Standards (NOS)

Sector Subject Area:

15.3 Business management

Related NOS:

BAD321 Organise and report data

BAD322 Analyse and report data

BAG127 Solve business problems

BAG128 Evaluate and solve business problems

5.

Suggested Learning Hours

Lectures:

Tutorial:

12

Private Study:

24

114

Total:

150

The teacher-led time for this module is comprised of lectures and tutorials. You will need to bring

this Student Guide to all classes for this module. The breakdown of the hours for each topic is given

in the topic notes below. Generally, the order of study should be to complete private study work

before tutorials as your private study work will be reviewed during the tutorial.

5.1

Lectures

Your lecturer will be presenting the basic knowledge and the theoretical concepts required for the

unit during this time. He/she will use PowerPoint slides during the lecture time and you will be

expected to take notes.

You will also be encouraged to be active during this time and discuss and/or practice the concepts

covered. Lectures will include question and answer elements to promote participation and to allow

your lecturer to check whether you understand the concepts they are covering.

5.2

Tutorials

These are designed to deal with the questions arising from the lectures and private study sessions.

You should think carefully beforehand about any areas in which you might need additional guidance

and support and use this time to discuss these with your teacher.

5.3

Private Study

This Student Guide also contains details of the private study exercises. You are expected to

complete these exercises to improve your understanding. Your tutor will set deadlines for the

completion of this work and go over the suggested answers with you. The deadlines will usually be

before the scheduled tutorials for that topic. Some of the private study tasks may require you to work

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in a small group so you will need to plan your time carefully and ensure that you can meet with your

group members to complete the work required before the deadline.

You should also use this time to revise the content of lectures to ensure understanding and conduct

extra reading (using the supplementary textbooks or other materials available in the library or

online). You should bring any questions to the tutorial for additional guidance and support.

6.

A selection of sources of further reading around the content of this module must be available in your

Accredited Partner Centres library. The following lists provide suggestions of some suitable

sources.

There are many textbooks in the business mathematics and related areas. The longer list provides

titles of those that include most of the aspects within this module. If possible it is useful to have

access to at least three different titles.

Additionally attention is drawn to useful websites in the private study sections for each of the topic

areas.

Buglear (2004), Quantitative Methods for Business - The A-Z of QM, Butterworth-Heinemann

ISBN-10: 0750658983

ISBN-13: 978-0750658980

Burton, Carol and Wall (2001), Quantitative Methods for Business and Economics, 2nd Edition,

Prentice Hall

ISBN-10: 0273655701

ISBN-13: 978-0273655701

Dewhurst (2006), Quantitative Methods for Business and Management, 2nd Edition, McGraw Hill

ISBN-10: 0077109023

ISBN-13: 978-0077109028

Lucey (2002), Quantitative Techniques, 6th Edition, Thomson Learning

ISBN-10: 1844801063

ISBN-13: 978-1844801060

Oakshott (2009), Essential Quantitative Methods for Business, Management and Finance, 4th

Edition, Palgrave McMillan

ISBN-10: 0230218180

ISBN-13: 978-0230218185

Waters (1998), A Practical Introduction to Management Science, 2nd Edition, Prentice Hall

ISBN-10: 0201178478

ISBN-13: 978-0201178470

Wisniewski (2010), Quantitative Methods for Decision Makers, 5th Edition, Prentice Hall

ISBN-10: 0273742663

ISBN-13: 978-0273742663

Neave (2011), Elementary Statistics Tables, 2nd Edition, Routledge

ISBN-10: 041556347X

ISBN-13: 978-0415563475

Short list:

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For topics 1, 2, 3, 4, 7 and 8:

Hinton (2004), Statistics Explained, 2nd Edition, Routledge

ISBN-10: 0415332850

ISBN-13: 978-0415332859

For topics 5 and 6:

Dowling (1990), Schaums Outline of Calculus for Business, Economics, and The Social Sciences,

Schaums Outlines

ISBN-10: 0070176736

ISBN-13: 978-0070176737

For topics 9, 10, 11 and 12:

Keast and Towler (2009), Rational Decision Making for Managers: An Introduction, Wiley and Sons

ISBN-10: 0470519657

ISBN-13: 978-0470519653

7.

Assessment

This module will be assessed by means of an examination worth 100% of the total mark. This

assessment will cover the learning outcomes and assessment criteria given above.

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Topic 1

Topic 1:

1.1

Learning Objectives

This topic provides an overview of the key concepts of data types, summary statistics and index

numbers.

On completion of the topic, you will be able to:

Recognise and use mode, median, mean, range, standard deviation and coefficient of variation

Calculate Laspeyres and Paasche index numbers

Use index numbers to calculate percentage changes and deflate series

1.2

Timings

Lectures:

1 hour

Private Study:

9.5 hours

Tutorials:

2 hours

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1.3

You should spend approximately 9.5 hours on the Private Study for this topic. You should use this

time to complete the exercises below as directed by your lecturer and to review the contents of this

topic.

Exercise 1:

Review the lecture material for this topic and discuss any confusion you have with other students.

List the points for which you remain uncertain and raise these in the tutorial. [You must still attempt

the other exercises below and take your answers to the tutorials.]

Exercise 2:

A shop records its daily sales over a one week period. Calculate the median, mean (), population

standard deviation () and coefficient of variation (CV);

148, 262, 164, 382, 246, 328, 126

Exercise 3:

Use MS Excel to check your answers to Exercise 2. Clue: look for the functions AVERAGE,

MEDIAN and STDEVP (or in Excel 2010 STDEV.P)

Exercise 4:

Calculate the Laspeyres and Paasche price indices for the following data. Take 2005 as the base

year.

year

litre of beer

price

quantity

litre of whiskey

price

quantity

litre of wine

price

quantity

2005

0.95

200

19.80

10

10.50

36

2006

0.99

150

20.39

12

11.15

48

2007

1.05

120

20.99

11

12.35

60

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Exercise 5:

Investigate the following sites;

http://go.worldbank.org/OK9RCLZQN0 (this is part of the Statistical Manual of the World Bank

Accessed 3rd March 2011)

www.usablestats.com/tutorials/basicStats (this comes from the Usable Statistics site. Accessed 3rd

March 2011)

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1.4

Tutorial Exercises

The tutorials for this topic will last for 2 hours. You can expect to spend some of this time discussing

your answers to the Private Study exercises with your lecturer and other students. Your lecturer will

then direct you on completing the tasks below.

Exercise 1:

The mean queuing (or waiting) time experienced by a customer with a single server is given by;

+

Where p is the mean time for the customer to be processed, a is the mean inter-arrival time between

customers, and CV are the respective coefficient of variations.

A newspaper kiosk takes on average 2 minutes to process a customer, with a standard deviation of

1 minute. A new customer arrives on average every 3 minutes with a standard deviation of 2

minutes. What is the typical time a customer waits to be served?

Exercise 2:

A price index series initially used 2001 as its base year; in 2006 the base year was updated. Link the

two series to create a single series with 2006 as the base year. Use the single series to calculate

annual percentage changes in price.

Year

base)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

100.00

100.30

103.97

105.73

106.33

110.21

base)

100.00

105.79

113.31

121.10

130.30

Exercise 3:

Show the equivalence of the Laspeyres price index formula to the weighted price relative formula.

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Exercise 4:

The lectures introduced the Laspeyres Price Index and the Paasche Price Index. What do you think

the formulae would be for the Laspeyres Quantity Index and the Paasche Quantity Index?

Exercise 5:

Calculate the Laspeyres and Paasche quantity indices for the following data. Take 2005 as the base

year.

year

litre of beer

price

quantity

litre of whiskey

price

quantity

litre of wine

price

quantity

2005

0.95

200

19.80

10

10.50

36

2006

0.99

150

20.39

12

11.15

48

2007

1.05

120

20.99

11

12.35

60

Exercise 6:

Review of Private Study Exercises.

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Topic 2

Topic 2:

2.1

Probability Distributions

Learning Objectives

This topic provides a brief reminder of the rules of simple probability and an overview of four

important probability distributions.

On completion of the topic, you will be able to:

Use key probability distributions

o Binomial distribution

o Poisson distribution

o Exponential distribution

o Normal distribution

Calculate z-scores.

2.2

Timings

Lectures:

1 hour

Private Study:

9.5 hours

Tutorials:

2 hours

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2.3

You should spend approximately 9.5 hours on the Private Study for this topic. You should use this

time to complete the exercises below as directed by your lecturer and to review the contents of this

topic.

Exercise 1:

Review the lecture material for this topic and discuss any confusion you have with other students.

List the points for which you remain uncertain and raise these in the tutorial. [You must still attempt

the other exercises below and take your answers to the tutorials.]

Exercise 2:

Investigate the following site.

www.usablestats.com/tutorials/basicStats2 (accessed 15th March 2011)

Exercise 3:

The economy is forecast to boom with probability 0.3, grow steadily with probability 0.5 or

experience recession with probability 0.2. The returns on each of two shares in such circumstances

are given below. Calculate the expected return (mean) and standard deviation for each share.

State

Boom

Grow

Recession

Probability

0.3

0.5

0.2

Share 1

Return

30%

5%

-20%

Share 2

Return

15%

10%

-10%

Exercise 4:

Type each of the following into a cell in Excel. Use the Excel Help facility to identify what the function

calculates.

a. =POISSON(3, 6, FALSE)

b. =POISSON(3, 6, TRUE)

c. =BINOMDIST(6, 10, 0.6, FALSE)

d. =BINOMDIST(6, 10, 0.6, FALSE)

e. =NORMSDIST(0)

f.

=NORMSDIST(-2.5)

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Exercise 5:

Use Excel to produce a normal distribution table, an example is shown over page. The table should

show P(Z z), with Z a random variable. Read z to the first decimal place from first column with the

second decimal place read along top row.

Then investigate the following sites;

http://econ.lse.ac.uk/ie/iecourse/ec220course_statstables0203.pdf (accessed 15th March 2011)

www.reading.ac.uk/ssc/publications/stats_tables.pdf (accessed 15th March 2011)

z

-3.00

-2.90

-2.80

-2.70

-2.60

-2.50

-2.40

-2.30

-2.20

-2.10

-2.00

-1.90

-1.80

-1.70

-1.60

-1.50

-1.40

-1.30

-1.20

-1.10

-1.00

-0.90

-0.80

-0.70

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

-0.00

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

0

0.0013

0.0019

0.0026

0.0035

0.0047

0.0062

0.0082

0.0107

0.0139

0.0179

0.0228

0.0287

0.0359

0.0446

0.0548

0.0668

0.0808

0.0968

0.1151

0.1357

0.1587

0.1841

0.2119

0.2420

0.2743

0.3085

0.3446

0.3821

0.4207

0.4602

0.5000

0.5000

0.5398

0.5793

0.6179

0.6554

0.6915

0.7257

0.7580

0.7881

0.8159

0.8413

0.8643

0.8849

0.9032

0.9192

0.9332

0.9452

0.9554

0.9641

0.9713

0.9772

1

0.0013

0.0018

0.0025

0.0034

0.0045

0.0060

0.0080

0.0104

0.0136

0.0174

0.0222

0.0281

0.0351

0.0436

0.0537

0.0655

0.0793

0.0951

0.1131

0.1335

0.1562

0.1814

0.2090

0.2389

0.2709

0.3050

0.3409

0.3783

0.4168

0.4562

0.4960

0.5040

0.5438

0.5832

0.6217

0.6591

0.6950

0.7291

0.7611

0.7910

0.8186

0.8438

0.8665

0.8869

0.9049

0.9207

0.9345

0.9463

0.9564

0.9649

0.9719

0.9778

2

0.0013

0.0018

0.0024

0.0033

0.0044

0.0059

0.0078

0.0102

0.0132

0.0170

0.0217

0.0274

0.0344

0.0427

0.0526

0.0643

0.0778

0.0934

0.1112

0.1314

0.1539

0.1788

0.2061

0.2358

0.2676

0.3015

0.3372

0.3745

0.4129

0.4522

0.4920

0.5080

0.5478

0.5871

0.6255

0.6628

0.6985

0.7324

0.7642

0.7939

0.8212

0.8461

0.8686

0.8888

0.9066

0.9222

0.9357

0.9474

0.9573

0.9656

0.9726

0.9783

3

0.0012

0.0017

0.0023

0.0032

0.0043

0.0057

0.0075

0.0099

0.0129

0.0166

0.0212

0.0268

0.0336

0.0418

0.0516

0.0630

0.0764

0.0918

0.1093

0.1292

0.1515

0.1762

0.2033

0.2327

0.2643

0.2981

0.3336

0.3707

0.4090

0.4483

0.4880

0.5120

0.5517

0.5910

0.6293

0.6664

0.7019

0.7357

0.7673

0.7967

0.8238

0.8485

0.8708

0.8907

0.9082

0.9236

0.9370

0.9484

0.9582

0.9664

0.9732

0.9788

4

0.0012

0.0016

0.0023

0.0031

0.0041

0.0055

0.0073

0.0096

0.0125

0.0162

0.0207

0.0262

0.0329

0.0409

0.0505

0.0618

0.0749

0.0901

0.1075

0.1271

0.1492

0.1736

0.2005

0.2296

0.2611

0.2946

0.3300

0.3669

0.4052

0.4443

0.4840

0.5160

0.5557

0.5948

0.6331

0.6700

0.7054

0.7389

0.7704

0.7995

0.8264

0.8508

0.8729

0.8925

0.9099

0.9251

0.9382

0.9495

0.9591

0.9671

0.9738

0.9793

5

0.0011

0.0016

0.0022

0.0030

0.0040

0.0054

0.0071

0.0094

0.0122

0.0158

0.0202

0.0256

0.0322

0.0401

0.0495

0.0606

0.0735

0.0885

0.1056

0.1251

0.1469

0.1711

0.1977

0.2266

0.2578

0.2912

0.3264

0.3632

0.4013

0.4404

0.4801

0.5199

0.5596

0.5987

0.6368

0.6736

0.7088

0.7422

0.7734

0.8023

0.8289

0.8531

0.8749

0.8944

0.9115

0.9265

0.9394

0.9505

0.9599

0.9678

0.9744

0.9798

6

0.0011

0.0015

0.0021

0.0029

0.0039

0.0052

0.0069

0.0091

0.0119

0.0154

0.0197

0.0250

0.0314

0.0392

0.0485

0.0594

0.0721

0.0869

0.1038

0.1230

0.1446

0.1685

0.1949

0.2236

0.2546

0.2877

0.3228

0.3594

0.3974

0.4364

0.4761

0.5239

0.5636

0.6026

0.6406

0.6772

0.7123

0.7454

0.7764

0.8051

0.8315

0.8554

0.8770

0.8962

0.9131

0.9279

0.9406

0.9515

0.9608

0.9686

0.9750

0.9803

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0.0011

0.0015

0.0021

0.0028

0.0038

0.0051

0.0068

0.0089

0.0116

0.0150

0.0192

0.0244

0.0307

0.0384

0.0475

0.0582

0.0708

0.0853

0.1020

0.1210

0.1423

0.1660

0.1922

0.2206

0.2514

0.2843

0.3192

0.3557

0.3936

0.4325

0.4721

0.5279

0.5675

0.6064

0.6443

0.6808

0.7157

0.7486

0.7794

0.8078

0.8340

0.8577

0.8790

0.8980

0.9147

0.9292

0.9418

0.9525

0.9616

0.9693

0.9756

0.9808

8

0.0010

0.0014

0.0020

0.0027

0.0037

0.0049

0.0066

0.0087

0.0113

0.0146

0.0188

0.0239

0.0301

0.0375

0.0465

0.0571

0.0694

0.0838

0.1003

0.1190

0.1401

0.1635

0.1894

0.2177

0.2483

0.2810

0.3156

0.3520

0.3897

0.4286

0.4681

0.5319

0.5714

0.6103

0.6480

0.6844

0.7190

0.7517

0.7823

0.8106

0.8365

0.8599

0.8810

0.8997

0.9162

0.9306

0.9429

0.9535

0.9625

0.9699

0.9761

0.9812

9

0.0010

0.0014

0.0019

0.0026

0.0036

0.0048

0.0064

0.0084

0.0110

0.0143

0.0183

0.0233

0.0294

0.0367

0.0455

0.0559

0.0681

0.0823

0.0985

0.1170

0.1379

0.1611

0.1867

0.2148

0.2451

0.2776

0.3121

0.3483

0.3859

0.4247

0.4641

0.5359

0.5753

0.6141

0.6517

0.6879

0.7224

0.7549

0.7852

0.8133

0.8389

0.8621

0.8830

0.9015

0.9177

0.9319

0.9441

0.9545

0.9633

0.9706

0.9767

0.9817

Title Here

2.10

2.20

2.30

2.40

2.50

2.60

2.70

2.80

2.90

3.00

0.9821

0.9861

0.9893

0.9918

0.9938

0.9953

0.9965

0.9974

0.9981

0.9987

0.9826

0.9864

0.9896

0.9920

0.9940

0.9955

0.9966

0.9975

0.9982

0.9987

0.9830

0.9868

0.9898

0.9922

0.9941

0.9956

0.9967

0.9976

0.9982

0.9987

0.9834

0.9871

0.9901

0.9925

0.9943

0.9957

0.9968

0.9977

0.9983

0.9988

0.9838

0.9875

0.9904

0.9927

0.9945

0.9959

0.9969

0.9977

0.9984

0.9988

0.9842

0.9878

0.9906

0.9929

0.9946

0.9960

0.9970

0.9978

0.9984

0.9989

0.9846

0.9881

0.9909

0.9931

0.9948

0.9961

0.9971

0.9979

0.9985

0.9989

Page 22 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

0.9850

0.9884

0.9911

0.9932

0.9949

0.9962

0.9972

0.9979

0.9985

0.9989

0.9854

0.9887

0.9913

0.9934

0.9951

0.9963

0.9973

0.9980

0.9986

0.9990

0.9857

0.9890

0.9916

0.9936

0.9952

0.9964

0.9974

0.9981

0.9986

0.9990

Title Here

2.4

Tutorial Exercises

The tutorials for this topic will last for 2 hours. You can expect to spend some of this time discussing

your answers to the Private Study exercises with your lecturer and other students. Your lecturer will

then direct you on completing the tasks below.

Exercise 1:

A new employee sits a preliminary Health and Safety examination. The examination consists of 10

multiple choice questions, wherein each question has four possible answers from which to choose.

The pass mark is 40%. What is the probability that the employee passes by guessing only?

Exercise 2:

Clients arrive at a point of service at a rate of 20 per hour. What is the probability of exactly 20

clients arriving in a given hour? What is the probability of 20 to 25 clients arriving in a given hour?

Assuming a client has just arrived, what is the probability that the next client arrives within 2

minutes? Assuming a client has just arrived, what is the probability that the next client arrives after 4

minutes have passed? (Assume client arrivals are described by the Poisson distribution.)

Exercise 3:

A company has supplied 10,000 projection lamps. Previous data indicates that the lifetime of the

projection lamps is approximately normally distributed with mean of 6000 hours and standard

deviation of 1000 hours. How many projection lamps are expected to fail in less than 5000 hours?

How many projection lamps are expected to last more than 8000 hours?

Exercise 4:

Review of Private Study Exercises

Page 23 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Title Here

Page 24 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Topic 3

Topic 3:

3.1

Inferential Statistics 1

Learning Objectives

On completion of the topic, you will be able to:

Use confidence intervals to indicate the reliability of estimates

Know when approximate large sample or exact confidence intervals are appropriate

3.2

Timings

Lectures:

1 hour

Private Study:

9.5 hours

Tutorials:

2 hours

Page 25 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Title Here

3.3

You should spend approximately 9.5 hours on the Private Study for this topic. You should use this

time to complete the exercises below as directed by your lecturer and to review the contents of this

topic.

Exercise 1:

Review the lecture material for this topic and discuss any confusion you have with other students.

List the points for which you remain uncertain and raise these in the tutorial. [You must still attempt

the other exercises below and take your answers to the tutorials.]

Exercise 2:

A cruise ship was interested in the typical duration each client spent in the breakfast buffet. The

entry and exit times of 30 cruisers was noted. The time spent at breakfast for the 30 were:

43

35

39

34

34

33

35

36

25

42

28

18

43

34

38

38

41

19

39

19

36

24

40

31

30

21

27

44

29

18

Calculate an approximate 99% confidence interval for the mean breakfasting time.

Exercise 3:

A country is due to hold a referendum on a constitutional change. A market research company

asked 1,112 people whether they would vote yes or no. 667 of the people polled indicated that

they would vote yes. Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of the electorate that

will vote yes.

Page 26 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Title Here

Exercise 4:

Use Excel to produce a table of percentage points of the Student t-distribution.

1

5.00%

2.50%

1.00%

0.50%

2 10.00%

90.00%

5.00%

95.00%

2.00%

98.00%

1.00%

99.00%

= n-1

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

2.9200

4.3027

6.9646

9.9248

2.3534

3.1824

4.5407

5.8409

2.1318

2.7764

3.7469

4.6041

2.0150

2.5706

3.3649

4.0321

1.9432

2.4469

3.1427

3.7074

1.8946

2.3646

2.9980

3.4995

1.8595

2.3060

2.8965

3.3554

1.8331

2.2622

2.8214

3.2498

1.8125

2.2281

2.7638

3.1693

1.7959

2.2010

2.7181

3.1058

1.7823

2.1788

2.6810

3.0545

1.7709

2.1604

2.6503

3.0123

1.7613

2.1448

2.6245

2.9768

1.7531

2.1314

2.6025

2.9467

1.7459

2.1199

2.5835

2.9208

1.7396

2.1098

2.5669

2.8982

1.7341

2.1009

2.5524

2.8784

1.7291

2.0930

2.5395

2.8609

1.7247

2.0860

2.5280

2.8453

Exercise 5:

Investigate the following site (sections 1 to 4 and 10).

http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/confidence_intervals.html (accessed 21st March 2011)

Page 27 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Title Here

3.4

Tutorial Exercises

The tutorials for this topic will last for 2 hours. You can expect to spend some of this time discussing

your answers to the Private Study exercises with your lecturer and other students. Your lecturer will

then direct you on completing the tasks below.

Exercise 1:

The mean time taken for 20 workers to each complete a similar task was found to be 1 hour 12

minutes. The sample standard deviation was calculated as 14 minutes 20 seconds. Assuming the

data is taken from a normally distributed population calculate an exact 99% CI of the mean.

Exercise 2:

Using the people in your tutorial group calculate 95% and 99% confidence intervals for the height of

a human. State any assumptions you make.

Exercise 3:

Review of Private Study Exercises.

Page 28 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Topic 4

Topic 4:

4.1

Inferential Statistics 2

Learning Objectives

On completion of the topic, you will be able to:

Perform a two sample t-test

Interpret significance probabilities

Perform a chi-squared goodness of fit test

4.2

Timings

Lectures:

1 hour

Private Study:

9.5 hours

Tutorials:

2 hours

Page 29 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Title Here

4.3

time to complete the exercises below as directed by your lecturer and to review the contents of this

topic.

Review the lecture material for this topic and discuss any confusion you have with other students.

List the points for which you remain uncertain and raise these in the tutorial. [You must still attempt

the other exercises below and take your answers to the tutorials.]

Exercise 2:

A company will consider opening a new branch of its restaurant chain within a town if the mean

amount spent per head when dining out is greater than 30. A lower figure would not match the

companys offering. One Saturday evening, market researchers successfully questioned 16 people

who had dined out in the town and found a sample mean of 32.50 and sample standard deviation

of 4.76. Test the following hypotheses at the 5% significant level.

H0: 30

H1: > 30

Exercise 3:

A fair trading investigation is being carried out in the European Union. As a first step the selling price

(before tax) of a particular car model is being compared in two member countries. The following data

have been collected:

Country 1:

22 cars, sample mean 14,500 euros, sample standard deviation 725 euros

Country 2:

18 cars, sample mean 14,000 euros, sample standard deviation 550 euros

The null hypothesis is that the mean selling price is equivalent in both countries. Test the null

hypothesis at the 1% and 5% significance levels.

Exercise 4:

Study and critique the following website;

www.usablestats.com/tutorials/twoSamplet (accessed 11th April 2011)

Study the hypothesis testing material at http://stattek.com;

http://stattrek.com/Lesson5/HypothesisTesting.aspx (accessed 11th April 2011)

Page 30 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Title Here

4.4

Tutorial Exercises

your answers to the Private Study exercises with your lecturer and other students. Your lecturer will

then direct you on completing the tasks below.

Exercise 1:

A software call centre wishes to improve its efficiency in solving clients questions.

Eight workers were selected at random to undertake additional training. Before and after training the

performance of the workers was monitored. Calculate the mean number of solved problems per day,

before and after training. Test the following hypotheses at the 5% significant level;

H0: Mean increase in performance 0

H1: Mean increase in performance > 0

solved problems per day

before training

following training

Worker 1

Worker 2

Worker 3

Worker 4

Worker 5

Worker 6

Worker 7

Worker 8

50

63

57

45

40

62

64

53

55

66

58

49

38

67

69

50

Exercise 2:

Label

Market research questioned 1085 managers about their preferred fashion brand and their career

level. Are these associated?

Fashion Brand 1

Fashion Brand 2

Other

Career Level

Trainee

Junior

Middle

245

93

30

221

110

77

185

122

2

Exercise 3:

Review of Private Study Exercises.

Page 31 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Title Here

Page 32 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Topic 5

Topic 5:

5.1

Differentiation 1

Learning Objectives

This topic provides an overview of gradient, the definition of the derivative and the rules of

differentiation.

On completion of the topic, you will be able to:

Use the rules of differentiation

Relate differentiation to optimization

o Obtain the economic order quantity formula

5.2

Timings

Lectures:

1 hour

Private Study:

9.5 hours

Tutorials:

2 hours

Page 33 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

5.3

time to complete the exercises below as directed by your lecturer and to review the contents of this

topic.

Review the lecture material for this topic and discuss any confusion you have with other students.

List the points for which you remain uncertain and raise these in the tutorial. [You must still attempt

the other exercises below and take your answers to the tutorials.]

Exercise 2:

For each case differentiate y with respect to x.

a.

= 2 b. = 5 4 c. = 2 2 d. =

f. =

Ad

e. =

1

+

+7

Exercise 3:

Watch the following video from the http://mathcentre.ac.uk site;

(accessed 7th March 2011)

http://mathcentre.ac.uk/video/1086/

Exercise 4:

For each case differentiate y with respect to x.

a.

= 2 (3 2 + 2) b. = 2 c.

e. = (2 + 5)10

f. =

2 ++1

d.

= ( 2 )

Exercise 5:

The following sections of the http://mathcentre.ac.uk (accessed 7th March 2011) site provide useful

material for further practice.

http://mathcentre.ac.uk/resources/Refresher%20Booklets/basic%20diff%20refresh1Emathcentre/fin

al0203-ltsn-basicdiff.pdf

http://mathcentre.ac.uk/video/426/

Page 34 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

http://mathcentre.ac.uk/resources/uploaded/mc-ty-diffxtothen-2009-1.pdf

http://mathcentre.ac.uk/video/425/

http://mathcentre.ac.uk/resources/uploaded/mc-ty-firstppls-2009-1.pdf

http://mathcentre.ac.uk/video/411/

http://mathcentre.ac.uk/resources/uploaded/mc-ty-maxmin-2009-1.pdf

There is much other helpful material on the http://mathcentre.ac.uk site.

Page 35 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

5.4

Tutorial Exercises

your answers to the Private Study exercises with your lecturer and other students. Your lecturer will

then direct you on completing the tasks below.

Exercise 1:

EdTec Ltd sells basic oscilloscopes to educational customers. A combined project by the marketing

and operations team has identified the following expressions to represent demand and total cost

curves (in GBP).

price = 5000 4

Write down an expression for the annual profit, and show this on a graph. Differentiate profit to

determine the annual quantity, x, that EdTec produce to maximise profit? What is that profit?

Exercise 2:

Assume that average revenue has a downward sloping linear curve;

= c k,

Where c and k are constants and the variable x is the quantity of goods sold. Use differentiation to

show that the marginal revenue curve, MR, is downward sloping with twice the gradient of the AR

curve.

Exercise 3:

Review of Private Study Exercises.

Page 36 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Topic 6

Topic 6:

6.1

Differentiation 2

Learning Objectives

This topic provides an overview of partial differentiation and, briefly the total differential.

On completion of the topic, you will be able to:

Relate partial differentiation to optimization

Calculate partial point elasticities

Recognise the total differential

6.2

Timings

Lectures:

1 hour

Private Study:

9.5 hours

Tutorials:

2 hours

Page 37 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

6.3

time to complete the exercises below as directed by your lecturer and to review the contents of this

topic.

Review the lecture material for this topic and discuss any confusion you have with other students.

List the points for which you remain uncertain and raise these in the tutorial. [You must still attempt

the other exercises below and take your answers to the tutorials.]

Exercise 2:

For each case find the partial derivatives of z with respect to x and y.

a. = a 2 + b + c + d 2

b. = e2+3

c. =

(+)2

(3+)

Exercise 3:

For each case find the partial derivatives of z with respect to x and y.

a. = 2 + 2 10 10 + 50

b. = 2 + 2 + 10 10 + 50

c. = 2 2 + 10 + 10 + 50

Find the values of x and y such that both partial derivatives are zero. Use Excel to produce 3D

surface plots of each case, and interpret the result.

Exercise 4:

The following sites (accessed 11th March 2011) provide useful material for further practice.

www.metalproject.co.uk/METAL/Resources/Films/Differential_equations/#film501

www.analyzemath.com/calculus.html#multivariable

Page 38 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

6.4

Tutorial Exercises

your answers to the Private Study exercises with your lecturer and other students. Your lecturer will

then direct you on completing the tasks below.

Exercise 1:

Use differentiation to find a relationship between marginal revenue and own price elasticity.

Exercise 2:

Use partial differentiation to find expressions for own and cross price elasticities for the demand

function;

1 = 250 81 + 52

Assuming brand 2 has a price of p2 = 80, evaluate the own price elasticity for p1 = 20, 40 and

60.

Exercise 3:

Find own and cross price elasticities for the demand function;

1 = a1 2

Exercise 4:

A company sells a product at price P per unit, whether drop shipped or from held inventory. The

annual demand, D, for the product is known for sure. Inspired by the classic economic order quantity

model, the company has built an initial model to determine what proportion of the demand for

product, x, should be met from inventory, and the order quantity, Q. The company has collected data

for

Cd the cost of purchasing a unit of the product inclusive of drop shipping

Ci the cost of purchasing a unit of the product from a wholesaler plus shipping from inventory to

end customer

Co ordering cost

Ch annual holding cost for one unit.

The initial model for profit, , is described by the equation;

Page 39 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

= PD DCi (1 )DCd

DCo Ch

By differentiating profit with respect to x and Q find expressions for the optimum fraction of demand

met from inventory and the optimum order quantity.

Exercise 5:

Review of Private Study Exercises.

Page 40 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Topic 7

Topic 7:

7.1

Regression Analysis 1

Learning Objectives

On completion of the topic, you will be able to:

Calculate and interpret Pearsons correlation coefficient

Calculate and interpret Spearmans correlation coefficient

7.2

Timings

Lectures:

1 hour

Private Study:

9.5 hours

Tutorials:

2 hours

Page 41 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

7.3

time to complete the exercises below as directed by your lecturer and to review the contents of this

topic.

Review the lecture material for this topic and discuss any confusion you have with other students.

List the points for which you remain uncertain and raise these in the tutorial. [You must still attempt

the other exercises below and take your answers to the tutorials.]

Exercise 2:

A hand car wash service has been monitoring its daily demand as it has changed price. Calculate

the simple linear regression line and the Pearson correlation coefficient.

Price per Wash

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

Number Cars

105

113

99

94

87

Exercise 3:

a. An advertising company decides which adverts to place in particular magazines. To aid this

decision the company studies the response of subjects to adverts. One study examines the

relationship between subject age and response. For one advert design, the results of a very

small pilot study are below. Calculate the rank coefficient of correlation.

Person

Anastasia

Beryl

Cheryl

Deborah

Elizabeth

Age Band

15-29

25-34

35-44

45-54

>54

Attitude

very good

neither good nor poor

good

very poor

poor

b. A separate study for another advert resulted in the following data. Calculate the rank

coefficient of correlation.

Person

Alan

Bertie

Christopher

Dennie

Eric

Frank

Age Band

15-29

25-34

35-44

25-34

45-54

>54

Page 42 of 76

Attitude

very good

neither good nor poor

good

good

poor

poor

Exercise 4:

Calculate the simple regression line and the coefficient of determination for each of the following

four data sets (Anscombe, 1973). Describe your findings.

Set A

x

10

8

13

9

11

14

6

4

12

7

5

Set B

y

8.04

6.95

7.58

8.81

8.33

9.96

7.24

4.26

10.84

4.82

5.68

x

10

8

13

9

11

14

6

4

12

7

5

Set C

y

9.14

8.14

8.74

8.77

9.26

8.1

6.13

3.1

9.13

7.26

4.74

x

10

8

13

9

11

14

6

4

12

7

5

Set D

y

7.46

6.77

12.74

7.11

7.81

8.84

6.08

5.39

8.15

6.42

5.73

x

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

19

8

8

8

y

6.58

5.76

7.71

8.84

8.47

7.04

5.25

12.5

5.56

7.91

6.89

Reference:

Anscombe, FJ. (1973). Graphs in Statistical Analysis The American Statistician 27(1),17-21.

Exercise 5:

Investigate the Excel function TREND.

Investigate the Excel options for adding trend lines to scatter graphs. (First produce a scatter graph.

Excel 2010: Single click on scatter graph. Drop down menu from Chart tools / Layout / Trendline.

Excel 2003: Single click on scatter graph. Chart / Add Trendline.)

Exercise 6:

Study the following pages at http://stattrek.com

http://stattrek.com/AP-Statistics-1/Correlation.aspx (accessed 9th April 2011)

http://stattrek.com/AP-Statistics-1/Regression.aspx (accessed 9th April 2011)

Page 43 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

7.4

Tutorial Exercises

your answers to the Private Study exercises with your lecturer and other students. Your lecturer will

then direct you on completing the tasks below.

Exercise 1:

Use differentiation to minimise the SSE and so derive the simple regression formulae for the

gradient m and the intercept c.

Suggested Answer:

Exercise 2:

Show that the total variation can be expressed as the sum of unexplained and explained variation.

Exercise 3:

Review of Private Study Exercises.

Page 44 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Topic 8

Topic 8:

8.1

Regression Analysis 2

Learning Objectives

This topic provides an overview of multiple regression and its extension with dummy variables. The

topic is set at a level suitable for a future general manager, rather than a statistician or

econometrician.

On completion of the topic, you will be able to:

Interpret results from regression analysis

Recognize the possibility to extend regression analysis

8.2

Timings

Lectures:

1 hour

Private Study:

9.5 hours

Tutorials:

2 hours

Page 45 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

8.3

time to complete the exercises below as directed by your lecturer and to review the contents of this

topic.

Review the lecture material for this topic and discuss any confusion you have with other students.

List the points for which you remain uncertain and raise these in the tutorial. [You must still attempt

the other exercises below and take your answers to the tutorials.]

Exercise 2:

Data has been collected for advertised house prices in regions over a city.

Property

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Price

507

488

314

231

280

503

288

418

291

356

342

490

Area

156

167

104

73

110

210

95

164

121

155

178

200

Land School

1690

3

888

1

759

3

792

4

630

2

655

1

1000

2

902

2

1185

3

780

1

600

3

1234

1

Region

R1

R1

R1

R1

R2

R2

R2

R2

R3

R3

R3

R3

Give an expected value for the advertised house price of a property with the following

characteristics: Area = 150, Land = 850, School = 1.5 and Region = R3. Explain your answer

carefully.

Exercise 3:

Plastic Sheds Ltd. wish to develop a demand function for their acrylic garden sheds. Develop the

demand function based on the data below. All other things being equal, what would be the effect of

a 100 decrease in the price of the competitor product?

Quarterly

Quantity

1990

Own

Price

()

750

Competitor

Price ()

Median

Income ()

860

18025

Page 46 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

1960

2090

2080

2030

2100

2110

2170

2160

2090

2100

2190

600

840

790

660

830

730

850

760

600

630

740

730

820

770

730

870

700

790

690

630

690

680

18151

18278

18406

18535

18665

18796

18928

19060

19193

19327

19462

Exercise 4:

Two alternative presentations of multiple regression are at;

www.statsoft.com/textbook/multiple-regression (accessed 14th April 2011)

http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/prediction.html (accessed 14th April 2011)

A more advanced presentation can be found out;

http://simon.cs.vt.edu/SoSci/converted/MRegression/ (accessed 14th April 2011)

Page 47 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

8.4

Tutorial Exercises

your answers to the Private Study exercises with your lecturer and other students. Your lecturer will

then direct you on completing the tasks below.

Exercise 1:

A healthcare service provider calculates a performance index in a way mandated by government.

Each staff member within the organization is classed as either Supervisory or Frontline. As a

consultant you have been asked to develop a model relating the performance index to the numbers

of Supervisory and Frontline staff. You have been provided with data from 10 of the service

providers centres.

Centre

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

Performance

Index

36

34

28

37

46

45

30

57

40

57

Supervisory

Staff

310

388

240

359

723

470

471

657

510

677

Frontline

Staff

7010

4405

3501

3619

3098

5136

1260

4517

4319

5104

Exercise 2:

For the set of data investigated in Exercise 1, create a third variable FxS by multiplying the number

of Frontline and Supervisory staff for each case. Construct two more regression models. For the

first include the variables Frontline and FxS, for the second include Supervisory and FxS.

Exercise 3:

Review of Private Study Exercises.

Page 48 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Topic 9

Topic 9:

9.1

Learning Objectives

This topic provides an overview of time series analysis, with particular focus on decomposition and a

brief introduction to exponential smoothing.

On completion of the topic, you will be able to:

Deseasonalise data using additive or multiplicative decomposition.

Apply simple exponential smoothing.

9.2

Timings

Lectures:

1 hour

Private Study:

9.5 hours

Tutorials:

2 hours

Page 49 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

9.3

time to complete the exercises below as directed by your lecturer and to review the contents of this

topic.

Review the lecture material for this topic and discuss any confusion you have with other students.

List the points for which you remain uncertain and raise these in the tutorial. [You must still attempt

the other exercises below and take your answers to the tutorials.]

Exercise 2:

A fruit stall operates at the exit of a London tube station. Its sales figures are given below.

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

Day 4

08:30 to 11:30

218.00

212.00

200.00

193.00

11:30 to 14:30

112.00

116.00

115.00

92.00

14:30 to 17:30

59.00

66.00

67.00

55.00

Use a 3 point moving average to smooth the data. Plot the time series, Y, and the trend, T. On a

separate graph plot Y-T. Calculate appropriate seasonal adjustments.

Exercise 3:

Over the past four years the hotel zone of a popular Latin American tourist destination has been

increasing its number of rooms. During this period of change the local tourism office has tracked

occupancy rates. Extract the trend-cycle and seasonality adjustments from the data. (Use CMA4

and multiplicative decomposition). Plot and discuss any graphs that you think are relevant. What

other data would be useful to characterise quantitative changes in the hotel zone?

2007

2008

Q1

Y (Occupancy Rate %)

86

Q2

85

Q3

83

Q4

91

Q1

87

Q2

77

Q3

78

Q4

89

Page 50 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

2009

2010

Q1

79

Q2

67

Q3

78

Q4

78

Q1

73

Q2

69

Q3

59

Q4

73

Exercise 4:

Study the following sites.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (www.abs.gov.au) discusses time series decomposition and the

importance of seasonality. In particular the section The Basics is a useful read at:

www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/7d12b0f6763c78caca257061001cc588/af6b411c65fbe6b8ca25

71090080a510!OpenDocument accessed 2nd April 2011.

A brief overview of exponential smoothing is given in the Engineering Statistics Handbook of NIST,

an agency of the US Department of Commerce, at:

www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/pmc/section4/pmc431.htm

Page 51 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

9.4

Tutorial Exercises

your answers to the Private Study exercises with your lecturer and other students. Your lecturer will

then direct you on completing the tasks below.

Exercise 1:

The number of rats captured in a grain store are summarised below. Use simple exponential

smoothing with = 0.2 and = 0.7 to forecast the number of rats that will be caught in week 7.

Week

week 1

week 2

week 3

week 4

week 5

week 6

Rats

216

224

217

233

245

229

Exercise 2:

Calculate the mean squared error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for the sales data and

forecast figures below.

Sales

January

2910

February

2990

March

2837

April

3015

May

3069

June

2996

July

3268

August

3580

September

3236

October

3308

Forecast 1

2910

2910

2926

2908

2929

2957

2965

3026

3137

3157

Forecast 2

2910

2910

2958

2885

2963

3027

3008

3164

3414

3307

Page 52 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Exercise 3:

Locate an inflation adjusted House Price Index, such as that available from the UKs Nationwide

building society, www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical.htm. Investigate your time series using Excel

and, for example a 12 point Centred Moving Average.

Exercise 4:

Review of Private Study Exercises.

Page 53 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Page 54 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Topic 10

Topic 10: Linear Programming

10.1 Learning Objectives

This topic provides an overview of Linear Programming, with a particular focus on graphical solution

of a 2 variable problem.

On completion of the topic, you will be able to:

Formulate a two variable linear programme

Find a graphical solution to a two variable linear programme

Appreciate the process of sensitivity analysis

10.2 Timings

Lectures:

1 hour

Private Study:

9.5 hours

Tutorials:

2 hours

Page 55 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

You should spend approximately 9.5 hours on the Private Study for this topic. You should use this

time to complete the exercises below as directed by your lecturer and to review the contents of this

topic.

Review the lecture material for this topic and discuss any confusion you have with other students.

List the points for which you remain uncertain and raise these in the tutorial. [You must still attempt

the other exercises below and take your answers to the tutorials.]

Exercise 2:

Solve the following simultaneous equations;

a. Y = 5, 6X + 7Y = 210

b. Y = 5, 7X + 15Y = 525

c. 7X + 15Y = 525, 5X + 28Y = 700

d. 6X + 7Y = 210, 5X + 28Y = 700

Exercise 3:

Minimise: cost = 9X + 3Y

Subject to the following constraints:

Constraint 1: Y 5

Constraint 2: 6X +7Y 210

Constraint 3: 7X +15Y 525

Constraint 4: 5X +28Y 700

Constraint 5: X, Y 0

Which constraints are binding and which are non-binding?

Exercise 4:

Use the web to find and study some presentations of the graphical solution of linear programming

problems. For example:

Page 56 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

www.msubillings.edu/BusinessFaculty/Harris/LP_Problem1.htm accessed 4th April 2011.

Page 57 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

The tutorials for this topic will last for 2 hours. You can expect to spend some of this time discussing

your answers to the Private Study exercises with your lecturer and other students. Your lecturer will

then direct you on completing the tasks below.

Exercise 1:

Maximise: profit = 39X + 42Y

Subject to the following constraints:

Constraint 1: Y 5

Constraint 2: 6X +7Y 210

Constraint 3: 7X +15Y 525

Constraint 4: 5X +28Y 700

Constraint 5: X, Y 0

Which constraints are binding and which are non-binding?

Exercise 2:

For the previous exercise what happens if constraint 1 is relaxed to Y 4? What is the shadow price

of constraint 1? For what increases and decreases of constraint 1 is this shadow price valid?

Exercise 3:

Review of Private Study Exercises.

Page 58 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Topic 11

Topic 11: Linear Programming with Solver Routines

11.1 Learning Objectives

This topic provides an overview of Linear Programming with the Excel Solver.

On completion of the topic, you will be able to:

Interpret LP output

o Binding and non-binding constraints

o Allowed increases and decreases

o Shadow price

Recognise extensions to LP e.g. integer programming.

11.2 Timings

Lectures:

1 hour

Private Study:

9.5 hours

Tutorials:

2 hours

Page 59 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

You should spend approximately 9.5 hours on the Private Study for this topic. You should use this

time to complete the exercises below as directed by your lecturer and to review the contents of this

topic.

Review the lecture material for this topic and discuss any confusion you have with other students.

List the points for which you remain uncertain and raise these in the tutorial. [You must still attempt

the other exercises below and take your answers to the tutorials.]

Exercise 2:

You are required to prepare a 3 slide presentation on the following problem. The presentation

should include; (i) the problem expressed as an objective function and constraint inequalities and,

(ii) a management discussion of the Answer and Sensitivity Reports. (First solve the problem without

integer constraints so that Answer and Sensitivity Reports can be obtained. After this you might

choose to solve the problem with integer constraints).

The small and independent company, Bedroom Furniture Factory manufactures five items of

bedroom furniture. Each month the company decides how many of each item to manufacture based

on three sets of constraints: upstream material supply, in factory process and downstream demand.

The companys monthly labour costs are known and fixed. The contribution for each type of unit of

furniture is known.

Profit Information:

Fixed Labour Costs: 55,000

Furniture

Item

Wardrobe

Ottoman

Drawers

Dressing table

Chair

Contribution

(Selling price Material Costs)

190

370

250

310

100

Material

Lumber

Fabric

Monthly

Availability

10 m3

422 m2

wardrobe

0.03

0

ottoman

drawers

d. table

0.01

0.02

0.015

3

0

0

Page 60 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

chair

0.005

1

Process

Shaping

Plane&sand

Spray

Wash&trim

Assemble

Pack

Hours

Available

300

300

200

102

1000

150

wardrobe

0.4

0.5

0.5

0

1

0.1

ottoman

drawers

d. table

0.4

0.5

0.3

0.1

0.5

0.2

0.8

0.5

0.1

0.3

0

0

1.5

0.5

1.5

0.1

0.5

0.1

Unit

Wardrobe

Ottoman

Drawers

D. table

Chair

Monthly

Demand

200

50

250

100

290

Exercise 3:

Browse the following websites:

www.solver.com/optimization.htm accessed 5th April 2011.

www.cheresources.com/refinery_planning_optimization.shtml accessed 5th April 2011.

Page 61 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

chair

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.15

The tutorials for this topic will last for 2 hours. You can expect to spend some of this time discussing

your answers to the Private Study exercises with your lecturer and other students. Your lecturer will

then direct you on completing the tasks below.

Exercise 1:

A company is in the fortunate position of having six projects available with positive Net Present

Value. Sadly the company has a current year capital ration of 4m. All other things being equal

which projects should the company fund? [Tip: assume the projects are indivisible and use the

binary constraint in Excels Solver.]

Project

A

B

C

D

E

F

2

3

2

1

2

3

3.94

7.24

4.08

3.07

7.53

3.35

Exercise 2:

A company has two production centres P1 and P2. It has four distribution centres D1, D2, D3 and D4.

Production centre P1 has a weekly production volume of up to 15,000 units. Production centre P2

has a weekly production volume of up to 25,000 units. Each week the company decides what

quantity of units to ship from each production centre to each distribution centre, based on the weekly

requirement at each distribution centre, Q, and of the costs of shipping one unit, C:

P1

P2

D1

Q11

Q21

D2

Q12

Q22

D3

Q13

Q23

D4

Q14

Q24

P1

P2

D1

C11

C21

D2

C12

C22

D3

C13

C23

D4

C14

C24

Where,

C11 = 0.12, C12 = 0.15, C13 = 0.20, C14 = 0.10, C21 = 0.25, C22 = 0.20, C23 = 0.15, C24 =

0.15,

Next weeks requirements for the four distribution centres are; 10,000 for D1, 5200 for D2, 7500 for

D3, 13,800 for D4. How many units should each of the production centres produce and ship to each

of the distribution centres?

Exercise 3:

Review of Private Study Exercises.

Page 62 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Topic 12

Topic 12: Decision Tree Analysis

12.1 Learning Objectives

This topic provides an overview of decision tree analysis.

On completion of the topic, you will be able to:

Use rollback to solve a decision tree and to inform a management decision

Understand the difference between a priori and a posteriori probabilities

Recognise 1st, 2nd and 3rd order uncertainty.

12.2 Timings

Lectures:

1 hour

Private Study:

9.5 hours

Tutorials:

2 hours

Page 63 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

You should spend approximately 9.5 hours on the Private Study for this topic. You should use this

time to complete the exercises below as directed by your lecturer and to review the contents of this

topic.

Review the lecture material for this topic and discuss any confusion you have with other students.

List the points for which you remain uncertain and raise these in the tutorial. [You must still attempt

the other exercises below and take your answers to the tutorials.]

Exercise 2:

Rollback the following decision tree assuming that the numbers represent a positive flow variable

such as profit, revenues or net present value.

Exercise 3:

Rollback the decision tree from exercise 2, but now assume that the numbers represent a negative

flow variable such as losses or costs. Comment on your answer.

Exercise 4:

A clothing retailer is due to open a new store in a city in which it is not yet represented. From

previous experience the retailer knows that 70% of new store openings are profitable within the first

year, whilst 30% are not. The company contracts a market research organisation to improve these

estimates before opening the new store. The market research organisation estimates the reliability

of its survey procedure as follows. If the new store is going to be profitable within the first year then

the survey will be positive 50% of the time, neutral 30% of the time and negative 20% of the time. If

Page 64 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

the store is not going to be profitable in the first year the survey will be positive 30% of the time,

neutral 30% of the time and negative 40% of the time. Calculate the posterior probabilities for the

stores first year profitability.

Exercise 5:

A company employs a large number of salespeople. You have been offered the job of travelling

salesperson and can choose whether to work in Region 1, Region 2 or Region 3. You will be paid

based on your performance. Of the existing salespeople with greater than median pay 30% are in

Region 1, 40% are in Region 2. Of the existing salespeople earning less than median pay 40% are

in Region 2 and 40% are in Region 3. In which Region would you choose to work and why?

Exercise 6:

Read the following articles;

Coopersmith E, Dean G, McVean J and Storaune E (2000) Making Decisions in the Oil and Gas

Industry Oilfield Review 12(4), p2-9.

Available at www.slb.com/resources/publications/oilfield_review/en/2000/or2000_win.aspx accessed

1st April 2011.

Bryant I, Malinverno A, Prange M, Gonfalin M, Moffat J, Swager D, Theys P and Verga F. (2002)

Understanding Uncertainty Oilfield Review 14(3) p2-15

Available at www.slb.com/resources/publications/oilfield_review/en/2002/or2002_aut.aspx accessed

1st April 2011.

Page 65 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

The tutorials for this topic will last for 2 hours. You can expect to spend some of this time discussing

your answers to the Private Study exercises with your lecturer and other students. Your lecturer will

then direct you on completing the tasks below.

Exercise 1:

A manager is deciding whether to undertake a detailed seismic survey prior to drilling a well. The

alternative to drilling the well is to sell the rights to the tract. Based on existing information, the

probability that the well is dry is 0.3 hence the probability that the well is rich is 0.7.

Seismic surveys improve knowledge of the tract but do not provide perfect knowledge.

The probability of a positive survey given that the well is actually rich is 0.5. The probability of a

neutral survey given that the well is actually rich is 0.3. The probability of a negative survey given

that the well is actually dry is 0.2.

The probability of a positive survey given that the well is actually dry is 0.3. The probability of a

neutral survey given that the well is actually dry is 0.3. The probability of a negative survey given

that the well is actually dry is 0.4.

Present values have been estimated for each of the rich and dry outcomes. Present costs of a

seismic survey are known, as are present sale values for similar drilling rights.

Survey cost

Rich well

Dry well

Tract sale with no survey

Tract sale with neutral survey

Tract sale with positive survey

Tract sale with negative survey

4

100

-120

30

30

60

0

Exercise 2:

Review of Private Study Exercises.

Page 66 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Appendix

Equations and Statistical Tables

Management Statistics

Population mean and standard deviation

=

( )2

= ( )2

=

=

( )2

=

1

Sample skewness

( 1)( 2)

=1

=

=

100

0

= 100

= 100

= 100

0

Page 67 of 76

= 100

Probability

(1 or 2 ) = (1 ) + ( 2 ) (1 2 )

Theorem of Bayes

(|) =

(|)()

()

() = (| )( )

( = ) =

=

!

(1

!()!

)()

= (1 )

( = ) =

=

e

!

=

Exponential Distribution

() = e , 0

( < ) = 1

=

() =

2

2

Page 68 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Hypothesis Testing

Distribution of sample means

=

( , + ) =

, +

(1 )

(1 )

( , + ) =

, +

( , + ) =

, +

=

Students one sample t-test of the mean.

=

Independent two sample t-test

=

1

2

1

1

+

1 2

2 =

1 +2 2

Page 69 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Fitting Data

2 Goodness of fit test (Ei 5 for all i)

2 = =1

( )2

k is number of categories, m is number of model parameters estimated from data

2 = =1

( )2

r is number of rows, c is number of columns

Simple Linear Regression

= mi + c

m =

i i

m =

c = m

n i i i i

n i2 ( i )2

( )2

= =

( )2

2

R = r =

n i i i i

(n i2 ( i )2 )(n i2 ( i )2 )

= 1

6 2

(2 1)

Page 70 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Differentiation

Definition

() =

( + ) ()

= lim

Standard Derivatives

= n1

= ea

1

=

=

= ea

= () = e ()

Rules of Differentiation

() + () = +

() =

()() = () + ()

()

() =

()

()

()

Elasticities of Demand

Own price

=

Cross price

1 1

1 1

12 =

1 2

2 1

Income

=

1

1

= (1 + 2 + 3 +...)

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3

+...

+...

Page 71 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

Time Series

The additive decomposition model

= + +

The multiplicative decomposition model

=

Three Point Moving Average

Tn = (Yn-1 +Yn +Yn+1)

Four Point Centred Moving Average

1

Simple Exponential Smoothing

Ft+1 = Yt + (1 )Ft

Errors

=

1

=1

1

=

=1

Page 72 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

P(Z < z)

z

4 z

-3.50

0.0002

0.0002

0.0002

0.0002

0.0002

0.0002

0.0002

0.0002

0.0002

0.0002

-3.40

0.0003

0.0003

0.0003

0.0003

0.0003

0.0003

0.0003

0.0003

0.0003

0.0002

-3.30

0.0005

0.0005

0.0005

0.0004

0.0004

0.0004

0.0004

0.0004

0.0004

0.0003

-3.20

0.0007

0.0007

0.0006

0.0006

0.0006

0.0006

0.0006

0.0005

0.0005

0.0005

-3.10

0.0010

0.0009

0.0009

0.0009

0.0008

0.0008

0.0008

0.0008

0.0007

0.0007

-3.00

0.0013

0.0013

0.0013

0.0012

0.0012

0.0011

0.0011

0.0011

0.0010

0.0010

-2.90

0.0019

0.0018

0.0018

0.0017

0.0016

0.0016

0.0015

0.0015

0.0014

0.0014

-2.80

0.0026

0.0025

0.0024

0.0023

0.0023

0.0022

0.0021

0.0021

0.0020

0.0019

-2.70

0.0035

0.0034

0.0033

0.0032

0.0031

0.0030

0.0029

0.0028

0.0027

0.0026

-2.60

0.0047

0.0045

0.0044

0.0043

0.0041

0.0040

0.0039

0.0038

0.0037

0.0036

-2.50

0.0062

0.0060

0.0059

0.0057

0.0055

0.0054

0.0052

0.0051

0.0049

0.0048

-2.40

0.0082

0.0080

0.0078

0.0075

0.0073

0.0071

0.0069

0.0068

0.0066

0.0064

-2.30

0.0107

0.0104

0.0102

0.0099

0.0096

0.0094

0.0091

0.0089

0.0087

0.0084

-2.20

0.0139

0.0136

0.0132

0.0129

0.0125

0.0122

0.0119

0.0116

0.0113

0.0110

-2.10

0.0179

0.0174

0.0170

0.0166

0.0162

0.0158

0.0154

0.0150

0.0146

0.0143

-2.00

0.0228

0.0222

0.0217

0.0212

0.0207

0.0202

0.0197

0.0192

0.0188

0.0183

-1.90

0.0287

0.0281

0.0274

0.0268

0.0262

0.0256

0.0250

0.0244

0.0239

0.0233

-1.80

0.0359

0.0351

0.0344

0.0336

0.0329

0.0322

0.0314

0.0307

0.0301

0.0294

-1.70

0.0446

0.0436

0.0427

0.0418

0.0409

0.0401

0.0392

0.0384

0.0375

0.0367

-1.60

0.0548

0.0537

0.0526

0.0516

0.0505

0.0495

0.0485

0.0475

0.0465

0.0455

-1.50

0.0668

0.0655

0.0643

0.0630

0.0618

0.0606

0.0594

0.0582

0.0571

0.0559

-1.40

0.0808

0.0793

0.0778

0.0764

0.0749

0.0735

0.0721

0.0708

0.0694

0.0681

-1.30

0.0968

0.0951

0.0934

0.0918

0.0901

0.0885

0.0869

0.0853

0.0838

0.0823

-1.20

0.1151

0.1131

0.1112

0.1093

0.1075

0.1056

0.1038

0.1020

0.1003

0.0985

-1.10

0.1357

0.1335

0.1314

0.1292

0.1271

0.1251

0.1230

0.1210

0.1190

0.1170

-1.00

0.1587

0.1562

0.1539

0.1515

0.1492

0.1469

0.1446

0.1423

0.1401

0.1379

-0.90

0.1841

0.1814

0.1788

0.1762

0.1736

0.1711

0.1685

0.1660

0.1635

0.1611

-0.80

0.2119

0.2090

0.2061

0.2033

0.2005

0.1977

0.1949

0.1922

0.1894

0.1867

-0.70

0.2420

0.2389

0.2358

0.2327

0.2296

0.2266

0.2236

0.2206

0.2177

0.2148

-0.60

0.2743

0.2709

0.2676

0.2643

0.2611

0.2578

0.2546

0.2514

0.2483

0.2451

-0.50

0.3085

0.3050

0.3015

0.2981

0.2946

0.2912

0.2877

0.2843

0.2810

0.2776

-0.40

0.3446

0.3409

0.3372

0.3336

0.3300

0.3264

0.3228

0.3192

0.3156

0.3121

-0.30

0.3821

0.3783

0.3745

0.3707

0.3669

0.3632

0.3594

0.3557

0.3520

0.3483

-0.20

0.4207

0.4168

0.4129

0.4090

0.4052

0.4013

0.3974

0.3936

0.3897

0.3859

-0.10

0.4602

0.4562

0.4522

0.4483

0.4443

0.4404

0.4364

0.4325

0.4286

0.4247

-0.00

0.5000

0.4960

0.4920

0.4880

0.4840

0.4801

0.4761

0.4721

0.4681

0.4641

Page 73 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

0.00

0.5000

0.5040

0.5080

0.5120

0.5160

0.5199

0.5239

0.5279

0.5319

0.5359

0.10

0.5398

0.5438

0.5478

0.5517

0.5557

0.5596

0.5636

0.5675

0.5714

0.5753

0.20

0.5793

0.5832

0.5871

0.5910

0.5948

0.5987

0.6026

0.6064

0.6103

0.6141

0.30

0.6179

0.6217

0.6255

0.6293

0.6331

0.6368

0.6406

0.6443

0.6480

0.6517

0.40

0.6554

0.6591

0.6628

0.6664

0.6700

0.6736

0.6772

0.6808

0.6844

0.6879

0.50

0.6915

0.6950

0.6985

0.7019

0.7054

0.7088

0.7123

0.7157

0.7190

0.7224

0.60

0.7257

0.7291

0.7324

0.7357

0.7389

0.7422

0.7454

0.7486

0.7517

0.7549

0.70

0.7580

0.7611

0.7642

0.7673

0.7704

0.7734

0.7764

0.7794

0.7823

0.7852

0.80

0.7881

0.7910

0.7939

0.7967

0.7995

0.8023

0.8051

0.8078

0.8106

0.8133

0.90

0.8159

0.8186

0.8212

0.8238

0.8264

0.8289

0.8315

0.8340

0.8365

0.8389

1.00

0.8413

0.8438

0.8461

0.8485

0.8508

0.8531

0.8554

0.8577

0.8599

0.8621

1.10

0.8643

0.8665

0.8686

0.8708

0.8729

0.8749

0.8770

0.8790

0.8810

0.8830

1.20

0.8849

0.8869

0.8888

0.8907

0.8925

0.8944

0.8962

0.8980

0.8997

0.9015

1.30

0.9032

0.9049

0.9066

0.9082

0.9099

0.9115

0.9131

0.9147

0.9162

0.9177

1.40

0.9192

0.9207

0.9222

0.9236

0.9251

0.9265

0.9279

0.9292

0.9306

0.9319

1.50

0.9332

0.9345

0.9357

0.9370

0.9382

0.9394

0.9406

0.9418

0.9429

0.9441

1.60

0.9452

0.9463

0.9474

0.9484

0.9495

0.9505

0.9515

0.9525

0.9535

0.9545

1.70

0.9554

0.9564

0.9573

0.9582

0.9591

0.9599

0.9608

0.9616

0.9625

0.9633

1.80

0.9641

0.9649

0.9656

0.9664

0.9671

0.9678

0.9686

0.9693

0.9699

0.9706

1.90

0.9713

0.9719

0.9726

0.9732

0.9738

0.9744

0.9750

0.9756

0.9761

0.9767

2.00

0.9772

0.9778

0.9783

0.9788

0.9793

0.9798

0.9803

0.9808

0.9812

0.9817

2.10

0.9821

0.9826

0.9830

0.9834

0.9838

0.9842

0.9846

0.9850

0.9854

0.9857

2.20

0.9861

0.9864

0.9868

0.9871

0.9875

0.9878

0.9881

0.9884

0.9887

0.9890

2.30

0.9893

0.9896

0.9898

0.9901

0.9904

0.9906

0.9909

0.9911

0.9913

0.9916

2.40

0.9918

0.9920

0.9922

0.9925

0.9927

0.9929

0.9931

0.9932

0.9934

0.9936

2.50

0.9938

0.9940

0.9941

0.9943

0.9945

0.9946

0.9948

0.9949

0.9951

0.9952

2.60

0.9953

0.9955

0.9956

0.9957

0.9959

0.9960

0.9961

0.9962

0.9963

0.9964

2.70

0.9965

0.9966

0.9967

0.9968

0.9969

0.9970

0.9971

0.9972

0.9973

0.9974

2.80

0.9974

0.9975

0.9976

0.9977

0.9977

0.9978

0.9979

0.9979

0.9980

0.9981

2.90

0.9981

0.9982

0.9982

0.9983

0.9984

0.9984

0.9985

0.9985

0.9986

0.9986

3.00

0.9987

0.9987

0.9987

0.9988

0.9988

0.9989

0.9989

0.9989

0.9990

0.9990

3.10

0.9990

0.9991

0.9991

0.9991

0.9992

0.9992

0.9992

0.9992

0.9993

0.9993

3.20

0.9993

0.9993

0.9994

0.9994

0.9994

0.9994

0.9994

0.9995

0.9995

0.9995

3.30

0.9995

0.9995

0.9995

0.9996

0.9996

0.9996

0.9996

0.9996

0.9996

0.9997

3.40

0.9997

0.9997

0.9997

0.9997

0.9997

0.9997

0.9997

0.9997

0.9997

0.9998

3.50

0.9998

0.9998

0.9998

0.9998

0.9998

0.9998

0.9998

0.9998

0.9998

0.9998

Page 74 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

df

5.00%

10.00%

5.00%

2.00%

1.00%

90.00%

95.00%

98.00%

99.00%

6.3138

12.7062

31.8205

63.6567

2.9200

4.3027

6.9646

9.9248

2.3534

3.1824

4.5407

5.8409

2.1318

2.7764

3.7469

4.6041

2.0150

2.5706

3.3649

4.0321

1.9432

2.4469

3.1427

3.7074

1.8946

2.3646

2.9980

3.4995

1.8595

2.3060

2.8965

3.3554

1.8331

2.2622

2.8214

3.2498

10

1.8125

2.2281

2.7638

3.1693

11

1.7959

2.2010

2.7181

3.1058

12

1.7823

2.1788

2.6810

3.0545

13

1.7709

2.1604

2.6503

3.0123

14

1.7613

2.1448

2.6245

2.9768

15

1.7531

2.1314

2.6025

2.9467

16

1.7459

2.1199

2.5835

2.9208

17

1.7396

2.1098

2.5669

2.8982

18

1.7341

2.1009

2.5524

2.8784

19

1.7291

2.0930

2.5395

2.8609

20

1.7247

2.0860

2.5280

2.8453

21

1.7207

2.0796

2.5176

2.8314

22

1.7171

2.0739

2.5083

2.8188

23

1.7139

2.0687

2.4999

2.8073

24

1.7109

2.0639

2.4922

2.7969

25

1.7081

2.0595

2.4851

2.7874

26

1.7056

2.0555

2.4786

2.7787

27

1.7033

2.0518

2.4727

2.7707

28

1.7011

2.0484

2.4671

2.7633

29

1.6991

2.0452

2.4620

2.7564

30

1.6973

2.0423

2.4573

2.7500

31

1.6955

2.0395

2.4528

2.7440

32

1.6939

2.0369

2.4487

2.7385

33

1.6924

2.0345

2.4448

2.7333

34

1.6909

2.0322

2.4411

2.7284

35

1.6896

2.0301

2.4377

2.7238

36

1.6883

2.0281

2.4345

2.7195

37

1.6871

2.0262

2.4314

2.7154

38

1.6860

2.0244

2.4286

2.7116

39

1.6849

2.0227

2.4258

2.7079

40

1.6839

2.0211

2.4233

2.7045

2.50%

1.00%

0.50%

Page 75 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

1

-t

1.6449

1.9600

2.3263

2.5758

0.05

0.01

5.00%

1.00%

3.841

6.635

5.991

9.210

7.815

11.345

9.488

13.277

11.070

15.086

12.592

16.812

14.067

18.475

15.507

20.090

16.919

21.666

10

18.307

23.209

11

19.675

24.725

12

21.026

26.217

13

22.362

27.688

14

23.685

29.141

15

24.996

30.578

16

26.296

32.000

17

27.587

33.409

18

28.869

34.805

19

30.144

36.191

20

31.410

37.566

21

32.671

38.932

22

33.924

40.289

23

35.172

41.638

24

36.415

42.980

25

37.652

44.314

26

38.885

45.642

27

40.113

46.963

28

41.337

48.278

29

42.557

49.588

30

43.773

50.892

df

Page 76 of 76

ABM Student Guide V1.0

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