Greek Banks Update Jan 2010

Equity Research
Sector Report Banks Greece 19 January 2010
Greek Banks Alpha

Trapped in the Minotaur's maze Sell (prev. Hold)
12M target price: EUR 5.7
The historical correlation between Greek CDS and banks' share prices (prev. EUR 12.0)
suggests, with CDS currently at 313bp, 52% further downside for the Current price: EUR 7.15
Greek banks. We remain underweight Greek banks, cutting both Alpha Mcap: EUR 4.1bn
and NBG to Sell and reiterating our Sells on Eurobank and Piraeus. We Free float: 85%
cut EPS estimates by 22% p.a. on average, as we believe that reducing
the government deficit will lead to a prolonged Greek recession.
■ Current CDS spreads imply a 52% further fall in share prices: We

Eurobank
note the disconnect (see chart below) in the recent movement of Greek
sovereign debt spread vs. banks' valuations. Current sovereign spreads Sell (prev. Sell)
suggest continuing sharply falling (-52%) banks' valuations, whilst current 12M target price: EUR 5.6
banks' valuations imply spreads of 180bp (currently 313bp). (prev. EUR 8.0)
Current price: EUR 7.28
■ Greek government bonds: In 3Q09, Greek government bond (GGB)
Mcap: EUR 4.1bn
income accounted for nearly 40% of profits on average. Without this,
Free float: 58%
NBG would have been the only bank to cover its cost of equity with plain-
vanilla banking business returns.
■ Prolonged recession highly likely: With the government aiming to cut its
deficit from 12.7% (2009E) to 3% by 2012, we believe a prolonged NBG
recession in Greece is inevitable, hampering growth and increasing NPLs.
Sell (prev. Hold)
■ 22% average EPS cuts: We lower our EPS estimates on average by 18% in 12M target price: EUR 14.4
2010 and 26% in 2011. Key assumptions behind our new estimates are: (prev. EUR 23.0)
Greek loan growth 1% in 2010E, 1.5% in 2011E, higher funding costs Current price: EUR 16.71
meaning lower NIM and rising cost of risk due to a prolonged recession. Mcap: EUR 10.1bn
We are on average 32% below consensus for 2010-11E. Free float: 100%
■ Underweight Greece: We remain underweight Greece, with both Alpha
and NBG downgraded to Sell (from Hold), and Eurobank and Piraeus still
Sell recommendations. Despite the banks underperforming the sector by
19% since our initiations of coverage last August, we see plenty of further
Piraeus
downside from current levels. Sell (prev. Sell)
12M target price: EUR 5.6
GREEK BANKS INDEX VS. GREEK 5Y CDS SPREADS (prev. EUR 7.4)
Current price: EUR 7.16
8,000
Mcap: EUR 2.5bn
7,000 Free float: 93.5%
6,000
GR banks index
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
GR CDS
2010 2009 2008 2007 Tania Gold, Equity Analyst (UniCredit Bank London)
+44 20 7826 7946
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research tania.gold@unicreditgroup.de
UniCredit Research page 1 See last pages for disclaimer.

19 January 2010 Equity Research
Greek Banks
Contents
Investment case 3
CDS vs. share price disconnect 4
Greek government bond income one-third of profit 8
Reducing earnings estimates by 22% 11
Company Forecasts
Alpha Bank 18
Eurobank 21
NBG 24
Piraeus 27

Greek Banks
Investment case
We remain underweight Greek banks, downgrading Alpha and NBG to Sell and reiterating
our Sell recommendations on Eurobank and Piraeus. We cut our earnings estimates by
22% p.a. on average to reflect the deteriorating macro environment in Greece. We also
calculate that only NBG is covering its cost of equity, with returns from plain-vanilla
banking operations, i.e. excluding income from Greek government bonds (GGBs). We
also note the disconnect that has recently appeared between the spread-widening of
5Y Greek sovereign debt and the fall in the share prices of the Greek banks. This leads
us to believe that a recovery in sovereign spreads is unlikely to fuel a large rally in the
Greek banking index and that the risk is more on the downside. Current CDS levels imply
52% downside risk for the Greek banking sector.
Trapped in the Minotaur's maze

The Greek banks could be considered unlucky. Unlike the investment banks, they did not
invest in toxic assets; unlike the Irish banks, they have not been heavily involved in a collapsing
area such as lending to real estate developers. They are somewhat victims of circumstance
and there is little they can do to change the macro situation of their home market.
The Greek government recently announced that it plans to cut the deficit to GDP to 3% by
2012, from an estimated 12.7% in 2009. Should they be able to do this without any external
help, we would expect to see much fiscal tightening in Greece and a prolonged recession.
There is also the risk of social unrest.
Disconnect between sovereign spreads / banks' share prices

Usually, CDS and banks' share prices are tightly correlated, but we have discovered that the
recent widening of spreads in 5Y Greek sovereign debt has not been fully matched by a fall in
the share prices of the Greek banks. Therefore we see it as unlikely that any tightening of the
spreads will provide a large rally in banks' share prices. There is the risk of a catch-up in
share prices to where Greek CDS spreads are now, should they remain this high (313bp
currently), leaving a large 52% downside risk to current prices. At current levels, the market
appears to be pricing in Greek sovereign spreads of 180bp.
GGB income over one-third of 3Q09 profits

We look at Greek government bond exposures and see that in 3Q09 alone it accounted for on
average nearly 40% of Greek banking sector profits. Excluding this income, NBG is the only
Greek bank to cover its cost of equity with plain-vanilla banking business returns. These
positions are mainly funded by cheap liquidity from the ECB. This will need re-financing within
the next 12 months and we calculate that for every 50bp extra this costs to refinance, it would
range from 2% of NBG's 2010E profits to 20% of Piraeus' 2010E profits.
Cutting EPS estimates on average 22%

We cut our EPS estimates by 22% per annum on average to reflect the continual deteriorating
macro environment in Greece. The main adjustments are:
■ reduction in domestic loan growth
■ reduction in domestic NIM
■ increase in domestic cost of risk
■ increase in domestic tax charges
We are now on average 32% below consensus for 2010E and 2011E.

Greek Banks
CDS vs. share price disconnect

In recent weeks, a disconnect looks to have appeared between the Greek 5Y sovereign
spread and banks' valuations, with sovereign spreads having widened much more than
banks' valuations have fallen. Should sovereign spreads stay at the current high levels of
313bp, we believe Greek banks' valuations would have a further 52% to fall. But should
spreads tighten, we see only a minimal rally. It appears the market is currently pricing in
a Greek 5Y CDS spread of 180bp.
Greek CDS currently double that of Ireland

First we look at the CDS spreads of the countries that are popularly considered in the market
to be the "strugglers" in Europe, especially on a macro level: Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal.
FIVE-YEAR CDS
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
May-08
May-09
Nov-08
Nov-09
Mar-08
Mar-09
Jul-08
Sep-08
Jul-09
Sep-09
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Greece Ireland Portugal Spain
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
From the chart above, it is clear that Greece has recently overtaken Ireland in the cost of
insuring its debt and therefore the risk perception of the country. This is not really a surprise
given the admission of the new government that the expected deficit to GDP was much higher
than initially thought. Now Greece takes the spot of worst performer in the EMU when looking
at the government deficit to GDP in 2009 and runner-up for debt to GDP.

Greek Banks
KEY MACRO INDICATORS
Government deficit to GDP (%) Debt to GDP (%)
0 120
-2 100
-4
80
-6
60
-8
40
-10
-12 20
-14 0
GR IE UK ES PT FR BE IT NL AT DE FI FI ES NL IE UK AT DE PT FR BE GR IT
Source: Bloomberg, EU Commission, UniCredit Research
52% downside implied in current sovereign spreads

The real question will be where these CDS spreads will settle. Given that Greece on a macro
level looks riskier than Ireland, in our view, we struggle to see Greece's CDS settling below
the Irish 150bp mark in the near future.
We are not trying to forecast Greek CDS, but as we show in the charts below, current banks'
valuations imply that spreads will tighten or the banks' valuations will continue to fall.
RELATIVE PERFORMANCE OF GREEK BANKS VS. EURO BANKS ON PRICE AND CDS
Relative performance of Greek banks vs. Euro banks on price and CDS Relative performance of Greek banks vs. Euro banks on price vs. CDS
170 0 2
1.8
150
100 1.6
130 1.4
200 1.2
110
1
300
90 0.8
0.6
400
70 0.4
0.2
50 500
0
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jul-09
Oct-09
Apr-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jan-10
Jan-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jul-09
Oct-09
Apr-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Apr-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jan-10
GR banks vs EU banks price GR vs EU CDS

Greek Banks
GREEK BANKS INDEX VS. GREEK 5Y CDS
8,000 y = 6881.5e-0.0057x
7,000 R2 = 0.8672
GR banks index 6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
GR CDS
2010 2009 2008 2007
Looking at the chart above, it appears that recently a disconnect between Greek CDS and
bank share price movements has appeared; with the Greek CDS widening whilst the banks
share prices have fallen less than would be implied. This could mean a couple of things. First,
that the market believes the CDS spreads at 313bp for Greece are too high, or second that
the share prices still might fall considerably further to catch up with the higher CDS.
We are not going to try and forecast CDS spreads for Greece, but we do believe that even if
there is a tightening of spreads, given that the share prices have not fallen that much in
comparison, they will not rise that much in a tightening era. Therefore on this basis there is
currently limited upside to the banks share prices. But there is the risk that CDS spreads stay
near current levels and banks share prices continue to fall. The chart above implies this would
mean a massive 52% fall in banks' valuations – not our base case scenario. Looking at it the
other way around, current share prices indicate a CDS spread of 180bp.
We repeat the above chart, but for each individual stock price vs. Greek CDS, and see that
there is considerable downside risk at each bank.

Greek Banks
INDIVIDUAL SHARE PRICE VS. GREEK CDS
Alpha Eurobank
25 y = 22.258e-0.0058x 30 y = 23.111e-0.0063x
R2 = 0.8581 R2 = 0.8648
25
20
20
Eurobank PR
15
Alpha PR
15
10
10
5
5
0 0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
GR CDS GR CDS
INDIVIDUAL SHARE PRICE VS. GREEK CDS
NBG Piraeus
45 y = 37.807e-0.0046x 30 y = 24.853e-0.0063x
40 R2 = 0.8249 R2 = 0.8711
25
35
30 20
Piraeus PR
NBG PR
25
15
20
15 10
10
5
5
0 0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
GR CDS GR CDS

Greek Banks
Greek government bond income one-third of profit

Looking at Greek government bonds (GGBs), each bank has a sizeable portfolio with the
income from these bonds generating nearly 40% of 3Q09 bottom-line profit. NBG is the
only Greek bank that covers its cost of equity with returns from plain-vanilla banking
business (i.e. excluding government bond income). These GGBs appear to have been
funded mainly with cheap ECB financing, which matures over the next 12 months. For
every 50bp extra that it costs to refinance this ECB funding, it would range from 2% off
NBG's 2010 profits to 20% at Piraeus.
We cannot write a note on the Greek banks without mentioning Greek government bonds
(GGBs) – although it is hard to estimate the impact these portfolios will have on earnings due
to a lack of disclosure on duration. NBG is the only bank to have given enough disclosure to
determine the impact for 4Q09. In its 3Q09 presentation, it showed us that for every 1bp
movement in the spread of GGBs there would be up to a EUR -0.5mn movement in the trading
line and EUR -4.7mn movement in the AFS. Given that the spreads tightened 100bp vs. the
bund in 4Q09, that will leave us with a EUR 50mn hit to trading and a EUR 470mn hit to
equity. It is worth noting that in Greece any movement in the AFS and therefore equity do not
flow through to capital, so there will be no impact on the tier 1 ratio.
GREEK GOVERNMENT BONDS AND ECB FUNDING (EUR BN)
ECB funding GGBs

Alpha 9 3
Eurobank 6 5
Piraeus 5 6.2
NBG 9.5 18
Source: Company data, UniCredit Research
What is interesting to note is that both Alpha and Eurobank have more ECB funding than
GGBs, therefore potentially implying they are using some of this funding for the operating
business. Although looking at Alpha's balance sheet, it might have placed this excess funding
in the interbank market. Either way, when this ECB funding rolls off it could lead to a decent
increase in funding costs.
BONDS OUTSTANDING
Bonds outstanding by maturity (EUR bn) Cumulative maturity of debt outstanding (indexed to 100)
4.0 100
90
3.5
80
3.0
70
2.5 60
2.0 50
40
1.5
30
1.0
20
0.5 10
0.0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 >2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 >2015
Alpha Eurobank NBG Piraeus Alpha Eurobank NBG Piraeus
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, UniCredit Research

Greek Banks
Range of 2%-22% off profits for every 50bp extra refinancing cheap
ECB liquidity and wholesale funding in 2010
We look at the impact for each bank on 2010 profit of refinancing this cheap ECB funding with
more expensive funding. For every 50bp extra it costs to refinance, this ranges from 2% off
NBG's 2010 profits to 20% at Piraeus.
It would be harsh to assume that as Greek CDS spreads have gone from 50bp a couple of
years ago to over 300bp in 2010 that the cost of renewing this wholesale funding would be
over 250bp higher. Instead we look at the impact that an extra 50bp on the cost of this
wholesale funding would do to profits.
PROFIT IMPACT FROM HIGHER COST OF FUNDING
Profit impact from 50bp higher cost when refinancing cheap ECB Profit impact from 50bp higher cost when refinancing maturing
liquidity wholesale funding
0 0.0
-2
-0.5
-4
-6 -1.0
-8
-1.5
-10
-12
-2.0
-14
-16 -2.5
-18
-3.0
-20 Alpha Eurobank NBG Piraeus
Alpha Eurobank NBG Piraeus
2010 2011
Source: UniCredit Research
3Q09 Greek government bond income nearly 40% of profits

Another interesting angle in relation to Greek government bonds is the amount of earnings
each bank would have made in 3Q should they not have owned the GGBs. We therefore strip
out the net interest income associated with the GGBs at 3Q and also the trading income. We
assume no costs associated with this income, but a 25% tax rate. For Alpha and NBG, we
take a best guess for the amount of NII and trading for GGBs and they do not disclose the
numbers. As shown in the table below, on average over one-third of 3Q09 profits were from
GGBs on our calculations.
Also, we can clearly see a large drop in the annualized tangible RoE of each bank. We cannot
ignore the positive effect of this income as it does help to absorb loan loss provisions, but we
also see this as low-quality income and highlight that apart from NBG, none of the banks were
covering their cost of equity with returns from plain-vanilla banking operations (i.e. excluding
GGB income) in 3Q09.

Greek Banks
3Q09 NET PROFIT EXCLUDING INCOME FROM GGBs
EUR mn Alpha Eurobank NBG Piraeus

Net profit reported 130 111 301 90
- less GGB NII -22 -60 -67 -40
- less GGB trading income -30 0 -25 -30
- plus tax on GGB income 13 15 23 18
Total adjustment to profit -39 -45 -69 -53
Adjusted net profit 91 66 232 38
% change in net profit -30% -41% -23% -58%
Annualized tangible RoE (%) 16% 13% 22% 13%

Annualized tangible RoE (excl. GGB income) (%) 11% 8% 17% 5%
Source: Company data, UniCredit Research

Greek Banks
Reducing earnings estimates by 22%

We cut our EPS estimates on average by 18% for 2010 and 26% for 2011 on the back of
continuing worsening of the Greek macro environment. We lower loan growth and NIM
in both years, whilst increasing cost of risk and tax rates. In turn our target prices fall
on average 36%, also due to a higher cost of equity being used for Greece. We remain
underweight Greek banks and with our downgrades for Alpha and NBG, we believe all
four banks are overvalued.
More than 30% below consensus

We cut our 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates (excluding adjustments for the cost of preference
dividends, as explained below) for each bank by on average 18% in 2010E and 26% in 2011E,
which leaves us on average 32% below consensus in 2010E and 33% below in 2011E.
Piraeus' 2010E EPS actually rises slightly on our new numbers, due to a release of the cost of
the preference dividend paid on the government preference shares issued in May 2009, as
we are now assuming it will pay them back in May 2010 along with the other banks. Without
this adjustment, our earnings estimates would not have changed in 2010 as we had already
been more prudent in our numbers for Piraeus, as we were always expecting a wave of
corporate and SME bad debts in 2010.
UNICREDIT GROUP EPS ESTIMATES CHANGES
EUR Alpha Eurobank NBG Piraeus

2009E 2010E 2011E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2009E 2010E 2011E
New EPS 0.69 0.53 0.66 0.49 0.49 0.80 2.10 1.76 2.18 0.74 0.51 0.83
Old EPS 0.70 0.77 1.14 0.46 0.61 1.14 2.11 2.18 2.83 0.53 0.42 0.92
% change -1% -31% -42% 6% -19% -30% -1% -19% -23% 39% 21% -10%
Consensus EPS 0.816 0.84 1.214 0.554 0.726 1.169 2.145 2.281 2.91 0.705 0.803 1.161
UCG estimates vs. consensus -15% -37% -45% -12% -32% -32% -2% -23% -25% 4% -37% -29%
Source: Company data, UniCredit Research estimates
The reason for these earnings reductions stems from the domestic business in Greece, where
we see a prolonged recession. With the government deficit to GDP estimated at 12.7% in 2009
and the target of reducing this to 3% by the end of 2012, this leaves Greece with little choice.
Either it will cut the deficit itself, with much fiscal tightening and a prolonged (we estimate
three years) recession, as it represents 10% off GDP, or it will need external help in the form
of an IMF bailout, say, or it could potentially default on sovereign debt. Our base case
scenario is the former option.
A prolonged recession in Greece would be bad for growth and provisions in our view. We
therefore reduce our estimates, as we:
■ reduce our domestic loan growth
■ reduce our domestic NIM
■ increase domestic cost of risk
■ increase domestic tax charges. With the government needing to reduce its deficit in
Greece, we believe higher corporate tax will be one of the ways. This might not come as
an official rise in the corporate tax rate, and if it does not rise then we expect the 2009
"one-off" tax hike (based on 2008 domestic profits) to be repeated annually and therefore
no longer be a one-off.

Greek Banks
Reduced loan growth

Given the current macro picture in Greece, we find it hard to see loans growing at an industry
level above 1% in 2010 and 1.5% in 2011. Greece does have low credit penetration vs. other
Western European countries at 103% (average in Europe 141%), but we believe continual
falling demand and constricted supply would hamper Greece returning to above-average
European growth levels during this recessionary period.
GREECE VS. EUROZONE CREDIT TO GDP (%)
160
141
140
117
120
103
100
83 81
80
63
60 55
45 43
38
40 32
25
17 16 16 13
20
0
Total credit/GDP Corp credit/GDP Mortgage credit/GDP Cons credit/GDP
Euro Area 08 Greece 08 Euro Area 05 Greece 05
Source: Bank of Greece, ECB, UniCredit Research
Reduced NIM
We decrease our domestic net interest margin and therefore net interest income projections
for a couple of reasons:
• Rising funding costs in 2010, as Greece is now considered significantly more risky a
country than it was six months ago (as evidenced by the rise in CDS spreads), which will
push up the cost of wholesale funding. Also, with higher wholesale funding costs, we believe
we might see more competition in deposits and therefore we lower the improvement we
expect to see in both sight and time deposit spreads for 2010 and 2011 (see appendix for
detailed breakdown of domestic NIM forecasts).
• 2009 asset re-pricing complete. We see little room for further asset re-pricing. Also, when
for example Eurobank calculates its asset spreads, it does this vs. an internally weighted
cost of funding. Some of this will be wholesale funding, so reported asset spreads are
likely to fall here. Should CDS spreads stay at these high current levels, then there is the
potential that some of the higher funding costs may be offset by higher than previously
expected assets spreads. But this would then be matched off by higher than expected
provisions, in our view.
Also, we cannot ignore the level of ECB funding that we believe the Greek banks are currently
using to fund their government bond portfolios.
The guidance from management on NIM has been for it to continue rising due to better
deposit spreads. As we have said, this is not something we forecast to occur as quickly as the
Greek banks would like, and therefore we see domestic NIM being at best stable in 2010 for
the majority of the banks. For NBG, we expect it to fall, mainly due to the large GGB portfolio
not earning the same spread as in 2009 due to higher funding costs.

Greek Banks
Although NBG is in a strong position, with a domestic loan-to-deposit ratio of 87%, these
excess deposits appear to have been used to fund the purchases of Greek government
bonds. Therefore this benefit is of relatively minimal value unless it were to sell a sizeable
portion of its government bond portfolio.
DOMESTIC NIM
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Alpha Eurobank NBG Piraeus
Flat domestic cost of risk 2010

Unlike other European countries, the recession in Greece (along with Ireland and Spain) is
expected to continue into 2010, and in our view even longer. With the macro news continuing
to get worse in Greece, unemployment rising (currently 10%), we now believe NPLs will peak
toward the end of 2010/early 2011 rather than in 1H10 and thus raise our cost-of-risk forecasts.
We also try to look at the cost of risk on an underlying basis. All Greek banks (to varying
degrees) booked collective provisions in 4Q08 (in fact Alpha was very prudent and also
booked one in 3Q08).
COLLECTIVE PROVISIONS
Alpha Eurobank Piraeus NBG

Collective provision booked in 2008 (EUR mn) 235 240 215 80
Collection provision / av. 2008 gross loans (bp) 50 46 62 1
Alpha did not disclose its collective provision booked, but we calculate what we consider a
reasonable estimate by using the other Greek banks' 2008 provision charge movement as
guidance, normalizing 3Q08 and 4Q08 and assuming that the difference in provisions booked
in the P&L are all collective.
On the 3Q09 conference call, Eurobank told us that it had "used" half of its collective provision
and we use the same assumption for NBG when calculating its underlying cost of risk. For
Alpha and Piraeus, we look at the fall in coverage since 4Q08 and assume this is due to new
NPLs which do not need any extra provisioning as they are covered by the collective
provision. We accept that this does not take into account any change in mix in NPLs, etc, but
believe it gives good guidance as to what the banks have been doing.

Greek Banks
COST OF RISK – REPORTED VS. UNDERLYING
Reported cost of risk (bp) Underlying cost of risk (bp)
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Alpha Eurobank NBG Piraeus Alpha Eurobank NBG Piraeus
In our initiation report, "Beware Medusa's stare", published 18 August 2009, we calculate that
both Piraeus and Eurobank had underprovided to date. We still believe that both banks have
underprovided and, when looking at their coverage ratios compared with other European banks,
they are at the lower end. If using the collective provision continues to reduce coverage, we
believe the market will not react well to this.
COVERAGE (%)
80
70
60 av. 53
50
40
30
20
10
0
Lloyds
BARC
SAN
HSBC
Eurobank
UBS
BPE
Piraues
RBS
DBK
NBG
UBI
BP
MPS
ISP
PMI
CS
BBVA
Alpha
STAN
Generic portion
Target prices cut 36%

We lower our target prices for each of the Greek banks. This is due to three reasons:
1. Reduction in EPS (see above) for an explanation
2. Increased CoE to take into account the higher risk-free rate that Greece now bears vs. six
months ago
3. Lower sustainable RoE as we are starting to believe Greece will not return to the growth
we expected previously

Greek Banks
Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) models

We value each of the Greek banks using a sum-of-the parts methodology (SOTP);
■ We roll forward our valuations to use 2011 estimates (rather than 2010)
■ Allocate RWA to each division if not already done by the company
■ Allocate capital to each division as a % of RWA; 7% Greece, 10% EME, 12%

Turkey
■ Estimate sustainable ROE for each division and in turn calculate a P/B, with the
exception of corporate centers and asset management divisions which are valued
on a P/E multiple basis
■ Comparing our allocated equity to equity Tier 1 capital, we then add/deduct the
excess/deficit at 1x book.
Alpha SOTP – new target price EUR 5.7

ALPHA SUM OF THE PARTS
EUR mn Value Valuation tool Equity Net profit RoE Sustainable CoE Growth P/NAV Implicit
2011 2011 2011 (%) RoE (%) % % P/E
2011E
Retail 1,173 RoE-CoE 1,052 159 15.1 15.5 14 1.0 1.12 6.6
Commercial & corporate 925 RoE-CoE 1,336 110 8.3 10.0 14 1.0 0.69 7.4
SE Europe 866 RoE-CoE 1,237 105 8.5 10.0 13 3.0 0.70 7.3
Investment banking & treasury 288 RoE-CoE 625 33 5.3 7.0 14 1.0 0.46 7.7
Asset mgmt & insurance 55 RoE-CoE 64 5 7.3 12.0 14 1.0 0.85 10.3
Total operating business (I) 3,306 4,313 413 7.1
Corporate centre, minorities + prefs (II) -454 P/E multiple -64 7.1
Excess capital at 1xP/BV (III) 562 562 6
Group (I+II+III) 3,414 4,875 355
No. of shares (mn) 534
12M target price (EUR) 5.7
Current price (EUR) 7.15
Upside/(downside) -20.4%
Source: UniCredit Research estimates

Greek Banks
Eurobank SOTP – New 12M target price EUR 5.6

EUROBANK SUM OF THE PARTS
EUR mn Value Valuation Equity Profit RoE Sustainable CoE Growth P/NAV Implied.
tool 2011E 2011E 2011E (%) RoE (%) (%) target
P/E
Retail 994 RoE-CoE 731 134 18.4 18.5 14.0 1.5% 1.36 6.6
Corporate 1,429 RoE-CoE 1,190 195 16.4 16.5 14.0 1.5% 1.20 6.5
AM, PB, INS 207 P/E multiple 18 17 N/A N/A NA NA N/A 10.7
Treasury & capital mkts 753 RoE-CoE 653 104 15.9 16.0 14.0 1% 1.15 6.5
SEE 869 RoE-CoE 1,737 60 3.4 8.5 13.0 4.0% 0.50 13.0
Total operating (I) 4,251 4,329 510 7.4
Other non operating (II) -667 P/E multiple 140 -80 7.4
Excess capital (III) -135 -135 -1
Group (I+II+III) 3,448 4,333 428
No. shares (mn) 538
12M TP (EUR) 5.6
Upside/downside -23%
NBG SOTP – New 12M target price EUR 14.4

NBG SUM OF THE PARTS
EUR mn Valuation Valuation tool Equity Net RoE 11E Sustainable CoE Growth P/B (x) Implied
profit RoE (%) (%) 10 P/E
2011E
Retail 1,241 RoE-CoE 1,152 172 14.9 15.0 14.0 1.0 1.08 6.4
Corporate, Investment banking & Insurance 1,603 RoE-CoE 906 224 24.7 24.0 14.0 1.0 1.77 6.3
Global mkts & asset mgmt 577 RoE-CoE 577 434 75.2 14.0 14.0 1.0 1.00 1.2
S&EE (excl FB) 1,276 RoE-CoE 1,276 159 12.5 13.0 13.0 3.0 1.00 7.2
Finansbank 4,577 RoE-CoE 2,397 591 24.6 25.0 15.0 4.0 1.91 6.8
Total operating business(I) 9,274 6,309 1,580 5.2
Other -1,601 P/E multiple 272 (273) 5.2
Total group (I+II) 7,672 8,899 1,307
Excess equity (III) 2,319 2,319 23
Total (I+II+II) 9,991 8,899 1,330
Shares (mn) 607
12-month target price (EUR) 14.4
Upside/downside -14%

Greek Banks
Piraeus SOTP – New 12M target price EUR 5.6

PIRAEUS SUM-OF-THE-PARTS
EUR mn Value Valuation Equity Net profit RoE Sustainable CoE % Growth P/NAV Implicit
tool 2011E 2011E 2011E RoE (%) % P/E
(%) 2011E
Greece 576 RoE-CoE 1,497 79 5.3 6.0 14 1.0 0.38 6.5
SE Europe 1,433 RoE-CoE 1,837 190 10.3 10.8 13 3.0 0.78 6.8
Total operating business (I) 2,008 3,334 268 6.7
Excess capital at 1xP/BV (III) 40 40 0
Group (I+II+III) 2,048 3,374 269
No. of shares (mn) 325
12M target price (EUR) 5.6
Upside/downside -22.3%

Greek Banks
Financials – Alpha Bank

ALPHA P&L
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E

Net interest income EUR mn 1,605 1,799 1,779 1,822 1,847
as a percentage of total revenues % 72 77 73 76 76
Net fees & commissions EUR mn 465 464 387 403 419
Net trading income EUR mn 82 -7 181 76 80
Other operating income EUR mn 84 82 75 84 88
Total revenue EUR mn 2,236 2,339 2,422 2,385 2,434
Personnel expenses EUR mn -559 -700 -673 -670 -667
Other operating expenses EUR mn -361 -390 -421 -455 -492
Depreciation & amortization EUR mn -78 -88 -98 -110 -123
Total expenses EUR mn -998 -1,178 -1,193 -1,235 -1,282
as a percentage of total revenues % -45 -50 -49 -52 -53
Operating profit before risk EUR mn 1,237 1,160 1,229 1,150 1,152
Loan loss provisions EUR mn -227 -542 -680 -662 -606
Net operating profit EUR mn 1,011 619 549 487 545
Non operating income (net) EUR mn -2 7 -4 0 0
Profit before tax (PBT) EUR mn 1,011 619 549 487 545
Tax expense EUR mn -215 -112 -112 -117 -131
Profit after tax (PAT) EUR mn 796 506 437 370 414
Exceptional items EUR mn 55 0 -13 0 0

Minorities (equity) EUR mn -2 -1 -1 -1 -1
Preference dividends EUR mn -51 -59 -104 -87 -59
Net profit attributable to common equity EUR mn 798 447 319 282 355
UCG adjusted EPS EUR 1.66 1.00 0.69 0.53 0.66
Source: Alpha, UniCredit Research estimates

Greek Banks
ALPHA KEY RATIOS
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E

Per share data
Reported EPS EUR 2.10 1.26 0.69 0.53 0.66
Book value per share EUR 8.20 7.35 8.31 8.60 9.02
Tangible book value per share EUR 7.87 6.96 7.99 8.28 8.70
Dividend per share EUR 0.90 0.00 0.24 0.24 0.31
Year end shares in issue (Million) mn 411 411 534 534 534
Valuation ratios
P/E (UCG adjusted EPS) x 13.0 15.7 11.2 14.7 11.7
P/BV x 2.6 2.1 0.9 0.9 0.9
P/tBV x 2.8 2.3 1.0 0.9 0.9
Dividend yield % 4.1 0.0 3.0 3.1 4.0
Payout ratio % 43 0 34 46 47
P&L data
Total expenses EUR mn -998 -1,178 -1,193 -1,235 -1,282
UCG adjusted net profit EUR mn 741 454 328 282 355
Profitability ratios
Adjusted return on average risk weighted assets % 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.7
Adjusted return on average assets % 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5
Adjusted return on average shareholders' equity % 24.3 14.2 8.8 6.3 7.5
Adjusted return on average tangible shareholders' equity % 25.3 14.9 9.2 6.5 7.8
P&L ratios
Net interest income / average total assets % 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6
Cost income ratio % 45 50 49 52 53
Compensation expenses to total revenue % 25 30 28 28 27
Loan loss provisions / average customer loans % 0.61 1.17 1.33 1.27 1.13
Tax rate % 21 18 21 24 24
Capital ratios
Equity Tier 1 ratio % 6.0 6.5 8.9 9.0 9.0
Tier 1 ratio % 7.8 8.3 12.0 10.1 10.1
Total capital ratio % 10.1 10.1 9.7 9.7 9.7
Assets / shareholders' equity x 16 22 15 15 15
Assets / tangible shareholders' equity x 17 23 16 16 15
Assets / Tier 1 capital x 14 16 11 13 13
Structural data
Total assets EUR bn 55 65 68 70 72
Customer loans EUR bn 42 51 51 52 54
Customer deposits EUR bn 35 43 43 44 45
Loan/deposit ratio % 121 119 121 120 120
Shareholders' equity EUR bn 3.4 3.0 4.4 4.6 4.8
Tangible shareholders' equity EUR bn 3.2 2.9 4.3 4.4 4.6
RWA EUR bn 50 50 51 52 54

Greek Banks
ALPHA DOMESTIC NII
EUR mn 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09E 2009E 2010E 2011E

Domestic NII 304 346 350 357 1,357 1,394 1,381
Spreads
Mortgages 143 167 171 175 164 150 125
Consumer 784 842 859 875 839 775 725
SBL 690 733 737 740 728 700 650
M&L corporate 193 228 233 240 225 200 175
Sight & savings 112 79 52 30 71 50 100

Time (112) (92) (90) (80) -92 (10) 0
Balances
Mortgages 11,186 11,184 11,191 11,191 11,191 11,303 11,462
Consumer 4,972 5,031 5,127 5,165 5,165 5,216 5,290
SBL 5,063 5,122 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,170 5,243
M&L corporate 18,254 18,344 18,329 18,329 18,329 18,513 18,774
Total 39,475 39,681 39,766 39,804 39,804 40,203 40,769
Sight & savings 12,400 14,014 14,400 15,209 15,209 15,196 15,470
Time 22,100 22,000 20,900 21,213 21,213 21,730 22,664
NII earned
Mortgages 40 47 48 49 183 169 142
Consumer 97 105 109 113 424 402 381
SBL 87 93 94 95 369 360 338
M&L corporate 88 104 107 110 409 368 326
Total 312 350 358 366 1,385 1,300 1,188
Sight & savings 35 26 18 11 91 76 153

Time -59 -51 -48 -42 -200 -21 0
Total -24 -25 -30 -31 -109 55 153
Total NII from loans & deposits 288 325 328 335 1,276 1,354 1,341
Other NII 16 21 22 22 81 40 40
Total NII 304 346 350 357 1,357 1,394 1,381
NIM (%) 3.09% 3.50% 3.53% 3.59% 3.44% 3.48% 3.41%

Greek Banks
Financials – Eurobank
EUROBANK P&L
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E

Net trading income EUR mn 138 219 148 80 88
Net insurance income EUR mn 53 46 51 56 60
Total expenses EUR mn -1,354 -1,566 -1,477 -1,510 -1,583
Loan loss provisions EUR mn -401 -886 -1,166 -1,141 -932
Net operating profit EUR mn 1,062 825 395 464 661
Non operating income (net) EUR mn 8 -7 8 8 9
Exceptional items EUR mn 0 0 -17 0 0

Source: Eurobank, UniCredit Research estimates

Greek Banks
EUROBANK KEY RATIOS
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E

Per share data
Reported EPS EUR 1.60 1.20 0.49 0.49 0.80
Valuation ratios
P/BV x 3.0 2.1 0.9 0.9 0.8
P/tBV x 3.6 2.7 1.1 1.0 0.9
Dividend yield % 3.4 0.0 0.0 1.8 2.9
Payout ratio % 51.3 0.0 0.0 28.0 28.0
P&L data
Loan loss provisions EUR mn -401 -886 -1,166 -1,141 -932
P&L ratios
Cost income ratio % 48.1 47.8 48.6 48.5 49.8
Compensation expenses to total revenue % 25.8 25.7 26.1 26.0 26.8
Tax rate % 18.9 17.2 11.3 22.0 23.2
Capital ratios
Tier 1 ratio % 9.2 8.0 11.4 9.6 9.7
Structural data
RWA EUR bn 46 48 49 51 54

Greek Banks
EUROBANK DOMESTIC NII
EUR mn 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09E 2009E 2010E 2011E

Domestic NII 362 399 408 416 1,585 1,631 1,581
Spreads
Mortgages 122 125 130 135 127 125 100
Consumer 980 981 985 980 975 925 850
SBL 504 514 520 525 512 475 425
Wholesale 217 237 240 245 234 225 200
Sight & savings -6 -24 -24 -10 -16 15 65

Time -102 -90 -75 -50 -79 -10 0
Balances
Mortgages 10300 10300 10410 10410 10,410 10,514 10,662
Consumer 8000 8020 7570 7570 7,570 7,646 7,754
SBL 7000 7000 7080 7080 7,080 7,169 7,270
Wholesale 16600 16683 17420 17420 17,420 17,595 17,842
Total 41,900 42,003 42,480 42,480 42,480 42,924 43,528
Sight & savings 12,000 12,434 12,319 12,830 12,830 12,919 13,962
Time 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,125 25,251
NII earned
Mortgages 32 32 34 35 133 131 106
Consumer 200 196 192 185 774 704 654
SBL 89 90 92 93 363 338 309
Wholesale 90 99 102 107 398 394 354
Total 410 417 419 420 1,667 1,567 1,424
Sight & savings -2 -7 -7 -3 -20 19 87

Time -64 -56 -47 -31 -198 -25 0
Total -66 -64 -54 -34 -218 -6 87
Other NII 17 46 43 30 136 70 70
Total NII 362 399 408 416 1,585 1,631 1,581
NIM (%) 3.43% 3.81% 3.86% 3.92% 3.73% 3.82% 3.66%

Greek Banks
Financials – NBG
NBG P&L
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E

Net insurance income EUR mn 93 123 101 108 112
Other operating income EUR mn 217 68 -33 102 115
Personnel expenses EUR mn -1,388 -1,378 -1,446 -1,496 -1,581
Net operating profit EUR mn 1,800 2,083 1,644 1,550 1,873
Non operating income (net) EUR mn 17 0 0 2 4
Profit before tax (PBT) EUR mn 1,817 2,083 1,645 1,552 1,877
Profit after tax (PAT) EUR mn 1,578 1,711 1,305 1,211 1,464
Exceptional items EUR mn 105 -126 -36 0 0

Net profit attributable to common equity EUR mn 1,572 1,447 1,120 1,070 1,324
Source: NBG, UniCredit Research estimates

Greek Banks
NBG KEY RATIOS
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E

Per share data
Reported EPS EUR 3.23 2.93 2.10 1.76 2.18
Valuation ratios
P/BV x 2.8 2.4 1.3 1.2 1.1
P/tBV x 5.1 4.3 1.9 1.7 1.5
Dividend yield % 3.7 0.0 3.6 4.0 5.5
Payout ratio % 43.3 0.0 28.7 37.9 42.4
P&L data
Profit before tax (PBT) EUR mn 1,817 2,083 1,645 1,552 1,877
Net profit attributable to common equity EUR mn 1,572 1,447 1,120 1,070 1,324
UCG adjusted net profit EUR mn 1,467 1,573 1,157 1,070 1,324
P&L ratios
Cost income ratio % 52 47 48 50 50
Compensation expenses to total revenue % 31 28 28 29 29
Tax rate % 13 18 21 22 22
Capital ratios
Tier 1 ratio % 9.2 10.0 12.2 12.0 12.2
Structural data
RWA EUR bn 53 63 68 72 77

Greek Banks
NBG DOMESTIC NII
EUR mn 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09E 2009E 2010E 2011E

Domestic NII 605 617 629 634 2,485 2,413 2,396
Spreads
Mortgages 372 380 393 390 384 330 305
Consumer 981 1050 1093 1075 1046 950 850
SBL 569 552 524 525 559 500 450
Corporates 276 291 293 290 292 275 225
Bonds 164 118 109 100 159 75 75
Sight & savings 98 57 30 22 51 50 100

Time -57 -51 -51 -25 -47 0 5
Balances
Mortgages 19,200 19,600 20,100 20,603 20,603 21,439 22,089
Consumer 6,800 7,000 7,200 7,380 7,380 7,529 7,757
SBL 4,500 4,900 5,000 5,100 5,100 5,255 5,414
Corporates 17,300 17,187 17,187 17,187 17,187 17,533 18,065
Bonds 17,000 24,500 24,500 17,500 17,500 17,500 17,500
Total 47,800 48,687 49,487 50,270 50,270 51,756 53,326
Sight & savings 26,000 27,765 27,143 28,119 28,119 28,779 29,463
Time 30,300 30,746 30,057 31,139 31,139 31,868 32,627
NII earned
Mortgages 176 184 195 198 754 694 664
Consumer 166 181 194 196 737 708 650
SBL 61 65 65 66 257 259 240
Corporates 117 125 126 125 493 477 400
Total 520 556 580 585 2,240 2,138 1,954
Bonds 62 61 67 53 242 131 131
Total 581 617 647 638 2,482 2,269 2,085
Sight & savings 65 40 20 15 141 144 295

Time -41 -39 -38 -19 -138 0 16
Total 24 0 -18 -4 2 144 311
NIM (%) 5.16% 5.12% 5.12% 5.08% 5.16% 4.73% 4.49%

Greek Banks
Financials – Piraeus
PIRAEUS P&L
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E

Net interest income EUR mn 917 1,160 1,105 1,161 1,189
Total expenses EUR mn -744 -901 -895 -915 -935
Operating profit before risk EUR mn 736 750 749 725 763
Net operating profit EUR mn 620 362 290 214 330
Non operating income (net) EUR mn 17 24 15 16 16
Restructuring charges EUR mn 0 0 0 0 0
Goodwill impairment EUR mn 0 0 0 0 0
Profit before tax (PBT) EUR mn 637 386 305 230 346
Exceptional items EUR mn 118 0 0 0 0

Preference dividends EUR mn 0 0 -21 -7 0
Source: Piraeus, UniCredit Research estimates

Greek Banks
PIRAEUS KEY RATIOS
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E

Per share data
Reported EPS EUR 2.14 0.97 0.74 0.51 0.83
Valuation ratios
P/BV x 2.7 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.7
P/tBV x 3.0 2.1 0.8 0.8 0.8
Dividend yield % 2.9% 0.0% 1.7% 1.7% 2.6%
Payout ratio % 34% 0% 17% 26% 24%
P&L data
Total expenses EUR mn -744 -901 -895 -915 -935
Profit before tax (PBT) EUR mn 637 386 305 230 346
P&L ratios
Cost income ratio % 50.3 54.6 54.4 55.8 55.0
Compensation expenses to total revenue % 25.6 27.8 27.7 28.4 28.4
Tax rate % 16.2 14.1 18.0 20.0 20.0
Capital ratios
Tier 1 ratio % 9.8 8.0 9.6 8.7 8.9
Structural data
RWA EUR bn 31 38 37 38 40

Greek Banks
PIRAEUS DOMESTIC NII
EUR mn 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09E 2009E 2010E 2011E

Domestic NII 162 173 176 182 694 741 746
Spreads
Mortgages 203 211 220 225 213 200 175
Consumer 804 810 820 825 805 775 675
SME 336 342 345 350 341 325 275
M&L 176 177 175 175 174 150 130
Sight & savings 37 23 0 0 15 15 65

Time -117 -109 (90) (75) -97 (35) 0
Balances
Mortgages 5,920 5,855 5,939 5,969 5,969 6,029 6,114
Consumer 3,387 3,334 3,267 3,267 3,267 3,299 3,346
SME 6,307 6,293 6,352 6,384 6,384 6,448 6,539
Corp 14,039 14,006 14,139 14,209 14,209 14,352 14,554
Total 29,653 29,488 29,697 29,829 29,829 30,129 30,553
Sight & savings 6796 7499 7451 7490 7,490 7580 7938
Time 19417 19283 19159 19417 19,417 19491 20411
NII earned
Mortgages 30 31 32 33 127 120 106
Consumer 69 68 68 67 272 254 224
SME 53 54 55 56 217 209 179
Corp 62 62 62 62 248 214 188
Total 215 215 216 219 865 797 697
Sight & savings 6 4 0 0 10 11 50

Time -57 -53 -43 -36 -189 -68 0
Total -51 -49 -43 -36 -179 -57 50
Total NII from L&D 164 166 173 182 686 740 747
Other NII -2 7 3 3 11 0 0
Total NII 162 173 176 185 697 740 747
NIM (%) 2.17% 2.35% 2.38% 2.49% 2.33% 2.47% 2.46%

Greek Banks
Notes
UniCredit Research page 30

Greek Banks
Notes

Greek Banks
Disclaimer
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POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTERESTS

A2A 3; Aareal Bank 2, 3; Acotel 3, 5; ACTELIOS 3, 5, 7; AEDES 2, 7; Agora 4; Aicon 7; Air Liquide 3; Alcatel-Lucent 3; ALLEANZA 1a; Allgeier Holding 3, 4; Allianz 1b, 3, 6a;
Alpha Bank 2; AMB Generali Holding 3; AmRest 3; Andritz 3; Ansaldo STS 3, 7; ArcelorMittal 3; Arctic Paper 2, 3; Asseco Slovakia 3; Astaldi 3, 5; Atlantia 3; Austrian Airlines 3;
Autogrill 3, 7; BANCA GENERALI 1a; Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena 3; Banca Popolare di Milano 3; Banco de Sabadell 1a, 2, 3; Banco Espirito Santo 3; Banco Popolare 3;
Banco Popolare Scarl 3; Banco Popular Espanol 3; Bank Handlowy 3; Barclays 2; BASF SE 2; BayWa 2, 4; BBVA 3; BCP 2, 3; Bertrandt 3; Bialetti 5, 7; Bioton S.A. 2, 3, 4; BMW 2, 3;
BNP Paribas 2, 3; BREMBO 7; BULGARI 3; BUZZI UNICEM 3; Bwin 3; BWT 3; CA Immo Anlagen 1a, 2, 3; CA Immo International 3; CAD IT 3, 5; Campari 3; Capgemini 3;
Carrefour 3; Caspian Services 1a; CEDC 2; Celesio 2, 4; Central Cooperative Bank 1a; Century Casinos 3; CEZ 3, 4; Cinema City International 3; CIR 3; Commerzbank 2;
conwert 3; Crédit Agricole 2, 3; Credit Suisse 2; CWT 3; Cyfrowy Polsat SA 3; Daimler 2, 3; Damiani 3, 5; Danone 3; De' Longhi 7; DEPFA BANK plc 3; Deutsche Bank 2, 3;
Deutsche Telekom 3; DIC Asset 3; Digital Multimedia Technologies 3, 5; DO & CO 3; E.ON 2, 3; EADS 3; ECM 3; EDF 2, 3; Edison 2, 3, 7; EDP 3; EDP Renovaveis 3; EFG
Eurobank Ergasias 2; ELICA 7; Empik 3; ENEL 2, 3, 6a, 7; ENI 2, 3, 7; Erg 3, 7; ERG Renew 3, 7; Erste Bank 2, 3; Escada 2, 4; Eurocash 4; EVN 2, 3; EXOR S.P.A. 3, 6a;
Fastweb 7; Fiat 2, 3, 4, 7; Finmeccanica 3, 7; Fondiaria-SAI 3; France Telecom 2, 3; Gas Natural 3; GDF-Suez 3; Gedeon Richter 2; Generali 1a, 3; GEOX 3; Getin Holding 4;
Grammer 3; Gruppo Coin 4, 7; GTC 3; HeidelbergCement 2, 4; Hera 7; HSBC 2; Hypo Real Estate Group 2, 3; Iberdrola 3; Iberdrola Renovables 3; IFIL 6a; IMA 3, 5, 7;
Immoeast 3; Indesit Company 7; Infineon 2, 4; Intercell 3; Intesa Sanpaolo 3; IT HOLDING 7; ITALCEMENTI 3, 6a; IVG Immobilien 2, 4; K+S 2; KGHM SA 3; Koenig & Bauer 2, 3, 4, 6a;
Komercni Banka 3; KPN NV 2; LC Corp. 3; LEONI 4; Lloyds Banking Group 2; Lloyds-TSB 2; Lotos 3; LOTTOMATICA 2, 3, 7; Lufthansa 2; Lukoil 3; LUXOTTICA GROUP 3;
MAN SE 2; Mayr-Melnhof 3; Mediaset 3; MEDIOLANUM 3; Michelin 3; Mondadori Editore 3; MPC Capital 2, 4; National Bank of Greece 2; Nestle 2; New World Resources N.V. 4; Noble
Bank SA 3; Nokia 3; Nordex AG 1a; Norilsk Nickel 3; OAO RBC Information Systems 1a; OMV 3; Orco Property Group 3; Österreichische Post 3; Palfinger 3; Pegas Nonwovens S.A. 3;
Philip Morris CR 3; Pirelli & C. Real Estate S.p.A. 4, 7; Pirelli 3, 6a, 7; Pirelli RE 4, 7; PKN 3, 4; PKO BP 2, 3; POLIS Immobilien 3; Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe 3; Poltrona Frau 1a, 3, 5, 7;
Polytec Holding 3; Postbank 2, 3; Prima Industrie 7; PROCON MultiMedia AG 3, 5; Prysmian 3; Q-Cells 2, 4; Raiffeisen International 2, 3; Rambler 3; REC 2, 4; REPLY 3, 5; RHI 3; Rhön-
Klinikum 2, 3, 4; Ronson Europe N.V. 2, 3; Royal Dutch Shell 3; RWE 2; SABAF 3, 5; Safilo Group 4, 7; SAIPEM 3; Salzgitter 2; Santander 3; SARAS 7; SBO 3; Semperit 3; SGL
Group 2, 6a; ShalkiyaZinc 1a; Sixt 3; Snam Rete Gas 2, 3, 7; Société Générale 2, 3; SOGEFI 3, 5; STEFANEL 7; Steppe Cement 3; STMicroelectronics 3; Strabag SE 3;
Südzucker 2; SurgutNG 3; Tatneft 3; Telecom Italia 3; Telefonica 2; Telefonica O2 CR 2, 3, 4; Telekom Austria 2, 3; Telekomunikacja Polska SA 3; TENARIS 3; Terna 3; TGK 12
(Kuzbassenergo) 2; TGK 14 2; ThyssenKrupp 2; Total 3; TUI 2, 4; TVN 3, 4; UBI Banca 3; UBS 2; UES Basket 1a, 3; Unipetrol 3; UNIPOL 3; Urals Energy 3; Verbund 2, 3;
Vienna Insurance Group 3; Vienna Int. Airport 3; Vimetco 4; Vizrt 3; Vodafone 2; voestalpine 2, 3; Volkswagen 3; Warimpex 2, 3; Wienerberger 2, 3; Wolford 3; Yapi Gayrimenkul
Yatirim Ortakligi 1a; Yapi Ve Kredi 1a, 4; Yensei TGK (TGK 13) 2; Zaklady Metali Lekkich Kety SA 1a; Zumtobel 3
Key 1a: UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch, UniCredit CAIB AG, UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch, UniCredit CAIB Securities UK Ltd., UniCredit Securities,
UniCredit Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Zagrebačka banka and UniCredit Bulbank and/or a company affiliated with it (pursuant to relevant domestic law) owns at least 2% of the capital
stock of the company.
Key 1b: The analyzed company owns at least 2% of the capital stock of UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch, UniCredit CAIB AG, UniCredit Bank AG Milan
Branch, UniCredit CAIB Securities UK Ltd., UniCredit Securities, UniCredit Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Zagrebačka banka and UniCredit Bulbank and/or a company affiliated with it
(pursuant to relevant domestic law).
Key 2: UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch, UniCredit CAIB AG, UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch, UniCredit CAIB Securities UK Ltd., UniCredit Securities,
UniCredit Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Zagrebačka banka and UniCredit Bulbank and/or a company affiliated with it (pursuant to relevant domestic law) belonged to a syndicate that
has acquired securities or any related derivatives of the analyzed company within the twelve months preceding publication, in connection with any publicly disclosed offer of
securities of the analyzed company, or in any related derivatives.

Greek Banks
Key 3: UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch, UniCredit CAIB AG, UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch, UniCredit CAIB Securities UK Ltd., UniCredit Securities,
UniCredit Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Zagrebačka banka and UniCredit Bulbank and/or a company affiliated (pursuant to relevant domestic law) administers the securities issued by
the analyzed company on the stock exchange or on the market by quoting bid and ask prices (i.e. acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of the analyzed
company or in any related derivatives).
Key 4: The analyzed company and UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch, UniCredit CAIB AG, UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch, UniCredit CAIB Securities UK Ltd.,
UniCredit Securities, UniCredit Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Zagrebačka banka and UniCredit Bulbank and/or a company affiliated (pursuant to relevant domestic law) concluded an
agreement on services in connection with investment banking transactions in the last 12 months, in return for which the Bank received a consideration or promise of consideration.
Key 5: The analyzed company and UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch, UniCredit CAIB AG, UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch, UniCredit CAIB Securities UK Ltd.,
UniCredit Securities, UniCredit Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Zagrebačka banka and UniCredit Bulbank and/or a company affiliated (pursuant to relevant domestic law) have concluded
an agreement on the preparation of analyses.
Key 6a: Employees of UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch and/or members of the Board of Directors of UniCredit (pursuant to relevant domestic law) are members of the Board of
Directors of the Issuer. Members of the Board of Directors of the Issuer hold office in the Board of Directors of UniCredit (pursuant to relevant domestic law).
Key 6b: The analyst is on the supervisory/management board of the company they cover.
Key 7: UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch and/or other Italian banks belonging to the UniCredit Group (pursuant to relevant domestic law) extended significant amounts of credit
facilities to the Issuer.
RECOMMENDATIONS, RATINGS AND EVALUATION METHODOLOGY

Company Date Rating Currency Target price
Alpha Bank 19/10/2009 HOLD EUR 12.00
Alpha Bank 13/10/2009 HOLD EUR 13.00
Alpha Bank 18/08/2009 SELL EUR 8.80
EFG EUROBANK ERGASIAS 18/08/2009 SELL EUR 8.00
National Bank of Greece 12/11/2009 HOLD EUR 23.00
National Bank of Greece 18/08/2009 HOLD EUR 20.50
Piraeus Bank 18/08/2009 SELL EUR 7.40
Overview of our ratings

You will find the history of rating regarding recommendation changes as well as an overview of the breakdown in absolute and relative terms of our investment ratings on our
websites www.research.unicredigroup.eu and www.cib-unicredit.com/research-disclaimer under the heading “Disclaimer.”
Note on what the evaluation of equities is based:
We currently use a three-tier recommendation system for the stocks in our formal coverage: Buy, Hold, or Sell (see definitions below):
A Buy is applied when the expected total return over the next twelve months is higher than the stock's cost of equity.
A Hold is applied when the expected total return over the next twelve months is lower than its cost of equity but higher than zero.
A Sell is applied when the stock's expected total return over the next twelve months is negative.
We employ three further categorizations for stocks in our coverage:
Restricted: A rating and/or financial forecasts and/or target price is not disclosed owing to compliance or other regulatory considerations such as blackout period or conflict of interest.
Coverage in transition: Due to changes in the research team, the disclosure of a stock's rating and/or target price and/or financial information are temporarily suspended. The
stock remains in the research universe and disclosures of relevant information will be resumed in due course.
Not rated: Suspension of coverage.
Company valuations are based on the following valuation methods: Multiple-based models (P/E, P/cash flow, EV/sales, EV/EBIT, EV/EBITA, EV/EBITDA), peer-group
comparisons, historical valuation approaches, discount models (DCF, DVMA, DDM), break-up value approaches or asset-based evaluation methods. Furthermore,
recommendations are also based on the Economic profit approach. Valuation models are dependent on macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates, exchange rates, raw
materials, and on assumptions about the economy. Furthermore, market sentiment affects the valuation of companies. The valuation is also based on expectations that might
change rapidly and without notice, depending on developments specific to individual industries. Our recommendations and target prices derived from the models might therefore
change accordingly. The investment ratings generally relate to a 12-month horizon. They are, however, also subject to market conditions and can only represent a snapshot. The
ratings may in fact be achieved more quickly or slowly than expected, or need to be revised upward or downward.
Note on the bases of evaluation for interest-bearing securities:
Our investment ratings are in principle judgments relative to an index as a benchmark.
Issuer level:
Marketweight: We recommend having the same portfolio exposure in the name as the respective reference index (the iBoxx index universe for high-grade names and the ML
EUR HY index for sub-investment grade names).
Overweight: We recommend having a higher portfolio exposure in the name as the respective reference index (the iBoxx index universe for high-grade names and the ML EUR
HY index for sub-investment grade names).
Underweight: We recommend having a lower portfolio exposure in the name as the respective reference index (the iBoxx index universe for high-grade names and the ML EUR
HY index for sub-investment grade names).
Instrument level:
Core hold: We recommend holding the respective instrument for investors who already have exposure.
Sell: We recommend selling the respective instrument for investors who already have exposure.
Buy: We recommend buying the respective instrument for investors who already have exposure.
Trading recommendations for fixed-interest securities mostly focus on the credit spread (yield difference between the fixed-interest security and the relevant government bond or
swap rate) and on the rating views and methodologies of recognized agencies (S&P, Moody’s, Fitch). Depending on the type of investor, investment ratings may refer to a short
period or to a 6 to 9-month horizon. Please note that the provision of securities services may be subject to restrictions in certain jurisdictions. You are required to acquaint
yourself with local laws and restrictions on the usage and the availability of any services described herein. The information is not intended for distribution to or use by any person
or entity in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to the applicable law or provisions.
The prices used in the analysis are the closing prices of the appropriate local trading system or the closing prices on the relevant local stock exchanges. In the case of unlisted
stocks, the average market prices based on various major broker sources (OTC market) are used.
The MSCI sourced information is the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc. (MSCI). Without prior written permission of MSCI, this information and any
other MSCI intellectual property may not be reproduced, redisseminated or used to create any financial products, including any indices. This information is provided on an “as is”
basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the
information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this
information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information
have any liability for any damages of any kind. MSCI, Morgan Stanley Capital International and the MSCI indexes are services marks of MSCI and its affiliates.
The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc. and Standard & Poor’s. GICS is a
service mark of MSCI and S&P and has been licensed for use by UniCredit CAIB Group.
Coverage Policy
A list of the companies covered by UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch, UniCredit CAIB AG, UniCredit CAIB Securities UK Ltd., UniCredit Bank AG Milan
Branch, UniCredit Securities, UniCredit Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Zagrebačka banka and UniCredit Bulbank is available upon request.

Greek Banks
Frequency of reports and updates

It is intended that each of these companies be covered at least once a year, in the event of key operations and/or changes in the recommendation. Companies for which
UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch acts as Sponsor or Specialist must be covered in accordance with the regulations of the competent market authority.
SIGNIFICANT FINANCIAL INTEREST:
UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch, UniCredit CAIB AG, UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch, UniCredit CAIB Securities UK Ltd., UniCredit Securities, UniCredit
Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Zagrebačka banka and UniCredit Bulbank and/or a company affiliated (pursuant to relevant national German, Italian, Austrian, UK, Russian and Turkish
law) with them regularly trade shares of the analyzed company. UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch, UniCredit CAIB AG, UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch,
UniCredit CAIB Securities UK Ltd., UniCredit, UniCredit Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Zagrebačka banka and UniCredit Bulbank may hold significant open derivative positions on the
stocks of the company which are not delta-neutral.
Analyses may refer to one or several companies and to the securities issued by them. In some cases, the analyzed issuers have actively supplied information for this analysis.
ANALYST DECLARATION
The author’s remuneration has not been, and will not be, geared to the recommendations or views expressed in this study, neither directly nor indirectly.
ORGANIZATIONAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE ARRANGEMENTS TO AVOID AND PREVENT CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
To prevent or remedy conflicts of interest, UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch, UniCredit CAIB AG, UniCredit CAIB Securities UK Ltd., UniCredit Bank AG Milan
Branch, UniCredit Securities, UniCredit Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Zagrebačka banka and UniCredit Bulbank have established the organizational arrangements required from a legal
and supervisory aspect, adherence to which is monitored by its compliance department. Conflicts of interest arising are managed by legal and physical and non-physical barriers
(collectively referred to as “Chinese Walls”) designed to restrict the flow of information between one area/department of UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch,
UniCredit CAIB AG, UniCredit CAIB Securities UK Ltd., UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch, UniCredit Securities, UniCredit Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Zagrebačka banka and UniCredit
Bulbank and another. In particular, Investment Banking units, including corporate finance, capital market activities, financial advisory and other capital raising activities, are
segregated by physical and non-physical boundaries from Markets Units, as well as the research department. In the case of equities execution by UniCredit Bank AG Milan
Branch, other than as a matter of client facilitation or delta hedging of OTC and listed derivative positions, there is no proprietary trading. Disclosure of publicly available conflicts
of interest and other material interests is made in the research. Analysts are supervised and managed on a day-to-day basis by line managers who do not have responsibility for
Investment Banking activities, including corporate finance activities, or other activities other than the sale of securities to clients.
ADDITIONAL REQUIRED DISCLOSURES UNDER THE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OF JURISDICTIONS INDICATED
Notice to Austrian investors
This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities and neither this document
nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever.
This document is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on to any other person or published, in
whole or part, for any purpose.
Notice to Czech investors
This report is intended for clients of UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch, UniCredit CAIB AG, UniCredit CAIB Securities UK Ltd., UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch,
UniCredit Securities, UniCredit Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Zagrebačka banka and UniCredit Bulbank in the Czech Republic and may not be used or relied upon by any other person
for any purpose.
Notice to Italian investors
This document is not for distribution to retail clients as defined in article 26, paragraph 1(e) of Regulation n. 16190 approved by CONSOB on 29 October 2007.
In the case of a short note, we invite the investors to read the related company report that can be found on UniCredit Research website www.research.unicreditgroup.eu.
Notice to Russian investors
As far as we are aware, not all of the financial instruments referred to in this analysis have been registered under the federal law of the Russian Federation “On the Securities
Market” dated April 22, 1996, as amended, and are not being offered, sold, delivered or advertised in the Russian Federation.
Notice to Turkish investors
Investment information, comments and recommendations stated herein are not within the scope of investment advisory activities. Investment advisory services are provided in
accordance with a contract of engagement on investment advisory services concluded with brokerage houses, portfolio management companies, non-deposit banks and the
clients. Comments and recommendations stated herein rely on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations. These opinions may not suit
your financial status, risk and return preferences. For this reason, to make an investment decision by relying solely on the information stated here may not result in consequences
that meet your expectations.
Notice to Investors in Japan
This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription for or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities and neither this document
nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever.
Notice to UK investors
This communication is directed only at clients of UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch, UniCredit CAIB AG, UniCredit CAIB Securities UK Ltd., UniCredit Bank AG
Milan Branch, UniCredit Securities, UniCredit Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Zagrebačka banka or UniCredit Bulbank who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to
investments or (ii) are persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) (“high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.”) of the United Kingdom Financial Services and
Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 or (iii) to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant
persons”). This communication must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this communication
relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons.
Notice to U.S. investors
This report is being furnished to U.S. recipients in reliance on Rule 15a-6 ("Rule 15a-6") under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Each U.S. recipient of this
report represents and agrees, by virtue of its acceptance thereof, that it is such a "major U.S. institutional investor" (as such term is defined in Rule 15a-6) and that it understands
the risks involved in executing transactions in such securities. Any U.S. recipient of this report that wishes to discuss or receive additional information regarding any security or
issuer mentioned herein, or engage in any transaction to purchase or sell or solicit or offer the purchase or sale of such securities, should contact a registered representative of
UniCredit Capital Markets, Inc. (“UCI Capital Markets”).
Any transaction by U.S. persons (other than a registered U.S. broker-dealer or bank acting in a broker-dealer capacity) must be effected with or through UCI Capital Markets.
The securities referred to in this report may not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and the issuer of such securities may not be subject to U.S.
reporting and/or other requirements. Available information regarding the issuers of such securities may be limited, and such issuers may not be subject to the same auditing and
reporting standards as U.S. issuers.
The information contained in this report is intended solely for certain "major U.S. institutional investors" and may not be used or relied upon by any other person for any purpose.
Such information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any securities under the Securities Act of 1933, as
amended, or under any other U.S. federal or state securities laws, rules or regulations. The investment opportunities discussed in this report may be unsuitable for certain
investors depending on their specific investment objectives, risk tolerance and financial position. In jurisdictions where UCI Capital Markets is not registered or licensed to trade in
securities, commodities or other financial products, transactions may be executed only in accordance with applicable law and legislation, which may vary from jurisdiction to
jurisdiction and which may require that a transaction be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from registration or licensing requirements.
The information in this publication is based on carefully selected sources believed to be reliable, but UCI Capital Markets does not make any representation with respect to its
completeness or accuracy. All opinions expressed herein reflect the author’s judgment at the original time of publication, without regard to the date on which you may receive
such information, and are subject to change without notice.
UCI Capital Markets may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. These publications
reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future
performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to future performance.
UCI Capital Markets and any company affiliated with it may, with respect to any securities discussed herein: (a) take a long or short position and buy or sell such securities; (b) act as
investment and/or commercial bankers for issuers of such securities; (c) act as market makers for such securities; (d) serve on the board of any issuer of such securities; and (e) act as
paid consultant or advisor to any issuer.

Greek Banks
The information contained herein may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors
that could cause a company’s actual results and financial condition to differ from expectations include, without limitation: political uncertainty, changes in general economic
conditions that adversely affect the level of demand for the company’s products or services, changes in foreign exchange markets, changes in international and domestic
financial markets and in the competitive environment, and other factors relating to the foregoing. All forward-looking statements contained in this report are qualified in their
entirety by this cautionary statement.
This document may not be distributed in Canada or Australia.

Greek Banks
UniCredit Research*
Thorsten Weinelt, CFA Dr. Ingo Heimig
Global Head of Research & Chief Strategist Head of Research Operations
+49 89 378-15110 +49 89 378-13952
thorsten.weinelt@unicreditgroup.de ingo.heimig@unicreditgroup.de
Equity Research
Mark Robinson, Head
+44 20 7826-7960, mark.robinson@caib.unicreditgroup.eu
EUROPEAN SECTOR ANALYSTS

Aerospace & Defence/Airlines/ Consumer/HPC Oil & Gas REGIONAL RESEARCH Andre Remke, CFA
Industrials Nicolas Sochovksy Sergio Molisani +49 89 378-18202
Austria
Uwe Weinreich +44 20 7826-7885 +39 02 8862-2339 Peter Rothenaicher
Peter Bauernfried, Head
+49 89 378-12640 Christian Weiz Stefano Vitali +49 89 378-18718
+43 5 05 05-82368
Gabriele Parini +49 89 378-15229 +39 02 8862-2003 Friedrich Schellmoser
Alexander Hodosi
+39 02 8862-8587 Marketing Analyst Real Estate +49 89 378-11396
+43 5 05 05-82359
Automobiles & Parts Rupert Trotter Andre Remke, CFA Jonathan Schroer, CFA
Katharina Kastenberger
Georg Stürzer +44 20 7826-7890 +49 89 378-18202 +49 89 378-12416
+43 5 05 05-82367
+49 89 378-18252 Fashion & Luxury Goods Pierluigi Amoruso Dr. Silke Stegemann
Harald Weghofer
Christian Aust, CFA +39 02 8862-8586 +49 89 378-17101
Davide Vimercati +43 5 05 05-82355
+49 89 378-11394 +39 02 8862-2456 Alexander Hodosi Michael Tappeiner
Gabriele Parini +43 5 05 05-82359 Italy +49 89 378-14163
Volker Bosse
+39 02 8862-8587 Roberto Odierna, Head Kerstin Vitvar
+49 89 378-11398 Renewables
+39 02 8862-8912 +49 89 378-11392
Banks Insurance/Financial Services Michael Tappeiner
Pierluigi Amoruso Dr. Andreas Weese
Stefan-M. Stalmann Dr. Andreas Weese +49 89 378-14163
+39 02 8862-8586 +49 89 378-12561
+44 207 826-7703 +49 89 378-12561 Friedrich Schellmoser
Giovanni D'Amico Uwe Weinreich
Eugenio M. Cicconetti Enrico Mattioli +49 89 378-11396
+39 02 8862-2007 +49 89 378-12640
+44 207 826-7972 +39 02 8862-8108 Kerstin Vitvar
Alessandro Falcioni Christian Weiz
Tania Gold Bernd Müller-Gerberding, CFA +49 89 378-11392
+39 02 8862-2242 +49 89 378-15229
+44 20 7826-7946 +49 89 378-18706 Retailers (Food) Roberto Larotonda Knut Woller
James Invine Volker Bosse
Marketing Analyst +39 02 8862-2383 +49 89 378-11381
+44 20 7826-7975 +49 89 378-11398
Joseph Champion Enrico Mattioli
Gyorgy Olah
+44 20 7826-7887 Semiconductors/ +39 02 8862-8108
+44 20 7826-7968 ESG Research
Media Telecom Equipment/ Sergio Molisani
Marketing Analyst Technology Hardware Patrick Berger, CFA
Maurizio Moretti +39 02 8862-2339
Joseph Champion +44 20 7826-7952
+39 02 8862-2715 Guenther Hollfelder, CFA Maurizio Moretti
+44 20 7826-7887 +49 89 378-18776 +39 02 8862-2715
Friedrich Schellmoser Equity Strategy
Capital Goods +49 89 378-11396 Software & IT Services Gabriele Parini
Gerhard Schwarz, Head
Alessandro Falcioni Metals & Mining Knut Woller +39 02 8862-8587
+39 02 8862-2242 +49 89 378-12421
+49 89 378-11381 Javier Suarez
Christian Obst Volker Bien
Peter Bauernfried +49 89 378-15117 Telecommunications +39 02 8862-8183
+49 89 378-18148
+43 5 05 05-82368 Thomas Friedrich, CFA Davide Vimercati
Alexander Hodosi Dr. Tammo Greetfeld
Katherina Kastenberger +49 89 378-12798 +39 02 8862-2456
+43 5 05 05-82359 +49 89 378-18361
+43 5 05 05-82367 Giovanni D'Amico Stefano Vitali
Peter Rothenaicher Mid & Small Cap Christian Stocker
+39 02 8862-2007 +39 02 8862-2003
Roberto Odierna +49 89 378-18603
+49 89 378-18718 Harald Weghofer Antonio Vizzari
Antonio Vizzari +39 02 8862-8912
+43 5 05 05-82355 +39 02 8862-2597
+39 02 8862-2597 Pierluigi Amoruso Research Marketing
+39 02 8862-2007 Tourism, Leisure & Services Germany Stephanie Ruehl
Harald Weghofer +44 207 826-7957
Peter Bauernfried Christian Obst Andreas Heine, Co-Head
+43 5 05 05-82355 +49 89 378-15117
+43 5 05 05-82368 +49 89 378-16921
Chemicals & Health Care Jonathan Schroer, CFA
Alessandro Falcioni Georg Stürzer, Co-Head
Andreas Heine +49 89 378-12416 EQUITY SALES
+39 02 8862-2242 +49 89 378-18252
+49 89 378-16921 Equity Sales London
Katharina Kastenberger Utilities Christian Aust, CFA
Markus Mayer +43 5 05 05-82367 +49 89 378-11394 +44 207 826-6949
Lueder Schumacher
+49 89 378-18670
Maurizio Moretti +44 20 7826-7967 Volker Bosse Equity Sales Milan
Dr. Silke Stegemann +39 02 8862-2715 +49 89 378-11398
Vincent Ayral +39 02 8862-0643
+49 89 378-17101 +44 207 826-7891
Peter Rothenaicher Thomas Friedrich, CFA
Construction & Materials +49 89 378-18718 Roberto Larotonda +49 89 378-12798 Equity Sales Munich
Peter Bauernfried +49 89 378-14129
Friedrich Schellmoser +39 02 8862-2383 Guenther Hollfelder, CFA
+43 5 05 05-82368 +49 89 378-11396 Javier Suarez +49 89 378-18776 Equity Sales New York
Maurizio Moretti Antonio Vizzari +39 02 8862-8183 Markus Mayer +1 212 672-6140
+39 02 8862-2715 +39 02 8862-2597 +49 89 378-18670
Kerstin Vitvar
Marketing Analyst Equity Sales Vienna
Harald Weghofer Jenny Ping Bernd Müller-Gerberding, CFA +43 5 05 05-82976
+49 89 378-11392 +43 5 05 05-82355 +49 89 378-18706
+44 207 826-7966
Christian Obst Equity Derivates
+49 89 378-15117 +44 207 826-6444
Publication Address
UniCredit Research
Moor House Bloomberg
120 London Wall UCGR
London, EC2Y 5ET
United Kingdom Internet
www.research.unicreditgroup.eu
*UniCredit Research is the joint research department of UniCredit Bank AG (UniCredit Bank), UniCredit CAIB Group (UniCredit CAIB), UniCredit Securities (UniCredit Securities),
UniCredit Menkul Değerler A.Ş. (UniCredit Menkul), Zagrebačka banka and UniCredit Bulbank.

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Equity Research

Sector Report Banks Greece 19 January 2010

Greek Banks Alpha

■ Current CDS spreads imply a 52% further fall in share prices: We

UniCredit Research page 1 See last pages for disclaimer.

CDS vs. share price disconnect 4

Greek government bond income one-third of profit 8

Reducing earnings estimates by 22% 11

UniCredit Research page 2 See last pages for disclaimer.

Trapped in the Minotaur's maze

Disconnect between sovereign spreads / banks' share prices

GGB income over one-third of 3Q09 profits

Cutting EPS estimates on average 22%

■ reduction in domestic loan growth

■ reduction in domestic NIM

■ increase in domestic cost of risk

■ increase in domestic tax charges

UniCredit Research page 3 See last pages for disclaimer.

CDS vs. share price disconnect

Greek CDS currently double that of Ireland

Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research

UniCredit Research page 4 See last pages for disclaimer.

KEY MACRO INDICATORS

Government deficit to GDP (%) Debt to GDP (%)

Source: Bloomberg, EU Commission, UniCredit Research

52% downside implied in current sovereign spreads

GR banks vs EU banks price GR vs EU CDS

Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research

UniCredit Research page 5 See last pages for disclaimer.

GREEK BANKS INDEX VS. GREEK 5Y CDS

GR banks index 6,000

Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research

UniCredit Research page 6 See last pages for disclaimer.

INDIVIDUAL SHARE PRICE VS. GREEK CDS

Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research

INDIVIDUAL SHARE PRICE VS. GREEK CDS

Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research

UniCredit Research page 7 See last pages for disclaimer.

Greek government bond income one-third of profit

GREEK GOVERNMENT BONDS AND ECB FUNDING (EUR BN)

ECB funding GGBs

Source: Company data, UniCredit Research

Alpha Eurobank NBG Piraeus Alpha Eurobank NBG Piraeus

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, UniCredit Research

UniCredit Research page 8 See last pages for disclaimer.

PROFIT IMPACT FROM HIGHER COST OF FUNDING

Source: UniCredit Research

3Q09 Greek government bond income nearly 40% of profits

UniCredit Research page 9 See last pages for disclaimer.

3Q09 NET PROFIT EXCLUDING INCOME FROM GGBs

EUR mn Alpha Eurobank NBG Piraeus

Annualized tangible RoE (%) 16% 13% 22% 13%

Source: Company data, UniCredit Research

UniCredit Research page 10 See last pages for disclaimer.

Reducing earnings estimates by 22%

More than 30% below consensus

UNICREDIT GROUP EPS ESTIMATES CHANGES

EUR Alpha Eurobank NBG Piraeus

Source: Company data, UniCredit Research estimates

■ reduce our domestic loan growth

■ reduce our domestic NIM

■ increase domestic cost of risk

UniCredit Research page 11 See last pages for disclaimer.