2020 Vision for Pomefruit Orchards

Craig Hornblow
Agfirst
August 2009

99 years to come full circle

Back to Future
1910 Nelson establishing the industrys first Major

commercial expansion
Tasmanian expert travels to Nelson to help us

visualise the future

1910 :

Quotes for the prospectus

Talk outline
The customer
Focus on the value
Your Future Limiting Resource
An In depth look at labour
Mechanisation examples to date
Growing system

Focus on the customer

Bad apple story
Changing consumption
Seek consistent fantastic experience
It will be done with technology post harvest
It adds value for sure
But it costs
We need to deliver in the orchard to be in control of costs

Genetics

Create that taste experience

Where should we focus?

25%
Post harvest
50%

Labour

other Orchard
25%

Focus on fruit hat has a

positive margin(colour,
size, brix...)

Lower risk of
supply improve
packouts

Less wastage
Consistency of all aspects
genetics

Future limiting resource

Land
Water
(genetics)
Labour
Capital

What do Know about Labour?

Availability of Labour?
Need to pay them more.
The need to lower costs
Permanent staff
Asking them to manage more area . Expect more of them
Spending too much time on people and not looking at
apples

Casual staff
Availability declining
much less skill

Orchard costs per export Carton

Excludes drawings/interest/tax/reinvestment
20
18
16
14
$/CE

12
10

8
6
4
2
0
1999

2000

2001

2002
Total

2003

2004

2005

2006

Labour Costs
$ per hectare

$14,000
$12,000

$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

$/CE

Orchard Wage costs per export Carton

10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1999

2000

2001

2002
Wages

2003
Total

2004

2005

2006

Labour
50% of on orchard costs
hours per hectare on average
930 (NZ)
1300 Chile
580 Italy
So what could we save?
30% = $0.07/kg
Can we halt the increase?

What should we focus on?

Picking
48%

Tree Training
6%

Other
10%

thinnning
16%

pruning
16%

spraying mowing
fert
4%

Labour profile per month

400
350
300
250
200
150
100

50
0
June

Other

july

august

training

september october

november december

spraying mowing fert

january

pruning

february

march

thinnning

april

may

Picking

Labour profile per month

400
350
300
250
200
150

100
50
0
June

Other

july

august

training

september october november december

spraying mowing fert

january

pruning

february

march

thinnning

april

may

Picking

Adjusting Labour peaks

Maintain full employment for skilled permanent

workforce
Minimise peak inflows of unskilled labour needing
supervision
Improved pruning and thinning strategies
Spread of varieties for harvest.

Labour per month

(2 late varieties)
400
350
300
250
200

150
100
50

0
June

Other

july

august september october november december january

training

spraying mowing fert

pruning

february

march

thinnning

april

may

Picking

An Example:
Platforms and Picking machines

 Back to the future: Need 2 people to shift a ladder

Source new labour pools

Appropriate space
How far can you reach?
A rotating bin needs 1.7m
of space.

We can make our best workers

more effecient

 Mechanisation will

need simple orchard

systems.
Future proof your
plantings!

 We have reduced

labour hours .
Increased capital
A daily rate for labour
is very flexible.
A $75,000 picking
platform is not.
You need
appropriate orchards.
To maximise the
investment.

The Zucal Picking machine

Zucal as an example
$120,000
Well structured orchard

should pick 2500 bins per

season
Capital cost $6-8 per bin.

Zucal as an example
Supporting tractor driver

can handle 5000 bins per

year.
Supporting tractor driver
for ladder picking can only
do 2600 bins.

Zucal as an example
Fruit quality increases

not confirmed but

likely to be no real
improvement
(technology gap)
Ability to grade major
defects is improved,
hail sunburn etc.

Zucal as an example
Work not as physically

demanding.
Major benefit is
pickings do not need
to be strong or as fit.
happy to work longer
hours over longer
period.

 Whats wrong with this

picture?
The cost of fixed
capital?
You have to be an
excellent grower!

Picking machine video

Critical factors to the success of

platforms
Canopy width no greater than 1.4 total. An arms reach

each side!
Economies of scale (some options)
Change in risk management strategy.
Increasing capital trees, land, frost protection, Hail water

etc...

Risk

Critical factors to the success of

platforms
Canopy width no greater than 1.4 total. An arms reach

each side!
Economies of scale (some options)
Change in risk management strategy.
Increasing capital trees, land, frost protection, Hail water

etc...

Consistent production (excellent growers). Applying

all our skills

Currently just shifting the cost flexible to fixed capital
Capitalising Labour, R&M, interest

Spraying technology
Improved thinning
Ability to target specific area of the tree
Lower residue
More effect control

New technology?
Targeting the tops

Targeting the tops with a platform

 As rows narrow we need a

30% gain in efficiency to

have the same work rate.
In essence its at least 30
year old technology

$100, 000
Capitalising the job again
We need a new solution
Genetics

Forward to the past

Our biggest cost ?

The time out of production
If

genetics will pay a part

Customer falling love with apples and pears

Mechanisation
Less water, spraying

We will need to have changing orchards

We need fast effective models
1910 no crop in the first 8 years
1960 a crop in the first 5 years
2010 200 tonnes in the first 5 years
2020 120 tonnes by first 3 years

 72 tonnes in year 3
>200 tonnes in 4

years
A Function of
density, early
growth and variety
(genetics)

Canopy changes
What you have planted this year is your Orchard of

2020.
Think Carefully

Initial execution sets the limit

Too make the most of future technology We

will need to meet the new age scientist way.

Solution to changing labour

Simpler systems
More profit so we can pay our staff more

Have the ability to apply new and emerging

technology
Less wastage, more production with positive
gross margin.

Can simpler systems achieve top

production
2850 trees per ha
18 branches per tree
65 cm long
33 km per hectare

25-38 km

4 dimensional

3 dimensional

2 dimensional

Complex system

Simpler

Simplest

need high degree of skill (4th D)

Improved quality

Ability to be market specific

Wide range of size quality

Apply existing technology

New and existing technologies

We need to have simple Tree Forms?

Can simpler systems achieve top

production
We need 35km per hectare of fruiting wood to produce 80 tonnes.
1 fruit every 80mm

20-35 km

25-38 km

32 km

41 km

We need to look ahead

Identify the obstacles' before we hit them.

Summary
New Focus on Value not production
To create real solutions we need to meet way
Narrow simple canopies
We need to be excellent horticulturalists
We need to be extraordinary with our staff
Not just willing to change but Excellent at adaption

and change.