UPDATING OF SERVICE LIFE PREDICTION OF REINFORCED CONCRETE

STRUCTURES WITH POTENTIAL MAPPING

Sylvia Keler1, Johannes Fischer2, Daniel Straub2, Christoph Gehlen1
1

Centre for Building Materials, Technische Universitt Mnchen, Germany

Engineering Risk Analysis Group, Technische Universitt Mnchen, Germany

ABSTRACT
The service life of reinforced concrete structures strongly depends on the durability of the used
materials. The reinforcement often deteriorates due to chloride induced corrosion. Nowadays,
full probabilistic design models are available, that allow prediction of service life of new
structures as well as condition assessment of existing structures for the initiation period. The
latter comprises the time span until the chloride content surrounding the reinforcement reaches a
critical corrosion inducing level after which depassivation takes place and the degradation period
with active corrosion begins.
At the point in time when the corrosion process is initiated, corroding areas can only be detected
non-destructively with the aid of potential mapping measurements. Hereby, the spatial
information gained in executing potential mapping can be used for updating the service life
prediction with consideration of the spatial variability of the corrosion process. A more accurate
condition assessment of the structure can therefore be provided. This paper presents a case study
for spatial updating the service life prediction with potential mapping.
Key-words: Life cycle prediction; potential mapping; updating, spatial variability

INTRODUCTION
The full-probabilistic service life prediction is an essential tool to manage and maintain new and
existing reinforced concrete structures. Since the development of the full probabilistic model [1]
it is possible to calculate the initiation phase of corrosion deterioration.
Condition assessment will be still necessary to identify the beginning and the extent of
corrosion. Degradation of reinforced concrete structures vary in space due to the spatial variation
of concrete resistances, the variation of the exposure condition and the construction process. For
a realistic description of condition state of a structure spatial variability of degradation processes
must be considered when evaluating existing structures. Therefore, degradation processes such
as corrosion can be described by spatial random fields.
The data coming from inspection can be used to update the model prediction. Inspection data
provide not only information about the temporal development of corrosion processes. Inspection

data can also be used for spatial description of corrosion progresses. So the condition of existing
structures can be evaluated more realistic. The procedure of the temporal and spatial condition
description of reinforced concrete structures by random fields and the updating with potential
mapping data are demonstrated in the presented example.

RESEARCH OBJECT
The research object is a reinforced concrete underpass in a city with increasing traffic volume.
The underpass was built in 1961. The inspection data are generated in 2008, when the structure
was 47 years old. Due to the climate and the traffic the reinforced structure belongs to the
exposure class XD3. The underpass consists of abutments and retaining walls. Each site of the
underpass is more than 200 m long. For a better overview the evaluation of one part (field 14) of
the retaining wall is presented.

Field 14
Figure 1 Underpass with the selected retaining wall part (marked).

Inspection data of research object

An inspection is an examination of a structure or its components with the target of gathering
information about the current condition. Additionally and this is the aim of the current study, the
measured data can be used for updating the service life prediction.
In the presented case when chloride induced corrosion is expected the determination of the
concrete cover is an important input parameter. In reality the concrete cover isnt a constant
value. The life time prediction can be calculated with the measured concrete cover. The spatial
variability of the concrete cover and so the spatial variability of the deterioration process is taken
into account.
The beginning of corrosion is equal to the end of the initiation period. An effective inspection
method which is able to divide a reinforced concrete structures into corroding and non-corroding
area is the potential mapping. Due to that potential mapping data can be used to confirm that and
where corrosion has started. Potential mapping can only deliver information about the corrosion
state during the measurement. Statements about earlier or future corrosion processes are not
possible. The advantage of potential mapping is that the measurement can be performed grid-like
over the structure or a component and so potential mapping delivers spatial information about
corrosion condition state.

The following diagrams (Figure 2) show concrete cover and potential mapping data from
field 14.
Concrete cover

Farbe:

Legend
Wertebereich:
20
25
30
35
40
45
50

Potential mapping

Farbe:

X < 20 mm
mm <= X < 25
mm <= X < 30
mm <= X < 35
mm <= X < 40
mm <= X < 45
mm <= X < 50
mm <= X < 55
X >= 55 mm

mm
mm
mm
mm
mm
mm
mm

Wertebereich:
X <= -450 mV
-450 mV < X <= -400 mV

5m

-400 mV < X <= -350 mV

-350 mV < X <= -300 mV

-300 mV < X <= -250 mV

-250 mV < X <= -200 mV

-200 mV < X <= -150 mV

12 m

-150 mV < X <= -100 mV

X > -100 mV

Figure 2 Inspection data of field 14: concrete cover (above); potential mapping (below)
The data of the potential measurement is plotted in the following histogram (Figure 3).

Figure 3 The histogram of the measured potential differences

Looking at the concrete cover results (Figure 2) the spatial variability of the measurement
becomes obvious. The concrete cover varies widely between 25 mm till 55 mm. For calculating
the life time prediction by means of the concrete cover (mean value and standard deviation) the
uncertainty of the model prediction would arise. Therefore the spatial variability of the concrete
cover will be considered during updating and so the life time prediction will be more
differentiated.
As well as the concrete cover values the potential mapping data are very inhomogeneous. The
spatial variability is quite observable. Potentials between -450 mV till -100 mV are measured. It
is of interest to evaluate visually low potentials and high potential gradients first because these
are indicating corroding areas. In the presented case study three gradient areas with low
potentials can be found on the left side. Without looking deeper into the evaluation here,
corrosion can be expected with a high probability.
Service life prediction
In concrete embedded reinforcement is protected against corrosion due to the high alkalinity of
the pore solution. A thin iron oxide layer, the so called passive layer, is formed. The passive

layer can be destroyed locally by ingress of chlorides coming from de-icing salt or seawater if a
critical chloride concentration exceeds the steel surface. This initiation period can be calculated
with a full probabilistic model [1] for the determination of the point in time when depassivation
occurs.

d c x
) 0
pC crit C( x d c , t ) C 0 (CS, x C 0 1 erf
a

2 k e D RCM,0 k t t 0 t

C(x,t):
Ccrit:

chloride content at depth x and time t

critical corrosion inducing chloride content at depth of
reinforcement
initial chloride content of concrete
substitute surface chloride concentration at depth x
concrete cover
depth with a corresponding content of chlorides C(x,t)
thickness of the convection zone layer
factor for considering temperature impact on DRCM,0
rapid chloride migration coefficient
transfer parameter (test method)
reference testing time (t 0 = 28d)
ageing exponent

C0:
CS,x:
dc:
x:
x:
ke:
DRCM,0:
kt:
t0:
a:

(1)

[wt.-%/cem.]
[wt.-%/cem.]
[wt.-%/cem.]
[wt.-%/cem.]
[mm]
[mm]
[mm]
[-]
[mm/year]
[-]
[year]
[-]

This chloride ingress model is based on a solution of Ficks second law of diffusion assuming
that diffusion is the dominant transport mechanism. While diffusion is not appropriate for
covering the transport mechanisms for the near-surface layer exposed to intermittent wetting and
drying, the solution of Ficks second law has been modified by neglecting the data until reaching
the thickness of the convection layer x whereupon modelling starts with a substitute surface
concentration of CS,x.
Due to the age of the structure there is no information available about the concrete composition.
In comparisons to the used material and codes in during construction it is assumed a Portland
cement with a water/binder ratio of 0.5 was used. The full probabilistic service life prediction is
calculated with the following input parameter (Table 1).
Table 1 Input parameter for the full-probabilistic initiation model
Parameter

Unit
-12

DRCM,0

[10

Mean

St. Dev.

Comments

Normal

498.3

99.7

[-]

Beta 0 a 1

0.3

0.12

t0

[years]

0.0767

tinsp

[years]

47

kt

[-]

Tref [K]

293

Treal [K]

Normal

282

be

[K]

Normal

4800

700

fib bulletin No. 34 [1]

C0

[wt.-%/cem.]

concrete composition

CS,x

[wt.-%/cem.]

LogNormal

2.73

1.23

Ccrit

[wt.-%/cem.]

Beta 0 Ccrit 2

0.6

0.15

fib bulletin No. 34 [1]

[mm]

Beta 0 x 50

8.9

5.6

fib bulletin No. 34 [1]

ke

m/s]

Distribution

fib bulletin No. 34 [1]

fib bulletin No. 34 [1]
age of the structure

fib bulletin No. 34 [1]

fib bulletin No. 34 [1]
exposure condition

The concrete cover dc, and the other uncertain model parameter X = [dc, DRCM,0, Ccrit, and CS,x] are
modelled by a spatial random field. Random field modelling of corrosion in reinforced structures
has been presented in several studies [2], [4], [5].
The spatial covariance of each uncertain model parameter X is described by a monotonically
decreasing function.
COV[ X i , X j ] x2 exp(

disti,j:
lX,k:
X:

dist i, j
lx

(2)

distance between location i and j

correlation length
standard deviation of the model random variable

[m]
[m]

It was assumed a correlation length for each parameter lX,k = 1 [m]. More research is needed to
investigate correlation length of different material and exposure parameters in reinforced
concrete structures.
Updating service life prediction
The model updating after an inspection at time t insp is straightforward by applying Bayes rules:
P(condition inspection )

P(condition inspection )
P(inspection )

(3)

The Bayesian approach can combine pre-existing knowledge (structure condition coming from
service life prediction) with subsequent available information (inspection data) and allows
updating the prior knowledge. The inspection results are assumed to be dependent only on the
condition state at the time of inspection.
Consider F to be the event of the initiation of the corrosion process at the reinforcement and let
X = [X1, X2, , Xn]T be the basic random variables with joint probability density function
(PDF) fx(x) influencing the deterioration function. The event F is usually described by the
failure/corrosion domain F = {g(x) 0}, in which g(x) is the limit state function. The
probability Pr(F) of the corrosion event is calculated by means of structural reliability methods
(SRM) by integration of fx(x) over the failure domain F as
Pr(F)

....

fX ( x ) dx1 dx 2 ...dx n

fx ( x ) dx

(4)

which may be evaluated by any structural reliability method (SORM).

When observations Z of the corrosion process are available from measurements and inspections,
they can be described by a domain Z in the space of X. The probability of the event F can then
be updated following [2], [3] and [5] with the new information using the definition of
conditional probability
Pr(F Z)

Pr(F Z)

Pr(Z)

F Z

f X ( x ) dx

fx ( x ) dx

(5)

The detailed description of this reliability update procedure is presented in [2], [3] and [5].

To perform the probability updating conditional on the potential mapping U, the domains where
the reinforcement is either active or passive have to be distinguished and the parameters of the
potential-difference densities, which are both assumed to be normally distributed, have to be
estimated. In the present case, the Maximum-Likelihood-Estimate (MLE) Method [6], [7] was
applied to do so.
As mentioned before, the event F denotes the event of the corrosion process to be initiated,
which means that the reinforcement is active. In the following Figure 4, three functions, whose
parameters are estimated using the MLE method, are shown: The black curve represents the joint
probability density function of the potential differences, fU(u); the red curve denotes the
potential-difference density given the reinforcement is active, F, and the blue one shows the
potential-difference density given the reinforcement being passive, F .

Figure 4 The three density functions of the potential differences: total (black), active (red),
passive (blue)
All potentials lower than -300 mV belong certainly to the corroding parts. Potential values more
positive than -300 mV cannot indicate certainly corrosion. But with increasing potentials the
probability of corrosion decreases. As it can be recognized in Figure 4, there is a big domain,
where the active and the passive distribution overlap each other; this may introduce large
uncertainties to the probability update when potential-mapping data lie in this overlapping
domain. This may induce severe consequences: either a repair is executed although it is not
necessary or a wrong all-clear may bring further damages and additional costs in future.
To calculate the probability update of the depassivation probability, Pr(F|U), the rule for
conditional probabilities is applied, see [8].
Results of updating service life prediction with inspection data
The update of the service life prediction with inspection data is made with each inspection
method on its own and with both inspection data concrete cover measurement and potential
mapping - together (Figure 5-Figure 7). All updates are realized at the time of inspection
tinsp. = 47 years.

Figure 5 Depassivation probability update of field 14 with cover depth data

Figure 6 Depassivation probability update of field 14 with potential mapping data

Figure 7 Depassivation probability update of field 14 with cover depth and potential mapping
data
The update with cover depth data shows depassivation probabilities from 20 to 60 %. Major part
of the area has a depassivation probability of 20 %. Two spots with higher depassivation
probabilities are in the left side above and in the middle below. But the concrete cover cannot
indicate actual deterioration condition like the potential mapping. The corrosion probability after
the update with potential mapping data divides the inspection field diagonal into two parts. The
left side and the lower parts have really high depassivation probabilities with over 90 %. Along
the boundary to the top-right side corrosion probabilities of approximately 60 % are calculated
and changing till 0 % corrosion probability.
The depassivation probability update with cover depth and potential mapping show similar
results like the potential mapping update. So the potential mapping update has much more
impact than the concrete cover update.
The corrosion probability is very high in general. This is due to the fact that the structure is
relatively old and is exposed to one of the most aggressive exposure condition.

SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK

The maintenance of the serviceability of our aging reinforced concrete structure is one of the
major tasks for civil engineers in future. The probabilistic service life prediction with
consideration of recently gained inspection data is a powerful tool to accomplish this task. This
paper presents a case study of a successful updating of the service life prediction with concrete
cover measurement and potential mapping data. The special innovation of this procedure is the
consideration of the spatial variability of the deterioration process.
Comparing the concrete cover update with the potential mapping update the potential mapping
update has much more influence on the depassivation probability than the concrete cover update.
Potential mapping is an important inspection method.
Inspection and maintenance planning can be executed more precisely by taking into account the
spatial variability of the deterioration process. As a result this approach allows to reduce
maintenance costs along the life cycle of structures.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors wish to thank the engineering firm Ingenieurbro Schiel Gehlen Sodeikat GmbH
for supporting the project with provision of the measurement object.

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