An Agenda for Leadership

on Global Development:
Transforming U.S. Foreign Policy toward
Indonesia?
Focusing on the Barack Obama Effect

by:
James V. Riker, Ph.D.
 An Agenda for Leadership on Global
Development:
Transforming U.S. Foreign Policy
toward Indonesia?
Focusing on the Barack Obama Effect

James V. Riker, Ph.D.

University of Maryland

Presented at the 15th INFID Conference on “Dynamics of

Democracy and Economic Development in Indonesia,”
Jakarta, Indonesia, 27-30 October 2008
I. “The Whole World Is Watching”:
Global Perspectives on the U.S. Elections
• International polls conducted by Pew/BBC/PIPA and the
Economist have all shown that people around the world are
strongly in favor of a Barack Obama presidency.
• Over 90 percent of U.S. citizens believe that the United
States is heading in the wrong direction (Washington Post).
President Bush’s approval rating is now at an all-time low of
27 percent.
• Senator Obama leads Senator McCain in the latest polls by
8 to 10 percent (CNN, October 21-23, 2008). Bill Clinton is
predicting a political “earthquake on election day” that will
lead to a victory of Senator Barack Obama as president, but
also significant increases in seats won by the Democratic
Party in the House (estimate: 24-30 seats) and the Senate
(estimate 8-10 seats), thus giving the new president a
sizeable majority in both bodies of the U.S. Congress.
I. “The Whole World Is Watching”:
Global Perspectives on the U.S. Elections
• There is a critical need for immediate U.S.
presidential leadership on an overwhelming
agenda of both domestic and foreign policy
priorities.
• Many of the new members of the U.S. Congress
may not be as progressive or visionary as the
President Obama, especially on key foreign
policy issues, such as climate change, foreign
aid, trade agreements, and the Global War on
Terror.
 II. A Progressive Response for Global
Leadership: Transforming U.S. Foreign
Policy through Soft Power?
• An amazing array of challenges at both the
domestic and foreign levels pose significant
constraints for transforming the United States’
relationship with the world and for inspiring global
leadership.
• Moreover, important questions remain whether
the Bush Administration has booby-trapped the
chances for any successes given the foreign
policy problems, economic crisis and financial
constraints faced by the new government
(i.e., the cupboard is bare – there is no money!).
Daunting Challenges: The Bush Legacy and
the U.S. Capacity for Global Leadership (1)
 Daunting Challenges: The Bush Legacy and
the U.S. Capacity for Global Leadership (2)

• “The next president [of the United States] will

inherit leadership of a nation that is still the most
powerful in the world – a nation rich with the
continued promise of its dynamic and
increasingly diverse population, a nation that
could, and must, again inspire, mobilize, and
lead the world. At the same time, the next
president will inherit a more difficult opening-day
set of international problems than any of his
predecessors have since at least the end of
World War II.” -- Richard Holbrooke (2008: 2).
 Daunting Challenges: The Bush Legacy and
the U.S. Capacity for Global Leadership (3)
• Military Power (hard power): Despite having world’s strongest
military, “the world is more dangerous, America’s enemies are
more numerous, and its international standing is vastly
diminished” (Gordon, 2008: 1).

• Economic Power (hard power): Due to the growing financial

crisis, the U.S. economy faces the prospects for a long-term
recession and reduced government funding for both domestic
and foreign policy priorities. (U.S. Federal Debt = $10+ trillion)

• Power of Ideas (soft power): A new vision and ideas are

needed to inspire, mobilize, and actualize global leadership
to solve critical global issues (Nye, 2004 & 2008).
Daunting Challenges: The Bush Legacy and
the U.S. Capacity for Global Leadership (4)

Approach Three Shocks to Three Converging

Global Economy Global Crises
(focus on stability) (focus on change)
Commodity Global Food Shock Climate Change
vs. Process Crisis
Commodity Global Oil Shock Peak Oil Crisis
vs. Process
Market Global Financial Biodiversity Crisis
Correction Shock (loss of species)
vs. Process
 Strategic Vision (and ideas) for
Inspiring Global Leadership
• Does the U.S. possess the vision and
ideas to inspire multilateral cooperation to
address these global crises?
– G-20 Summit on November 15th will address the
Global Financial Crisis where the emphasis will
be mainly on stabilization of financial markets.
Limited prospect for addressing global
economic planning, governance and the
North-South economic gap.
– Obama proposes major global initiatives on
climate change and renewable energy solutions.
 Resources (and expertise) for
Mobilizing Global Leadership
• Does the U.S. possess the financial and
natural resources and expertise to provide
effective action on global crises?
– “Our oligarchic class is incompetent at governing,
managing the economy, coping with natural
disasters, educating our young, handling foreign
affairs, providing basic services like health care
and safeguarding individual rights”– Chris Hedges
(2008:1).
– The U.S. government faces extremely limited
financial resources, declining energy resources,
and inadequate and ill-trained experts to take
effective action on these global crises.
 Relationships (partners) for
Actualizing Global Leadership
• What are possibilities for meaningful
multilateral cooperation given U.S.
unilateralism over last 8 years?
– Obama advocates renewed emphasis on
global diplomacy and development by building
meaningful alliances with key partner
governments and institutions.
– If U.S. builds trust and takes clear steps for
multilateral cooperation, many nations are
prepared to engage in shared global action.
III. Changing U.S. Foreign Policy Priorities

• Obama’s first priority is to end the war in Iraq and

negotiate “a responsible, phased withdrawal” of
U.S. combat troops in consultation with Iraq.
• Obama proposes a new transformative global
agenda in favor of “dignity promotion” that fixes
“the conditions of misery that breed anti-
Americanism and prevent liberty, justice and
prosperity from taking root.” (Ackerman, 2008:7).
• Obama has called for the United States to re-
assert it global leadership with a renewed
emphasis on partnerships with other nations and
an emphasis on engaged multilateralism through
the United Nations, IMF and World Bank.
 Curbing Climate Change
• Obama advocates ratification of the Kyoto Protocol
and full re-engagement in developing a new global
agreement under the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCC).
• Obama proposes an economy-wide cap-and-trade
program to reduce U.S. global greenhouse gas
emissions 80 percent by 2050.
• Obama proposes that 10 percent of U.S. electricity
is generated by renewable energy sources by 2012
and 25 percent by 2025.
• Obama proposes creating a Global Energy Forum
of the world’s largest emitters (including China and
Indonesia) to focus on clean global energy and
environmental issues.
 Eradicating Poverty
• Obama has endorsed the Millennium
Development Goal (MDG) of reducing extreme
poverty by 50 percent by 2015. He will double
foreign development assistance to $50 billion by
2012 to achieve that goal.
• Obama proposes to invest at least $50 billion by
2013 to combat HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and
malaria.
• Obama proposes a $2 billion Global Education
Fund to develop primary education in
impoverished areas.
Ensuring Security Sector Reform?
• Obama pledges to responsibly redeploy
and withdraw U.S. combat troops in Iraq.
• Obama has called for increasing the U.S.
military budget, while enhancing oversight
of excessive military contracts and
procurement budgets for new weapons
systems.
• Obama proposes enlarging the U.S.
armed forces by more than 92,000 troops,
and increase combat troops and resources
in Afghanistan.
Re-invigorating Bilateral, Regional and Multi-lateral
Approaches to Economic Cooperation:
Governance, Foreign Aid and Trade
• Obama proposes to strengthen multilateral
approaches and institutions to solve global
problems, especially the United Nations.
• Obama proposes to double foreign non-military
aid to $50 billion by 2012 to address global
poverty, climate change, and epidemic diseases
(i.e., HIV/AIDS, Avian flu).
• Obama seeks strong environmental and labor
rights standards as part of any new trade
agreements.
 Addressing the Global Food Crisis?

• Obama proposes an “Add Value to

Agriculture Initiative” for seed capital and
technical assistance for small and medium
agricultural enterprises in Africa.
• Obama proposes to increase funding for
renewable bio-fuels (i.e., corn-based and
cellulosic ethanol) for energy
development.
 Addressing Foreign Debt and
Financing for Development
• Obama calls for 100 percent debt cancellation for the
world’s Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC).
• Obama has pledged to lead a multilateral effort to
address the issue of “odious debts” created by
corrupt non-elected governments and to explore
ways in which “loan sanctions” could be enacted to
discourage private creditors from lending money to
repressive, authoritarian regimes (Zunes, 2008).
• Obama has promised to push the World Bank to
provide poor countries with grants instead of loans,
and to enact reforms at both the IMF and World
Bank to provide emergency resources to nations
most affected by the global economic shocks.
Advancing and Protecting Human Rights?
• Obama must decide how to deal with the
detainees at Guantanamo Bay. Bush will
not close Guantanamo as it involves “too
many legal and political risks to be
acceptable” (New York Times, 10/22/08).
• Obama has refused to unconditionally
endorse U.S. ratification of the treaty
establishing the International Criminal
Court (ICC) due to concerns about
protections for U.S. soldiers (Zunes,
2008).
 Ensuring Peace and Stability in Asia

• Obama strongly supports the U.S. military role in

Afghanistan and proposes to add two combat
brigades of troops to stabilize the region.
• Obama supports ratification of the Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) governing nuclear
weapons.
• Obama proposes special shared partnerships to
enhance collaboration with key countries in Asia
(i.e., Australia, China, India, Japan, and South
Korea) as well as regional institutions such as
ASEAN and APEC.
U.S. Leadership for Global Development
• Overall, an Obama
government offers a
positive agenda for
leadership on global
development issues.
• However, there are
still mixed signals and
significant questions
whether the U.S. can
inspire, mobilize and
actualize that global
leadership to solve
these major global
issues!