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Analysis
Jerel Rosati and Colleen E. Miller
Subject International Studies Foreign Policy Analysis
Psychology Political Psychology
Key-Topics decision making, interdisciplinary research
DOI: 10.1111/b.9781444336597.2010.x
Introduction
The last few decades have witnessed major developments and scholarly advances in
understanding the dynamics of cognition. This scholarship reflects an explosion in the literature
on cognition over the last decade in the fields of psychology, political science, and political
psychology; hence, a need for it to be reviewed and integrated within the larger study of foreign
policy and international relations. Yet, the literature has become so large and extensive that a
comprehensive review of the vast body of cognitive-oriented scholarship in foreign policy
accumulated over the years makes it a very difficult if not virtually impossible undertaking (see
Rosati 2004).
In an article published in International Studies Review, Rosati (2000) reviewed the literature on
human cognition and policy-maker beliefs, especially as applied to the study of foreign policy
and world politics. This essay is intended to be read as a supplement to the 2000 ISR article to see
to what extent progress has been made toward a new generation of scholarship.
The two articles can be recapped as follows. The first (Rosati 2000) cites and reviews the
literature extensively in terms of how beliefs and cognition matter for foreign policy and world
politics. We found that upon reviewing and citing the literature, a major contribution has been
made in five basic/substantive/theoretical ways (or patterns): (1) through the content of policymaker beliefs; (2) through the organization and structure of policy-maker beliefs; (3) through
common patterns of perception and misperception; (4) through cognitive rigidity and flexibility;
and (5) through its impact on policy.
This essay serves as a supplement to the previous one, focusing on the evolution of the study of
political psychology and cognition and addressing to what extent contemporary literature has
moved things forward, resulting in a new generation. Our answer is that it has not; that it is for
the most part a continuation and fine tuning of the research reviewed in the 2000 ISR article.
Hence, the essay recommends that six things need to occur to result in a real new generation of
scholarship.
This essay takes a complimentary but different approach to the literature from the Rosati (2000)
article. It does not simply update works of literatures that have already been cited. Instead, it
addresses three basic questions:
This should provide the basis for clarifying and improving the foundation that political
psychology, and in particular a cognitive approach, has for contributing to a better understanding
of the dynamics of not only foreign policy, but also the larger study of world politics.
To be clear, there have been terrific advancements within political psychology and the study of
cognition over the years (and the first two generations of scholarship), together with increased
sophistication, but there is little evidence that over the past decade there has been much that
has been truly new or unique, or different from previous scholarship. It has now become a mature
and established field, where much of the work of the third generation is not substantially different
from earlier scholarship and more classic works. What once was a revolutionary science has
become increasingly normal science as Thomas Kuhn (1962) so powerfully explained in The
Structures of Scientific Revolutions. While the assertion that much contemporary scholarship is
old wine [or refined wine] in new bottles is controversial and provocative, hopefully it also
recognizes the great advances that have been made and will spur a thoughtful and constructive
dialogue with respect to the question of where we go from here.
More specifically, the essay arrives at the following conclusions:
Over 60 years and two generations of scholarship, the political psychological study of man is
no longer scientifically undeveloped (or underdeveloped) as it has been over the millennia and it
needs to become part of multi-level and multi-causal explanations of human and world politics.
All of this may complicate the study of cognition, political psychology, and world politics, but it
may also better represent the psychological environment and the objective environment that
we and the world must operate.
The remainder of the essay is organized along the following lines. First, the essay briefly reviews
what is the essence of a cognitive approach. Second, an overview is provided as to how political
psychology, cognition, and the study of world politics has evolved as a theoretically oriented
discipline over the course of basically two generations of scholarship. Finally, the essay discusses
the six elements that are believed to be necessary to provide the foundation for a new generation
of scholarship.
becomes more expert or skilled, the less one has to consciously think and the more one can
operate automatically and intuitively based on certain cognitive processes such is the power of
the mind (Steinbruner 1974:924).
With each new period, the political psychological study of human beings and cognition has grown
tremendously in quantity and sophistication, impacting an understanding of the dynamics of
foreign policy and world politics.
Philosophers and individuals throughout the ages have been interested in understanding the
enigma of the human mind. But as Howard Gardner makes clear in The Mind's New Science: A
History of the Cognitive Revolution, it was not until the middle of the twentieth century that
contributions from a variety of fields especially philosophy, psychology, artificial intelligence,
linguistics, anthropology, and neuroscience produced a cognitive revolution and the
development of a cognitive science. As Gardner (1985:45, 9) states, Armed with tools and
concepts unimaginable even a century ago, a new cadre of thinkers called cognitive scientists has
been investigating many of the same issues that first possessed the Greeks some twenty-five
hundred years ago. In fact, One might say that cognitive science has a very long past but a
relatively short history (on the history of cognitive psychology, see also Markus and Zajonc
1985; Anderson 2004).
The evolution of the political psychological study of international relations naturally has been
heavily influenced by developments in psychology. In Social Cognition, Susan Fiske and Shelley
Taylor (1991, ch. 1) highlight four general views of the thinker that have evolved within the
cognitive literature in psychology over the years:
1 The consistency seeker (people are motivated to maintain consistency and reduce
discrepancies among their beliefs).
2 The naive scientist (people are capable of making attributions about the causes of
behavior in a relatively sensible and fairly rational way).
3 The cognitive miser (people are limited in their capacity to process information, so they
tend to take shortcuts and simplify).
4 The motivated tactician (people have multiple cognitive strategies available and choose
among them based on their goals, motives, and needs sometimes wisely, sometimes
defensively).
Where the first generation of scholarship (which dominated the 1950s and 1960s) depicted a
relatively simple cognitive process based on people being consistency seekers, the second
generation of scholarship (basically since the 1970s) describes a much more sophisticated
cognitive process based on developments in cognitive psychology and social cognition, where the
human being acts more as a naive scientist and, in particular, cognitive miser. Given the
inevitability of time lags when it comes to cross-disciplinary fertilization, the motivated tactician
perspective is only beginning to be felt within the study of foreign policy and world politics. A
brief historical overview broken down into three time periods reflecting the growing
sophistication of the scholarship should allow us to have a discourse on what would be the key
characteristics for a new and third generation of scholarship (see Rosati 2000: see also Kelman
1965a; De Rivera 1968; Knutson 1973; Holsti 1976; Hermann 1977; 1986; Falkowski 1979;
Hopple 1982; Deutsch 1983; Tetlock and McGuire 1985; White 1986; Vertzberger 1990; Glad
1991; Singer and Hudson 1992; Rosati 1995).
relations scholars became interested in making their field more empirical and scientific. Nowhere
was this interaction greater than among those who advocated a decision-making approach to the
study of foreign policy (see Snyder et al. 1962).
In comparison to the early efforts by psychologists, the late 1950s and 1960s represented the
beginning of a qualitative leap forward for psychological and cognitive approaches to the study of
international relations. Psychological approaches increasingly were applied from an international
relations and political perspective:
Writings have shown increasing theoretical and methodological sophistication, with greater
awareness of the complexities one encounters in moving across different levels of analysis. And,
most important, two groups of specialists have emerged and interacted closely with one another:
students of international relations, with a political science background, who are thoroughly
grounded in socialpsychological concepts and methods; and social psychologists (as well as
students of other disciplines outside of political science) who have systematically educated
themselves in the field of international relations.
(Kelman and Bloom 1973:263)
The result was that the systematic study of the beliefs and images of foreign policy makers grew
in popularity and significance during the 1960s and 1970s. The working assumption was that the
beliefs held by policy makers in general and the images that they formed relative to some
aspect of the environment affected the foreign policymaking process. Policy-maker images may
be partial or general. They may be subconscious or may be consciously stated. They may be
based on carefully thought-out assumptions about the world or they may flow from instinctive
perceptions and judgments. Regardless, all decision makers may be said to possess a set of
images and to be conditioned by them in their behavior on foreign policy (Brecher et al.
1969:867).
Much of this psychologically oriented research on foreign policy was influenced by the study of
attitudes and attitudinal change in psychology (see Calder and Ross 1973; Oskamp 1977). Most
of the work on attitudes and attitudinal change in psychology during this time was based upon
theories of cognitive consistency, especially cognitive dissonance and balance theory (see
Festinger 1957; Abelson et al. 1968; McGuire 1969; Oskamp 1977). The assumption behind
cognitive consistency is that individuals make sense of the world by relying on key attitudes (or
beliefs) and strive to maintain consistency between their attitudes (and beliefs). Under cognitive
consistency, individuals maintain coherent belief systems and attempt to avoid the acquisition of
information that is inconsistent or incompatible with their beliefs, especially their most central
beliefs. In other words, the argument is that individuals do not merely subscribe to random
collections of beliefs but rather they maintain coherent systems of beliefs which are internally
consistent (Bem 1970:13). It is interesting to note that psychologists, unlike political and social
scientists, were much more optimistic about the likelihood that people would change their beliefs
in response to discrepant information, which was often supported by laboratory (as opposed to
field research) studies which is why it was referred to as attitudinal change literature in
psychology (see Oskamp 1977; Milburn 1991).
The study of the impact of propaganda and communications on individuals reinforced the earlier
work on cognitive consistency (McGuire 1969; Sears and Whitney 1973; Oskamp 1977). The
literature on persuasive communications at the time indicated that most individuals are indifferent
to persuasive appeals, especially political propaganda, and when they are attuned they tend to be
surrounded by people and communications with which they sympathize. Even when a political
communicator breaks the barriers of low absolute exposure and de facto selectivity, he runs into
yet another and most formidable obstacle: resistance to change based on partisan evaluation of
information (Sears and Whitney 1973:8). Incoming information typically gets interpreted in
accordance with an individual's existing central beliefs and predispositions. Again, as with the
attitudinal change literature, the initial interest in the impact of propaganda and communications,
by social scientists and the government, was based on the assumption that people were highly
vulnerable to persuasive appeals, especially in light of the experience of Nazi Germany and the
rise of Adolf Hitler hence the nomenclature persuasive communications (see Sears and
Whitney 1973; Simpson 1994; Jones 1998).
The prevalence of cognitive consistency and the reinforcement tendency of most communications
found in the first generation of political psychological research provided the foundation for many
studies of foreign policy decision-making since the 1960s. This psychological literature and its
relevance for the study of foreign policy was brought together in Perception and Misperception
in International Politics by Robert Jervis (1976; an excellent earlier overview can be found in de
Rivera 1968). Jervis provided a significant service to the advancement of a cognitive approach to
foreign policy by providing a rich survey of the processes of perception for foreign policy
makers, including a discussion of how cognitive consistency affects decision makers, how
decision makers learn from history, and how beliefs change, and an analysis of common patterns
of misperception among policy makers. Not only did he illustrate the relevance of a cognitive
approach for foreign policy and international relations; he also used such a perspective to critique
the simplistic assumptions of both deterrence theory and a spiral model of state interaction to
better understand international conflict and USSoviet Cold War relations. As Jervis (1976:28)
concluded, It is often impossible to explain crucial decisions and policies without reference to
the decision makers' beliefs about the world and their images of others.
Second-Generation Scholarship
Beginning in the 1970s, psychology underwent what has been referred to as a cognitive
revolution, resulting in a renewed emphasis in the study of attitudes and a close examination of
how individuals process information. According to Simon (1985:295), Cognitive psychology, in
the past 30 years, has undergone a radical restructuring, from a severe Behaviorism to a
framework that views thinking as information processing. It should be pointed out that such a
perspective was much less revolutionary within social psychology, which has consistently leaned
on cognitive concepts, even when most psychology was behaviorist (Fiske and Taylor 1991:9:
see also Markus and Zajonc 1985; Eagly and Chaiken 1993).
The so-called cognitive revolution involved a different conception of the individual and his/her
interaction with the environment: away from a more passive agent who merely responds to
environmental stimuli to a conception of the individual as more likely to selectively respond to
and actively interpret his environment; away from a simple-minded individual who strives for
consistency toward an individual viewed as a thinking organism who is more likely to act as a
naive problem solver (or naive scientist), if even a poor problem solver, in order to make sense
of a complex environment involving great uncertainty (George 1980:56: see also Lau and Sears
1986c; Fiske and Taylor 1991:914; 2007). According to Fiske and Taylor (1991:12), the naive
scientist model assumes that people are fairly rational in distinguishing among various potential
causes, whereas political scientists, unlike social psychologists, have tended to be much quicker
in assuming the role of cognitive impediments to rational analysis.
This essay relies heavily on what are considered to be among the more significant works during
the first and second generations of scholarship (for an overview of the more contemporary
literature, see Hill 2003; Cottam et al. 2004; Breuning 2007; Fiske and Taylor 2007; Hudson
2007; Houghton 2008; Neack 2008).
Lau and Sears (1986c:359, 365) have noted that the inability of information-processing theories
to handle affect with as much sophistication as they offer for memory and perception is, however,
the biggest shortcoming of political and social cognition []. It takes us into a realm for which
cognitive psychology does not appear to be well suited. Fortunately, as Fiske and Taylor
(1991:13) point out, views of the social thinker are coming full cycle, back to appreciating the
importance of motivation. In fact, Fiske and Taylor (1991:13) argue in their overview of social
cognition, that as the cognitive miser viewpoint has matured, the importance of motivations and
emotions has again become evident. Having developed considerable sophistication about people's
cognitive processes, researchers are beginning to appreciate anew the interesting and important
influences of motivation on cognition. They believe that the emerging view of the social
perceiver, then, might best be termed the motivated tactician, a fully engaged thinker who has
multiple cognitive strategies available and chooses among them based on goals, motives, and
needs. Sometimes the motivated tactician chooses wisely, in the interests of adaptability and
accuracy, and sometimes the motivated tactician chooses defensively, in the interests of speed or
self-esteem. The motivated tactician perspective integrates the importance of motivation, but
with increased sophistication about cognitive structure and process.
The first generation of scholarship in political psychology and attitudinal research recognized,
and integrated, the affective side of attitudes beliefs involving likes and dislikes as well as
the importance of motivation in the study of hot cognition (see Markus and Zajonc 1985; Fiske
and Taylor 1991; 2007; Eagly and Chaiken 1993). That the existence of enduring commitments
highly intense beliefs was a function of the needs that the beliefs fulfill was initially
popularized by psychoanalytic theorists such as Freud (1930), Lasswell (1930), and Fromm
(1941), culminating in The Authoritarian Personality (Adorno et al. 1950), which argued that
beliefs were dependent on ego-defensive needs. Developmental psychologists and other scholars
such as Piaget (1932), Erikson (1950), and Maslow (1954) have emphasized that beliefs also
fulfill more positive needs of individuals. The classic work highlighting the motivational
foundation of political beliefs and behavior was Woodrow Wilson and Colonel House: A
Personality Study, by Alexander and Juliette George (1956), which distinguished between the
power-seeker and power-holder in their personality study. In Wilson's efforts to gain power in
order to overcome his low self-esteem from his childhood days, he conformed to the dominant
beliefs of individuals who could significantly influence his rise. However, once Wilson
successfully gained a position of power, he would demonstrate incredible rigidity and closedmindedness after he took a stand.
The attitudinal change literature revolved around the study of cognitive consistency, which
assumed that once inconsistency is perceived, the person is presumed to feel uncomfortable (a
negative drive state) and to be motivated to reduce the inconsistency. Hence, motivation and
cognition both were central to the consistency theories, for reducing the aversive drive state is a
pleasant relief, rewarding in itself (Fiske and Taylor 1991:11). Holsti (1967:13), for example,
integrated the role of personality in examining Dulles's image of the enemy, recognizing that
certain personality types can be more easily persuaded than others to change their attitudes.
Individuals also appear to differ in their tolerance for dissonance and tend to use different means
to re-establish stable attitudes. Nevertheless, as explained by Vamik Volkan (1985), the need to
have enemies and allies appears to be quite powerful among the human species.
Although much of the second generation of cognitive scholarship has tended to be more focused
on cold cognition, a number of works have demonstrated the importance of integrating a
motivational perspective along with a more cognitive approach to better understand human
behavior and interaction. Walker (1990; 1995) reviewed how the operational code originally had
a broad conceptualization that included the integral role of personality, which, he argues, needs to
be reintegrated in future research. Janis and Mann's (1977) study of Decision Making: A
Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice, and Commitment is a classic in this regard on the
pervasiveness of defensive avoidance among decision makers, as is Lebow's (1981) study of
how the management of brinkmanship crises is heavily affected by both cognitive and
motivational characteristics of policy makers. Rosati (1987; 1990) explained the stability and
change of Carter's, Brzezinski's, and Vance's images over time by examining each individual's
personality and the needs that their beliefs fulfilled through a functional approach to attitudinal
change that both attitude formation and change must be understood in terms of the needs they
serve and that as these motivational processes differ, so too will the conditions and techniques for
attitude change (Katz 1960;167: for more on a functional approach to attitudes which was
prominent during the first generation and its recent revival in social cognition, see Sarnoff and
Katz 1954; Smith et al. 1956; Smith 1958; Tetlock and Levi 1982; Fiske and Taylor 1991:5037;
Eagly and Chaiken 1993:47990; 1998). Finally, studies of crises have noted that stressful
situations are particularly likely to trigger psychic discomfort and motivated biases.
Hopefully, as Fiske and Taylor (2007; see also Crawford 2000) concluded in their review of the
literature, the future will likely see the integration of cognitive and motivational explanations.
Mel Laucella (2004) provides a particularly powerful example of the cognitivepsychodynamic
foundation (emphasizing upbringing and the developmental process inside and outside of
government) for understanding Secretary of State Cyrus Vance's Worldview. Likewise, Jerold
Post's (2005) edited volume has made some headway for better understanding Bill Clinton and
Saddam Hussein. Clearly, efforts to explore the cognitiveaffectivemotivational nexus of
motivated tacticians should be encouraged in order to more powerfully understand the human
mind and human behavior in foreign policy and world politics.
As stated above, countries (or international actors) do not act, people act. Hence, as Steinbruner
(1974:7) has stated, If an outcome of some consequence is being analyzed the outbreak of a
war [] etc. it is usually necessary to understand the interactions of a variety of men,
institutions, and basic social forces. The decision process then assumes unusual importance
because it is through such a process that many of the various causal factors exert their influence
on an outcome. But when do cognition and beliefs matter? The literature on decision-making
and foreign policy suggests in three basic ways (see Snyder et al. 1962; Allison 1971; Halperin
1974; Krasner 1978; Rosati 1981; 1984; Hermann et al. 1987; Stern and Verbeek 1998; Hermann
2001): (1) through a predominant leader or policy maker; (2) through shared images, or (3)
through collective decision-making.
First, most scholars who have systematically studied the foreign policy perceptions and beliefs of
political leaders from a cognitive perspective have tended to focus on one key leader, such as
Holsti's (1967) study of John Foster Dulles or Walker's (1977) study of Henry Kissinger. The
assumption or argument has been that a key leader or policy maker tends to dominate, or have
ultimate responsibility for, the policy-making process. For example, according to Morton
Halperin (1974:17), in Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy, the President stands at the
center of the foreign policy process in the United States. His role and influence over decisions are
qualitatively different from those of any other participant. In any foreign policy decision widely
believed at the time to be important, the President will almost always be the principal figure
determining the general direction of actions. At the same time, it must be recognized that
although the President is the principal decision maker on important foreign policy matters, he
does not act alone. He is surrounded by a large number of participants with whom he consults,
partly at his pleasure and partly by obligation. These other participants are arrayed around the
President at varying distances determined by the probability that they will be consulted by him.
Basically, this perspective assumes that the policy-making process tends to be relatively
centralized. This may be the case for a government (or nonstate actor) in general, or for a
particular situation. During a time of crisis, for example, the highest level of government
officials will make the decision(s) (Hermann 1969:416). Crises, in fact, tend to be times of high
stress when an individual's ability to cope with complex and ambiguous problems tends to erode
in favor of various psychological and cognitive predispositions (see Holsti 1971; 1990; Janis and
Mann 1977; Lebow 1981; Oneal 1988).
Second, sometimes the government, even the society, has been treated as a single actor such as
in the operational code of the Soviet politburo (Leites 1951; George 1969), White's (1968)
general discussion of mirror images during a time of war, or Heradstveit's (1979) analysis of the
ArabIsraeli conflict. Such an approach usually assumes the existence of shared images or the
development of a political consensus among policy makers. When participants share a set of
global images, these will decisively shape stands taken on particular issues, according to Morton
Halperin (1974:11). For example, from the onset of the cold war until quite recently, a majority
of American officials (as well as the American public) have held a set of widely shared images.
In addition, Janis (1982) has described how groupthink can occur in small groups that develop a
high esprit de corps, with the result being a high degree of individual conformity and group
consensus in thought and image. Another possibility is when an issue, usually less salient,
becomes localized or dominated by a bureaucratic organization with a strong, internal subculture
(Rosati 1981). In these ways, the resolution of a collective decision is handled by assuming that
the decision-making entity, whether a small bureau, a cabinet department, the executive branch,
or the entire government, acts as if it were a single person (Steinbruner 1974:37; see also Allison
1971).
Finally, foreign policy-making also involves multiple policy makers (from multiple
organizations) none of which may dominate who may not share similar images or arrive at
consensus. The literature on bureaucratic politics emphasizing competing interests, coalition
building, and bargaining highlights this perspective (Allison 1971; Allison and Halperin 1972;
Steinbruner 1974, esp. ch. 5). Such collective decision-making complicates the problem for a
psychologicalcognitive approach, for under such conditions it will not suffice to assume that
foreign policy decisions merely reflect the beliefs of any given leader, or even group of leaders.
Hence, research on belief systems must be embedded in a broader context (Holsti 1976:53).
Some of the more recent cognitive work has attempted to be more sophisticated in operating
within a collective decision-making context and examining the role of multiple policy makers,
such as Larson's (1985) study of Harriman, Truman, Byrnes, and Acheson within the Truman
administration, Rosati's (1987) study of Carter, Brzezinski, and Vance (and Muskie) within the
Carter administration, and Khong's (1992) study of Lyndon Johnson and his major advisers
during the Vietnam policy-making process. Such a perspective attempts to identify the
prevailing image, as well as competing images, within the collectivity (see Herrmann 1985;
Rosati 1987:1721). As suggested by Snyder and Diesing (1977:526), the operative values and
perceptions of the decision-making unit will depend on the balance of influence among its
constituent members []. If one or two persons are in complete control, the operational
interests of the state will reflect their perspectives (see De Rivera 1968; Bem 1970; Baron and
Byrne 1981; Vertzberger 1990; Sears et al. 1991; Eagly and Chaiken 1993; Levine and Resnick
1993; Fiske and Taylor 1991; 2007).
More efforts along these lines are necessary in order to advance our understanding of the role of
individual and collective images (see, e.g., Bonham and Shapiro 1982; Shapiro et al. 1988;
Schraeder 1994; Kaarbo 1996; 't Hart et al. 1997). The special issues on Whither the Study of
Bureaucratic Politics (Stern and Verbeek 1998) and Leaders, Groups, and Coalitions
(Hermann 2001) are particularly important steps in the right direction. Recent scholarship has
taken this research further, as in the work of Jean Garrison (1999; 2001; 2007) on policy framing
and the inner circle of advisers.
In sum, more studies need to identify the key individuals within the decision-making process,
examine their images, and the dynamics between them so as to better understand the making and
conduct of foreign policy. Yet, what George (1980:11) stated 30 years ago still applies: Despite
advances in relevant portions of theories of individual psychology, small group dynamics, and
organizational behavior, the linkage and synthesis of these three theories is still primitive. This
has been particularly the case with regard to the collective nature of decision-making, as opposed
to highlighting a predominant leader or a shared image orientation. One must determine the
distribution of influence and authority among the players, the roles that they play in the process,
and the intra-group dynamics.
and relevant to those involved and interested (including students, observers, and the public) in
foreign policy and world politics.
According to William Fox (1986:36), We are not simply tourists on this planet [] Our
collective job is not to whisper in the ear of today's dictator, but it is to help those in and out of
government with present or future influence on the policy process understand some of the
expected middle-run and long-run consequences of alternative policy choices. Hermann and
Hagan (1998) provide a recent illustration of the type of broader communication that could be
accomplished, especially from theorists to practitioners. Yet, as Joseph Nye (2009) has recently
argued, scholars tend to stay on the sidelines, while Walt (2005) points out the gap between
theory and policy will only be narrowed if the academic community puts greater emphasis on
policy-relevant theoretical work. The importance of broader communication and policy relevance
deserve serious consideration by students of political psychology and cognition.
over individuals and cultures than is the fantastically diverse content of those beliefs
(Steinbruner 1974:14). Yet, as Fiske and Taylor (1991:177) acknowledge, There are cultural
differences in schema use. For example, in more traditional and non-Western societies that tend
to be less individualistic, people do not make trait attributions in the same way as in Western
society (see Miller 1984; Markus and Kitayama 1991; Heradstveit and Bonham 1996). Therefore,
some variation in patterns of perception and cognitive dynamics across cultures (and subcultures)
occur, as one would expect (see Hudson 1997; Fiske et al. 1998; Sampson and Hudson 1999).
Clearly, such variations in cognitive patterns across cultures need to be addressed if we are to
better understand the dynamics of foreign policy throughout the world, especially beyond the US
and the West. But this does not alter the fundamental reality that the human mind craves certainty
and actively provides meaning to the environment that makes sense to the individual, in
accordance with the cognitive paradigm. The paradigmatic assumption, supported by
considerable empirical reality across cultures, is that human beings acquire cognitive structures of
beliefs which tend to remain stable through selective memory, perception, and causal inference.
Although some specific cognitive dynamics may vary across individuals and cultures, people
nevertheless share basic cognitive predispositions and habits: images are acquired that may be
more coherent or fragmented; common perceptual patterns are acquired involving the tendency to
categorize and stereotype, simplify causal inferences, and use historical analogies; and limited
learning occurs due to cognitive rigidity and closure. Such is the nature of human beings and the
workings of the human mind, which has a consequential impact on foreign policy and world
politics.
relations only imperfectly, it may well be worth the additional effort to build variables about
individual decision-making into them.
At the same time, students of political psychology and of cognition and foreign policy need to
broaden their study and move increasingly to a third and more powerful generation of
scholarship. The last 60 years of scholarship has been impressive, but this essay takes the view
that political psychologists and students of foreign policy should be more explicit in order to fully
capture the potential and richness of the interplay of cognition and foreign policy for better
understanding the dynamics of world politics: through synthesize and integration of different
cognitive theories; through integration of cognition and motivation; by greater sensitivity to
context and multilevel explanations; by integration of individual cognition and policy-maker
beliefs within a political, decision-making environment; by the need to communicate beyond the
scholarly community for greater policy relevance; and through greater sensitivity to cognition
across cultures. This is a challenging (and controversial) agenda, but one that will hopefully result
in much greater cross-fertilization between scholars of foreign policy and international relations.
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