International Symposium on

Sustainable Geosynthetics and Green Technology for Climate Change

7 to 8 December 2011 | Bangkok, Thailand

CUMULATIVE RAINFALL DEPARTURE APPROACH TO ESTIMATE

PROBABILITY OF LANDSLIDE AS IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Budhi Setiawan 1, Zamsyar Giendhra Fad2 and Jonathan Mulia3

Lecturer, Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, University of Sriwijaya, INDONESIA;
Tel: +62-711 360760; Fax: +62-711 580139; Email: budhi@wgtt.org
2
Geotechnical Engineering Research Group, Civil Engineering Department, University of Sriwijaya;
INDONESIA; Email: ghienz_g@yahoo.com
3
Student, Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, University of Sriwijaya, INDONESIA

Abstract
Climate change shows a role of rainfall that need to clarify as it considered as the cause of landslides.
Landslide is happen when rainfall mean above normal and occurred beyond infiltration capacity time due to
recharge of ground water table. This paper present Cumulative Rainfall Departure (CRD) method to estimate
ground water table recharge. The CRD method is based on the premise that water level fluctuations are caused
by rainfall events. Principles of methods currently in use are described and references from the South Sumatera
Province, Indonesia, that based on possibility, in terms of limitations, applicability of data, temporal and spatial
scales, they are monthly rainfall records, water levels, borehole abstractions and aquifer properties including
storativity and size of recharge area. By taking into account different ranges of rainfall, the CRD method will
give reasonable estimates of recharge rates. Then, the ground water table estimation developed to a model of
slope stabilization, that perform by a finite element analysis. The results shows landslides hazard probability
map for 30 years projection, by using constructed spatial data-sets and model of slope stability that has done
before.

due to rainfall depends on various

hydrometeorological and topographic factors,
soil characteristics, and depth of water.

INTRODUCTION
Background
Landslide is one of the issues of climate
change impact. Landslide was resulted from a
combination of interacting factor that include
topography, soil thickness, conductivity, and
strength properties, rainfall intensity and
duration, subsurface flow orientation, bedrock
fracture flow, and vegetation surcharge and
root strength (Montgomery and Dietrich,
1994).
Climate change indicated changes of rainfall
as landslide triggering factors. The mechanism
of the slope failure is as follow: the prolonged
rainfall infiltration reduces matric suction of
soil which in turn decreases the soil shear
strength, and subsequently triggers the slope
failure (Li et al., 2005).
Part of rainfall induce to the soil and water fill
the soil moisture deficiency and others part of
it is percolated down reaching the water table
of ground water table and known as the
recharge from rainfall to the aquifer. Recharge

Purpose
Landslide commonlly are usually trigerred by
some role of rainfalls, several attempts have
been made to integrate the extreme rainfall
characteristics into the slope stability analysis.
The purpose of this study are to estimate,
rainfall-induced then impact to ground water
table recharge as one of spatial map input for
the landslide hazard of South Sumatera.
Ground water table recharge estimating using
Cummulative Rainfall Departure method
(Bredenkamp, 1995).
The recharge distributed into spatial data, as an
input of landslide hazard that using Computerbased tool namely Geographical Information
System (GIS), one of the main advantages of
the use of this technology is the possibility of
improving hazard occurrence models, by
evaluating their results and adjusting the input
variables.

International Symposium on
Sustainable Geosynthetics and Green Technology for Climate Change
7 to 8 December 2011 | Bangkok, Thailand

av indicating the average of rainfall

intensity. While, k is the permeability
coefficient, which is the results from the
borehole abstractions .
It is assumed that CRD has a linear
relationship with a monthly water level
change.

Theory
The CRD (Cumulative Rainfall Departure),
which depends on the water balance principle
was used in this study to estimate the
groundwater recharge in South Sumatera
region. The water balance assumed that the
change in the storage is input minus output
result, expressed by :

hi = (r/s) CRDi
Input Output = S

Where r is percentage of the CRD which

results in recharge from rainfall, s is aquifer
storativity.

Where S is the change in the storage. Input is

the sum of all input components into the
system in a period time, output is the sum of
all output components out of the system over
the same period.
The input components can be rainfall, river
inflow to the storage, or irrigation return flow,
while the output components can be
groundwater pumping, surface water intake, or
the evapotranspiration.

Case Study
Administrative Boundary
South Sumatera Province is part of Sumatera
Island, Indonesia, with area about 91.806,36
Km2. Geographically, South Sumatera
Province lies betweem 1- 4 south latitude
and 102 -106 East longitude. The population
in this area is about 7 million people, by
density population about 65.7/km2. The study
take place in the landslide area in South
Sumatera. There are 34 landslide area in South
Sumatera, which are spread across the
highland region, at Southern and Western
region of south sumatera, especially Lahat,
Pagaralam, Empat Lawang, Muara Enim, and
OKU Selatan district (Fig. 1).

Bredenkamp formula
Bredenkamp (1995) defined CRD sas
follows :
=
( = , , )

(3)

(1)

(2)

Where, R is the rainfall in the storage, with

subscript I indicating the i-th month and

(source : Setiawan, et. all. 2011))

Figure 1. South Sumatera Province administrative boundary

International Symposium on
Sustainable Geosynthetics and Green Technology for Climate Change
7 to 8 December 2011 | Bangkok, Thailand

Slope
South Sumatra Province has varies topography
includes coastal areas, low land, high land, and
mountainous area. The east coast of the
province mostly dominated by swamp and
brackish area which influenced by the tide.
The province stretched from east west
direction between 400 1.700 meters above
mean sea level (msl). The areas with height
around 400 500 above msl are covering 37%
of total area. The west side of the province are
mostly hilly and mountainous area in which is
a part of the Barisan Mountainous Area with
average height between 900 1.200 above
msl. There are several mountain peaks along
this area; i.e. Seminun peak (1.964 msl),
Dempo mountain peak (3.159 msl), Patah
Mountain (1.107 msl), and Bungkuk Mountain
(2.125 msl).

(source : Setiawan, et. all. 2011)

Figure 3. Geological map of South Sumatera

METHODOLOGY
CRD Method
Cumulative Rainfall Departure (CRD) method
was used to estimate the net groundwater
recharge from rainfall. The data required by
the CRD method depends on less uncertain
data than other methods are: monthly rainfall
records, measurements of groundwater levels,
aquifer storativity, and abstraction records.
The water level series is simulated using a
spreadsheet
microsoft excel computer
program. Simulated water levels are compared
with rainfall in figure 3, where dh (crd) refers
to water levels calculated by CRD method
(Bredenkamp et al. , 1995). There are two
main components in CRD, hydrological factor
is rainfall and, geological factor are hydraulic
conductivity.

(source : Setiawan, et. all. 2011)

Figure 2. South Sumatera topography

Rainfall to geological
Rainfall data are consist of two source, they
are from observation, and simulation data
(IPCC, http://www.ipcc.ch/). Observation data
collecting from rain-gauge that spread in South
Sumatera Province for 30 years (1980-2011),
meanwhile simulation data collected from
IPCC, for baseline (1980-2011) and projection
(2012-2030). Both of the baseline data, then
compared to give a based study for IPCC data
as license to used as a projection climatic drive
data for landslide analysis. Rainfall then
generated using for projection condition for
year 2011 - 2030 (Hadi, et all 2011), into grid
of rainfall.
While the geological components, based on
geological Map (BAPPEDA of South
Sumatera province), table below show borelog
abstraction of South Sumatera, that use as
geological factor to estimate ground water
table recharge using cummulative rainfal

Slope is a very important parameter in any

landslide hazard zonation mapping. If the
slope is higher then there is a chance of
occurrence of landslide. Contour maps have
been used for the preparation of slope map for
landslide hazard map input.
Geology of the Area
The occurrence of landslide is mainly due to
the presence of huge thickness of loose soils.
When mixed with rainwater, it triggers the
landslide. The South Sumatera litology are
dominated by breccias, sediment stone,
alluvium, sandstone and dominated by
mudstone and swamp area at northeast region.

International Symposium on
Sustainable Geosynthetics and Green Technology for Climate Change
7 to 8 December 2011 | Bangkok, Thailand

distribution (CRD).
Table 1. borelog abstraction
Soil

Cohession

Friction Angle

Unit Weight

2,6

29,013

26,22

0,217

0,000147

sandy clay

28,819

26,16

0,031

0,000202

clayey sand

19,88

26,02

0,062

0,000104

20

45,767

26,12

0,0014

Sand

clay

Aquifer Storativity (s)

(Source : Setiawan, et. all. 2011)

Ground water table recharge estimating, based

on baseline rainfall data 1980-2011 and
projection condition 2011-2030. The water
level series is simulated using the computer
program Microsoft Office EXCEL.

Rainfall are divided into grid (IPCC,

http://www.ipcc.ch/), then it overlayed to
geological map for instance, to match the
rainfall and geological. The plot of rainfall
grid to geological map showed in figure 4,
while geological map showed in figure 3.
Geological is one of cummulative rainfall
deprture (CRD) components, then engineer
give an expert judgement to every litology
based on 4 soil type, which is based include in
what class, sand, clay, sandy clay or clayey
sand.

Estimating ground water table

One of Simulated water levels with the rainfall
is shown in Figure 5 for baseline condition and
projection condition using formula (1) and (2).
From the figure below, seen that rainfall on
last month will significantly affected to the
recharge on next rainy month. The fluctuation
are varied, there are some peak of recharge,
the highest Ground water table recharge are
show in year 1994 (180th-month) for about 54
mm in baseline condition, and in year 2025
(545th-month) for about 94 mm in projection
condition. While, it show a constant trend for
others. Ground water table recharge consider
as a landslide triggering factor. There are
about 43 CRD that resulted based on rainfall
grid
and
geological
match
point.

Figure 4. Plot of rainfall grid to geological

International Symposium on
Sustainable Geosynthetics and Green Technology for Climate Change
7 to 8 December 2011 | Bangkok, Thailand

500

200

450

150

400

100

350
300

50

250

200

-50

150

-100

100

-150

-200
1
19
37
55
73
91
109
127
145
163
181
199
217
235
253
271
289
307
325
343
361
379
397
415
433
451
469
487
505
523
541
559
577
595

50

Rainfall (mm)

dh (mm)

Figure 5. one of CRD (long: 103,75 ; lat: -1.75) from 1980 2030

Ground water as climatic drive map

Ground water table recharge distributed into
spatial map using Geographical Information
Systems (GIS), advances with technology and
the mathematical/statistical tools for modeling
and simulation, have led to the growing

application of quantitative techniques in many

areas of the earth sciences. Figure 6 below
show ground water table recharge spatial map
from january to december as climatic drive for
landslide hazard prone.

(January)

(February)

(March)

(April)

International Symposium on
Sustainable Geosynthetics and Green Technology for Climate Change
7 to 8 December 2011 | Bangkok, Thailand

(May)

(June)

(July)

(August)

(September)

(October)

(November)

(December)

Figure 6. Ground water table recharge map, from January to December

RESULT AND DISCUSSION

In order to generate the landslide prone areas a

model has been developed in a Geographical
Information Systems (GIS) environment. Data
in the form of thematic layers are landslide,
slope, geology and ground water table map as

climatic drive factor, were input into GIS

calculated using quantitative operation to
obtain Hazard map. Figure below show flow
chart for landslide hazard.

International Symposium on
Sustainable Geosynthetics and Green Technology for
fo Climate Change
7 to 8 December 2011
201 | Bangkok, Thailand

Figure 7. Framework to determine landslide hazard

Landslide map
Landslide map existing with 34 different
landslide area as the first priority map with the
bigest value, landslide index divided into four
class, they are low, moderate, high, and very
high, based on safety factor, meanwhile
climatic drive map are generated
ed from ground
water table recharge.

Slope map
Slope is a very important parameter in any
landslide hazard zonation mapping. Steeper
slope become the most trigger of landslide.
slope map is divided into 6 categories as
follows, from flat 00 - 30 , gently sloping 30 70, sloping 70 - 90, steep 90 - 170, very steep 170
- 360, and extremely steep 00 - 900.

Geology map
The occurrence of landslide is mainly due to
the presence of huge thickness of loose soils.
When mixed with rainwater, it triggers the
landslide. This litology divided into five
f
class
based on the weakness of geological
judgement from physically and structure itself,
they are, very high erodable, high erodable,
moderate erodable, poor erodable, very poor
edorable.

cumulative rainfall departure (CRD) map, to

show which area with the ground water table
recharging.
Statistical Analysis
A projection landslide hazard zonation
zonatio map
has also been proposed based on historical
landslide data, by using Geographical
Information System (GIS) process, These
layers include landslide data, slope, lithology,
and CRD as climatic drive factor. In our
framework, different weightings can be
b
assigned to each layer, and unrealistic
landslide hazard on lowland is eliminated by
proposing a filter function. The landslide
hazard model could be used for the prediction
of future landslides by providing a projection
scenario rainfall distribution that
th given.
Figure below show landslide hazard with
different scenario of climatic drive map, for

Climatic drive map

Landslide commonlly are usually trigerred by
prolonged yet intense rainfalls, several
attempts have been made to integrate the
extreme rainfall characteristics into the slope
stability analysis. Rainfall then generated for
projection condition for year 2011 - 2030
(Hadi, et all 2011), into grid of rainfall.
Climatic drive are show by using of

International Symposium on
Sustainable Geosynthetics and Green Technology for Climate Change
7 to 8 December 2011 | Bangkok, Thailand

month of february and june as ground water

table recharge higher month than august and

september.

(February)

(June)

(August)

(September)

Figure 8. Lanslide hazard map for February, June, August and September

There are differences among landslide hazard

on february, june, august and september. It
show that february and june have the higher
hazard, while august and september are lower.
Ground water table recharge as climatic drive

map, plays an important role for landslide

hazard. Table 2 below shows hazard level for
each month on february, june, august and
september.

Table 2. hazard level on february, june, august and september

2
February
June
August
September
area (m )
very low

2.883.271

2.883.271

345.780.000

376.920.000

31.347.013.200

31.347.013.200

31.143.240.000

31.106.520.000

139.207.932

139.207.932

high

25.769.235

25.769.235

26.370.000

26.820.000

very high

18.200.649

18.200.649

18.090.000

17.910.000

low
moderate

The highest landslide probability occured in

june, with the probability range from 0 0,64
and then divided into five class of hazard, they
are very low, low, moderate, high, and very
high.
The map is identified the the level of hazard,
the area of middle land and highland
dominated by low level of hazard, while
lowland with no hazard level. Low level

predicted in Pagaralam, Empat Lawang, Lahat,

OKU Selatan, almost a half area of Muara
Enim, Ogan Komering, OKU Timur, Musi
Rawas, a part of Musi Banyuasin and
Prabumulih, with total area 31.357.400.000
m2, as seen in figure 3. Meanwhile, for
moderate, high, and very high hazard, spotted
in several district as the detail seen in figure 4.

International Symposium on
Sustainable Geosynthetics and Green Technology for Climate Change
7 to 8 December 2011 | Bangkok, Thailand

(b)

(a)

(d)

(c)

Figure 4. Landslide hazard map of june for district (a) Muara Enim, (b) OKU Selatan, (c) Empat Lawang, (d)
Lahat

been made to integrate the extreme rainfall

characteristics into the slope stability analysis.
Cummulative rainfall departure (CRD) are
able to estimating ground water table recharge
as trigger factor of landslide. by using
Geographical Information System (GIS)
process, These layers include landslide data,
slope, lithology, and ground water table
recharge as climatic drive factor the landslide
hazard compiled. The model could be used for
the prediction of landslide projection condition
by providing a projection scenario rainfall
distribution, with ground water table recharge
spatial map for each month.

By providing projection scenario of rainfall,

the level of hazard become higher and larger,
for highland and middle land area the level rise
at least to low level, and for moderate level, as
seen in figure 4, occured in OKU Selatan and
several area of Lahat, with total area
132.390.000 m2. High level occured in Empat
Lawang and several area of Lahat, with total
area 26.370.000 m2. And for very high level,
occured in Muara Enim, Empat Lawang, and
Lahat, with total area 18.090.000 m2.
Some landslide existing doesnt show any
signs of projection reactivation, but some of
them are become reactive with a different level
higher and lower. Some area show landslide
hazard, although there is no landslide occured
before at baseline condition, because the slope,
geological and CRD factor assigned the level
of hazard.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This paper was written based on the climate

risk assessment conducted for preparing of
Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment by
Ministry of Environment (KLH) AusAID,
GIZ and Government of South Sumatera. The
authors acknowledge and greatly appreciate

CONCLUSSION

Landslide commonlly are usually trigerred by

some role of rainfalls, several attempts have

International Symposium on
Sustainable Geosynthetics and Green Technology for Climate Change
7 to 8 December 2011 | Bangkok, Thailand

Climate Change on The Risk of Landslide in

Indonesia and The Proposed Adaptation
Activities.
Proceeding
International
Symposium, Exhibition, and Short Course on
Geotechnical and Geosynthetics Engineering:
Challenges and Opportunities in Climate
Change 7 to 9 December 2010 Bangkok,
ThailandXu, Y. & Tonder, G. J. V. Estimation
of recharge using a revised CRD method.
Water SA, Vol. 27, pp. 341-343. 2001
SOPHOCLEOUS MA. Combining the soil water balance
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WU JR, ZHANG T and YANG J (1996) Analysis of
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143-160, 1996
Xu, Y. & Tonder, G. J. V. Estimation of recharge using a
revised CRD method. Water SA, Vol. 27, pp.
341-343. 2001

the KLH-AusAID and GIZ for granting the

Authors the opportunity to involve in this very
important study.
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