Challenge Problem Set:

For any questions: Alp Eren AKYÜZ – alperen.akyuz@boun.edu.tr

Q1) – On average, in a football game a quarterback scores two touchdowns. What is the probability of
a quarterback scoring no touchdowns in the first and third quarters and scoring two on the
second and two onf the last quarter (four touchdowns in a match)? Hint: There are four
quarters in a football game.

Ans1) – Think of the problem as the following:

 The time interval of interest is a quarter. Then if two touchdowns are scored in a game by a
quarterback, the average touchdowns per quarter is   0.5 .
 What we want is summarized in the following table:
Quarter 1 2 3 4
Touchdown 0 2 0 2
 Now it is easier to solve

P  X  0 P  X  2 P  X  0 P  X  2
e
0.5 
 0.5  e
0.5 
 0.5  e
0.5
 0.5 e
0.5 
 0.5
0 2 0 2


0! 2! 0! 2!
e
2 
 0.5
4


4

Q2) – If you draw cards from a deck, you expect to have 4/52 aces. Does this statement makes sense?
Since number of aces is measured in discrete units is it possible to have a fraction of aces?

Ans2) – The definition of expected value gives us the expected outcome in many trials. This is
actually a proven theorem called as “the law of large numbers”: Check the plotted values in the
following link to see how it works: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

Q3) – If two events have a joint probability, then can we calculate a binomial probability for them?

Ans3) – No, binomial distribution is used to calculate the outcome of repetitive trials of a single event.

Q4) – A car dealer sells cars with two characteristics: convertibility and having GPS. The ratio of
convertible cars is 0.4. The ratio of cars with GPS is 0.3. There is a 0.25 probability that a car
with both convertible top and GPS has its battery dead in less than 28 days. Other cars just do
fine and their batteries never die. You won a competition and the first prize is having two
random cars from the car dealer. What are the random variables? How are they distributed?
Can you calculate the probability of having at least one of your cars’ battery dead in less than
four weeks?
Ans4) – The random variables are having convertibility, having a GPS and the condition of your
battery. Their distributions are:
Convertible 0.4 GPS 0.4 DeadBattery 0.25
, ,
NotConvertible 0.6 NoGPS 0.6 Battery 0.75

No we cannot calculate it, we do not know the joint probability of having both a convertible top and a
GPS.

Q5) – Answer question 4 by using the following table:

GPS NoGPS
Convertible 0.2 0.2
NotConvertible 0.1 0.5

Ans5) – Now we have the joint probability we need: P  Convertible,GPS  0.2 .

The probability of having at least one cars means P  X  1  P  X  2  .

P  X  1   0.2  0.25   0.2  0.75   0.8  0.0475

  
One car: battery dead One car with battery

P  X  2   P  X  1 P  X  1   0.2   0.25  0.0025

2 2

P  X  1  P  X  2   0.05

Are you watching closely? There is a binomial distribution at work here. Can you find it?

Q6) – “On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.”says the narrator in
Chuck Palahniuk’s famous book, Fight Club. Are there any theoretical backgrounds for this quote in
probability theory? Depending on your previous answer, explain if there is a chance for anyone to live
forever?

Ans6) – Exponential distribution can be used to model the arrival of death, so as time passes by the
chances of a person dying increases. If the deaths of people is indeed distributed with an exponential
distribution, there is a small chance of living forever. Unfortunately it is not.

Q7) – In a small town after a bombing raid, peacekeepers are carrying the wounded to the shelter. The
population of the town is known to be 1001. The doctor of the town has noted that the number of
injured was 995, then ran away. The peacekeepers has only one truck, and they can carry only five
people at one time. What is the probability of carrying none of the wounded at the first time?
Ans7) – 995 injured, 1000 alive (the doctor is gone). In this question there are only three numerical
values; but it is a hypergeometric distribution question. The variables are:
 Population: N=1000
  Healthy: A=5
 Capacity of the truck: n=5
 Number of healthy asked: X=5

 5  995 
  
 5  0 
Now just apply the formula:
1000 
 
 5 
Keep in mind: looks can be deceiving, a question may slip you information in hidden ways.

Q8) – In a library you see a shelf where different copies of “the Art of War” stand. Half of them are
the copies of the one written by Sun Tzu and the others are the copies of the one written by
Machiavelli. You randomly take three of them without replacing. What is the probability of having
two of the Sun Tzu copies? Solve this question by applying the binomial distribution formula and
comment on your results.
Ans8) – n=10, X=2 and p=0.5, now apply the formula:

10  9
P  X  2      0.5   0.5  
2 1

2 25

Our result is wrong and therefore invalid, because we cannot apply the binomial distribution formula
when we sample from a finite sample without replacement. Instead, we should use the hypergeometric
distribution formula:
 Get rid of p,n and use N=10, A=5, n=5, X=2:

 5  5 
  
2 3
P  X  2     
10 
 
5

Q9) – In 1499, Michelangelo started sculpting one of his highly finished works, known as Pietà and
finished it in 1500. It is still considered as sculpting at its zenith. If a renessaince artist’s hand trembles
ten times each year, what is the probability of creating such a sculpture without having any trembles?
Ans9) – Having zero trembles is found by applying the Poisson distribution.

e 20 200
P  X  0   e 20
0!