IHS Aerospace, Defence & Security

Analysis: Chinas Air

Ambitions
November 2013
While gaps still remain in key areas, Chinas overall
development and production of military aircraft is
advancing rapidly. IHS examines the developments,
ambitions and outlook.

over the last five years. Since 2011 seven new aircraft
have made their maiden flights, including two fifthgeneration combat aircraft designs.

Introduction
Over the last 15 years Chinas domestic aerospace
industry has made rapid progress in developing its
capabilities to such an extent that it can now increasingly
meet the requirements of the Peoples Liberation Army
(PLA) in aircraft design and development.
While there are still some key areas of deficiency, both in
terms of military and industrial capabilities, it is clear that
efforts are being made to address these remaining gaps
in order to create a domestic military aerospace sector
that is truly self-reliant.
A number of high-profile events have made it difficult to
ignore the development of Chinese aerospace capabilities
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Chinas aircraft production (Source: IHS Janes DS Forecast)

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IHS Analysis: Chinas Air Ambitions

The PLAs aviation arms have also achieved a rapid pace

of inventory modernisation and enhancement, due in no
small part to the existence of nine known military aircraft
production programmes in China that produce aircraft for
the Chinese armed forces. In 2012 up to 148 aircraft are
thought to have been produced for the army, navy, and
air force.

two to other fifth-generation combat aircraft. In addition,

the eventual production-standard aircraft may well differ
in some respects from the prototypes now in flight test as
new technologies are refined and developed.
Given the relatively limited maturity of Chinese technology
in a number of areas, the kind of integrated capabilities
possessed by these aircraft is unlikely to be of a similar
standard to Russian and Western systems. For example,
the first generation of Chinese-developed electronically
scanned array radars has yet to enter service.

Fifth-generation ambitions
The two highest-profile projects to come to light since
2011 are the Chengdu Aircraft Industrial Corporation
(CAC) J-20 and Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC) J31 fifth-generation combat aircraft. While the emergence
of the J-20 in 2011 had been widely anticipated following
tacit acknowledgement of the programme by PLA
officials, the emergence of a second design just 21
months later was a clear demonstration of the breadth of
developmental work under way in China. At present there
have been no indications of intent to acquire the J-31.
However, the J-20 now looks set to become a future
mainstay of the PLA Air Forces (PLAAFs) twin-engine
fighter fleet.

Perhaps the best indication of the nascent capabilities in

these areas is the reported reluctance of Russia to supply
Beijing with Sukhois 4++-generation Su-35 for fear that
the aircrafts systems will be reverse-engineered by
China.
Even if access to technology is not behind Beijings
interest in the Su-35, its purchase at a time when so
many indigenous fighter development and production
programmes are ongoing would suggest the Russian
aircraft is superior in some respects.
Strategic lift

Both designs incorporate features that are clearly aimed

at radar cross-section (RCS) minimisation. However,
judging the two aircrafts capabilities remains extremely
challenging as systems and sensors are now more crucial
to military aircraft performance than at any time in the
past. Until more is known about the technology within the
J-20 and J-31 it is impossible to accurately compare the

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Arguably a more important milestone for both industry

and the PLA, however, was the first flight of the Xian
Aircraft Industries Group Y-20 strategic transport aircraft
that took place in January 2013. The Y-20 represents the
first example of a truly indigenous large aircraft, albeit
with Russian-made Aviadvigatel D-30KP2 engines and

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IHS Analysis: Chinas Air Ambitions

apparent design input from Ukraines Antonov, and

demonstrates a further expansion of Chinese industrial
capabilities. The emergence of the type also provides a
potential opportunity to develop a genuine air-to-air
refuelling platform in the future, thereby addressing two of
the key weaknesses of the PLAs current aviation
inventory.

a further development of the ZDK-03 AEW aircraft

supplied to the Pakistan Air Force in 2011. With the
Ilyushin Il-76-based KJ-2000 and Y-8-based KJ-200
already in service with the PLAAF and the PLA Navy
(PLAN), China appears to be intent on enhancing an
airborne surveillance fleet that is already second in size
only to the United States.

Meanwhile, the Shaanxi Aircraft Industries Company Y-9

programme a comprehensive modernisation of the
companys Y-8 tactical transport aircraft featuring a
redesigned wing, fully pressurised fuselage, and new sixbladed propellers provides further evidence of the
increased focus on airlift. Despite initial delays as a result
of design changes, the first production aircraft in PLAAF
colours was seen in the latter part of 2012 and the type is
now expected to begin re-equipping the air forces
transport regiments.

Brand new trainers

The modernisation of the PLAAF and PLANs advanced
jet trainer fleets has now also begun in earnest with the
Guizhou Aviation Industry Company JL-9 and Hongdu
Aviation Industry Group JL-10 (formerly known by its
manufacturers designation of L-15) having both entered
series production. On 1 July the initial JL-10 production
aircraft for the PLAAF conducted its maiden flight. With
250 of the aircrafts Ukrainian Motor Sich AL222-24F
afterburning turbofan engines placed under contract in
2011, it seems highly likely that at least 100 aircraft will
enter service as replacements for the ageing CAC JJ-7
inventory. At present the PLAN appears to be focused on
the less technologically advanced JL-9 design, with state
media revealing the existence of a carrier-training variant
in 2011.

The parallel development of a maritime patrol and antisubmarine warfare version of the aircraft featuring a
large chin-mounted surface-search radar, electro-optical
turret, ordnance bay, and magnetic anomaly detector
boom also appears to have made rapid progress over
the last three years, with the aircraft pictured in flight in
late 2012.

The rotary-wing sector has seen more mixed progress.

Local industry has yet to develop a suitable medium- or
heavy-lift helicopter design despite pressing requirements
for both from the PLA. The development of the Hafei
Aviation Industry Company Z-9 (based on the Eurocopter

This was followed in November 2013 by images

suggesting a new airborne early warning (AEW) variant of
the Y-8/9 was also under development. This featured a
top-mounted rotating dome radar, possibly representing

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AS 365 Dauphin) to fill a range of roles such as troop

transport (Z-9B), anti-submarine warfare (Z-9C), antisurface warfare (Z-9D), and close air support (Z-9WZ) has
been in part due to the lack of a viable, indigenously
produced alternative to meet these requirements.

with Eurocopter and an unnamed design resembling the

Sikorsky S-70 (UH-60) Black Hawk often referred to as
the Z-20 offer the most likely short-term prospects for
success.
Combat aircraft developments

The most notable recent successes from a PLA

perspective have come in the form of the Changhe
Aircraft Industries Group Z-10 and Hafei Aviation Industry
Company Z-19: two indigenously produced attack
helicopters. The Z-10, which is now known to have been
designed in its initial form by Russias Kamov, has been
identified operating with at least five army aviation
regiments and provided the PLA with its first true attack
helicopter. Meanwhile, recent photographs suggest the Z19, a further extensive re-development of the Z-9 with a
tandom cockpit, may now also have entered service.

While the spectrum of activity in aircraft design and

manufacturing has broadened over the last three years,
combat aircraft remain the short-term focus of the
aerospace industry. Of the nine production programmes
known to be active in China in 2013, four Xian Aircraft
Industries Groups H-6K and JH-7A, the J-10A, and the
J-11B are producing aircraft for PLA fighter and bomber
divisions. Similarly, five of the identified developmental
efforts that are under way the J-10B, J-15, SAC J-16, J20, and J-31 are multirole fighter designs.
The J-10 programme remains arguably the most
important Chinese fighter project of the past two
decades, representing a breakthrough moment for the
domestic aerospace industry when it entered service in
2003. While deliveries of the J-10A have proceeded at
pace over the intervening 10 years, production is now
expected to draw to a close following completion of the
development of the enhanced J-10B.

Nevertheless, the scale of imports of Russian Mil Mi17/171 helicopters over the last 10 years provides an
indication of the comparative lack of progress that has
been made by the Chinese aerospace industry in the
rotary-wing sector. Since the Sichuan earthquake in 2008,
where PLA units sent to assist in rescue operations were
delayed by a lack of tactical airlift, import orders have
accelerated in an apparently pragmatic recognition that
local industry would not be in a position to address this
capability shortfall soon enough.

There has been no official confirmation of PLAAF units

being equipped with this new variant, although imagery
from China suggests series production is now well under
way, with the aircraft expected to enter service in the next
few months after a lengthy flight programme. Ultimately,

In the future a militarised development of the civil Hafei

Aviation Industry Company Z-15 (EC175) co-developed

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IHS Analysis: Chinas Air Ambitions

more than 600 J-10s are expected to enter service with

the PLAAF as the remaining CAC J-7-equipped regiments
are recapitalised.

techniques are maturing alongside system and aircraft

design capabilities.
While in the past the approach of incremental
developments to existing aircraft designs was necessary
due to the lack of capability in platform design, this may
no longer be the key motivation. With production shifting
from foreign to indigenously designed aircraft, this
technique is in many ways well suited to the pace of
progress being made in parallel areas such as engine and
system development. The breadth and tempo of projects
currently under way in China necessitates such a flexible
approach and has also provided a key advantage in
rapidly building the competency of domestic design
bureaus and production facilities.
Simultaneously, SACs previously troubled J-11B project
now appears to be making steady progress. Following
several years of setbacks largely a result of
development issues with the intended indigenous Liming
Aero-Engine Manufacturing Corporation (LMAC) WS-10A
Taihang powerplant at least four regiments are now
equipped with the type. While the aircraft is essentially an
indigenised development of the license-built Sukhoi Su27SK, the design incorporates substantial improvements,
including a reduced RCS, a strengthened airframe with
the use of composite materials, an improved fire-control
radar, a new flight-control system, and a glass cockpit.
The PLAN also began taking deliveries of the J-11B in
mid-2010.

Chinas fighter fleet has undergone a generational shift (Source: IHS Janes
DS Forecast)

The J-10B variant provides an excellent example of the

incremental approach to the development of combat
aircraft that has been a standard approach for Chinese
manufacturers since the 1970s. Production of the initial
variant has continued at pace alongside the development
of the J-10B. The aircraft appears to feature a scanned
array radar the first fitted to a Chinese fighter a
modified diverterless engine intake, and an enhanced
range of sensors and electronic warfare capabilities.
Chinese officials have confirmed an increased use of
composite materials and the creation of a pulsation
production line, demonstrating that manufacturing

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IHS Analysis: Chinas Air Ambitions

One significant consequence of the proliferation of

indigenous combat aircraft projects is that the PLAs
fighter fleet has experienced a rapid pace of
modernisation over the past decade. While a large
number of regiments continue to be equipped with
obsolete J-7 and SAC J-8 designs, the increasingly
reliable flow of aircraft from the J-10 and J-11 production
lines has allowed for significant qualitative advances. In
2007 around one in four of the PLAAFs combat aircraft
fleet could be considered to possess modern, fourthgeneration capabilities, whereas by late 2013 just six
years later close to half of the fighter fleet is thought to
have reached this standard.

The USAF, meanwhile, operates around 570 aerial

refuelling aircraft compared with just 10 possessed by the
PLAAF. If training aircraft are excluded, then 42% of the
USAFs inventory is dedicated to support tasks such as
airlift, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR),
and aerial refuelling. The PLAAFs own support aircraft
constitute 26% of its inventory.

Nevertheless, modernisation to date has been largely

limited to combat aircraft fleets, with the development
and production of combat aircraft prioritised over support
aircraft such as airlifters and aerial refuelling platforms. As
a result the PLAAFs inventory remains largely focused on
the provision of capabilities suited to localised operations
and possesses only limited power projection capabilities.

US and Chinese transport aircraft inventories (Source: IHS Janes Military &
Security Assessments Intelligence Centre)

Strategic transformation

It is therefore perhaps no surprise that one of the Chinese

Ministry of National Defenses (MNDs) stated priorities for
the PLAAF is to accelerate its transition from territorial air
defence to both offensive and defensive operations, and
increase its capabilities for carrying out reconnaissance
and early warning ... and strategic projection, in an effort
to build itself into a modernised strategic air force. As a
result, while the PLAAF is expected to continue to

A comparative analysis of army and air force aviation in

the United States and China shows that mobility remains
a key capability weakness for the PLA. China operates
one transport helicopter for every seven US platforms;
one C-130-sized tactical transport for every 13 in US
service; and one strategic transport for every 14 operated
by the US Air Force (USAF).

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IHS Analysis: Chinas Air Ambitions

Importing capability

modernise its combat aircraft fleet over the coming

decade, it is likely to be the support elements of the
inventory that see a quantitative expansion as Beijing
looks to create a more balanced air force capability better
suited to supporting the expanding ambitions of the PLA
and the Chinese government.

The governments growing emphasis on indigenous

sources for its defence equipment has certainly placed
pressure on the domestic industry to develop the
technologies and platforms now required to fill the more
expansive strategic goals of the PLA. Nevertheless, the
Chinese aerospace sector remains unable to meet all PLA
requirements, with the clearest indications of the more
persistent gaps in industrial capability being provided by
the contracts signed over recent years for foreignmanufactured aircraft and systems.

The entry into service of the Y-9 which is expected to

maintain a steady rate of production over the next 10
years and the Y-20 in the longer term will provide
Chinese airlift capabilities with a considerable boost and
allow the PLAAF to modernise and expand its air
transport fleet.

While imports of Russian Sukhoi combat aircraft

concluded in 2005 and local production of the licenceproduced J-11A (Su-27SK) was curtailed in 2004, a
number of contracts have been finalised since that time in
areas where local capacity is less robust.

Although progress is likely to be relatively slow compared

with the transformation seen in the combat aircraft fleet,
particularly with regard to strategic lift, the domestic
aerospace sector now appears to be much closer to
being in a position to fill these increasingly important PLA
requirements. Furthermore, the Y-9 and Y-20 are likely to
form the basis of a number of ISR and aerial refuelling
platforms in the future.

In total, contracts for 138 aircraft and 1,423 engines have

been finalised with foreign suppliers over the past decade
and there have been few signs of a discernible downturn
in the pace or size of orders.

Air-to-air refuelling is perhaps the most significant gap in

capabilities at present; the air force currently has just 10
H-6U modified bombers offering very little in the way of
capacity and minimal hope that this capability can be
expanded significantly in the short term. Until this
situation is rectified the PLAs ability to conduct and
sustain operations at even modest distances beyond its
national territory will remain severely constrained.

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Of more than 1,400 engines, 707 ordered have been

placed under contract since the start of 2011. With
production rates suggesting that around 100 engines will
be required annually to support fighter production alone
over the next 10 years, reports stating that follow-on
orders are already under negotiation seem plausible.

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IHS Analysis: Chinas Air Ambitions

Furthermore, a number of key aviation programmes

remain reliant on the continued supply of foreign-made
powerplants. The L-15 advanced jet trainer is currently
powered by the Ukrainian-made AL-222-24F, the J-10
and J-10B by the Russian AL-31FN, the H-6K and Y-20
by the D-30KP2, and the CAC JF-17 a key Chinese
export programme by the RD-93.

with the D-30KP2. While previous attempts at engine

development suggest any such maiden flight would
significantly pre-date series production of the powerplant,
this would nevertheless represent progress in an area
short on success.
At present the WS-10A remains the only indigenously
developed engine in series production, with a number of
other projects, notably the WS-13 the intended
replacement for the RD-93 delayed. There have been
numerous indications that the domestic aero-engine
industry has begun work on a number of powerplants for
the next generation of Chinese combat aircraft. However,
it seems likely that progress will remain slow relative to
wider aerospace manufacturing capabilities. The entry
into series production of the J-20 may well be dictated
more by the ability of AVIC to develop and manufacture a
suitable and reliable powerplant than by the development
of the airframe and systems of the aircraft.

Investing in engines
While Beijing has been pragmatic in its decision to
continue importing large numbers of engines from
abroad, government and industry continue to invest in
closing this key capability gap. In April 2011 AVIC
announced plans to commit more than CNY10 billion
(USD1.53 billion) to aero-engine R&D over the following
five years: a commitment that represented AVICs
greatest independent investment during the period. The
company also announced in 2012 that it would task
LMAC one of its major aero-engine subsidiaries with
the creation and implementation of a technology roadmap
aimed at accelerating progress in this area.

Building robust capabilities in this area will also be crucial

in expanding Chinese exports in the military aerospace
market, with the lack of control over this key element of
the supply chain acting as an impediment to
independence. While Beijing has been keen to promote
the JF-17 to potential foreign customers in recent years,
the aircrafts Russian-made RD-93 engine ostensibly
provides Moscow with a veto over potential sales of the
aircraft, which in many markets is a competitor for
Russian offerings. This awkward dynamic has arguably
been a key reason behind the continued sales of the

There have, however, been indications of progress. The

acceleration of J-11B deliveries is largely a result of the
WS-10A turbofan being delivered in meaningful numbers.
Furthermore, in early 2013 Chinese state media, citing
officials at the PLAAF Command Institute, revealed that
the Y-20 would also soon fly with an indigenous engine
thought to be the so-called WS-20 high-bypass turbofan
which would offer improved performance compared

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IHS Analysis: Chinas Air Ambitions

increasingly technologically obsolete F-7, with final

deliveries of the most recent F-7BGI variant completed
during 2013.

composites, and to a lesser extent engine

development and manufacture, these capabilities remain
far from a fully mature state at this stage.

While engine imports continue at a rapid pace, orders for

foreign-made aircraft have slowed noticeably since 2007
and are now limited to filling specific PLA requirements
that cannot, as yet, be met effectively by local industry.
Of the 138 aircraft ordered from foreign manufacturers in
the last 10 years, 80% have been Russian-made Mil Mi17 Hip transport helicopter variants purchased to
address the lack of an indigenous medium helicopter
design. An assembly line for the type opened in China in
2008 to provide a further 20 helicopters a year.

Furthermore, in a number of these areas, in terms of the

capabilities of both industry and the PLA, gaps remain.
The challenge for China in the next decade will not be
developing new indigenous combat aircraft, but in closing
the gaps that still exist.
Nevertheless, given the political will and vast investments
being made in the aerospace sector, it certainly appears
to be a matter of when, rather than if, this state of full
maturity will be achieved.

However, fixed-wing imports have slowed significantly

following the collapse of Chinas order for 30 Il-76TD
Candid strategic transport and eight Il-78M Midas
tanker aircraft due to complications relating to the
aircrafts production facilities. A contract for 10
refurbished Il-76MD airlifters announced in late 2012
suggests that, had a viable production line been available,
significant orders for the type would likely have been
placed throughout the past decade. However, China now
seems likely to assess progress in the development of its
own Y-20 strategic transport before considering the
purchase of additional Russian-made aircraft.

This analysis is abridged. The full report was developed

using programme data and forecasts from IHS Janes DS
Forecast and IHS Janes Defence Procurement and
military inventories information from IHS Janes Military &
Security Assessments Intelligence Centre.

Conclusion
While China has made great strides in aircraft
development, aircraft systems, production techniques,
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IHS Analysis: Chinas Air Ambitions

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