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Decision Making
PROBLEMS
1.
Williams Products
a. Break-even quantity
Q Fixed costs Unit price Unit variable costs
$60,000 $18 $6
5,000 units
The graphic approach is shown on the following illustration, using Break-Even Analysis
Solver of OM Explorer.
2
Decision Making
SUPPLEMENT A
Therefore, the strategy of using a price of $12.50 will result in a greater contribution to
profits.
d. Williams must also consider how this product fits within her existing product line from
the perspective of required technologies and distribution channels. Other marketing,
operations, and financial criteria must also be considered.
2.
Jennings Company
a. Break-even quantity
Q Fixed costs Unit price Unit variable costs
$80, 000 $22 $18
Two
lines
are:
3
Decision Making
SUPPLEMENT A
Profit pQ F cQ
$2217,500 $80,000 $15.3017,500
$37,250
Therefore the cost reduction leads to higher profits in this example.
c. Initial unit profit is $22 $18 $4.00
Alternative 1: $22 $18 $4.00
The percentage change in profit margin is zero.
Alternative 2: $22 $15.30 $6.70
The percentage change is $6.70 $4 $4 67.5 percent increase.
3.
4.
Brook Trout
Q F p c
p F Q c
$10, 600 800 $6.70
$19.95
5.
Gabriel Manufacturing
a. Total cost Fixed cost Variable cost
TC F cQ
TC first process $300, 00 $600Q
6.
The difference in total cost $840, 000 $780, 000 $60, 000
News clipping service
F F $400,000 $1,300,000
Q m a
227,848
c
c
$2.
25
$6.
20
a
m
a.
clippings
4
PART 1
5
Decision Making
SUPPLEMENT A
742,857
p
c
$4.00
$2.25
c.
clippings
7.
Hahn Manufacturing
a. Total cost of buying 750 units from the supplier:
TCb $1,500 unit 750 units $1,125,000
Total cost of making 750 units in-house:
TCm $1,100 unit $300 unit 750 units $40,000 $1,090,000
Therefore Hahn should make the components in-house, saving $35,000 per year.
b. At the break-even quantity, the total cost of the two alternatives will be equal:
$1,500Q $40,000 $1,400Q
100Q $40,000
Q 400 units
c. If the decision is to buy, Hahn may get a quantity discount from the supplier (we
would be ordering 750 per year instead of the current 150 per year). Just a $50 per unit
quantity discount would make the buy alternative more attractive than the make
alternative. Because the component is a key item, Hahn should check the reliability of
the supplier and of their own processes. Reliability may argue for the make decision.
8.
Current Profit= Price Variable cost Annual Volume Annual Fixed Costs
$10.00 $5.00 30, 000 $140, 000
$10, 000
6
PART 1
9.
This problem is a thinly disguised portrayal of an actual situation faced by Tri-State G&T
Association, Inc. of Thornton, Colorado, and which is common to many other REA
Utilities. However the costs, prices, and demands stated in the problem are fictional.
F
Q
pc
a.
F
$82,500, 000
c
$25 $107.5 per MWH
Q
1, 000, 000
b. Profit (or loss) Total Revenue Total Cost
1,000,000 95%$107.5 $82,500,000 1,000,000 95%$25
p
$102,125,000 $106,250,000
Loss $4,125,000
In order to break even, the price would have to be raised to
$4,125, 000
Problem 9
Problem 11
120
100
Total Costs
80
60
40
Total Revenue
20
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Volume, ( Q , in thousands of MWH)
10.
1.25
7
Decision Making
11.
SUPPLEMENT A
Tri-County G&T continued. This problem builds on problems 9 and 10 to show that TriCountys REA customers also benefit from the bargain arrangement with Boulder.
Contribution from sales to Boulder Q p c
150,000$75 $25
$7,500,000
Remaining fixed costs to cover $82,500,000 $7,500,000 $75,000,000
F
Q
pc
F
$75,000,000
c
$25 $100 per MWH
Q
1,000,000
Note that selling power to Boulder at a reduced price also reduces the price to the REA
customers. However, it may be difficult to persuade REAs that selling electricity to city
slickers below cost also benefits rural customers.
p
12.
Forsite Company
a. Say that each criterion (arbitrarily) receives 20 points:
Product
Calculation
Total Score
8
PART 1
13.
40
7
10
8
10
5
40
6
B
= 650
403 10 4 10 7 40 9
C
= 590
40
6
10
7
10
6
40
2
D
= 450
409 10 7 105 40 7
E
= 760
0
.
7
10
40
10
10
40
700
b. The threshold is
c. Because Product A and Product E score greater than 700, they should be considered for
introduction.
14.
Accel-Express Inc.
a. The weighted score for Location A:
10 8 10 7 10 4 20 7 20 4 30 7 620
The weighted score for Location B:
10 5 10 7 10 7 20 4 20 8 30 6 610
Location A must be chosen.
b. If equal weights are placed on the criteria, the two locations will be tied because the
sum of the scores is 37 for both A and B.
15.
Build-Rite Construction
a. Maximin CriterionBest Decision: Subcontract ... Payoff: $100,000
b. Maximax CriterionBest Decision: Hire ... Payoff: $625,000
c. Laplace CriterionBest Decision: Subcontract ... Weighted Payoff: $221,667
Alternative
Weighted Payoff
$250,
000
9
Decision Making
16.
SUPPLEMENT A
Decision Tree
(0.5)
(0.5)
$15
$30
2 $20.60
(0.4)
(0.3)
(0.3)
$20
$18
$24
(0.2)
(0.6)
(0.4)
$22.50
Alternative 1 $22.50
1
Alternative 2 $24.00
$25.00 $24
(0.5)
(0.3)
$25
$20
$30
$26
$20
Work from right to left. Here we begin with Decision Node 2, although Decision Node 3
would be an equally good starting point. The key concept is that we cannot begin analysis
of Decision Node 1 until we know the expected payoffs for Decision Nodes 2 and 3.
Decision Node 2
1. Its first alternative (in the upper right portion of the tree) leads to an event node with an
expected payoff of $22.50 [or 0.5(15) + 0.5(30)].
2. Its second alternative leading downward reaches an event node with an expected payoff
of $20.60 [or 0.4(20) + 0.3(18)+ 0.3(24)].
3. Thus the expected payoff for decision node 2 is $22.50, because the first alternative has
the better expected payoff. Prune the second alternative.
Decision Node 3
4. Its second alternative leads to an event node has an expected payoff of $24 [or 0.6(20)
+ 0.4(30)].
5. Thus the payoff for decision node 3 is $25, because the first alternative ($25) is better
than the expected payoff for the second alternative ($24). Prune the second alternative.
Decision Node 1
6. The second alternative leads to an event node has an expected payoff of $24 [or 0.2(25)
+ 0.5(26)+ 0.3(20)].
7. Thus the expected payoff for decision node 1 is $24, because the second alternative
($24) is better than the expected payoff for the second alternative ($22.50). Prune the
first alternative.
Thus the best initial choice (Decision 1) is to select the lower branch, Alternative 2. If the
top branch of the subsequent event occurs (a 20% probability), then Decision 3 must be
made. Select its first alternative.
Conclusion: Select the lower branch, with an expected payoff of $24.
10
PART 1
17.
18.
Medium
$102,250
Small
$78,250
$220,000
$125,000
($60,000)
Expand lrg
fac
2 Do nothing
$145,000
$150,000
$140,000
($25,000)
Expand lrg $125,000
fac
High demand (0.35)
3 Expand med $60,000
ac
Do nothing $75,000
Average demand (0.40) 4 Expand med $60,000
Do nothing $75,000
Low demand (0.25)
$18,000
High demand (0.35)
Average demand (0.40)
Low demand (0.25)
11
Decision Making
SUPPLEMENT A
12
PART 1
Thus the best choice is to build a large plant because it has a higher expected payoff
($14.1 million). Prune the small plant alternative.
Conclusion: Build the large facility, with an expected payoff of $14.1 million.
4.
20.
Offshore Chemicals
The decision tree would have just one decision node with two branches (build and do
not build). The build alternative is followed by an event node: Facility works (0.40)
and Facility fails (0.60).
Decision Node 1
1. The build alternative has an expected payoff of $2,000,000 [or 0.4 ($20,000,000) +
0.6 ($10,000,000)]
2. The do not build has a payoff of $0.
3. Thus the best choice, based on the expected value criterion, is to build. Prune the Do
not build alternative.
Conclusion: Build the facility, with an expected payoff of $2 million. Of course, political or
environmental considerations might also influence the final decision.