Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Page 1
Equity Research
North America
United States of America
William Pecoriello
Javier Escalante
+1 (1)212 761 7965
Javier.Escalante@morganstanley.com
STOCK RATING
EQUAL-WEIGHT
Price (July 30, 2004)
$52.15
Price Target
$55
52-Week Range
$56.08-43.26
Stock ratings are relative to the analysts industry (or
industry teams) coverage universe.
GICS SECTOR
US Strategist Weight
S&P 500 Weight
WHATS CHANGED
2005 EPS estimate
2006 EPS estimate
Analysis of Sales/Earnings
CONSUMER STAPLES
12.4%
10.9%
$2.55 to $2.58
$2.80 to 2.85
2003
2004
2005e
2006e
2.04
2.04
43,373
21.9
7.7
13.0
1.7
2.33
2.31
51,318
22.5
8.3
13.8
1.6
2.58
2.56
54,211
20.5
7.6
12.9
1.7
2.85
2.82
56,919
18.6
7.0
12.0
1.7
Market Cap ($ m)
Enterprise Value ($ m)
Debt/Cap (06/03)(%)
Return on Equity (06/03)(%)
Shares Outstanding (m)
144,803
35.8
41.1
2,776.7
Q'trly
2004e
EPS estmate
2005e
curr
prior
2006e
curr
prior
Q1
0.63
Q2
0.65
Q3
0.55
Q4
0.50
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates; Please see explanation of Morgan Stanley ModelWare
initiative later in this report
Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures starting on page 10.
Page 2
Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures starting on page 10.
Page 3
What we liked?
Our F05 EPS estimate excludes the $0.02 gain from the
Sunny D divestiture and therefore we are raising 05
earning growth rate from 10% to 11.6% to account for the
above and favorable macros in emerging markets.
What happened?
Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures starting on page 10.
Page 4
The efficiency of the ad spending to support Wellas topline might come down a bit during the integration. The
fact that P&G is backing Wella with higher reinvestment is
without a doubt a strategic positive, as it ensures that
Wellas top-line does not weaken at a time that LOreal is
aggressively investing. It is possible however that this
spending might not have the bang it would, given the
execution difficulties the integration would conceivably
generate.
We are factoring the success of price increases in US
tissue, pet food and coffee but only partial increases are
possible. P&G is passing through higher commodity prices
in tissue and pet food, while it is seeking better price
realization in coffee as well. We are now including for the
first time in our forecast the successful increase in US tissue,
as up to now we have remained skeptical given Wal-Marts
agenda with White Cloud and Georgia-Pacifics with
Brawny. We expect the competitive dynamics in US paper
to remain fluid, as the promotional environment is
improving in tissue but appears to be worsening in diapers.
In pet food, Nestle is restaging Purina and P&G might need
Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures starting on page 10.
Page 5
Exhibit 1
PG Earnings Analysis
YAGO
FCST
Revenue, by segment:
Fabric + Home Care
Baby + Family Care
Beauty- Proforma
Health Care
Snacks + Beverages
Corporate
Total Revenue
$3,265
2,508
3,075
1,391
779
(98)
$10,920
$3,507
2,618
4,471
1,577
860
(160)
$12,873
COGS
Gross Profit
Marketing, R&D, Admin + Other
EBIT
Operating margin
7.6%
5,600
5,320
3,470
1,850.0
16.9%
Tax
Tax Rate
YAGO
FCST
$3,487
2,731
4,412
1,636
855
(159)
$12,962
$222
223
1,337
245
76
(61)
$2,042
($20)
113
(59)
59
(5)
1
$89
18.7%
11.1%
0.8%
(879)
1,163
(874)
289
63
151
(2)
149
6,479
6,483
4,344
2,139
15.5%
16.5%
(148) bps
(44) bps
(136)
24
(166)
56
(175.0)
16.0
(39)
(8)
(9)
(40)
$751
271
679
158
83
(204)
$1,738
$821
284
779
186
95
(285)
$1,880
$782
350
792
222
115
(281)
$1,980
$31
79
113
64
32
(77)
$242
($39)
66
13
36
20
4
$100
11.3%
8.2%
13.9%
2.7%
5.8%
522
577
606
(84)
(29)
30.0%
30.7%
30.6%
(57) bps
9 bps
499.0
165.0
466.0
110.0
55.0
(79.0)
$1,216
31
$1,185
534.2
192.8
501.6
130.3
41.7
(97.7)
$1,303
31
$1,272
523.0
201.0
532.0
138.0
77.0
(97.0)
1,374.0
33
$1,341
24.0
36.0
66.0
28.0
22.0
(18.0)
$158
(2)
$156
(11.2)
8.2
30.4
7.7
35.3
0.7
$71
(2)
$69
12.3%
7.3%
13.2%
0.8%
5.8%
Interest Expense
Interest & other income, net
Pre-tax Income by segment:
Fabric + Home Care
Baby + Family Care
Beauty- Proforma
Health Care
Snacks + Beverages
Corporate
Pre-Tax Income
17.9%
6,542
6,332
4,342
1,990
B/(W)
ACTUAL
2
$1,214
2
$1,301
0
$1,374
2
$160
2
$73
12.3%
7.2%
13.2%
0.9%
6.0%
$0.46
$0.43
$0.50
$0.49
$0.52
$0.50
$0.06
$0.07
$0.02
$0.01
13.2%
14.0%
15.2%
2.1%
1.3%
(33)
(26)
16
128
2,589
2,799
2,540
2,645
2,556
2,773
Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures starting on page 10.
Page 6
Exhibit 2
2005E
2006E
2007E
2008E
2009E
$13,868
10,718
17,122
6,991
3,482
(774)
$51,407
11%
25,076
26,331
$14,260
11,387
18,893
7,655
2,930
(805)
$54,320
$14,831
11,728
19,932
8,574
2,989
(829)
$57,224
$15,350
11,963
21,028
9,431
3,034
(854)
$59,951
$15,810
12,202
22,184
10,280
3,079
(880)
$62,676
$16,205
12,324
23,405
11,205
3,079
(906)
$65,312
1Q04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
2004
1Q05E
2Q05E
3Q05E
4Q05E
$3,393
$3,407
$3,581
$3,487
2,607
2,673
2,707
2,731
3,753
4,492
4,465
4,412
1,728
1,908
1,719
1,636
896
931
800
855
(182)
(190)
(243)
(159)
$12,195 $13,221 $13,029 $12,962
$13,868
10,718
17,122
6,991
3,482
(774)
$51,407
$3,580
2,796
4,766
1,866
789
(189)
$13,608
$3,560
2,840
4,717
2,032
806
(198)
$13,757
$3,581
2,863
4,733
1,908
649
(253)
$13,481
$3,539
2,888
4,677
1,849
687
(165)
$13,474
COGS
Gross Profit
Gross margin -- core
51.2%
16,504
9,827.0
Operating margin
51.2%
17,681
11,630
4.8 %
29,244
30,707
51.2%
18,270
12,437
4.5 %
30,573
32,103
51.2%
18,841
13,262
4%
31,532
33,780
51.7%
19,657
14,123
12.9%
5,879
6,316
51.8%
3,673
2,643
20.2%
6,324
6,897
52.2%
4,155
2,742
22.3%
6,394
6,635
50.9%
4,332
2,303
18.7%
6,479
6,483
50.0%
4,344
2,139
18.5%
25,076
26,331
51.2%
16,504
9,827
11.6%
6,532
7,076
52.0%
4,148
2,928
4.1%
6,535
7,223
52.5%
4,241
2,982
3.5%
6,606
6,875
51.0%
4,296
2,580
4.0%
6,804
6,670
49.5%
4,395
2,275
19.8%
20.3%
20.7%
21.2%
21.6%
21.7%
20.7%
17.7%
16.5%
19.1%
21.5%
21.7%
19.1%
16.9%
14%
(629)
152
9.5%
(887)
205
8.0%
(889)
167
6.9%
(908)
171
6.6%
(957)
175
6%
(925)
177
10 bps
(90) bps
(151) bps
(44) bps
(72) bps
(16) bps
93 bps
146 bps
38 bps
(141)
40
(149)
29
(164)
67
(175)
16
(629)
152
(222)
51
(222)
51
(222)
51
(222)
51
$3,287
1,623
3,662
1,448
557
(1,227)
$9,350
$3,388
1,847
4,157
1,618
479
(1,407)
$10,083
$3,589
1,799
4,505
1,866
481
(1,333)
$10,908
$3,738
1,859
4,879
2,118
491
(1,386)
$11,700
$3,874
1,927
5,281
2,371
499
(1,471)
$12,480
$3,995
1,977
5,712
2,640
530
(1,478)
$13,375
$832
472
913
406
162
(243)
$2,542
$843
444
1,047
500
188
(400)
$2,622
$830
357
910
320
92
(303)
$2,206
$782
350
792
222
115
(281)
$1,980
$3,287
1,623
3,662
1,448
557
(1,227)
$9,350
$895
531
1,049
429
149
(295)
$2,758
$890
511
1,132
549
175
(445)
$2,811
$859
429
1,041
382
68
(370)
$2,409
$743
375
935
259
87
(295)
$2,105
7%
11.1%
13.5%
13.5%
13.9%
781
804
678
606
13 %
Tax
2,869
Tax Rate
51.3%
17,079
10,764
5.3 %
27,914
29,311
19.1%
Interest Expense
Interest & other income, net
Pre-tax Income by segment:
Fabric + Home Care
Baby + Family Care
Beauty- Proforma
Health Care
Snacks + Beverages
Corporate
Pre-Tax Income
5.7 %
26,476
27,843
30.7%
$6,481
131
$6,350
0
$6,481
7.8 %
3,075
30.5%
$7,007
124
$6,883
8
$6,999
8.2 %
3,327
30.5%
$7,581
124
$7,457
8
$7,573
7.3 %
3,569
30.5%
$8,132
124
$8,008
8
$8,124
6.7 %
3,806
30.5%
$8,673
124
$8,549
8
$8,665
4,079
30.5%
$9,296
124
$9,172
8
$9,288
30.7%
$1,761
33
$1,728
0
$1,761
30.7%
$1,818
32
$1,786
0
$1,818
30.7%
$1,528
33
$1,495
0
$1,528
30.6%
$1,374
33
$1,341
0
$1,374
12.9%
2,869
30.7%
$6,481
131
$6,350
0
$6,481
8.5%
7.2%
9.2%
6.3%
841
857
735
642
30.5%
1,916
31
$1,885
2
$1,914
30.5%
1,954
31
$1,923
2
$1,952
30.5%
1,674
31
$1,643
2
$1,672
30.5%
1,463
31
$1,432
2
$1,461
13 %
8%
8%
7%
7%
7%
11.8%
14.4%
14.3%
13.2%
13.4%
8.7%
7.4%
9.5%
6.3%
$2.46
$2.33
$2.75
$2.58
$3.06
$2.85
$3.38
$3.14
$3.74
$3.46
$4.17
$3.84
$0.67
$0.63
$0.69
$0.65
$0.58
$0.55
$0.52
$0.50
$2.46
$2.33
$0.75
$0.70
$0.77
$0.72
$0.66
$0.62
$0.58
$0.54
14.2%
2,581
2,790
10.7%
2,504
2,722
10.5%
2,439
2,656
10.2%
2,368
2,585
10.2%
2,288
2,506
11.0%
2,202
2,419
12.5%
2,593
2,798
14.0%
2,591
2,801
14.6%
2,583
2,790
16.3%
2,556
2,773
14.2%
2,581
2,790
Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures starting on page 10.
11.1%
2,531
2,748
10.8%
2,512
2,730
12.7%
2,495
2,713
8.0%
2,479
2,697
Page 7
Exhibit 3
2004
2005E
2006E
2007E
2008E
2009E
$6,481
$7,007
$7,581
$8,132
$8,673
$9,296
1,733
1,803
1,885
1,990
2,116
2,261
434
714
$9,362
296
(637)
$8,470
132
216
$9,814
186
208
$10,515
59
206
$11,054
119
197
$11,873
Capital Expenditures
Asset sales or retirements (PP&E)
Sale/(Acquisition) of Businesses
Change in Marketable securities
Net Cash from Investing Activities
(2,024)
230
(7,476)
(121)
(9,391)
(2,173)
(2,289)
(2,398)
(2,507)
(2,612)
0
(2,173)
0
(2,289)
0
(2,398)
0
(2,507)
0
(2,612)
(4,070)
555
1,963
(1,188)
4,911
(2,539)
($368)
(4,000)
0
0
1,569
(4,400)
0
0
(5)
(5,500)
0
0
576
(6,875)
0
0
1,606
(8,250)
0
0
2,331
(2,816)
($5,247)
(2,929)
($7,333)
(3,038)
($7,962)
(3,138)
($8,407)
(3,227)
($9,145)
(46)
(443)
5,912
5,469
0
1,049
5,469
6,518
0
192
6,518
6,710
0
156
6,710
6,866
0
140
6,866
7,006
0
116
7,006
7,122
Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures starting on page 10.
Page 8
Exhibit 4
2004
2005E
2006E
2007E
2008E
2009E
$5,892
4,062
4,400
2,761
17,115
14,108
23,900
1,925
$57,048
$6,941
3,358
4,715
2,118
17,133
14,665
23,712
1,925
$57,435
$7,133
3,459
4,741
2,226
17,560
15,257
23,524
1,925
$58,266
$7,289
3,542
4,887
2,182
17,900
15,853
23,336
1,925
$59,015
$7,429
3,617
5,026
2,281
18,353
16,433
23,148
1,925
$59,859
$7,545
3,680
5,097
2,377
18,699
16,972
22,960
1,925
$60,556
$11,306
2,554
13,860
20,841
5,069
$39,770
$11,126
1,999
13,125
20,841
1,569
1,562
2,869
$39,966
$11,313
2,179
13,492
22,410
(5)
1,625
3,023
$40,545
$11,525
2,337
13,863
22,405
576
1,689
3,167
$41,700
$11,742
2,493
14,235
22,982
1,606
1,751
3,311
$43,883
$11,912
2,672
14,584
24,587
2,331
1,808
3,450
$46,761
17,278
$57,048
17,469
$57,435
17,721
$58,266
17,315
$59,015
15,976
$59,859
13,795
$60,556
Balance Sheet
Assets:
Total Cash + Equivalents
Net Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Other Current Assets, incl. Def. Taxes
Total Current Assets
Property, Plant + Equipment
Net Goodwill and Intangibles
Other Assets
Total Assets
Liabilities + Shareholders' Equity:
Accounts Payable and Accrued Liabilities
Income Taxes
Total Current Liabilities
Old Total Debt
New Debt/(Debt Paydown)
Deferred Income Taxes
Other Long-Term Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity:
Total Shareholders' Equity
Total Liabilities + Shareholders' Equity
Source: Company accounts, Morgan Stanley Research
Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures starting on page 10.
Page 9
Modelware is a proprietary framework for financial analysis created by Morgan Stanley Research. This new framework rests
on the principles of comparability, transparency, and flexibility, and aims to provide investors with better tools to view the
anticipated performance of an enterprise. The result of an 18-month global effort, Modelware harmonizes the underlying data
and calculations in Morgan Stanley models with a broad set of consistently defined financial metrics. Our analysts have
populated the database with over 2.5 million data points, based on an extensive taxonomy of more than 3,500 unique metrics
and more than 400 Morgan Stanley calculations. The Modelware framework will also have the flexibility to allow analysts and
investors to add or change data elements, even quickly customize their own analytical approach.
What makes the Modelware architecture distinctive lies in the separation of data from calculations. Its transparency will permit
users to see every component of every calculation, to choose elements or recombine them as they wish without laborious
adjustments or recalculations. When choices must be made in defining standard or industry-specific measures, Modelware
defaults to economic logic, rather than favoring one accounting rule over another. This discipline facilitates comparability
across sectors and regions. Underlying the Modelware data is a new set of systems that check the internal consistency of
forecast data in each of our analysts models.
Modelware EPS illustrates the approach taken. It represents Modelware net income divided by average fully diluted shares
outstanding. Modelware net income sums net operating profit after tax (NOPAT), net financial income or expense (NFE), and
other income or expense. Modelware adjusts reported net income to improve comparability across companies, sectors, and
regions. These adjustments include the following: We exclude goodwill amortization and items deemed by analysts to be
one-time events; we capitalize operating leases where their use is significant (e.g., in transportation and retail); we convert
inventory to FIFO accounting when LIFO costing is used; and we include unrealized gains and losses on available-for-sale
securities in earnings (financial services companies only). For more information on these adjustments and others, as well as
additional background, please see Introducing Modelware: A Road Map for Investors, by Trevor Harris and team, August 2,
2004.
Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures starting on page 10.
Page 10
Analyst Certification
The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are
accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for
expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: William Pecoriello.
Page 11
Stock Ratings
Different securities firms use a variety of rating terms as well as different rating systems to describe their recommendations. For example,
Morgan Stanley uses a relative rating system including terms such as Overweight, Equal-weight or Underweight (see definitions below). A
rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not equivalent to our rating system. Investors should carefully read the definitions of
all ratings used in each research report. In addition, since the research report contains more complete information concerning the analysts
views, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or
research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual
circumstances (such as the investors existing holdings) and other considerations.
Global Stock Ratings Distribution
(as of July 31, 2004)
Coverage Universe
Stock Rating Category
Count
% of
Total
% of
Total IBC
% of Rating
Category
Overweight/Buy
638
36%
271
41%
42%
Equal-weight/Hold
800
45%
297
45%
37%
Underweight/Sell
349
20%
94
14%
27%
Total
1,787
662
Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. For disclosure purposes (in accordance with NASD and NYSE requirements), we note that
Overweight, our most positive stock rating, most closely corresponds to a buy recommendation; Equal-weight and Underweight most closely correspond to neutral and
sell recommendations, respectively. However, Overweight, Equal-weight, and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, neutral, and sell but represent recommended
relative weightings (see definitions below). An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing
holdings) and other considerations. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley or an affiliate received investment banking compensation in
the last 12 months.
Overweight (O). The stocks total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analysts industry (or industry
teams) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
Equal-weight (E). The stocks total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analysts industry (or
industry teams) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
Underweight (U). The stocks total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analysts industry (or industry
teams) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
More volatile (V). We estimate that this stock has more than a 25% chance of a price move (up or down) of more than 25% in
a month, based on a quantitative assessment of historical data, or in the analysts view, it is likely to become materially more
volatile over the next 1-12 months compared with the past three years. Stocks with less than one year of trading history are
automatically rated as more volatile (unless otherwise noted). We note that securities that we do not currently consider "more
volatile" can still perform in that manner.
Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in this report is 12 to 18 months. Ratings prior to March
18, 2002: SB=Strong Buy; OP=Outperform; N=Neutral; UP=Underperform. For definitions, please go to
www.morganstanley.com/companycharts.
Analyst Industry Views
Attractive (A). The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be
attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark named on the cover of this report.
In-Line (I). The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be in
line with the relevant broad market benchmark named on the cover of this report.
Cautious (C). The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months with
caution vs. the relevant broad market benchmark named on the cover of this report.
Stock price charts and rating histories for companies discussed in this report are also available at
www.morganstanley.com/companycharts. You may also request this information by writing to Morgan Stanley at 1585
Broadway, 14th Floor (Attention: Research Disclosures), New York, NY, 10036 USA.
Page 12
Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History (See Rating Definitions)
Page 13
Page 14
Page 15
Page 16
Morgan Stanley research is disseminated and available primarily electronically, and, in some cases, in printed form.
Additional information on recommended securities is available on request.
The Americas
Europe
Japan
Asia/Pacific
1585 Broadway
New York, NY 10036-8293
United States
Tel: +1 (1)212 761 4000
Ticker
AVP.N
CL.N
G.N
Rating
as of
O
07/06/04
O
10/31/03
U
09/11/03
Price
at 08/02/04
$43.23
$53.34
$39.12
Rating
Price
Company
Ticker
as of
at 08/02/04
Kimberly-Clark
KMB.N
U
01/06/04
$64.98
Procter & Gamble
PG.N
E
09/11/03
$53.34
Stock ratings are subject to change. Please see latest research for each company.