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Consolidation underway
By Sanjay R. Bhatia
The domestic markets consolidated amidst a range bound trend on the benchmark indices. However, stock specific
activity continued.
The FIIs remained net buyers in the cash segment but were net sellers in the derivatives segment and were seen
hedging their long positions. The domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained net sellers during this week and were
seen booking profits at higher levels. The breadth of the market remained neutral amidst lower volumes. The US
markets continued to touch historic highs on the back of good earnings. However, Chinese data continued to paint a
weak picture. The Chinese economy lost further momentum in October 2014 as factory growth dipped and investment
growth hit a near 13-year low. This weak data weighed on crude oil prices, which continued to soften and touched a 4year low.
On the domestic front, the WPI eased further to 1.77% in October from 2.38% in September 2014. Moreover, the CPI
declined and the September 2014 IIP data displayed positive growth.
Technically, the prevailing positive technical conditions helped the markets witness buying support at lower levels.
The KST and RSI are both placed above their respective averages on the daily and weekly charts. Further, the MACD is
placed above its average on the daily charts and the Stochastic is placed above its averages on the weekly charts. The
Nifty is placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Further, the Niftys 50-day SMA and 100-day SMA
are placed above the Niftys 200-day SMA, which is
known as the Golden Cross breakout. These
positive technical conditions would lead to regular
buying support especially at lower levels.
However, the prevailing negative technical
conditions still hold good and would weigh on the
market sentiment at higher levels. The MACD is
placed below its average on the weekly charts.
Further, the Stochastic is placed below its average
on the daily charts. Moreover, the Stochastic and
RSI are placed in the overbought zone on the
weekly charts. The RSI is also placed above its
average on the daily charts. These negative
technical conditions would lead to intermediate
bouts of profit booking and selling pressure
especially at higher levels.
The +DI line is placed above the ADX line and
DI line on the daily charts and is also placed above
the 33 level. But it has also come off its recent
A Time Communications Publication
BAZAR.COM
MBA, he has come far in the field of finance. Husband of Punita Sinha, the erstwhile FII fund manager and a founder
member and managing partner of Pacific Paradigm Advisory, the market feels reassured that somebody who
understands the nitty gritty of the market is in charge.
Suresh Prabhu, another confidant of NaMo, is playing a key role in developing the Railways, which is under his direct
control but sure to impact other broad economic policies too. In an interview to a pink paper prior to his appointment as
a cabinet minister, Prabhu said the government should get over 100 projects worth Rs.7 lakh crore going and usher in a
new policy paradigm to boost infrastructure investment to $10 trillion (Rs.600 lakh crore) in three decades.
So this week, lets just concentrate on the macro view, which will shape India's destiny in coming months and charter
the course of the Sensex and the Nifty in flight.
TRADING ON TECHNICALS
6 months
from now
12 months
from now
BSE SENSEX
28047
29440
36832
BSE BANKEX
20119
21407
29008
BSE MIDCAP
10155
11034
14917
BSE SMALLCAP
11217
12516
17704
Security Name
CNX NIFTY
8390
8806
11053
17670
18752
25417
low registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above then look to
book profits as the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Up Trend to
Down Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Up Trend.
Scrips
Last
Close
Level
1
Level
2
3337.00
375.75
14002.00
1625.00
658.75
3270.0
364.1
12630.0
1507.0
615.5
Level
3
Level
4
Relative
Strength
Weekly
Reversal
Value
Up
Trend
Date
Book
Profit
3400.0
381.7
14511.3
1693.0
678.7
Book
Profit
3528.0
396.4
15961.3
1854.0
730.2
79.6
76.7
75.2
71.7
70.8
3283.3
357.7
12839.0
1531.5
613.8
23-10-14
22-08-14
23-10-14
23-10-14
17-10-14
Center
Point
3272.0
367.0
13061.3
1532.0
627.2
3335.0
372.9
13570.7
1600.0
647.1
Last
Close
BAJAJ ELECTRICALS
MCLEOD RUSSEL (I)
SUN TV NETWORK
PIPAVAV DEFENCE & OF
ARVIND REMEDIES
233.85
242.65
317.05
38.45
36.75
Level
1
Level
2
Center
Point
Level
3
Level
4
Cover
Short
Cover
Short
Sell
Price
Sell
Price
Stop
loss
149.7
218.4
290.9
34.8
18.5
212.6
236.4
310.2
37.4
31.5
254.3
248.2
322.7
39.0
39.2
275.5
254.4
329.5
40.1
44.5
296.0
260.0
335.2
40.7
46.9
Weekly
Relative
Reversal
Strength
Value
34.43
36.79
39.16
39.97
40.11
273.15
250.09
320.01
39.31
43.21
Down
Trend
Date
14-11-14
14-11-14
14-11-14
31-10-14
14-11-14
EXIT LIST
Scrip
Last
Close
Sell
Price
Sell
Price
Sell
Price
Stop
Loss
Target
1
Target
2
BAJAJ FINSE
1033.90
923.3
BALKRISHNA INDUSTRIE
691.00
744.38
765.50
786.62 855.00
386.4
563.70
589.26
601.08
612.89 651.15
389.0
BIRLA CORPORATION
481.45
494.44
504.48
514.51 547.00
324.3
930.50
946.90 1000.00
CLARIANT CHEMICALS
873.00
914.10
636.1
DIVI'S LABORATORIES
1719.00
MAGMA FINCORP
108.70
115.38
117.97
120.57 128.95
71.5
190.55
192.74
194.20
195.66 200.40
167.9
SUPREME INDUSTRIES
583.35
591.42
595.35
599.28 612.00
524.8
BUY LIST
Last
Close
Buy
Price
Buy
Price
Buy
Price
Stop
Loss
Target
1
Target
2
BANK OF BARODA
1015.00
986.18
974.50
962.82
925.00
1085.2
1184.2
CESC
757.00
725.04
713.00
700.96
662.00
827.0
929.0
COLGATE-PALMOLIVE (I
1980.00
2275.6
2640.6
320.30
295.42
285.35
275.28
242.70
380.7
466.0
103.75
101.06
100.00
98.94
95.50
110.1
119.1
ICICI BANK
1695.00
1778.7
1881.7
420.55
399.74
391.65
383.56
357.35
468.3
536.9
NAGARJUNA CONSTRUCTI
61.30
58.70
57.53
56.35
52.55
68.7
78.6
SHRIRAM TRANSPORT FI
1048.00
1015.19
999.50
983.81
933.00
1148.2
1281.2
THERMAX
1049.00
1000.62
979.50
958.38
890.00
1179.6
1358.6
Scrip
PUNTER'S PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery
based trade for a possible time frame of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
BSE
Code
Last
Close
Buy Price
Buy On
Rise
531082
532689
506528
524138
532883
102.90
736.05
813.00
180.50
8.64
93.10
716.50
799.00
170.00
8.50
103.00
740.00
839.00
188.00
9.00
Scrips
88.10
697.00
730.00
163.05
7.81
112.2
766.6
906.4
203.4
9.7
127.1
809.6
1015.4
228.4
10.9
Risk
Reward
0.63
0.78
1.12
1.31
1.32
TOWER TALK
Alibaba in China clocked sales of over $7.7 billion in a single day a landmark event of e-com and e-tailing? Get
inspired by this and pay attention to the likes of Info Edge. Dalal Street today is busy discovering the new Alibaba of
e-com and e-tailing and look for big ticket IPOs coming from this segment.
Jayant Sinha, the new Minister of State for Finance, former investment banker and husband of ex-foreign fund
manager, Punita Sinha. At last, somebody who understands the bhhavnaa aspect in the market!
Linclon Pharma is a hidden gem in the pharma sector and can multiply many times from current levels.
Swiss Glasscoat is another multi-bagger with consistent dividend paying record. The scrip is headed for the Rs.200
mark.
Terruzzi Fercalx, a MNC has seen good accumulation by people in the know.
Axiscades is another Dynamatic Technologies in the making. Many positive developments happening in the
company.
Rural Electrification Corporation has seen good amount of buying and the stock is likely to touch the Rs.350
mark before this expiry.
After Ranbaxy, Biocon is a takeover candidate. The stock is being accumulated by knowledgeable people for
the past two months.
Heavy investment buying is reported in J.K Tyres. With a likely FY15 EPS of Rs.75, the share is poised to touch
Rs.750 mark.
Kovai Medical is all set to post an EPS of over Rs.40 in FY15. The share is poised to touch the Rs.700 mark.
Heavy investment buying is seen in the MNC counters of Hella India and Morganite Crucible. The shares are
expected to rise over 20% in the coming sessions.
Some HNIs have bought a large chunk of Jindal Saw shares. The share is poised to touch the Rs.150 mark in the
short-term.
Sudar Industries, manufacturer of textile garments and pharma chemicals, has posted standalone Q2FY15 EPS of
Rs.5.5 and Rs.10 in H1FY15. Its FY14 EPS was Rs.20. The share is expected to touch the three figure mark as this
diversified company with a turnover of about Rs.1200 crore is expected to clock an EPS of over Rs.25 in FY15.
Usher Agro (June-end) has posted Q1FY15 EPS of Rs.4.6. Based on the completed expansion and ongoing capex,
this agro based major is expected to clock an EPS of Rs.22 as against Rs.17.5 in FY14.The share is heading towards
the Rs.100 mark.
Aarti Drugs has posted Q2FY15 EPS of Rs.15 and H1FY15 EPS of Rs.30. Based on this, an FY15 EPS of over Rs.65
can be anticipated. The share is also a strong bonus candidate and is expected to touch Rs.1000.
BEST BET
Code: 533169
By Sanjiv K. Pednekar
Man Infraconstruction Ltd. (MIL) is a well-established name in the field of residential, infrastructure, commercial and
industrial premises in India. From residential housing to township including infrastructural facilities to high rise
buildings, the company has developed a wide expertise and strengths in the sector of mass housing.
A Time Communications Publication
In the road infrastructure sector, it undertakes construction of roads that includes earthwork, paving, sewerage, storm
water drainage, electrification, landscaping and much more.
MIL has core competence in constructing Container Terminals (Ports) and Container Freight Stations (CFS) facilities for
international ports in India. Reclaiming land from the sea to facilitate construction of berths for ships to dock,
construction of concrete and asphalt roads, rail works, concrete paving work, fire fighting systems, warehouses and
workshops, post operations and custom space administrative office building - all this and much more goes in to
developing ports and harbours. MILs prestigious clients include Adani Port, Airtel, Pipavav Port, Century Ply, Everest
Industries, Godfrey Phillips, Praj Inds, Tata Group, Kohinoor etc.
The company has an equity of Rs.49.50 crore supported by huge reserves of Rs.539.03 crore in FY14 leading to a book
value of Rs.23.78 on its Rs.2 paid-up share.
Its FY14 EPS was Rs.1.15, which may rise to about Rs.3.50 in FY15.
The company has consistently declared dividend between 14% to 45% for the last 7 years.
Promoters hold 68.66% equity stake, FIIs hold 0.95%, financial institutions hold 3.51%, NRIs hold 14.36% and the
investing public holds 7.07%.
The company has a market capitalization of around Rs.620
crore as on 14-11-2014.
The company has consistently declared growth-oriented
financial performance over the last 5 years. Taking into
consideration the recession in the sector, its FY14 results are
quite reasonable. Its turnover declined to Rs.267.13 crore
from Rs.379.41 crore in FY13. Gross profit, too, declined
proportionately to Rs.51.44 crore from Rs.75.49 crore. After
providing for lower depreciation of Rs.10.09 crore as against
Rs.15.20 crore in FY13 and lower taxation provision at
Rs.12.80 crore from Rs.16.71 crore in FY13, net profit declined
to Rs.28.55 crore from Rs.43.58 crore in the previous year. The
EPS declined to Rs.1.15 from Rs.1.76 in FY13 and it paid a
dividend of 14% as against 23% in FY13.
While FY14 working was under pressure, it has declared a
highly encouraging performance for Q2FY15 as it recorded net
profit of Rs.21.34 crore as against Rs.6.05 crore in Q2FY14
even though the total income from operations was lower at
Rs.52.21 crore in Q2FY15 as against Rs.60.34 in Q2FY14.
At the half-yearly level, while total income was lower at
Rs.118.56 crore from Rs.126.73 crore in H1FY14, net profit
zoomed to Rs.40.48 crore in H1FY15 from Rs.14.73 crore in
H1FY14.
India is heavily focused on the infrastructure development
since the turn of the century and the sector has contributed to
the countrys reputation as one of the fastest growing
economies in the world. The Indian government has played a
significant role in the sectors growth. The value of the total
road and bridge infrastructure in India is likely to grow at a
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.4% over the next
5 years.
The countrys road and bridges infrastructure is projected to
touch US $19.2 billion by 2017. Being a well-established player
in the sector MIL has a bright future ahead.
Currently, the Man Infraconstruction share trades at Rs.25. Its
52-week high/low is Rs.38/17. After touching a 52-week low
of Rs.17 it moved up sharply to touch a high of 38. Profit
A Time Communications Publication
Coming soon
Stocks
Bharti Airtel
TATA Steel
NMDC
Aditya Birla Nuvo
LIC Housing
Adani Power
Kalyani Steel
Sonata Software
Ambika Cotton
Recom. at (Rs.)
342.5 (ABP)
525 (ABP)
177.5 (ABP)
1347 (ABP)
313.5 (ABP)
58 (ABP)
97
65
343
High (Rs.)
420
574
196
1745
386
68.5
179
147
579
Gain %
22.62%
9.33%
10.42%
29.54%
23.12%
18.10%
84.53%
126.15%
68.80%
Stocks
Bharti Airtel
TATA Chemicals
OIL India
ICICI Bank
Godavari Power
JBF Industries
TV Today
Sonata Software
Mahindra Life
Recom. at (Rs.)
370
385
615
1545 (ABP)
155
135
200
107
530 (ABP)
High (Rs.)
420
421
669
1693
186
166.5
259
147
550
Gain %
13.51%
9.42%
8.78%
9.57%
20%
23.33%
29.5%
37.38%
3.77%
th
booking at higher levels brought it down to around Rs.21 level. Now it is consolidating between Rs.21-25. Investors are,
therefore, advised to accumulate this share at every decline in this range. At a breakout above Rs.27, it could recover to
its recent high of Rs.38 within 4 months. The average industry price earning (P/E) ratio is 21. Assuming an EPS of
Rs.3.50 in FY15, it has the potential to hit Rs.50 within 2 years.
STOCK ANALYSIS
Q2FY15
24724.29
20576.16
74.40
329.43
1279.59
2613.51
2660.56
1.96
Q2FY14
16609.27
13885.18
79.91
426.14
711.96
1665.90
2660.56
1.25
H1FY15
42285.80
35211.57
159.94
752.24
1847.38
4634.55
2660.56
3.48
H1FY14
30169.89
25120.81
98.65
810.56
1398.09
2939.08
2660.56
2.21
(Rs in lakh)
FY14
71682.15
60283.04
263.54
1705.83
3514.99
6441.83
2660.56
32618.48
4.84
Latest Results: The companys consolidated sales jumped 48.86% to Rs.247.24 crore in Q2FY15 from Rs.166.09 crore in
Q2FY14. Net profit soared 56.90% to Rs.26.14 crore in Q2FY15 from Rs.16.66 crore in Q2FY14. It thus recorded Q2FY15
EPS of Rs.1.96 as against Q2FY14 EPS of Rs.1.25. In the current first half (H1FY15), the EPS stood at Rs.3.48 as against
Rs.2.21 in H1FY14.
Financials: CCL Products has an equity base of Rs.26.51 crore supported by reserves of Rs.326.18 crore leading to a
share book value of Rs.26.52 (FV: Rs.2). It has a debt:equity ratio of 0.94 with RoCE of 19.04% and RoNW of 20.41%.
Share Profile: The companys share with a face value of Rs.2 is listed on the NSE and the BSE under the B group and hit
a 52-week high/low of Rs.140.50/Rs.26.30. At its current market price of Rs.133.70, the company has a market
capitalization of Rs.1,778.58 crore.
Dividends: The company has been paying dividends as shown here: FY14 - 60%, FY13 - 50%, FY12 - 50%, FY11 - 20%,
FY10 - 15%, FY09 - 10%, FY08 - 50%.
Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 44.54% equity in the company while the balance 55.46% is held by noncorporate promoters, institutions, mutual funds and the investing public. Among funds, Reliance Mutual Fund and Tata
Mutual Fund have included the companys share in their various schemes.
Prospects: Instant coffee has been on the market for many decades because of its convenience. Soluble coffee
consumption accounts for over 20% of global coffee consumption. The instant coffee market has potential to be
transformed away from traditional small glass jars and tins. Liquid coffee also makes it convenient to put in retail
locations with ease of use.
The company has a long standing presence in global markets in the traditional Spray-Dried Instant Coffee segment and
has also made a successful entry in the Freeze- Dried Coffee segment. Now, it is focusing on the domestic market.
The companys endeavors through its Quality Control Division to enhance the quality of its products by a careful mix of
various blends and essence and offer them at competitive prices have started yielding results. Efforts to achieve the right
mix of raw-materials have been fruitful in achieving the best quality product at the most competitive price. Today, the
company offers more than 70 varieties and blends of coffee to its customers. Further, the expanded capacity will boost
sales and profitability.
China has now emerged into a coffee drinking country from the traditional tea drinking nation it was. According to the
Euro monitor analyst, China now ranks as the fourth-largest global market for RTD coffee in terms of volume, and fifth in
terms of value. This growth is largely a result of the attributes it shares with instant coffee, convenience and a malleable
flavour profile.
Vietnams instant coffee market is expected to continue to grow steadily in coming years due to a number of market
trends. The growth of instant coffee stemmed from the rising demand among adolescent consumers, who seek
convenient and time saving methods for consuming hot drinks in tune with their busy lifestyle.
Modern times have witnessed evolution of coffee drinking from an everyday habit to a healthy lifestyle choice. Coffee
has gained the status of being the most preferred beverage worldwide and is the second most traded commodity in the
world. Consumption of instant coffee is more predominant in the East, West and Northern regions of India. The instant
coffee sector outlook is bright as consumers increasingly value instant coffees simplicity of preparation.
Its presence in Vietnam helps CCL Products to cater to the coffee needs of ASEAN countries and it is in close proximity to
South-East Asian nations, Japan, Korea, China etc. Most of these countries have granted Vietnam the status of the most
favoured nation with reduced or NIL duty structures in addition to huge savings on logistics.
Conclusion: CCL Products has made a successful entry in the retail market with its premium brands. The huge potential
for soluble coffee in the domestic market made the company concentrate on domestic sales both in the private label
segment and through its established brands. Soluble coffee consumption in India is expected to witness a growth of 3.9%
over the next 5 years and retail coffee sales are expected to reach Rs.3800 crore by 2017.
At its current market price of Rs.133.70 (FV:Rs.2), the CCL Products share price discounts less than 28 times its FY14
EPS of Rs.4.84. Although this discounting may appear steep, considering the high realizations in coffee and coffee
products in global markets and the likely boost in the top-line and bottom-line of its Vietnamese operations, the current
discounting appears quite reasonable. Considering its encouraging performance, regular payouts, high realizations for
coffee products and bright prospects going ahead, the share is a good addition on declines for brewing profits in the
medium-to-long-term.
MARKET REVIEW
According to the advanced G20 release in the OECDs latest Economic Outlook report, growth will strengthen in India
as investment picks up from a 5.4% rate in 2014 to 6.4% in 2015 and 6.6% in 2016.
The Indian government expects the GDP growth between 5.4% and 5.9% in the current fiscal whereas the economy
grew by below -5% in 2012-13 and 2013-14.
OECD Secretary-General, Angel Gurria, said, A number of business-friendly measures have been adopted over the
past few months in India. The global economy remains stuck in low gear but is expected to accelerate gradually if
countries implement growth-supportive policies. Widening differences across countries and regions are adding to the
major risks on the horizon.
We have yet to achieve a broad-based sustained global expansion as investment, credit and international trade
remain hesitant, Gurria noted.
Financial risks remain high and may increase market volatility in the coming period also there is an increasing risk
of stagnation in the euro area. Countries must employ all monetary, fiscal and structural reform policies at their disposal
to address these risks and support growth, Gurria added.
Global GDP growth is projected to reach a 3.3% rate in 2014 before accelerating to 3.7% in 2015 and 3.9% in 2016,
the outlook report showed.
Among the advanced economies, USA is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2014 and around 3% in 2015 and 2016. Growth
in the Euro zone is expected to pick up slowly from 0.8% in 2014 to 1.1% in 2015 and 1.7% in 2016.
Global economic growth eased to a 6-month low in October 2014 reflecting weaker increases in new business and a
slowdown in the rate of hiring, a survey showed.
J.P.Morgans Global All-Industry Output Index produced with Markit fell to 53.6 from Septembers 54.8 but has held
above the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction for more than two years.
A global PMI covering the services industry fell to 53.7 from 55.2. The October 2014 manufacturing PMI remained
unchanged from 52.2 in September 2014.
The index combines survey data from countries
A Winner all the way!
including the United States, Japan, Germany, France,
Britain, China and Russia.
WINNERS of 2015
On the crude oil scenario, oil prices fell more than 3%
Since the last nine years, Money Times has been publishing
a 4-year low last week as Brent crude oil fell below $80
an unique annual product called WINNERS that features a
per barrel after a stockpile surge in USA had traders
selection of stocks destined to perform in the new calendar
worried about an oil glut.
year.
Key indices edged higher settling flat on Monday, 10
November 2014, on marginal buying. The Sensex inched
Investors can take a position in these stocks and also trade in
them frequently given their High & Low levels that are aided
6.10 points (+0.02%) to close at 27,874.73. The Nifty
by three quarterly reviews.
moved up 7.25 points (+0.09%) to close at 8,344.25.
Key indices jumped on Tuesday, 11 November 2014,
Astute investors have the comfort of knowing the scrips that
on positive buying of equities due to cooling crude oil
will be the best performers in the coming year. For example,
prices. The Sensex moved higher 35.33 points (+0.13%)
out of the 20 Winners spotted for 2014, 16 have hit their
to close at 27,910.06. The was up 18.40 points (+0.22%)
First Yearly Target while 6 of them have also hit their Second
to close at 8,362.65.
Yearly Target.
Key indices gained on Wednesday, 12 November 2014,
For new subscribers of WINNERS of 2015, we offer the third
on strong global cues. The Sensex rallied 98.84 points
and last quarterly review of WINNERS of 2014 pertaining to
(+0.35%) to close at 28,008.90. The Nifty was up 20.65
October-December 2014 as a special offer as this product
th
st
points (+0.25%) to close at 8,383.30.
enters the 10 year of publication on 1 January 2015.
Key indices edged lower on Thursday, 13 November
To avail of this bonus offer, please book your subscription to
2014, on profit booking. The Sensex fell 68.26 points (WINNERS of 2015 against a payment of Rs.6000 favouring
0.24%) to close at 27,940.64. The Nifty was down 25.45
Time Communications India Ltd. and deposit in our State
points (-0.30%) to close at 8,357.85.
Bank of India C/A 10043795661 (IFSC: SBIN0005347) or ICICI
Key indices settled higher on Friday, 14 November
Bank C/A 623505381145 (IFSC: ICIC0006235).
2014, on buying by retail investors. The Sensex rallied
For further details, contact us on 022-22616970, 22654805 or
106.02 points (+0.38%) to close at 28,046.66. The Nifty
moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
was up 32.05 points (+0.38%) to an all-time closing high
at 8,389.90.
A Time Communications Publication
GURU SPEAK
10
at 5.52% in October 2014 was much below RBI Governors expectation of 6%. He had once stated that he will find
room for easing interest rates only when retail inflation falls to 6%. As it has fallen below 6% now, he should have
no hesitation to cut interest rate by 50 basis points at least since he had raised it by 100 basis points on his one year
regime.
Based on the IIP data and the sharp fall in inflation, the stock market should have flared up by 300 to 500 Sensex
points. But it was so astonishing that the market instead fell by 68.26 points to end at 27940 and CNX Nifty, too, finished
lower by 25 points at 8357 on Thursday, 13 November 2014.
The fall was over 120 points in intra-day trades. This means that there are hidden forces that lead to strange
developments to confuse investors and keep them in suspense.
The market recorded a rise of 200 to 300 points even when the IIP data was negative. But when the Sensex closes in
the red, when both the IIP data and retail inflation is comfortably positive, it is indeed a matter of great concern and
proves that punters have the upper hand to steer the market in their direction irrespective of the fundamental values.
(d) FIIs have been pumping fresh funds almost every day in November 2014 and they are much impressed by the
growing Indian economy moving forward hereon and expect the 2014-15 GDP to rise 1% YoY basis and touch 5.7%.
FIIs aggressive buying almost every day is a clear indication that the Indian stock market will remain bullish till it
hits the 30,000 mark!
(e) The countrys exchequer is flush with the good tax collections on account of the rise in trading volumes and growth
in business and industrial activities. Besides, the auction of 2G and 3G spectrum as well as the coal block allotments
on or before March 2015 through e-auction.
(f) If the market remains good, divestment of government stake of Rs.40,000 to 50,000 crore cannot be ruled out.
The government has raised custom duty on petroleum & crude products and cut petroleum prices for the third time
in a row this year. This also attracts good tax collections followed by higher consumption.
(g) A soft interest regime is also likely either from December 2014 onwards or before the end of 2014-15. This will
prove to be the greatest trigger to boost the stock markets to dizzy heights. As stated last week, the small and mid
cap stocks still have enough scope because out of the 2500 stocks traded almost daily hardly 500 to 700 stocks have
participated that too half heartedly.
As such, investors who are breaking their heads in the F&O segment, which has a two-way traffic i.e. chances of
making money or loss alternatively. It is indeed a waste of time getting nothing! But if you invest in the bullish trend, it
will benefit you undoubtedly.
The third edition of PANCHRATNA quarterly is an unique product as it has benefitted subscribers immensely by
investing in shares priced Rs.50-Rs.70 per share.
Out of the 15 stocks recommended in the three editions, 10 stocks have given 100% to 150% gains in just 10 months
and the balance 5 are on the verge of hitting a new high.
Ashok Leyland recommended at Rs.39.40 a few months back is the latest one to shoot up to Rs.56 on 14th November.
The fourth edition of Panchratna quarterly is under preparation. Efforts are on to select 5 stocks at the current high
levels. In the last issue, we had made sure that there are at least two stocks with good liquidity.
Two such stocks recommended in the last issue attracted volumes of 50 lakh shares in a day creating fancy in
Pancharatna stocks.
Sugar stocks were in the limelight on Thursday, 13
Fresh One Buy Daily
November 2014. This sector is one that has been
neglected by investors in the last three years. There
Fresh One Buy Daily is for investors/traders who are keen to
are several stocks in the sector with good
focus and gain from a single stock every trading day.
fundamentals.
With just one daily recommendation selected from stocks in
Textiles, which is the backbone of industrial activity
an uptrend, you can now book profit the same day or carry
is another sector waiting for the boom.
over the trade if the target is not met. Our review over the
next 4 days will provide new exit levels while the stock is still in
Auto Ancillaries is another sector where we can
an uptrend.
find many good stocks to pick up for a decent rise. To
sum-up, investors should not look only at the rise or
This low risk, high return product is available for online
fall in the indices. It is punters playing den where
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fundamentals do not work but their muscle power
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There was no reason that the market on Thursday,
11
13 November 2014 should have closed in the negative. But punters have once again tried to misguide participants by a
negative closing, which was neutralized on Friday, 14 November 2014, as the Sensex recovered 106 points to close the
day and week at 28046.66. As forecast earlier, the market is readying for a new orbit, which will be triggered by the new
RBI Policy.
STOCK WATCH
By Amit Kumar Gupta
Mahindra CIE Automotive Ltd. (Code: 532756) (CMP: Rs.224) (TGT: Rs.260)
Mahindra CIE Automotive Ltd. (MCI), formerly Mahindra Forgings Ltd., is a global forging company with plants in
Germany, the United Kingdom and India. The German operations provide a range of forging parts for trucks. The Indian
operations focus on design, development and machining of crankshafts for cars and utility vehicles (UVs) while the UK
operations focus on near net forgings for the car market. In Europe, a portion of the product portfolio consists of
products like machined forgings. The companys products include engine components, which include crankshaft,
camshaft, connecting rods, steering components and other forged products. The company manufactures steering
knuckles/stub axles in weight range of 3 kg to 38 kg. Effective 24 October 2013, Participaciones Internacionales
Autometal Dos SL, an unit of CIE Automotive SA's Autometal SA subsidiary, acquired a 52.65% interest in Mahindra
Forgings Ltd.
Post the consummation of the deal, CIE would hold 51% in the entity while Mahindra would directly hold ~20%.
The Bombay High court has sanctioned the merger scheme of amalgamation between Mahindra CIE Automotive and
Mahindra Ugine Steel, Mahindra Composites, Mahindra Hinoday Industries Ltd, Mahindra Gears International Ltd,
Mahindra Investments (India) Pvt Ltd, Participaciones Internacionales Autometal Tres, SL.
The next set of approvals from SEBI, RBI and FIPB are likely to come in 4-5 weeks while the entire process is likely to
be completed by the middle of December 2014 as per the management commentary.
We feel MCI provides a rare and unique Indian auto components play, which has a global footprint as global
manufacturers display massive turnaround possibilities. MCI has presence across both commercial as well as passenger
vehicles with the complementary strengths of the two parents. With cost controls and economic recovery playing out,
we expect utilisation levels to improve, EBIT margins to rise to ~8% and RoCE expansion to ~14.5% in FY17E. MCIs
track record of turnarounds through cost control and focus on financial metrics provides the confidence.
Mahindra CIE Auto is an unique case of valuation considering the massive turnaround possibilities. We expect
utilisation levels to improve leading the EBIT margins to rise to 9% and RoCE expansion to ~15.9% in FY17E. We expect
a significant increase in dividend payouts to ~40% in line with MCIs philosophy of high dividend payouts (~40-50%).
We value MCI on a combination of P/E and EV/EBITDA. Considering it is a turnaround company, we upgrade the P/E
multiples in line with the multiple expansion of its peers in the forging space.
We have a Buy on the stock with a target of Rs.250.
Technical Outlook- The Mahindra CIE Automotive Ltd. stock is very strong on the daily chart and has been making
higher highs and higher lows and is very strong in all time frames. The stock is also trading above all important moving
averages like 200-DMA & 100-DMA and has broken out of ascending triangle pattern.
Start accumulation at this level at Rs.224 and on dips to Rs.195 for medium-to-long-term investment and price target of
Rs.260+ in the next 12 months.
*********
V-Guard Industries Ltd. (Code: 532953) (CMP: Rs. 910) (TGT: Rs.1050)
Earlier, we had recommended to buy this stock under Stock Watch on 7 April 2014 at Rs.464. Thereafter, the stock
zoomed smartly to Rs.940. yielding a fabulous return of 102.5%
V-Guard Industries Ltd. is engaged in the manufacturing and marketing a range of products, including voltage stabilizers,
polyvinyl chloride (PVC) Cables, Pumps and Motors, Electric Water Heaters, Digital uninterruptible power supply (UPS)
systems, Fans, Solar Water Heaters, Switchgears and Induction Cooktops. The company operates in three segments:
Electronic Products, Electrical / Electro Mechanical Products and Others. Its manufacturing facilities located at K.G.
Chavady at Coimbatore in Tamil Nadu, at Kashipur in Utharakhand and at Kala Amb in Himachal Pradesh.
V-Guards Q2FY15 revenue grew 29% YoY to Rs.430 crore compared to our and Bloombergs consensus expectation
of ~20% growth. Revenue momentum accelerated in South India (67% of revenue, +21% YoY) while remaining strong
in rest of India (+47% YoY). Digital UPS revenues more than doubled YoY, and electric water heaters continued to
A Time Communications Publication
12
deliver robust growth (+43% YoY). Most other products also saw strong revenue growth (housing wires: 20% YoY,
stabilizers: 25% YoY, pumps: 19% YoY, fans: 36% YoY, new products: 60% YoY, solar water heater: 42%).
For the first half, V-Guard has delivered 23% YoY growth in H1FY15 despite an enlarged base (H1FY14: 17%).
The benefit of strong revenue growth in Q2FY15 was partly offset by the EBITDA margin (8.3%, +16bps YoY) coming
lower than our expectation (8.5%). Consequently, EBITDA (Rs356m, +32% YoY) was only 1-4% ahead of our and
consensus expectations despite gross margins expanding 46bps YoY. This was a result of higher employee costs (+25%
YoY), ad spend (+31% YoY) and other overhead costs (+36% YoY) increasing sharply. The management also highlighted
certain one-offs like: a) increase in warranty costs (digital UPS) and b) write-offs of components (movement to a new
after sales service model) and higher Q2FY15 overheads by ~Rs.4-4.5 crore (~1ppt of revenues).
We expect V-Guard to post 29% EPS CAGR over FY14-17E and think revenue momentum should continue in H2FY15:
(a) base quarters are relatively weak (H2FY14: +7% YoY cf. 17% growth in H1FY14) and (b) growth has picked up in
digital UPS, pumps and stabilizers and (c) electric water heaters (led by the recently launched Pebble brand) and new
products enjoy strong growth.
We, therefore, raise our FY14-17E revenues by 7-11% and build-in one-off costs incurred in Q2FY15 and lower the
EBITDA estimates by 60bps for FY15E and by 20-30bps for FY16E-17E. Further, we raise depreciation (new Companies
Act) and tax rate (expiry of certain tax exemptions) assumptions in-line with the trend in H1FY15. This results in a 3%
drop in FY15E PAT but raises FY16E-17E PAT by 4-8%.
Given its strong franchise impressive return ratios of >9x, we think V-Guard should be able to sustain its impressive
25-27% RoEs over FY15E-17E.
Valuation: We recommend to buy the V-Guard stock with a price with target of Rs.1058 as we move forward our Future
Value by six months (to Sep-15) and attach a higher multiple (24x P/E vs 20x earlier) on improved revenue growth
visibility. Valuations look reasonable to us at 23xFYE/ 18.3x FY16E/ FY17E P/E.
Technical Outlook: The V-Guard Industries stock is very strong on the daily chart as it has been making higher highs
and higher lows and is very strong in all time frames. The stock is also trading above all important moving averages like
200-DMA & 100-DMA.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.910 and on dips to Rs.835 for medium-to-long-term investment and price target of
Rs.1050+ in the next 12 months.
FIFTY FIFTY
By Rupesh M. Daga
13
multiple of 30x. Other listed group companies like Panasonic Carbon and Panasonic Appliances trade a P/E multiple of
20x and 50x respectively.
Considering its growth prospects, this stock of this Japanese MNC is a safe investment with good growth prospects.
********
14
EXPERT EYE
By Vihari
15
quality, DCMSIL is one of the preferred suppliers to the international tyre manufacturers in the high performance
segment. With long-term understanding with all leading tyre manufacturers like Goodyear, Bridgestone, Pirelli, Michelin
and Dunlop, the company will witness a steady growth in revenues.
Demand for DCMSILs chemical products continues to remain stable and the company was able to increase prices as
well. The focus is on value-added products such as extra neutral alcohol and anhydrous alcohol as well as on exports. A
plant to manufacture a high-value product on a contract basis for a large multinational corporation has been
commissioned, which can open new opportunities in future.
DCMSIL has posted excellent FY14 as well as H1FY15 results. Based on the current going and the initiatives
announced by the government, DCMSIL is expected to post an EPS of Rs.30 in FY15.
In view of DCMSILs diversified business model, increased sugar consumption, improving prospects for its fibre and
industrial chemicals coupled with improved results, the DCMSIL share trades at Rs.132 at a forward P/E multiple of 4.4
on FY15 estimated EPS of Rs.30 and recommended for 50% medium-to-short-term gain with a price target of Rs.210
when it will trade at a forward P/E of 7. The 52-week high/low of the share has been Rs.173/30.
********
16
hold 19.7% in the equity, MFs hold 21.6%, PCBs hold 16.6% and with foreign holding of 12.3% leaves 29.8% with the
investing public.
The Defence segment, both domestic and overseas put together, contributes over 90% of its revenues. While the
production of Missiles and Radar sub-systems drives the domestic business, other defence requirements is driving the
export business. The business potential from this segment is likely to improve further in the coming years.
AMPL will spend about Rs.12 crore in FY15 to augment its Development and Production and the amount will be met
out of internal accruals and term loans. In FY14, AMPL had added assets (net) worth Rs.32 crore to the gross block. Most
of the additions pertain to Testing equipments, EMI/EMC test facility and 1 MW solar plant for captive consumption. The
addition of these equipments and facilities has enhanced its productivity.
Astra Micro has offered a board position to a L&T nominee in April 2014. It is a strategic decision that is directionally
positive and will bring in significant synergies. The recent hike in composite FDI (FDI+FII) limit in defence companies to
49% will lead to higher P/E multiples.
The Indian Defence Budget is rising year on year both in terms of the total value and also as a percentage of the Union
Budget allocation itself and the percentage of capital expenditure is growing every year creating a bigger demand for
defence equipment. Also, studies show that the Indian defence market is among the most attractive defence markets in
the world. Till recently, the Armed forces, procured their requirements either by direct imports or products developed
by Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) labs and produced by defence PSUs or the Ordnance
factories. With the Government of Indias thrust on self-reliance, new opportunities are now emerging in this sector.
To accelerate the process of self-reliance, DRDO labs are partnering with private industries in designing new
products and are also willing to transfer technologies of complex products that till now was confined to PSUs or
Ordnance Factories.
Roongtas Panchratna
Also, the latest Defence Procurement Policy
(DPP) provides for offset credits for the
Pick of 5 Penny stocks, Dark Horses, Turnaround stocks
technologies transferred (TOT) to Indian
The lacklustre five years between 2008 and 2013 have created a
companies, which will encourage the foreign
great opportunity to invest in Penny stocks, Dark Horses and
companies to transfer know-how thereby
Turnaround stocks in 2014-15 and reap profits higher than what
creating more opportunities for Indian
expensive blue chips or Index based stocks can offer.
companies.
Mr. G. S. Roongta, who has acquired a name in identifying such
The private sector engaged in defence
winners early in Money Times, will pick five such stocks below Rs.50
manufacturing is extremely delighted by this
each for an investment horizon of 1-2 years.
policy initiative, which will ensure that the
industry becomes self-reliant and millions of
Priced at Rs.2500 per quarter, Rs.4000 half-yearly & Rs.7000
new jobs are created.
annually, the first issue was released on 1st April 2014.
Indian companies will succeed with the help
To subscribe, you can deposit cheque/cash or transfer the amount via
of foreign companies as it benefits both. Once
RTGS/NEFT to the company bank account:
indigenous manufacturing takes root, research
(1) Time Communications (India) Ltd C/A 10043795661 at State
and development for the indigenous military
Bank of India, Fort Market Branch, Fort, Mumbai 400 001 (IFSC:
industry and civil aircraft is likely to be the
SBIN0005347) or
other focus area of the Indian government.
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AMPL is a beneficiary of defence project
Bank Ltd., Fort Branch, Fort, Mumbai 400 001 (IFSC: ICIC0006235)
announcements and has put in bids worth
Note: For cash deposit, kindly add Rs.25 extra for SBI or Rs.100 extra
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Based on the H1FY15 results, AMPL is likely
After transfer, please advise us by e-mail mentioning the bank &
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branch, electronic transfer number and date of payment with your
to Rs.15 in FY16. At the current market price of
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Rs.118, the Astra Micro share trades at a
supply immediately.
forward P/E multiple of 9.8 on FY15 estimated
earnings and 7.9 times FY16 projected earnings.
You can contact us on 022-22616970, 22654805 or
A reasonable P/E ratio of 15 will take its share
moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
price to Rs.180 in the medium-term and Rs.225
thereafter. The 52-week high/low of the share has been Rs.156/40.
17
TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel
Q2FY15
24.29
1.76
0.58
1.18
2.38
Q2FY14
16.16
1.18
0.39
0.79
1.58
H1FY15
45.09
3.15
1.02
2.12
4.26
H1FY14
32.45
2.39
0.79
1.60
3.21
FY14
76.79
5.75
1.94
3.80
7.61
FY15(E)
95
4.5
9
FY16(E)
120
5.3
10.6
For FY15, SGEL can deliver net sales of Rs.95 crore with net profit of Rs.4.5 crore translating into an EPS of Rs.9. For
FY16, it can deliver net sales of Rs.120 crore and PAT of Rs.5.3 crore translating into an EPS of Rs.10.6.
The scrip is trading at 10.2xFY15(E) EPS & 8.7xFY16(E) EPS, which is very cheap compared to its peers. The
company has paid regular dividends to its shareholders. It paid 22% dividend for FY13 and 25% for FY14.
Investors can buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.79. On the upper side, it will zoom to Rs.125 level in the mediumterm and Rs.160 level in the next 12-16 months.
MARKET FOLIO
18
The company has organized a chain of uniform fabric conferences on 23 rd November at Rajahmundry, on 29th November
at Chennai, on 5th December at Tirupur, on 12th December at Trichy and on 14th December at Ambala.
Mafatlal specializes in high end quality of school and corporate uniform fabrics and provides a range of polyester cotton
blended, polyester viscose blended, polyester wool blended fabrics in over 3000 designs in shirtings and over 150
shades in suitings.
Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to
Lane, Mumbai 400 008. Registration No.: 63312/91, REGD. NO. MH/MR/South - 72/ 2006-08
be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any liability for the use of
this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are
solely responsible for their actions. The author, his company or his acquaintances may/may not have positions in the above mentioned scrip.
19
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