NAME OF RESEARCH PROJECT: Design and Planning of Tsunami Warning and Evacuation

Systems
FUNDING AGENCY: NSERC
STUDENT RESEARCHER: Sanjeewa Wickramaratne
Level of the project: PhD
SUPERVISOR AND CO-SUPERVISORS: Dr. S.C. Wirasinghe, Dr. J.Y. Ruwanpura
START DATE: September 1, 2009
END DATE: June 7, 2010 (Convocation: November 2010)
DESCRIPTION OF THE RESEARCH PROJECT:
The massive and unprecedented destruction caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami opened
up a whole new arena to explore natural disasters in the context of disaster risk management. A
proper early warning mechanism leading to successful evacuation prevents such catastrophes
and thus emphasizes the necessity of a concrete framework for disaster preparedness planning
for the Indian Ocean. Hence, this research aimed at developing and assessing a sustainable
tsunami warning and evacuation mechanism with an emphasis on Sri Lanka: the second most
affected country in the 2004 mega tsunami event.
This research successfully models the tsunami warning and evacuation (TWE) activities from the
genesis of an earthquake up to the completion of evacuation. A novel approach of network
modeling with simulation is showcased, which provides stochastical results of the time
consumption of each of the constituting activities and the whole TWE process. The Sri Lankan
national warning and evacuation process exemplifies the selected methodology with data have
been obtained through interviews and discussions with expert professionals. The simulation
further assists in determining the adequacy of the existing TWE provisions at both international
and national levels.
The research is particularly cognizant of probable scenarios for Sri Lanka, inclusive of nighttime
and west coast tsunamis. Illustrative comparisons of such scenarios with the status quo,
demonstrate the extra vulnerability of the current systems in place. Furthermore, the research
individually models failures of the key stakeholders of the TWE process and quantifies the
consequences with respect to delays in warning and evacuation.
The second stage of the study elucidates a decision analysis exercise performed to select an
optimal tsunami detection mechanism for Sri Lanka out of two alternatives: a tide gauge and a
buoy system. During the process, many scenarios that are traditionally not studied have been
addressed and quantified. In particular, the probabilities of tsunami detection in the proposed
systems and, the costs and probabilities of evacuations and false warnings are determined for the
first time from the Sri Lankan perspective. The study concludes with the complete set of
guidelines for each of the stakeholder institutions for streamlined functionality.
The very introduction of network modeling for disasters and the presented success story, with
respect to tsunamis, have already lead to ramifications in other types of disaster modeling, such
as tornadoes.

PUBLICATIONS:
Peer Reviewed Journal Papers
1.

Wickramaratne, S., Ruwanpura, J., & Wirasinghe, S.C., Decision Analysis for a Tsunami
Detection System for Day/Night and Sunda Trench/Makran Fault Earthquake Scenarios
Case Study: Sri Lanka, Journal of Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems,
(Submitted Jan 2011).

2.

Ruwanpura, J., Wickramaratne, S., Braun, A. & Wirasinghe, S.C., Planning and
Modelling for Mitigation of Tsunami Impacts, Journal of Civil Engineering and
Environmental
Systems,
26(2),2009,
195-209.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10286600802435835.

Peer Reviewed Full Conference Papers

1.

Wickramaratne, S., Ruwanpura, J., & Wirasinghe, S.C., Assessment of the Adequacy of
Tsunami Warning and Evacuation Systems through Network Simulation, Proc. of the
105th Annual Sessions, The Institution of Engineers Sri Lanka (IESL),Sri Lanka, October
15 - 22,2011 (accepted).

2.

Wickramaratne, S., Ruwanpura, J., & Wirasinghe, S.C., Sustainable Tsunami Warning &
Evacuation Mechanism for Sri Lanka, Proc. of International Conference on Building
Resilience, Heritance Kandalama, Sri Lanka, July 19 21, 2011.

3. Wickramaratne, S., Ruwanpura, J., & Wirasinghe, S.C., Analysis of Plans for Tsunami

Related Evacuations in Sri Lanka, Proc. of the 3rd WFEO-JFES-JSCE Joint International
Symposium on Disaster Risk Management, Fukuoka, Japan. Sep 3, 2009, 71-77.
4.

Wickramaratne, S., Ruwanpura, J., & Wirasinghe, S.C., Risk Assessment and Modelling
for Tsunamis: A Case Study in Sri Lanka, Proc. of the 3rd Coastal, Estuarine and Offshore
Speciality Conference by Canadian Society for Civil Engineering (CSCE), Newfoundland,
Canada. May 27-30, 3, 2009, 1636-1645.

5.

Wickramaratne, S., Ruwanpura, J., & Wirasinghe, S.C., Estimating Probability Density
Functions For Tsunami Evacuation Activity Durations From Expert Panel Interviews,
Proc. of the 2nd WFEO-JFES-JSCE Joint International Symposium on Disaster Risk
Management*, Sendai, Japan: Sep 11,2008, 136-139.
*Initial version of this paper was published in the Proc. of the International Symposium:
International Institute for Infrastructure Renewal and Reconstruction (IIIRR),
University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada. April 10-11.

Thesis
Wickramaratne, S., Design and Planning of Tsunami Warning and Evacuation Systems,
PhD thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, 2010 (Supervisor:
Dr. S.C. Wirasinghe, Co-supervisor: Dr. J. Ruwanpura)
Abstract Reviewed Conference Papers
1.

1.

Wickramaratne, S., Ruwanpura, J.Y., & Wirasinghe, S.C., Network Modelling for
Reliability Assessment of Tsunami Warning and Evacuation Systems, Proc. of the

International Conference on Disaster Mitigation (ICDM), Institute of Infrastructure

Renewal and Reconstruction (IIIRR), University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, Nov
15-16, 2010.
2.

Wickramaratne, S., Ruwanpura, J.Y., & Wirasinghe, S.C., Tsunami Mitigation Planning
For Sri Lanka A Decision Theoretic Approach, Proc. of the International Conference on
Disaster Mitigation (ICDM), Institute of Infrastructure Renewal and Reconstruction
(IIIRR), University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, Nov 15-16, 2010.

3.

Wickramaratne, S., Ruwanpura, J.Y., & Wirasinghe, S.C., Failure Modelling of Tsunami
Warning and Evacuation Systems, Proc. of the International Conference on Disaster
Mitigation (ICDM), Institute of Infrastructure Renewal and Reconstruction (IIIRR),
University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, Nov 15-16, 2010.

4.

Wickramaratne, S., Ruwanpura, J.Y., & Wirasinghe, S.C., Estimation of Probability

Density Functions for Disaster Mitigation Activities, Proc. of the International Conference
on Mitigation of the Risk of Natural Hazards, Ahungalla, Sri Lanka, July 2-4, 2009.

5.

Ruwanpura, J.Y., Wirasinghe, S.C., Wickramaratne, S., & Ranasinghe, U. , Formulation

of a Pro-active Planning Model to Mitigate the Impact of the Most Vulnerable
Hazards/Disasters in Sri Lanka, Proc. of the International Conference on Mitigation of
the Risk of Natural Hazards, Ahungalla, Sri Lanka, July 2-4, 2009.

6.

Weerasinghe, I.P.T., Ruwanpura, J.Y., & Wickramaratne, S., The Level of Recoverability
of Tsunami Affected People In Sri Lanka After a Period of Two Years, Proc. of the
International Symposium, International Institute for Infrastructure Renewal and
Reconstruction (IIIRR), University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada, April 10-11, 2008.

7.

Ruwanpura, J.Y., Wickramaratne, S., Braun, A., Hettiarachchi, S.S.L. & Wirasinghe, S.C.,
Analysis and Comparison of Tsunami Warning Systems for Sri Lanka, Proc. of the
International Conference on Mitigation of the Risk of Natural Hazards, Faculty of
Engineering, University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka, March 27-28, 2007.