World Applied Programming, Vol (3), Issue (9), September 2013.

427-431
ISSN: 2222-2510
2013 WAP journal. www.tijournals.com

Position of the Futures Study Approach in Earthquake

Response Planning in City District Areas
Kaveh Faridmohajer
University of Tehran,
Tehran, Iran
K.Faridmohajer@gmail.com

Saeed Givehchi
University of Tehran,
Tehran, Iran
Givehchi1@gmail.com

Babak Omidvar

Saeed Khazaee

University of Tehran,
Tehran, Iran
bomidvar@ut.ac.ir

University of Tehran,
Tehran, Iran
saeedkhazaee@ymail.com

Abstract: Since earthquakes are unpredictable, so the only way to combat the adverse effects of the disaster is
to plan to manage the consequences of it. One of the phases of disaster management is phase response which
this article is to be paid for foresight in planning for disaster response. This approach is achieved through the
analysis and descriptive method to answer the questions of; 1) whether planning based on foresight methods can
be done to increase the efficiency of planning in order to help respond to disasters?, 2) Are the designed
scenarios capable to alter the management practices and the organizations involved in disaster response to
earthquake or not? Finally, the importance of foresight in planning for earthquake response is emphasize.
Keywords: Earthquake, Planning, Response, Foresight
I.

INTRODUCTION

As the earthquake disasters are among those that are impossible to predict, so the only way to combat the harmful
consequences of this phenomenon are to be prepared for lowering the losses and damages caused by the occurrence of
this calamity. One of the stages of the disaster management is that of the response phase which if pondered wisely, it can
remarkably help to reduce the effects of the earthquake. It seems that capability of the organizations involved in the
response to the earthquake disaster in order to combat the many effects of earthquakes is highly appreciable in lowering
the losses. This paper tries to clarify the importance of foresight in planning the response to the earthquake disaster, so
after addressing planning sections in respond to the earthquake disaster, the Scenario Writing, scenario planning, trends
and drivers of target area change, the scenario-based planning is discussed and finally the need of foresight in planning
the response to the earthquake disaster is considered.

II.

MATERIAS AND METHODOLOGY

II.1 Research Questions

1. Can planning based on foresight methods help to increase efficiency of specific procedures designed in response to
quake disaster?
2. Are the designed scenarios capable to alter the management practices and the organizations involved in disaster
response to earthquake or not?
II.2 Methodology
In this paper, after studying the resources associated with the earthquake disaster response, the elements associated with
these plans were reviewed and the required fields (human and physical) in order to scheduling time of the earthquake
were determined. Then the methods of foresight and planning the future of foresight in the planning were considered. In
addition, in order to assess and meet the required fields for earthquake disaster response planning, analytical and
descriptive method was used to understand the place of the future of foresight science in the wake of the earthquake
disaster response planning.
III.

THEORETICAL BASICS

III.1 Earthquake Response Planning

Earthquake occurrence impacts various parts of urban infrastructure (hardware devices) such as roads, buildings as well
as human society. Thus, Response to earthquake disaster may include much diverse functionality such as transportations,

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communications, public works and engineering, firefighting, information and planning, mass care, resource support,
health and medical, search and rescue, hazardous materials, military support, public information, volunteers and
donations, law enforcement and security, animal protection, loss estimation. So, in the target area intended to the
earthquake disaster response planning factors associated with adverse effects on the seismic performance should be
listed. This list includes: Path blocked by rubble, interrupted communications and communications systems, the number
of fires and their scope, The number of people requiring hospitalization, outpatient treatment, requiring the creation of a
possible disease outbreak, detonation of explosives and poisonous ones, severed vital arteries supply of water and
energy, Individuals require public notification and gathering place for residents of distributed resources and the number
of security forces for civilian traffic control. Thus, the first step in planning a response to the earthquake disaster has
several departments that are experiencing the adverse effects of the earthquake which all should be determined during
the target time. It should be noted that in this article, the target time refers to significant changes in risk factors such as
population, number of commercial office buildings, ways of communication in order to plan disaster response plan has
been developed in the area.
III.2 Scenario Generating
Scenario Generating is one of the tools of foresight and planning in order to create a clear picture of the situation, the
scenario can be utilized. At first to create the scenario, the planning processes and driving change in response to the
earthquake disaster will be discussed. Damage assessment tools are then used to determine the results in the area of the
earthquake is attempted. It is worth noting that in this paper the concept of future of planning in response to the
earthquake disaster is not a given future at a specified time, but all the times and trends that are driving change in the
circumstances which have caused the earthquake effects will vary with time and this is the fact that the disaster response
planning based on foresight methods versus conventional earthquake disaster response planning.
III.3 Scenario Based Planning
Planning methods are based on a desired future .While planning ahead is a plausible and realistic scenario with regard to
the planning scheme. To plan based on Scenario, the trends and changes in the estimated driving conditions of the target
area are addressed (See figure 1 and 2). This type of community involvement in planning the response to the earthquake
disaster is an organizational learning and greater confidence in the success of designed plan.

Figure 1. Usual Planning Method

Figure 2. Discovery Necessary Measures Process

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III.4 Drivers and Trends

Drivers are the factors that will change the current situation and trends, current changes in the region, in terms of both
physical and human terms. Thus, we review them to detect and estimate future. Since earthquakes are unpredictable and
may occur at different times, so a single planning to run at a different time can be useless, for instance, Population of an
area is changing so planning for this population to respond to the earthquake disaster, at different times, may vary. Therefore,
the changes in current trends and propulsion must be investigate at different time and earthquake disaster response
planning must change according to various time intervals and examined at intervals occur in the area. For example, the
population of the planning area in the next 10 years will be different from its population in 20 years. Therefore the
response to the earthquake disaster in the target region in 2 target times will vary according to the changes occurred.
IV.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Considering the aforementioned facets, In order to efficiently respond to disasters earthquake planning, detailed
scenarios are needed to determine the target time of the earthquake. To set the exact scenarios, the need to be aware of
the changes over time in the target area will be planned because the new conditions after the earthquake will lead to
different results. We need to be aware of the trends and driving and these trends and drivers are different based on
different basins (human and physical) encompassing earthquake. Therefore, each section must be evaluated and the
pertinent results get determined. The following table presents some of the factors and trends included.
Table 1. Some of Trends and Factors of change (Authors)
Factors

Trends

Citizens' awareness of earthquake disaster response

Rate of population increase and decrease

Social and economic factors

Migration rate

The advancement of technology

Land Use

Changes in laws and policies

Value of land and housing

Entry and expansion of the private sector in the field of

disaster management

Lifeline and buildings aging

Drivers and trends that are changing the future knowing them will lead to a more accurate scenario. To achieve this
drivers and trends, the must-considered foresight methods such as ancient Delphi method as well as driving analysis are
in hand and then, to determine the conditions of the study area in order to respond to disaster planning will be discussed.
After exploring the alteration in various times by determining the various targets, the situations of target area to respond
the quake disaster are determined. In this stage, with combination of occurrence of quake with target time circumstances,
the end projection conditions will be discussed. In order to combine the two, one can take advantage of applications such
as GIS software and analysis techniques to assess the estimation of damages and losses of earthquake. The organizations
involved in the response to the earthquake disaster will reach to reliable assumptions (such as the number of damaged
buildings or injuries requiring hospitalization) which can base on these investigate and provide scenarios in order to
guess the probable incidence in time of earthquake. Thus, a clear picture of the effects of these and other circumstances
that could arise and will be consistently achieved.
V. CONCLUSION
As mentioned in the previous section, organizations involved in the earthquake disaster response requires foresight
methods in order to discover trends and driving change in the target population are utilized. After discovering future
trends and driving conditions change, the estimation of upcoming conditions of target society is mandatory. Combining
these conditions with earthquake reasonable assumptions we arrive to logical assumptions and based on these
assumptions, realistic scenarios are set in undoubtedly. After creating these scenarios agencies involved in the response
to the earthquake disaster can benefit from organizational learning and this is the result of the foresight approach to
disaster response planning. Given the estimate of the time to examine the results of the earthquake disaster in the region
is discussed and developed further assumptions are reasonable. After compiling these assumptions, scenarios are set.
According to this approach, foresight in planning the response to the earthquake disaster is organizational learning. The
organizations involved in the response to the earthquake disaster scenarios set of challenges that are able to recognize

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them and will possible face them. In this situation two approaches meet these organizations: 1. Try changing trends (eg
migration of citizens to change the purpose of construction or planned in response to the earthquake disaster). 2. Trying
to deal with the results of the changes in the preparation and planning (For example, increasing the number of relay
stations and the expansion of the area of fire). Accordingly, more logical and more realistic targets will be conceived.
Figure 3 illustrates the process of planning based on foresight.

Figure 2. Earthquake Response Planning Process with Foresight Approach (Authors)

So the answer to the first question is whether research-based planning methods to increase the efficiency of planning and
foresight can help to respond to the earthquake disaster? Yes should be mentioned because; 1. Organizations to discover
trends and changing driving conditions discovered during the planning process so that they will encounter in the future,
are notified. 2. Using lighting scenarios to create a clear picture of the events that occur during an earthquake at the time
is obtained. Thus, organizations can plan for what they will encounter. It should be noted that the scenarios for the
different time can vary. While the target is stationary, the changes caused by different conditions are different timescales.
An example of the population of a specific area in next 5 years will be different to 10 years and 20 years later, so the
scenario associated with the earthquake will be different at these times. The second question is whether the design could
change scenarios, and the management practices of organizations involved in the response to the earthquake disaster, or
not? Mention must be yes, because the organizations involved in the response to the earthquake disaster will benefit from
organizational learning. Changes in estimates of foresight methods developed by the quake are reasonable scenarios.
Scenario is clear and largely accurate picture of what will happen will get. Thus, organizations may need to change their
policies prior planning. Terms of infrastructure (roads, water and electricity networks, buildings, etc.) and human
(population, age, sick and disabled, etc.) are changing. Thus, it can be noted that the planned response to the earthquake
disaster in the long run will not work without regard to the future of foresight and it is necessary to note that due to the
impossibility of predicting the time of the earthquake, the time for planning long-term response to the disaster. For
example, the 5-year interval, 10 years old, 20 years old at the time of any possible changes (for example, For example,
the number of disabled patients who require care in emergency accommodation, the number of deaths due to such factors
as population, infrastructure requirements, such as refueling network and the probability and extent of fires varies) to the
plan must be carried out in response to the earthquake disaster.

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