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CONTACT INFORMATION
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news websites and published reports). Madar Research cannot be held responsible for any inaccuracy in the information
and data thus gathered which might have affected the analyses and conclusions in this report. Accordingly, Madar
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otherwise that may incur as a result of pursuing the recommendations and acting according to the findings of this report.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
V E R V I E W
.......................................................................................................................4
A N A L Y S I S O F M A J O R T R E N D S ......................................................................9
M OB I L E P H O N E S U BS CR I PTI O N S ..............................................................................................9
F I X E D L I N E S U B S CR I PT I O N S .................................................................................................... 14
M O B I L E - T O - F I X E D - L I N E S U B S C R I B E R S ............................................................................. 19
I N T E R N E T U S E R S ...................................................................................................................20
C O M P U T E R I N S T A L L E D B A S E ..............................................................................................23
I N D E P E N D E N T R E G U L A T O R Y A U T H O R I T I E S A N D L I B E R A L I Z A T I O N ................................26
C O U N T R Y I C T P R O F I L E S ................................................................................28
I C T P E N E T R A T I O N I N G C C - 2 0 0 8 ...................................................................................28
B A H R A I N : ...........................................................................................................................29
K U W A I T .............................................................................................................................. 31
O M A N .................................................................................................................................33
Q A T A R ................................................................................................................................36
S A U D I A R A B I A ..................................................................................................................38
U N I T E D A R A B E M I R A T E S .................................................................................................42
G C C B R O A D B A N D P E N E T R A T I O N ...................................................................................45
I C T P E N E T R A T I O N I N L E V A N T 2 0 0 8 .............................................................................47
E G Y P T .................................................................................................................................47
I R A Q ....................................................................................................................................50
J O R D A N ..............................................................................................................................52
L E B A N O N ............................................................................................................................54
P A L E S T I N E ..........................................................................................................................56
S Y R I A ..................................................................................................................................58
I C T P E N E T R A T I O N N O R T H A F R I C A - 2 0 0 8 ....................................................................... 61
A L G E R I A .............................................................................................................................62
L I B Y A ..................................................................................................................................65
M O R O C C O ..........................................................................................................................67
T U N I S I A ..............................................................................................................................70
O T H E R A R A B C O U N T R I E S .................................................................................................... 72
S U D A N ................................................................................................................................ 72
Y E M E N ................................................................................................................................75
A P P E N D I X ...................................................................................................................... 77
A C T I V E M O B I L E P H O N E O P E R A T O R S I N T H E M E N A R E G I O N ........................................ 77
A C T I V E F I X E D L I N E O P E R A T O R S I N T H E M E N A R E G I O N ...............................................78
P O P U L A T I O N Q U E S T I O N & I T S I M P A C T O N G C C P E R F O R M A N C E I N D I C A T O R s......... 80
Mobile Subscribers
2008
Fixed lines
Internet Users
PC Installed Base
The country with the highest fixed line penetration, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), topped
the 2008 index, with a score of 2.39. The UAE was among the top five for almost all the ICT
sectors. Industry analysts, however, predict the economic slowdown (or recession) and low oil
prices to lead to a sharp decrease in UAEs population growth in coming years, thus shrinking
mobile subscriber base. Regardless of the economic slowdown or the decline in transient
labor population analysts believe that subscribers growth should come from business visitors,
4
COUNTRY
POPULATION
MOBILE PHONE
SUBSCRIPTIONS
UAE
7,338,140
Bahrain
Qatar
Saudi
Arabia
Kuwait
SUBSCRIPTIONS
INTERNET
USERS
PC INSTALLED
BASE
INDEX
10,079,000
1,640,000
3,353,600
2,475,451
2.39
1,156,114
1,453,000
220,386
435,600
407,100
2.18
1,553,729
1,946,343
263,363
592,200
498,080
2.12
25,239,067
36,059,212
4,123,000
7,936,000
4,755,392
2.09
3,441,813
3,382,733
547,111
1,272,433
1,021,614
1.81
6
7
8
Libya
Oman
Jordan
6,357,000
7,250,000
910,000
966,000
729,675
1.55
3,013,184
3,219,865
274,178
540,150
416,000
1.48
5,850,000
5,438,000
519,000
1,441,000
814,660
1.40
Tunisia
10,377,200
8,411,630
1,239,000
2,066,628
902,521
1.22
10
Algeria
34,634,000
27,031,474
3,687,603
3,965,000
2,000,700
1.06
11
Morocco
31,345,356
22,816,000
2,991,185
4,200,000
1,904,000
1.02
12
Egypt
76,054,000
44,526,000
11,900,000
12,570,000
4,295,590
0.96
13
Lebanon
4,209,000
1,436,000
527,500
1,196,800
674,360
0.91
14
Syria
19,880,423
7,789,563
3,633,400
3,432,000
1,430,000
0.82
15
Iraq
30,581,365
18,287,470
1,755,000
3,084,500
1,337,050
0.80
16
Palestine
4,212,000
2,022,163
357,000
596,700
210,993
0.76
17
Yemen
23,248,500
6,059,000
1,337,122
1,570,800
592,551
0.41
18
Sudan
41,810,000
11,437,000
356,500
3,479,000
1,292,562
0.40
330,300,890
218,644,453
36,281,348
52,698,411
25,758,299
1.01
TOTAL
FIXED LINE
ICT
Coming in second place, Bahrain scored an overall 2.18% on the 2008 Arab ICT Use Index,
compared to 2007 a huge climb from its score of 1.78 in 2007. Bahrain boasts the Middle
Easts most liberal and advance information and communication technology infrastructure
and policies. Partly due to efforts by Bahrains TRA (Telecommunication Regulatory
Authority), the country has the highest computer installed base in the MENA region and the
third highest Internet user penetration rate of 37.685. In an effort to provide reliable
broadband services to its end users, the TRA in Bahrain recently signed an agreement with
Epitiro to continually perform measurements and assessments of its broadband services.
Through this quality assessment, the TRA is aiming to provide the consumer with information
on Internet quality of services to assist in their choice of provider. Fixed line penetration
5
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Yemen
Sudan
Lebanon
Syria
Palestine
Egypt
Iraq
Morocco
Algeria
Tu nisia
Jordan
Kuwait
Oman
Libya
Qatar
Bahrain
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Mobile Penetration
Fixedline Penetration
In third place, Qatars overall score of 2.12 (from 1.70) on the 2008 Arab ICT Use Index also
represents a significant rise over its 2007 score. Qatars Qtel still holds a monopoly on the
countrys fixed line, mobile and Internet services. Although Vodafone Qatar (a consortium
made up of Vodafone Europe and the Qatar Foundation) is the second entrant to Qtels 22year monopoly over the telecom market, it hasnt yet began full operations in Qatar. It has so
far only initiated test operations, gradually powering up the first 1,000 customers. According
to recent reports, Vodafone Qatar was scheduled to launch services in March 2009 but this
was put back to June, with the Supreme Council for Information and Communication
Technology (ictQatar) revising the terms of Vodafones licensing agreement in April, giving it
until September 1 to establish coverage over 98% of the country. Qtels Nawaras had also
been granted a first-class fixed-line license for a 25-year term by the government of Oman.
Qatar ranked third overall behind the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in computer
penetration in the MENA region, with a penetration rate of 32.06%. Meanwhile, it ranked
second in Internet penetration (38.11%) and fixed line penetration (16.95%). Qatars mobile
phone penetration of 125.27% ranked it fourth in the Arab world in 2008.
Saudi Arabia held fourth place on the 2008 index, with an overall score of 2.09, a 0.43 point
above its 2007 score of 1.66. Its rank on the index is buttressed mainly by the countrys high
mobile phone penetration (142.87%) which ranked it first in the MENA region as a regional
telecom war heats up and the telecom providers are under intense pressure to improve
profitability, with huge rivals like STC, Kuwait's Zain and Emirates Telecommunications
competing in the region. Mobily, STC's most serious rival, recently posted a 50 percent rise in
second-quarter net profit over STC 22% profit drop in second-quarter profit, citing foreign
expansion costs and higher roaming fees had hurt profitability. Saudi Arabia ranked fourth in
the Arab world on fixed line penetration (17.38%), and fifth on Internet penetration (31.44%)
and computer penetration (18.84%). A number of Saudi Telecom providers are considering
reducing the charges by almost 70 percent as they seek to increase the number of users.
Growth Rate
60%
40%
20%
0%
Algeria
Tunisia
Morocco
Jordan
Palestine
Sudan
Lebanon
Syria
Mobile Growth
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Oman
Bah rain
Egypt
Libya
Iraq
Yemen
-40%
Qatar
-20%
Fixedline Growth
Although GCC countries dominated the Arab ICT Use Index by occupying the top five
positions, they did not make the MENA regions list of countries with the highest growth
rates, except for Qatar registering the highest growth rate in mobile subscribers. That
privilege went to a selection of other MENA economies, which have largely underdeveloped
ICT markets where growth tends to be more visible. Libya achieved an impressive 75.76%
growth in the number of fixed line subscriptions in 2008 the strongest in the Arab world
followed by Yemen and Iraq with 30.84% and 25.36% growth, respectively. Growth in mobile
subscriptions was highest in Qatar at 54.47%. In 2008, countries like Lebanon, Jordan and
Tunisia registered negative fixed line growth. Iraq had the highest growth rate in the region
for Internet users and computer installed base, at 55% and 43%, third highest growth rate in
the region both in terms of mobile and fixed lines rising at 43.13% and 25.36%, while Yemen
registered the regions second highest growth rate in the fixed line and mobile segment, at
47.53% and 30.84%, respectively. As the case in Yemen, Moroccos competitive fixed line
service provider market helped drive growth in the sector, at 24.96%. Growth in the Internet
user market in 2008 was dominated by Egypt (45.82%), Syria (43%) and Sudan (42%), while
the top three positions in computer installed base growth went to Iraq (43%), Qatar (41.5%)
and Libya (41%).
RANK
36,059,212
10,079,000
1,453,000
1,946,343
7,250,000
3,219,865
3,382,733
5,438,000
142.87%
137.35%
125.68%
125.27%
114.05%
106.86%
98.28%
92.96%
10,377,200
34,634,000
31,345,356
30,581,365
8,411,630
27,031,474
22,816,000
18,287,470
81.06%
78.05%
72.79%
59.80%
Lebanon
76,054,000
4,212,000
19,880,423
4,209,000
44,526,000
2,022,163
7,789,563
1,436,000
58.55%
48.01%
39.18%
34.12%
17
Sudan
41,810,000
11,437,000
27.35%
18
Yemen
23,248,500
6,059,000
26.06%
330,300,890
218,644,453
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Bahrain
Qatar
Libya
Oman
7
8
Kuwait
Jordan
Tunisia
10
Algeria
11
Morocco
12
Iraq
13
Egypt
14
Palestine
15
Syria
16
TOTAL
66.20%
Source: Madar Research
Six countries in the region had penetration levels well over 100%. By 2008 all countries in the
region (except Qatar) had at least two mobile phone operators. By year end 2008, less than 22
months after starting operations, the United Arab Emirates second mobile phone operator,
Du, registered 2,779,000 subscribers, compared to Etisalats 7,300,000 subscribers. This
strong growth in subscriber base has resulted in higher revenue for the company and has
helped to capture substantial market share from the former incumbent, Etisalat, bringing the
total number of mobile phone subscribers in the country to 10,079,000. The figure represents
a feeble growth for the operators in 2008 at 28.04% over the previous years 42.61%, ranking
8th on the growth index among Arab countries. Meanwhile, mobile phone penetration rose to
137.4%, the second highest rate in the MENA region for the year, up from the 131.64% in
RANK
1,946,343
6,059,000
18,287,470
7,250,000
44,526,000
1,453,000
3,219,865
10,079,000
54.47%
47.53%
43.13%
42.02%
41.13%
30.20%
28.79%
28.04%
28,400,041
2,773,688
6,451,104
1,216,000
36,059,212
3,382,733
7,789,563
1,436,000
26.97%
21.96%
20.75%
18.09%
Morocco
9,860,474
1,744,600
4,772,000
20,029,000
11,437,000
2,022,163
5,438,000
22,816,000
15.99%
15.91%
13.96%
13.91%
17
Tunisia
7,842,619
8,411,630
7.26%
18
Algeria
25,500,000
27,031,474
6.01%
174,877,340
218,644,453
Qatar
Yemen
Iraq
Libya
Egypt
Bahrain
7
8
Oman
UAE
Saudi Arabia
10
Kuwait
11
Syria
12
Lebanon
13
Sudan
14
Palestine
15
Jordan
16
TOTAL
25.03%
Source: Madar Research
Total mobile phone subscriptions in the MENA region numbered 218,644,453 in 2008,
marking a growth rate of 25.03%, from 174,877,340 subscriptions in 2007 which
represented a growth of 40.51% over 2006. Qatar registered the highest growth in the Arab
world (54.47%) in terms of subscription in 2008, followed by Yemen (47.53%) and Iraq
(43.13%). In terms of mobile penetration, the figures showed that Saudi Arabia had the
highest penetration of 142.87%, followed by UAE and Bahrain at 137.35% and 125.68%,
respectively.
Similar to the UAE, the launch of a new mobile phone operator in Egypt had stimulated the
market greatly, with Etisalat Misr registering 6,800,000 subscriptions by end 2008. The
countrys two existing mobile phone service providers recorded a combined growth of 32.6%
10
11
BY
REGION, 2007-2008
MOBILE PHONE
SUBSCRIPTIONS 2007
MOBILE PHONE
SUBSCRIPTIONS 2008
GROWTH
(%)
58,511,330
43,921,844
58,476,692
13,967,474
174,877,340
79,499,196
56,140,153
65,509,104
17,496,000
218,644,453
35.87%
27.82%
12.03%
25.26%
25.03%
Source: Madar Research
12
36.36%
25.12%
25.68%
33.46%
Levant
GCC
North Africa
29.96%
8%
33.44%
7.99%
Levant
GCC
North Africa
Levant countries grew by a sluggish 35.87% from the 50.21% in 2007 to register 20,987,866
new mobile phone subscriptions and bring the total base to 79,499,196 by year end 2008,
against 58,511,330 in 2007. Meanwhile, GCC countries registered 56,140,153 mobile phones
subscriptions, compared to 43,921,844 subscriptions in 2007 down to a slower 27.8% over
end 2007 figures (40.04% growth in 2007). North Africa witnessed the slowest growth in the
sector, with growth in mobile phone subscriptions at only 12.03% in 2008, way down from
26.85% in 2007. As in North Africa growth rates in Sudan and Yemen were low; 25.3% was the
combined growth rate in these two countries, a huge drop from the 78.09% growth
experienced in 2007.
Unlike 2007, which had only the Jordanian mobile market comprising of 4 mobile service
providers, 2008 consisted of two additional countries which were also considered the most
competitive in the MENA region. Competition among mobile operators is also unique in these
regions and would depend on factors like regulatory environment, demand, tariffs and
geography, coverage and promotional approaches. Saudi Arabia and Yemen have four active
operators, followed by Algeria, Iraq, Sudan, Egypt, Morocco and Kuwait, with three mobile
operators each. All other MENA countries have two active operators, barring Palestine and
Qatar, each of which only had one.
Active Mobile Phone Operators 2008
4
4
3
3
2
3
2
2
1
PALESTINE
QATAR
UAE
TUNISIA
SYRIA
OMAN
MOROCCO
LIBYA
LEBANON
KUWAIT
BAHRAIN
EGYPT
YEMEN
SAUDI
ARABIA
IRAQ
ALGERIA
SUDAN
JORDAN
13
RANK
UAE
Bahrain
Syria
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
7
8
Egypt
Libya
Lebanon
10
Tunisia
11
Algeria
12
Morocco
13
Oman
14
Jordan
15
Palestine
16
Yemen
17
Iraq
18
Sudan
TOTAL
7,338,140
1,156,114
19,880,423
1,553,729
25,239,067
3,441,813
76,054,000
6,357,000
4,209,000
10,377,200
34,634,000
31,345,356
3,013,184
1,640,000
220,386
3,633,400
263,363
4,123,000
547,111
11,900,000
910,000
527,500
1,239,000
3,687,603
2,991,185
5,850,000
4,212,000
23,248,500
274,178
519,000
357,000
1,337,122
30,581,365
41,810,000
330,300,890
1,755,000
356,500
36,658,348
22.35%
19.06%
18.28%
16.95%
16.34%
15.90%
15.65%
14.31%
12.53%
11.94%
10.65%
9.54%
9.10%
8.87%
8.48%
5.75%
5.74%
0.85%
11%
Source: Madar Research
The number of fixed-line subscriptions in the 18 MENA economies totaled 36,658,348 in 2008,
up from 32,824,645 subscriptions in 2007. Growth in the fixed line sector has become
stagnant in some economies and is growing at a slow pace. Compared to 2007s 9.7% 2008
witnessed an overall growth of 11.38% in the region. Fixed line penetration within the 18
economies stood at about 11%. The most recent growth can be seen to have taken place
among emerging markets with high population and relatively low penetration rates.
Libya had the fastest growth rate in the MENA Region, with 75.76% compared to the 2.20% of
2007. Subscription for fixed lines in this country was 910,000 in 2008, which is 392,250 more
subscribers than in the previous year. Libyas penetration rate however remains low, with
14.31%, ranking the country 8th on the penetration scale for the MENA region.
Telecommunications infrastructure development in Libya is the responsibility of the stateowned GPTC, which was set up in 1984. GPTC oversees the operation of fixed and mobile
lines, as well as Libyas Internet service providers (ISPs). GPTC has expanded landline coverage
to several parts of the country, although according to certain reports the quality of its
infrastructure and service needs significant enhancement. Improving network performance
14
RANK
Libya
Yemen
Iraq
Morocco
Algeria
UAE
7
8
Egypt
Qatar
Bahrain
10
Kuwait
11
Syria
12
Sudan
13
Saudi Arabia
14
Oman
15
75.76%
30.84%
25.36%
24.96%
20.18%
19.62%
9.17%
8.83%
517,750
1,021,988
1,400,000
2,393,767
3,068,409
910,000
1,337,122
1,755,000
2,991,185
3,687,603
1,371,000
10,900,000
1,640,000
11,900,000
242,000
203,500
517,300
3,450,000
263,363
220,386
547,111
3,633,400
Palestine
345,200
4,000,000
268,065
350,442
356,500
4,123,000
274,178
357,000
16
Tunisia
1,273,000
1,239,000
3.08%
2.28%
1.87%
-2.67%
17
Jordan
559,000
519,000
-7.16%
18
Lebanon
TOTAL
693,000
32,574,421
527,500
36,281,348
-23.88%
11.38%
8.30%
5.76%
5.32%
3.27%
Yemen also demonstrated strong growth in 2008. It stood second on the Arab regions fixedline growth rate index, at 30.84% compared to the 5.54% of 2007. According to some industry
analysis reports, this growth is expected to be mainly through the PTC's (Public
Telecommunications Corporation) efforts to provide fixed line services in most rural areas of
Yemen. The government of Yemen fully owns and directly oversees the operations of the
monopoly fixed line operator, Public Telecommunications Corporation (PTC), and owns a
controlling stake in the CDMA cellular operator, Yemen Mobile, through the PTC. However,
Yemen had the lowest fixed line penetration rate compared to other Arab countries.
Moroccos fixed telephony market achieved an annual increase of 25% in subscribers, with a
total of 2.991 million lines in service as of December 31, 2008 (including services with
restricted mobility, the majority of which are provided by Wana). In January 2007, the
15
Wireless local loop (WLL) is a system that connects subscribers to the local telephone station wirelessly rather than through copper wires. It
is used as the "last mile / first mile" connection for delivering plain old telephone service (POTS) and/or broadband Internet to
telecommunications customers.
16
17
BY
REGION, 2007-2008
GROWTH
(%)
17,352,442
6,601,865
7,252,926
1,367,188
32,574,421
18,691,900
7,068,038
8,827,788
1,693,622
36,281,348
7.72%
7.06%
21.71%
23.88%
11.38%
LEVANT
GCC
NORTH AFRICA
SUDAN & YEMEN
TOTAL
53.27%
20.27%
4.20%
19.48%
4.67%
24.33%
22.27%
Levant
GCC
North Africa
Levant
GCC
North Africa
Gulf Cooperation Council countries accounted for 7,068,038 subscriptions in 2008, growing at
a rate of 7.06%. The regions growth rate in 2007 was a lower 2.46%, indicating that growth
remains unchanged and the fixed-line sector is not stagnating with in some of the GCC regions
and may also witness a steady growth in the coming years. Fixed line subscriptions in the
Levant grew by 7.72% to 18,691,900 subscriptions indicating the fixed line market is nearing
saturation among this region with growth slowing down consistently year after year, while
North Africas 2008 fixed line subscriptions dropped by 1.6% to yield 21.71% compared to
23.31% growth in 2007. The highest growth in this sector was attained by the emerging
markets of Sudan and Yemen at 23.88%.
18
MOBILE-TO-FIXED LINE
SUBSCRIBERS, 2007-2008
(RANKED BY RATIO)
RANK COUNTRY
2008
2007
Sudan
32.08
16.99
Oman
11.74
8.98
Jordan
10.48
9.86
Iraq
10.42
5.36
Saudi Arabia
8.75
8.54
6
7
8
Libya
Morocco
Qatar
7.97
7.63
7.39
7.10
5.21
5.48
Algeria
7.33
8.37
10
Tunisia
6.79
5.68
11
Bahrain
6.59
9.13
12
Kuwait
6.18
4.98
13
UAE
6.15
6.16
14
Palestine
5.66
4.02
15
Yemen
4.53
2.62
16
Egypt
3.74
9.33
17
Lebanon
2.72
1.75
18
Syria
2.14
1.87
6.03
5.23
TOTAL
Bahrain
Qatar
Palestine
Oman
Kuwait
Jordan
Yemen
Libya
Syria
Tunisia
UAE
Sudan
Iraq
Morocco
Algeria
Saudi Arabia
Egypt
Mobile
FixedLin es
19
INTERNET USERS
The total number of Internet users in the 18
Arab economies under study is rising quickly.
Annual growth rate are of the order of 20%
and sometimes as high as 30%. Internet users
from the 18 Arab countries in 2008 was
52,698,411, rising at a rate of 33.76% over
the 2007 figure of 39,408,690. The most
recent and highest growth rates are taking
place in emerging markets with high
population and relatively low penetration
rates.
Internet user growth is being driven by steady
progress shown in traditionally lowpenetrated countries, such as Iraq, Egypt and
Syria, there is also considerable gap between
countries with UAE at the high end and
Yemen at the low end. Considering the
compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of
61.8% for the past 4 years, Iraq registered the
strongest growth in Internet users in 2008, at
55% for a total of 3,084,500 users. Egypt
ranked second in terms of growth, with
Internet users rising by a 45.82% to register
12,570,000 by end 2008. In third place in the
MENA region in terms of growth, Syria
recorded 43% growth in Internet users from
2,400,000 in 2007 to 3,432,000.
RANK
Iraq
Egypt
Syria
Sudan
Qatar
Yemen
7
8
Oman
Bahrain
UAE
10
Jordan
11
Algeria
12
14
Lebanon
Saudi
Arabia
Kuwait
15
Tunisia
16
Libya
17
Morocco
18
Palestine
TOTAL
13
3,084,500
12,570,000
3,432,000
3,479,000
592,200
55.00%
45.82%
43.00%
42.00%
41.00%
1,570,800
540,150
435,600
3,353,600
40.00%
38.50%
32.00%
31.00%
1,441,000
3,965,000
1,196,800
31.00%
30.00%
28.00%
7,936,000
1,272,433
24.00%
21.18%
2,066,628
966,000
20.00%
20.00%
4,200,000
596,700
52,698,411
20.00%
8.00%
33.76%
20
UAE
3,353,600
45.70%
Qatar
592,200
38.11%
Bahrain
435,600
37.68%
1,272,433
36.97%
7,936,000
31.44%
6
7
8
Kuwait
Saudi
Arabia
Lebanon
Jordan
Tunisia
1,196,800
1,441,000
2,066,628
28.43%
24.63%
19.92%
Oman
540,150
17.93%
10
Syria
3,432,000
17.26%
11
Egypt
12,570,000
16.53%
12
Libya
966,000
15.20%
13
Palestine
596,700
14.17%
14
Morocco
4,200,000
13.40%
15
Algeria
3,965,000
11.45%
16
Iraq
3,084,500
10.09%
17
Sudan
3,479,000
8.32%
18
Yemen
1,570,800
6.76%
52,698,411
TOTAL
15.95
Sudan
Iraq
Algeria
Morocco
Palestine
Libya
Egypt
Syria
Oman
Tunisia
Jordan
Lebanon
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Bahrain
Qatar
UAE
21
BY
REGION, 2007-2008
COUNTRY
LEVANT
YEMEN & SUDAN
GCC
NORTH AFRICA
TOTAL
15,597,500
3,572,000
11,150,000
9,077,190
39,408,690
22,321,000
5,049,800
14,129,983
11,197,628
52,698,411
GROWTH
(%)
43.11%
41.37%
26.73%
23.36%
33.76%
Source: Madar Research
22
FOR
ARAB
FOR
ARAB
RANK
COUNTRY
COMPUTER
INSTALLED BASE
GROWTH (%)
RANK
COUNTRY
COMPUTER
INSTALLED BASE
PENETRATION
Iraq
1,337,050
43.00%
Bahrain
407,100
35.21%
Qatar
498,080
41.50%
UAE
2,475,451
33.73%
Libya
729,675
41.00%
Qatar
498,080
32.06%
UAE
2,475,451
39.00%
1,021,614
29.68%
Bahrain
407,100
38.00%
4,755,392
18.84%
Kuwait
1,021,614
2,000,700
38.00%
35.00%
674,360
16.02%
4,755,392
34.00%
7
8
Jordan
Oman
814,660
416,000
13.93%
13.81%
Algeria
Saudi
Arabia
Yemen
Kuwait
Saudi
Arabia
Lebanon
592,551
32.03%
Libya
729,675
11.48%
10
Oman
416,000
30.00%
10
Tunisia
902,521
8.70%
11
Syria
1,430,000
30.00%
11
Syria
1,430,000
7.19%
12
Egypt
4,295,590
30.00%
12
Morocco
1,904,000
6.07%
13
Sudan
1,292,562
19.68%
13
Algeria
2,000,700
5.78%
14
Tunisia
902,521
17.59%
14
Egypt
4,295,590
5.65%
15
Lebanon
674,360
15.00%
15
Palestine
210,993
5.01%
16
Jordan
814,660
15.00%
16
Iraq
1,337,050
4.37%
17
Morocco
Sudan
1,292,562
3.09%
Palestine
12.00%
5.55%
17
18
1,904,000
210,993
18
Yemen
592,551
2.55%
TOTAL
25,758,299
29.65%
TOTAL
25,758,299
7.8%
The computer installed base in MENA economies rose to 29.65% from the 20.88% in 2007 to
reach 25,758,299 from 19,866,800 the year before. Growth in the number of installed
computers achieved to reach heights beyond those of 2007, with 12 countries recording 30%
or more growth on the indicator in 2008. Iraq ranked first in the Arab world in terms of
growth, its computer installed base rising 43% to 1,337,050, followed by Qatar, recorded
41.5% growth in its computer installed base to reach 498,050 computers from 352,000
previously. Libya ranked third with 41% growth followed by UAE (39%) and Bahrain (38%).
Meanwhile Palestine and Morocco recorded the lowest growth rates in the MENA region with
Palestine projecting a single digit growth of 5.5% with 210,993 installed computers in 2008.
Morocco is preceded by Jordan with 814,660 computers and ranking 16th on the index,
registering 15% growth. Tunisia and Lebanon rounded up the bottom five countries, ranking in
14th and 15th place respectively.
Bahrain led the region in terms of computer penetration in 2008, with 35.21% (407,100
computers). However the previous title holder UAE is hot on heels of Bahrain with 33.73%
computer penetration. Qatar ranked third this time pushing Kuwait fourth with 32.06%
23
BY
REGION, 2007-2008
COUNTRY
GROWTH (%)
GCC
9,573,637
8,762,653
5,536,896
1,885,113
25,758,299
7,037,000
6,834,000
4,467,000
1,528,800
19,866,800
36.05%
28.22%
23.95%
23.31%
29.65%
LEVANT
NORTH AFRICA
YEMEN & SUDAN
TOTAL
The Gulf Cooperation Councils computer installed base grew by 36.05%, the fastest growing
region in the Arab world in 2008, followed by Levant countries. The latter recorded 28.22%
growth in its computer installed base (8,762,653), while the North Africa, Yemen and Sudan
recorded fractionally slower growth at 23.95% and 23.31%.
24
RATIO
EGYPT
PALESTINE
SUDAN
YEMEN
2.93
SYRIA
IRAQ
2.4
2.31
TUNISIA
MOROCCO
ALGERIA
JORDAN
2.29
LEBANON
SAUDI ARABIA
UAE
1.77
LIBYA
1.32
OMAN
KUWAIT
QATAR
1.3
1.25
BAHRAIN
1.07
2.83
2.69
2.65
2.21
1.98
1.77
1.67
1.35
1.19
Source: Madar Research
As shown in above table, oil-rich countries like the GCC states as well as Libya performed
better than the others in terms of Internet user-to-PC ratio. For example, there are about 1.07
Internet users per PC in Bahrain compared to about 2.93 Internet users per PC in Egypt.
This data further underscores the widespread use of computers provided by PIACs (public
Internet access centers), libraries and education centers for Internet access in non oil
dependent economies such as Yemen, Sudan, Palestine and Egypt.
It should also be noted that the Egyptian Ministry of Information and Communication
Technology (MICT) has initiated several projects in the past including the "Free Internet" and
the "PC for Every Home." However, based on this data, it appears that these initiatives still fall
short of bringing Egypts Internet user-to-PC ratio on par with those found among the richer
Arab countries.
25
REGULATOR
INDEPENDENT
REGULATORY
AUTHORITY
FIXED LINE
SECTOR
MOBILE
PHONE
SECTOR
INTERNET
SERVICE
PROVISION
BAHRAIN
Autorit de rgulation de la
poste et des
tlcommunications (ARPT)
Telecommunications Regulatory
Authority (TRA)
EGYPT
National Telecommunication
Regulatory Authority (NTRA)
IRAQ
Ministry of Communications
JORDAN
Telecommunications Regulatory
Commission (TRC)
KUWAIT
Ministry of Communications
LEBANON
Telecommunications Regulatory
Authority
Libyan Post
Telecommunications and
Information Technology
Company
Agence Nationale de
Rglementation des
Tlcommunications (ANRT)
OMAN
Telecommunications Regulatory
Authority (TRA) of Oman
PALESTINE
ALGERIA
LIBYA
MOROCCO
QATAR
SAUDI
ARABIA
SUDAN
SYRIA
TUNISIA
UAE
YEMEN
26
27
COUNTRY
1
2
3
UAE
Bahrain
Qatar
Saudi
Arabia
Kuwait
4
5
6
Oman
TOTAL
FIXED LINE
IN
GCC 2008
PENETRATION
MOBILE PHONE
PENETRATION
22.35%
19.06%
16.95%
PENETRATION
COMPUTER
PENETRATION
ICT USE
INDEX
137.35%
125.68%
125.27%
45.70%
37.68%
38.11%
33.73%
35.21%
32.06%
2.39
2.18
2.12
16.34%
15.90%
142.87%
98.28%
31.44%
36.97%
18.84%
29.68%
2.09
9.10%
106.86%
17.93%
13.81%
1.48
2.08
16.93%
134.49%
INTERNET
33.83%
22.94%
1.81
Similar to last year five of the six Gulf Cooperation Council states once again led the MENA
region in the 2008 ICT Use Index, with the UAE taking the top spot on two indicators and the
remaining two were held by Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. The UAE took a commanding lead,
scoring 2.39 on the index, followed by Bahrain (2.18), Qatar (2.12), Saudi Arabia (2.09) and
Kuwait (1.81). With a score of 1.48, Oman placed 6th in the GCC, and 7th in the Arab world
overall. All six countries scored above the 1.00 mark on the ICT Use Index, with the average
score for the region at 2.08 from the 1.70 in 2007. To reiterate, growth is difficult to calculate
for the region and other countries in the Arab world in 2007, given the fact that a number of
indicators for 2006 and 2007 were corrected or adjusted by the service providers, in addition
to major corrections in population figures made by some of the Gulf Cooperation Council
countries in particular.
The Gulf Cooperation Council recorded an average of 134.49% in 2008 an increase of 22.5%
from the 109.78% mobile phone penetration in 2007, with Internet penetration a far second
at 33.83%. Overall computer penetration registered 22.94%, with the lowest penetration
witnessed in the region still recorded in fixed line penetration at 16.93% which was almost
same as the 2007 penetration rate of 16.54%.
28
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
191,553
193,520
194,196
203,500
220,386
649,764
767,103
907,433
1,116,000
1,453,000
544,696
565,103
674,433
668,000
767,000
105,068
202,000
233,000
448,000
686,000
202,500
145,000
228,000
175,000
268,000
225,000
330,000
295,000
435,600
407,100
59.86%
52.79%
47.21%
40.14%
Batelco
Zain
Batelco
Zain
Source: Madar Research
As of December 2007 TRA has issued 152 licenses to 68 companies. Out of these 68
companies, 16 operators currently provide telecommunications services in Bahrain. Bahrain
ranked second overall on the 2008 Arab ICT Use Index, it has also ranked second among GCC
economies and third for mobile phone penetration among MENA economies, behind United
Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The number of mobile phone subscribers has increased quite
steadily since its inception in 2002. Mobile phone subscriptions outnumber fixed lines, at 6.59
mobile subscriptions for every fixed line.
The countrys two dominant mobile operators, Batelco (Bahrain Telecommunications
Company) and Zain (formerly MTC-Vodafone, rebranded in September 2007) saw their total
subscribers reach over 1.4 million in 2008, up 30% from 1.11 million subscribers in 2007. The
countrys mobile phone sector grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.3% over
the period 2004 to 2008. The countrys former telecom monopoly, Batelco, continues to
dominate the market with some 767,000 subscribers in 2008. However, its market share
showed a decline of 7% in 2008, falling from 59.86% to 52.79%, with Zains share rising to
47.21% from 40.14%. The latters subscriber base grew at a phenomenal rate of 53.1% over
end 2008. In December 2008 mobile penetration in Bahrain was calculated to be 125.68%,
29
1,220,163
1,200,000
923,702
1,000,000
800,000
756,268
635,277
600,000
400,000
200,000
131,826
151,165
192,277
232,619
0
2005
2006
Prepaid
2007
2008
Postpaid
KUWAIT
COUNTRY ICT PROFILE KUWAIT
INDICATOR
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
496,973
504,806
517,000
517,300
547,111
2,109,700
2,277,000
2,529,679
2,773,688
3,382,733
1,262,423
847,277
_
590,000
1,331,189
945,811
_
715,000
1,461,000
1,068,679
_
870,000
1,576,000
1,197,688
_
1,050,000
1,769,000
1,313,733
300,000
1,272,433
450,000
510,000
600,000
740,300
1,021,614
52.29%
56.82%
38.84%
43.18%
8.87%
Zain
Wataniya
Zain
Wataniya
Viva
Source: Madar Research
31
OMAN
COUNTRY ICT PROFILE OMAN
INDICATOR
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
246,978
265,237
269,700
268,065
274,178
806,280
1,333,225
1,818,024
2,500,115
3,219,865
806,280
220,000
160,000
1,089,225
244,000
265,000
200,000
1,246,024
572,000
320,000
250,000
1,483,115
1,017,000
390,000
320,000
1,709,000
1,510,865
540,150
416,000
59.32%
53.08%
46.92%
40.68%
Oman Moblie
Nawras
Oman Moblie
Nawras
Source: Madar Research
33
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,206,493
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
324,812
293,622
0
2007
2008
Prepaid
Postpaid
34
QATAR
COUNTRY ICT PROFILE QATAR
INDICATOR
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
190,876
205,386
217,000
242,000
263,363
490,333
716,763
919,773
1,260,000
1,946,343
490,333
135,000
168,000
716,763
220,000
210,000
919,773
304,000
270,000
1,260,000
420,000
352,000
1,946,343
592,200
498,080
36
1,946,343
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,260,000
919,773
1,000,000
500,000
716,763
490,333
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Qatar ranked third among MENA economies on the 2008 Arab ICT Use Index with a score of
2.12. The countrys mobile phone subscriptions witnessed the strongest growth, with
subscriptions growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.2% over the period
from 2004 to 2008, while Internet users grew at a CAGR of 44.72% over the same period and
computer installed base at 31.22%. The slowest growing sector was fixed line subscriptions,
which grew at a CAGR of 8.4% over the period 2004 to 2008.
When it was first established in 1987, Qatar Telecom (Qtel), which is 51% government-owned,
was promised exclusive control of the countrys telecommunications market until 2013, but
the promulgation of a new Telecommunications Law in 2006 has moved up the date
considerably. The law gave the countrys regulator, the Supreme Council for Information and
Communications Technology (ictQATAR), the power to issue new mobile and fixed-line
licenses, and the regulator immediately announced that one of each would be awarded by
end 2007.
Twelve companies pre-qualified for the mobile license by July, including Airtel (ACE
consortium), Verizon (Argos consortium), AT&T, Batelco, Digicel, Etisalat, Jordan Telecom,
Zain (formerly MTC), Orascom Telecom, Omantel-Belgacom (QUIC consortium), Reliance
Telecom and Vodafone (Vodafone Qatar Foundation consortium). Following a second round
of bids, the regulator awarded Qatars second mobile phone license to the Vodafone and
Qatar Foundation consortium in December for US$2.12 billion. The consortium will hold 45%
of the share capital of Vodafone Qatar, while government institutions will hold 15%.
Meanwhile, the remaining 40% will be allocated in an Initial Public Offering (IPO) open only to
Qatari nationals. Vodafone Qatar was scheduled to launch services in March 2009, but this
was put back until June, with the Supreme Council for Information and Communication
Technology (ictQatar) revising the terms of Vodafones licensing agreement in April, giving it
until September 1 to establish coverage over 98% of the country.
Soon after ictQATAR awarded the second mobile phone license, the regulator invited bids for
the countrys second fixed line license, which would bundle WiMAX services into the license.
In February 2008, eight companies registered interest in bidding for the license, including
AT&T, Batelco, British Telecom, Eutelia, Jordan Telecom, PCCW-QIPCO, Verizon and Vodafone.
In September, ictQatar announced that the Vodafone and Qatar Foundation consortium that
had been awarded the countrys second mobile phone license had also been awarded the
second fixed line license, from a short list that included Jordan Telecom and PCCW-QIPCO.
Launch of fixed line services is expected to take place in 2009.
37
SAUDI ARABIA
COUNTRY ICT PROFILE SAUDI ARABIA
INDICATOR
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
3,700,000
3,800,000
3,950,000
4,000,000
4,123,000
9,200,000
14,200,000
19,668,191
28,400,041
36,059,212
9,200,000
2,400,000
2,000,000
11,900,000
2,288,194
11,806
3,400,000
2,210,000
13,800,000
5,800,000
68,191
4,800,000
2,695,000
17,300,000
11,008,200
91,841
6,400,000
3,548,800
19,100,000
14,800,000
149,212
2,010,000
7,936,000
4,755,392
Zain- SA
Internet Users
Computer Installed Base
38
60.92%
52.97%
5.57%
0.32%
Al Jawwal
38.76%
Mobily
Bravo
0.41%
Al Jawwal
41.04%
Mobily
Bravo
Zain
With the largest geographical area and population of all GCC states, Saudi Arabia has still
managed to make remarkable progress over some of its peers in promoting the use of
information and communication technology. According to recent reports from the CITC
(Communication and Information Technology Commission, the countrys regulator) telecom
service revenues have been steadily growing at a cumulative annual rate of around 15%
annually, increasing form around SR 20 billion on 2001 to around SR 58.9 billion in 2008.
Mobile service revenues represent around 80% of all telecom sector revenues. Scoring 2.09
on the Arab ICT Use Index, the country had the highest mobile penetration among Arab
economies, its advancement driven largely by the steady growth in the countrys mobile
phone sector. According to industry analysts, Saudi Telecom is under intense pressure to
improve profitability as a regional telecom war heats up, with rivals like Kuwait's Zain and
Emirates Telecommunications competing in the region. Mobily, STC's most serious rival,
recently posted a 50 percent rise in second-quarter net profit, setting the bar high for STC and
the third mobile phone Zain Saudi Arabia. STC had a drop of 22% in second-quarter profit
(2009), quoting foreign expansion costs and higher roaming fees had hurt profitability.
The number of Saudi mobile phone subscriptions grew to about 26.97% in 2008 to over
36,059,212 from 28.40 million in 2007. Competition in the mobile telecom market, which
started in 2005, intensified in 2008 with the launch of the service of the third mobile license
operator Zain in Saudi Arabia. The growth rate of 26.97% for 2008 was almost half of that
happened in 2007 which had a laudable growth rate of 44.4%. The compound annual growth
rate (CAGR) over the period from 2004 to 2008 was 40.7%. In terms of absolute numbers,
Saudi Arabias mobile phone subscribers ranked second in the Arab world, behind Egypt,
whose mobile phone subscribers exceeded 36.05 million. The strong growth in mobile phone
subscriptions is reflected in the evolving mobile phone penetration rate, with 11.42% in 2007
to 142.87 in 2008, moving Saudi Arabia to the top spot both among the GCC countries and in
the Arab world for this indicator. From the 36.05 million subscribers almost 84.7% are prepaid
subscribers and about 15.25% are postpaid subscribers.
39
30,559,000
30,000,000
23,600,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,100,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
9,527,000
4,900,000
4,300,000
4,673,000
4,600,000
4,800,041
5,500,212
2004
2005
Prepaid
2006
2007
2008
Postpaid
41
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1,188,000
1,237,000
1,310,000
1,371,000
1,640,000
3,683,000
4,534,500
5,520,000
7,872,000
10,079,000
3,683,000
1,320,000
850,000
4,534,500
1,550,000
1,000,000
5,520,000
1,980,000
1,295,000
6,372,000
1,500,000
2,560,000
1,780,900
7,300,000
2,779,000
3,353,600
2,475,451
19%
27.57%
72.43%
81%
Etisalat
Du
Etisalat
Du
Source: Madar Research
The United Arab Emirates, undoubtedly ranked first among MENA economies on the 2008
Arab ICT Use Index, displayed strong growth in most sectors, despite high penetration rates
across all indicators. According to recent industry reports Etisalat continued to perform well
in 2008, and it has acquired an impressive set of overseas assets in 18 countries. Even with
the presence of a second mobile operator Du, competition in its home market is relatively
benign and the UAE should continue to be a cash cow for Etisalat. From recent reports the
company generates strong cash flow and the overseas operations continues to be a growth
engine for the company, as UAE subscribers via population eases in 2009. Stimulated by the
liberalization of the mobile phone sector, mobile phone subscriptions in the country grew at a
28.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the period 2004 to 2008, however the
result of the global crisis could lead to a fall in population growth in the UAE, which has been
one of the key drivers for increased subscriber growth over the past few years.
According to recent reports, the United Arab Emirates mobile phone subscriber figures for
2008-2009 are expected to witness a sharp drop. The result of the economic slowdown should
lead to a reduction in population growth for the UAE, which has been one of the key drivers
for increased subscriber numbers over the last few years. With population easing, subscriber
42
43
1,360,000
1,325,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
280,000
46,000
2007
2008
Du
Etisalat
At 22.35%, the United Arab Emirates fixed line penetration rate in 2008 was the highest in
the Arab world. The countrys fixed-line subscribers numbered 1,640,000 in 2008, rising
18.33% over 2007. Total fixed line subscribers include Dus 282,000 residential and business
subscribers in several free zone areas and freehold residential complexes in Dubai.
The TRA of the country keeps a pristine check on all regulation of promotions offered by the
operators. Earlier in April 2009, the TRA had issued a fine of 400,000 Dhs on Etisalat for not
complying with fair competition rules set by the TRA. The country's two operators were
required to introduce carrier pre-selection, which allows landline telecom users to choose
between the operators. The service was introduced by Du but Etisalat failed to comply.
As in past years, the United Arab Emirates Internet penetration rate of 45.7% in 2008 is the
highest in the Arab world. However, despite its lead and 31% growth in the number of
Internet users from 2,560,000 in 2007 to 3,353,600 in 2008, According to the TRA, total
Internet subscriptions numbered 1,153,000 in 2008, up from 904,000 in 2006.
The United Arab Emirates computer installed base rose to 2,475,451 in 2008, up 39% from
2007s 1,780,900 computer installed base, with a penetration rate of 33.73%
44
INTERNET
SUBSCRIBERS
BROADBAND
SUBSCRIBERS
BROADBAND/INTER
NET S UBSCRIBERS
BROADBAND PENETRATION
(SUBSCRIBERS )
Bahrain
1,156,114
114,502
109,994
96.06%
9.51%
UAE
7,338,140
1,153,000
528,900
45.87%
7.21%
Qatar
Saudi
Arabia
1,553,729
115,888
103,400
89.22%
6.65%
25,239,067
3,000,000
1,331,000
44.37%
5.27%
Kuwait
3,441,813
376,000
124,200
33.03%
3.61%
Oman
3,013,184
89,528
31,635
35.34%
1.05%
COUNTRY
Bahrain, the smallest market in the region with a population size of just 1.15 million, turns out
to be the most competitive state in terms of broadband penetration (9.51%) as at end 2008.
There were about 114,000 Internet subscribers in Bahrain, of which 96% were utilizing
broadband and 4% were using dial-up connections. The number of broadband subscribers in
Bahrain had increased by 50%, from 73,563 subscribers in 2007 to 109,994 in 2008.
Residential broadband customers represented 92% of the broadband market in Bahrain, with
majority of these opting for 256kbps Internet access speed.
UAE has the second highest broadband penetration in the GCC at 7.21%. It also has the
second highest number of broadband subscribers in the GCC next to Saudi Arabia with
total of 528,900 subscribers as at end 2008. Furthermore, its broadband to Internet subscriber
ratio, at 45.87%, trails those registered in Bahrain (96.06%) and Qatar (89.22%).
Notably Qatar offers the lowest broadband price according to a comprehensive broadband
study conducted in the region by management consulting firm Arthur D. Little. The study
conducted in 2008 asserts that Qatar offers [broadband services at a price point that is]
between 10% and 23% lower than that of the average of other GCC nations. As at end 2008,
Qatar had 103,400 broadband subscribers with a penetration rate of 6.65%.
With the highest population in the GCC, Saudi Arabia had a broadband subscriber penetration
of 5.27% as at end 2008. The number of broadband subscribers in Saudi Arabia has also grown
from 683,000 in 2007 to 1,331,000 in 2008.
Of the 1,331,000 there were 1,000,000 DSL and 331,000 wireless (WiMax & Mobile HSPA)
connections. The broadband to Internet subscriber ratio in the Kingdom stood at 44.37% in
2008. As at end 2008, household broadband penetration in the country stood at 23% or 23
broadband connections for every 100 households. Kuwait and Oman were the bottom
qualifiers on the list with only 3.61% and 1.05% broadband subscriber penetration,
respectively.
45
46
LEVANT 2008
PENETRATION
MOBILE PHONE
PENETRATION
Jordan
Egypt
Lebanon
Syria
Iraq
8.87%
16.34%
11.94%
19.06%
5.75%
6 Palestine
0.85%
RANK
COUNTRY
1
2
3
4
5
FIXED LINE
IN
TOTAL
13.28
PENETRATION
COMPUTER
PENETRATION
ICT USE
INDEX
92.96%
72.79%
27.35%
48.01%
72.79%
24.63%
16.53%
28.43%
17.26%
10.09%
13.93%
5.65%
16.02%
7.19%
4.37%
1.4
0.96
0.91
27.35%
14.17%
5.01%
0.76
56.47%
INTERNET
15.85%
6.22%
0.82
0.8
0.92
Holding on to the trend seen last year, Jordan was ranked 6th in the Arab world on the 2008
ICT Use Index, just behind the five most powerful MENA economies, Jordan easily led all
competitors in the Levant, taken here as comprising Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq.
The driver of Jordanian growth has been without doubt its competitive mobile phone market,
with the mobile phone penetration rate rising to 92.96% in 2008 as well as its ranking second
on Internet and computer penetration at 24.63% and 13.93%. Lebanon maintained its
regional lead, however, in Internet (28.43%) and computer penetration (16.02%), ranking
second in the Levant but 13th overall in the MENA region. Syria, meanwhile, topped the
region in terms of fixed line penetration (at 19.06%). Overall, the Levant region averaged a
score of 0.92 on the new ICT Use Index compared to the 0.70 in 2007, with average mobile
phone penetration registering a higher 56.47% compared to the 41.59% of 2007, fixed line
penetration was 13.28%, not much changed since the 13.12% in 2007, Internet penetration
15.85% and computer penetration 6.22%.
EGYPT
COUNTRY ICT PROFILE EGYPT
INDICATOR
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
9,600,000
10,400,000
10,800,000
10,900,000
11,900,000
7,584,948
12,820,993
17,970,815
31,550,626
44,526,000
4,015,948
3,569,000
3,900,000
1,700,000
6,695,993
6,125,000
4,800,000
2,050,000
9,266,815
8,704,000
6,100,000
2,600,000
15,117,626
13,333,000
3,100,000
8,620,000
3,304,300
20,115,000
17,611,000
6,800,000
12,570,000
4,295,590
47
45.18%
47.92%
42.26%
15.27%
9.83%
Mobinil
39.55%
Vodafone
Etisalat Misr
Mobinil
Vodafone
Etisalat Misr
Source: Madar Research
Egypt ranked in 12th place overall on the 2008 Arab ICT Use Index, scoring 0.96, which
represents a 37% growth over the countrys 2007 score of 0.70. The country witnessed strong
growth on all indicators, with mobile phone subscriptions and Internet users the strongest
drivers of this growth. Egypts Internet user sectors were the second fastest-growing in the
Arab world, with its mobile users sector the fifth fastest. Fixed line subscriptions grew at a
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% over the period 2004 to 2008, Internet users at
33.99% over the same period and computer installed base at 26.08%. Meanwhile, mobile
phone subscriptions grew at a CAGR of 55.7% over the period 2004 to 2008.
In August 2006, Egypt granted a 15-year $2.90 billion renewable license for GSM and 3G
mobile services to the countrys third operator, Etisalat Misr, a consortium formed by the
United Arab Emirates Etisalat (holding 66% of the shares) and three prominent Egyptian
institutions (Egypt Post, the National Bank of Egypt and the Commercial International Bank),
to provide services alongside Mobinil and Vodafone Egypt, both of which began operations in
1998. In addition to the license fee, Etisalat Misr is required to pay the National
Telecommunications Regulatory Authority 6.00% annual royalty on total revenues. The award
of a 3G license to Etisalat Misr compelled Mobinil and Vodafone Egypt to invest $610 million
each in their own 3G licenses, in addition to paying the countrys regulatory authority 2.40%
annual royalty on total revenues.
Mobinil shareholders comprise the Egyptian Company for Mobile Services (51.03%), Orascom
Telecom Holding (20%) and public shareholders (28.97%). The Egyptian Company for Mobile
Services is, in turn, jointly owned by Orange Group (71.25%) and Orascom Telecom Holding
(28.75%). On the other hand, Vodafone Egypt is 44.79%-owned by Telecom Egypt, the
countrys monopoly fixed-line provider, but the majority of shares (55.04%) are held by
Vodafone Group.
Etisalat Misr launched commercial operations in May 2007, Etisalat Misrs subscribers had
reached 6.8 million, a 119% increase from the previous year and totaling a 15% market share.
Its subscriber base appears to have created erosion to the two existing mobile phone
operators subscription figures, with Vodafone Egypt losing market share from 42.26% to
39.55% in 2008, while Mobinils market share dropped from 47.92% to 45.18% over the same
period. Despite the loss in market share, both operators witnessed strong growth in mobile
48
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
850,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,400,000
1,653,348e
1,288,400
4,572,300
8,842,057
12,777,000
18,287,470e
7,287,000
9,681,000
4,290,000
6,106,470
1,200,000
2,500,000e
1,990,000
935,000
3,084,500
1,337,050
450,000
480,000
1,200,000
680,000
1,500,000
795,000
57.03%
52.94%
33.39%
33.58%
9.39%
MTC Atheer
AsiaCell
MTC Atheer
AsiaCell
Despite its dire security situation and ongoing conflict in the country, Iraq witnessed strong
growth on the 2007 Arab ICT Use Index, its index score rising 29% to 0.80. Growth was largely
driven by the expansion in the mobile phone sector. Iraqs mobile subscribers grew by a
strong 43.13% in 2008 the fastest growth rate in the sector among Arab countries. Total
subscribers were estimated to be 18,287,470 by end 2008, up from 12,777,000 in 2007.
Iraqs mobile phone sector has been the scene of a number of sales, mergers and acquisitions
since its official launch in 2003. Although MTC Atheer attracted 2.3 million new subscribers
boosting its existing total subscriber base , it had lost significant market share to its
competitors to reach 52.94% compared to its 2007 market dominance of 57.03%.
In August 2007, five companies entered the bid for three 15-year mobile phone licenses which
would replace three short term contracts awarded in 2003, soon after the United States
invasion of Iraq. Bidding for the licenses were existing mobile phone service providers,
50
51
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
638,000
628,200
614,000
559,000
519,000
1,594,491
2,872,800
4,156,600
4,772,000
5,438,000
1,139,191
455,300
-
1,757,000
750,800
300,000
1,961,100
1,405,500
700,000
1,858,000
1,711,200
1,000,000
2,345,000
1,608,000
1,430,000
500,000
420,000
65,000
645,000
520,000
90,000
840,000
610,000
202,800
1,100,000
708,400
55,000
1,441,000
814,660
Xpress
Internet Users
Computer Installed Base
35.86%
43.12%
38.94%
29.57%
1.01%
4.25%
26.30%
20.96%
Zain
Orange Mobile
Umniah
Xpress
Zain
Orange Mobile
Umniah
Xpress
Jordans drop in fixed line penetration was the main driver behind the countrys lower
performance on the 2008 Arab ICT Use Index, ranking it first in the Levant region on the
indicator. With four mobile operators, Jordan still is among the most competitive
telecommunications market of all MENA economies. Unlike its 2005 , 2006 or 2007 rank of 6th
place, Jordan was placed 8th overall this year, ranking lower than Libya on the ICT Use Index
2008, with a score of 1.40. Jordans compounded annual mobile subscriber growth rate was
about 35.9%.
Zain (formerly Fastlink, Jordans incumbent provider) continued to dominate the market, the
companys share rose from 38.94% in 2007 to 43.21% in 2008, a substantial gain considering
that the mobile sector grew by 13.96% during the same period. Although Zains total
subscribers had decreased in 2007, 2008 was a blissful year for Zain with an accelerating
growth rate of 26.21% attracting an additional 487,000 subscribers, ending the year with a
total subscriber base of 2,345,000 subscribers. Jordan Telecom subsidiary, Orange Mobile
(rebranded from MobileCom) which attracted 94,000 additional customers in 2008, for a total
52
638,000
628,000
614,000
600,000
559,000
519,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Fixedline
Although TRC is making substantial investments in the fixed line sector of the country ( 23
million JD in 2008) Jordans fixed-line sector still gaily continued its downward trend it had
fallowed since 2005 to decline further by -7.16% in 2008, with subscriptions dropping down to
519,000 from 559,000 in 2007. Consequently, fixed line penetration for this country also
dropped from 9.77% in 2007 to 8.87% in 2008. Internet users, meanwhile, rose 31% to
1,441,000 from 1,100,000 users in 2007. Internet penetration rose to 24.63%. Twelve Internet
Service Providers offer various Internet access services to the Jordanian public.
Growth in computer installed base rose to 15% in 2008 as the country added 106,260 new
computers in 2008 to the 2007 base of 708,400. Jordans computer penetration rate, at
13.93%, ranked it 7th in the Arab world, between Oman and Lebanon.
53
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
630,000
600,000
670,000
693,000
527,500
880,000
1,011,000
1,124,000
1,216,000
1,436,000
441,200
438,800
610,000
430,000
509,000
502,000
700,000
490,000
565,000
559,000
805,000
530,000
630,000
586,000
935,000
586,400
836,000
600,000
1,196,800
674,360
48%
42%
58%
52%
MTC Touch
Alfa
MTC Touch
Alfa
54
PALESTINE
COUNTRY ICT PROFILE PALESTINE
INDICATOR
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
290,010
348,968
341,330
350,442
420,000
874,000
1,090,400
1,471,000
1,744,600
2,022,163
437,005
566,592
821,800
1,021,481
1,314,406
Other operators
Internet Users
436,995
390,000
523,808
490,000
649,200
525,000
723,119
552,500
707,757e
596,700
170,000
185,000
191,000
199,900
210,993
56
41%
59%
65%
35%
Jawwal
Other Opeators
Jawwal
Other Opeators
Despite the countrys small market and the many constraints under which it operates,
Palestine dropped to 16th place ending a 2 year 13th position on the 2008 Arab ICT Use Index
after achieving 7.04% growth in 2008. Like most developing MENA economies, Palestines ICT
growth was largely dependent on the countrys mobile phone sector, which was controlled,
along with fixed lines, data services and Internet, by the Palestine Telecommunications
Company (Paltel), a public shareholding company traded on the Palestinian and Abu Dhabi
stock exchanges.
Palestines mobile phone subscriptions grew by 15.91% compared to the better 18.60%
growth of 2007 to register 2,022,163 subscriptions by end 2008. Financial constraints and
growing poverty in the Palestinian Territories are largely to blame for the decelerated growth
of the market. Paltels wholly-owned subsidiary, the Palestine Cellular Communications
Company (Jawwal) competes with several Israeli mobile phone service providers that operate
illegally in the Palestinian Territories. Jawwal acquired 65% of the mobile phone subscription
market in 2008, up from 58.55% in 2007, with the companys subscriptions numbering
1,314,406 by year end. Jawwals 2008 subscriptions figures reflect a growth rate of 28.68% in
total subscriptions and a net addition of 292,925 mobile phone subscriptions by year end.
In February 2006, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas rushed through a law creating a
telecommunications regulatory authority. However, in September 2006, it was still Palestines
Ministry of Telecommunications and Information Technology that announced Kuwaits
Wataniya Telecom had won the tender for the countrys second mobile phone license. The
US$354.3 million license was awarded in March 2007 to the newly established Wataniya
Palestine Mobile Telecommunications Company, owned jointly by Wataniya Telecom (57%
share) and the Palestine Investment Fund (43%). The structure of ownership of Wataniya
Palestine is due to change at a later stage, with 30% being offered to public shareholders in an
Initial Public Offering (IPO), while the Palestine Investment Funds share will be reduced to
30% and Wataniya Telecoms share to 40%. Originally planned for January 2008, Wataniya
Palestines commercial launch has been delayed until late 2008, due to limitations imposed by
Israeli authorities on the allocation of frequencies.
Mobile penetration rose from 43.45% in 2007 to 48.01% in 2007, ranking Palestine in 14th
place in the MENA region on the indicator, and sixth in the Levant behind Iraq and Syria. The
57
SYRIA
COUNTRY ICT PROFILE SYRIA
INDICATOR
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2,660,000
2,903,000
3,300,000
3,450,000
3,633,400
1,947,700
3,199,100
4,755,541
6,451,104
7,789,563
1,077,183
870,517
1,733,600
1,465,500
2,518,541
2,237,000
3,342,104
3,109,000
4,250,563
3,539,000
Internet Users
Computer Installed Base
700,000
1,300,000
1,750,000
2,400,000
3,432,000
540,000
680,000
860,000
1,100,000
1,430,000
48%
45%
55%
52%
SyriaTel
MTNSyria
SyriaTel
MTNSyria
58
60
COUNTRY
1
2
3
4
Libya
Tunisia
Algeria
Morocco
TOTAL
FIXED LINE
IN
PENETRATION
MOBILE PHONE
PENETRATION
14.31%
11.94%
10.65%
9.54%
10.67%
114.05%
81.06%
78.05%
72.79%
79.2%
INTERNET
PENETRATION
COMPUTER
PENETRATION
ICT USE
INDEX
15.20%
19.92%
11.45%
13.40%
13.54%
11.48%
8.70%
5.78%
6.07%
6.69%
1.55
1.22
1.06
1.02
1.10
North Africa has some of the most developed ICT markets on the continent. Despite having an
old style monopolistic approach to telecommunication, Libya has once again made great
inroads on the ICT Use Index in 2008, with an overall index score of 1.55 bolstered mainly by
the countrys phenomenal growth in the mobile phone and fixed line subscriptions markets.
Based on the market potentials of this country Etisalat and Turkcell had recently placed a bid
with Libyan General Telecommunications Authority to become selected as the third mobile
service provider. In addition to leading the region in mobile phone penetration, Libya also
topped the index in computer penetration at well, with an overall computer penetration rate
of 11.48%. Meanwhile, Tunisia, with an index score of 1.22 ranked second in the region. The
country led the North Africa region in terms of Internet penetration (19.92%).
Overall, North Africa scored 1.10 from the 1.00 of 2007 on the index, with 79.2% mobile
phone penetration. Internet penetration registered 13.54%, while fixed line penetration
registered below the 10.67%. The regions computer penetration rate, on the other hand,
was a low 6.69%.
61
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2,486,720
2,572,000
2,841,297
3,068,409
3,687,603
4,882,414
13,661,355
20,997,954
25,500,000
27,031,474
3,418,367
1,176,485
287,562
1,500,000
590,000
7,276,834
4,907,960
1,476,561
1,850,000
825,000
10,530,826
7,476,104
2,991,024
2,365,000
1,110,000
12,000,000
9,500,000
4,000,000
3,050,000
1,482,000
14,108,859
7,703,689
5,218,926
3,965,000
2,000,700
37%
28%
16%
47%
Djezzy
Mobilis
Nedjma
19%
53%
Djezzy
Mobilis
Nedjma
Source: Madar Research
Algerias mobile phone subscriptions grew only 6.01% in 2008, to register 27,031,474
subscriptions overall in 2008, the pace of growth was slowing down from 53.70% growth in
2006, 21.44% in 2007 and now the 6.01% growth in 2008. Mobile phone subscriptions growth
reached at 53.4% CAGR over the period 2004 2008, from 4,882,414 subscriptions in 2004.
The lower growth rate may be attributed to the fact that majority of Algerias mobile phone
subscriptions are prepaid compared to post paid. Moreover, subscribers need to have bank
accounts and provide deposits or other guarantees, in order to set up working post-paid
contracts. According to the countrys regulator, the Autorit de Rgulation de la Poste et des
Tlcommunications (ARPT), 97.01% of all subscriptions were prepaid subscriptions at end
2007, a share that has remained consistent over the past few years (97.06% in 2006 and
96.80% in 2005).
Even thought Algeria lags behind other countries of the Arab world in the area of new
information and communication technologies such as Internet and broadband, but mobile
services have made remarkable progress ever since the sector had been opened up to
competition in 2002. The authorities are aware of this gap the country has when compared to
62
64
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
485,000
495,000
506,608
517,750
910,000e
420,000
1,690,000
3,383,632
5,105,073
7,250,000
245,000
175,000
1,455,000
235,000
3,132,379
251,253
4,500,000
605,073
6,000,000
1,250,000
Internet Users
Computer Installed Base
260,000
612,000
700,000
805,000
966,000
220,000
340,000
410,000
517,500
729,675
88%
83%
17%
12%
Libyana
Al-Madar
Libyana
Al-Madar
Libya led its North Africa counterparts on the 2007 Arab ICT Use Index, with a score of 1.55,
and sixth overall among MENA economies. As in 2006, Libyas strongest performance was in
mobile phone subscriptions, which increased in number from 5,105,073 to 7,250,000 in 2008,
at a strong growth rate of 42.02% - the fourth highest growth rate in the MENA region behind
Yemen and Iraq. Furthermore, Libyas mobile phone subscriptions grew at a CAGR of 103.8%
over the period 2004 to 2008.
The Libyan telecommunication network is the core of the ICT sector for the country. The
telecommunication network however is poor and has suffered significantly from lack of
competition and essential experience. Consumers complain of low coverage, poor
connections and dropped calls at peak times. The impressive rise in mobile phone
penetration from 87.72% by end 2007 to 113.3% in 2008, driven largely by Libyana , one of
the countrys two-state controlled mobile phone service providers. Libyana, which entered
the market in September 2004, added 1,500,000 new mobile phone subscriptions to its
subscriber base in 2008 to a total of 6,000,000 subscriptions. However, it lost market share
due to phenomenal growth in its competitors subscriber base for the past two years. AlMadar Al-Jadeed (which rebranded from Al-Madar Telephone Company in 2007) registered
65
MOROCCO
COUNTRY ICT PROFILE MOROCCO
INDICATOR
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1,308,500
1,341,156
1,266,119
2,393,767
2,991,185
9,337,000
12,393,000
16,005,000
20,029,000
22,816,000
6,306,000
3,031,000
-
8,237,000
4,156,000
-
10,707,000
5,298,000
-
13,327,000
6,702,000
-
14,456,000
7,925,000
435,000
Internet Users
Computer Installed Base
1,600,000
2,500,000
2,950,000
3,500,000
4,200,000
1,240,000
1,365,000
1,510,000
1,700,000
1,904,000
35%
67%
63%
33%
2%
Maroc Telecom
Medi Telecom
Maroc Telecom
Medi Telecom
Wana
The World Information Technology Report (a joint report of the ITU and UNCTAD) in 2007 had
applauded Moroccos efforts and the progress the country had made in the field of new
information and communication technology (ICT) development. Liberalization of the telecom
sector along with the added competition and providing viable laws and opportunities by the
authorities for FDI (foreign direct investments) had helped Moroccos rapid development of
this sector. Morocco this year gained 0.14 points on the 2008 Arab ICT Use Index to a score
of 1.02 from 0.88 in 2007, but maintained its rank in 11th place overall in the MENA region for
a second year in a row. The country registered 22,816,000 mobile phone subscriptions by end
67
459,000
800,000
690,000
612,000
922,000
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
2004
2005
2006
Prepaid
2007
21,894,000
0%
19,229,000
10%
15,315,000
11,781,000
8,878,000
20%
2008
postpaid
In 2006, Morocco had the highest mobile-to-fixed line ratio in the Arab world at 12.64 mobile
subscriptions for every fixed line subscription, indicating a weak fixed line sector. However, in
2008, the sector had improved dramatically, resulting in a drop to ninth place in the mobileto-fixed line ratio, with 6.19 mobile phone subscriptions for every fixed line.
68
87%
86%
14%
Residential Lines
Business Lines
13%
Residential Lines
Business Lines
Meanwhile, the total number of public payphones dropped to 174,890 from 175,645 in 2007.
Maroc Telecom held the greater share in the public payphone market, accounting for 91.53%
of total payphones at end 2008, while Medi Telecom accounted for 8.47%. Total fixed-line
penetration for 2008 rose to 9.54% from 7.63% in 2007, ranking Morocco in 12th place among
Arab countries on this indicator, way up from 17th in 2006.
Although Medi Telecom and Wana were both awarded new fixed line licenses in 2005, Maroc
Telecom remained, for all intents and purposes, the countrys sole fixed-line operator during
2006. Medi Telecom announced the launch of residential and business services over a WiMAX
fixed wireless and fiber optic network in June of 2006, but concentrated on marketing
business and data services, particularly international traffic between Morocco and France. By
end 2007, Medi Telecom had registered 0nly 4,731 fixed line subscriptions. Meanwhile,
Wana, owned by Groupe ONA (one of the countrys largest conglomerates) and the Socit
Nationale dInvestissement, launched CDMA fixed line and Internet services in February 2007
under the brand name Bayn.
While Maroc Telecom continued to dominate the fixed line sector in 2007, its market share
fell in 2008, due to strong competition from Wana. By end of 2008, the latter accounted for
56.35% of the fixed line market in Morocco, while Maroc Telecom accounted for 43.42% and
Medi Telecom for a low 0.24%.
Moroccos Internet users grew by 20% in 2008, to 4,200,000 users, from 3,500,000 in 2007.
Internet penetration rose to 13.40%, ranking the country second last in the North Africa
region on the indicator and 14th in the MENA region, ahead of Algeria, Iraq, Sudan and
Yemen. According to the ANRT, there were 757,453 Internet subscribers in Morocco by end
2008, up from 526,080 in 2007. Broadband ADSL connections accounted for 63.74% of total
subscriptions, down from 90.60% in 2007. The ADSL access mode lost market share to
wireless Internet access provided by Wanas Bayn, which accounted for 25.08% of the total
subscriber market.
69
TUNISIA
COUNTRY ICT PROFILE TUNISIA
INDICATOR
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1,204,000
1,257,000
1,268,000
1,273,000
1, 239,000
3,735,695
5,680,726
7,339,047
7,842,619
8,411,630
2,688,179
1,047,516
3,423,064
2,257,662
4,269,733
3,069,314
4,190,806
3,651,813
4,256,573
4,155,057
Internet Users
Computer Installed Base
835,000
953,800
1,294,910
1,722,190
2,066,628
472,000
568,000
660,000
767,500
902,521
49%
47%
53%
51%
Tunisie Telecom
Tunisiana
Tunisie Telecom
Tunisiana
Source: Madar Research
In 2008 Tunisia was ranked 36th by the World Economic Forum above Bahrain and below
Kuwait. It came fifth among the Middle Eastern countries, after Kuwait. Tunisia slipped from
the highest ranking North African country on the 2006 Arab ICT Use Index to second place
among its regional counterparts, with Libya taking the lead. The country scored 1.22 on the
index, up from 1.11 in 2007. Tunisia witnessed the slowest growth in the mobile phone
subscriptions sector in the MENA region (above Algeria that witnessed negative growth) in
2008, growing at a low 7.26%, (2.42% higher than 2007) with only 569,011 net additions in
mobile phone subscriptions by year end. Mobile phone subscriptions grew at a CAGR of
22.5% over the period 2004 to 2008.
Tunisia Telecom enjoys total monopoly on the fixed line segment. Tunisia mobile sector
however is a duopoly shared by incumbent Socit Nationale des Tlcommunications
70
71
COUNTRY
FIXED LINE
IN
LEVANT 2008
PENETRATION
MOBILE PHONE
PENETRATION
5.75%
0.85%
3.30%
27.35%
26.06%
26.71%
Yemen
Sudan
TOTAL
INTERNET
PENETRATION
COMPUTER
PENETRATION
ICT USE
INDEX
6.76%
8.32%
7.54%
2.55%
3.09%
2.82%
0.41
0.4
0.41
Despite Yemens rank in 17th place on the overall ICT Use Index, it was the only Arab country
to witness strong growth in both mobile and fixed line subscribers. Its score on the 2008 index
rose to 0.41, while Sudan scored 0.40. The latters main advantage over Sudan was its fixed
line penetration, at 5.75% to Sudans 0.85%. However, overall, Sudan achieved low
penetration rates on all other indicators, even thought there are no major challenges facing
the telecommunication infrastructure development in Sudan. The low penetration rates could
be deemed to happen from the limited demand for services other than telephones and
disposable income available for registering with other services, relegating the country to last
place on the ICT Use Index.
SUDAN
COUNTRY ICT PROFILE SUD AN
INDICATOR
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1,029,000
570,000
499,000
345,200
356,500
1,050,000
2,230,500
4,820,176
9,860,474
11,437,000
1,050,000
-
1,962,000
268,500
1,000,176
2,754,000
1,066,000
3,887,474
3,883,000
2,090,000
3,600,000
5,190,000
2,647,000
Internet Users
Computer Installed Base
650,000
1,350,000
1,750,000
2,450,000
3,479,000
630,000
770,000
905,000
1,080,000
1,292,562
72
39%
21%
23%
31%
40%
Sudani
Zain Sudan
MTN Sudan
Sudani
Zain Sudan
MTN Sudan
Source: Madar Research
According to certain secondary references, over 80% of Sudan has telecom service availability,
covering all major urban and rural settlements. Three companies provide mobile services in
Sudan namely Sudani (with 31% market share), Zain Sudan (with 46% market share) and MTN
Sudan (with 23% market share). Sudans public operator Sudatel provides its mobile service
through a separate sister company called Sudani. Sudan registered the lowest score on the
2008 Arab ICT Use Index, having a growth of mere 17.65%. Mobile phone subscriptions in the
country grew only by a mere 15.9% in 2008 compared to the triple digit growth of 104.57%
in 2007, which then was the only instance of its kind among the MENA economies. The
decline in Sudatels subscription at, -7.39% in 2008 (from 288.68% in 2007), was a major
driver for this decline in growth compared to its growth rate for previous years. The
companies mobile phone subscriptions fell from 3,887,474 in 2007 t o 3,600,000 in 2008.
Sudatels regional market share also fell to 31%, to give way 9% of the market to its
competitors in 2008. The company was established by incumbent fixed line operator, Sudatel,
following the sale of the latters interest in Mobitel to Kuwaits Zain. A CDMA technologybased voice and data service, Sudani was licensed by the countrys regulatory authority, the
National Telecommunications Corporation, at a cost of US$230 million and began limited
operations in April 2006.
In February 2006, Kuwait-based Zain, which already owned 39% of Mobitel, purchased the
companys outstanding shares from the Sudanese government for US$1.3 billion, taking
ownership in the countrys second mobile phone operator to 100%. Mobitel was rebranded as
Zain in September 2007. The companys mobile phone subscriptions grew by33.66% in 2008,
from 3,883,000 to 5,190,000. It also accumulated substantial market share from 39% in 2007
to 46% in 2008. The increase in Zain market share has propelled Zain to become the market
leader for mobile subscription in the region, less than two years after it began operating in the
Sudanese market.
Meanwhile, Sudans third mobile phone network, MTN Sudan, was originally branded Areeba
and established on the basis of a 15-year license awarded to Bashair Telecom Company,
which was partly owned by the Lebanese company, Investcom. In 2006, Investcom bought out
Bashair Telecom only to be itself purchased by the South African telecommunications
provider, MTN Group, in a complex series of acquisitions and mergers finalized at the end of
the year. By end 2008, MTN Sudans mobile phone subscriptions had risen to 2,647,000 from
73
74
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
750,000
901,400
968,328
1,021,988
1,337,122
Mobile Phone
Subscriptions
MTN Yemen
Yemen Mobile
Sabafon
Y-Telecom
Internet Users
Computer Installed Base
1,084,739
2,132,900
3,022,629
4,107,000
6,059,000
441,239
55,000
588,500
_
210,000
195,000
824,846
310,000
998,054
_
750,000
290,000
1,161,000
800,000
1,061,629
_
880,000
360,000
1,507,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
_
1,122,000
448,800
1,859,000
1,900,000
2,000,000
300,000
1,570,800
592,551
34%
29%
31.4%
5.0%
30.7%
37%
MTN Yemen
Yemen Mobile
Sabafon
MTN Yemen
Yemen Mobile
Sabafon
Y-Telecom
Yemen bottomed out on the 2008 Arab ICT Use Index on three out of the four indicators,
namely mobile phone, Internet and computer penetration, rising two places above last place
on only fixed line penetration to rank in 16th place. The country score on the index rose by
36.6%, but the growth did little to improve Yemens rank. However, in terms of fixed line
growth, the country fared well; Yemen had the second highest growth rate in the region with
30.84% growth.
Mobile phone subscriptions rose 47.53% to register 6,059,000 subscriptions by end 2008,
from 4,107,000 subscriptions. The countrys growth rate ranked it 2nd among MENA
economies in terms of growth of mobile phone subscriptions. MTN (formerly Spacetel),
Yemens largest operator, lost its market share, and remained one of the dominant providers
with 1,859,000 subscriptions (30.7% in 2008 form 37% market share in 2007). Sabafon
displaced Yemen Mobile as the countrys largest mobile phone provider in terms of
subscriptions, its market share rising from 29% in 2007 to 33% in 2008. The fast-growing
Sabafon registered 2 million subscriptions by end 2008, at a growth rate of 66.67% from
75
76
BAHRAIN
EGYPT
IRAQ
JORDAN
KUWAIT
OPERATOR
LIBYA
MOROCCO
OMAN
QATAR
SAUDI
ARABIA
NETWORK
LAUNCH
Mobilis
www.mobilis.dz
2004
Orascom Telecom
Djezzy
www.djezzygsm.com
2002
Nedjma
www.nedjma.dz
1999
Batelco
www.batelco.com.bh
1995
Zain
www.zain.com
2003
Orascom Telecom
Mobinil
www.mobinil.com
1996
Vodafone
Vodafone
www.vodafone.com.eg
1998
Etisalat
Etisalat Misr
www.etisalat.com.eg
2007
Qtel
AsiaCell
www.asiacell.com
2003
Zain
Zain
www.zain.com
2004
Korek Telecom
Korek
www.korektel.com
2001
Zain
Zain
www.zain.com
1995
Jordan Telecom
Orange
Mobile
www.mobilecom.jo
2000
Batelco
Umniah
www.umniah.com
2005
XPress Telecommunications
Xpress
www.xpress.jo
2005
Zain
Zain
www.zain.com
1994
www.wataniya.com
1999
www.alfa.com.lb
www.mtctouch.com.lb
www.libyana.ly
1995
1995
2004
www.almadar.ly
1996
www.iam.ma
1994
Wataniya
Telecom
Alfa
MTC Touch
Libyana
Al-Madar AlJadeed
Maroc
Telecom
Meditel
Meditel
www.meditel.ma
2000
Qtel
Nawras
Oman
Mobile
www.nawras.com.om
2005
www.omanmobile.om
1996
Jawwal
www.myjawwal.com
1999
Qtel
www.qtel.com.qa
1993
Etihad Etisalat
Mobily
www.mobily.com.sa
2005
Public Telecommunications
Company
Bravo
www.ptc.com.sa
2005
Oman Mobile
PALESTINE
URL
Algerie Telecom
Wataniya Telecom
LEBANON
NETWORK
NAME
Palestine Cellular
Communication Company
Qatar Telecommunications
Company
77
SUDAN
SYRIA
TUNISIA
Saudi Telecommunications
Company
MTN Sudan
Saudi
Telecom
MTN Sudan
www.stc.com.sa
1996
www.mtn.sd
2005
Zain
Sudan Telecommunications
Company
Zain
www.zain.com
1997
Sudani
www.sudatel.net
2006
MTN Syria
MTN Syria
www.mtn.com.sy
2001
Syriatel
Orascom Telecom
Syriatel
Tunisiana
Tunisie
Telecom
www.syriatel.com
www.tunisiana.com
2001
2002
www.tunisietelecom.tn
1998
Etisalat
www.etisalat.ae
1994
Du
www.du.ae
2007
MTN Yemen
MTN Yemen
www.mtn.com.ye
2001
Sabafon
Sabafon
www.sabafon.com
2001
Yemen Mobile
Yemen
Mobile
www.yemenmobile.com.ye
2004
Tunisie Telecom
Emirates Telecommunications
Corporation
Emirates Integrated
Telecommunications Company
UAE
YEMEN
OPERATOR
URL
Algerie Telecom
www.algerietelecom.dz
Lacom
www.lacom.dz
Batelco
www.batelco.com.bh
Telecom Egypt
Iraq
Telecommunicati
ons and Posts
Company
www.telecomegypt.com.eg
N/A
JORDAN
Jordan Telecom
www.orange.jo
KUWAIT
Ministry of
Communications
www.mockw.net
LEBANON
LIBYA
MOROCCO
Ogero
www.ogero.gov.lb
GPTC
www.gptc-libya.com
Maroc Telecom
www.iam.ma
Meditel
www.meditel.ma
Wana
www.wana.ma
OMAN
PALESTINE
OmanTel
www.omantel.net.om
PalTel
www.paltel.ps
QATAR
SAUDI ARABIA
Qtel
www.qtel.com.qa
Saudi Telecom
www.stc.com.sa
78
SYRIA
TUNISIA
UAE
YEMEN
SudaTel
www.sudatel.net
Canar Telecom
www.canar.sd
Syrian
Telecommunicati
ons
Establishment
Tunisie Telecom
www.ste.gov.sy
www.tunisietelecom.tn
Etisalat
www.etisalat.ae
Du
www.du.ae
TeleYemen
www.teleyemen.com.ye
Source: Madar Research
79
80
I M P A C T O N I N T E R N A T I O N A L P E R F O R M A N C E I N D I CA T O R S
Internationally, census figures were adopted by all organizations whether the United Nations,
the World Bank, International Telecommunications Union, research institutions or nongovernmental organizations. While an overall population figure based on census may have
been reliable enough for the year it stood for, estimates used internationally for successive
years were often unreliable and at certain years differing by as much as 25 percent or more
from the best official or authoritative estimates thus, completely distorting all indicators
based on them. This applies mainly to the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, followed by
Kuwait and Bahrain, which have the highest annual population growth rates in the GCC and
among the highest in the world.
There is more than one reason why the GCC populations can be so widely misrepresented at
global organizations. The United Nations usually uses the latest census figure available for a
country and then adds an annual growth rate as per world norms, which is too modest in the
case of the GCC countries. Year after year, and until the next census, the gap between the
actual population figure and the estimate becomes wider. These figures are often copied by
other organizations and used for calculating various indicators, leading to a wider
misrepresentation of a countrys performance against the rest of the world, where population
growth is modest. There are instances when old population figures are used (i.e.: the latest
available census figures) for all countries with the source year indicated. Again, indicators for
countries with the highest population growth suffer the highest inaccuracies.
Very rarely, an international organization may take up the time-consuming and thorny
challenge of seeking more reliable, updated population estimates from the countries
concerned to achieve higher accuracy for its indicators. While such a course of action would
generally yield more reliable figures, some countries may have more than one official
estimate, with significant differences between them, as in the UAE as detailed in the following
below.
81
2004
2005
2007
2007
2008
Source
4,320,000
4,924,800
5,629,046
6,493,929
7,338,140e
Growth
14.00%
14.30%
15.36%
13.00%
3,933,000
4,089,000
4,233,000
4,364,000
4,485,000
UN Data - mid-year
4,011,000
4,161,000
4,298,500
4,424,500
4,542,000
Growth
3.74%
3.30%
2.93%
2.66%
3,761,000
3,986,000
4,229,000
4,488,000
4,765,000
3,873,500
4,106,427
4,358,500
4,626,500
4,915,500
Growth
6.01%
6.14%
6.15%
6.25%
Since the population figures used by international organizations are always older i.e.:
smaller than the actual population figures they increase the value of the indicator based on
them. In other words, they make a countrys performance in a particular field looks better
than it really is, such as in the following examples.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Qatar has the highest GDP (PPP) per
capita in the world in 2008, calculated at US$85,868. This was based on a population of 1.10
million. However, using the official population figure of 1.45 million, released by Qatar
Statistics Authority for mid 2008, Qatars 2008 GDP (PPP) per capita becomes $65,092 more
than 24 percent lower than the IMF figure. Fortunate for Qatar, this correction despite the
big difference in outcome would bring down its global ranking by only one notch leaving
Luxembourg to lead the world in GDP (PPP) per capita.
Due to a high influx of expatriate workers, Qatar has the highest population growth in the
world, which can greatly impact its performance indicators from one year to the next. To
appreciate the weight of the population growth year over year, the table below shows the
official annual growth since 2004, compared with growth figures used by the UN. While the
official (actual) annual growth rate has been averaging at 17 percent, the rate adopted by the
UN has been ranging between 11 percent and 13 percent. It is not clear why the UN figures
are much lower.
82
2004
2005
2007
2007
2008
Source
760,946
888,451
1,041,733
1,226,211
1,448,446
824,699
965,092
1,133,972
1,337,329
1,553,729
Growth
17.02%
17.50%
17.93%
16.18%
797,000
885,000
1,001,000
1,138,000
1,281,000
UN Data - mid-year
841,000
943,000
1,069,500
1,209,500
1,345,000
Growth
12.13%
13.41%
13.09%
11.20%
Another more striking example of how the use of a wrong population figure can affect a
countrys world ranking is mobile phone penetration in the UAE. According to the
International Telecommunications Union (ITU), the UAE had the highest penetration rate in
the world in 2007 at 176.52%. ITU based the calculation of its indicator on a UAE population
of 4,380,000 (end 2007) while the most realistic estimate for end 2007 (released by the
Federal National Council FNC) was 6,493,929. Using the FNC estimate to calculate the
indicator for 2007 makes the UAE mobile penetration stand at 119.06%. UAEs global ranking
would dramatically drop from first to 16th. The indicator as calculated by the ITU is about 57
percentage points higher than the one calculated by Madar Research, using best official
estimates published by government sources.
Recalculating the same ITU indicator for other GCC member states reveals differences as big
as 56 percentage points (Qatar), 46 (Bahrain), 16 (Kuwait), 8 (Oman) and -1.58 (Saudi Arabia),
as detailed in the table below. Except for Saudi Arabia, mobile penetration rates as calculated
by ITU using old population figures or under-estimates have been greatly blown up, thus
unintentionally or carelessly giving the world wrong or unreliable information about the
mobile phone scene in the GCC.
MOBILE PHONE PENETRATION RATES IN GCC, 2007
(ITU VERSUS MADAR RESEARCH)
Country
As Per Official
Estimates
UAE
176.52%
119.06%
16
4,380,000
6,493,929
Qatar
150.52%
94.55%
54
840,000
1,337,329
Bahrain
Saudi
Arabia
Kuwait
148.80%
103.25%
45
750,000
1,080,869
114.76%
116.34%
26
20
24,730,000
24,395,000
97.32%
81.59%
53
78
2,850,000
3,399,637
Oman
96.15%
87.78%
55
68
2,600,000
2,848,000
*Based on official population estimates from government sources for end 2007 (or adjusted for end 2007)
83
Country
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source
UAE
14.00%
14.30%
15.36%
13.00%
UAE
3.74%
3.30%
2.93%
2.66%
Qatar
17.02%
17.50%
17.93%
16.18%
Qatar
12.13%
13.41%
13.09%
11.20%
Kuwait
8.62%
6.41%
6.81%
1.24%
Kuwait
3.05%
2.76%
2.49%
2.32%
Bahrain
7.98%
8.14%
8.10%
6.96%
Bahrain
Saudi
Arabia
Saudi
Arabia
2.22%
2.17%
2.13%
2.02%
2.52%
1.84%
2.37%
3.46%
UN Data
Public Authority for Civil
Information
UN Data
Central Informatics
Organization
UN Data
Ministry of Economy and
Planning
2.34%
2.23%
2.15%
2.09%
UN Data
Oman
3.27%
4.60%
7.07%
5.80%
* Population figures used to calculate growth are for year end or adjusted to year end by Madar Research
84
Country
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
4,320,000
4,924,800
5,629,046
6,493,929
7,338,140e
824,699
965,092
1,133,972
1,337,329
1,553,729
2,753,700
2,991,200
3,183,000
3,399,637
3,441,813
856,284
924,625
999,861
1,080,869
1,156,114
Saudi
Arabia
22,825,000
23,400,000
23,830,000
24,395,000
25,239,067
Oman
2,462,500
2,543,000
2,660,000
2,848,000
3,013,184
UAE
Qatar
Kuwait
Bahrain
Source
Based on statistics
prepared by the Federal
National Council
Qatar Statistics
Authority
Public Authority for
Civil Information
Central Informatics
Organization
Ministry of Economy
and Planning
Ministry of National
Economy
* Population figures used to calculate growth are for year end or adjusted to year end by Madar Research
Country
Nationals (%)
Expatriates (%)
UAE
13
87
Qatar
13
87
Kuwait
31
69
Bahrain
51
49
Oman
70
30
Saudi Arabia
73
27
Source: GCC government websites
The presence of such large ratio of expatriates to nationals affects national performance
indicators in so many ways and in such a dynamic manner from year to year.
85
PROPOSED REMEDIES
An independent government body should be given the sole responsibility of generating and
regularly updating an official database of all statistics about the countrys population and
various demographics, using best international practices and standards. Such a body, which
has already started to be established in two or three of the GCC countries, would also be
responsible for using the proper channels to regularly communicate census results,
population estimates and relevant demographic data to the United Nations and other global
organizations. The body should also monitor global research reports to ensure accurate data
are used.
With respect to the distortion or misrepresentation of national performance indicators caused
by large expatriate populations, especially the transient unskilled labor force, the use of three
levels of population figures would provide a more realistic account of the population
demographics and a much higher level of accuracy for the relevant indicators. The first
population level would include only nationals in each GCC country, while the second level
would combine nationals and expatriates, but excluding transient labor force. The third would
include the entire population, including the transient labor force.
87
Country
Nationals (%)
Expatriates (%)
Nationals
875,617
13.48%
Arab Expatriates
823,633
12.68%
2,367,732
36.46%
Pakistani
822,914
12.67%
Bangladesh
589,545
9.08%
Filipino
279,602
4.31%
Sri Lankan
104,623
1.61%
Iranian
100,309
1.54%
Nepalese
93,469
1.44%
Chinese
32,637
0.50%
Other Asians
151,234
2.33%
Other Africans
European and
Australian
72,453
1.12%
134,630
2.07%
North American
41,354
0.64%
South American
4,177
0.06%
6,493,929
100.00%
Indian
Total
Based on Statistics prepared by the Federal National Council for 2007 - end-year
88