Bayes theorem

1 Introduction
Bayess theorem is stated mathematically as the following
simple form:[1]

P (A|B) =

P (B|A) P (A)

P (B)

For an epistemological interpretation:[1]

For proposition A and evidence or background B,
A blue neon sign, showing the simple statement of Bayess theorem

P(A), the prior probability, is the initial degree of

belief in A.
P(A|B), the conditional probability, is the degree of
belief in A having accounted for B.

In probability theory and statistics, Bayes theorem (alternatively Bayes law or Bayes rule) relates current
the quotient P(B|A)/P(B) represents the support B
to prior belief. It also relates current to prior eviprovides for A.
dence. It is important in the mathematical manipulation
of conditional probabilities.[1] Bayess rule can be derived
Another form of Bayess Theorem that is generally enfrom more basic axioms of probability, specically concountered when looking at two competing statements or
ditional probability.
hypotheses is:
When applied, the probabilities involved in Bayess theorem may have any of a number of probability interpretations. In one of these interpretations, the theorem is used
P (B|A) P (A)
directly as part of a particular approach to statistical in- P (A|B) = P (B|A)P (A) + P (B|A)P (A)
ference. ln particular, with the Bayesian interpretation of
probability, the theorem expresses how a subjective de- For an epistemological interpretation:
gree of belief should rationally change to account for evFor proposition A and evidence or background B,[3]
idence: this is Bayesian inference, which is fundamental
to Bayesian statistics. However, Bayess theorem has applications in a wide range of calculations involving prob P(A),the prior probability, is the initial degree of beabilities, not just in Bayesian inference.
lief in A.
Bayess theorem is named after Rev. Thomas Bayes
(/bez/; 17011761), who rst showed how to use
new evidence to update beliefs. Bayes unpublished
manuscript was signicantly edited by Richard Price
before it was posthumously read at the Royal Society.
Bayes algorithm remained unknown until it was independently rediscovered and further developed by PierreSimon Laplace, who rst published the modern formulation in his 1812 Thorie analytique des probabilits.

P(-A), is the corresponding probability of the initial

degree of belief against A: 1-P(A)=P(-A)
P(B|A), the conditional probability or likelihood, is
the degree of belief in B, given that the proposition
A is true.
P(B|-A), the conditional probability or likelihood, is
the degree of belief in B, given that the proposition
A is false.

Sir Harold Jereys put Bayes algorithm and Laplaces

formulation on an axiomatic basis. Jereys wrote that
Bayess theorem is to the theory of probability what
Pythagorass theorem is to geometry.[2]

P(A|B), the posterior probability, is the probability

for A after taking into account B for and against A.
1

STATEMENT AND INTERPRETATION

Introductory example (epistemological interpretation)

are 15% and 75%. It is 5 times more likely that a woman

has long hair than that a man has long hair. We say that
the likelihood ratio or Bayes factor is 5:1. Bayess theorem in odds form, also known as Bayess rule, tells us that
Suppose a man told you he had a nice conversation with the posterior odds that the person was a woman is also
someone on the train. Not knowing anything about this 5:1 (the prior odds, 1:1, times the likelihood ratio, 5:1).
conversation, the prior probability that he was speaking In a formula:
to a woman is 50% (assuming the speaker was as likely
to strike up a conversation with a man as with a woman).
Now suppose he also told you that his conversational part- P (W |L)
P (W ) P (L|W )
ner had long hair. It is now more likely he was speaking P (M |L) = P (M ) P (L|M ) .
to a woman, since women are more likely to have long
hair than men. Bayess theorem can be used to calculate
the probability that the person was a woman.
3 Statement and interpretation
To see how this is done, let W represent the event that the
conversation was held with a woman, and L denote the
event that the conversation was held with a long-haired
person. It can be assumed that women constitute half the
population for this example. So, not knowing anything
else, the prior probability that W occurs is P(W) = 0.5.
Suppose it is also known that 75% of women have long
hair, which we denote as P(L |W) = 0.75 (read: the probability of event L given event W is 0.75, meaning that
the probability of a person having long hair (event L),
given that we already know that the person is a woman
(event W) is 75%). This is the conditional probability
that it was a woman who had the conversation on the train.
Likewise, suppose it is known that 15% of men have long
hair, or P(L |M) = 0.15, where M is the complementary
event of W, i.e., the event that the conversation was held
with a man (assuming that every human is either a man or
a woman). This is the conditional probability against that
it was a woman who had the conversation on the train.
Our goal is to calculate the posterior probability that the
conversation was held with a woman, given the fact that
the person had long hair, or, in our notation, P(W |L).
Using the formula for Bayess theorem, we have:

P (W |L) =

Mathematically, Bayess theorem gives the relationship

between the probabilities of A and B, P(A) and P(B), and
the conditional probabilities of A given B and B given A,
P(A|B) and P(B|A). In its most common form, it is:

P (A|B) =

P (B|A) P (A)

P (B)

The meaning of this statement depends on the

interpretation of probability ascribed to the terms:

3.1 Bayesian interpretation

Main article: Bayesian probability
In the Bayesian (or epistemological) interpretation, prob_
Relative size Case B Case B
Condition A
w
x

Total
w+x

Condition

y+z

Total

w+y

x+z

w+x+y+z

P (L|W )P (W )
P (L|W )P (W )
=
w
w+y
w
____
P(M
(A|B)
________ = ________
P (L)
P (L|W )P (W ) + P (L|M )P
) P (B) = w+y
w+x+y+z w+x+y+z

where we have used the law of total probability to expand

P (L) . The numeric answer can be obtained by substituting the above values into this formula (the algebraic
multiplication is annotated using extquotedbl extquotedbl, the centered dot). This yields

w
w+x
w
P (B|A) P (A) = ____ ________ = ________
w+x w+x+y+z w+x+y+z
B) P(B) / P(X) etc.

5
0.75 0.50
= 0.83,
0.75 0.50 + 0.15 0.50
6
i.e., the probability that the conversation was held with a
woman, given that the person had long hair, is about 83%.
More examples are provided below.

ability measures a degree of belief. Bayess theorem then

links the degree of belief in a proposition before and after accounting for evidence. For example, suppose it is
believed with 50% certainty that a coin is twice as likely
to land heads than tails. If the coin is ipped a number
Another way to do this calculation is as follows. Initially, of times and the outcomes observed, that degree of beit is equally likely that the conversation is held with a lief may rise, fall or remain the same depending on the
woman as with a man, so the prior odds are 1:1. The re- results.
spective chances that a man and a woman have long hair For proposition A and evidence B,
P (W |L) =

3
P(A), the prior, is the initial degree of belief in A.
P(A|B), the posterior, is the degree of belief having accounted for B.
the quotient P(B|A)/P(B) represents the
support B provides for A.

obtain the inverse probabilities. Bayess theorem serves

as the link between these dierent partitionings.

4 Forms
4.1 Events

For more on the application of Bayess theorem under the

Bayesian interpretation of probability, see Bayesian infer- 4.1.1 Simple form
ence.
For events A and B, provided that P(B) 0,

3.2

Frequentist interpretation
P (A|B) =
P(A B)
P(B|A)
P(A)

P(A)

P(A)

P(B|A)

P(B|A)
P(A)

P(A B)
P(A B)

P(B|A)

Use Bayes' Theorem to convert between diagrams

P(|) P() = P( ) = P(|) P()

Knowledge of any
3 independent values
is sucient to deduce
all 24 values

P(B)

P(B)

P(B)

P(B A)
P(A|B)
P(A|B)

P(A|B)
P(B)

In many applications, for instance in Bayesian inference,

the event B is xed in the discussion, and we wish to consider the impact of its having been observed on our belief
in various possible events A. In such a situation the denominator of the last expression, the probability of the
given evidence B, is xed; what we want to vary is A.
Bayess theorem then shows that the posterior probabilities are proportional to the numerator:

P(A B)

Knowledge of one
diagram is sucient
to deduce the other

P(B A)

P (B|A) P (A)

P (B)

P (A|B) P (A) P (B|A) (proportionality

over A for given B).
In words: posterior is proportional to prior times likelihood (see Lee, 2012, Chapter 1).
If events A1 , A2 , ..., are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, i.e., one of them is certain to occur but no two can
occur together, and we know their probabilities up to proportionality, then we can determine the proportionality
constant by using the fact that their probabilities must add
up to one. For instance, for a given event A, the event A itself and its complement A are exclusive and exhaustive.
Denoting the constant of proportionality by c we have

P(B A)

P (A|B) = c P (A) P (B|A)

P (A|B) = c P (A) P (B|A)

P(A|B)
P(B A)

Illustration of frequentist interpretation with tree diagrams.

Bayess theorem connects conditional probabilities to their inverses.

In the frequentist interpretation, probability measures a

proportion of outcomes. For example, suppose an experiment is performed many times. P(A) is the proportion of
outcomes with property A, and P(B) that with property B.
P(B|A) is the proportion of outcomes with property B out
of outcomes with property A, and P(A|B) the proportion
of those with A out of those with B.

and

Adding these two formulas we deduce that

c=

1
.
P (A) P (B|A) + P (A) P (B|A)

4.1.2 Extended form

Often, for some partition {Aj} of the event space, the
event space is given or conceptualized in terms of P(Aj)
and P(B|Aj). It is then useful to compute P(B) using the
law of total probability:

The role of Bayess theorem is best visualized with tree

diagrams, as shown to the right. The two diagrams parti- P (B) =

P (B|Aj )P (Aj ),
tion the same outcomes by A and B in opposite orders, to
j

P (B|Ai ) P (Ai )
= P (Ai |B) =

P (B|Aj ) P (Aj )

+y

+f Y (y|X=x)

DERIVATION

Area = 1, x

+f X(x)

In the special case where A is a binary variable:

0
0

P (B|A) P (A)
P (A|B) =

P (B|A)P (A) + P (B|A)P (A)

4.2

Area = 1

+x
+x

Diagram illustrating how an event space generated by continuous

random variables X and Y is often conceptualized.

Random variables
4.2.2 Extended form

+ fX,Y(x,y)

Strip volume
= P(Y=y)

Strip volume
= P(X=x)

+y

y
dy
dx
0
x

+x

Volume
= P(X=x Y=y)

A continuous event space is often conceptualized in terms

of the numerator terms. It is then useful to eliminate the
denominator using the law of total probability. For fY(y),
this becomes an integral:

P(Y=y|X=x) =

P(X=x Y=y)
P(X=x)

P(X=x|Y=y) =

P(X=x Y=y)
P(Y=y)

Diagram illustrating the meaning of Bayess theorem as applied

to an event space generated by continuous random variables X
and Y. Note that there exists an instance of Bayess theorem for
each point in the domain. In practice, these instances might be
parametrized by writing the specied probability densities as a
function of x and y.

fY (y) =

fY (y|X = ) fX () d.

4.3 Bayess rule

Main article: Bayes rule
Bayes rule is Bayess theorem in odds form.

Consider a sample space generated by two random variables X and Y. In principle, Bayess theorem applies to
the events A = {X = x} and B = {Y = y}. However, O(A1 : A2 |B) = O(A1 : A2 ) (A1 : A2 |B)
terms become 0 at points where either variable has nite
probability density. To remain useful, Bayess theorem where
may be formulated in terms of the relevant densities (see
Derivation).
P (B|A1 )
(A1 : A2 |B) =
P (B|A2 )
4.2.1 Simple form
is called the Bayes factor or likelihood ratio and the odds
between two events is simply the ratio of the probabilities
If X is continuous and Y is discrete,
of the two events. Thus

fX (x|Y = y) =

P (Y = y|X = x) fX (x)
.
P (Y = y)

O(A1 : A2 ) =

P (A1 )
P (A2 )

If X is discrete and Y is continuous,

O(A1 : A2 |B) =
P (X = x|Y = y) =

fY (y|X = x) P (X = x)
.
fY (y)

If both X and Y are continuous,

fX (x|Y = y) =

fY (y|X = x) fX (x)
.
fY (y)

P (A1 |B)
P (A2 |B)

So the rule says that the posterior odds are the prior odds
times the Bayes factor, or in other words, posterior is proportional to prior times likelihood.

5 Derivation

6.2

5.1

Coin ip example

For events

In the common subspecies, 5% have the pattern. The

rare subspecies accounts for only 0.1% of the population.
Bayess theorem may be derived from the denition of How likely is the beetle having the pattern to be rare, or
conditional probability:
what is P(Rare|Pattern)?

P (A|B) =

P (A B)
, if P (B) = 0,
P (B)

P (B|A) =

P (A B)
, if P (A) = 0,
P (A)

From the extended form of Bayess theorem (since any

beetle can be only rare or common),

= P (A B) = P (A|B) P (B) = P (B|A) P (A),

= P (A|B) =

5.2

P (B|A) P (A)
, if P (B) = 0.
P (B)

P (Rare|Pattern) =

P (Pattern|Rare)P (Rare)
P (Pattern|Rare)P (Rare) + P (Pattern|Common)P (C
0.98 0.001
0.98 0.001 + 0.05 0.999

1.9%.

For random variables

For two continuous random variables X and Y, Bayess 6.2 Coin ip example
theorem may be analogously derived from the denition
of conditional density:
Concrete example from 5 August 2011 New York Times
article by John Allen Paulos (quoted verbatim):
fX (x|Y = y) =

fX,Y (x, y)
fY (y)

fY (y|X = x) =

fX,Y (x, y)
fX (x)

= fX (x|Y = y) =

6
6.1

fY (y|X = x) fX (x)
.
fY (y)

Examples
Frequentist example
P(R P)
P(P|R)

(0.098%)

Assume that you are presented with three coins, two of

them fair and the other a counterfeit that always lands
heads. If you randomly pick one of the three coins, the
probability that its the counterfeit is 1 in 3. This is the
prior probability of the hypothesis that the coin is counterfeit. Now after picking the coin, you ip it three times
and observe that it lands heads each time. Seeing this new
evidence that your chosen coin has landed heads three
times in a row, you want to know the revised posterior
probability that it is the counterfeit. The answer to this
question, found using Bayess theorem (calculation mercifully omitted), is 4 in 5. You thus revise your probability estimate of the coins being counterfeit upward from
1 in 3 to 4 in 5.
The calculation (mercifully supplied) follows:

98%

P(R)
0.1%

P(C)

(99.9%)

P(P|R)
(2%)

P(P|C)

P(R P)

P (coin Biased) =

1
3

P(C P)

P (coin Fair) =

2
3

P (H|coin Fair) =

1
2

(0.002%)

(4.995%)

5%

P(P|C)
(95%)

P(C P)

(94.905%)

Tree diagram illustrating frequentist example. R, C, P and P

bar are the events representing rare, common, pattern and no
pattern. Percentages in parentheses are calculated. Note that
three independent values are given, so it is possible to calculate
the inverse tree (see gure above).

An entomologist spots what might be a rare subspecies

of beetle, due to the pattern on its back. In the rare subspecies, 98% have the pattern, or P(Pattern|Rare) = 98%.

P (HHH|coin Fair) =

1
1 1 1
=
2 2 2
8

P (HHH|coin Biased) = 1 1 1 = 1
P (coin Biased|HHH) =

P (HHH|coin Biased)P (coin Bi

P (HHH|coin Biased)P (coin Biased) + P (HHH|
1
1 +
1
3

1
3
1
8

2
3

1
3
10
24

4
5

6.3

7 Applications

Drug testing

P(U +)
P(+|U)

(0.495%)

99%

P(U)

0.5%

HISTORY

P(-|U)
(1%)

P(U -)

(0.005%)

Bayess theorem is signicantly important in inverse

problem theory, where the a posteriori probability density function is obtained from the product of prior probability density function and the likelihood probability density function. An important application is constructing
computational models of oil reservoirs given the observed
data.[4]

Although Bayess theorem is commonly used to determine the probability of an event occurring, it can also be
(0.995%)
P(+|U)
(99.5%)
applied to verify someones credibility as a prognostica(1%)
tor. Many pundits claim to be able to predict the outcome
P(-|U)
of an event; political elections, trials, the weather and
99%
P(U -)
even sporting events. Larry Sabato, founder of Sabatos
(98.505%)
Crystal Ball, is a perfect example. His website provides
free political analysis and election predictions. His sucTree diagram illustrating drug testing example. U, U bar, extquotedbl+ extquotedbl and extquotedbl extquotedbl are the cess at predictions has even led him to be called a pun[5]
events representing user, non-user, positive result and negative dit with an opinion for every reporters phone call.
We even have Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog,
result. Percentages in parentheses are calculated.
who tells us whether or not we can expect a longer winter
or an early spring. Bayess theorem tells us the dierence
Suppose a drug test is 99% sensitive and 99% specic. between whos on a hot streak and who is what they claim
That is, the test will produce 99% true positive results to be.
for drug users and 99% true negative results for non-drug
Lets say we live in an area where everyone gambles on
users. Suppose that 0.5% of people are users of the drug.
the outcome of coin ips. Because of that, there is a big
If a randomly selected individual tests positive, what is
business for predicting coin ips. Suppose that 5% of prethe probability he or she is a user?
dictors can actually win in the long run, and 80% of those
are winners over a 2-year period. 95% of predictors are
pretenders who are just guessing, and 20% of them are
winners over a 2-year period (everyone gets lucky once
P (+|User)P (User)
P (User|+) =
in a while). This means that 82.6% of bettors who are
P (+|User)P (User) + P (+|Non-user)P (Non-user)
winners over a 2-year period are actually long-term losers
who are winning above their real average.
0.99 0.005
=
0.99 0.005 + 0.01 0.995
P(U)

33.2%

P(U +)

8 History

Despite the apparent accuracy of the test, if an individual Bayess theorem was named after the Reverend Thomas
tests positive, it is more likely that they do not use the Bayes (170161), who studied how to compute a distridrug than that they do.
bution for the probability parameter of a binomial distri(in modern terminology). His friend Richard Price
bution
This surprising result arises because the number of nonedited
and presented this work in 1763, after Bayess
users is very large compared to the number of users; thus
death,
as
An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Docthe number of false positives (0.995%) outweighs the
[6]
The French mathematician Pierretrine
of
Chances.
number of true positives (0.495%). To use concrete numSimon
Laplace
reproduced
and extended Bayess results
bers, if 1000 individuals are tested, there are expected to
in
1774,
apparently
quite
unaware
of Bayess work.[7][8]
be 995 non-users and 5 users. From the 995 non-users,
0.01 995 10 false positives are expected. From the Stephen Stigler suggested in 1983 that Bayess theoby Nicholas Saunderson some time
5 users, 0.99 5 5 true positives are expected. Out of rem was discovered
[9]
before
Bayes.
However,
this interpretation has been
15 positive results, only 5, about 33%, are genuine.
disputed.[10]
Note: The importance of specicity can be illustrated by
[11]
[12]
showing that even if sensitivity is 100% and specicity is Martyn Hooper and Sharon McGrayne have argued
at 99% the probability of the person being a drug user is that Richard Price's contribution was substantial:
33% but if the specicity is changed to 99.5% and the
By modern standards, we should refer to
sensitivity is dropped down to 99% the probability of the
the BayesPrice rule. Price discovered Bayess
person being a drug user rises to 49.8%.

7
work, recognized its importance, corrected
it, contributed to the article, and found a use
for it. The modern convention of employing
Bayess name alone is unfair but so entrenched
that anything else makes little sense.
[12]

See also
Probabiliorism

10

Notes

[1] Computational Statistics. University of Utah College of

Engineering. Bayes theorem (also known as Bayes rule
or Bayes law) is a result in probability theory that relates
conditional probabilities. If A and B denote two events,
P(A/B) denotes the conditional probability of A occurring, given that B occurs. The two conditional probabilities P(A/B) and P(B/A) are in general dierent. Bayes
theorem gives a relation between P(A/B) and P(B/A).
[2] Jereys, Harold (1973). Scientic Inference (3rd ed.).
Cambridge University Press. p. 31. ISBN 978-0-52118078-8.
[3] Bayes Theorem: Introduction. Trinity University.
[4] Gharib Shirangi, M., History matching production data
and uncertainty assessment with an ecient TSVD parameterization algorithm, Journal of Petroleum Science
and Engineering, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/
article/pii/S0920410513003227
[5] Perry, James M. (July 18, 1994). Sabato, 'Dr. Dial-aQuote' of Political Scientists, Dispenses Advice to Candidates, Spin to the Press. Wall Street Journal. p. A14.
[6] Bayes, Thomas, and Price, Richard (1763). An Essay
towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chance. By
the late Rev. Mr. Bayes, communicated by Mr. Price,
in a letter to John Canton, A. M. F. R. S.. Philosophical
Transactions of the Royal Society of London 53 (0): 370
418. doi:10.1098/rstl.1763.0053.
[7] Laplace rened Bayess theorem over a period of decades:
Laplace announced his independent discovery of
Bayess theorem in: Laplace (1774) Mmoire
sur la probabilit des causes par les vnements,
Mmoires de l'Acadmie royale des Sciences de
MI (Savants trangers), 4: 621656. Reprinted
in: Laplace, Oeuvres compltes (Paris, France:
Gauthier-Villars et ls, 1841), vol. 8, pp. 2765.
Available on-line at: Gallica. Bayess theorem appears on p. 29.
Laplace presented a renement of Bayess theorem
in: Laplace (read: 1783 / published: 1785) Mmoire sur les approximations des formules qui sont
fonctions de trs grands nombres, Mmoires de

l'Acadmie royale des Sciences de Paris, 423467.

Reprinted in: Laplace, Oeuvres compltes (Paris,
France: Gauthier-Villars et ls, 1844), vol. 10, pp.
295338. Available on-line at: Gallica. Bayess
theorem is stated on page 301.
See also: Laplace, Essai philosophique sur les probabilits (Paris, France: Mme. Ve. Courcier
[Madame veuve (i.e., widow) Courcier], 1814),
page 10. English translation: Pierre Simon, Marquis de Laplace with F. W. Truscott and F. L.
Emory, trans., A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities (New York, New York: John Wiley & Sons,
1902), page 15.
[8] Daston, Lorraine (1988). Classical Probability in the Enlightenment. Princeton Univ Press. p. 268. ISBN 0-69108497-1.
[9] Stigler, Stephen M. (1983), Who Discovered Bayes Theorem? extquotedbl, The American Statistician 37(4):290
296. doi:10.1080/00031305.1983.10483122
[10] Edwards, A. W. F. (1986), Is the Reference in
Hartley (1749) to Bayesian Inference?
extquotedbl, The American Statistician 40(2):109110
doi:10.1080/00031305.1986.10475370
[11] Hooper, Martyn. (2013), Richard Price, Bayes theorem,
and God, Signicance 10(1):3639. doi:10.1111/j.17409713.2013.00638.x
[12] McGrayne, S. B. (2011). The Theory That Would Not Die:
How Bayes Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down
Russian Submarines & Emerged Triumphant from Two
Centuries of Controversy. Yale University Press. ISBN
978-0-300-18822-6.

11 Further reading
Bruss, F. Thomas (2013), 250 years of 'An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of
Chance. By the late Rev. Mr. Bayes, communicated by Mr. Price, in a letter to John Canton, A.
M. F. R. S.' extquotedbl, DOI 10.1365/s13291-0130077-z, Jahresbericht der Deutschen MathematikerVereinigung, Springer Verlag, Vol. 115, Issue 3-4
(2013), 129-133.
Gelman, A, Carlin, JB, Stern, HS, and Rubin, DB
(2003), Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition,
CRC Press.
Grinstead, CM and Snell, JL (1997), Introduction
to Probability (2nd edition) extquotedbl, American
Mathematical Society (free pdf available) .
Hazewinkel, Michiel, ed. (2001), Bayes formula,
Encyclopedia of Mathematics, Springer, ISBN 9781-55608-010-4
McGrayne, SB (2011). The Theory That Would Not
Die: How Bayes Rule Cracked the Enigma Code,

12
Hunted Down Russian Submarines & Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy. Yale
University Press. ISBN 978-0-300-18822-6.
Laplace, P (1774/1986), Memoir on the Probability of the Causes of Events, Statistical Science
1(3):364378.
Lee, PM (2012), Bayesian Statistics: An Introduction, Wiley.
Rosenthal, JS (2005), Struck by Lightning: the Curious World of Probabilities. Harper Collings.
Stigler, SM (1986), Laplaces 1774 Memoir on Inverse Probability, Statistical Science 1(3):359363.
Stone, JV (2013), download chapter 1 of Bayes
Rule: A Tutorial Introduction to Bayesian Analysis, Sebtel Press, England.

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External links

Bayess theorem at Encyclopdia Britannica

The Theory That Would Not Die by Sharon Bertsch
McGrayne New York Times Book Review by John
Allen Paulos on 5 August 2011
Visual explanation of Bayes using trees (video)
Bayess frequentist interpretation explained visually
(video)
Earliest Known Uses of Some of the Words of
Mathematics (B). Contains origins of Bayesian,
Bayes Theorem, Bayes Estimate/Risk/Solution,
Empirical Bayes, and Bayes Factor.
Weisstein, Eric W., Bayes Theorem, MathWorld.
Bayes theorem at PlanetMath.org.
Bayes Theorem and the Folly of Prediction
A tutorial on probability and Bayes theorem devised
for Oxford University psychology students
An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes Theorem by
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky

EXTERNAL LINKS

13

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Bayes theorem Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem?oldid=628825666 Contributors: AxelBoldt, Zundark, The Anome,

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