SUDBURY STAR EXCLUSIVE: DEAD HEAT FOR PROVINCIAL BY ELECTION

SUDBURY, December 22nd, 2014. A new Mainstreet Technologies poll of Sudbury residents finds
a dead heat between the Ontario Liberals and Ontario NDP, 31% to 28%, within the margin of
error. Federally, the story is different with Justin Trudeaus Liberals leading by 14%, 38% to 24%
over the NDP. With 602 respondents, the poll carries a margin of error of 3.98, 19/20.
Mainstreet asked Sudbury residents if they approved or disapproved of MP Glen Thibeaults
decision to quit the Federal NDP to run for the provincial Liberals. Almost half, 46%, disapprove
of the move.
"In the upcoming Provincial by-election in Sudbury, the Ontario Liberals carry a small margin
going in. The popularity of Kathleen Wynne and the Liberal brand means this seat is back in play
for newly announced Liberal candidate, Glenn Thibeault", said Quito Maggi, president of
Mainstreet Technologies. "Almost half of respondents disapproved of Glenn Thibeault's decision
to step down as MP. Whether this factor outweighs his personal popularity or is a significant
issue in a by-election is yet to be seen"
"Sudbury voters can expect a lot of attention next year with 2 by-elections and a general
election expected before October 2015."
For more information:
David Valentin, Media Relations
(613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreettechnologies.ca
Methodology
The poll surveyed a random sample of residents in the City of Sudbury by Interactive Voice
Response (IVR) on December 21st, 2014. The questions were; 1. Which party would you vote for
if a federal election were held today? (Party leaders and names, randomized, and undecided)
2. You may be aware that in the next year there will be a provincial by election in Sudbury for
MPP. If the provincial by election were held today, for which with party would you for? (Party
leaders and names, and independent option, randomized and undecided). 3. NDP MP Glen
Thibeault is resigning his Federal seat to run for the Liberal party in the provincial by election.
Do you approve or disapprove of his move? (Scale was randomly inversed). Respondents were
asked to indicate their age and their gender.
About Mainstreet Technologies
Mainstreet Technologies is an emerging national public research and complete campaign
services firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President
and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority PC
government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal
government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster in the Toronto
municipal election.

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED

19%
24%
38%
2%
16%

MARGIN OF ERROR: +/- 3.98

TOTAL RESPONDENTS: 602

AGE & GENDER BREAKDOWN

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
14%
19% 26%
CONSERVATIVE 16%
21% 23%
21%
31%
NDP
41% 36%
34% 43%
LIBERAL
1%
4%
4%
0%
GREEN
15% 13%
18%
19%
UNDECIDED

PC
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
INDEPENDENT
UNDECIDED

Male
16%
26%
38%
2%
18%

Female
21%
22%
39%
3%
15%

Male
12%
28%
32%
2%
12%
12%

Female
18%
27%
33%
2%
8%
12%

15%
28%
31%
3%
12%
11%

AGE & GENDER BREAKDOWN

PC
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
INDEPENDENT
UNDECIDED

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

10% 21%
16%
9%
23% 30% 29% 28%
36% 29% 29% 30%
7%
12% 2%
0%
13% 8%
13%
10%
12% 11%
15%
13%

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN

PC
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
INDEPENDENT

22%
29%
46%
3%

17%
32%
35%
4%
14%

NDP MP Glen Thibeault is resigning his Federal seat to run for the Liberal party
in the provincial by election. Do you approve or disapprove of his move?
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NEITHER

19%
13%
9%
37%
22%

TOTAL APPROVAL
TOTAL DISAPPROVAL
NEITHER

32%
46%
22%

PARTY BREAKDOWN
STRONGLY SOMEWHAT SOMEWHAT STRONGLY NEITHER
APPROVE APPROVE DISAPPROVE DISAPPROVE
PC
47%
28%
15%
5%
5%
NDP
17%
7%
59%
6%
11%
LIBERAL
3%
27%
50%
18%
1%
GREEN
10%
3%
32%
49%
7%
INDEPENDENT
28%
41%
12%
3%
16%
UNDECIDED
57%
22%
4%
11%
6%