Operations Analysis and Planning

Abstract
Decision making is said to be a psychological construct. This means that although we can
never "see" a decision, we can infer from observable behavior that a decision has been
made. Therefore, we conclude that a psychological event that we call "decision making"
has occurred. It is a construction that imputes commitment to action. That is, based on
observable actions, we assume that people have made a commitment to affect the action.

When we use logic to make decisions, we seek to exclude emotions, using only rational
methods, and perhaps even mathematical tools. The foundation of such decisions is the
principle of utility, whereby the value of each option is assessed by assigning criteria.
There is a whole range of decision-making that uses emotion, depending on the degree of
logic that is included in the process. Common emotional decisions may use some logic,
but the main driving force is emotion, which either overrides logic or uses a pseudo-logic
to support emotional choices (this is extremely common). Another common use of
emotion in decision is to start with logic and then use emotion in the final choice.
This paper presents a study of preferences for intuitive as against analytical decision
making and of judgments in a wide variety of situations. This paper links together the
ways in which the psychological processes can be applied in the context of decision
making. This assignment also briefly looks at the different psychological process that
could affect decision making.

Operations Analysis and Planning

"Somewhere along the line of development we discover what we really are,

and then we make our real decision for which we are responsible. Make that
decision primarily for yourself because you can never really live anyone
else's life."
-- Eleanor Roosevelt

Decision making is the cognitive process leading to the selection of a course of action
among variations. Every decision making process produces a final choice. It can be an
action or an opinion. It begins when we need to do something but know not what.
Therefore, decision making is a reasoning process which can be rational or irrational, can
be based on explicit assumptions or tacit assumptions.
Decision making is said to be a psychological construct. This means that although we can
never "see" a decision, we can infer from observable behavior that a decision has been
made. Therefore, we conclude that a psychological event that we call "decision making"
has occurred. It is a construction that imputes commitment to action. That is, based on
observable actions, we assume that people have made a commitment to affect the action.
Decision making is the study of identifying and choosing alternatives based on the values
and preferences of the decision maker. Making a decision implies that there are
alternative choices to be considered, and in such a case we want not only to identify as
many of these alternatives as possible but to choose the one that best fits with our goals,
desires, lifestyle, values, and so on.
Decision making can also be defined as the process of sufficiently reducing uncertainty
and doubt about alternatives to allow a reasonable choice to be made from among them.
This definition stresses the information gathering function of decision making. It should
be noted here that uncertainty is reduced rather than eliminated. Very few decisions are
made with absolute certainty because complete knowledge about all the alternatives is
seldom possible. Thus, every decision involves a certain amount of risk.

Operations Analysis and Planning

The Psychology of Decision Making

In our everyday life we try to achieve various goals through different activities, receive
information from our environment, learn about many things, perceive people and objects,
think about various issues, plan and take decisions, feel motivated to undertake activities
or to withdraw from those which we dont like. However, a moments reflection will
make it clear that from the very beginning of life all of us exist as a part of a system made
of person and environment.
Classical Conditioning (Pavlovian or Respondent Conditioning) is a form of
associative learning that was first demonstrated by Ivan Pavlov. The typical procedure for
inducing classical conditioning involves presentations of a neutral stimulus along with a
stimulus of some significance. The neutral stimulus could be any event that does not
result in an overt behavioral response from the organism under investigation. Pavlov
referred to this as a Conditioned Stimulus (CS). Conversely, presentation of the
significant stimulus necessarily evokes an innate, often reflexive, response. Pavlov called
these the Unconditioned Stimulus (US) and Unconditioned Response (UR), respectively.
If the CS and the US are repeatedly paired, eventually the two stimuli become associated
and the organism begins to produce a behavioral response to the CS. Pavlov called this
the Conditioned Response (CR). Classical conditioning has been demonstrated in
numerous species using a variety of methodologies. Popular forms of classical
conditioning that are used to study neural structures and functions that underlie learning
and memory include fear conditioning and eye blink conditioning
B. F. Skinners entire system is based on operant conditioning. The organism is in the
process of operating on the environment, which in ordinary terms means it is bouncing
around its world, doing what it does. During this operating, the organism encounters a
special kind of stimulus, called a reinforcing stimulus. This special stimulus has the
effect of increasing the operant -- that is, the behavior occurring just before the
reinforcing stimulus. This is operant conditioning: the behavior is followed by a

Operations Analysis and Planning

consequence, and the nature of the consequence modifies the organisms tendency to
repeat the behavior in the future.
According to Albert Bandura, behaviorism, with its emphasis on experimental methods,
focuses on variables we can observe, measure, and manipulate, and avoids whatever is
subjective, internal, and unavailable -- i.e. mental. In the experimental method, the
standard procedure is to manipulate one variable, and then measure its effects on another.
All this boils down to a theory of personality that says that ones environment causes
ones behavior.
Bandura found this a bit too simplistic for the phenomena he was observing -- aggression
in adolescents -- and so decided to add a little something to the formula: He suggested
that environment causes behavior, true; but behavior causes environment as well. He
labeled this concept reciprocal determinism: The world and a persons behavior cause
each other.
Later, he went a step further. He began to look at personality as an interaction among
three things: The environment, behavior, and the persons psychological processes.
These psychological processes consist of our ability to entertain images in our minds, and
language. At the point where he introduces imagery, in particular, he ceases to be a strict
behaviorist, and begins to join the ranks of the cognitivists. In fact, he is often considered
a father of the cognitive movement.
George Kelly organized his theory into a fundamental postulate and 11 corollaries. His
fundamental postulate says this: "A person's processes are psychologically channelized
by the ways in which he anticipates events." (Kelly. G, 1955 The Psychology of
Personal Constructs.) This is the central movement in the scientific process: from
hypothesis to experiment or observation, i.e. from anticipation to experience and
behavior.
By processes, Kelly means your experiences, thoughts, feelings, behaviors, and whatever
might be left over. All these things are determined, not just by the reality out there, but by

Operations Analysis and Planning

your efforts to anticipate the world, other people, and yourself, from moment to moment
as well as day-to-day and year-to-year.
Abraham Maslow developed a theory of personality that has influenced a number of
different fields, including education. This wide influence is due in part to the high level of
practicality of Maslow's theory. This theory accurately describes many realities of
personal experiences. Many people find they can understand what Maslow says. They
can recognize some features of their experience or behavior which is true and identifiable
but which they have never put into words.
Maslow is a humanistic psychologist. Humanists do not believe that human beings are
pushed and pulled by mechanical forces, either of stimuli and reinforcements
(behaviorism) or of unconscious instinctual impulses (psychoanalysis). Humanists focus
upon potentials. They believe that humans strive for an upper level of capabilities.
Humans seek the frontiers of creativity, the highest reaches of consciousness and wisdom.
This has been labeled "fully functioning person", "healthy personality", or as Maslow
calls this level, "self-actualizing person."
Maslow has set up a hierarchic theory of needs. All of his basic needs are instinctive,
equivalent of instincts in animals. Humans start with a very weak disposition that is then
fashioned fully as the person grows.
Sigmund Freud has been credited as the father of Psychology. According to Freud, the
conscious mind is what you are aware of at any particular moment, your present
perceptions, memories, thoughts, fantasies, feelings, what have you. Working closely
with the conscious mind is what Freud called the preconscious, what we might today call
"available memory:" anything that can easily be made conscious, the memories you are
not at the moment thinking about but can readily bring to mind. Now no-one has a
problem with these two layers of mind. But Freud suggested that these are the smallest
parts! The largest part by far is the unconscious. It includes all the things that are not
easily available to awareness, including many things that have their origins there, such as
our drives or instincts, and things that are put there because we can't bear to look at them,
such as the memories and emotions associated with trauma.
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Operations Analysis and Planning

Intuitive vs. analytical decision making

We live and work in an age of uncertainty and chaos. As Alvin Tofflers seminal work
Future Shock predicted in the early 1970sand as subsequent events have confirmed
the pace of change is accelerating. Shifting conditions support myriad unforeseen
opportunities. We are challenged to make decisions.
Decision making is arguably the single most important thing we do. A president resists
terrorists; an investor decides to sell stock. Making good, timely decisions is the highestleverage activity going. Thats why leaders and executives are paid royal sums.
Weve always known that the quality of our decisions determines our success in life. In
recent times, the need for good decision-making has become crucial. Our mediabombarded brains are confronted with as many choices in a single year as our
grandparents faced in decades. The Chinese curse May you live in interesting times has
come truewith a vengeance.

Intuition
The only real valuable thing is intuition.
-Albert Einstein
Brunswik (Brunswik, 1956) suggested that judgments and decisions can be made either
in an intuitive or an analytical mode. These notions were further refined by others such as
Hammond (1988) and Dunwoody, Haarbauer, Mahan, Marino, and Tang (2000). Current
thinking in cognitive psychology also supports them. Tacit knowledge has been
demonstrated in experimental work (Reber, 1989). Neuropsychological theory supports
the notion of implicit learning and tacit knowledge and a parallel between intuition and
implicit learning is of interest to consider. Intuition is of course a concept of longstanding
interest in philosophy (Osbeck, 1999).
Intuition is receiving input and ideas without knowing exactly how and where you got
them from. You simply know it is not from yourself. Like creativity, intuitive inspiration
often happens when someone virtually fuses in an activity, when one is highly focused on
the respective activity in a state of joy and fulfillment. Intuition can be trained and in its
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Operations Analysis and Planning

highest level leads into a conscious contact with non-incarnated beings, a process usually
called channeling.
Most of us are used to making intuitive decisions in our daily life: As soon as subjective
judgment is involved, rational reasoning is very difficult to apply. Typical examples
where intuition can play an important role in making decisions are: Choosing your life
partner, selecting the right car to buy, evaluation of a job, decision about an education,
selecting a meal when eating out, selecting the next book to read, decide how to dress for
today, and so on.
Intuitive decision making is far more than using common sense because it involves
additional sensors to perceive and get aware of the information from outside. Sometimes
it is referred to as gut feeling, sixth sense, inner sense, instinct, inner voice, spiritual
guide, etc. Many pages on this site are devoted to encourage and help people to use these
sensors for decision processes. It is related to developing a higher consciousness in order
to train these sensors and to make the process of receiving information intuitively a more
conscious one. People who can't accept the existence of such sensors may instead call it
tapping into collective intelligence" or collective unconscious".
Viewing decisions as the major impetus to action is questionable. Emotions and other
complexities often intervene, and in many real life situations it becomes necessary to
cope with such things after a decision has been taken, and to continue doing so for some
time in the face of unforeseen complications and difficulties. Yet, decisions remain an
important concern in the analysis of action, and the debate on how to make good
decisions has been extensive.

Classic Conditioning
The original and most famous example of classical conditioning involved the salivary
conditioning of Pavlov's dogs. During the initial stage of that experiment, a bell would
sound and a dog would immediately be fed some meat. With the repetition of this ringing
and feeding scenario, as soon as the dog heard the bell, it would salivate, expecting that it
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would be fed. With further repetition, the dog began to reflexively salivate upon hearing
the bell - even without the meat being present, which had been the initial stimulus for the
salivation. In essence, when presented with a familiar situation - hearing the bell Pavlov's dog reflexively and non-discerningly reacted with a behavioral pattern of
response - and strategy - that it perceived had worked in the past. Other scientists took
Pavlov's findings further, by theorizing that individuals seek out pleasurable experiences
and avoid painful ones. Based upon those premises, they asserted those individuals'
actions can be conditioned and reinforced, based upon the introduction of positive and
negative stimuli.
Classical conditioning works with people, too. Go to any shopping mall and watch what
happens when the blue light turns on. Cost conscious shoppers will make a beeline to that
table because they associate a good sale with the blue light. (And, the research proves
that people are more likely to buy the sale item under the blue light even if the item isn't a
good value.)
And classical conditioning works with advertising. For example, many beer ads
prominently feature attractive young women wearing bikinis. The young women
(Unconditioned Stimulus) naturally elicit a favorable, mildly aroused feeling
(Unconditioned Response) in most men. The beer is simply associated with this effect.
The same thing applies with the jingles and music that accompany many advertisements.
Perhaps the strongest application of classical conditioning involves emotion. Common
experience and careful research both confirm that human emotion conditions very rapidly
and easily. Particularly when the emotion is intensely felt or negative in direction, it will
condition quickly.
Damasio's experiment
Neuroscientist Antonio Damasio studied people who had received brain injuries that had
had one specific effect: to damage that part of the brain where emotions are generated. In
all other respects they seemed normal - they just lost the ability to feel emotions.

Operations Analysis and Planning

The interesting thing he found was that their ability to make decisions was seriously
impaired. They could logically describe what they should be doing, in practice they found
it very difficult to make decisions about where to live, what to eat, etc.
In particular, many decisions have pros and cons on both sides. Shall I have the fish or
the beef? With no rational way to decide, they were unable to make the decision.
So at the point of decision, emotions are very important for choosing. In fact even with
what we believe are logical decisions, the very point of choice is arguably always based
on emotion.
We talk about decisions that feel or seem right. When logical decisions are wrong, we
will often feel that this is so. Emotions are perhaps signals from the subconscious that tell
us a lot about what we really choose.
The id, the ego, and the superego
When making a decision of minor importance, I have always found it advantageous to
consider all the pros and cons. In vital matters, however, such as the choice of a mate or
a profession, the decision should come from the unconscious, from somewhere within
ourselves. In the important decisions of personal life, we should be governed, I think, by
the deep inner needs of our nature.
Sigmund Freud (1865 - 1939)
Freudian psychological reality begins with the world, full of objects. Among them is a
very special object, the organism. The organism is special in that it acts to survive and
reproduce, and it is guided toward those ends by its needs -- hunger, thirst, the avoidance
of pain, and sex.
A part -- a very important part -- of the organism is the nervous system, which has as one
its characteristics sensitivity to the organism's needs. At birth, that nervous system is little
more than that of any other animal, an "it" or id. The nervous system, as id, translates the
organism's needs into motivational forces called, in German, Trieben, which has been
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translated as instincts or drives. Freud also called them wishes. This translation from need
to wish is called the primary process.
The id works in keeping with the pleasure principle, which can be understood as a
demand to take care of needs immediately. Just picture the hungry infant, screaming itself
blue. It doesn't "know" what it wants in any adult sense; it just knows that it wants it and
it wants it now. The infant, in the Freudian view, is pure or nearly pure id. And the id is
nothing if not the psychic representative of biology.
Unfortunately, although a wish for food, such as the image of a juicy steak, might be
enough to satisfy the id, it isn't enough to satisfy the organism. The need only gets
stronger, and the wishes just keep coming. You may have noticed that, when you haven't
satisfied some need, such as the need for food, it begins to demand more and more of
your attention, until there comes a point where you can't think of anything else. This is
the wish or drive breaking into consciousness.
Luckily for the organism, there is that small portion of the mind we discussed before, the
conscious that is hooked up to the world through the senses. Around this little bit of
consciousness, during the first year of a child's life, some of the id becomes ego. The ego
relates the organism to reality by means of its consciousness, and it searches for objects
to satisfy the wishes that id creates to represent the organisms needs. This problemsolving activity is called the secondary process.
The ego, unlike the id, functions according to the reality principle, which says "take care
of a need as soon as an appropriate object is found." It represents reality and, to a
considerable extent, reason.
However, as the ego struggles to keep the id (and, ultimately, the organism) happy, it
meets with obstacles in the world. It occasionally meets with objects that actually assist it
in attaining its goals. And it keeps a record of these obstacles and aides. In particular, it
keeps track of the rewards and punishments meted out by two of the most influential
objects in the world of the child -- mom and dad. This record of things to avoid and

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strategies to take becomes the superego. It is not completed until about seven years of
age. In some people, it never is completed.
There are two aspects to the superego: One is the conscience, which is an internalization
of punishments and warnings. The other is called the ego ideal. It derives from rewards
and positive models presented to the child. The conscience and ego ideal communicate
their requirements to the ego with feelings like pride, shame, and guilt.

Analytical Decision Making

Critical Path Analysis
Critical Path Analysis is an extremely effective method of analyzing a complex project. It
helps you to calculate the minimum length of time in which the project can be completed,
and which activities should be prioritized to complete by that date.

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Where a job has to be completed on time, critical path analysis helps you to focus on the
essential activities to which attention and resources should be devoted. It gives an
effective basis for the scheduling and monitoring of progress.
The essential concept behind Critical Path Analysis is that some plan activities are
dependent on other activities being completed first. For example, you should not start
building a bridge unless you have designed it first!
These dependent activities need to be completed in a sequence, with each activity being
more-or-less completed before the next activity can begin. Dependent activities are also
called 'sequential' activities.
Other activity is not dependent on completion of any other tasks, or may be done at any
time before or after a particular stage is reached. These are non-dependent or 'parallel'
tasks.

Six Thinking Hats

The Six Thinking Hats technique enables you to break out of your habitual thinking style
and make better quality decisions. Six Thinking Hats was created by Edward De Bono
with the aim of looking at the effect of a decision from a number of important, different
perspectives, and modifying your decision accordingly. This decision making approach
can be successfully used individually or in a group.
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Six Thinking Hats' helps you make better decisions by forcing you to move outside your
habitual ways of thinking. As such, it helps you understand the full complexity of the
decision, and spot issues and opportunities to which you might otherwise be blind. People
are seeking quality everywhere except in the most important area - the quality of
thinking. We need better thinking methods in order to make full use of our available
intelligence and experience.
As organisations reduce the number of people employed, they need to get the maximum
benefit from those remaining, including the maximum output from their thinking.
Current thinking is dominated by adversarial thinking. The mode of discussion revolves
around argument, the purpose being to defeat your opponent and by doing so discover the
truth. Adversarial thinking serves a purpose. However, it is not the only way of thinking
and in some circumstances it has limitations. Six Thinking Hats offers a practical
alternative. It encourages co-operation, exploration and innovation.
According to de Bono, there are six metaphorical hats and the thinker can put on or take
off one of these hats to indicate the type of thinking being used. This putting on and
taking off is essential. The hats must never be used to categorize individuals, even though
their behavior may seem to invite this. When done in group, everybody wear the same hat
at the same time.
With the white hat thinking hat you focus on the data available. This covers facts, figures,
information needs and gaps. This is where you analyze past trends, and try to extrapolate
from historical data
.
Red Hat Thinking covers intuition, feelings and emotions. The red hat allows the thinker
to put forward an intuition without any need to justify it. You look at problems using
intuition, gut reaction, and emotion. try to think how other people will react emotionally.
Try to understand the responses of people who do not fully know your reasoning.

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Black Hat is the hat of judgment and caution. It is a most valuable hat. It is not in any
sense an inferior or negative hat. It allows you to eliminate the weak points in your plan,
alter them, or prepare contingency plans to counter them. Black Hat thinking helps to
make your plans 'tougher' and more resilient. It can also help you to spot fatal flaws and
risks before you embark on a course of action. Black Hat thinking is one of the real
benefits of this technique, as many successful people get so used to thinking positively
that often they cannot see problems in advance. This leaves them under-prepared for
difficulties.
The yellow Hat is the logical positive part of this decision making process. t is the
optimistic viewpoint that helps you to see all the benefits of the decision and the value in
it. Yellow Hat thinking helps you to keep going when everything looks gloomy and
difficult. It can be used in looking forward to the results of some proposed action, but can
also be used to find something of value in what has already happened.
The Green Hat stands for creativity, alternatives, proposals, what is interesting,
provocations and changes. This is where you can develop creative solutions to a problem.
It is a freewheeling way of thinking, in which there is little criticism of ideas.
The Blue Hat stands for process control. This is the hat worn by people chairing
meetings. When running into difficulties because ideas are running dry, they may direct
activity into Green Hat thinking. When contingency plans are needed, they will ask for
Black Hat thinking, etc. In technical terms, the blue hat is concerned with meta-cognition.

Six Thinking Hats is a good technique for looking at the effects of a decision from a
number of different points of view.
It allows necessary emotion and skepticism to be brought into what would otherwise be
purely rational decisions. It opens up the opportunity for creativity within Decision

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Making. The technique also helps, for example, persistently pessimistic people to be
positive and creative.
Plans developed using the 'Six Thinking Hats' technique will be sounder and more
resilient than would otherwise be the case. It may also help you to avoid public relations
mistakes, and spot good reasons not to follow a course of action before you have
committed to it.

Conclusion
People embrace the notion that their own decisions are likely to lead to desired results,
and that they have control over the outcomes of such personalized decisions. Personal
risk is usually rated as smaller than risk to others, especially for hazards where decision
makers perceive a large measure of personal control and ability to protect themselves
(Sjoberg, 2000).

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Such a tendency would be in line with what is called the fundamental attribution error in
attribution theory (Ross & Fletcher, 1985): people tend to regard their own behavior as
being responsive to the situation concerned, while they see others as acting out
stereotypical trait tendencies.
Thus, people judge personal risks as consistently smaller than the same risks to other
people (Drottz-Sjoberg, 1991). This finding is quite robust but not easy to explain. The
present findings may provide a clue, however, since they suggest that people viewtheir
private decisions as being made with more control over the outcome. Perceived control
may indeed be the crucial factor in accounting for the optimistic view that people have of
the personal as opposed to the general risks (Harris, 1996).
People are not always completely rational. When it comes to that which is precious to us
life, love, money we may be influenced by the terminology used and the emotions of
the situation than the basic risk-to-reward ratio. When considering your next investment
opportunity, think about the external factors that may be influencing your decision: Did
Warren Buffet recently invest in this stock or is it one that your best friend swears is the
next big thing? Are you still trying to make up for an investment where you didnt cut
your losses in time? Is this a good opportunity now but one thats even better in the
future, if you could wait? These answers to these questions may not change your mind,
but they are important to consider before you jump head first into what sounds like a
great opportunity.

RECOMMENDATION
The author of this paper feels that an rational approach to decision making with a bit of
intuition is the most preferred form of decision making. This assignment has been
researched with the view that further work can be done in the field of rational and
irrational decision making.
BIBLIOGRAPHY

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1. Robbins. S, Organizational Behavior- Tenth Edition
2. Brunswik, E. (1956). Perception and the representative design of psychological
experiments (2nd edition)
3. Baron, J. (1998). Judgment misguided: Intuition and error in public decision
making.
4. Seel. R, Anxiety and Incompetence in the Large Group- A Psychodynamic
Perspective.
5. Lieberman, M. D. (2000). Intuition: A social cognitive neuroscience approach.
Psychological Bulletin, 126(1), 109137.
6. de Bono, E. (1987). Six Thinking Hats.
7. Carr, A. Critical Theory and The Psychodynamics of Change. University of
Western Sydney (Nepean), Australia. \
8. Hill, W. (1985). Learning: A survey of psychological interpretations.
(4th.Edition.) Harper and Row.
9. Petty, R., & Cacioppo, J. (1981). Attitudes and persuasion: Classic and
contemporary approaches.
10. Sjoberg, L., & Magneberg, R. (1990). Action and emotion in everyday life.
Scandinavian Journal of Psychology
11. Eysenck, H. J. (1990) The Decline and Fall of the Freudian Empire, ScottTownsend Publishers, Washington D. C.,
12. Kelly. G, (1955) The Psychology of Personal Constructs.
13. Gratch, J (2000). Modeling the Interplay Between Emotion and DecisionMaking

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