Somalia, Yemen and Counterterrorism

Questions Asked by the Spanish Newspaper, ABC

To David H. Shinn
5 January 2010

Question: What is the big difference between al-Shabaab and the Islamic Courts Union?
Radicalism? The idea of international jihad?

Answer: The two principal leaders of the Islamic Courts Union, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh
Ahmed and Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, were forced out of power in Somalia early in
2007. They initially joined forces in exile in Eritrea where they formed the Alliance for
the Re-Liberation of Somalia in opposition to the Transitional Federal Government
(TFG) of Somalia. Sheikh Sharif then agreed to assume the presidency of the TFG early
in 2009 while Sheikh Hassan formed a new extremist group, Hizbul Islam that aligned
itself with al-Shabaab. Hizbul Islam had a falling out with al-Shabaab in 2009. Al-
Shabaab consists of some of the more militant elements of the original Islamic Courts
Union, supplemented by foreign jihadis and recruitments from the Somali diaspora. Al-
Shabaab has little in common with the Islamic Courts Union and is attempting to
establish a Somali caliphate in collaboration with al-Qaeda. It has also adopted tactics
such as suicide bombing and political assassination that most Somalis find abhorrent.

Question: What are the links between al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda?

Answer: Several al-Shabaab leaders have publicly acknowledged their ties with al-
Qaeda and underscored the relationship on jihadi web sites. A number of al-Shabaab
leaders are known to have trained with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Several hundred
members of al-Shabaab are non-Somali foreign jihadists. Al-Qaeda leaders and web sites
have also emphasized their ties with al-Shabaab.

Question: What are the links between Eritrea and al-Shabaab and between Yemen and
al-Shabaab?

Answer: The United Nations and the African Union have indicated that Eritrea is
supporting armed groups in Somalia engaged in undermining peace. This is presumably
a reference to al-Shabaab. In fact, the United Nations Security Council imposed
sanctions on Eritrea in December for this and other reasons. The last UN report on
Eritrean support for these groups in Somalia is dated December 2008. It would be useful
if the UN provided more recent documentation of Eritrea’s support for armed groups in
Somalia.

More than 200,000 Somalis have migrated in recent years to Yemen. Although the vast
majority of them are economic refugees, a few have probably been enticed to train with
Yemeni extremist groups. There are also small numbers of Yemeni jihadis fighting with
al-Shabaab in Somalia.
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Question: Why now and why the Horn of Africa?

Answer: Extremist activity is not new to Somalia. Al-Qaeda sent operatives there in the
early 1990s. They initially found it difficult to obtain the cooperation of the
individualistic and independent Somalis. A local extremist organization, al-Ittihad al-
Islami, did achieve some success in the mid-1990s and carried out several terrorist attacks
against neighboring Ethiopia. Al-Ittihad eventually disappeared, although some of its
followers can probably now be found in al-Shabaab. At least three of the al-Qaeda
organizers of the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam also
took refuge in Somalia for many years. Two of the three have been killed.

Somalia has been a failed state since 1991. It has historical ties to the Arab Gulf states
and is physically close to this region. It should come as no surprise that extremist
elements have taken advantage of the situation in Somalia.

Question: Who is the real “evil”? Yemen, Somalia or Eritrea?

Answer: Taken as a whole, none of these countries is evil. The vast majority of
Somalis, Yemenis and Eritreans want nothing to do with al-Qaeda or al-Shabaab. There
are small numbers of evil people in Somalia and Yemen who want to bring down the
current world order and replace it with their own version of a caliphate. The situation
concerning Eritrea is very different. The government is doing whatever it can to oppose
Ethiopia, in this case supporting groups in Somalia that want to defeat Ethiopia.

Question: Could Somalia and Yemen be the next Afghanistan and Iraq?

Answer: Largely because of its geographical location, history of extremist movements,

weak central government and rugged topography, Yemen could conceivably become the
next Afghanistan. Iraq was not a center of terrorist activity until the American
intervention, so I don’t see the parallel.

Somalia is a less likely candidate. Most Somalis are too independent of thought and
moderate in their Islamic beliefs. The country is more distant than Yemen from the
center of terrorist activity. The topography of Somalia is also less suitable for
maintaining secret training camps.

Question: In the Somali-Yemeni case, what should be the US government strategy?

Answer: It requires a two-pronged strategy of working with local governments and

security authorities to defeat those groups in Yemen and Somalia aimed at changing the
world order. Over the long term, it also requires a much stronger effort to reduce the root
causes that give rise to these extremist groups in the first place. Arguably, working to
reduce the root causes of the disease is even more important than supporting security
organizations that are trying to eliminate them. This can not be exclusively an American
effort. Every country in the world is potentially at risk from these groups that have no
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respect for civilization as it exists today. Spain has certainly experienced more than its
share of grief from such organizations.