FactCheck: do black Americans

commit more crime?

November 27, 2014

The claim

Its important to note that black men commit nearly half of all
murders in this country, which is astounding when you take into
consideration the fact that they only make up 12-13 per cent of the
population.James, 26 November 2014
The analysis
There were angry protests across America this week after a grand jury
decided a white police officer should not stand trial for the killing of black
teenager Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri.

FactCheck has already looked at the statistics on killings by law

enforcement officials. Though imperfect, the official figures suggest blacks
are disproportionately likely to die at the hands of police.
Several people have left comments pointing out that this is not necessarily
surprising or unfair, since blacks are also disproportionately likely to be
involved in violent crime in the US, thereby putting themselves in the firing
line.
One reader, James, wrote: Its important to note that black men commit
nearly half of all murders in this country, which is astounding when you take
into consideration the fact that they only make up 12-13 per cent of the
population.
So, given this fact, does it make sense that black men are
disproportionately involved in shootings with the police? Your graph is
appropriately proportionate, when you take into consideration the role that
the black population plays in, not just murder, but crime in general.
Sean said: If one group is more likely to be involved in that then they are
more likely to be killed by the police so they have nothing to complain
about if that is the case.
We thought wed check these claims out.
The analysis
Its true that around 13 per cent of Americans are black, according to the
latest estimates from the US Census Bureau.
And yes, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, black offenders
committed 52 per cent of homicides recorded in the data between 1980
and 2008. Only 45 per cent of the offenders were white. Homicide is a
broader category than murder but lets not split hairs.

Blacks were disproportionately likely to commit homicide and to be the

victims. In 2008 the offending rate for blacks was seven times higher than
for whites and the victimisation rate was six times higher.
As we found yesterday, 93 per cent of black victims were killed by blacks
and 84 per cent of white victims were killed by whites.
Alternative statistics from the FBI are more up to date but include many
crimes where the killers race is not recorded. These numbers tell a similar

story.
In 2013, the FBI has black criminals carrying out 38 per cent of murders,
compared to 31.1 per cent for whites. The offenders race was unknown
in 29.1 per cent of cases.
What about violent crime more generally? FBI arrest rates are one way into
this. Over the last three years of data 2011 to 2013 38.5 per cent of
people arrested for murder, manslaughter, rape, robbery, and aggravated
assault were black.
Clearly, these figures are problematic. Were talking about arrests not
convictions, and high black arrest rates could be taken as evidence that the
police are racist.

But academics have noted that the proportion of black suspects arrested by
the police tends to match closely the proportion of offenders identified as
black by victims in the National Crime Victimization Survey.
This doesnt support the idea that the police are unfairly discriminating
against the black population when they make arrests.
So why are black offenders and young black men in particular overrepresented in Americas crime statistics?
Judging from online comments, there is a wide spectrum of views on this,
from unapologetic racism to militant refusal to blame the problem on
anything but historic white racism.

Some criminologists think we could be simply confusing race for poverty or

inequality: black people tend to offend more because they tend to be more
disadvantaged, living in poorer urban areas with less access to public
services, and so on.
If you control for deprivation, people of different races ought to be similarly
predisposed to commit crime. Or thats the theory, at least.
There is a lot of research in this area, but a lot of it is contradictory.
This study of violent crime in deprived neighbourhoods in Cleveland, Ohio,
found that reductions in poverty led to reductions in the crime rate in
exactly the same way in predominantly black and white areas, suggesting
poverty, not race, is the biggest factor.
Other studies get different results.
All sociologists have suffered from the same basic problem: finding urban
white communities that are as disadvantaged as the poorest black
neighbourhoods, so that you can get a fair comparison.
Some thinkers play down the importance of poverty in favour of the violent
subculture theory.
This is the idea that some black communities, for some reason, have
developed cultural values that are more tolerant of crime and violence.
Some commentators on the unrest in Ferguson mostly right-wing,
though not all white seem to favour this idea, but naturally it remains
highly controversial.
The verdict
There is evidence in the official police-recorded figures that black
Americans are more likely to commit certain types of crime than people of
other races.
While it would be nave to suggest that there is no racism in the US criminal
justice system, victim reports dont support the idea that this is because of
mass discrimination.
Higher poverty rates among various urban black communities might explain
the difference in crime rates, although the evidence is mixed.
There are few simple answers and links between crime and race are likely
to remain the subject of bitter argument.
Posted by Thavam