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IREITINVESTOR.COM
BRAD THOMAS
EDITOR
IREITINVESTOR.COM
IREITINVESTOR.COM
Home is a HOLD
Home Properties (HME) continues to trade at an attractive valuation of 14.4x P/FFO. However, Im not convinced that the companys
focus suburban, B/B- apartments will boost profitability in 2015.
Challenging supply/demand conditions across HMEs predominantly Mid-Atlantic focused footprint should restrain relative
revenue/NOI growth. Im also concerned with HMEs consider-
IREITINVESTOR.COM
Highwoods is the only pure office REIT that did not cut its dividend
during the Great Recession and the companys healthy leasing
growth supports strong earnings potential.
Highwoods has continued to recycle assets i.e. selling the office
portfolio in my hometown (of Greenville, SC) while continuing to
improve the balance sheet by maintaining moderate leverage
(target D+PE/EBTDA of 5.6-6.3x).
Highwoods also has a healthy development pipeline of around
$349M of projects (9.0$ GAAP yield). In
addition, HIW has a land bank capable of
supporting over $800M of new development.
On an AFFO basis (22.1x based on 2015)
HIW is moderately expensive (peer group
20.4x); however the slight premium can be
explained by the high-quality balance sheet
and healthy balance sheet.
My BUY target (2015) for HIW is $44.00 and I
believe the current price of $41.61 is attractive.
The P/FFO multiple of 14.4 and dividend yield
of 4.1% also suggests it may time for me to
invest in Highwoods. My suggested entry price
is $42.00, so shares are inside of that now.
levels (24x P/FFO) and while I would like to own this stalwart
REIT, I will wait for a better price. Shares are trading today at
$199.07 with a dividend yield of 2.6%. Yikes!
IREITINVESTOR.COM
With the considerable headline drama associated with American Realty Capital Properties (ARCP) its easy to forget about
Agree Realty (ADC).
Some have argued that a management team is not as critical
IREITINVESTOR.COM
for a net lease REIT; however, the success of Realty Income (O)
proves that it is critical. Agree has a skilled management team
that has been in the net lease business for over two decades.
In addition, Agree boasts an attractive development pipeline
where it produces organic higher-yield investments to drive
earnings.
In Q3 Agrees occupancy was an impressive 98.5% with 58% of rents coming from
investment grade tenants. Agree reported
(in Q3) FFO of $0.55 per share with annual
FFO mid-point of $2.20. Agree is trading
at a discount today (P/FFO is 13.5x) and I
target shares to hit $34.00 in 2015. The
current dividend yield is 5.7%. I like Agree
at $30.00 (my suggested entry price) and
the dividend yield today is 5.7%.
Kimco increased the dividend by 6.7% to $0.24/share maintaining a conservative payout ratio of 82% (based on 2015). Im
glad to see Kimcos share price move and while I was fortunate
to get in under $20 I would like to see you wait for a modest pullback (look for an entry price of $24.00 or less). Kimco is now
trading at $24.46 with a dividend yield of 3.9%.
IREITINVESTOR.COM
TICKER
PRICE
MAR-CAP
LAND
10.89
CLDT
25.77
NYRT
Realty Income
LTC Properties
LTC
IRC
STAG Industrial
STAG
EPR Properties
EPR
P/FFO
DIV-YLD
S&P
0.084
37.9
3.3
NA
0.876
13.2
3.7
NA
11.01
1.786
22.5
4.2
NA
47.1
10.489
18.1
4.7
BBB+
41.86
1.459
16.3
4.9
NA
10.65
1.066
11.3
5.4
NA
24.29
1.565
16.5
5.6
NA
57.48
3.285
14.3
5.9
BB+
CSG
8.17
1.936
11.9
6.2
BBB-
TSX: WIR.U
10.45
0.308
10.4
6.7
NA
IRT
9.79
0.252
14.1
7.4
NA
ARCP
8.5
7.718
12.1
11.8
BBB-
Whitestone REIT
WSR
15.05
0.344
13.2
7.6
NA
GOOD
18.17
0.356
11.6
8.3
NA
UDF
19.34
0.592
15.7
8.5
NA
WHLR
4.37
0.039
19
9.6
NA
ORC
13.8
0.181
na
15.7
NA
Armour Residential
ARR
3.99
1.426
na
15.0
NA
Agellan Commercial
TSX: ACR.UN
7.94
0.186
7.8
8.6
NA
10.489
10
7.718
8
6
4
3.285
2
1.459 1.565 1.786 1.936
0.876 1.066 1.426
0.592
0.181 0.186 0.252 0.308 0.344 0.356
0 0.039 0.084
WHLR
LAND
ORC
TSX:
ACR.UN
IRT
TSX:
WIR.U
WSR
GOOD
UDF
CLDT
IRC
ARR
LTC
STAG
NYRT
CSG
EPR
ARCP
Based on P/FFO
40.0
37.9
35.0
30.0
25.0
22.5
20.0
19
18.1
16.5
16.3
15.0
15.7
14.3
14.1
13.2
13.2
10.0
12.1
11.9
11.6
11.3
10.4
CSG
GOOD
IRC
TSX:
WIR.U
7.8
5.0
0.0
LAND
NYRT
WHLR
STAG
LTC
UDF
EPR
IRT
CLDT
WSR
ARCP
TSX:
ACR.UN
16
14
11.8
12
10
8
6
4
3.3
3.7
LAND
CLDT
4.2
4.7
4.9
5.4
5.6
5.9
NYRT
LTC
IRC
STAG
EPR
6.7
7.4
TSX:
WIR.U
IRT
6.2
7.6
8.3
9.6
8.5
8.6
UDF
TSX:
ACR.UN
2
0
CSG
WSR
GOOD
WHLR
ARCP
ARR
ORC
20.5
I own a number of monthly paying REITs in my portfolio including CSG, O, STAG, and UDF. I sold ARCP a
few weeks ago. I am continuing to accumulate more
shares in all four of these on market weakness. I have
included Q&A with UDFs CEO in the newsletter this
month. To the left is a snapshot of the companys
share price performance since listing
19.5
19.34%
20
19
18.5
18
Jun 15
2014
Jun 29
2014
Jul 13
2014
Jul 27
2014
Aug 10
2014
Aug 24
2014
Sep 07
2014
Sep 21
2014
Oct 05
2014
Oct 19
2014
Nov 02
2014
9.2
8.8
8.5%
8.6
8.4
8.2
Jun 15
2014
Jun 29
2014
Jul 13
2014
Jul 27
2014
Aug 10
2014
Aug 24
2014
Sep 07
2014
Sep 21
2014
Oct 05
2014
Oct 19
2014
Nov 02
2014
10
IREITINVESTOR.COM
"While we still have extensive analysis to conduct, initial indications would suggest the forming a REIT is achievable and
attractive under certain circumstances," Smith said on the
Oct. 30 call.
Boyd and Pinnacle both operate regional casinos and have significant exposure to the Midwest. Pinnacle's heaviest geographic
exposure, thanks in large part to its $2.8 billion acquisition of
Ameristar Casinos, is in Missouri. It also has significant assets
in Louisiana. Boyd also has a significant footprint in Louisiana,
but its heaviest concentration of properties is in Las Vegas,
where it caters to the so-called locals market. See map top of
next page.
Boyd's 21 casinos aggregate about 1.2 million square feet
10.5
9.0
7.5
6.0
4.5
3.0
1.5
0
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
Data as of Nov. 10, 2014. Data not presented for periods with negative EBITDA values. Source: SNL Financial.
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
11
IREITINVESTOR.COM
12
IREITINVESTOR.COM
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
1 Nov
2013
1 Dec
2013
1 Jan
2014
1 Feb
2014
1 Mar
2014
1 Apr
2014
1 May
2014
1 Jun
2014
1 Jul
2014
1 Aug
2014
1 Sep
2014
1 Oct
2014
1 Nov
2014
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
1 Nov
2013
1 Dec
2013
1 Jan
2014
1 Feb
2014
1 Mar
2014
1 Apr
2014
1 May
2014
1 Jun
2014
1 Jul
2014
1 Aug
2014
1 Sep
2014
1 Oct
2014
1 Nov
2014
13
5%
RJ&A Estimates:
2013A: 0.7%
2014E: 1.2%
2015E: 1.7%
2016E: 2.2%
4%
3%
Current: 0.8%
2%
1%
0%
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
34.1
35.0
30.0
25.0
0.0
Malls
Lodging
27.7
28.9
29.4
17.3
15.0
5.0
26.5
22.5
20.0
10.0
25.9
5.9
Free-Standing
Industrial
Office
Apartments
14
REIT NAME
TICKER
PRICE
MAR-CAP
P/FFO
DIV-YLD
BEE
12.85
3.179
18.9
0.00
FCH
10.45
1.299
17.0
0.80
AHP
17.40
0.442
14.0
1.10
SHO
15.69
3.223
13.6
1.30
PEB
41.84
2.988
22.0
2.20
DiamondRock Hospitality
DRH
14.22
2.783
16.4
2.90
SoTHERLY Hotels
SOHO
7.58
0.08
6.6
3.40
CHSP
33.86
1.858
16.7
3.50
HST
22.67
17.168
15.2
3.50
CLDT
26.36
0.896
13.5
3.60
RU
32.01
4.226
13.5
3.70
RU Lodging Trust
Hersha Hospitality Trust
HT
7.26
1.457
14.9
3.90
LHO
38.96
4.055
15.4
3.90
INN
11.54
0.992
12.3
4.10
AHT
10.05
0.899
9.9
4.80
Above is a list of Hotel REITs and as you can see, I added a new
name SoTHERLY Hotels (SOHO) to the list (in the portfolio).
I will warn you that SOHO is a small-cap REIT with higher leverage levels than most other Hotel REITs. Im not recommending
SOHO at the current pricing level ($7.57) but I did add the
Virginia-based REIT to my SALSA list. See table on the top of
the next page.
17.168
0.080
0.442
0.896
0.899
0.992
1.299
1.457
1.858
SOHO
AHP
CLDT
AHT
INN
FCH
HT
CHSP
2.783
2.988
3.179
3.223
DRH
PEB
BEE
SHO
4.055
4.226
LHO
RLI
HST
Based on P/FFO
25.0
22.0
20.0
18.9
17.0
16.7
15.0
16.4
15.4
15.2
14.9
14.0
13.6
13.5
13.5
12.3
10.0
9.9
6.6
5.0
0.0
PEB
BEE
FCH
CHSP
HST
HST
HST
HT
AHP
SHO
CLDT
RLI
INN
AHT
SOHO
4.80
4.00
3.40
3.50
3.50
3.60
3.70
SOHO
CHSP
HST
CLDT
RLI
3.90
3.90
HT
LHO
4.10
2.90
3.00
2.20
2.00
0.80
1.00
0.00
1.10
1.30
0.00
BEE
FCH
AHP
SHO
PEB
DRH
INN
AHT
15
16
137%
140%
120%
100%
73%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0%
4%
6%
6%
9%
BEE
HT
INN
AHT
DRH
10%
15%
CLDT
CHSP
43%
48%
RLI
LHO
84%
26%
PEB
HST
SOHO
SHO
410%
400%
350%
300%
300%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
0%
BEE
0%
2%
8%
11%
AHT
INN
HT
CLDT
20%
21%
27%
44%
47%
50%
53%
CHSP
DRH
RLI
PEB
LHO
HST
SOHO
FCH
SHO
17
IREITINVESTOR.COM
2. Net Income, less capital gain from real estate sales, plus real
estate depreciation expense = FFO.
Generally due to a combination of rising land prices and due to inflation and increasing construction costs. In addition, rents generally
increase and properties are upgraded.
3. FFO, less normal and recurring capital expenditures, amortization of tenant improvements and leasing commissions, and
adjusting to remove rent straight-lining and any gains or loss on
the early extinguishment of debt = AFFO.
Finally, its important not to use P/E for REITs, or to compare P/E for
REITs with P/E for non-REIT stocks. By utilizing price to FFO (P/FFO)
valuation, analysts and investors can determine the trading history
of each REIT by itself and relative to the entire REIT sector.
Accordingly, payout ratios are based on AFFO (adjusted funds
from operations) because it more accurately measures cash flow
when compared to net income (due to depreciation), and given the
contractual nature of lease payments today, earnings growth rates
are higher than the S&P.
18
IREITINVESTOR.COM
19
UDF V Target States Are Among the Most Active in the U.S. Based on Single-Faintly Permits
STATE
UNIT
RANK
UNIT
RANK
UNIT
RANK
Texas
90,832
79,332
65,506
Florida
55,385
42,178
31,874
California
37,034
27,736
21,705
North Carolina
35,316
29,345
24,863
Georgia
24,810
17,297
13,817
Virginia
20,895
17,496
15,625
South Carolina
20,247
15,288
12,852
Washington
18,396
16,508
13,159
Arizona
18,386
16,189
10,306
10
Pennsylvania
15,505
10
13,432
10
11,790
BT: How does UDF compete with banks and other construction
lenders?
HG: The two primary challenges facing homebuilders today are
access to land and capital. According to the FDIC, lending for
construction and development loans has contracted by approximately 75% since the crisis began in 2007. Banks are either
140
11.6
11.4
138
11.2
11.0
136
10.8
134
10.6
10.4
132
10.2
10.0
130
9.8
9.6
Dec 2013
Jun 2013
Sep 2013
Mar 2013
Dec 2012
Mar 2012
Jun 2012
Sep 2012
Sep 2011
Dec 2011
Mar 2011
Jun 2011
Dec 2010
Jun 2010
Sep 2010
Mar 2010
Sep 2009
Dec 2009
Mar 2009
Jun 2009
Dec 2008
Sep 2008
128
Dec 2007
Mar 2008
Jun 2008
Texas Scale
created within the United States were created in Texas. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, metro area employment
levels have risen well above the pre-Recession peak: Dallas-Fort
Worths employment levels have increased by 7.9%, Austin by
15.9%, Houston by 11.8% and San Antonio by 9.1%.
U.S. Scale
nearly 15% of the activity in the United States. And this activity remains concentrated in the Texaplex Dallas-Fort Worth,
Houston, Austin and San Antonio. Nearly 98% of our portfolio is
in Texas. And the housing recovery continues to emerge in the
Southeast, where there is also strengthening job creation, in the
Carolinas and Florida. We have entered those markets earlier
this year and will continue to originate loans in those markets.
20
40
2Q14
4Q13
2Q13
4Q12
2Q12
4Q11
2Q11
4Q10
2Q10
4Q09
2Q09
4Q08
2Q08
4Q13
2Q14
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q07
4Q04
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
2Q03
4Q03
2Q04
4Q02
4Q01
2Q02
-60%
4Q07
-40%
2Q07
4Q06
100
-20%
2Q06
10
0%
4Q05
15
200 FDIC
SOURCE:
20%
2Q05
20
300
TX, FL Millions
25
400
40%
4Q04
30
2Q04
500
4Q03
35
2Q03
600
60%
4Q02
700
U.S. Millions
According to FDIC data, during the housing recession banks significantly reduced
their portfolios of construction and development loans and have only recently begun to
increase their construction and development lending.
21
IREITINVESTOR.COM
QUARTER
ENDED
9/30/2014
Net Income
$13,375.00
$36,564.60
77.00
5,115.20
(2,160.00)
$13,452.00
$39,519.80
Cash
$12,484.60
$29,968.10
DRIP
69.20
8,703.80
$12,553.80
$38,671.90
107.2%
102.2%
Listing expenses
Acquisition & origination fee expense
reduction1
Net income plus listing expenses, less
acquisition & origination fee expense
reduction (non-recurring items)
Distributions paid:
Reduction in general and administrative expense - related parties is from the reversal of an accrued
liability for acquisition and origination fees that will no longer be paid to the Trusts advisor
1
$'s in thousands
L.P. (UMTH LD), our asset manager, since March 2003 and
served as its President from March 2003 until July 2011. I
served as partner, Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of
UMT Holdings, L.P. (UMTH) and as President, Chief Executive
Officer and a director of UMT Services, Inc. (UMT Services)
since March 2003.
I am also the co-founder of United Development Funding, L.P.
(UDF I), United Development Funding II, L.P. (UDF II), United
Development Funding III, L.P. (UDF III) and United Development Funding Land Opportunity Fund, L.P. (UDF LOF). UDF
I, UDF II, UDF III and UDF LOF are affiliated real estate finance
companies that provide custom financing, including transactions involving real estate development and construction loans
and credit enhancements, and make opportunistic purchases
of land for residential lot development and home construction.
NINE MONTHS
ENDED
9/30/2014
22
According to SNL Financial, analysts calculated the capitalization rate on the AVIV transaction somewhere above 6.0%, and
the proposed deal follows a string of aggressively priced transactions, including Ventas Incs (VTR) $2.9 billion acquisition
ofAmerican Realty Capital Healthcare Trust Inc. (HCT) at
a roughly 6% cap rate, andSabra Health Care REITs (SBRA)
$550.0 million purchase of an independent living portfolio at an
even lower yield.
$7.3Bn
$3.0Bn (1)
$10.3Bn
$5.0Bn
$2.2Bn
(1)
$7.2Bn
31.5%
28.0%
(1)
30.5%
# of Total Facilities(2)
562
312
874
EBITDAR Coverage
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
Operator
(3)
% of Revenue
Operator
% of Revenue
Ark
10.5%
Daybreak
11.7%
Genesis
10.3%
Saber
11.4%
Communicare
8.7%
EmpRes
10.8%
Ciena
7.9%
Maplewood
9.5%
HHC
6.9%
Fundamental
7.6%
Guardian
6.0%
Preferred Care
5.7%
Signature
5.6%
Sun Mar
4.9%
Airamid
5.3%
Diversicare
4.8%
S&F
4.5%
Providence
2.8%
Diversicare
3.8%
Deseret
2.6%
69.4%
71.7%
23
302
243
102
530
Name
Current Title
Years Experience
101
72
71
45
more relevant.
Thomas: Can you tell us how the AVIV management team will
fit into the mix?
Pickett: Steven Insoft has agreed to join our senior management team. He will lead our new Chicago-based business
development team, which will augment our existing accomplished and highly successful merger and acquisition team in
Hunt Valley. Stevens Chicago staff includes four senior officers
and related support personnel, bringing added redevelopment
capabilities that can be applied to the entire portfolio.
Thomas: How will the merged entity create a lower cost of
capital?
Pickett: Our addition size and expanded diversification should
Name
Current Title
Years Experience
Taylor Pickett
CEO
21
Steven Insoft
Dan Booth
COO
25
Sam Kovitz
CFO
19
Steve Levin
35
Jeff Marshall
CAO
13
Josh Kochek
SVP, Investment
14
SVP, Operations
14
Bob Stephenson
Lee Crabill Jr.
Mike Ritz
Megan Krull
President / COO
25
21
34
32
24
25
MKT CAP
NO. OF
PROP
P/B
P/FFO
FFO
PAYOUT
FFO/SH
GROWTH
DIV YLD
DEBT /
EBITDA
$1,059,288,073
157
2.5
11.9
59.9%
5.32%
9.0
58%
$20,322,683,725
1500
2.4
16.5
66.4%
4.20%
6.2
$228,442,784
74
2.1
19.9
136.4%
7.45%
9.3
2.30
16.12
88%
5.7%
8.17
54%
Average
49%
27%
51%
45%
77%
66%
28%
60%
41%
SECURITY
SERIES
SYMBOL
PAR
PX
CY
SY
CALL DATE
YTC
RANK
IRC 6.95
IRCpB
$25.00
$25.76
6.76%
6.79%
10/16/2019
6.30%
Preferred
Ventas Inc
VTR 5.45
VTRB
$25.00
$24.81
5.49%
5.56%
3/7/2018
6.02%
Sr Unsecured
UMH 8 1/4
UMHpA
$25.00
$26.28
7.88%
7.89%
5/26/2016
4.62%
Preferred
$25.62
6.71%
6.74%
Average
5.65%
26
EXPOSURE
COUPON
CHG MOM
Apartments
Exposure
Coupon
Chg MoM
Diversified
4.76%
7.44
-0.37%
Hotels
19.05%
7.07
1.10%
Manufactured Homes
7.14%
7.75
-0.55%
Office Property
4.76%
6.94
-0.37%
Regional Malls
16.67%
7.25
-1.28%
Shopping Centers
9.52%
6.88
-0.73%
Single Tenant
19.05%
7.04
1.10%
Storage
4.76%
6.63
-0.37%
Warehouse/Industr
4.76%
7.06
-0.37%
Mortgage
2.38%
8.88
-0.18%
Grand Total
100%
7.167
2.38% 2.38%
4.76%
4.76%
4.76%
19.05%
4.76%
7.14%
19.05%
4.76%
9.52%
REITS-Apartments
REITS-Diversified
REITS-Hotels
REITS-Manufactured Homes
REITS-Office Property
REITS-Regional Malls
16.67%
REITS-Shopping Centers
REITS-Single Tenant
REITS-Storage
REITS-Warehouse/Industr
REITS-Mortgage
REITS-Healthcare
27
As some of you know, I have started to build my own REIT portfolio. Yes, that means I have skin in the game and although
Im starting small, I intend to build a REIT portfolio that provides
durable income for years to come. So I believe I have a tremendous advantage over ordinary investors because I study REITs
on a daily basis, not for the purpose to be a day trader, but
more so to stay actively engaged with the REIT sector and
make the most intelligent picks. At the end of the newsletter I
have provided you with my portfolio of REITs to date.
My Bullish Picks:
Every month I will include three different REIT portfolios and
each portfolio is geared for different investor profiles:
(1) SWAN The sleep well at night portfolio is aimed to
benefit the conservative investor, often a retiree, who is interested in Rule #1 DONT LOSE MONEY AT ALL COSTS. This
portfolio will include blue chip REITs and other REITs that have
demonstrated exceptional risk management attributes.
(2) SALSA The SALSA portfolio is not a portfolio of speculative
companies but more of a growth portfolio that is aimed to produce
higher total returns (than the SWAN). There will be some REITs in
the SALSA portfolio that you many not own individually (like a hot
pepper); however, the hot ingredients in the SALSA portfolio will
enable investors to take on medium risk for higher returns.
11.45
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
2.68 2.84
2.20 2.34 2.63
3.25 3.42
4.78
4.09 4.57 4.60 4.63 4.68 4.68
5.74 6.10
7.01 7.42
6.19 6.22 6.42
8.31
0.0
PEB GPT GGP SKT TCO EXR DDR ARE SOHO CLDT BRX ROIC HIW HCN SUI HME HTA BMR DLR IRC EXL OHI STAG DOC EPR LXP MPW CSG BXMT UMH UDF ARCP
28
SALSA PORTFOLIO
CURRENT
+/11/18/14 TARGET
TICKER
PRICE
HCN
60.00
72.17
20.3%
ARE
70.00
82.94
18.5%
Physicians Realty
DOC
13.25
15.68
18.3%
Chatham Lodging
CLDT
22.50
26.44
17.5%
General Growth
GGP
22.00
25.85
17.5%
MPW
11.50
13.51
17.5%
Digital Realty
DLR
60.00
69.41
15.7%
STAG Industrial
STAG
21.00
23.59
12.3%
SKT
32.00
35.87
12.1%
EPR Properties
EPR
50.00
56.02
12.0%
OHI
34.00
37.71
10.9%
PEB
38.00
41.85
10.1%
BXMT
26.00
28.55
9.8%
GPT
5.50
5.99
8.9%
15.00
16.20
8.0%
UMH Properties
9.00
9.70
7.8%
Blackstone Mortgage
Gramercy Property Trust
NOTE
HTA
11.50
12.39
7.7%
BrixMor Properties
BRX
22.00
23.68
7.6%
SoTHERLY Hotels
SOHO
7.00
7.49
7.0%
BioMed Realty
BMR
20.00
21.37
6.9%
Sun Communities
SUI
53.00
56.51
6.6%
DDR Corp.
DDR
17.00
18.12
6.6%
Taubman Centers
TCO
72.00
76.04
5.6%
Home Properties
HME
60.00
63.12
5.2%
Extra Space
EXR
55.00
57.79
5.1%
Highwoods Properties
HIW
40.00
41.55
3.9%
BUY NOW
UDF
19.00
19.73
3.8%
BUY NOW
Excel Trust
EXL
12.50
12.74
1.9%
BUY NOW
IRC
10.75
10.53
-2.0%
BUY NOW
CSG
8.68
7.95
-8.4%
LXP
12.23
10.98
-10.2%
BUY NOW
ARCP
12.00
8.73
-27.3%
UMH
29
ACC, O, HCP, and WPC. While attending REITWorld a few days ago I interviewed ACCs CEO,
Bill Bayless. I was impressed with his knowledge of the campus sector and his record for
driving shareholder value. I also recently moved
my target for WPC up to $65 as I believe the
New York-based REIT will continue to grow its
global footprint driven by opportunistic sale/
leaseback deals.
I have 5 REITs on the NEAR BUY list (shaded
in yellow): HTA, BMR, TCO, HCP, and EXR. I
already own several of these REITs; however, I
have been looking at adding BMR when I see a
pullback in price. Theres a good chance that I
will be adding more shares in EXR as I believe
the fundamentals have given me more confidence that dividends will continue to rise.
Now here are the SWANs including their
respective dividend yields.
You can review the complete list of SWAN
REITs at the end of this article and also the star
rating chart.
TARGET CURRENT
+/PRICE
9/18/14 TARGET
SWAN PORTFOLIO
TICKER
ESS
145.00
HCN
55.00
72.17
31.2%
Regency Centers
REG
49.00
60.44
23.3%
Weingarten Realty
WRI
30.00
35.93
19.8%
Simon Property
SPG
150.00
178.48
19.0%
OHI
32.00
37.71
17.8%
NNN
32.00
37.62
17.6%
Digital Realty
DLR
60.00
69.41
15.7%
Monmouth REIT
MNR
9.50
10.93
15.1%
Kimco Realty
KIM
22.00
24.75
12.5%
SKT
32.00
35.87
12.1%
Ventas
VTR
62.00
68.80
11.0%
HTA
11.50
12.39
7.7%
BioMed Realty
BMR
20.00
21.37
6.9%
Taubman Centers
TCO
72.00
76.04
5.6%
Extra Space
EXR
55.00
57.79
5.1%
HCP, Inc.
HCP
42.00
44.04
4.9%
ACC
37.00
38.76
4.8%
BUY Now
44.00
46.07
4.7%
BUY NOW
WPC
65.00
66.05
1.6%
Moved to $65.00
Realty Income
WP Carey
200.52
NOTE
38.3%
TARGET
CURRENT
+/-
BioMed Realty
BMR
21.25
55.22
159.9%
Digital Realty
DLR
58.00
63.02
8.7%
Realty Income
44.00
64.17
45.8%
HCP
42.00
38.65
-8.0%
HCP, Inc.
30
5.0
4.0
3.11 3.25
2.91
2.94
3.0 2.59 2.68
3.62
4.22
3.88 3.92
2.0
1.0
0
ESS
SKT
EXR
WRI
KIM
ACC
VTR
DLR
HCP MNR
OHI
WPC
COMMENTS
Residential
American Campus Communities (ACC)
***
****
****
***
Necessity-proof tenants
***
****
****
***
***
****
****
***
****
***
****
****
***
***
****
Shopping Centers
Mall
Self Storage
Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR)
Triple Net
Data Sector
Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR)
Healthcare
Industrial
Monmouth Real Estate (MNR)
**
A sense of humility is a
quality I have observed
in every leader I have
deeply admired.
DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER
31
32
TICKER
DIV/
SHARE
FFO/
SHARE
PAYOUT
RATIO
FRT
3.30
4.93
67%
HCP
2.18
3.02
72%
UHT
na
na
na
NNN
1.65
2.04
81%
ESS
5.11
8.38
61%
SKT
0.95
1.95
49%
2.20
2.61
84%
THREE D PORTFOLIO
UBA
1.01
1.13
89%
WP Carey (WPC)
WPC
3.60
4.34
83%
OHI
2.08
2.76
75%
NHI
3.08
4.21
73%
SNH
1.56
1.75
89%
ELS
1.30
2.73
48%
DLR
3.32
4.9
68%
HCN
3.18
4.13
77%
MPW
0.85
1.06
80%
VTR
2.97
4.42
67%
MNR
0.60
0.56
107%
TCO
2.16
3.67
59%
THREE D PORTFOLIO
A successful man is
one who can lay a
firm foundation with
the bricks others have
thrown at him.
DAVID BRINKLEY
RECENT PRICE
% FROM
TARGET
DIV-YLD
P/FFO
NA
5.54
16.7
NA
NA
7.15
13.3
BBB-
27.9%
2.77
27.3
BBB
24.3%
2.85
24.8
A-
24.1%
4.71
17.8
BBB
17.7%
4.76
18.3
NA
17.0%
2.94
17.5
NA
5.03
14.6
NA
4.51
18.6
BBB+
14.9%
5.48
14.8
BB+
13.2%
5.59
17.9
NA
5.27
13.1
BBB
6.31
33.3
BB
TICKER
MY TARGET
UHT
NA
48.10
SNH
NA
22.32
ESS
145.00
201.21
FRT
100.00
132.13
HCN
55.00
72.43
UBA
18.00
21.87
ELS
40.00
48.22
NHI
55.00
66.24
17.0%
NNN
32.00
37.78
15.3%
OHI
32.00
37.59
MNR
9.50
10.95
DLR
60.00
69.01
13.1%
MPW
12.00
13.53
11.3%
S&P
SKT
32.00
35.94
11.0%
2.81
18.2
BBB+
VTR
62.00
69.03
10.2%
4.38
15.5
BBB+
TCO
72.00
76.30
5.6%
2.91
23.2
NA
HCP
42.00
44.04
4.6%
5.12
14.6
BBB+
44.00
46.11
4.6%
5.00
17.2
BBB+
WP Carey (WPC)
WPC
65.00
66.53
2.3%
5.86
15.9
BBB
5.41
3.25
11.45
18.12
35.87
76.04
25.85
57.79
6,513
3,440
4,815
22,854
6,723
6.22
5.72
4.09
2.20
10.98
5.99
69.41
12.39
37.71
82.94
21.37
72.17
15.68
13.51
23.59
7.95
41.55
2,550
744
9,406
3,060
4,805
5,972
4,219
23,648
743
2,330
1,520
1,884
3,792
3.47
8.31
7.49
19.73
28.55
79.18
604.15
1646.75
7.01
3.63
41.85
26.44
2,989
898.91
6.42
5.74
4.57
4.68
3.47
5.52
4.68
4.78
2.34
6.19
6.10
8.73
56.02
7,927
3,202
2.63
2.84
2.68
3.42
3.80
3.95
5.49
16.20
12.74
779
23.68
10.53
1,054
4.63
7,022
63.12
3,621
4.60
7.42
1,506
9.70
56.51
MARKET CAPITALIZATION
($M)*
229
CLOSING PRICE
($)*
2,713
-0.79
42.86
14.29
43.75
0.00
-16.00
8.33
5.00
NM
3.92
6.38
10.77
8.51
0.00
6.41
NM
13.33
8.24
10.70
17.50
25.00
8.00
6.67
14.81
NA
6.67
2.94
0.00
4.29
3.17
0.00
NA
NA
20.00
NA
34.85
60.71
74.12
NA
87.50
NM
78.71
62.50
60.00
69.86
84.56
68.03
87.50
60.71
85.50
125.00
65.28
NA
62.07
46.15
50.00
42.55
72.73
125.00
59.38
64.60
71.43
EX-DIVIDEND DATE
9/26/14
12/12/14
12/11/14
11/25/14
9/26/14
11/13/14
3/27/15
3/27/15
12/2/14
10/15/14
9/26/14
9/26/14
10/29/14
12/24/14
12/11/14
9/26/14
9/26/14
10/29/14
11/5/14
9/11/14
12/11/14
9/11/14
10/28/14
12/12/14
1/2/15
12/11/14
12/29/14
10/29/14
11/6/14
9/26/14
11/13/14
NA
NA
7.8
NA
14.1
13.9
11.1
NA
12.8
57.2
15.4
12.6
15.4
11.7
17.1
12.8
36.0
8.7
12.7
15.7
17.9
NA
21.0
15.7
13.5
11.8
16.7
21.0
10.3
12.9
13.9
NA
70.96
37.65
17.14
35.15
43.48
33.11
43.44
17.93
32.04
40.95
38.00
34.57
34.70
32.82
39.07
47.16
33.41
42.66
25.66
42.96
27.98
30.43
44.96
49.15
32.67
39.90
44.22
38.62
34.40
45.03
NA
NA
12
78
31
285
132
238
111
64
1,228
110
185
508
295
131
117
235
231
3,972
810
140
24
45
385
522
58
40
136
121
184
88
NUMBER OF PROPERTIES
(ACTUAL)1
* DATA AS OF 11/17/2014 | YEAR-OVER-YEAR GROWTH AS OF THE MOST RECENT QUARTER ENDED. | 1DATA AS OF MOST RECENT QUARTER ENDED. | NA EQUALS DATA NOT AVAILABLE AND NM SIGNIFIES NON-MEANINGFUL DATA SOURCE: SNL FINANCIAL
Residential
UMH Properties Inc. (UMH)
Sun Communities (SUI)
Home Properties (HME)
Shopping Centers
Inland Real Estate Corp. (IRC)
Excel Trust Inc. (EXL)
Retail Opportunity Investments (ROIC)
BrixMor (BRX)
DDR Corp. (DDR)
Mall
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT)
Taubman Centers Inc. (TCO)
General Growth Properties (GGP)
Self Storage
Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR)
Triple Net
American Realty Capital Ppts (ARCP)
EPR Properties (EPR)
Lexington Realty Trust (LXP)
Gramercy Property Trust (GPT)
Data Sector
Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR)
Healthcare
Healthcare Trust of America (HTA)
Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI)
Alexandria Real Estate (ARE)
BioMed Realty (BMR)
Health Care REIT (HCN)
Physicians Realty (DOC)
Medical Properties Trust (MPW)
Industrial / Office
STAG Industrial Inc. (STAG)
Chambers Street Group (CSG)
Highwoods Properties (HIW)
Hotels
Peeblebrook Hotels (PEB)
Chatham Lodging (CLDT)
SoTHERLY Hotels (SOHO)
Mortgage REITs
United Development Funding (UDF)
Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT)
SALSA List
IREITINVESTOR.COM
82.20
NA
73.10
NA
90.00
91.00
97.30
94.80
NA
95.40
NA
90.20
94.00
NA
91.80
93.00
99.00
97.60
99.00
98.80
NA
95.60
89.20
97.70
95.60
92.70
97.40
90.80
94.30
94.50
92.50
21.93
NA
44.28
32.54
42.12
18.43
0.44
12.16
9.35
35.95
25.40
16.63
32.88
24.67
22.59
53.59
32.98
6.74
15.35
-28.52
39.68
27.68
16.84
9.00
13.24
20.73
14.51
15.58
6.30
20.88
42.16
10.54
189.22
NA
274.12
187.57
143.20
65.36
NA
175.66
73.38
NA
71.36
38.07
39.48
166.86
NA
25.54
119.56
74.91
54.31
6.25
177.59
109.38
35.66
39.53
77.71
NA
57.10
36.27
75.70
31.47
85.84
25.93
33
3.25
4.47
35.93
178.48
35.87
76.04
57.79
4,393.3
55,468.4
3,439.9
4,815.1
6,722.8
4.78
4.68
66.05
69.41
6,870.2
9,405.9
10.93
617.3
5.52
37.71
72.17
4,805.3
21.37
4,219.3
23,648.2
4.68
68.80
20,249.1
5.49
4.57
4.22
4.94
12.39
44.04
3,059.7
20,285.7
5.69
4.77
37.62
46.07
4,961.7
10,259.2
2.84
2.68
2.91
3.62
3.11
3.88
24.75
60.44
5,635.7
2.59
3.92
DIVIDEND YIELD
(%)*
10,182.8
38.76
200.52
4,074.4
CLOSING PRICE
($)*
12,821.7
DIVIDEND GROWTH
RATE (%)
0.00
3.92
8.51
6.38
8.21
3.81
0.00
6.41
7.14
0.69
3.70
17.50
8.00
6.67
13.04
6.56
1.62
7.14
7.44
5.56
EX-DIVIDEND DATE
11/13/14
10/29/14
9/26/14
9/10/14
11/6/14
12/24/14
12/11/14
9/26/14
10/30/14
10/29/14
9/11/14
9/11/14
10/28/14
11/12/14
12/4/14
11/17/14
12/30/14
9/26/14
11/10/14
88.37
78.71
69.86
62.50
70.39
66.46
84.56
68.03
104.65
85.68
80.77
65.28
62.07
46.15
68.42
62.50
67.14
57.69
62.50
15.4
11.7
12.6
15.0
12.1
17.1
12.8
18.5
15.9
16.6
17.9
21.0
15.7
21.6
15.1
19.2
14.0
21.5
21.2
31.07
32.04
34.57
40.95
36.33
33.19
34.70
32.82
36.02
34.40
27.42
25.66
27.98
30.43
26.16
32.33
27.36
31.85
30.69
42.66
* DATA AS OF 11/17/2014 | YEAR-OVER-YEAR GROWTH AS OF THE MOST RECENT QUARTER ENDED. | 1DATA AS OF MOST RECENT QUARTER ENDED. | NA EQUALS DATA NOT AVAILABLE AND NM SIGNIFIES NON-MEANINGFUL DATA
SOURCE: SNL FINANCIAL
Residential
American Campus Communities (ACC)
Essex Property Trust Inc. (ESS)
Shopping Centers
Kimco Realty Corp. (KIM)
Regency Centers Corp. (REG)
Weingarten Realty Investors (WRI)
Mall
Simon Property Group (SPG)
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT)
Taubman Centers Inc. (TCO)
Self Storage
Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR)
Triple Net
National Retail Properties (NNN)
Realty Income Corp. (O)
W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC)
Data Sector
Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR)
Healthcare
Healthcare Trust of America (HTA)
HCP Inc. (HCP)
Ventas Inc. (VTR)
BioMed Realty (BMR)
Omega Healthcaree Investors (OHI)
Health Care REIT (HCN)
Industrial
Monmouth Real Estate (MNR)
SWAN Portfolio
IREITINVESTOR.COM
MARKET
CAPITALIZATION
($M)*
163
NUMBER OF
PROPERTIES
(ACTUAL)1
81
1,228
508
110
1,468
1,191
295
131
692
4,284
2,038
810
24
45
367
248
318
NA
246
OCCUPANCY RATE
(%)1
94.30
NA
NA
90.20
NA
NA
91.80
93.00
98.10
99.10
98.80
NA
89.20
97.70
NA
94.90
95.90
NA
NA
93.50
21.37
1-YR TOTAL
RETURN (%)*
28.66
25.40
24.67
16.63
17.87
16.97
22.59
53.59
7.87
18.86
16.21
39.68
16.84
9.00
27.42
25.66
27.01
21.81
29.62
52.58
71.36
166.86
38.07
52.08
36.65
NA
25.54
93.84
59.92
65.73
177.59
35.66
39.53
69.78
96.08
83.72
79.21
68.04
10.68
3-YR TOTAL
RETURN (%)*
34
35
IREITINVESTOR.COM
GLOSSARY OF TERMS:
Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO): FFO, less normalized recurring expenditures that are capitalized by the REIT and
amortized, and which are necessary to properly maintain and
lease the property (e.g. new carpeting and draperies in apartment units, leasing expenses, and tenant improvement allowances); adjustments are also made to eliminate the straight-lining of rents; which is an accounting convention.
Market Cap: The total market value of a REITs (or other companys) outstanding securities and indebtedness. For example, if
20 million shares of a REIT are trading at $20 each, 1 million
shares of the REITs preferred stock are trading at $25 each,
and the REIT has $100 million of debt, its market cap would
be $525 million ($400 million in common stock, $25 million in
preferred stock, and $100 million in indebtedness).
Cash Flow: With reference to a property (or group of properties), the owners rental revenues from the property minus all
property operating expenses, including property management
expenses, utility costs and property taxes. The term ignores
depreciation and amortization expenses and income taxes,
as well as interest on loans obtained to finance the property.
Sometimes used interchangeably with net operating income or
EBITDA.
Cost of Capital: The cost to a company, such as a REIT, of
raising capital in the form of equity (common or preferred stock)
or debt. The cost of equity capital should take into account
the dilution of the interests of the existing equity holders in
the company. The cost of debt capital is merely the interest
expense on the debt incurred.
Funds from Operations (FFO): Net income (determined in accordance with GAAP), excluding gains or losses from debt restructuring and sales of property, plus depreciation of real property, and
after adjustments for unconsolidated entities, such as partnerships
and joint ventures, in which the REIT holds and interest.
Total Return: A stocks dividend income plus capital appreciation, before taxes and commissions. For example, if a stock
rises 4% in price and provides a 4% dividend yield during the
measurement period, the investors total return would be 8%.
Interest Coverage Ratio: In REIT world, the ratio of a REITs operating income (before amortization, depreciation, income taxes and
interest expense) to total interest expense for any particular period. This ratio measures the extent to which interest expense on
outstanding debt is covered by existing cash flow.
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This newsletter is intended to provide information to interested parties. As I have no knowledge of your individual circumstances, goals and/or portfolio
concentration or diversification, readers are expected to complete their own due diligence before purchasing any stocks mentioned or recommended.
Brad Thomas is a financial columnist and REIT expert with more than 25 years of experience in the investment industry. He is ranked
#1 in both REITs and Finance on the Seeking Alpha website (Seeking Alpha is the leading website and social network for business
analysis, vibrant investment discussion, and financial opinion. Reaching over 10 million monthly uniques, and published more than
250 opinion articles daily, giving a voice to over 7,000 contributors, while connecting executives and financial experts from around
the world). He also contributes frequently for The Street, The Motley Fool, and Forbes.com. He is also published in Forbes Magazine,
Kiplinger, Barrons, and The Institutional Investor. He has many quoted in many leading publications and he has been seen on Fox
Business. Thomas is also editor of The Intelligent REIT Investor, a subscription-based newsletter.
DISCLOSURE: BRAD THOMAS AND/OR HIS FAMILY OWNS THE FOLLOWING REIT SECURITIES: O, DLR, VTR, HTA, STAG, CSG, GPT, ROIC, HCN, OHI, LXP, KIM, DOC, EXR.