15th ELECTRICITY FORUM OF THE ENERGY COMMUNITY

ATHENS
Results of the Analysis of the Forecast Periods for Southeast
Europe Coordination Initiative Study on Transmission Planning
and Uncertainties (2015-2020)
Robert F. Ichord, Jr., Ph.D.
Chief, Energy and Infrastructure
Jamshid Heidarian, Ph.D.
Senior Energy Advisor
US Agency for International Development
Europe and Eurasia Bureau
on behalf of SECI-TPWG

November 26, 2009

SECI TSP Goals

Promote Regional Transmission Planning Among
Southeast Europe TSOs
Harmonize Transmission Planning Principles,
Methods and Methodologies
Identify Priority Investments in Transmission
Systems & Interconnections

SECI TSP Objectives

Create Sustainable International Expert
Transmission Planning Working Group (WG)
Support Common Planning Software Platform
(PSS/E)
Analyze Regional System to Identify Bottlenecks
Identify Potential Transmission Investments
Needed to Enhance Trade
Promote Analytical Results To Policy &
Regulatory Authorities
3

SECI TSP Governance & Operation

MOU
Steering Committee
Working Group - 2 participants from each TSO
Project Technical Coordinator: MEPSO
USAID & USEA Provide Technical, Financial &
Admin Support
TSOs Cost Share
Model Integrator & Analytical Support:

Electricity Coordination Center of Belgrade

Energy Institute of Croatia
4

SECI TSP Project Participants

Albania -- Transmission System and Market Operator

Bosnia and Herzegovina -- Independent System Operator in
Bosnia and Herzegovina -- Electricity Transmission Company of
Croatia -- HEP Transmission System Operator LLC
Kosovo Transmission System and Market Operator (KOSTT)
Macedonia Macedonia Transmission System Operator
Montenegro AD Prenos
Romania Transelectrica
Serbia JP Elektromereza Srbjie (EMS)
Italy TERNA (observer)
Slovenia Elektro Slovenia (observer)
Turkey Turkish Electricity Transmission Company (observer) 5

Overview
HISTORY
Southeast Europe Cooperation Initiative 1998
Regional Transmission System Planning Project 2001
Models for 2005, 2010, 2015 AND 2020: PSS/E Format, Steady
State, Dynamic, Short Circuit (Winter Peak, Summer Off-Peak)
Studies
Regional Electricity Interconnection Study 2002
Generation Investment Study (GIS): PSS/E Analysis and
Results 2004
Transmission Network Investment Criteria 2007
Evaluation Of Investments In Transmission Network to
Sustain Generation and Market Development In SEE 2007

Transmission Network Planning

VERTICALLY INTEGRATED UTILITIES

INTEGRATED PRODUCTION, TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

PLANNING

OPTIMIZATION ON NATIONAL LEVEL

AVAILABLE DATA

UNCERTAINTIES (LOAD GROWTH, HYDROLOGY, GENERATORS AND

NETWORK AVAILABILITY)

OPEN MARKET ENVIRONMENT

REGULATED TRANSMISSION ACTIVITIES

SEPARATED COMPANIES

MARKET TRANSACTIONS (UNPREDICABLE FOR A LONG-TIME FRAME)

SECURITY VS. ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY

PLANNING ABOVE NATIONAL LEVEL (COORDIATION BETWEEN TSOs)

UNCERTAINTIES (POWER PLANTS CONSTRUCTION AND DISPATCH,

ELECTRICITY PRICES, MARKET TRANSACTIONS, REGULATORY
REQUESTS, ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES etc.)
7

Transmission Network Planning

EXPERIENCES IN THE SEE
9 TSOs
National Grid Codes
Lack of Regional Grid Code
Different Planning Criteria (Harmonization Is Needed)
Market Issues - Not Satisfactory Treated
PLANNING CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGY
Mostly Used (N-1) Technical Criterion
Lack of Economic Criteria
Power System Simulations, Multi-scenario Analyses
SECI Study Transmission Network Investment Criteria
Suggestion Of Common Technical And Economic Criteria From
Regional Perspective
Transmission Projects Prioratization From Regional Perspective
8

Uncertainties in SEE Transmission Network

12

THE MOST IMPORTANT

UNCERTAINTIES:

What is the most influential uncertainty

in your country related to a
transmission network planning?

Unknown Power Plants

Size And Locations
Load Growth
Wind Farms
Future Market
Transactions
Unknown Generators
Dispatch
Electricity Price

No of answers

10
8
6
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Study on Uncertainties in the SEE

Transmission System
Objectives:
Identify Most Important Uncertainties in Each SEE Country
Analyze & Evaluate Impact of Different Uncertainties on
Planned Transmission Investments and SEE Transmission
System
Scenarios (73):
Power Plants Construction Plan
Connection of Italian Market With SEE Market
Connection of Turkish Market With SEE Market
Individual Countries Power Balance
Branches And Generators Availability
Planning Time Frame

10

Transmission Planning Uncertainties Contd

COUNTRIES POWER BALANCE:

ALBANIA (ZERO BALANCE,
EXPORT)
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA (ZERO
BALANCE, EXPORT)
BULGARIA (ZERO BALANCE,
EXPORT)
CROATIA (ZERO BALANCE, IMPORT)
MACEDONIA (ZERO BALANCE,
IMPORT)
MONTENEGRO (IMPORT, EXPORT)
ROMANIA (ZERO BALANCE,
EXPORT)
SERBIA (ZERO BALANCE, IMPORT)

SLOVENIA (ZERO BALANCE, EXPORT)

TURKEY (IMPORT, EXPORT)
UNMIK (ZERO BALANCE, EXPORT)

11

Transmission Planning Uncertainties Contd

IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTIES ON TRANSMISSION INVESTMENTS 2015:
Critical element
Line 220 kV Dunamenti - Martonvasar (HU)
Tie-line 220 kV Divaca (SI) - Padriciano (IT)
Tie-line 220 kV Pehlin (HR) - Divaca (SI)
Transformer 400/220 kV in Trebinje (BA)
Transformer 400/220 kV in Pljevlja (ME)
Tie-line 220 kV Trebinje (BA) - Perucica (ME)
Line 220 kV Zakucac - Konjsko (HR)
Line 220 kV Zakucac - Imotski (HR)
Tie-line 220 kV Fierza (AL) - Prizren (RS)
Transformer 400/220 kV in Sibiu (RO)
Line 220 kV Lotru - Sibiu (RO)
Line 220 kV Beograd 8 - Beograd 17 (RS)
Transformer 400/220 in Maritsa East
Line 400 kV Sajoszoged - Detk (HU)
Tie-line 400 kV Melina (HR) - Divaca (SI)
Line 220 kV Dobrudzha - Madara (BG)
Line 220 kV Focsani Vest - Barbosi (RO)
Transformer 400/220 in Rosiori (RO)
Line 220 kV Ungheni - Iernut (RO)
Line 400 kV Constanza - Cernavoda (RO)
Line 400 kV Tantareni - Turceni (RO)
Line 220 kV Orlovac - Konjsko (HR)
Line 220 kV Elbasan - Cekin (AL)

Base
case
X
X

Power plants construction uncertainties

Connection to Italian/Turkish market

uncertainties

TPP
Kosovo

AL - IT

ME - IT

HR - IT

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X
X

X
X

NPP
Krsko 2
X
X
X

HPP
Kozjak
X
X

WPP
X
X

Power balance uncertainties for the territories

RO - TR AL BG BA HR MK ME RO RS
X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X
X
X

X
X

X
X
X
X
X
X
X

12

SI
X
X

TR UNMIK
X
X
X

X
X

Transmission Planning Uncertainties Contd

IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTIES ON TRANSMISSION INVESTMENTS 2020:
Critical element
Line 220 kV Dunamenti - Martonvasar (HU)
Tie-line 220 kV Divaca (SI) - Padriciano (IT)
Tie-line 220 kV Pehlin (HR) - Divaca (SI)
Transformer 400/220 kV in Trebinje (BA)
Transformer 400/220 kV in Pljevlja (ME)
Tie-line 220 kV Trebinje (BA) - Perucica (ME)
Line 220 kV Zakucac - Konjsko (HR)
Line 220 kV Zakucac - Imotski (HR)
Tie-line 220 kV Fierza (AL) - Prizren (RS)
Transformer 400/220 kV in Sibiu (RO)
Line 220 kV Lotru - Sibiu (RO)
Line 220 kV Beograd 8 - Beograd 17 (RS)
Transformer 400/220 in Maritsa East
Line 400 kV Sajoszoged - Detk (HU)
Tie-line 400 kV Melina (HR) - Divaca (SI)
Line 220 kV Dobrudzha - Madara (BG)
Line 220 kV Focsani Vest - Barbosi (RO)
Transformer 400/220 in Rosiori (RO)
Line 220 kV Ungheni - Iernut (RO)
Line 400 kV Constanza - Cernavoda (RO)
Line 400 kV Tantareni - Turceni (RO)
Line 220 kV Orlovac - Konjsko (HR)
Line 220 kV Elbasan - Cekin (AL)

Base
case

Power plants construction uncertainties

Connection to Italian/Turkish market

uncertainties

TPP
Kosovo

WPP

AL - IT

ME - IT

HR - IT

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X
X

X
X

X
X

NPP
Krsko 2
X
X

HPP
Kozjak
X

Power balance uncertainties for the territories

RO - TR AL BG BA HR MK ME RO RS

SI

TR UNMIK

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X
X

13

Transmission Planning Uncertainties Contd

THE MOST CRITICAL LINES AND
TRANSFORMERS IN THE REGION
OHL 220 kV DIVACA (SLO) PADRICIANO (I)
OHL 220 kV PEHLIN (HR) DIVAA (SLO)
TR 400/220 kV TREBINJE
OHL 220 kV ZAKUCAC (HR) IMOTSKI (HR)/RAMA
(BIH)
TR 400/220 kV MARITZA
OHL 400 kV CONSTANTA CERNAVODA
TR 400/220 kV ROSIORI
OHL 220 kV UNGEHENI - IERNUT

14

Conclusions
20000
18000
16000

SEE REGIONAL TRANSMISSION

SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT:

Interconnection capacities (MVA)

STRONG INTERCONNECTIONS
EVEN TODAY

CONGESTION MANAGEMENT
COORDINATED AUCTIONING
HIGHER NTC VALUES

INTERNAL NETWORK
REINFORCEMENTS

NEW PROJECTS IF TECHNICALLY

AND ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE

STRONGER REGULATORY
AGENCIES

Production capacities (MW)

Peak load (MW)

14000
MVA or MW

12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000

re
ec
e
G

un
ga
r
H

Bo
sn
ia

an
d

Al
ba
ni
H
a
er
ze
go
vi
na
Bu
lg
ar
ia
C
ro
at
ia
FY
R
O
M
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on
te
ne
gr
o
R
om
an
Se
ia
rb
ia
+U
N
M
IK
Sl
ov
en
ia
Au
st
ria

INDEPENDENT TSOs
COORDINATION IN PLANNING
HARMONIZATION OF PLANNING
STANDARDS

15

Black Sea Regional Transmission Planning

Project
Electro Power System Operator of Armenia
Energy Institute of Armenia
Electricity System Operator -- ESO EAD Bulgaria
Georgian State Electrosystem (GSE)
Moldelectrica
Transelectrica
System Operator United Power System of Russia
Turkish Electricity Transmission Company
National Electric Company Ukrenergo
United States Agency for International Development
United States Energy Association

16

Black Sea Regional Transmission Planning

Project
EST
LAT
LIT
BLR
POL

RUS

SVK
HUN
SCG
MKD
GRE

UKR
ROM
BUL

MLD

Modeled
Black Sea
TUR

GEO
ARM AZB

Equivalented

17

Black Sea Regional Transmission

Planning Project
High voltage network-transmission network
750kV,500kV,400kV,330kV,220kV,150kV,110kV
network
Generator units at their nominal voltage level
Step-up transformers for main generation
capacities
All new substations and lines that are expected to
be operational till 2020 (according to the long
term development plans)
Development of Regional model Guidelines
18

Black Sea Regional Transmission Planning

Project
Load flow Model development
2010 Winter peak,
2010 Summer off-peak
2010 Summer peak
2015 Winter peak
2015 Summer peak
2015 Summer off-peak
2020 Winter peak
2020 Summer peak
2020 Summer off-peak

19

Black Sea Regional Transmission Planning

Project
Evaluation of network transfer capabilities
ETSO methodology used
Identify the existing potential for electric power
trade in the region
Verify values through dynamic analyses
Critical regimes (exchange)
Select outage to investigate
Monitor machines
20

Black Sea Regional Transmission Planning

Working Group

Network Models Developed According to the Long Term National

Development Plans

Annual Updates Based on Significant Changes in the National

Economies

BSTP WG Developed Strong Analysis Skills and Accurate Tools

For Assessing the Efficiency of Investments, not only from
National Points Of View, but from a Regional Point of View

Completed Network Models for Middle And Long Term Horizons,

for both Steady State and Dynamic Stability Analysis

High Level Expertise Regarding Possible Transfer Scenarios and

21
Technical Conditions for Market Based Transactions